Group 1: Report Core View - The report indicates that on December 3, all four major index futures contracts for the current month declined, with IF down 0.3%, IH down 0.35%, IC down 0.41%, and IM down 0.58%. The total trading volume of index futures rebounded on this trading day, showing an increase in investors' trading enthusiasm. In terms of positions, the total positions of all four major index futures also increased. The index futures have certain support at the lower level [1][2][3]. Group 2: Market Data Summary Index Futures Price and Trading Volume - The closing prices of the four major spot indexes all declined, with the CSI 300 down 0.51%, the SSE 50 down 0.52%, the CSI 500 down 0.62%, and the CSI 1000 down 0.89%. Among the index futures contracts, the December 2025 contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM all declined, with decreases of 0.3%, 0.35%, 0.41%, and 0.58% respectively [1]. - The total trading volume of IF increased by 16,059 lots, IH by 3,694 lots, IC by 18,013 lots, and IM by 37,370 lots. The total positions of IF increased by 10,409 lots, IH by 3,910 lots, IC by 10,653 lots, and IM by 23,105 lots [2]. Index Futures Basis - The basis of different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM is different, and the basis generally shows a negative value, indicating that the futures price is lower than the spot price [1]. Top 20 Member Positions - In the top 20 member positions of index futures, the long - and short - position changes of different contracts vary. For example, in the IF2512 contract, the long - position increase is 3,679, and the short - position increase is 3,373 [5]. Group 3: Market Driving Factors Domestic Economic Data - From January to November this year, the replacement of consumer goods with old ones drove the sales of related goods to exceed 2.5 trillion yuan, benefiting more than 360 million people. From January to October, China's service trade import and export volume was 6.58443 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%, and the service trade deficit was 766.37 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 269.39 billion yuan [6]. Policy and International Relations - Premier Li Qiang pointed out that new urbanization is an important carrier for expanding domestic demand, promoting industrial upgrading, and strengthening the domestic cycle. The US President Trump signed a law on the US - Taiwan relationship, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry responded, emphasizing the one - China principle [7]. International Economic Data - The US ADP employment data in November showed a decrease of 32,000 private - sector jobs, the largest decline since March 2023. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is close to 90% [6]. Group 4: Other Information Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6]. Stock Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.51% at 3,878 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.78%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.12%. The trading volume of A - shares was 1.68 trillion yuan, up from 1.61 trillion yuan the previous day [7].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing significant upward momentum, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, supply disruptions in key metals, and increased demand from the AI and clean energy sectors [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector opened actively, with notable gains: Tin Industry Co. rose over 8%, Jincheng Mining and Western Mining increased over 6%, and several others including Luoyang Molybdenum and Jiangxi Copper rose over 5% [1]. - Specific stock performances include: - Jincheng Mining at 70.19, up 6.95% with a year-to-date increase of 95.34% [2] - Western Mining at 25.76, up 6.89% with a year-to-date increase of 70.64% [2] - Luoyang Jiya at 18.64, up 5.79% with a year-to-date increase of 189.17% [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported a significant increase in copper delivery applications, reaching 56,875 tons, the largest increase since 2013 [3]. - LME metal futures closed higher, with copper rising by $342 to $11,488 per ton, marking a historical high, and tin increasing by 4.21% to $40,685 per ton [3]. - The semiconductor and consumer electronics sectors are the primary applications for tin, accounting for over 65% of consumption, which is driving demand due to a recovery in the semiconductor industry [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Morgan Stanley forecasts that supply disruptions and global inventory mismatches will push copper prices to $12,500 per ton by mid-2026 [3]. - The copper market is experiencing "strategic locking" of COMEX inventories, which reduces market liquidity and exacerbates regional shortages, acting as a catalyst for price increases [4]. - The industrial metals sector is facing ongoing supply-demand imbalances, with global copper mine supply disruptions and increased demand from the clean energy transition [4]. Group 4: Precious