成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：下游开工深入淡季 宏观支撑价格高位 投资咨询业务资格： 以伊冲突 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 晨报 铝锭 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 26 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 ...

英国央行货币政策动态成为驱动英镑走势的核心引擎。12月18日，英国央行宣布年内第四次降息，将基 准利率下调25个基点至3.75%，2025年累计降息幅度达100个基点，基准利率从年初的4.75%逐步回落。 值得关注的是，此次降息决策分歧巨大，货币政策委员会9名委员中仅5人支持降息，另有4人因通胀仍 高于2%的目标而主张维持利率不变，这种"鹰鸽对立"的格局向市场传递出政策宽松不会过度激进的信 号，有效支撑了英镑汇率。 截至2025年12月26日，英镑兑美元汇率报1.3518，微跌0.0370%，当日最高触及1.3522，最低下探 1.3497，延续近期强势格局。回溯近期走势，该货币对于12月23日上涨0.3%至1.3502，创下10月2日以 来新高，随后成功站稳1.35关键关口，年内累计涨幅已超8%，表现显著跑赢多数非美货币。此次英镑 走强，核心源于英国央行货币政策的谨慎态度与内部分歧，叠加美元指数持续走弱的外部助力，短期上 行势头明确。 对于后续走势，市场焦点将集中于两大方向：一是英国的通胀数据（尤其是薪资与服务业通胀）及经济 复苏信号，这将直接影响英国央行的政策路径调整；二是美联储的货币政策动向与美国经济表 ...

埃及央行表示，将继续密切监测经济和金融形势，引导通胀率在2026年第四季度达到7%，允许其上下 浮动2个百分点。 埃及央行在一份声明中说，这一决定反映了货币政策委员会对通胀状况和预期的最新评估。根据埃及央 行此前发布的报告，受食品价格上涨放缓影响，埃及2025年11月通胀率小幅下降至12.3%。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:王萌萌】 新华社开罗12月25日电（记者张健）埃及中央银行25日宣布将基准利率下调100个基点，调整后的隔夜 贷款利率和隔夜存款利率分别为21%和20%。这是埃及央行今年第五次降息。 ...

宏观层面，外盘圣诞休市对市场指引作用有限，不过美联储降息预期为市场带来周期性支撑。同 时，"去美元化"趋势延续，临近岁末，人民币开启强势升值行情。12 月 25 日，离岸人民币对美元率先 升破 7.02 关口，为 2024 年 10 月以来首次；在岸人民币对美元日内也升破 7.03 关口，上涨近百点，极 大提振了市场多头情绪。此外，国内央行货币政策委员会第四季度例会明确，将继续实施适度宽松的货 币政策，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，充分发挥货币政策工具总量和结构双重功能，强化货币与财政 政策协同配合，以促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升。这些举措有助于稳固市场消费信心，推动经济协 调发展，为金属市场提供了有力支撑。 基本面，国内年底消费仍有韧性、铝锭库存仍处低位。尽管电解铝运行产能略有增加，但近期进口量下 降，供应总体变化不大。现货市场上，年底封账结算使得不少持货商选择不出货或等待后市，而下游因 恐高情绪升温，仅维持最低程度的刚需采购，消费量难以弥补出货缺口，整体出货者居多，现货贴水面 临进一步走阔压力。但市场也不乏存在追涨和节前补货的情况，使得整体现货采买维持在较为温和的水 平。 综合来看，国内市场氛围偏暖，政策 ...

