Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and asphalt are all rated with three stars (★★★), indicating a clearer long/short trend and currently a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [2] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical risk premium for crude oil has weakened, and prices are under pressure. Fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil follow the crude oil market, with the high-sulfur > low-sulfur pattern likely to continue. Asphalt has a limited decline and its near-month futures contracts are supported by cost factors [3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The situation between the US and Iran has unexpectedly eased, and the geopolitical risk premium has weakened, causing the previous gains to be continuously reversed. The inventory pressure in the global crude oil market is significant in Q1. With the uncertainty of the US-Iran negotiations and the strengthening of the US dollar, oil prices are expected to fluctuate frequently [3] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil has declined following the bearish sentiment in the crude oil market. High-sulfur fuel oil has a tight spot market due to factors such as reduced Russian exports and increased alternative procurement in China. Geopolitical risks still provide some support. In the medium term, the high-sulfur market will face supply pressure if the geopolitical risks do not escalate. Low-sulfur fuel oil has continuous supply pressure due to the postponed return of the RFCC unit at the Dangote refinery in Nigeria. The demand support has weakened. The fuel oil market will mainly follow the fluctuations of crude oil, and the high-sulfur > low-sulfur pattern may continue [4] Asphalt - Asphalt has corrected following the crude oil-related varieties, but the decline is relatively limited. The supply pressure is limited in the short term, and the consumption performance has improved year-on-year. The domestic refineries' search for substitutes for Venezuelan crude oil supports the near-month asphalt futures contracts from the cost side, and the asphalt crack spread is strong [5]

| | | | '/ V SDIC FUTURES | | 2026年02月03日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 豆一 | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | ☆☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | なな女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な女女 | | | | | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | ななな | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 薬粕 | 女女女 | | | 菜油 | | F0302203 Z0012037 | | | な☆☆ | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | な☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | な☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 本周政策端继续拍卖大豆,市场边际供应增加,成交价格偏强,国产大豆计划拍卖60608吨,全部成交,底价 4050元/吨，成交均价4298元/吨，溢价210-310元/吨。近期地缘与宏观风险事件比较集中,且方向尚不明确, ...

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman by President Trump has led to significant shifts in the gold and precious metals market, with expectations of tighter monetary policy impacting prices [1][3]. Market Data - On February 3, the closing price of Shanghai gold futures was 1093.78 yuan per gram, reflecting a daily increase of 0.63% with a trading volume of 726,056 lots and an open interest of 179,295 lots [1]. - The spot price of gold in Shanghai was quoted at 1097.00 yuan per gram, indicating a premium of 3.22 yuan per gram over the futures price [1]. Political Context - Trump's nomination of Warsh has faced resistance within the Republican Party, with Senator Thom Tillis stating opposition to any Fed nominee until the investigation into Powell is resolved [2]. - Senator Scott, chair of the Senate Banking Committee, has indicated a desire for a careful and timely confirmation process for Warsh [2]. - Senator Warren has criticized the nomination as part of Trump's broader strategy to exert control over the Federal Reserve [2]. Market Reaction - The precious metals market experienced a significant downturn following the announcement of Warsh's nomination, with a notable shift in market sentiment driven by macroeconomic expectations and technical corrections [3]. - Warsh is known for his "hawkish" stance, advocating for a combination of interest rate cuts and balance sheet reduction, which has heightened expectations for tighter monetary policy and strengthened the dollar [3]. - The rapid price decline in precious metals was exacerbated by leveraged positions being liquidated and algorithmic trading, prompting exchanges to raise margin requirements as a risk management measure [3]. - Despite short-term pressures, structural factors supporting the long-term outlook for precious metals remain intact, suggesting a complex consolidation phase ahead [3].

