gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn (原油) 周末消息称乌军袭击了一座位于里海菲拉诺夫斯基油气田的油气钻井平台,该平台隶属俄罗斯卢克 石油公司，负责石油和天然气生产。关于该平台的受损程度和后续运行能力尚待评估。原油市场潜 在利好依然围绕在委内瑞拉和俄乌地缘问题上,在地缘风险进一步发酵前，已经对她缘风险升温定 价后的油价重回承压状态。 (责金属) 上周美国非农印证就业下行风险,核心CPI则创2021年3月以来新低,数据整体有利于降息的延续。 俄乌和平谈判进展缓慢，俄官员称俄美乌三方会谈尚未提上日程。以色列和伊朗间再现紧张氛围。 贵金属偏强趋势维持,黄金在历史高位测试阻力,如能实现突破则责金属表现有望强化。 【铜】 上周五铜价阳线震荡，短期均线支撑韧性强，仓量仍易支持涨势。明年一季度全球精矿供应难以明 显复供，国内统厂加工费长单0水平。周内关注国内现铜及升贴水变动，上周上海贴水160元，广东 升水仅余20元。市场高持仓,跨年多配冲高潜力仍在，少量多单依托9.2万持有。 (铝) 周五夜盘有色整体强势,沪铝逼近月初高点。近期铝市矛盾有限,社库窄幅波动,表观消费尚可, 沪铝5月以来上行形态稳固,短 ...

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CAD exchange rate is experiencing fluctuations due to diverging monetary policies between the US and Canada, alongside low oil prices, mixed economic data, and geopolitical risks, leading to an unclear short-term direction [1][2]. Monetary Policy Divergence - The Bank of Canada maintained its interest rate at 2.25% on December 10, signaling a halt in rate cuts after four reductions this year, with a neutral to hawkish stance supported by a 2.6% annualized GDP growth in Q3 and a drop in unemployment to 6.5% with 53,000 new jobs added in November [1]. - In contrast, the Federal Reserve lowered its rate to 3.6% on December 11, marking its third cut of the year, with a dovish outlook from Chairman Powell and rising risks in the US labor market, leading to market expectations of further easing by 2026 [1]. Economic Data Disparity - US economic indicators show a mixed picture, with existing home sales rising by 0.5% in November, but consumer confidence slightly declining, and inflation expectations increasing to 4.2% [2]. - Canadian economic data is less supportive for the CAD, with retail sales falling by 0.2% in October and core retail sales down by 0.6%, although the CPI rose by 2.2% year-on-year in November, providing some support for the central bank's policy [2]. Commodity Influence on CAD - The CAD is negatively impacted by declining oil prices, which have dropped by 15.2% in 2025, affecting Canadian crude export revenues and consequently pressuring the CAD against the USD [2]. - Geopolitical factors, including US sanctions on Venezuela and Russia, have heightened supply concerns, increasing demand for the USD as a safe haven and further suppressing the CAD [2]. Technical Analysis - The USD/CAD pair is currently in a bearish trend, with the price consistently closing below key moving averages and facing resistance above 1.3800, indicating potential for further declines [2]. - Technical indicators such as MACD and RSI suggest continued bearish momentum, with the possibility of further downside movement [2]. Short-term and Long-term Outlook - Short-term volatility is expected to remain within the range of 1.3740 to 1.3830, with support at 1.3720-1.3680 and resistance at 1.3830 and 1.3890 [3]. - Future movements will depend on the sustainability of policy divergence, oil price recovery, and the economic progress in Canada, with global uncertainties likely to exacerbate volatility [3].

1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货原油早报-2025-12-22 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 地缘风险增加，原油震荡偏强 | 备注： 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：近期中东局势再度出现波澜，以色列怀疑伊朗扩张军事力量，可能再度发起攻击，地缘 风险重新增强并盖过原油期货市场供应过剩的不利影响。目前全球原油库存不断累积，原油市场正 处在供应压力不断增大的阶段。由于短 ...

