Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For methanol, Iranian plants have started to shut down, leading to a resonance rebound in ports and inland areas, with a slight strengthening of the basis. Port inventories have decreased for two consecutive weeks, but floating storage is high, and it is expected to return to inventory accumulation later. It is believed that the end - point of contract 01 will still be high inventory, and it is advisable to do a 1 - 5 reverse spread on rallies [1]. - For polyethylene, the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are destocking, while social inventory remains flat. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. Domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as new plant commissioning in 2025 [3]. - For polypropylene, upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. The basis is - 60, non - standard price spreads are neutral, and import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year.后续供应预计环比略增加, downstream orders are average currently, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. In the context of over - capacity, contract 01 is expected to face neutral to excessive pressure, which can be alleviated if exports continue to increase or PDH plants have more maintenance [3]. - For PVC, the basis remains at 01 - 270, and the ex - factory basis is - 480. Downstream operating rates are seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. Attention should be paid to new plant commissioning and export sustainability in Q4. Current static inventory contradictions are accumulating slowly, costs are stable, and downstream performance is mediocre. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [3]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From December 19 to 25, 2025, the price of power coal futures remained at 801, while the prices of Jiangsu and South China spot, and other regional prices showed certain fluctuations, with daily changes such as a 25 - yuan decrease in Jiangsu spot [1]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: Iranian plants shut down, ports and inland areas rebounded, basis strengthened slightly, ports destocked for two weeks but floating storage was high, and it is expected to return to inventory accumulation. November shipments from Iran were 1.1 million tons, and it is difficult to reduce imports from December to January [1]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From December 19 to 25, 2025, prices of Northeast Asia ethylene, North China LL, and other products changed, with daily changes like a 10 - yuan decrease in North China LL [3]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: Sinopec and PetroChina's inventory is neutral year - on - year, upstream and coal - chemical industries are destocking, social inventory is flat, downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Overall inventory is neutral, import profit is around - 200, and domestic linear production has decreased recently [3]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From December 19 to 25, 2025, prices of Shandong propylene, Northeast Asia propylene, and other products changed, with daily changes such as a 75 - yuan increase in East China PP [3]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing, the basis is - 60, non - standard price spreads are neutral, import profit is around - 700, exports are good, and subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly [3]. PVC - **Price Data**: From December 19 to 25, 2025, prices of Northwest calcium carbide, Shandong caustic soda, and other products changed, with daily changes such as a 10 - yuan decrease in the price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China [3]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: The basis remains stable, downstream operating rates are seasonally weakening, mid - and upstream inventories are accumulating, and attention should be paid to new plant commissioning and export sustainability in Q4 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking spread rebounded, the monthly spread rebounded from a low level, and the basis rebounded. European high - sulfur cracking spread fluctuated, and the monthly spread weakened, while the EW continued to strengthen. The 0.5% cracking spread in Singapore weakened, the monthly spread fluctuated at a low level, and the basis also fluctuated at a low level. The European V low - sulfur cracking spread fluctuated at a low level [3][5]. - In terms of inventory, Singapore's residue oil inventory decreased, high - sulfur floating storage inventory increased, ARA's residue oil inventory was basically flat, Fujairah's residue oil inventory decreased significantly, high - sulfur floating storage inventory decreased, and EIA's residue oil inventory increased slightly [3][5]. - This week, the cracking spreads of gasoline and diesel in the external market continued to decline, and the price difference between low - sulfur and diesel continued to rebound. After the Al Zour refinery shut down due to a fire on October 21, the external low - sulfur market faced support, but the short - term upside space was limited [5]. - The global residue oil entered the off - season for inventory accumulation. The external cracking spread was affected by crude oil fluctuations and feedstock price premiums. This week, the external market's inventory decreased and the monthly spread strengthened, remaining volatile in the short term. The low - sulfur valuation was low but lacked a driving force [5]. 