货币政策工具也不只是降准降息，近年来货币政策工具特别是流动性投放工具更加多样，期限分布更趋合理。 长期有降准、国债买卖工具，中期有中期借贷便利（MLF）、买断式逆回购操作等工具，短期有公开市场7天 期逆回购、临时隔夜正、逆回购等工具。鉴于新的一年国债、地方政府专项债券等政府债券将保持较大发行规 模，央行有必要通过多种流动性投放工具营造适宜的流动性环境，引导金融机构加大对重点领域、薄弱环节的 支持力度。 编者按： 日前召开的中央经济工作会议，明确了明年经济工作的总体要求和政策取向，部署了明年经济工 作"八个坚持"的重点任务，抓住关键、纲举目张。为深入学习贯彻会议精神，本报即日起推出"落实 会议部署 问答中国经济"系列述评，围绕发展目标设定、赤字规模安排、推动投资企稳等10个方面 热点问题展开讨论，敬请关注。 "把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量"是今年中央经济工作会议的新提法。在上述总 体目标下，明年如何灵活高效地运用多种货币政策工具备受外界关注。 "十五五"开局之年，适度宽松的货币政策要努力推动实现经济增长、物价回升，这首先要求明年金融总量保持 合理增长，充分满足实体经济融资需求。社会融资 ...

财政部17日公布的财政收支情况显示，1至11月，全国一般公共预算收入200516亿元，同比增长0.8%； 全国一般公共预算支出248538亿元，同比增长1.4%。 财政政策民生导向鲜明 业内人士表示，今年前11个月，全国一般公共预算收入基本保持平稳，税收收入增速连续九个月修复， 收入完成进度高于去年同期和近五年同期均值。从财政支出角度看，民生导向鲜明。未来财政将继续从 过去的生产建设型财政向民生财政转型，集中财力保障国家重大战略任务，投资于人、服务于民生。 税收收入增速连续九个月修复 数据显示，1至11月，全国一般公共预算收入200516亿元，同比增长0.8%。其中，全国税收收入164814 亿元，同比增长1.8%；非税收入35702亿元，同比下降3.7%。分中央和地方看，中央一般公共预算收入 88464亿元，同比下降1%；地方一般公共预算本级收入112052亿元，同比增长2.2%。 中国银河证券首席宏观分析师张迪分析认为，1至11月全国一般公共预算收入同比增长0.8%，基本保持 平稳。其中，税收收入增速连续九个月修复，累计增速上行至1.8%。今年预算报告中税收收入增速目 标为3.7%，目前其累计增速逐步改善 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, although there is uncertainty at the end of the year, the policy - supported attitude towards the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - For national debt, in the short term, the bond market is expected to fluctuate under the background of weak domestic demand and institutional behavior disturbances. Attention should be paid to the repair of the supply - demand relationship at the end of the year and the rebound after over - decline [6]. - For precious metals, the weak US non - farm payroll data boosts the expectation of interest rate cuts. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold and maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards silver [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, the prices of copper, aluminum, etc. are expected to be relatively stable or have upward potential due to factors such as supply - demand structure and macro - policies, while zinc, lead, etc. may face some downward pressure [11][13][16]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to maintain a bottom - range oscillation, and the price of iron ore is estimated to run within an oscillation range [33][35]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber can be short - term operated with a neutral - to - long idea, and oil prices are recommended to be traded with a low - buy and high - sell strategy [53][57]. - For agricultural products, the prices of different products such as pigs, eggs, and beans are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship and seasonal factors, presenting different trends and investment suggestions [81][84][86]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market Information**: The A500ETF had a huge trading volume of nearly 53 billion yuan, three times that of the CSI 300ETF. The national general public budget revenue from January to November was 20.0516 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. SpaceX entered the pre - IPO regulatory quiet period [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: At the end of the year, some funds cash in on profits, and the market faces certain uncertainties. But in the long - term, the policy - supported attitude towards the capital market remains unchanged, and the strategy is to go long on dips [4]. National Debt - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes. The national general public budget revenue from January to November was 20.0516 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. The central bank conducted 46.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 143 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In November, the production side was stable, but the service industry was weak, and the demand side needed to be strengthened. The expectation of interest rate cuts is expected to boost the bond market sentiment. The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 0.53% to 982.48 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 3.93% to 15,594 yuan/kilogram. The US non - farm payroll data was weak, and the Fed governor's speech was dovish [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The weak non - farm payroll data boosts the expectation of interest rate cuts. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold and maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards silver [8]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: The silver price hit a new high, and the copper price rose. The LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic futures warehouse receipts decreased. The domestic copper spot import was at a loss, and the refined - scrap price difference widened [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The liquidity expectation is marginally relaxed, and the supply of copper ore is tight. The short - term copper price is expected to oscillate at a high level [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The LME aluminum cancelled warehouse receipts continued to increase, and the aluminum price rose. The domestic aluminum inventory decreased, and the spot was at a discount [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The global aluminum inventory is decreasing, and the aluminum price is strongly supported. It is expected to rise after oscillation [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The zinc price fell, the zinc ore inventory decreased, and the LME zinc inventory slowly increased. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory decreased, and the import was at a loss [14][15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc ore inventory decreased, and the domestic spot tightened. After the Fed's meeting, the zinc price may give back some gains [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: The lead price fell, the lead ore inventory was basically flat, and the domestic social inventory increased slightly [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is expected to run weakly in a wide range in the short term [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The nickel price rebounded after hitting the bottom. The nickel ore price was stable, and the nickel iron price weakened [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The nickel surplus pressure is still large. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: The tin price rose. The supply side had problems such as insufficient raw materials, and the demand side was affected by high prices. The inventory increased [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin price is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The lithium carbonate price rose. The MMLC battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices increased [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern repair expectation cannot be falsified. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to fundamental dynamics [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina price rose. The domestic spot was at a premium, and the overseas price fell. The futures inventory decreased [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ore price is expected to oscillate downward, and the alumina production capacity is surplus. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel price rose. The raw material price was stable, and the social inventory decreased [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The stainless steel market is in a traditional off - season, and the price is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait and see [28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The cast aluminum alloy price rose. The trading volume and open interest decreased, and the inventory decreased [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost is firm, and the supply is disturbed. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [30]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: The rebar price rose slightly, and the hot - rolled coil price fell slightly. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil increased [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The terminal demand is weak, and the steel price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. The export license policy may suppress the price in the short term [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore price rose, and the inventory increased [34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of iron ore increased, and the demand decreased. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [35]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass price was flat, and the inventory decreased. The soda ash price was flat, and the inventory decreased [36][38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass market is in a weak supply - demand balance and is expected to oscillate narrowly. The soda ash price is expected to decline under pressure [37][39]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The manganese silicon price rose slightly, and the ferrosilicon price rose. The manganese silicon was at a premium, and the ferrosilicon was at a premium [40]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future market trend is mainly led by the black sector and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to the manganese ore and electricity price [44]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon price rose, and the polysilicon price rose. The inventory of industrial silicon decreased, and the inventory of polysilicon increased [45][47]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industrial silicon supply and demand weakened marginally, and the polysilicon supply decreased and the demand was weak. Both are expected to fluctuate with the market [46][48]. Energy and Chemicals Category Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price oscillated and rose. The inventory was low, and the demand for winter storage was positive. The tire enterprise's operating rate was different [51]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to operate short - term with a neutral - to - long idea and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [53]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The crude oil price fell, and the refined oil prices had different changes. The gasoline and diesel inventories decreased, and the fuel oil inventory increased [54][56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price is not recommended to be overly shorted in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export support willingness [57]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol had different changes, and the futures price rose. The MTO profit was negative [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the