and Minor Metals - The precious metals sector is benefiting from rising expectations of interest rate cuts, with silver prices reaching historical highs and ongoing supply shortages [5]. - The small metals sector, particularly tin, is gaining attention due to its critical role in the electronics supply chain, with recent price increases reflecting a recovery in demand from semiconductor and AI device sectors [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For gold, the short - term view is bullish, the medium - term view is sideways, and the intraday view is bullish with a recommendation to wait and see. The core logic is the rising expectation of interest rate cuts and the easing of the Russia - Ukraine situation. Also, the market's expectation of a December Fed rate cut is close to 90%, and the upward space is limited. Gold's weakness is due to the recovery of market risk appetite, and there is significant pressure above the 960 mark for short - term Shanghai gold [1][3]. - For copper, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all bullish, with a long - term bullish outlook. The core logic is that against the backdrop of good fundamentals, the expectation of interest rate cuts is rising, with a nearly 90% probability of a December rate cut. Since late November, there have been positive news on the supply side, such as a high long - term contract premium from Codelco and China's measures to manage copper smelting capacity. Short - term Shanghai copper has strong upward momentum after breaking through the 90,000 mark [1][4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: Gold prices fluctuated yesterday. Since late November, the upward momentum has come from the continuous rise in the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the decline of the US dollar index [3]. - **Market Expectation**: The market's expectation of a December Fed rate cut is close to 90%, and the upward space is limited [3]. - **Weakness Reason**: Gold's weakness is mainly due to the recovery of market risk appetite [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: There is significant pressure above the 960 mark for short - term Shanghai gold [3]. Copper - **Price Movement**: After the Asian session yesterday, copper prices continued to rise. Shanghai copper opened higher above the 90,000 mark during the domestic night session and continued to rise with increasing positions [4]. - **Market Expectation**: The probability of a December interest rate cut is close to 90% [4]. - **Supply - side News**: Codelco proposed a long - term contract premium of over $300 to global buyers, highlighting the tight global copper mine supply and increasing the cost of global copper trade. China is taking measures to manage copper smelting capacity and has stopped about 2 million tons of illegal capacity [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: Short - term Shanghai copper has strong upward momentum after breaking through the 90,000 mark [4].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 王育武 镍品种 市场分析 2025-12-03日沪镍主力合约2601开于118050元/吨，收于117870元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化0.11%，当 日成交量为112448（+23926）手，持仓量为118618（-3306）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约延续小幅反弹态势。宏观方面，美联储降息预期再度提升，12月降息25个 bp概率逼近 90%，流动性预期改善支撑商品价格。基本面反而成为压制价格走势的因素，导致反弹力 度不强，全天振幅约 1.12%，波动相对有限。此外，据Mysteel消息，11月中国精炼镍产量28392吨，环 比减少14.85%，过剩局面有所收窄。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，镍矿市场交投氛围冷清，观望情绪为主。受近期成交下探叠加下游镍铁 价格表现弱势，镍矿价格承压走跌。菲律宾方面，矿山多履行前期订单出货为主；北部矿山尚未开启新 招标。下游铁厂利润亏损下，对原料镍矿采购多压价心态。部分铁厂已有减产止损的计划。印尼方面， 12月（一期）内贸基准价走跌0.52-0.91美元/湿吨内贸升水方面，主流 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, the trend of some futures varieties is judged, including trend short, oscillating with a downward bias, oscillating, oscillating with an upward bias, and trend long [2]. - Based on quantitative indicators, the trends of some futures varieties are divided into bearish, oscillating, and bullish [7]. - A series of macro - economic and policy news are reported, such as the successful maiden flight of China's Zhuque - 3 reusable launch vehicle, the significant decline in the US "small non - farm" data in November, and the adjustment of China's stock market rating by JPMorgan [9][10]. - For different futures sectors, specific investment strategies and market outlooks are provided, such as the stock index futures with an oscillating strategy and the bond futures with a wide - range oscillating trend [13][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Information - China's independently developed reusable launch vehicle Zhuque - 3 had a successful maiden flight, marking a new milestone in China's commercial space industry [9]. - The US November "small non - farm" data showed a significant decline, with private enterprises reducing 32,000 jobs, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is nearly 90% [9]. - Premier Li Qiang pointed out that new - type urbanization is an important carrier for expanding domestic demand and promoting industrial upgrading [9]. - JPMorgan upgraded its rating of the Chinese stock market from "neutral" to "overweight" and expected the MSCI China Index to have a 19% upside potential in the base case [10]. 