3. Data Summaries Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | 2025/12/19 | 2025/12/22 | 2025/12/23 | 2025/12/24 | 2025/12/25 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 323.91 | 332.23 | 333.06 | 331.79 | 331.98 | 0.19 | | 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 370.46 | 379.22 | 381.38 | 379.41 | 379.54 | 0.13 | | HSFO - Brent M1 | - 8.86 | - 8.91 | - 9.15 | - 9.49 | - 9.56 | - 0.07 | | 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 588.07 | 597.32 | 607.46 | 608.64 | 607.21 | - 1.43 | | VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 217.61 | - 218.10 | - 226.08 | - 229.23 | - 227.67 | 1.56 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 20.77 | 20.41 | 21.48 | 22.69 | - | - | | VLSFO - HSF M1 | 46.55 | 46.99 | 48.32 | 47.62 | 47.56 | - 0.06 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | 2025/12/19 | 2025/12/22 | 2025/12/23 | 2025/12/24 | 2025/12/25 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 380cst M1 | 335.69 | 340.79 | 347.07 | 347.60 | 344.23 | - 3.37 | | 180cst M1 | 342.69 | 347.66 | 352.82 | 352.53 | 349.23 | - 3.30 | | VLSFO M1 | 404.73 | 411.59 | 417.13 | 420.80 | 417.54 | - 3.26 | | GO M1 | 78.63 | 79.11 | 79.71 | 81.24 | 80.63 | - 0.61 | | 380cst - Brent M1 | - 6.57 | - 6.90 | - 6.88 | - 7.39 | - 7.63 | - 0.24 | | VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 177.13 | - 173.82 | - 172.72 | - 180.38 | - 179.12 | 1.26 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Product | 2025/12/19 | 2025/12/22 | 2025/12/23 | 2025/12/24 | 2025/12/25 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 332.35 | 337.57 | 344.15 | 343.65 | - | - | | FOB VLSFO | 403.41 | 410.73 | 416.98 | 417.55 | - | - | | 380 Basis | - 2.95 | - 2.80 | - 1.85 | - 1.60 | - | - | | High - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 2.9 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 5.3 | - | - | | Low - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 6.5 | 8.6 | 8.3 | 9.8 | - | - | [2] Domestic FU Data | Product | 2025/12/19 | 2025/12/22 | 2025/12/23 | 2025/12/24 | 2025/12/25 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2356 | 2413 | 2433 | 2415 | 2431 | 16 | | FU 05 | 2415 | 2474 | 2496 | 2498 | 2499 | 1 | | FU 09 | 2382 | 2440 | 2463 | 2468 | 2466 | - 2 | | FU 01 - 05 | - 59 | - 61 | - 63 | - 83 | - 68 | 15 | | FU 05 - 09 | 33 | 34 | 33 | 30 | 33 | 3 | | FU 09 - 01 | 26 | 27 | 30 | 53 | 35 | - 18 | [2] Domestic LU Data | Product | 2025/12/19 | 2025/12/22 | 2025/12/23 | 2025/12/24 | 2025/12/25 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 2886 | 2969 | 2976 | 3000 | 3070 | 70 | | LU 05 | 2912 | 2974 | 2994 | 3013 | 3008 | - 5 | | LU 09 | 2952 | 3010 | 3026 | 3039 | 3044 | 5 | | LU 01 - 05 | - | - 5 | - 18 | - 13 | 62 | 75 | | LU 05 - 09 | - 40 | - 36 | - 32 | - 26 | - 36 | - 10 | | LU 09 - 01 | 66 | 41 | 50 | 39 | - 26 | - 65 | [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the stock index market, although there is some uncertainty at the end of the year due to partial profit - taking by funds, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips as policy support for the capital market remains unchanged [4]. - In the bond market, short - term bonds are expected to fluctuate due to weak domestic demand and institutional behavior. Attention should be paid to the repair of the supply - demand relationship at the end of the year and the rebound after over - selling [6]. - For precious metals, considering the Fed's potential interest rate cuts and balance - sheet expansion, gold and silver prices are expected to be strong. It is recommended to hold long positions [10]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, different metals have different trends. For example, copper is expected to be in a high - level shock, aluminum to fluctuate, and zinc to be cautious about price shocks [13][15][17]. - In the black building materials market, steel prices are expected to remain in a bottom - range shock, and iron ore prices are expected to operate within a shock range [32][34]. - For energy and chemical products, different products have different strategies. For example, rubber can be short - term operated, and crude oil can be observed in the short - term [51][54]. - In the agricultural products market, different agricultural products such as hogs, eggs, and beans have different price trends and trading strategies [76][78][80]. Summary by Category Macro - financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: The central bank will conduct 400 billion yuan of MLF operations on December 25, 2025. Beijing has adjusted housing purchase restrictions, and multiple departments have urged e - commerce platforms to manage product quality. The Yanjiawo lithium mine in Yichun, Ningde is expected to resume production around the Spring Festival [2]. - **Strategy**: End - of - year profit - taking by some funds brings uncertainty, but the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On December 24, multiple departments in Beijing optimized housing policies. The central bank conducted 26 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Wednesday, with a net withdrawal of 20.8 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The short - term bond market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the supply - demand relationship repair and rebound [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold fell 0.23%, and silver rose 1.54%. US employment data exceeded expectations, suppressing precious metal prices in the short - term [8]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to hold long positions in gold and silver, with reference price ranges provided [10]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Offshore RMB strengthened, and copper prices rose. LME inventory decreased, and domestic demand was weak [12]. - **Strategy**: Copper prices are expected to be in a high - level shock, with a reference operating range provided [13]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rose. Domestic inventory increased slightly, and overseas inventory increased. Trading was light [14]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate, with a reference operating range provided [15]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rose. Zinc concentrate inventory increased, and LME zinc inventory increased [16]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious about price shocks caused by the departure of precious metal funds [17]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices rose. Lead concentrate inventory increased, and domestic lead supply tightened marginally [18]. - **Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to be strong in a wide - range in the short - term [19]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rose. Nickel ore prices were stable, and nickel iron prices increased slightly [20]. - **Strategy**: Although the surplus pressure is large, the short - term bottom may have appeared. It is recommended to observe [20]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices fell. Supply was stable at a high level but lacked upward momentum, and demand was weak [21]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe, with reference operating ranges provided [22]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: Carbonate lithium prices rose. The Yanjiawo lithium mine is expected to resume production around the Spring Festival [23][24]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe or lightly buy options, with a reference operating range provided [24]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices rose. Ore prices were expected to decline, and inventory was accumulating [25]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe in the short - term, with a reference operating range provided [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices rose. Indonesian nickel ore production targets were adjusted, and spot trading was light [27]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe and pay attention to policy implementation [27]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Casting aluminum alloy prices rose. Cost was firm, and supply was disrupted [28]. - **Strategy**: Prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [29]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: Steel prices rose slightly. Rebar supply and demand increased, and hot - rolled coil production decreased [31]. - **Strategy**: Steel prices are expected to remain in a bottom - range shock, and pay attention to policy impacts [32]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rose slightly. Overseas shipments decreased, and steel mill inventory was at a low level [33]. - **Strategy**: Iron ore prices are expected to operate within a shock range [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices rose, and soda ash prices rose slightly. Glass demand was weak, and soda ash inventory was accumulating [35][37]. - **Strategy**: Glass is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and it is recommended to short soda ash [36][38]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices fluctuated slightly. Spot prices were stable [39]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the impact of manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices rose, and polysilicon prices fell. Industrial silicon supply decreased slightly, and polysilicon demand was weak [42][44]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon is expected to follow market fluctuations, and polysilicon prices are unstable [43][46]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rose. There are different views on the market from bulls and bears [48]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to operate short - term and hold a hedging position [51]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil prices rose, and refined oil inventories decreased [52]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe in the short - term and test OPEC's export - supporting willingness [54]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices fluctuated. Port inventory decreased, but future pressure remains [55]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe, and the market is expected to consolidate at a low level [56]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices rose. Demand improved, and supply is expected to decline seasonally [57]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long at low prices [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene prices fell, and styrene prices rose. Supply and demand had different trends [59]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [61]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose. Supply was strong, and demand was weak [62]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [63]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. Supply was high, and inventory was accumulating [64]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious about the risk of price rebound due to increased maintenance [65]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose. Supply was under high - level maintenance, and demand was affected by the off - season [66]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips based on expectations [67]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: Para - xylene prices fell. Supply was high, and demand was weak [68]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices rose. Supply was high, and demand was in the off - season [70]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the LL5 - 9 spread at low prices [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices rose. Supply pressure was large, and demand was seasonally weak [72]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the supply - surplus situation to change in the first quarter of 2026 [73]. Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market Information**: Hog prices rose. Supply was large, and demand was stable [75]. - **Strategy**: Keep a short - term shock view and pay attention to long - term support [76]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable or fell. Supply was sufficient, and demand was average [77]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies in the short - term and pay attention to long - term pressure [78]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: CBOT soybeans rose. Domestic soybean inventory was high, and bean meal inventory increased [79]. - **Strategy**: Bean meal is expected to fluctuate [80]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Palm oil production and export data were mixed. Domestic oils and fats rebounded [81]. - **Strategy**: Observe high - frequency data for short - term operations [82]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices rebounded. Imported sugar supply decreased, and international production data was mixed [85]. - **Strategy**: International sugar prices may rebound after February, and domestic sugar prices may continue to rebound in the short - term [86]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices rose. Xinjiang may reduce cotton planting area, and import data was mixed [87][88]. - **Strategy**: Wait for a callback to go long [89].