bullish factors are realized, the methanol price is expected to be sorted out at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [59]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of urea were stable, and the futures price rose. The inventory decreased [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The urea supply decreased and the demand increased. It is recommended to go long at low prices [61]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene decreased. The inventory of pure benzene and styrene increased, and the demand had different changes [62][63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene can be long at present [64]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC price rose. The cost was stable, and the operating rate decreased. The inventory increased [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PVC supply is strong and the demand is weak. It is recommended to go short on rallies [66]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol price fell. The supply decreased, and the demand decreased. The inventory increased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ethylene glycol supply and demand need to be improved by reducing production. Pay attention to the risk of price rebound [69]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA price rose. The supply was stable, and the demand decreased. The inventory decreased slightly [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA supply is expected to increase, and the demand will decrease. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [71]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene price rose. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand decreased. The inventory increased [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene inventory is expected to increase slightly. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [73]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE price fell. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand decreased. The inventory increased [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price is under pressure, and it is recommended to go short on rallies for the LL1 - 5 spread [76]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP price fell. The supply increased slightly, and the demand increased slightly. The inventory decreased [77]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP supply and demand are weak, and the price may be supported in the first quarter of next year [78]. Agricultural Products Category Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price rose. Some farmers held back sales, and the demand for large pigs increased [80]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The pig price may rebound in the short term, but the long - term supply is high. It is recommended to short after the rebound and long the far - month contract [81]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The egg price was mostly stable. The supply was stable, and the demand was different in different regions [82]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The egg price is expected to squeeze the premium in the near - month and pay attention to the pressure in the far - month [84]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The CBOT soybean price fell. The domestic soybean meal price fell slightly, and the inventory decreased [85]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The soybean import cost has a bottom, and the soybean meal price is expected to oscillate [86]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The palm oil production and export data were different. The domestic oil price stopped falling [87]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The palm oil supply may reverse in the future. It is recommended to operate based on high - frequency data [88]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The sugar price oscillated weakly. The production data of major sugar - producing countries were different [89][90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The cotton price oscillated narrowly. The spot price rose, and the inventory increased [92]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price is unlikely to have a unilateral trend due to uncertain policies and hedging pressure [93].

（原标题：如何灵活高效运用多种货币政策工具？） 今年以来，社会融资规模、货币供应量增速水平始终高于名义经济增速，明年仍有基础继续保持平稳增 长。基础来自哪里？来自继续实施更加积极的财政政策，来自推动投资止跌回稳，来自居民消费需求持 续恢复，来自直接融资市场迅速发展。 证券时报记者 贺觉渊 孙璐璐 为促进价格水平回升，保持低息环境是各国央行的主流操作。对我国而言，降低利率是可选项，但相比 之下，另一个"必做题"或许更为重要——在发挥好货币政策工具总量和结构双重功能的同时，持续畅通 货币政策传导机制。近年来，中国人民银行在畅通货币政策的传导效率上，着力推动存量政策持续见 效，落实好存续的各类结构性货币政策工具，盘活低效存量金融资源；积极规范市场行为，包括整治金 融业"内卷式"竞争，治理资金空转、手工补息等行为，提升金融机构的自主理性定价能力等。这些着力 畅通利率传导机制的改革在明年有望持续推进，从而促进社会综合融资成本低位运行。 "把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量"是今年中央经济工作会议的新提法。在 上述总体目标下，明年如何灵活高效地运用多种货币政策工具备受外界关注。 "十五五"开局之年，适 ...

24.85万亿元 从全国一般公共预算收支情况来看，1至11月，全国一般公共预算收入20.05万亿元，同比增长0.8%，增 幅与1至10月持平。税收收入继续增长，1至11月，全国税收收入16.48万亿元，同比增长1.8%。其中， 装备制造业、现代服务业等行业税收表现良好。计算机通信设备制造业税收收入同比增长14.1%，电气 机械器材制造业税收收入同比增长7.9%，科学研究技术服务业税收收入同比增长14.6%，文化体育娱乐 业税收收入同比增长6.3%。 全国一般公共预算支出保持增长，重点领域支出得到保障。财政部表示，各级财政部门认真落实更加积 极的财政政策，加大支出强度，优化支出结构，持续加强对重点领域的支出保障。1至11月，全国一般 公共预算支出24.85万亿元，同比增长1.4%；其中，社会保障和就业支出同比增长8.1%，教育支出同比 增长4.4%，卫生健康支出同比增长4.7%，科学技术支出同比增长7.9%，节能环保支出同比增长6.6%， 文化旅游体育与传媒支出同比增长1.3%。 此外，1至11月，全国政府性基金预算支出9.21万亿元，同比增长13.7%。财政部表示，主要是各级财政 持续加快债券资金使用，地方政 ...

