Report Title - "2025 December Inflation Data Review: Steady Price Recovery and Policy Room" [1] Report Date - January 9, 2026 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Nominal GDP growth rate may be an important indicator for interest rate cuts [1][3] - Demand - side policies still have room to play in 2026, and monetary policy may be the focus of incremental policies [3] - It is expected that there may be two 10BP policy interest rate cuts in monetary policy this year [3] Summary by Content Inflation Data in December 2025 - CPI year - on - year increase widened to 0.8%, food prices rose 1.1%, non - food prices rose 0.8%, consumer goods prices rose 1.0%, and service prices rose 0.6% [3] - Among the eight categories of prices, the year - on - year increases of food, tobacco and alcohol, household goods and services, education, culture and entertainment, healthcare, and other goods and services expanded compared with November; the year - on - year increases of clothing, housing, and transportation and communication shrank (or the year - on - year declines expanded) [3] - PPI monthly increase widened and year - on - year decline narrowed, indicating that the recovery of upstream prices was transmitted to downstream as policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption continued to show effects [3] - Core CPI continued to stabilize and recover, with a year - on - year increase of 1.2%, and the increase was basically the same as the previous month [3] - Food price year - on - year increase expanded to 1.1%, higher than the increase of edible agricultural product prices, and there may be room for further expansion [3] - Rent CPI monthly decline narrowed, and year - on - year decline slightly expanded, reflecting that the supply and demand of urban housing may still be in a balanced state [3] Monetary Policy Outlook - The Central Economic Work Conference in 2025 required that promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery be important considerations for monetary policy, and flexibly and efficiently use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts to maintain sufficient liquidity [3] - Considering the requirements of stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, nominal GDP growth rate may become an important reference for monetary policy [3] - In 2025, China's GDP had ideal real growth in the first half of the year and good price recovery in the second half, but the two did not show a trend of strengthening simultaneously. So, demand - side policies still have room to play in 2026, and monetary policy may be the focus of incremental policies [3] - It is expected that there may be two 10BP policy interest rate cuts in monetary policy this year. If the Q4 2025 economic data shows that the nominal GDP year - on - year growth rate is stronger than 3.7% in Q3, the interest rate cut may be later; if it is lower than 3.7%, an interest rate cut in the near future cannot be ruled out [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Composite Index continues to rise, surpassing the 4100 mark, driven by policy support, improved liquidity, and heightened expectations for earnings reports [3][7]. Market Performance - The four major stock index futures have also increased, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 futures rising over 2% during the session [3][7]. - Market turnover has significantly rebounded, maintaining above 2.5 trillion yuan for four consecutive days as of January 8, indicating increased trading confidence [3][7]. - The margin trading balance has seen heightened activity, surpassing 2.6 trillion yuan for the first time on January 7 [3][7]. Influencing Factors - The market is currently influenced by three main factors: policy-driven support, improved liquidity, and rising expectations for earnings reports [3][7]. - The central bank has indicated a continuation of moderately loose monetary policy, enhancing expectations for liquidity benefits [3][7]. - The upcoming annual report announcements are expected to boost performance expectations, particularly in the technology sector, coinciding with the CES 2026 event showcasing global tech giants [3][7]. Sector Focus - The technology sector is anticipated to see increased performance expectations, with key areas such as robotics, AI chips, and smart hardware becoming popular investment targets [3][7].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index has risen above 4100 points, with trading volume exceeding 3.1 trillion yuan, indicating active trading sentiment [1][7] - The People's Bank of China emphasized the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply as key points for this year's monetary policy [1][7] Economic Indicators - In December 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.8% year-on-year, while the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose by 1.2% year-on-year [2][8] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [2][8] - The stable CPI indicates a steady domestic consumption demand, providing room for maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy [2][8] Gold Market - As of the end of 2025, the total value of official gold reserves held by non-U.S. central banks is estimated at approximately $3.93 trillion, surpassing the total value of U.S. Treasury securities held by these countries, which is about $3.88 trillion [2][8] - This milestone reflects a long-term trend of diversification in foreign exchange reserve assets among central banks, providing solid support for long-term demand for gold [3][9] Stock Market Performance - On January 9, 2026, the A-share market saw all three major indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4120.43 points, up 0.92% [4][10] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.15% to 14120.15 points, while the ChiNext Index increased by 0.77% to 3327.81 points [4][10] - Among the sectors, media, comprehensive, and defense industries showed significant gains, with increases of 5.31%, 3.60%, and 3.29% respectively [4][10] Fund Tracking - The market turnover reached 31,525.96 billion yuan, an increase from the previous trading day [5][11] - The margin trading balance reported at 26,206.09 billion yuan, also showing an increase compared to the previous day [5][11]