3.2 Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to adopt an oscillating approach and wait and see. The A - share market declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.51%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.78%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.12%. The market turnover was 1.68 trillion yuan. The AI application and lithium - battery sectors led the decline, while the coal and pharmaceutical commerce sectors were active. The weak economic data and the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut are important factors affecting the market [13]. Bond Futures - The bond market may continue to maintain a wide - range oscillating trend, and in the medium term, attention should be paid to the steepening of the yield curve. The recent decline in the bond market is mainly affected by the redemption of public bond funds, and the 10 - year medium - short - duration bonds can be considered for buying on dips, while the ultra - long - duration bonds should be treated with caution [14]. 3.3 Black Spiral Steel and Iron Ore - From a policy perspective, attention should be paid to the spirit of the Politburo meeting at the beginning of December and the Central Economic Work Conference in the middle of the month. Fundamentally, the demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is relatively good. The supply side may see a decline in iron - water production, and the inventory is still at a high level compared with last year. The steel price is likely to remain weak in the medium - term. In the short term, the steel and ore markets will oscillate, and in the long - term, a short - selling approach on rallies is recommended [16][17]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the production and safety supervision of coal mines and the change in downstream iron - water production. The supply of coking coal may be restricted by safety supervision at the end of the year, but in the short term, the supply may increase, and the weak demand for steel and the potential negative feedback risk will restrict the price [18]. Ferroalloys - For ferrosilicon, due to the uncertainty of cost factors and the discount in the futures price, if the price falls back to the previous low, the daily output may decline. For silicomanganese, the short - term strength of the futures price is due to the price support of manganese ore, but the supply of manganese ore may increase, and the long - term over - supply situation is the main logic. It is recommended to hold long positions in ferrosilicon and short silicomanganese on rallies, and pay attention to the arbitrage strategy of long ferrosilicon and short silicomanganese [20]. Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, it is recommended to wait and see. For glass, it can be tried to go long on dips in the short term and exit flexibly when the sentiment changes. The supply of soda ash may be affected by production reduction and new capacity, and the supply of glass may be adjusted due to cold - repair expectations [21]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Shanghai Zinc - The domestic zinc inventory has decreased, and the export window has been opened. The zinc price is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can short on rallies. The price is affected by the Fed's policy and international geopolitics, and the decline in domestic processing fees supports the price [23]. Shanghai Lead - The social inventory of lead has decreased to a one - month low. The supply of lead is tight in some regions, and the demand from battery enterprises is improving. It is recommended to hold short positions with caution [23]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the price will oscillate widely. The fundamentals are showing signs of weakening, but the long - term demand for lithium is still good, which supports the price [25]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon will continue to oscillate, with limited downward adjustment space. Polysilicon will also oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see and operate cautiously [26]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Cotton - The supply pressure is large in the short term, and the demand has not yet recovered. The high cost supports the Zhengzhou cotton to oscillate and rebound. The USDA's supply and demand report is bearish, and the domestic cotton supply is abundant, while the demand is weak [29][30]. Sugar - The domestic sugar supply - demand situation is still bearish. The new - sugar listing pressure weighs on the price, and the cost supports the price to limit the decline. It is recommended to wait and see or short in the short term [31]. Eggs - The near - month contracts are expected to oscillate. The 01 contract can consider stopping losses on