流动性日报 | 2025-07-18 市场流动性概况 2025-07-17，股指板块成交5374.04亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.34%；持仓金额10821.84亿元，较上一交易日变动 +2.76%；成交持仓比为49.59%。 国债板块成交2606.24亿元，较上一交易日变动-4.56%；持仓金额9072.33亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.20%；成交持 仓比为29.01%。 基本金属板块成交4441.70亿元，较上一交易日变动+12.92%；持仓金额4882.71亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.99%； 成交持仓比为122.02%。 贵金属板块成交5384.61亿元，较上一交易日变动+36.71%；持仓金额4535.74亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.45%；成 交持仓比为118.61%。 能源化工板块成交4389.77亿元，较上一交易日变动+8.20%；持仓金额4420.29亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.13%；成 交持仓比为73.99%。 农产品板块成交3415.00亿元，较上一交易日变动+33.30%；持仓金额5874.09亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.82%；成 交持仓比为54.68%。 黑色建材板块成交2586 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-07-18 军工板块再度领涨 市场分析 特朗普对日致函。国内方面，国家统计局公布了31个省份2025年上半年居民人均可支配收入情况。分省份来看， 共有11个省份上半年居民人均可支配收入超过了2万元，其中，北京和上海超过了4.5万元，上海居民人均可支配收 入达46805元，位居第一。海外方面，特朗普表示，美国可能会按照此前致信内容来执行对日本的关税税率，并可 能很快与印度达成贸易协定。特朗普日前致信日本领导人，称将从8月1日起对从日本进口商品征收25%的关税。 沪指回升。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡回升，上证指数涨0.37%收于3516.83点，创业板指涨1.76%。行业方面， 板块指数涨多跌少，国防军工、通信、电子、医药生物行业领涨，银行、交通运输、环保行业跌幅居前。当日沪 深两市成交金额回升至1.5万亿元。花旗将中国股市评级上调至增持，预计恒生指数今年年底的目标价为25000点， 沪深300指数今年年底目标价4200点。海外市场，美国上周初请失业金人数减少7000人至22.1万人，连续第五周下 降。6月零售销售环比增长0.6%，高于市场预期的0.1%。美股三大指数全线收涨，纳指涨0 ...

石油沥青日报 | 2025-07-18 成本端指引不明确，现货观望情绪浓厚 市场分析 1、7月17日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2509合约下午收盘价3628元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨11元/吨，涨幅 0.3%；持仓226709手，环比上涨1229手，成交185709手，环比上升77446手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3900—4086元/吨；山东，3660—4070元/吨；华南，3600—3630元/吨； 华东，3660—3800元/吨。 昨日华北市场沥青现货价格小幅下跌，其余区域沥青现货价格均以持稳为主。目前原油价格震荡运行，强现实、 弱预期的格局导致市场缺乏明确趋势，对沥青而言成本端方向指引有限。就沥青自身基本面而言，整体供需两弱 格局延续，库存处于低位，市场矛盾相对不突出，现货端观望情绪较为浓厚。往前看沥青供需两端均存在增长预 期，需要关注库存趋势的变化情况。 策略 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 | 图1：山东重交沥青现货价格 | 单位：元/吨 3 | | -- ...

FICC日报 | 2025-07-18 ONE8月上半月价格沿用，运价继续高位徘徊 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹31周价格为1855/3110；HPL 7月下半月船期报价2035/3335，8月上半月船 期报价2235/3535。 MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 上海-鹿特丹7月份下半月船期报价2060/3440；ONE7月下半月船期报价2604/3343； HMM上海-鹿特丹7月下半月船期报价1915/3400; YML7月下半月船期报价降至1800/3100。 Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹7月下半月船期报价2035/3645，8月份船期报价2585/4745；EMC 7月下半月船期 报价介于3300-3660美元/FEU；OOCL 7月下半月船期报价2100/3500。 中国-欧基港7月份剩余3周周均运力30.35万TEU，WEEK29/30/31周运力分别为29.54/32.92/28.6万TEU。8月份月度 周均运力31万TEU，WEEK32/33/34/35/36周运力分别为30.31/29.61/34.1 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-07-18 供应偏紧预期增强，郑棉期价强势上冲 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2509合约14250元/吨，较前一日变动+260元/吨，幅度+1.86%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆 到厂价15316元/吨，较前一日变动+101元/吨，现货基差CF09+1066，较前一日变动-159；3128B棉全国均价15354 元/吨，较前一日变动+82元/吨，现货基差CF09+1104，较前一日变动-178。 近期市场资讯，据巴西当地行业机构数据，截至7月12日，巴西新棉收获进度约13.6%，较近五年均值低5.6个百分 点。价格方面，受巴西棉花丰产影响，其国内棉价承压走弱，但仍高于国际棉价。具体来看，16日巴西现货棉价 为73.83美分/磅，较前一日下跌0.63%，处于近两个月次低位置。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价强势上涨。国际方面，7月USDA供需报告上调全球棉花产量及期末库存，调整方向偏空。目前来看 今年供应端天气的叙事性不足，考虑到巴西和中国的增产预期，25/26年度全球棉市仍将处于供应偏松格局。由于 美棉实播面积高于预期，主产区旱情较此前明显改善，USDA如预期上调美棉 ...

粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 农产品日报 | 2025-07-18 现货价格整体上涨，豆粕偏强震荡 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约3029元/吨，较前日变动+52元/吨，幅度+1.75%；菜粕2509合约2719元/吨，较前 日变动+66元/吨，幅度+2.49%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格2940元/吨，较前日变动+30元/吨，现货基差M09-89， 较前日变动-22；江苏地区豆粕现货2860元/吨，较前日变动+50元/吨，现货基差M09-169，较前日变动-2；广东地 区豆粕现货价格2830元/吨，较前日变动跌+40元/吨，现货基差M09-199，较前日变动-12。福建地区菜粕现货价格 2710元/吨，较前日变动+60元/吨，现货基差RM09-9，较前日变动-6。 近期市场资讯，巴西全国谷物出口商协会表示，预计2025年7月份巴西大豆出口量1219万吨，高于一周前预估的1193 万吨，低于6月份的出口量1350万吨；预计2025年巴西大豆出口量1.1亿吨，同比增加约1300万吨。阿根廷罗萨里奥 谷物交易所周三将该国2024/25年度大豆产量预估上调至4,950万吨，而此前预测为4,850万吨。 市场 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - On July 17, the closing price of the coking coal 2509 contract was 918.5, up 1.55%. The Mongolian 5 raw coal in the spot market was reported at 785. The China National Coal Transportation and Marketing Association emphasized scientific production rhythm, improving coal supply quality, and promoting market balance. The mine - end inventory decreased, market confidence improved, and the coking coal inventory was transferred downstream. The import cumulative growth rate decreased, and the total inventory was neutral. The 4 - hour cycle K - line was above the 20 and 60 moving averages. It should be treated with a bullish - biased range - bound approach [2]. - On July 17, the closing price of the coke 2509 contract was 1519.0, up 1.00%. Some regions proposed a price increase. Jiangsu Province planned to increase the proportion of short - process steelmaking production to over 20% in 2025 and reduce coal consumption by about 5% compared to 2020. The raw material supply improved, iron - water production declined slightly from a high level, most coal mines had no inventory pressure and were willing to hold prices. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was 63 yuan/ton. The 4 - hour cycle K - line was above the 20 and 60 moving averages. It should be treated with a bullish - biased range - bound approach [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the JM main contract was 918.50 yuan/ton, up 21.50; the closing price of the J main contract was 1519.00 yuan/ton, up 24.50 [2]. - The JM futures contract open interest was 850792.00 lots, up 5330.00; the J futures contract open interest was 54981.00 lots, down 196.00 [2]. - The net open interest of the top 20 coking coal contracts was - 62188.00 lots, up 15289.00; the net open interest of the top 20 coke contracts was - 3702.00 lots, up 137.00 [2]. - The JM1 - 9 month contract spread was 49.50 yuan/ton, up 3.00; the J1 - 9 month contract spread was 40.00 yuan/ton, down 4.00 [2]. - The coking coal warehouse receipts were 1600.00, unchanged; the coke warehouse receipts were 760.00, up 670.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Mongolian 5 raw coal at Ganqimao Port was 785.00 yuan/ton, up 2.00; the price of Tangshan quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1390.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 120.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1220.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Australian prime coking coal imported at Jingtang Port was 1330.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tianjin Port first - grade metallurgical coke was 1320.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Shanxi - produced prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1410.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tianjin Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1220.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 930.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the J main contract basis was - 129.00 yuan/ton, down 24.50 [2]. - The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 960.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the JM main contract basis was 11.50 yuan/ton, down 21.50 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The raw coal inventory of 110 coal washing plants was 298.69 million tons, down 2.08; the clean coal inventory was 191.54 million tons, down 5.53 [2]. - The operating rate of 110 coal washing plants was 62.85%, up 0.52; the raw coal production was 42107.40 million tons, up 1779.00 [2]. - The import volume of coal and lignite was 3303.70 million tons, down 300.30; the daily average raw coal output of 523 coking coal mines was 192.90, up 1.10 [2]. - The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 553.79 million tons, up 29.08; the inventory of coke at 18 ports was 255.68 million tons, up 13.66 [2]. 3.4 National Industrial Situation - The total inventory of coking coal of independent coking enterprises was 892.35 million tons, up 44.17; the inventory of coke of independent coking enterprises was 93.08 million tons, down 9.02 [2]. - The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 782.93 million tons, down 6.67; the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 637.80 million tons, up 0.31 [2]. - The available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises were 12.48 days, down 0.03; the available days of coke for 247 steel mills were 11.64 days, up 0.12 [2]. - The import volume of coking coal was 738.69 million tons, down 150.65; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 0.00 million tons, down 68.00 [2]. - The production of coking coal was 4070.27 million tons, up 144.11; the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 72.87%, down 0.30 [2]. - The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 63.00 yuan/ton, down 11.00; the coke production was 4170.30 million tons, down 67.30 [2]. 3.5 National Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.13%, down 0.31; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 89.87%, down 0.40 [2]. - The crude steel production was 8318.40 million tons, down 336.10 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Jiangsu Province issued the 2025 Air Pollution Prevention and Control Work Plan, aiming for short - process steelmaking production to account for over 20% in 2025 and a 5% reduction in coal consumption compared to 2020 [2]. - The World Gold Council reported that more central banks were buying gold directly from local gold mines with local currencies [2]. - As of June 30, the installed power capacity in Zhejiang Province reached 165 million kilowatts, with renewable energy accounting for over 50%, and photovoltaic installed capacity becoming the largest power source, up 53.4% year - on - year [2]. - The EU proposed a nearly 2 - trillion - euro seven - year budget, with 4505 billion euros for the EU Competitiveness Fund [2].