Group 1 - Gold and silver prices have declined due to a stronger US dollar and profit-taking by investors, which has reduced the purchasing power of overseas buyers [1] - The strengthening of the dollar has made commodities priced in dollars more expensive for international buyers, further suppressing demand [1] - The market is anticipating the release of US non-farm payroll data, which is expected to provide more insights into the direction of monetary policy [2] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices rebounded from daily lows as traders increased long positions, with a key resistance level at $4500 [3] - Silver prices are under pressure as the gold-silver ratio rises above 58.00, and a drop below $74.00 could open up further downside towards the support range of $70.20-$70.80 [3] - Platinum prices have rebounded from daily lows due to buying interest, with a need to reclaim $2265 for sustainable upward momentum, and a potential target of $2450 if prices rise above $2300 [3]

Group 1 - The current trading price of silver TD is above 18457, with a recent opening at 18245 and a current report of 18597, reflecting a decrease of 2.54% [1] - The highest price reached today was 18872, while the lowest was 17830, indicating a short-term volatile trading pattern [1] - The Federal Reserve Governor Milan expects a rate cut of 150 basis points this year to boost the labor market, with core inflation projected to remain around 2.3% [1] Group 2 - Silver TD prices experienced a significant drop of over 5% yesterday, continuing a downward trend for two consecutive days [2] - The one-hour MACD histogram indicates emerging bullish momentum, although prices remain below the zero line, suggesting that bearish conditions persist [2] - Key support levels for silver TD are identified between 16500 and 17500, while resistance levels are noted between 18500 and 19000 [2]

智通财经APP获悉，英国工人正面临近三年来最严峻的失业风险，预算案公布后劳动力市场的恶化趋势 很可能引起英国央行的警觉，并加剧该央行进一步降息的压力。据英国破产署的数据，截至去年12月14 日的四周内潜在裁员人数(预示未来裁员趋势的先行指标)飙升至33,392人，创下2023年初以来最高值， 也是疫情后的第二高水平。这一数据尤其令人担忧，因为历史数据显示，每年12月裁员数量通常趋于缓 和。然而，裁员形势在英国财政大臣里夫斯公布秋季预算案后于上月显著恶化。 尽管英国央行代理人网络反馈显示，企业主要通过自然减员而非主动裁员来缩减规模，但当前裁员数据 表明，越来越多企业正采取积极裁员措施。数据显示，英国2025年末收到裁员通知的人数较年内平均水 平高出近50%。 英国央行决策者小组的调查显示，企业预计2026年将进一步缩减用工规模。涵盖2025年第四季度的数据 显示，企业预测就业率将下降0.4%，创2020年以来最差纪录。 劳动力市场动荡加剧的迹象，将强化英国央行决策者在规划后续政策空间时于2026年持续降息的依据。 荷兰国际集团(ING)发达市场经济学家詹姆斯·史密斯指出："若此类数据开始攀升，将为英国央行加速 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - In 2026, fiscal policy may maintain the general deficit ratio basically stable compared to 2025, and monetary policy has room for two 10BP interest rate cuts and 1 - 2 times of 25BP reserve requirement ratio cuts. The coordinated fiscal and monetary policies have a significant impact on interest rates. The bond market in 2026 is expected to remain range - bound with band trading opportunities, especially when the 10 - year Treasury yield approaches or reaches 1.9% [3][57]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fiscal, Monetary Policy Coordination and the Bond Market Relationship - Fiscal and monetary policy coordination is crucial for bond market interest rates. An expansionary fiscal policy shifts the IS curve to the right, putting upward pressure on interest rates, while an expansionary monetary policy shifts the LM curve downward, exerting downward pressure on interest rates. When both policies are implemented simultaneously, the net impact on interest rates depends on which policy is more active [11]. 2. Overall Ideas for Fiscal and Monetary Policy Coordination in 2026 - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference called for a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026. The central bank aims to promote stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, and keep the social comprehensive financing cost at a low level. The Ministry of Finance will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, focusing on improving the efficiency of fiscal funds [16][17][18]. 3. Review of China's Fiscal and Monetary Policy Coordination in 2025 - In 2025, China's fiscal policy remained strong, with the ratio of fiscal total expenditure to GDP rising again. Fiscal revenue as a share of GDP declined, including budget - internal revenue and government - funded revenue. As a result, government bond supply grew at a high rate. The monetary policy met market expectations, with a 50BP reserve requirement ratio cut and a 10BP policy interest rate cut, supporting the growth of money supply and social financing [20][23][26]. 4. Analysis of the Policy Space for Demand - Side Stimulus in China in 2026 - In 2026, demand - side policies still need to be strengthened as the nominal GDP growth slowed down in the second half of 2025, possibly due to limited demand - side support. Monetary policy still has some room for action. Low - interest rates are consistent with supporting economic growth and social financing. The 10 - year Treasury yield in the range of 1.6 - 1.9% may be the central bank's perceived balance state [30][32][35]. 5. Outlook for China's Fiscal and Monetary Policy Coordination in 2026 - Fiscal policy may keep the general deficit ratio stable, with the ratios of fiscal total expenditure and budget - internal revenue to GDP remaining stable. The decline in government - funded revenue as a share of GDP may be limited. Monetary policy is expected to be the focus of incremental policies, with two 10BP interest rate cuts and 1 - 2 times of 25BP reserve requirement ratio cuts. If only one 25BP reserve requirement ratio cut is implemented, the central bank will increase the base money supply [43][46][47]. 6. Challenges Faced by China's Bond Market: Lack of Duration Preference - As bank deposit growth slows down, the bond market faces the challenge of a lack of duration preference. The proportion of bonds held by commercial banks and insurance institutions has decreased, making it more difficult to balance the upward pressure on yields. Therefore, it is important for monetary policy to maintain interest rates in a low - level range [52][54][55]. 7. Main Conclusions - In 2026, fiscal policy may maintain the general deficit ratio stable compared to 2025, and monetary policy has room for two 10BP interest rate cuts and 1 - 2 times of 25BP reserve requirement ratio cuts. The coordinated fiscal and monetary policies have a significant impact on interest rates. The bond market in 2026 will still be affected by the lack of duration preference, but the pressure from the expected policy combination will be less than in 2025. The bond market is expected to remain range - bound with band trading opportunities, especially when the 10 - year Treasury yield approaches or reaches 1.9% [57].