short positions and waiting and seeing. The 02 and 03 contracts may be under pressure in the short term, and the far - month contracts are supported by the expectation of a decline in inventory but are at a relatively high valuation, so it is recommended to wait and see [33][34]. Apples - The price is expected to oscillate strongly. The apple storage is almost finished, and the出库 has started. The spot price is stable, but the sales are affected by the increase in the supply of citrus fruits [35]. Corn - Attention should be paid to the port collection situation and the upper pressure on the futures price. The short - term 01 contract may maintain a high - level oscillation, and the far - month contracts may be weaker [35][36]. Red Dates - It is recommended to wait and see. The prices in the production and sales areas are stable, and the futures price oscillates [37]. Pigs - In the short term, the supply pressure increases, and the demand is weak. The spot price oscillates weakly. It is recommended to hold short positions in the near - month contracts and pay attention to risk control [37][38]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The EIA inventory has increased, and the market has returned to the fundamental analysis. The US sanctions on Russian oil exports have changed the supply expectation, but the possible end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict may lead to an oversupply situation. The oil price is in a long - term downward trend, and the short - term rebound space is limited [40]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil is affected by geopolitics and the macro - economy. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It will follow the oil price fluctuations [41]. Plastics - Polyolefins have a large supply pressure and weak demand, so they will oscillate weakly. The upstream production losses may provide some support, and it is recommended for industrial customers to hedge in time [44]. Rubber - The ru - nr spread may weaken from mid - December to January. The short - term trend is weakening, and short - selling opportunities can be considered on rallies [45]. Synthetic Rubber - After the market sentiment subsides, it will oscillate. If there is a rebound, short positions can be tried with a stop - loss [46]. Methanol - The near - month contracts are expected to oscillate weakly, and the far - month contracts are expected to oscillate bullishly. If the inventory is reduced smoothly, a slightly bullish configuration can be considered [47]. Caustic Soda - The spot price of caustic soda continues to decline, and the short - term fundamentals have no obvious improvement. It is recommended to adopt a short - term oscillating strategy and avoid going long in the near - month contracts [48]. Asphalt - The price fluctuation of asphalt is expected to increase, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter - storage game [49]. Polyester Industry Chain - The supply - demand structure of the polyester industry chain is generally stable, and the price is driven by cost. Attention can be paid to the arbitrage opportunities of long TA and short PF and the reverse spread of ethylene glycol [50]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The LPG price has fallen from a high level. Although it is relatively strong, the price increase is difficult to sustain. It is recommended to short on rallies [51]. Pulp - It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, take profits on long positions when the delivery profit is obvious, or short the delivery profit by buying spot and selling futures [52]. Logs - The fundamentals are weakly oscillating, and the spot price has decreased. The inventory is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be under pressure [54]. Urea - The spot price is expected to oscillate strongly, and the futures market is sensitive to the short - term spot trading sentiment. The futures price is expected to move up this week [54].

研究所 吴金恒（期货从业资格号F03100418 期货投资咨询号Z0021125）,联系电话:010-82293229 数据来源:SMM W | 交易日期(日) | 2025-12-02 | 2025-11-26 | 较昨日变化 | 2025-12-03 | 近两周走势 | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 117700.00 | 117030.00 | 117600.00 | -100.00 | 1 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 117870.00 | 118050.00 | -180.00 | 期货连一合约 | 收盘价 | 117260.00 | 期货连二合约 | 收盘价 | 118070.00 | 118280.00 | 117430.00 | -210.00 | | | | | 期货连三合约 | 收盘价 | 118330.00 | 118470.00 | 117610.00 | -140.00 | 117870.00 | 118050.0 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20251204 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：美国 ADP 就业走弱，国内股债双弱 海外方面，美国服务业支撑的基本面韧性与就业边际疲软并存，11 月 ADP 就业减少 3.2 万，为 2023 年 3 月来最大降幅，压力集中于小企业，大企业则净增 9 万，就业分化显著。 11 月 ISM 服务业升至 52.6，创九个月新高，价格降至七个月低点、就业升至六个月高点， 显示服务需求韧性、通胀缓和、就业收缩放缓。美元指数回落至 98.9，10Y 美债利率回落至 4.07%，美股收涨，铜价再创历史新高，受美元走弱、供应扰动加剧及 LME 注册仓库库存持 续紧张共同推升，金、油小幅收涨。今日关注美国初申失业金人数。 国内方面，中国 11 月 RatingDog 服务业 PMI 降至 52.1，扩张小幅放缓，其中新出口订 单明显回升，受企业加大营销和中美贸易不确定性阶段性缓解带动，外需景气度改善。A 股 周三缩量调整，两市超 3800 只个股收跌、成交额回落至 1.68 万亿，双创板块领跌，目前经 济基 ...

