Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the restart of previously overhauled devices, the short - term domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber is expected to increase, and the inventories of production and trading enterprises are expected to rise slightly [2]. - Last week, tire companies had insufficient orders, with some arranging overhauls and others reducing production, dragging down the capacity utilization rate. As the production scheduling of overhauled enterprises gradually recovers, the capacity utilization rate of tire companies this week may show a restorative increase, but the overall demand improvement space is limited, and enterprises' production control will continue, restricting the increase in capacity utilization rate [2]. - The br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,000 - 10,500 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 10,360 yuan/ton, and the position volume is 63,030, a decrease of 5,705 [2]. - The 1 - 2 spread of synthetic rubber is 5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10; the warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,880 tons, a decrease of 80 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,500 yuan/ton (unchanged), from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,450 yuan/ton (a decrease of 50), from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 10,500 yuan/ton (unchanged), and from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 10,650 yuan/ton (a decrease of 50) [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber is 140 yuan/ton, and the spread is - 90 [2]. - Brent crude oil is 62.48 dollars/barrel (a decrease of 0.89), WTI crude oil is 57.95 dollars/barrel (a decrease of 0.89), the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 730 dollars/ton (unchanged), the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 560.88 dollars/ton (a decrease of 1.75), the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 820 dollars/ton (a decrease of 20), and the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 7,150 yuan/ton (a decrease of 25) [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 159,400 tons (an increase of 3,800), and the capacity utilization rate is 72.53% (a decrease of 0.49 percentage points) [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene is 39,800 tons (an increase of 10,800), and the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 54.26% (an increase of 1.01 percentage points) [2]. - The monthly production of cis - butadiene rubber is 137,600 tons (an increase of 7,200), and the weekly capacity utilization rate is 72.64% (an increase of 2.72 percentage points) [2]. - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is 284 yuan/ton (a decrease of 352), the social inventory is 31,500 tons (an increase of 700), the manufacturer's inventory is 26,630 tons (an increase of 780), and the trader's inventory is 4,880 tons (a decrease of 90) [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 70.05% (a decrease of 3.63 percentage points), and that of full - steel tires is 62.25% (a decrease of 2.25 percentage points) [2]. - The monthly production of full - steel tires is 12.42 million pieces (a decrease of 720,000), and that of semi - steel tires is 51.68 million pieces (a decrease of 8.57 million) [2]. - The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong are 40.24 days (an increase of 0.69), and those of semi - steel tires are 45.86 days (an increase of 0.5) [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, a decrease of 3.63 percentage points month - on - month and 10.40 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, a decrease of 2.25 percentage points month - on - month and an increase of 1.56 percentage points year - on - year. Enterprises had insufficient orders, with some arranging overhauls and others reducing production, dragging down the capacity utilization rate [2]. - In October 2025, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber was 137,600 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.52% and a year - on - year increase of 24.07%. The capacity utilization rate was 71.39%, an increase of 1.46 percentage points from the previous period and 10.93 percentage points from the same period last year. Most previously overhauled cis - butadiene rubber devices restarted, and domestic production increased restoratively. Recently, the raw material buyers actively followed up, and the cost support of cis - butadiene rubber strengthened slightly [2]. - As of November 19, the domestic inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 31,500 tons, an increase of 700 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.24%. This period, the raw material buyers actively followed up, the cost support of cis - butadiene rubber strengthened slightly, the supply prices of Sinopec and PetroChina resources increased, but the spot resources remained tight. High - premium offers were difficult to attract buyers, and private enterprises' price - holding was also difficult to get terminal follow - up, with some transactions weakening [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The EG basis continued to decline. The closing price of the EG main contract was 3,873 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan/ton or - 0.28% from the previous trading day), the EG spot price in the East China market was 3,918 yuan/ton (up 18 yuan/ton or + 0.46% from the previous trading day), and the EG East China spot basis was 23 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 62 US dollars/ton (up 8 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - based syngas - based EG was - 1,049 yuan/ton (up 52 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - The MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 73.2 tons (unchanged month - on - month) according to CCF data and 63.3 tons (up 1.5 tons month - on - month) according to Longzhong