证券研究报告 原油周报：国际油价下跌，关注地缘风险 大化工首席分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 石化化工分析师：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600525070005 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2025年12月21日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 投资要点 ◼ 【美国原油】 2 ◼ 1）原油价格：本周Brent/WTI原油期货周均价分别59.9/56.1美元/桶，较上周分别-1.9/-2.0美元/桶。 ◼ 2）原油库存：美国原油总库存、商业原油库存、战略原油库存、库欣原油库存分别8.4/4.2/4.1/0.2亿桶，环比-103/- 127/+25/-74万桶。 ◼ 3）原油产量：美国原油产量为1384万桶/天，环比-1万桶/天。美国活跃原油钻机本周406台，环比-8台。美国活跃压裂 车队本周168部，环比-8部。 ◼ 4）原油需求：美国炼厂原油加工量为1699万桶/天，环比+13万桶/天；美国炼厂原油开工率为94.8%，环比+0.3pct。 ◼ 5）原油进出口量：美国原油进口量、出口量、净进口量为653/ ...

新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 12月20日，本周，现货黄金在触及历史高位后，动能有所放缓，整体呈现高位强势震荡格局。周初，金 价在突破前期高点后，并未能延续凌厉涨势，而是在获利了结和技术性卖压的双重作用下，进入 了"4335-4310美元"的核心震荡区间。昨日（周五）行情尤为典型：亚盘开盘后即出现一波技术性回 落，但随后全天基本维持在该区间内窄幅运行。尾盘虽有一波冲高至4355美元的试探，但迅速回落，最 终日线收于4337美元，形成一根高位小阳十字星。 当前全球多个地缘风险点处于高度敏感状态。周末需重点关注俄乌局势的任何新动向、中东地区（特别 是红海航运、以色列-哈马斯冲突）的潜在升级，以及美国对委内瑞拉等国的制裁动态。任何一个点在 周末出现意外升级或重大声明，都可能在周一开盘直接引发避险资金涌入，导致金价跳空高开。反之， 若出现缓和信号，则可能带来抛压。 另外，虽然处于美联储政策会议前的静默期，但若有任何美联储官员关于通胀、就业或未来降息路径的 意外评论（无论是鹰派还是鸽派）通过媒体流出，都可能迅速改变市场对2026年降息节奏的押注，从而 对美元和黄金产生即时冲击。 下周即将进入欧美圣诞假期，大部 ...

Group 1 - The main trend for silver this week remains upward, with prices overall rising and a strong attack on Wednesday leading to new highs [1] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between Ukraine and Russia, are a significant support for silver prices, as Ukrainian President Zelensky calls for international response to Russian aggression [1] - The U.S. tensions with Venezuela may also drive safe-haven demand for silver, as the Venezuelan government orders its navy to escort oil shipments, escalating confrontations with the U.S. [2] Group 2 - Silver is approaching a historical high of $66.90, and a successful breakout above this resistance could accelerate the upward trend, with the next target at $68.30 [3] - If silver fails to break the $66.90 resistance, a slight pullback may occur, but strong support at $64.32 will provide a buffer for bulls [3] - Continued buying pressure could lead to a breakthrough of $66.90, opening new upward potential, with a short-term target of $70.00 [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil price is under pressure again after pricing in the rising geopolitical risks, and potential positives in the crude oil market revolve around Venezuela and the Russia-Ukraine geopolitical issues. Precious metals maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The prices of various metals and commodities show different trends affected by supply, demand, cost, and policy factors [2][3] - The stock index shows a volatile and slightly stronger, structurally differentiated trend, and the bond futures close up across the board. Market sentiment is affected by factors such as inflation data and policy expectations [47][48] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Energy - **Crude Oil**: Venezuela temporarily avoids the full blockade by the US on sanctioned oil tankers, and its oil exports are normal. The US plans a new round of sanctions on Russia's energy industry. The oil price is under pressure again [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical changes in Russia-Ukraine and US-Venezuela affect the cost of fuel oil. High-sulfur raw material shipments may be blocked, providing short-term support, but medium-term supply pressure exists due to high inventory. Low-sulfur fuel oil production may shrink, with short-term support but a medium-term weak trend [22] - **Asphalt**: Venezuela's normal oil exports cool down the sentiment of tight asphalt raw material supply. The inventory accumulation of asphalt refineries and the lack of inventory reduction in commercial inventories lead to a lack of continuous rebound momentum [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: The US CPI and core CPI in November exceed expectations and fall to 2.7% and 2.6% respectively. Fed chair candidates think there is room for interest rate cuts, and precious metals maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The copper price shows a narrow-range fluctuation, with stable short-term moving average support. The inventory increases, and there is still potential for a multi-allocation rally [4] - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price fluctuates around 22,000 yuan. The medium-term trend is slightly stronger, and short-term bulls can hold with the 40-day line as support [5] - **Zinc**: The domestic zinc inventory decreases, while the overseas inventory rises. The short-term trend is slightly stronger, but it is under pressure in the medium term [8] - **Lead**: The lead price is constrained to operate at a low level near the cost. The support level is seen at 16,700 yuan/ton [9] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The nickel price rebounds, but the fundamentals are weak. Stainless steel sales are light, and inventory accumulates [10] - **Tin**: The tin market follows the domestic market. The market focuses on the expansion of US data center construction funds in 2026, but the growth of photovoltaic production and sales is not optimistic [11] - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese ore price rises, and the inventory is accumulating. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti-involution" [19] - **Silicon Iron**: The supply of silicon iron decreases, and the inventory rises slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti-involution" [20] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The carbonate lithium price fluctuates at a high level. The mine price is strong, and the inventory decreases. The fundamentals are strong, and the short side is at a disadvantage [12] - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures price falls below 60,000 yuan/ton. There is a strong expectation of capacity acquisition, but the reality is weak. The market is expected to fluctuate [13] - **Industrial Silicon**: The demand for industrial silicon is weak, the cost support decreases, and the upside space is limited [14] - **Urea**: India's new urea import tender boosts the domestic market. The daily production is high, and the price is strong in the short term [24] - **Methanol**: The methanol port inventory decreases, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly within a range [25] - **Pure Benzene**: The pure benzene price is weak in the short term, and the supply-demand pressure may ease. Consider a positive spread arbitrage in the medium term [26] - **Styrene**: The styrene market shows a weak downward trend due to insufficient cost support and expected supply increase [27] - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The production enterprises have weak sales and high inventory pressure. The demand is weak [28] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: The PVC price rises with macro sentiment. The supply is high, the export improves, but the domestic demand is weak. The caustic soda price fluctuates strongly with macro sentiment [29] - **PX and PTA**: The PX price rises strongly, driving the PTA up. The PX is expected to be strong in the medium term, and the PTA processing margin is expected to recover [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price rebounds due to supply contraction expectations, but it is under long-term pressure [31] - **Short Fiber and Bottle Chip**: The short fiber supply-demand weakens seasonally, and the bottle chip demand fades. The long-term pressure of overcapacity exists [32] Building Materials - **Glass**: The glass industry has inventory pressure, and the demand is insufficient. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [33] - **20 Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber**: The natural rubber supply decreases, the synthetic rubber supply increases, and the demand weakens. Consider cross-variety arbitrage [34] - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash inventory is high, the supply pressure is large, and the price is expected to fluctuate with macro sentiment [35] Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: The South American weather improves, and the market is concerned about US soybean exports and South American yields. The soybean meal price follows the US soybean price to fluctuate [36] - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: The increase in imported soybean auctions brings short-term supply pressure. The overseas palm oil inventory is high, and the short-term supply-demand is weak [37] - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: Canada raises the rapeseed ending inventory, and the price is under pressure. Keep a bearish tendency [38] - **Soybean No.1**: The soybean No.1 price falls, and the short-term supply pressure increases. Pay attention to policy performance [39] - **Corn**: The corn price shows a high-level volatile and weak trend. Pay attention to the sales progress in Northeast China and auctions [40] - **Pork**: The pork futures price is bearish before and after the Spring Festival. Pay attention to the supply and inventory reduction [40] - **Egg**: The egg futures price falls. The industry fundamentals are gradually improving, and pay attention to chicken苗 replenishment and old chicken culling [41] - **Cotton**: The cotton price fluctuates. The sales progress is fast, and the demand is stable. The industry can consider hedging [42] - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar production progress in Guangxi is slow. Pay attention to the subsequent production [43] - **Apple**: The apple demand is in the off-season, and the market is bearish. Maintain a bearish operation idea [44] - **Timber**: The timber price runs at a low level. The low inventory provides some support, and temporarily wait and see [45] - **Pulp**: The pulp price falls slightly, the port inventory decreases, and the paper mill purchases on a need basis. Temporarily wait and see or conduct short-term operations [46] Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The A-share index shows a volatile and slightly stronger, structurally differentiated trend. Pay attention to the signals from the Bank of Japan's interest rate meeting [47] - **Treasury Bond**: The treasury bond futures close up across the board. Pay attention to the impact of inflation data on interest rate cuts [48]