合成橡胶产业日报 2025-12-24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 11395 | 220 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 99013 | -4086 | | | 合成橡胶2-3价差(日,元/吨) | -10 | 5 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 4560 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 东(日,元/吨) | 11000 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 0 | 10950 | 0 | | | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):上 | 11000 | 东(日,元/吨) 50 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,茂名石化):广 | 11150 | 50 | | | 海(日,元/吨) 基差:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) 布伦特原油(日,美元/桶) | -170 62.38 | 东(日,元/吨) -80 0.31 石脑油:CFR日本( ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The destocking cycle of styrene has ended, and the basis has weakened again. Overseas gasoline crack spreads are weak, reducing the support of overseas gasoline blending for pure benzene. Although the peak of pure benzene arrivals in China has passed, there is still some arrival pressure, and port inventories have continued to accumulate. The downstream styrene start - up has bottomed out and rebounded, while the non - styrene start - up is still poor. Styrene port inventories have rebounded again, entering the pre - holiday inventory accumulation cycle, and the downstream start - up has decreased again in the off - season [1][3] 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spreads - Pure benzene's main basis is - 100 yuan/ton (+34), and the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is - 135 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton). Styrene's main basis is 71 yuan/ton (+61 yuan/ton) [1] II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic and Foreign Spreads - Pure benzene's CFR China processing fee is 126 dollars/ton (- 6 dollars/ton), and FOB Korea processing fee is 119 dollars/ton (- 6 dollars/ton). Styrene's non - integrated production profit is - 190 yuan/ton (+30 yuan/ton), with an expected gradual compression [1] III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventories, Operating Rates - Pure benzene port inventory is 27.30 tons (+1.30 tons). Styrene's East China port inventory is 139,300 tons (+4,600 tons), and East China commercial inventory is 84,550 tons (+2,250 tons). Pure benzene's downstream operating rates vary: caprolactam is 69.20% (- 5.37%), phenol is 76.00% (- 3.50%), aniline is 61.35% (- 14.59%), and adipic acid is 59.60% (+0.40%). Styrene's operating rate is 69.1% (+0.8%) [1] IV. Styrene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - EPS production profit is 186 yuan/ton (+70 yuan/ton), PS production profit is 36 yuan/ton (- 30 yuan/ton), and ABS production profit is - 892 yuan/ton (+57 yuan/ton). EPS operating rate is 51.81% (- 1.96%), PS operating rate is 54.50% (- 3.80%), and ABS operating rate is 70.10% (- 0.43%) [2] V. Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Caprolactam production profit is - 350 yuan/ton (+0), phenol - acetone production profit is - 902 yuan/ton (+25), aniline production profit is 789 yuan/ton (+178), and adipic acid production profit is - 1018 yuan/ton (+0). Caprolactam operating rate is 69.20% (- 5.37%), phenol operating rate is 76.00% (- 3.50%), aniline operating rate is 61.35% (- 14.59%), and adipic acid operating rate is 59.60% (+0.40%) [1] 4. Strategies - Unilateral: None - Basis and inter - period: Do reverse arbitrage on BZ2603 - BZ2605 when the price is high - Cross - variety: Short BZ2603 and long PX2605 [4]

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-24 市场成交偏弱，钢价区间波动 玻璃纯碱：现货需求偏弱，玻碱窄幅震荡 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货偏弱震荡运行，现货方面，市场成交重心下移，下游按需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：玻璃产量高位震荡，供应收缩程度不足，刚需缺乏起色，供需矛盾依旧存在，且伴随春节临近，刚 需仍有进一步回落预期，叠加高库存压制，玻璃价格易跌难涨，持续关注玻璃冷修情况及宏观政策对玻璃投机需 求帶来的扰动。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货窄幅震荡运行，现货方面，下游观望情绪浓厚，刚需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：纯碱产量虽有下降，但仍处于同期较高位，且伴随新产线投产，纯碱供给或有进一步增加预期。目 前库存高位震荡，且考虑到后期浮法玻璃冷修计划仍有增加预期，重碱需求面临挑战，持续关注下游需求情况对 纯碱价格的影响。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡偏弱 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 供需与逻辑：上周硅铁产量大幅回落，企业主动调整生产节奏，应对需求下滑。硅铁企业库存压力得到缓解，硅 铁基本面矛盾有所缓和。关注后续硅铁去库情况、成本端变化及产区政策情况。 策略 硅锰方面：震荡 硅铁方面：震荡 风险 房地产政策、宏观数据 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking spread rebounded, the monthly spread rebounded from a low level, and the basis rebounded. European high - sulfur cracking spread fluctuated, the monthly spread weakened, and the EW continued to strengthen. The 0.5% cracking spread in Singapore weakened, the monthly spread fluctuated at a low level, and the basis fluctuated at a low level. European V low - sulfur cracking spread fluctuated at a low level [3]. - In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual fuel oil inventory decreased, high - sulfur floating storage inventory increased, ARA's residual fuel oil inventory was basically flat, Fujairah's residual fuel oil inventory decreased significantly, high - sulfur floating storage inventory decreased, and EIA's residual fuel oil inventory increased slightly [3]. - This week, the cracking spreads of gasoline and diesel in the external market continued to decline, and the price difference between low - sulfur fuel oil and diesel continued to rebound. After the fire at the Al Zour refinery on October 21, it stopped production, providing support for the external low - sulfur fuel oil market, but the short - term upward space is limited. Global residual fuel oil enters the off - season for inventory accumulation. The external cracking spread should pay attention to crude oil fluctuations and feedstock premium/discount levels. This week, the external market's inventory decreased and the monthly spread strengthened, remaining volatile in the short term. The valuation of low - sulfur fuel oil is low, but there is no driving force [4]. 3. Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data - From December 17 to December 23, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 increased from 325.12 to 335.28, a change of 3.05. The price of Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 increased from 368.94 to 383.22, a change of 4.00 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Data - From December 17 to December 23, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 increased from 337.69 to 348.22, a change of 7.43. The price of Singapore VLSFO M1 increased from 404.54 to 419.72, a change of 8.13 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From December 17 to December 23, 2025, the FOB price of 380cst increased from 333.61 to 344.15, a change of 6.58. The FOB price of VLSFO increased from 404.59 to 416.98, a change of 6.25 [2]. Domestic FU Data - From December 17 to December 23, 2025, the price of FU 01 increased from 2384 to 2433, a change of 20. The price of FU 05 increased from 2444 to 2496, a change of 22. The price of FU 09 increased from 2412 to 2463, a change of 23 [2]. Domestic LU Data - From December 17 to December 23, 2025, the price of LU 01 increased from 2864 to 2976, a change of 7. The price of LU 05 increased from 2912 to 2994, a change of 20. The price of LU 09 increased from 2956 to 3026, a change of 16 [3].

re 国际期货 TTGE _1X2 inks l留朗尚 | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[ 2012 ]31号 [TC 国贸期货 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 烯数据 25 | | | | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 投资咨询证:20017251 2025/12/23 | | | | | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格证:F3066728 = | | | | | 指标 | | 2025/12/19 | 2025/12/22 | 变动值 | 现货综述 | | | | | | WTI | 56. 15 | 56. 66 | 0. 51 | | | | | | 原油& | Brent | 59. 82 | 60. 47 | 0. 65 | | | | | | 石脑油 | 石脑油 | 534. 88 | 530. 88 | | 苯乙烯:江苏市场震荡整理。市场有部分买盘支撑, | | | | | | | | | | 和苯乙烯主力盘整理,江苏港口 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the high - sulfur crack spread rebounded, the monthly spread rebounded from a low level, and the basis rebounded. The European high - sulfur crack spread fluctuated, the monthly spread weakened, and the EW continued to strengthen. The 0.5% crack spread in Singapore weakened, the monthly spread fluctuated at a low level, and the basis fluctuated at a low level. The European V low - sulfur crack spread fluctuated at a low level [3]. - In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual oil inventory decreased, high - sulfur floating storage inventory increased, ARA's residual oil inventory remained basically flat, Fujairah's residual oil inventory decreased significantly, high - sulfur floating storage inventory decreased, and EIA's residual oil inventory increased slightly [3]. - This week, the crack spreads of gasoline and diesel in the external market continued to decline, and the price difference between low - sulfur fuel oil and diesel continued to rebound. After the Al Zour refinery shut down due to a fire on October 21, the external low - sulfur fuel oil market faced support, but the short - term upward space was limited [4]. - The global residual oil market entered the off - season for inventory accumulation. The external crack spreads should pay attention to crude oil price fluctuations and feedstock premium/discount levels. This week, the external market's inventory decreased and the monthly spread strengthened, and it remained volatile in the short term. The valuation of low - sulfur fuel oil was low, but there was no driving force [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From December 16 to December 22, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 increased from 316.99 to 333.50, a change of 9.59; the price of Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 increased from 364.37 to 380.56, a change of 10.10; the Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 changed from - 8.87 to - 8.94, a change of - 0.08; the Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 increased from 588.11 to 601.54, a change of 13.47; the Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 changed from - 223.74 to - 220.98, a change of - 3.37; the LGO - Brent M1 increased from 22.32 to 21.09, a change of 0.32; the Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 increased from 47.38 to 47.06, a change of 0.51 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From December 16 to December 22, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 increased from 332.73 to 347.26, a change of 11.57; the price of Singapore 180cst M1 increased from 341.31 to 353.38, a change of 10.69; the price of Singapore VLSFO M1 increased from 406.98 to 417.31, a change of 12.58; the price of Singapore Gasoil M1 increased from 79.66 to 80.10, a change of 1.47; the Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 changed from - 7.27 to - 6.81, a change of - 0.24; the Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 changed from - 182.50 to - 175.43, a change of 1.70 [1][7]. Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From December 16 to December 22, 2025, the FOB 380cst price increased from 328.39 to 337.57, a change of 5.22; the FOB VLSFO price increased from 407.01 to 410.73, a change of 7.32; the 380 basis changed from - 4.05 to - 2.80, a change of 0.15; the high - sulfur internal - external price difference increased from 2.3 to 5.0, a change of 2.1; the low - sulfur internal - external price difference increased from 3.7 to 8.6, a change of 2.1 [2]. Domestic FU Data - From December 16 to December 22, 2025, the price of FU 01 increased from 2368 to 2413, a change of 57; the price of FU 05 increased from 2431 to 2474, a change of 59; the price of FU 09 increased from 2400 to 2440, a change of 58; the FU 01 - 05 changed from - 63 to - 61, a change of - 2; the FU 05 - 09 changed from 31 to 34, a change of 1; the FU 09 - 01 changed from 32 to 27, a change of 1 [2]. Domestic LU Data - From December 16 to December 22, 2025, the price of LU 01 increased from 2900 to 2969, a change of 83; the price of LU 05 increased from 2934 to 2974, a change of 62; the price of LU 09 increased from 2977 to 3010, a change of 58; the LU 01 - 05 changed from - 34 to - 5; the LU 05 - 09 changed from - 43 to - 36, a change of 4; the LU 09 - 01 changed from 77 to 41, a change of - 25 [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical factors such as the situations in Venezuela, Russia - Ukraine, and the Middle East are continuously disturbing the crude oil market, causing oil prices to fluctuate. Different raw materials have varying impacts on downstream chemical products. The market has entered an expectation - trading phase dominated by funds, with extreme price differences among some varieties, and there is a possibility of reverse fluctuations due to capital disturbances. The inventories of three major liquefied chemical products (EB, BZ, and EG) have all increased on a month - on - month basis [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Overview - Geopolitical factors are disturbing the crude oil market, including the US's intensified blockade of Venezuela, the key stage of Russia - Ukraine peace negotiations, and potential Israeli attacks on Iran. Coal inventories are high due to lower - than - expected seasonal demand. The different performances of raw materials have implications for downstream chemical products [2]. - After the main contracts shifted to the 05 contracts, the market entered an expectation - trading phase dominated by funds. Polyolefins are considered for short - selling, while PX is favored for long - buying. The inventories of EB, BZ, and EG have all increased, with BZ inventory increasing by 5% month - on - month, and BZ and EB port inventories at a five - year high, and EG inventory approaching the five - year median [3]. 2. Performance of Each Variety Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors in Venezuela, Russia - Ukraine, and other regions continue to disturb the market, and oil prices continue to fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: Overseas refined oil inventories are accumulating rapidly, and the pressure of crude oil inventory is mainly reflected in floating storage. The supply - surplus situation persists. Geopolitical factors dominate short - term price fluctuations, and there is a phased support of geopolitical premium near the annual low [4][8]. - **Outlook**: The supply - surplus pattern continues, and geopolitical expectations are unstable. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate near the annual low in the short term [8]. Bitumen - **Viewpoint**: The situation between the US and Venezuela has heated up again, and bitumen futures prices have risen. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ is increasing production in December, and there is still a possibility of a Russia - Ukraine agreement. The situation between the US and Venezuela has driven up bitumen futures prices. If there is a substantial supply disruption, bitumen futures prices will be strong; otherwise, they may fall after rising. The pricing of bitumen futures has returned to Shandong spot prices, and the high valuation of bitumen is being revised downward. Bitumen is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and there is still great pressure on inventory accumulation [9]. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of bitumen is overvalued [9]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors have driven up the futures prices of high - sulfur fuel oil. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ is increasing production in December, and there is still a possibility of a Russia - Ukraine agreement. Tensions between the US and Venezuela have led to a rebound in high - sulfur fuel oil. However, the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is currently suppressed by high floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region. The three driving forces for high - sulfur fuel oil (Russia - Ukraine conflict, refinery procurement, and Palestine - Israel conflict) are currently weak, and fuel oil demand is still weak [9]. - **Outlook**: Supply and demand are weak [9]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the rise of crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the trend of crude oil. It has strong product attributes but faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. Its valuation is low and is expected to fluctuate with crude oil. Domestically, the pressure on refined oil supply is increasing, which may be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil, resulting in an increase in supply and a decline in demand. Overseas, unexpected maintenance and unstable operation of some refineries have led to an unexpected decline in supply and an increase in valuation [11]. - **Outlook**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by green fuel substitution and insufficient high - sulfur substitution demand space, but its current valuation is low and it will fluctuate with crude oil [11]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The situation