Group 1: Inflation Data - Tokyo's core CPI rose by 2.3% year-on-year in December, which is a significant slowdown from the previous month's 2.8% and below the market expectation of 2.5% [6][7] - This marks the first inflation slowdown since August, primarily reflecting a deceleration in food price increases and a decline in energy costs [7] - Excluding fresh food, food prices in Tokyo increased by 6.2% year-on-year, down from 6.5% in the previous month [8] Group 2: Energy Prices - Tokyo's energy prices fell by 3.4% year-on-year in December, contrasting with a 2.6% increase in the previous month [10] - Electricity prices decreased by 2.5%, city gas prices dropped by 4.7%, and gasoline prices fell by 6.4% compared to the same month last year [10] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Japan's industrial output fell by 2.6% in November, reversing a 1.5% increase in October, which was worse than the expected decline of 1.8% [11] - Despite the decline, companies expect output to rebound, forecasting a 1.3% increase in December and a significant 8.0% rise in January [11] Group 4: Monetary Policy and Currency - The Bank of Japan raised its policy interest rate to 0.75%, the highest level in 30 years, indicating a potential for further tightening of monetary policy [13] - Despite the interest rate hike, the yen remains weak, trading near its lowest levels against the dollar, which may increase import costs and exacerbate inflationary pressures [14] - The Japanese government is prepared to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary, as indicated by recent statements from officials [15] Group 5: Fiscal Policy - The Japanese cabinet approved a record budget of 122.3 trillion yen (approximately $785 billion) for the next fiscal year, aiming to balance active fiscal policies with concerns over rising debt [16] - The government has assured investors that it will not engage in irresponsible debt issuance or tax cuts amid rising national debt yields and a weak yen [16]

投资咨询业务资格:证监证可【2012】31号 | | 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 | | 期货执业证号:F3074875; 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 | | | 2025/12/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动(bp) | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 (bp) | | | DRO01 | 1.26 | -0.24 | DR007 | 1.48 | 10.14 | | | GC001 | 1.35 | -41.50 | GC007 | 1.87 | -1.00 | | S | SHBOR 3M | 1.60 | 0.00 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | 1 | 1年期国债 | 1.28 | -0.70 | 5年期国债 | 1.58 | -0.20 | | 1 | 10年期国债 | 1.81 | -3.90 | 10年期美债 | 4.13 | 0.00 | | 2 | | | | | | | 回顾: 央行昨日开展了1771亿元7天期逆回购操作,操作利率1.40 ...

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the Q3 2025 US GDP grew at an annualized rate of +4.3%, significantly exceeding Bloomberg analysts' consensus expectation of +3.3% and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate of +3.5% [1][7] - The strong consumer spending and reduced inventory drag were the main contributors to this growth, with inventory changes being the largest marginal contributor to the acceleration in GDP growth [1][7] - Despite the strong GDP data, the market's initial reaction suggested overheating, leading to a temporary cooling of interest rate cut expectations, which later reversed as asset prices adjusted [1][8] - Looking ahead, the report anticipates a significant cooling in Q4 2025 GDP growth due to government shutdown impacts, with short-term interest rate cut expectations depending on upcoming employment and inflation data [1][8] Fixed Income - The report notes that during the week of December 15-19, 2025, the yield on the 10-year government bond rose slightly from 1.8425% to 1.835% [2][9] - It emphasizes that the bond market's response to economic data has been muted, reflecting a focus on policy expectations rather than fundamental economic performance [9] - The report suggests that while there is limited immediate need for significant liquidity release through reserve requirement cuts, the possibility of easing policies in early 2026 remains [11] Industry Insights - Jiufeng Energy is focusing on expanding its commercial aerospace special gas market share through the development of its launch site and partnerships with rocket companies [19][20] - The company has completed the first phase of its Hainan commercial aerospace launch site project, with core products undergoing multiple launch validations, indicating a strong operational track record [19][20] - Jiufeng Energy's profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 1.56 billion, 1.80 billion, and 2.13 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 18.0, 15.6, and 13.2 [19][20]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monetary policy adjustments to address the structural imbalance of "strong supply and weak demand" in the economy, indicating a shift towards a more coordinated and forward-looking approach in policy implementation [17] International News - The U.S. government has announced a delay in imposing additional tariffs on Chinese chips for at least 18 months, signaling an effort to stabilize U.S.-China relations [11] - Japan has revised its economic growth forecast for the fiscal year 2025 to 1.1%, up from 0.7%, due to lower-than-expected negative impacts from U.S. tariffs [11] - Israeli officials have indicated potential military conflict with Iran, focusing on Iran's efforts to rebuild its ballistic missile arsenal [11] Domestic News - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has released 30 billion yuan in medium-term liquidity through MLF and reverse repos, with a total net injection of 49.61 billion yuan for the year [13] - Hainan Free Trade Port reported over 400 million yuan in zero-tariff imports during its first week of closure, demonstrating a positive impact on the consumer market [14] - The Shanghai government has issued measures to support the G60 Science and Technology Corridor, including financial support for aerospace industry development [14] - Guangzhou has introduced 18 measures to support the gaming and esports industry, with individual companies eligible for up to 10 million yuan in financial support [15] Company Updates - Xiaomi held a product launch event, introducing the Xiaomi 17 Ultra with a starting price of 6,999 yuan, and reported cumulative deliveries of over 500,000 units for its automotive division [16] - Samsung plans to launch its own GPU integrated into the Exynos 2800 chip by 2027, joining a select group of companies capable of designing GPUs [16] - Dyson has made significant changes to its family wealth management structure, transferring at least 624 million pounds to a Singapore holding company [16] - Yichang Technology signed a share transfer agreement to transfer 25.33% of its shares to a partner for 850 million yuan [16] - Zhongwei Co. has entered a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Xinwanda Power Technology to collaborate on solid-state battery technology [16] - Zhongding Co. is establishing a joint venture for humanoid robot manufacturing with two other companies [16]