data. The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week were 9.5 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports were 1.4 tons, which was slightly lower than neutral. The inventory was expected to remain stable with a slight decrease [2]. - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load decreased from a high level, and some short - process oil refinery plants faced great production pressure. Overseas ethylene glycol plant changes were limited, and the port inventory was expected to remain stable in the short term, but there were still plans for large Saudi vessels to arrive at the port in early December. On the demand side, the polyester load with low inventory was still supported, but the orders showed a marginal weakening [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3,873 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan/ton or - 0.28% from the previous trading day), and the EG spot price in the East China market was 3,918 yuan/ton (up 18 yuan/ton or + 0.46% from the previous trading day). The EG East China spot basis was 23 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 62 US dollars/ton (up 8 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - based syngas - based EG was - 1,049 yuan/ton (up 52 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - The domestic ethylene glycol load decreased from a high level, and some short - process oil refinery plants faced great production pressure [2]. International Price Difference - No specific international price difference data was provided in the text. Downstream Production, Sales and Operating Rate - The polyester load with low inventory was still supported, but the orders showed a marginal weakening [2]. Inventory Data - The MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 73.2 tons (unchanged month - on - month) according to CCF data and 63.3 tons (up 1.5 tons month - on - month) according to Longzhong data. The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week were 9.5 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports were 1.4 tons, which was slightly lower than neutral. The inventory was expected to remain stable with a slight decrease [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The document does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The log futures are currently in a low - level oscillation. Last week, the spot price was adjusted downward. The supply side has a continuous increase in arrivals, and inventory accumulation is putting significant pressure on the market. Demand remains resilient. The valuation of the futures contract is relatively low, and the significant inversion between domestic and foreign prices forms a certain support for import costs. Overall, in the context of a weak fundamental situation, the log futures market is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On November 25, the prices of log 2601, log 2603, and log 2605 were 764.5, 777.0, and 792.0 respectively, with decreases of - 0.46%, - 0.26%, and - 0.38% compared to November 24 [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of various types of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged on November 25 compared to November 24, with a 0.00% change [2]. - **Cost**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate on November 25 was 7.094 yuan, a decrease of 0.01 yuan compared to November 24, and the import theoretical cost was 808.91 yuan, a decrease of 1.28 yuan [2]. Supply - **Monthly Supply**: In October, the port throughput was 201.3 million cubic meters, a 13.99% increase compared to September. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 54, a 17.39% increase compared to the previous period [2]. - **Inventory**: As of November 21, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 303 million cubic meters, an 8 - million - cubic - meter increase compared to November 14, with a 2.71% increase. The inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu also had corresponding changes [2][3]. Demand - The daily average outbound volume of logs in China decreased by 0.12 million cubic meters from November 14 to November 21, a 2% decrease. The daily average outbound volume in Shandong and Jiangsu also decreased [3]. Forecast - From November 24 to November 30, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 6, a 54% week - on - week decrease, and the arrival volume was about 21.7 million cubic meters, a 48% week - on - week decrease [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In the pure benzene market, with the peak of autumn maintenance in European and American refineries passing and the resumption of refinery operations, the most critical period for gasoline supply may have passed. The rhythmical arrival of pure benzene at ports increases the pressure, leading to a further rise in port inventories at the beginning of the week, which suppresses the performance of pure benzene processing fees. Downstream operations are still at a low level, with the operation rate of phenol rising, while those of aniline and adipic acid declining. Styrene is still in the maintenance period and is expected to resume operations at the end of the month [2]. - In the styrene market, port inventories did not continue to decline, and the arrival of goods increased rhythmically. Styrene is still in the low - operation maintenance stage, and the resumption plan has been postponed. Attention now shifts to the downstream. Currently, downstream operations are still at a low level. The operation rate of EPS, which has obvious seasonality, is expected to further decline at the end of the year, while those of ABS and PS are slightly rising from a low level, and there is still inventory pressure on PS and ABS [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spreads - Not elaborated in detail in the summary part, only mentioned figures related to pure benzene's basis and futures contracts, and EB's basis and spreads [1][7][12] II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Internal - External Spreads - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee is 101 dollars/ton (-10 dollars/ton), and the FOB South Korea processing fee is 89 dollars/ton (-9 dollars/ton). The profit of downstream products varies, with caprolactam at -850 yuan/ton (+275), phenol - acetone at -415 yuan/ton (+0), aniline at 499 yuan/ton (+3), and adipic acid at -1245 yuan/ton (+23) [1]. - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit is -223 yuan/ton (+30 yuan/ton), with an expected gradual compression [1]. III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventories, Operation Rates - Pure benzene: The port inventory is 16.40 tons (+1.70 tons), and the downstream operation rate is generally low, with the phenol operation rate rising, and those of aniline and adipic acid falling [1][2]. - Styrene: The East China port inventory is 164,200 tons (+15,900 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 94,200 tons (+6,900 tons), and the operation rate is 69.0% (-0.3%). It is still in the maintenance period, and the resumption plan is postponed [1][2]. IV. Styrene Downstream Operation and Production Profits - EPS production profit is 105 yuan/ton (-10 yuan/ton), operation rate is 56.27% (+4.64%); PS production profit is 5 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton), operation rate is 55.90% (+0.50%); ABS production profit is -493 yuan/ton (+2 yuan/ton), operation rate is 72.40% (+0.60%). EPS is expected to have a further decline in operation rate at the end of the year, while ABS and PS have a slight increase from a low level, and there is still inventory pressure on PS and ABS [1][2]. V. Pure Benzene Downstream Operation and Production Profits - Caprolactam operation rate is 88.23% (+2.18%), phenol operation rate is 79.00% (+12.00%), aniline operation rate is 75.68% (-4.49%), adipic acid operation rate is 55.50% (-6.50%). The production profits of downstream products vary as mentioned above [1]. 4. Strategies - Unilateral: No strategy provided. - Basis and Inter - Period: Consider a positive inter - period spread arbitrage for EB2512 - EB2601 at low prices. - Cross - Variety: Consider widening the spread for EB2512 - BZ2603 at low prices [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the reports. Core Views Methanol - Short - term outlook is oscillating and slightly bullish. Inner - land marginal devices are in the red, and attention should be paid to their operation. Iranian devices are starting to limit gas and stop production, but the current shipment volume is still high [1][2]. Polyolefin - PP shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with reduced maintenance driving supply recovery and slight inventory depletion. PE shows supply increasing and demand decreasing, with inventory slightly accumulating under the pressure of new production capacity. The 01 contract is under relatively high pressure [6]. Natural Rubber - The market is expected to enter a range - bound consolidation. The inventory is in a seasonal accumulation cycle, and terminal demand support is insufficient. The price trend depends on the raw material output in the main production areas and macro - level changes [7]. Crude Oil - Oil prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly. Affected by news, the geopolitical premium is declining, and the supply - demand pattern is weak. Short - term attention should be paid to the support level of Brent at $60 per barrel and the results of the Russia - Ukraine negotiations [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Short - term drive is limited, but the medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and it is expected to be in a high - level oscillation in the short term. - PTA: The supply - demand is expected to be tight in November - December, but loose from December to the first quarter. The absolute price is relatively firm in the short term, but the rebound space is limited. - Ethylene Glycol: Expected to oscillate at a low level. - Short - fiber: The absolute price drive is limited, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed. - Bottle chips: The supply - demand is in a loose pattern, and the processing fee is expected to decline [11]. Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene: Supply is generally loose, demand support is limited, and the price may be adjusted due to the drag of oil prices in the short term. - Styrene: Although the short - term supply - demand is expected to improve, the overall drive is limited, and the 01 contract should be treated with oscillation [13]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda Ash: The overall supply - demand pattern is bearish. Although there is short - term inventory depletion, the medium - term demand is expected to remain rigid. - Glass: There is short - term rigid demand support, but there are concerns about the long - term demand, and the price may be under pressure [14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand is under pressure, and the price is expected to be weak. - PVC: The supply - demand is in an oversupply pattern, and the price is difficult to be optimistic, continuing the weak trend [15]. Summary by Directory Methanol - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 and MA2605 closed down, while the regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia's northern line increased by 8.70%. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all decreased, with port inventory down 4.16% [1]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased slightly, while some downstream operating rates such as formaldehyde and glacial acetic acid increased [2]. Polyolefin - **Price and Spread**: L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 all closed down, and the regional spreads and basis had different degrees of changes. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise and social inventories decreased to varying degrees. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: PE and PP device operating rates decreased, while some downstream operating rates increased slightly [6]. Natural Rubber - **Price and Spread**: Spot prices such as Yunnan state - owned whole latex decreased, and the basis and non - standard price spread changed. - **Fundamentals**: Production in major producing countries decreased, tire production and exports decreased, and inventory increased. - **Inventory**: Bonded area inventory and warehouse futures inventory increased [7]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices changed, and the spreads between different contracts also changed. - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil prices decreased, and the spreads between different contracts also decreased. - **Refined Oil Cracking Spread**: The cracking spreads of various refined oils decreased [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Polyester Product Price and Cash Flow**: The prices of some polyester products decreased, and the cash flow and processing fees had different degrees of changes. - **PX - related Price and Spread**: PX prices and spreads changed, and the supply was relatively high while the demand was weak. - **PTA - related Price and Spread**: PTA prices and spreads changed, and the supply - demand was expected to change in different periods. - **MEG - related Price and Spread**: MEG prices and spreads changed, and the supply - demand was expected to be in a low - level oscillation. - **Short - fiber and Bottle - chip Price and Spread**: Short - fiber prices and spreads changed, and bottle - chip supply - demand was loose [11]. Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and related raw materials changed, and the spreads and import profits also changed. - **Styrene - related Price and Spread**: Styrene prices and spreads changed, and the cash flow improved. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories increased, and the operating rates of related industries changed [13]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass Price and Spread**: Glass prices in different regions and futures prices had different degrees of changes. - **Soda Ash Price and Spread**: Soda ash prices in different regions and futures prices changed, and the inventory decreased. - **Production and Inventory**: Soda ash production decreased, and glass and soda ash inventories changed. - **Real Estate Data**: Real estate new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas had different degrees of change [14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda and their spreads changed. - **Supply and Demand**: The operating rates of PVC and caustic soda supply - side and demand - side industries changed, and the inventory changed [15].

Report Overview - The report is a Polyolefin Morning Report dated November 26, 2025, focusing on LLDPE and PP [2] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - LLDPE and PP are expected to show a volatile trend today due to factors such as oversupply, weak downstream demand, and high - neutral industrial inventories [4][6] Summary by Content LLDPE Analysis - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 points from the previous month. After the China - US leaders' meeting, some restrictions were lifted. OPEC+ adjusted the oil market from undersupply to oversupply, causing oil prices to fall. Agricultural film demand declined, and other film demands were mainly for rigid needs. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 6840, and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 78, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.2%, which is bullish [4] - **Inventory**: PE comprehensive inventory is 554,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons, which is bearish [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile today due to oversupply, falling downstream demand, and high - neutral inventory [4] - **Likely Factors**: Bullish factors include new sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and the phased easing of China - US relations; bearish factors are weak demand compared to the same period and many new production projects in the fourth quarter [5] PP Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the economic environment is affected by PMI decline and oil market adjustment. The demand for plastic weaving is average, while the demand for pipes has increased. The current PP delivery spot price is 6380, and the overall fundamentals are bearish [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 63, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.0%, which is neutral [6] - **Inventory**: PP comprehensive inventory is 594,000 tons, a decrease of 26,000 tons, which is bearish [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, which is bearish [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile today due to oversupply, average downstream demand, and high - neutral inventory [6] - **Likely Factors**: Similar to LLDPE, bullish factors are new sanctions on Russian oil and China - US relations easing; bearish factors are weak demand compared to the same period and many new production projects in the fourth quarter [7] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence gradually decreased. The production capacity in 2025E is expected to reach 43.195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also showed an upward trend, and the import dependence decreased. The production capacity in 2025E is expected to reach 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15] Price and Inventory Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of the delivery product is 6840, the price of the 01 contract is 6762, down 31. The basis is 78, and the warehouse receipt is 11,701, a decrease of 20. PE comprehensive factory inventory is 554,000 tons, and social inventory is 471,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons [8] - **PP**: The spot price of the delivery product is 6380, the price of the 01 contract is 6317, down 55. The basis is 63, and the warehouse receipt is 15,668, a decrease of 65. PP comprehensive factory inventory is 594,000 tons, and social inventory is 321,000 tons [8]