上海黄金交易所：经研究决定，拟对黄金部分合约交易保证金水平和涨跌停板比例进行调整。现将相关 事项通知如下：自2026年2月4日(星期三)收盘清算时起，Au(T+D)、mAu(T+D)、Au(T+N1)、 Au(T+N2)、NYAuTN06、NYAuTN12等合约的保证金比例从16%调整为17%，下一交易日起涨跌幅度限 制从15%调整为16%；CAu99.99合约保证金每手120,000元调整至每手150,000元。 2月2日芝加哥商业交易所(CME)：黄金期货成交量为447704手，较上个交易日减少138224手。未平仓合 约为415310手，较上个交易日减少10206手。 分析观点： 信达期货研报：短期内黄金受到获利回吐以及事件利空，或仍将维持高波动、强事件驱动的运行特征。 特朗普相关表态、地缘局势演变以及美联储人事与政策预期，仍是影响市场情绪的核心变量。在缺乏新 的实质性风险升级或明确政策转向之前，高位震荡与反复拉锯或成为常态。但从中期视角看，政策不确 定性、地缘风险常态化以及美元体系内在矛盾并未彻底消除，黄金作为非信用资产的配置价值仍具韧 性。若后续继续因情绪退潮或预期修正引发进一步回调，更多可能体现为 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, crude oil rebounded, and geopolitical risks escalated. Over the weekend, the unstable situation in Iran continued. Trump received a briefing on military strike plans against Iran but has not made a final decision on whether to authorize the strike. Israel is highly vigilant about the possibility of US intervention in Iran, and Iran has warned that if attacked, it will strike back at Israel and the US. The Iranian president has shown a willingness to meet with protest groups, indicating a tendency towards reconciliation. If the US launches a strike against Iran, oil prices may rise due to geopolitical risks. From a fundamental perspective, oil inventories increased this week, the Dubai monthly spread weakened slightly after opening low, gasoline cracking strengthened while diesel cracking fluctuated, and European refinery profits weakened. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation, and the price center in the first quarter is expected to be high and volatile [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Oil Price Data - From January 27 to February 2, WTI decreased by $3.07, BRENT decreased by $3.02, and DUBAI increased by $3.05. Other indicators such as spreads and crack spreads also showed corresponding changes [3] 2. Daily News - US and Iranian senior officials are expected to meet in Istanbul on Friday to ease tensions. Iran is willing to close or suspend its nuclear program and is more inclined to adopt the proposal of establishing a regional nuclear power production consortium put forward last year. Iran's National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani met with Russian President Putin in Moscow and conveyed a message from Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei, indicating that Iran could agree to transport its enriched uranium stockpile to Russia, similar to the practice under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [3] - Israel will put forward three "no" requirements for Iran in its talks with US President's Special Envoy Witkoff, namely, Iran must agree not to develop a nuclear program, not to develop a ballistic missile program, and not to support armed "agents" including so - called "terrorist organizations" that threaten Israel. Israel still believes that "military strikes to overthrow the Iranian regime are 'possible'" [3] - US President Trump said that he had a conversation with Indian Prime Minister Modi. The US and India agreed to establish a trade agreement. The US will reduce its tariffs on India from 25% to 18%, and India will gradually cancel tariffs and non - tariff barriers on the US. Modi also promised to "buy US products" and purchase more than $500 billion worth of US energy, technology, agricultural products, coal and other products [3] 3. Inventory - In the week of January 23, US crude oil exports increased by 901,000 barrels per day to 4.589 million barrels per day [3] - US domestic crude oil production decreased by 36,000 barrels to 13.696 million barrels per day [3] - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 2.295 million barrels to 424 million barrels, a decrease of 0.54% [3] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.271 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.08% compared with the same period last year [3] - US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 515,000 barrels to 415 million barrels, an increase of 0.12% [3] - US commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 5.642 million barrels per day, a decrease of 805,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week [3]