in coastal and inland areas is relatively stalemate, and methanol is expected to fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: The inland market is weak, with high freight rates and general downstream follow - up. Although Iranian imports are expected to decrease in the long term, coastal port inventories are still at a historical high, and the arrival volume may be high in the short term. The trading logic in coastal areas is unclear, and the unloading rhythm of arriving ships may be a key variable [30]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [30]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: Both supply and demand are weak, and the futures market fluctuates and consolidates. - **Main Logic**: On December 22, 2025, the urea supply was affected by gas restrictions and maintenance, and the operating rate fell below 80%. However, due to the new production capacity put into operation throughout the year, the daily output was still above 190,000 tons, maintaining pressure on the market. On the demand side, there is still support from off - season storage, compound fertilizer procurement, and export port collection, but the downstream's acceptance of the increased price is low, and the actual follow - up is cautious [31]. - **Outlook**: The short - term market is expected to fluctuate and may weaken. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of enterprises, the progress of off - season storage, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories [31]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Viewpoint**: There is still room for an increase in the load, and the spot circulation remains loose. - **Main Logic**: With the restart of some devices, the supply has increased again, and there are expectations of increased production from other devices. The overall spot circulation of ethylene glycol remains loose, and the inventory accumulation period is expected to last until February. The market sentiment needs time to recover, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [22][24]. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate within a range in the short term, and the long - term inventory pressure is still large, so the rebound height is limited [24]. PX - **Viewpoint**: Boosted by sentiment, PX maintains a strong consolidation, and profits continue to expand. - **Main Logic**: The market is optimistic about the medium - and long - term pattern of PX, and bullish funds continue to bet. Geopolitical factors have driven up oil prices, and the resonance of cost and sentiment has led to the continued rise of PX and the expansion of PXN. Currently, the industrial chain profits are overly concentrated upstream, squeezing the cash flow of PTA and polyester. Attention should be paid to whether there will be unexpected production cuts or early holidays in the polyester industry [13][14]. - **Outlook**: PX is expected to consolidate strongly under the influence of expectations and market sentiment. PXN is expected to fluctuate within the range of [300, 380] US dollars per ton. The positive spread logic of PX remains [14]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: With cost support, the outlook is positive, and the processing margin on the futures market has been significantly repaired. - **Main Logic**: The upstream PX is still strong, providing cost support for PTA. The supply - demand pattern of PTA is still tight, and the export data in November was good, boosting market confidence. The BIS certification cancellation has a continuous positive impact, and it is expected that the export performance in December will still improve. PTA is expected to maintain a de - stocking pattern, and the seasonal inventory accumulation in January - February is less than in previous years. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly following the raw materials [14][15]. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate strongly following the cost, and the processing margin will operate within a range with limited expansion space. It is recommended to go long on the TA05 contract at low prices and take profit at around 5100. A positive spread strategy can be adopted for TA05 - 09 [15]. Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The upstream cost support has strengthened, but the cost cannot be fully passed on, and the profit is compressed. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polyester raw materials are rising, providing cost support for polyester short - fiber. However, the downstream's willingness to accept high prices is low, resulting in poor sales of polyester short - fiber. The cost cannot be fully passed on, and the profit is compressed due to the off - season expectation [25][26]. - **Outlook**: The price of short - fiber will fluctuate with the upstream, and the support for the processing margin has increased. The position of going long on TA and shorting PF should be closed for profit [26]. Bottle Chip - **Viewpoint**: The upstream raw material cost supports the price. - **Main Logic**: The upstream raw material futures have risen strongly, and polyester bottle - chip factories have mostly raised their prices. The trading volume in the polyester bottle - chip market is acceptable. In the short term, the price will fluctuate strongly following the raw materials [27]. - **Outlook**: The absolute price will fluctuate with the raw materials, and the overall support for the processing margin has increased [27]. Propylene (PL) - **Viewpoint**: The spot is strong, and the expectation of PDH maintenance supports PL to fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of PDH maintenance still provides support. On the spot side, the inventory of propylene enterprises is controllable, and the offer is stable, with only a few prices slightly adjusted downward. The downstream buying is cautious, and there is no significant change in trading. In the short term, the profit of powder is under