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年11月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：ICAC11月报：25/26年度产量2540万吨，消费2500万吨。USDA11月报：25/26年度 产量2614.5万吨，消费2588.3万吨，期末库存1653.2万吨。海关：10月纺织品服装出口 222.62亿美元，同比下降12.63%。10月份我国棉花进口9万吨，同比减少15.6%；棉纱进口14 万吨，同比增加16.7%。农村部11月25/26年度：产量660万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨， 期末库存845万吨。中性。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价14832，基差1187（01合约 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but gives a medium - term outlook for each variety, including "Oscillation", "Oscillation with an upward bias", etc. 2. Core View The fundamentals of steel are improving, and the macro - environment is warm with the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December, overseas interest - rate cut expectations, and positive signals from the China - US presidential call. However, as the off - season deepens, the fundamentals have limited highlights, and the rebound momentum of the futures market weakens. Iron ore prices are strong due to expected restocking demand, and coking coal fundamentals are not significantly weakened, with support for far - month contracts. Glass prices are suppressed by high inventory, and soda ash prices are restricted by oversupply despite cost support [3]. 3. Summary by Variety Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments decreased, arrivals increased this period, and port inventory decreased slightly. Short - term hot metal is expected to be supported, and restocking demand may be released, so iron ore prices are strong. The contradiction is not prominent, and prices are expected to run strongly [4][9]. - **Scrap Steel**: Supply increased and demand was stable. After the price decline, the cost - performance ratio recovered, and the downside space is limited. It is expected to oscillate [4][10]. Carbon Element - **Coke**: After profit repair and environmental protection relaxation, supply stabilized. Short - term steel mill demand supported inventory depletion, but cost support weakened, and there are expectations of price cuts. The futures market is expected to oscillate following coking coal [4][12]. - **Coking Coal**: Domestic supply remained low, and fundamentals were not significantly weakened. There are restocking expectations for winter storage. Near - month contracts are affected by delivery, expected to oscillate, and far - month contracts are expected to oscillate strongly [4][13]. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Cost support remains, but the oversupply situation is difficult to reverse, and price pressure is high. The futures market is expected to run at a low level [4][16][17]. - **Silicon Iron**: High costs support the price bottom, but supply - demand is loose, suppressing the upside. The futures market is expected to run at a low level [7][18]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Supply may be disrupted, but mid - and downstream inventory is high. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, prices will be suppressed; otherwise, prices will rise. It is expected to oscillate weakly [7][14]. - **Soda Ash**: The price is close to the cost, with obvious bottom support, but oversupply restricts price increases. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the price center will decline [7][16]. 4. Market Data Steel - Spot market transactions were average. Steel mill profitability decreased, but production enthusiasm was high, and output increased slightly. Demand was resilient, and inventory continued to decline, but it was still higher than the same period last year [9]. Iron Ore - Port transactions decreased. Spot prices mostly rose. Off - season hot metal may decline seasonally, but there is short - term support, and restocking demand has not been released. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate strongly [9]. Scrap Steel - Arrivals increased this week, and EAF profits improved. Supply increased, demand was stable, and prices are expected to oscillate [10]. Coke - Futures followed coking coal to oscillate under pressure. Spot prices were stable. Supply increased slightly, demand decreased slightly, and inventory in coking enterprises increased slightly. It is expected to oscillate following coking coal [12]. Coking Coal - Futures oscillated under pressure. Spot prices declined. Domestic supply recovery was slow, imports were high, demand weakened, and inventory in mines increased slightly. Near - month contracts are expected to oscillate, and far - month contracts are expected to oscillate strongly [13]. Glass - Spot prices were stable. Supply may be disrupted, and mid - and downstream inventory was high. If there is no more cold - repair, prices will be suppressed; otherwise, prices will rise. It is expected to oscillate weakly [14]. Soda Ash - Spot prices declined. Supply was flat, demand was weak, and inventory decreased. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the price center will decline [14][16]. Manganese Silicon - Futures prices first rose and then fell. Spot prices were stable. Cost support was strong, but supply - demand was loose, and prices are expected to run at a low level [16][17]. Silicon Iron - Futures prices oscillated. Spot prices were stable. High costs supported the price bottom, but supply - demand was loose, and prices are expected to run at a low level [18]. 5. Index Data - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial product index, and PPI commodity index all increased on November 25, 2025 [100]. - **Plate Index**: The steel industry chain index increased by 0.30% on November 25, 2025, with a 0.08% increase in the past 5 days, a - 1.93% decrease in the past month, and a - 5.92% decrease since the beginning of the year [101].