Group 1: Market Overview - Global financial markets are showing a positive trend, with both Japanese and South Korean stock markets rising simultaneously, and international precious metals markets experiencing a strong rebound [1][3] - The London spot gold price successfully surpassed the key level of $4800 per ounce, with an intraday increase of 4.1%, reaching a peak of $4850 per ounce, indicating a recovery from previous declines [1][4] - Silver also saw a significant rebound, with an intraday increase of over 5%, contributing to the overall recovery in the precious metals sector [1][4] Group 2: Drivers of Stock Market Performance - The rise in Japanese and South Korean stock markets is primarily driven by the strong performance of U.S. semiconductor stocks, which positively impacted local storage chip stocks, leading to a significant increase in the KOSPI index [3] - The Nikkei 225 index benefited from the combined strength of the semiconductor and consumer sectors, along with foreign capital inflow due to fluctuations in the yen exchange rate [3] - Market expectations for economic recovery in both Japan and South Korea have also provided emotional support for the stock markets, despite previous short-term declines [3] Group 3: Precious Metals Dynamics - The rebound in precious metals, particularly gold surpassing $4800, is attributed to a combination of oversold conditions and fundamental support, including ongoing central bank gold purchases [4] - The global central bank gold purchase volume is projected to reach 1200 tons by January 2026, with the People's Bank of China increasing its holdings, providing a solid bottom support for gold prices [4] - The industrial demand for silver, particularly in sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles, has further enhanced its appeal, leading to a widening supply-demand gap [4] Group 4: Macro Environment and Market Sentiment - The global macro environment has provided common support for the synchronized positive trend in both stock markets and precious metals, despite a slowdown in expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts [5] - The agreement in the U.S. Senate on government funding has alleviated risks of a government shutdown, reducing uncertainty in global markets [5] - There is a notable divergence in market sentiment regarding the sustainability of the current trends, with optimistic views on semiconductor demand and cautious perspectives on potential corrections in both stock and precious metals markets [5][6]

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2026-02-03 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 地缘风险降温，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 核心逻辑：近期海外供应"硬收缩"带来最强支撑，这是近期支撑甲醇价格上行的最关键因素。作 为主要进口来源地的伊朗，目前正面临严重的供应干扰。同时国内港口甲醇库存去化，带动了港口 现货价格的修复，基差走强。这种现货 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term view of crude oil 2603 is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is weak. It is expected to run weakly. The core logic is that geopolitical risks have cooled down, leading to a weakening and volatile trend in crude oil [1][5]. Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog - **Time Cycle Definition**: Short - term refers to within a week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month [1]. - **Price Calculation**: For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the daily - session closing price to calculate the price change [2]. - **Strength Classification**: A decline of more than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is considered weak - biased, a rise of 0 - 1% is considered strong - biased, and a rise of more than 1% is considered strong. The strong - biased/weak - biased classification only applies to intraday views [3][4]. - **Crude Oil Market Analysis**: Recently, US President Trump has frequently signaled geopolitical risks, with Greenland and Canada potentially being targets. However, due to the peace - talk signals between the US and Iran, geopolitical risks have cooled down, causing the premium of crude oil to retreat and weakening the bullish sentiment in the domestic energy - chemical sector. On the night of Monday this week, domestic and international crude oil futures prices showed a volatile decline. Given the weakening of short - term Middle - East geopolitical sentiment and the possibility of a peace - talk agreement between the US and Iran, the expectation of a shortage in crude oil supply has decreased. It is expected that domestic crude oil futures may maintain a weakly volatile pattern on Tuesday [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - This week, the futures market fluctuated and rose following crude oil due to geopolitical and macro - emotional disturbances. The 03 basis was 64 (-32), and the 03 - 04 spread was -294 (-16). The current cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4418 (+46). The warehouse receipt was 5867 lots (-31). The February CP official price met expectations, with propane and butane at 545/540 (+20/+20). The FEI spread