摩根士丹利宏观策略谈-年终收官时刻以全局视角眺望全球 20251217 摘要 中国名义 GDP 增长预期约为 4%，低于市场普遍预期。财政政策预计温 和前置，侧重基建投资，如城市更新和 AI 算力中心。若上半年形势有变， 或追加相当于 GDP 0.5%的新增财政空间。 货币政策方面，降息降准空间有限，预计全年降息幅度在 10-20 个基点， 更侧重结构性工具。房地产政策方面，按揭利率补贴可能在 2025 年二 季度推出，消费方面，延续以旧换新，并探讨服务业消费补贴。 中国在科技板块、电池、电动汽车、机器人、光伏等新兴产业领域具有 先发优势。预计中国占全球出口市场份额有望从 15%提升至 16%- 17%，受益于企业全球化和人才优势。 中国资本市场信心有所提升，新兴产业企业家精神重燃。政策层面逐步 纠偏，增加对消费、社保的支持，但转型速度偏慢，需关注消费民生问 题。 美联储 12 月降息后，预计 2026 年 1 月和 4 月仍有两次降息，上半年 流动性相对宽松，利好风险资产。美国就业环境面临压力，美联储决策 会考虑此因素。 Q&A 2026 年中国宏观政策的总体定调是什么？ 2026 年中国宏观政策的总体定调 ...

Revenue Summary - In the first eleven months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 200,516 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [1] - Tax revenue amounted to 164,814 billion yuan, growing by 1.8%, while non-tax revenue was 35,702 billion yuan, showing a decline of 3.7% [1] - Central government revenue was 88,464 billion yuan, down 1% year-on-year, while local government revenue was 112,052 billion yuan, up 2.2% [1] - The domestic value-added tax was the largest contributor at 63,629 billion yuan, with a growth of 3.9%, and the stamp duty increased significantly by 27% to 4,044 billion yuan, with securities transaction stamp duty rising by 70.7% to 1,855 billion yuan [1] Expenditure Summary - Total general public budget expenditure for the first eleven months was 248,538 billion yuan, an increase of 1.4% year-on-year [3] - Central government expenditure was 38,232 billion yuan, up 6.2%, while local government expenditure was 210,306 billion yuan, increasing by 0.6% [3] - The highest expenditure category was social security and employment, totaling 40,721 billion yuan, with an 8.1% increase [3] - Government fund budget expenditure reached 92,124 billion yuan, a significant increase of 13.7% [3] Government Fund Revenue and Policy Measures - Government fund budget revenue for the first eleven months was 40,274 billion yuan, down 4.9%, with central government revenue at 3,938 billion yuan, up 0.6%, and local government revenue at 36,336 billion yuan, down 5.5% [2] - Land use rights transfer revenue was 29,119 billion yuan, declining by 10.7%, indicating the impact of previous real estate policy relaxations [2] - The central economic work conference emphasized the need for a more proactive fiscal policy, focusing on improving policy effectiveness through three measures: enhancing fiscal management, optimizing expenditure structure, and standardizing tax incentives and subsidies [2] Debt and Fiscal Policy - The acceleration of government fund budget expenditure is linked to the faster issuance and utilization of local debt limits, with an additional 5,000 billion yuan allocated to support local government finances [4] - The completion rate of the budget was 9.0%, higher than the average of the past three years [4] - Recommendations for fiscal policy include ensuring basic livelihood spending, optimizing expenditure structures, and considering central government as the main debt issuer due to its higher borrowing capacity compared to local governments [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the global macro - economy is expected to maintain resilience, supporting risk sentiment. The macro - economic mainline will shift from trade policies and geopolitical relations to economic fundamentals, and major economies will be in a period of relatively abundant macro - liquidity mainly driven by fiscal expansion [2][49]. - The global economy, led by the US, will maintain resilience in 2026, continuing to support the performance of risk assets. The structure may be more balanced than in 2025, with the technology sector, industry prosperity logic, and macro - cycle opportunities intertwined [3][50]. - The long - term US Treasury bond yield has limited trends in 2026, with an upward - risk bias. The US dollar index is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation throughout the year, with an upward - risk bias [3][163][172]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 Overseas Macroeconomic Mainline Logic and Performance Review of Major Asset Classes - **Economic fundamentals**: In 2025, the US economy maintained a relatively high growth rate, but the actual GDP growth rate declined marginally compared to 2024. Non - US economies were stronger in the first half of the