pressure, and the decline in the operating rate has a negative impact [35]. - **Outlook**: PL is expected to fluctuate in the short term [35]. PP - **Viewpoint**: The expectation of maintenance supports PP to fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: The profit of PDH is under short - term pressure, and the valuation support of gas - based refineries has increased, with a strong expectation of increased maintenance. Geopolitical factors affect the short - term price of oil, and there is a phased support of geopolitical premium near the annual low, but there is still great downward pressure in the next quarter. The downstream of PP is in the off - season, and the purchasing mentality is cautious. The current trading of maintenance is mainly focused on the expectation for January 2026, and the actual supply pressure is still large, with high inventory [34]. - **Outlook**: PP is expected to fluctuate in the short term [34]. Plastic (LLDPE) - **Viewpoint**: The support of maintenance is limited, and plastic fluctuates weakly. - **Main Logic**: The oil price fluctuates, and geopolitical factors affect the short - term price. There is a phased support of geopolitical premium near the annual low, but there is great downward pressure in the next quarter. The fundamental support of plastic itself is still limited, with limited pressure on the profits of oil, coal, and ethane production, and a weaker expectation of supply reduction compared to PP. The upstream and mid - stream still have the intention to reduce inventory at high prices, which will suppress the price. The overall demand for plastic is entering the off - season, and the sustainability of the short - term increase in downstream trading volume is questionable [33]. - **Outlook**: Plastic is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [33]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: New export transactions and a strong aromatic atmosphere have led to the intraday rise of styrene. - **Main Logic**: Recently, styrene has been fluctuating weakly. The downstream ABS has shown negative feedback, with some enterprises reducing their loads. The liquidity of styrene has increased, and the basis and profit have weakened. In the short term, the support comes from the external pure benzene, while the upper limit is restricted by the pure benzene inventory pressure and the shift of styrene to inventory accumulation [20][21]. - **Outlook**: Styrene is about to shift to inventory accumulation, and the upstream has difficulty in reducing inventory and still faces great pressure. The upper limit is obvious, and export transactions will stimulate short - term rebounds [21]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: There is insufficient driving force, and the futures market fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the short - term emotional boost of the "anti - involution" policy on low - valuation varieties needs to be observed for implementation. At the micro level, the supply - demand situation of PVC has improved marginally due to overseas capacity withdrawal and domestic marginal enterprise production cuts, but the over - supply expectation cannot be reversed. The domestic production may remain stable, the downstream operating rate is seasonally weak, the export orders are good this week, and the calcium carbide price is under pressure [37]. - **Outlook**: The de - stocking driven by production cuts will probably limit the rebound space of PVC. The over - supply situation cannot be reversed in the medium term, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate [37]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: With low valuation and weak expectation, caustic soda may fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the short - term emotional boost of the "anti - involution" policy on low - valuation varieties needs to be observed for implementation. At the micro level, although the short - term de - stocking in Shandong has occurred, if the alumina production is reduced and the upstream maintains a high operating rate, the supply - demand of caustic soda will still be in excess. The profit of marginal alumina devices is poor, the inventory of Weiquan is high, the demand for caustic soda will be boosted by the new alumina project in Guangxi in Q1 2026, the non - aluminum operating rate is weak, and the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is low [39][40]. - **Outlook**: The market sentiment is positive in the short term, and the upstream in Shandong is de - stocking. However, the supply - demand is under pressure in the long term, and the market may wait and see [40]. 3. Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties have changed. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of PX decreased by 86 yuan per ton, and the 5 - 9 month spread of PP decreased by 15 yuan per ton [42]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of different varieties also show different changes. For example, the basis of bitumen decreased by 76 yuan per ton, and the warehouse receipt was 54,100 lots [43]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads have also changed. For example, the 1 - month spread of PP - 3MA decreased by 104 yuan per ton, and the 1 - month spread of TA - EG increased by 157 yuan per ton [45]. Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring There is no specific content provided in the given text for in - depth analysis of this part. 4. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, specialty index, and sector index of the commodity index all showed different degrees of increase on December 22, 2025. The comprehensive index increased by 1.10%, the commodity 20 index increased by 1.34%, and the industrial products index increased by 0.79%. The energy index increased by 2.32% on the day, 1.47% in the past 5 days, decreased by 2.08% in the past month, and decreased by 10.72% since the beginning of the year [284][285].