fluctuated, while the CP and MB spreads declined. The oil - gas ratio decreased, and the North American natural gas - LPG ratio increased. The internal - external spread weakened significantly. Freight rates rose significantly due to loading delays caused by the North American cold snap and supply - demand tightness, as well as the high risk of the Strait of Hormuz blockade due to the tense situation in Iran. The profit of domestic PDH to propylene strengthened significantly, with the latest at -237 (a month - on - month increase of 200). The PDH operating rate was 60.72% (-1.53pct). Fundamentally, the geopolitical risk has not subsided. Supported by the rising external price, the sentiment of domestic LPG futures is good, but the domestic downstream profit is poor and there is a de - stocking behavior before the festival, so the support for the spot price is not strong. The current internal basis is weak, the spread valuation is neutral, and the follow - up needs to pay attention to the warehouse receipts and the external market. The internal - external valuation is moderately high, and the external market may remain tight in the short term. Attention should be paid to the cold snap in the US in February and the development of the situation in Iran [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs LPG Price Data - From January 27 to February 2, 2026, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - after carbon four, Shandong alkylated oil, paper import profit, and main basis all had corresponding changes. For example, the South China LPG price increased from 4840 to 4870, with a daily change of 30. The paper import profit changed from 54 to -40, with a daily change of 137 [1] Daily Viewpoints - On Monday, the futures market fell significantly, following the oil price and the external market. The 03 - 04 spread was -284 (-2), the 03 - 05 spread was -190 (-12), and the 04 - 05 spread was 94 (-13). As of 10:30 p.m. on Monday, FEI and CP were 523.25 and 525.75 US dollars respectively [1] Weekly Viewpoints - This week, the futures market fluctuated and rose following crude oil due to geopolitical and macro - emotional disturbances. The 03 basis was 64 (-32), and the 03 - 04 spread was -294 (-16). The current cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4418 (+46). The warehouse receipt was 5867 lots (-31), with 31 lots reduced from Haiyu Petrochemical. The February CP official price met expectations, with propane and butane at 545/540 (+20/+20). The FEI spread fluctuated, while the CP and MB spreads declined. The oil - gas ratio decreased, and the North American natural gas - LPG ratio increased. The internal - external spread weakened significantly, with PG - FEI at 37.5 (-17.8) and PG - CP at 59 (-8). Freight rates rose significantly due to loading delays caused by the North American cold snap and supply - demand tightness, as well as the high risk of the Strait of Hormuz blockade due to the tense situation in Iran. The East China propane arrival discount was 91 (+6); the FOB discounts of AFEI, Middle East, and US propane were 19.25 (-16.75), -15 (-35), and 46.89 (-15.6) respectively. The FEI - MOPJ spread was -29 (-11). The profit of domestic PDH to propylene strengthened significantly, with the latest at -237 (a month - on - month increase of 200). The PDH operating rate was 60.72% (-1.53pct). Fundamentally, the geopolitical risk has not subsided. Supported by the rising external price, the sentiment of domestic LPG futures is good, but the domestic downstream profit is poor and there is a de - stocking behavior before the festival, so the support for the spot price is not strong. The current internal basis is weak, the spread valuation is neutral, and the follow - up needs to pay attention to the warehouse receipts and the external market. The internal - external valuation is moderately high, and the external market may remain tight in the short term. Attention should be paid to the cold snap in the US in February and the development of the situation in Iran [1]

大类资产运行报告 全球主要资产表现 | | | 近一周变动 | | --- | --- | --- | | 新兴市场股市指数 | | 1.80% | | Table_Fi rstSto ck 发达市场股市指数 主要资产涨跌幅表现 | | 0.50% | | 全球债券指数 | | 0.80% | | 全球国债指数 | | 0.96% | | 全球信用债指数 姓名 | | 0.57% | | | | 分析师 | | 美元指数 | SAC 执业证书编号：S1111111111111 | -0.40% | | RJ/CRB 商品价格指数 | Xxxxxx @essence.com.cn | 2.51% | | | | 021-68767839 | 丁沛舟 高级分析师 期货从业资格号：F3002969 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012005 dingpz@essence.com.cn 010-58747724 资料来源：Wind 相关报告 大类资产运行周报（20251103 -20251107）-美国政府停摆破纪录 大类 资产价格回落 大类资产运行周报（20251110 -20251114）-美国政府停摆结束 关键数 据 ...