美"小非农"数据不及预期降息理由增强，隔夜美股收涨，中概指数跌1.38%。昨日下跌的港股三大指数 高开，恒指涨0.17%，国指涨0.26%，恒生科技指数涨0.21%。大型科技股多数出现反弹行情，美联储降 息预期持续增强，铜、铝、黄金等有色金属股继续活跃，其中中铝国际大涨超7%。另外，新能源汽车 股"蔚小理"继续跌势。(格隆汇) ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed's future interest rate cut expectations support precious metal prices. Economic and employment data are mixed, which disturbs the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December. Global central banks' continuous gold purchases and geopolitical risks may support precious metal prices in the medium to long term. The supply - demand expectations of platinum and palladium are different, and their prices may be adjusted due to various factors such as interest rate expectations and supply - demand changes [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metal Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: On December 3, 2025, the closing price was 956.70 yuan/g, the trading volume was 273,359.00, and the inventory was 90,873.00 (ten - gram). Compared with the previous week, the closing price increased by 9.54 yuan/g, and the trading volume decreased by 26,737.00 [1] - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price of the futures active contract was 13,423.00 yuan/ten - gram, the trading volume was 2,664,403.00, and the inventory was 626,633.00 (ten - gram). Compared with the previous week, the closing price increased by 159.00 yuan/ten - gram, and the trading volume increased by 2,464,589.00 [1] - **COMEX Gold**: The closing price of the futures active contract was 4,133.80 dollars/ounce, the trading volume was 169,613.00, and the inventory was 36,573,657.72 (troy ounces). Compared with the previous week, the closing price increased by 101.00 dollars/ounce, and the trading volume decreased by 42,456.00 [1] - **COMEX Silver**: The closing price of the futures active contract was 58.93 dollars/ounce, the trading volume was 107,261.00, and the inventory was 455,933,737.28 (troy ounces). Compared with the previous week, the closing price decreased by 0.22 dollars/ounce, and the trading volume decreased by 4,787.00 [1] 3.2 Important Information - Bessent downplayed the Fed Chairman's control over interest rates and proposed setting a residency limit for regional Fed presidents, saying that tariffs could be re - structured. The US ADP employment in November unexpectedly declined, with a decrease of 32,000 jobs, the largest decline since March 2023. However, the US ISM services PMI expansion speed was the fastest in nine months, the price index was at a seven - month low, and the employment index was at a six - month high [1] 3.3 Gold and Silver - **Multi - empty Logic**: US economic and employment data in November were mixed, disturbing the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December. But the probability of a December rate cut was still over 80%. Fiscal stimulus policies in multiple countries led to expectations of debt expansion and fiscal deficits, and central banks' continuous gold purchases and geopolitical risks may support precious metal prices in the medium to long term [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on price dips. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,800 - 4,000 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 4,300 - 4,600 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai gold, the support level is around 890 - 920 yuan/g and the resistance level is around 970 - 1,000 yuan/g. Similar support and resistance levels are provided for silver [1] 3.4 Platinum - **Multi - empty Logic**: Supply is affected by high mining costs, unstable power supply, etc., and demand is expected to increase due to stricter emission standards. The supply - demand of platinum is expected to be tight from 2025 - 2026. However, the expectation of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates and high platinum prices may suppress downstream demand, leading to price adjustments [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold previous long positions cautiously or take profits on rallies. Consider the "long platinum, short silver" arbitrage opportunity. For London platinum, pay attention to the support level around 1,300 - 1,500 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 1,800 - 2,000 dollars/ounce. For domestic platinum, the support level is around 335 - 385 yuan/g and the resistance level is around 465 - 516 yuan/g [1] 3.5 Palladium - **Multi - empty Logic**: Supply is affected by mining difficulties but may increase due to vehicle scrapping. Demand from the automotive industry is expected to decline, and the supply - demand of palladium is expected to shift from tight to loose from 2025 - 2026. Interest rate expectations and supply - demand changes may lead to price adjustments [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold previous long positions cautiously or take profits on rallies. For London palladium, pay attention to the support level around 1,190 - 1,390 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 1,600 - 1,800 dollars/ounce. For domestic palladium, the support level is around 305 - 357 yuan/g and the resistance level is around 415 - 465 yuan/g [1]

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银、铂、钯 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂、工业硅、多 晶硅 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、纯苯、短纤、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、PP、 甲醇、合成橡胶、橡胶、玻璃纯碱 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 朱迪（投资咨询资格：Z0015979） 电话：020-88818008 邮箱：zhudi@gf.com.cn 陈尚宇（投资咨询资格：Z0022532） 电话：0 ...