摘要今日周五(12月19日)亚盘时段，黄金整体维持高位小幅整理。国际金价略有回调，国内金价在窄幅 区间内波动，日内多空分歧有所加剧。当前市场核心驱动仍围绕美联储政策预期、美国CPI数据及地缘 风险展开，短期走势以区间震荡博弈为主。 经过连续数日的高位横盘，黄金很可能临近新一轮方向选择，即将突破现有震荡格局。加之昨日冲高后 承压回落，短线也存在一定下行风险。因此在保持看涨大方向的同时，操作上应适当收紧风控，防范价 格向下破位的可能。 欧盟宣布对41艘俄罗斯"影子舰队"船只实施制裁，英国同步追加24个对俄制裁对象，持续加码对俄经济 施压。 美国11月未季调核心CPI年率录得2.6%，创2021年3月以来新低，显示通胀压力进一步缓解。美联储官 员古尔斯比对此评价称，11月通胀数据表现良好，但对"前置降息"持谨慎态度，并预计政策终端利率将 远低于当前水平。 投资者可重点关注今晚21:30公布的美国GDP与PCE数据，这些数据或将进一步影响市场对美联储政策 的预期，并为短期金价波动提供新的驱动因素。 【最新伦敦金行情解析】 今日周五(12月19日)亚盘时段，黄金整体维持高位小幅整理。国际金价略有回调，国内金价在窄幅区间 ...

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela are impacting oil prices, with President Trump announcing a complete blockade of sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, demanding the return of oil assets to the U.S. This has led to a rebound in oil prices, particularly Brent crude, which has surpassed $60 per barrel [5][20][11]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Oil prices rebounded over $1 in early trading following Trump's announcement, with Brent crude recovering to above $60 per barrel [5][20]. - The U.S. sanctions and geopolitical tensions are injecting a premium into oil prices, despite the underlying supply-demand dynamics suggesting a bearish outlook in the longer term [6][21]. - The EIA reported a smaller-than-expected inventory draw of 1.27 million barrels, which contributed to a slight decline in oil prices after the initial spike [6][21]. Group 2: Geopolitical Developments - Trump has characterized the Venezuelan government as a "foreign terrorist organization" and has intensified pressure on President Maduro [11][26]. - The U.S. is preparing to impose new sanctions on Russia if President Putin does not agree to a peace deal with Ukraine, which could further influence global oil markets [10][23]. - The U.S. Navy has positioned its forces strategically in the region, indicating potential military action against Venezuela [12][27]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - Venezuela's oil production is approximately 1 million barrels per day, with exports around 700,000 barrels per day, indicating limited immediate impact on global supply despite the geopolitical tensions [5][20]. - The OPEC+ group has been gradually increasing production, with expectations that total OPEC+ supply will exceed 43.5 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of this year [8][24]. - The ongoing supply differentiation in the global oil market is evident, with countries like Iran and Venezuela increasing production despite sanctions, which could reshape the supply landscape [8][25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Overseas macro: The Fed's FOMC meeting was dovish. With the US economy and inflation on a downward trend, the soft - landing trade driven by liquidity has further heated up. The SEP shows an upward adjustment in economic growth outlook and a slight downward adjustment in inflation expectations. The nomination of the new Fed chair may be confirmed early next year, and the more dovish candidate, Hasset, has an increasing probability of being nominated. Before his nomination and taking office, it may be the most favorable period for the trading of liquidity easing expectations and Fed independence risks [5]. - Domestic macro: The Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference in December analyzed and studied the economic work for 2026. The tone of the meeting is moderately positive. It is expected that the overall intensity of macro - policies in 2026 will be roughly the same as in 2025, and the idea of counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical balance will continue. Food prices have rebounded significantly, and prices of household appliances, clothing, airplane tickets, domestic services, and catering have also increased [5]. - Asset views: The current macro - environment is beneficial to the precious metals sector and non - ferrous metals with high financial attributes such as copper and aluminum. Attention should also be paid to other non - ferrous metals like tin and lithium carbonate. Domestic equities are conservative at the end of the year and during the policy window period. The strong demand for industrial products in emerging markets and the expected Fed rate cuts are favorable for industrial commodities. The tight supply - demand fundamentals of copper and aluminum may drive their prices higher. On the equity side, the stock index lacks upward momentum after the important meetings