黑色建材日报 | 2025-07-18 成本持续推升，黑色再度上涨 钢材：成本持续推升，黑色再度上涨 市场分析 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：铁水产量回升，铁矿震荡上行 期现货方面：昨日钢材偏强运行，热卷期货主力合约录得新高。现货方面，昨日钢材现货成交整体一般，现货价 格跟随幅度有限，基差继续收缩，期现入场，刚需较少，现货成交9.48万吨。 供需与逻辑：本周钢联数据显示，螺纹产量环比减少，需求淡季走弱，库存小幅累库。热卷产量环比下降，库存 环比去化，表观需求微增。整体来看，钢材基本面矛盾不大，略优于季节性表现，在保持一定利润水平下，原料 支撑依然有效。关注基差修复、政策兑现、海外关税及套保资金动向。 策略 单边：震荡 供需与逻辑：本周铁水产量回升，铁水处于同期中高位，铁矿消费韧性表现尚可，港口库存小幅增长，大口径库 存微降。受宏观情绪与基本面强支撑叠加影响，短期铁矿石价格出现反弹，长期来看，铁矿石依旧呈现供需偏宽 松预期，后期持续关注淡季铁水产量情况及铁矿石库存变化。 策略 单边：震荡 跨品种：无 跨期：无 期现：无 期权：无 ...

油料日报 | 2025-07-18 宽松供需承压，聚焦天气政策与新季节奏 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2509合约4200.00元/吨，较前日变化+21.00元/吨，幅度+0.50%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A09+100，较前日变化-21，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：东北市场昨日大豆价格暂稳。黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.15元/ 斤，较昨日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.16元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江佳 木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.16元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等 蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报 价2.18元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江绥化海伦市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.20元/斤，较昨日平。 昨日豆一期货继续小幅上涨，当前国产大豆供应维持宽松态势，产量预期增加且陈豆库存压力仍存，同时需求端 表现疲软。临近8月1日关税节点带来的进口成本不确定性及国际出口协议对市场情绪的影响，是当前的主要影 ...

燃料油日报 | 2025-07-18 短期市场驱动有限，盘面窄幅波动 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.28%，报2863元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌1.89%，报3580 元/吨。 欧佩克会议以来原油价格走势震荡偏强，FU、LU单边价格受到成本端支撑，但中期原油市场存在平衡表转松的预 期，或限制价格上行空间。近日油价出现回撤，也反映连续反弹后阻力开始显现，带动盘面下跌，原油端趋势转 弱后市场驱动相对有限。 就高硫燃料油市场而言，当前市场结构维持弱势运行，现货贴水、月差、裂解价差连续走低，尤其裂解价差已经 从高位显著回落，现货端供应相对充裕，库存水平偏高。往前看，我们认为高硫燃料油结构性支撑因素仍存，但 需要裂解价差进一步回调来吸引炼厂端的需求回升，调整充分到炼厂端需求显著回归的阶段，市场将重新获得支 撑，未来可以关注市场结构再度走强的机会。 低硫燃料油方面，近期市场结构持稳运行，海外柴油表现偏强对市场形成一定支撑，且上半年国产量同比显著下 滑，整体供应压力有限。但低硫燃料油剩余产能较为充裕，且中长期来看航运业碳中和趋势将导致低硫燃料油市 场份额被逐步替代，对市场前景形成压制。 整 ...