Core Viewpoint - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) has remained unchanged for seven consecutive months, reflecting a stable macroeconomic environment and reduced reliance on short-term stimulus policies [3][4]. Group 1: Economic Environment - The current macroeconomic environment shows strong growth resilience, with exports performing better than expected and new productivity sectors developing rapidly, indicating that the need for aggressive counter-cyclical adjustments has diminished [3]. - The central economic work conference has emphasized the flexible and efficient use of various policy tools, suggesting that monetary policy will actively support growth targets [4][8]. Group 2: Future LPR Adjustments - Although the LPR has been stable, there is still potential for future adjustments, particularly in the first quarter of 2026, as the central bank may implement new rounds of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts or interest rate reductions [4][6]. - The timing for potential LPR cuts is likely around the Chinese New Year, a critical period for policy measures aimed at stabilizing expectations and promoting consumption [6]. Group 3: Rationale for Potential LPR Cuts - Four key reasons support the possibility of LPR cuts: 1. Clear national policy direction provides operational space for interest rate reductions [8]. 2. The need to maintain a healthy yield curve due to significant government bond issuance this year [8]. 3. The LPR pricing mechanism has room for transmission, as liquidity has been injected into the banking system, lowering funding costs [8]. 4. Balancing market supply and demand with risk pricing is essential, as adjustments must consider both promoting lower financing costs and maintaining financial system stability [8]. Group 4: Benefits of LPR Cuts - A reduction in LPR would lower costs for homebuyers, boosting confidence in the housing market and stabilizing expectations [9][12]. - It would also decrease financing costs for the real economy, particularly benefiting small and medium-sized enterprises and sectors related to new productivity [12]. - Overall, LPR cuts could help stabilize and boost the macroeconomy by increasing disposable income and enhancing consumption willingness, thereby driving total demand [12].

Group 1 - The offshore RMB to USD exchange rate has surpassed the 7.0 mark, reaching a high of 6.9985, marking the first time since September 2024 that both offshore and onshore RMB have crossed significant thresholds [1] - The overall trend for the offshore RMB against the USD in 2025 has shown a pattern of "initial suppression followed by recovery and oscillation," indicating a clear appreciation trend [1] - The recent appreciation of the RMB is attributed to a weaker USD, a decline in the USD index, strong fundamentals from the Chinese economy, and year-end demand for currency settlement [2] Group 2 - The interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have led to a recovery in the China-US interest rate differential, supporting the continued mild appreciation of the RMB [2] - The People's Bank of China has emphasized maintaining the RMB exchange rate stability at a reasonable and balanced level, indicating a focus on monetary policy adjustments to support this goal [4] - The offshore RMB's appreciation is expected to have a positive impact on the capital markets, enhancing the risk appetite for Chinese equities and increasing foreign investment in RMB-denominated assets [3] Group 3 - The appreciation of the offshore RMB is expected to have a mixed impact on trade, reducing import costs for commodities while potentially weakening the competitiveness of export-oriented goods [2] - The central bank's recent meetings have highlighted the importance of using various monetary policy tools to ensure liquidity and stabilize the RMB exchange rate [4] - Market participants are advised to be cautious of unilateral exchange rate fluctuations and consider using financial instruments to hedge against short-term volatility [3]