Core Viewpoint - Song Yu has officially joined UBS Securities as an analyst, bringing extensive experience in macroeconomic analysis and policy evaluation, particularly regarding China's economic trends and investment strategies [1][4][6]. Group 1: Company Changes - On January 5, 2026, the securities industry system indicated that Song Yu has officially transitioned to UBS Securities [1][4]. - Previously, Song Yu held significant positions as the Chief Economist for Goldman Sachs Gao Hua Securities and BlackRock's Chief China Economist [2][5]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - As the Chief China Economist at BlackRock, Song Yu expressed a positive outlook on the Chinese economy, highlighting its strong resilience and the potential for the stock market to stabilize and recover [3][6]. - He believes there is currently an opportunity for value investment in Chinese assets, indicating a bottom-overweight situation [3][6]. - Song Yu is also monitoring the impact of U.S. Federal Reserve policies on the Chinese economy, predicting that the new chairperson, expected to be appointed in 2026, may influence decision-making [3][6].

米兰呼吁2026年降息150个基点 来源：金十数据 美国财政部长贝森特周四强烈表达了政府对降低利率的渴望，称这是未来经济增长的关键。与此同时， 美联储理事米兰呼吁2026年降息150个基点以提振就业。 贝森特将在明尼苏达经济俱乐部发表的演讲中，对特朗普的经济议程表示支持，并指出更宽松的货币政 策将为未来的收益铺平道路。 据政府内部获取的演讲摘要，贝森特表示："降息将对每一位明尼苏达人的生活产生切实影响。这是实 现更强劲经济增长的唯一缺失要素。因此，美联储不应拖延。" 美联储在2025年的最后四个月内连续批准了三次降息，共计0.75个百分点，将基准利率降至3.5%-3.75% 的区间。 然而，预计今年的降息步伐将大幅放缓。市场目前定价仅为两次降息，而美联储官员的最新预测则指向 仅有一次。 这一局面的一个变数是美联储今年将迎来一位新主席，贝森特正负责这一遴选过程。现任主席鲍威尔的 任期将于5月结束，财长已将候选人名单缩减至五人。 虽然低利率可能带来通胀重燃的风险，但也可能有助于支撑放缓的劳动力市场。 贝森特表示："2025年，特朗普总统通过历史性地通过'大而美法案'（One Big Beautiful Bill） ...

今日周五(1月9日)亚盘时段，国际黄金目前交投于1006元/克附近，截至发稿，国际黄金最新报1003.84 元/克，跌幅0.11%，最高上探至1006.28元/克，最低触及999.35元/克。目前来看，国际黄金短线偏向震 荡走势。 摘要今日周五(1月9日)亚盘时段，国际黄金目前交投于1006元/克附近，截至发稿，国际黄金最新报 1003.84元/克，跌幅0.11%，最高上探至1006.28元/克，最低触及999.35元/克。目前来看，国际黄金短线 偏向震荡走势。 在最近三次会议累计降息0.75个百分点后，美联储内部对今年降息幅度仍有分歧，部分官员倾向在数据 进一步明确前维持利率不变。米兰自去年9月起休长假担任美联储理事，任期将于本月结束，未来是否 留任尚未确定。外界预计特朗普可能利用该席位提名新主席，而鲍威尔5月任期结束后或另有一席空 缺。 【最新黄金行情解析】 黄金目前在日线走势上继续维持在高位震荡偏强一些的走势中，日线连续留下较长的下影线短周期均线 继续勾头向上发散，K线也继续在短周期均线上运行在日线走势上可能还有延续上行的空间，短期关注 下4500一带的压力带。4小时级别走势上技术形态开始逐步调整完成， ...