have set the tone and is relatively defensive [5]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Summary - **Stock index futures**: CSI 300 futures are at 4499.4 with a daily increase of 1.02%, a weekly decrease of 0.14%, a monthly decrease of 2.57%, a quarterly increase of 14.75%, and a year - to - date increase of 14.75%. Other stock index futures also show different price changes and trends [2]. - **Treasury bond futures**: 2 - year treasury bond futures are at 102.43 with a daily decrease of 0.03%, a weekly decrease of 0.04%, a monthly increase of 0.05%, a quarterly increase of 0.14%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.53%. Different - term treasury bond futures have different performance [2]. - **Foreign exchange**: The US dollar index is at 98.28 with a daily increase of 0.10%, a weekly increase of 0.226%, a monthly increase of 3%, a quarterly increase of 0.47%, and a year - to - date decrease of 9.40%. Exchange rates between different currencies also show various changes [2]. - **Interest rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate is at 1.48 with a daily change of 0 bp, a weekly increase of 2 bp, a monthly decrease of 2 bp, a quarterly increase of 3 bp, and a year - to - date decrease of 27 bp. Other interest rates also have corresponding changes [2]. - **Hot industries**: Industries such as comprehensive finance, commerce and trade retail, and consumer services show different price movements and gains or losses in different time periods. For example, the comprehensive finance index is at 880 with a daily increase of 1.139%, a weekly increase of 1.13%, a monthly decrease of 1.78%, a quarterly decrease of 6.60%, and a year - to - date increase of 13.08% [2]. - **Overseas commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil is at 56.68 with a daily decrease of 1.48%, a weekly increase of 51.48%, a monthly decrease of 3.08%, a quarterly increase of 20.225%, and a year - to - date decrease of 21.2%. Different overseas commodities have different price trends [2]. 3.2 Viewpoints on Different Sectors | Sector | Variety | Recent Market Logic | Attention Points | Short - term Judgment | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Financial | Stock index futures | Technology events catalyze the activity of the growth style | Crowded funds in small - cap stocks | Oscillatory rise | | | Stock index options | The overall market turnover has slightly declined | Insufficient liquidity in the options market | Oscillation | | | Treasury bond futures | The bond market remains weak | Policy surprises, better - than - expected fundamental recovery, and tariff factor surprises | Oscillation | | Precious metals | Gold/Silver | Geopolitical and trade relations have eased, leading to a phased adjustment of precious metals | US fundamental performance, Fed monetary policy, and global equity market trends | Oscillation | | Shipping | Container shipping to Europe | The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and loading pressure lacks upward driving force | The rate of freight decline in September | Oscillation | | Black building materials | Steel, iron ore | The market is still weak, and attention is paid to cost support and demand changes | Special bond issuance progress, steel exports, iron - water production, overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - water production, weather, port ore inventory, and policy dynamics | Oscillation | | | Coke | Cost support is strong, and the market oscillates | Steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment | Oscillation | | | Coking coal | Supply is difficult to improve, and spot prices continue to rise | Steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment | Oscillation | | | Ferrosilicon | Cost support exists, but upward driving force is insufficient | Raw material costs and steel procurement | Oscillation | | | Manganese silicon | Supply pressure is difficult to solve, and the market is under pressure | Cost prices and overseas quotes | Oscillation | | | Glass | Supply cuts have been implemented, and spot prices have risen | Spot sales | Oscillation | | | Soda ash | Downstream replenishment at low prices, and spot prices have slightly increased | Soda ash inventory | Oscillation | | Non - ferrous metals | Copper | Trade frictions have resurfaced, and copper prices have declined in the short term | Supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - dovish Fed than expected, less - than - expected domestic demand recovery, and economic recession | Oscillation | | | Aluminum oxide | The fundamentals are still weak, and the price is under pressure | Insufficient ore resumption, excessive electrolytic aluminum resumption, and extreme sector trends | Oscillation | | | Aluminum | Inventory has decreased, and aluminum prices are rising oscillatingly | Macro - risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand | Oscillatory rise | | | Zinc | Inventory is expected to be in surplus, and zinc prices are oscillating weakly | Macro - turning risks and unexpected recovery of zinc ore supply | Oscillation | | Energy and chemical | Crude oil | Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical risks still exist | OPEC+ production policies and Middle East geopolitical situations | Oscillation | | | LPG | Supply is still in surplus, and attention is paid to cost developments | Cost developments of crude oil and overseas propane | Oscillation | | | Asphalt | Asphalt futures prices may test the 3200 resistance level again | Sanctions and supply disruptions | Oscillatory decline | | | High - sulfur fuel oil | The fuel oil market oscillates weakly | Geopolitics and crude oil prices | Oscillatory decline | | | Low - sulfur fuel oil | Low - sulfur fuel oil follows crude oil and oscillates weakly | Crude oil prices | Oscillatory decline | | | Methanol | There is some support at the 2100 level, and methanol oscillates | Macro - energy and overseas dynamics | Oscillation | | | Urea | High inventory suppresses while cost supports, and it oscillates narrowly | Coal prices and information from the Nanjing phosphorus compound fertilizer conference | Oscillation | | | Ethylene glycol | The supply - demand contradiction has become the focus again, and pessimism is hard to reverse | Fluctuations in coal and oil prices, port inventory rhythm, and Sino - US trade frictions | Oscillatory decline | | | PX | The market lacks clear guidance, and cost and sentiment compete to maintain oscillation | Sharp fluctuations in crude oil and macro - abnormalities | Oscillation | | | PTA | Xin Fengming starts new and stops old, and short - term new supply is limited | Sharp fluctuations in crude oil and macro - abnormalities | Oscillation | | | Short - fiber | Downstream factories are digesting previous inventories, and processing fees are expected to be compressed | Downstream yarn mill purchasing rhythm and peak - season demand | Oscillation | | | Bottle - grade polyester chips | Cost is stalemate, and supply - demand driving force is limited | Implementation of bottle - grade polyester chip enterprise production reduction targets and new device commissioning | Oscillation | | | Propylene | Downstream transactions have limited improvement, and the market oscillates | Oil prices and domestic macro - situation | Oscillation | | | PP | Fundamental support is limited, and PP weakens | Oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations | Oscillation | | | Plastic | Maintenance has decreased in the short term, and the plastic market is in a weak pattern | Oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations | Oscillation | | | Styrene | There are still concerns about over - inventory, and styrene oscillates weakly | Oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics | Oscillatory decline | | | PVC | Market sentiment has cooled, and PVC oscillates weakly | Expectations, costs, and supply | Oscillation | | | Caustic soda | Low valuation and weak expectations, and caustic soda oscillates | Market sentiment, production start - up, and demand | Oscillation | | Agriculture | Oils and fats | Market sentiment has improved, waiting for positive factors to ferment | US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production - demand data | Oscillation | | | Protein meal | Both types of meal have risen, and the market remains strong | Weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars | Oscillatory rise | | | Corn/starch | Downstream orders support port prices, and the market oscillates | Demand, macro - situation, and weather | Oscillation | | | Live pigs | Farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices, and prices oscillate | Breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies | Oscillatory decline | | | Natural rubber | The market oscillates and adjusts, and the bearish sentiment remains | Producing area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes | Oscillatory decline | | | Synthetic rubber | It has rebounded from the bottom, and attention is paid to changes in trading sentiment | Sharp fluctuations in crude oil | Oscillatory decline | | | Cotton | The main contract oscillates, with limited upward and downward space | Demand and inventory | Oscillation | | | Sugar | The idea of shorting at high prices is maintained | Imports and Brazilian production | Oscillatory decline | | | Pulp | The market volume has increased, and the enthusiasm for spot - futures arbitrage has risen | Macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - denominated quotes | Oscillation | | | Offset printing paper | Offset printing paper follows the pulp market and strengthens | Production and sales, education policies, and paper mill production start - up dynamics | Oscillation | | | Logs | Logs oscillate at the bottom | Special port fees, shipment volume, and dispatch volume | Oscillation | [6][8]