Ethylene Glycol Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: The price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract rose from 3,808 yuan/ton to 3,884 yuan/ton, an increase of 76 yuan or 2.0%, while the spot price in East China remained stable at 3,845 yuan/ton The basis (spot minus futures) was -39 yuan/ton, indicating a deeper discount and an expanded premium of the futures market relative to the spot, possibly driven by the capital side [2]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The open interest of the main contract decreased from 353,300 lots to 317,468 lots, a decrease of 35,832 lots or 10.14%, suggesting that some long or short positions were closed The trading volume increased significantly from 164,315 lots to 282,100 lots, an increase of 117,785 lots or 71.68%, indicating increased market trading activity, but the decrease in open interest implies that short - term speculative behavior is dominant [2]. *** Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained stable at 67.63%, with the oil - based operating rate at 76.23% and the coal - based operating rate at 54.29% However, the profit structure was divided The oil - based profit (such as ethylene oxidation method) generally deteriorated, for example, the profit of ethylene - SHELL oxidation method decreased from - 799 yuan/ton to - 889 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan, indicating rising crude oil cost pressure The coal - based profit improved from 112.46 yuan/ton to 187.07 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan, indicating that the decrease in coal cost supported coal - based production capacity [2]. - **Demand Side**: The load of downstream polyester factories remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained at 63.43%, showing no change, reflecting stable terminal demand without significant improvement or deterioration The high load of the polyester sector supported ethylene glycol consumption, but the low loom load indicated weak terminal textile demand [3]. - **Inventory Side**: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased from 661,000 tons to 732,000 tons, an increase of 71,000 tons or 10.74% The inventory in Zhangjiagang increased from 215,000 tons to 275,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons or 27.91%, indicating obvious inventory accumulation, increased port arrivals or insufficient shipments, and increased inventory pressure [3]. *** Price Trend Judgment: The ethylene glycol price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with the upside limited by inventory pressure and the deterioration of oil - based profits On the supply side, the operating rate is stable but the profit is divided, with rising crude oil costs suppressing oil - based production capacity and falling coal costs benefiting coal - based production On the demand side, the high load of polyester provides support, but the low loom load and continuous inventory accumulation highlight the pressure of loose supply - demand The arrival of foreign goods is not mentioned to have changed, but the inventory increase implies potential import pressure Overall, the short - term rise of futures is driven by active trading, but the high inventory and stable demand in the fundamentals will limit the upside space, and the price may fluctuate in the bottom range [3].

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia has become a focal point in discussions regarding the value of AI and related stocks due to a series of stock sell-offs and accounting fraud allegations, prompting the company to respond to market skepticism with a detailed memo addressing twelve key concerns raised by investors [1][2]. Group 1: Nvidia's Response to Investor Concerns - Nvidia's investor relations team sent a seven-page memo to Wall Street analysts addressing various doubts, including a response to Michael Burry's criticism regarding stock-based compensation dilution and stock buybacks, clarifying that the total amount spent on share repurchases since 2018 is $91 billion, not the $112.5 billion claimed by Burry [2]. - The memo also refuted allegations comparing Nvidia's situation to historical accounting fraud cases, asserting that the company's core business fundamentals are strong and its financial reporting is transparent, emphasizing that it does not use special purpose entities to hide debt or inflate profits [2]. - Nvidia addressed concerns about the economic value of its hardware, stating that customers set GPU depreciation periods based on actual usage, with older models like the A100 still generating significant profits, contrary to claims that their economic lifespan is only 2 to 3 years [2]. Group 2: Analyst Insights on Financial Metrics - Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo stated that Nvidia's financial results align with industry norms, countering claims of anomalies in accounts receivable turnover days (Days Sales Outstanding, DSO) and inventory levels [3]. - Kuo explained that the increase in DSO from an average of 46 days (2020-2024) to 53 days in Q3 2026 is reasonable due to a significant rise in customer concentration from 23.8% to 65%, reflecting the bargaining power of major customers [4]. - Regarding inventory, Kuo clarified that the reported 32% increase in inventory for Q3 2026 is consistent with industry trends and that the majority of the inventory consists of work-in-progress items, indicating preparations for strong demand for the new Blackwell B300 chip [6].