year, and the US economy was stronger in the second half. The inventory and net exports of the US GDP fluctuated greatly in the first half due to trade policies, and personal consumption and private fixed investment showed certain resilience. The US industrial output increased, and there were signs of an early - cycle expansion. Monetary policy continued to cut interest rates, and the yield of US Treasury bonds declined, but the stock - market valuation remained basically unchanged. The fiscal deficit ratio decreased [7][8][16][17][26]. - **Adapting to the new reality of the tariff era**: In 2025, tariff policies were the most important macro - risks. The overall US tariff rate remained high, and the "severe decoupling" between China and the US turned into "slow decoupling." The "tariff - inflation" transmission was relatively mild, and the US inflation expectation became stable and desensitized to tariff uncertainties [30][37][39]. - **Performance review of major asset classes**: In 2025, the global market had a good year. Global equity markets rose significantly, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the STAR 50 Index leading the way. The bond market also had positive returns, and the commodity market was highly differentiated [47][48]. 3.2 2026 Overseas Macroeconomic Outlook 3.2.1 "From Politics to Economy", "From International to Domestic" - The mainline of the global macro - economy will shift from trade policies and geopolitical relations to economic fundamentals, and the focus of geopolitics will shift from international to domestic. The US mid - term elections, China's 14th Five - Year Plan, the eurozone's fiscal expansion, and Japan's new policies will all focus on domestic economic and political issues [55]. - **Tariff policy changes**: The "general tariff" under the IEEPA framework is facing challenges. If the government loses the lawsuit, the IEEPA tariff will be revoked. Relevant industry tariffs may become an important legal tool for rebuilding the high - tariff system, and attention should be paid to changes in key industries and commodity trade flows [56][58]. - **US National Security Strategy**: The US National Security Strategy focuses on economic and financial security, including trade balance, ensuring key supply chains, re - industrialization, energy dominance, revitalizing the US dollar, and tax cuts and deregulation. It shows a shift from maintaining global leadership to focusing on national interests [61]. 3.2.2 Macro - liquidity - **Monetary policy**: The Fed is expected to cut interest rates to 3.25% in 2026, with two 50bp cuts in total. There is a risk that the final interest - rate cut space is less than expected, and there is a probability of an early end to the interest - rate cut cycle or a start of an interest - rate hike cycle. The Fed is expected to restart balance - sheet expansion in the second half of 2026 [65][67][68]. - **Fiscal policy**: The US fiscal policy will expand marginally in 2026. The "Great Beauty Act" will have a positive impact on the economy, and the fiscal deficit ratio is expected to expand moderately. The risk of concerns about the sustainability of US Treasury bonds is relatively controllable [78][79][80]. - **Macro - liquidity**: The US financial conditions index is expected to continue to expand in 2026, mainly driven by factors such as the decline in the benchmark interest rate, credit expansion, and the resilience of the equity market. The expansion of the financial conditions index is expected to have a more significant impact on the real economy [86][94][96]. 3.2.3 Economic Structure - **Forward - looking and backward - looking indicators**: The US economy is currently in a situation where forward - looking indicators are improving while backward - looking indicators are still weak. It is expected that the backward - looking indicators will improve in 2026 [101]. - **Inflation**: Inflation is expected to remain above the Fed's target in 2026, with a CPI growth rate of 2.8%. The "pro - cyclical inflation" will have a relatively limited impact on macro - assets [103][104]. - **Employment**: The employment market is trending downward, supporting the Fed's interest - rate cut tendency. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% in the first half of 2026 and then fall to 4.4% in the second half [114]. - **Consumption**: Personal consumption is expected to remain stable in 2026, showing a K - shaped differentiation. Consumption may be weak in the first half due to income factors and will be boosted by the employment market and fiscal policies in the second half [121][122]. - **Private fixed investment**: Private fixed investment is expected to be a highlight in 2026, with a significant improvement in the quarter - on - quarter growth rate. However, the structure is differentiated, and it is necessary to follow industry Alpha [128][129]. 3.2.4 Debate on the "AI Bubble" - The "AI bubble" reflects concerns about the sustainability of AI investment, debt, and return on investment. At the index level, there is no systematic risk for now, but the risk is concentrated in leading technology companies. It is recommended to track risks through indicators such as ROIC - WACC, credit market risk exposure, and the profit erosion of depreciation and amortization [135][137][147]. 3.3 US Treasury Bond Market - In 2026, the long - term US Treasury bond yield has limited trends, with an upward - risk bias. The 10 - year US Treasury bond interest - rate center may be around 4.20%, with support at 3.95 - 4.00 and the first target at 4.35% and the second target at 4.65%. The 2 - year US Treasury bond yield has support at around 3.20% and a target of 3.68%. The yield curve may show a "bull steepening" in the first half and a "bear steepening" in the second half [163][164]. 3.4 US Dollar Index - The US dollar index is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation in 2026, with an annual oscillation range of 96 - 108 and an upward - risk bias. The oscillation range in the first quarter of 2026 is 97.7 - 102. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of economic relative strength, the marginal change of interest - rate differentials, and carry - trade themes [172][180].

Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - In November, public fiscal revenue was CNY 14,026.0 billion, remaining flat year-on-year, with tax revenue at CNY 11,450.0 billion, a 2.8% increase, but the growth rate slowed by 5.8 percentage points compared to October[2] - Non-tax revenue fell to CNY 2,576.0 billion, down 10.8% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 22.1 percentage points from the previous month[2] - Public fiscal expenditure in November was CNY 22,713.0 billion, a decrease of 3.7% year-on-year, although the decline rate improved by 6.1 percentage points from October[3] Government Fund Performance - From January to November, government fund budget revenue totaled CNY 40,274.0 billion, down 4.9% year-on-year, with a worsening decline rate of 2.1 percentage points compared to the previous month[17] - In November, central government fund revenue was CNY 320.0 billion, down 9.1%, while local government fund revenue was CNY 5,481.0 billion, down 16.1%, with the decline rate improving by 4.3 percentage points from October[5] - The revenue from state-owned land use rights fell to CNY 4,137.0 billion, a 26.8% decrease year-on-year, with the decline rate slightly narrowing by 0.4 percentage points from October[5] Fiscal Policy Outlook - The central economic work conference emphasized the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy, aiming to maintain necessary fiscal deficits and total expenditure levels[4] - The actual deficit rate for this year has exceeded 5.0%, and fiscal spending and financing are expected to maintain necessary strength in the coming year[4] - Broad fiscal expenditure from January to November reached CNY 340,662 billion, a 4.5% increase year-on-year, with central fiscal expenditure at CNY 47,310.0 billion, growing by 21.0%[22]

All right, I want to start off with some of the news of this morning. We're seeing oil prices move higher on sanctions on Venezuela and also potential sanctions on Russia. Uh, does this idea of the potential for oil to move higher, at least we're seeing that move this morning, does it change your view of any sectors or the markets in general.>> Sure. Look, I mean, oil prices has so far not contributed to the inflation pressures in the US, which obviously helped the Fed cut rates. This is a key indicator tha ...