值得注意的是，正如我们昨天在文中提到的，强化降息预期的是，下一任美联储主席的领跑者——白宫 国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特——被认为与特朗普支持降低借贷成本的立场一致，从而进一步支撑 金价。 瑞银表示，市场参与者再次开始为12月美国降息定价，继续看好短期前景，年底金价预测为4200美元， 明年年中为4500美元。 从技术面来看，金价自11月初涨势的78.2%斐波那契回撤位4000美元附近反弹后持续走高，突破4100美 元确认了自11月峰值以来的回调已经结束。日线图4小时显示，技术指标维持积极动能，黄金进一步上 涨空间仍存。 上行方面，多头的下一个目标突破4200美元，下一阻力位将是11月13日高点4245美元。突破该位后， 4300美元及4381美元历史高点将成为潜在目标。 下行方面，若跌破4100美元，将打开测试20日简单移动平均线(SMA)的大门，该均线位于4065美元附 近，随后可能进一步回落至4000美元。 【EBC平台风险提示及免责条款】：本材料仅供一般参考使用，无意作为（也不应被视为）值得信赖的 财务、投资或其他建议。 截至11月26日，全球最大的黄金ETF SPDR Gold Trust持仓量为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations, with recent highs being met with resistance, leading to a potential return to the 4100 level for adjustments [1][11]. Market Performance - Gold prices rose yesterday but faced a sharp decline after briefly breaking above previous highs, indicating a slowdown in upward momentum [1][5]. - The market is currently in a consolidation phase, with no significant changes observed today [6][11]. Technical Analysis - The market is showing mixed signals, with potential upward resistance at 4174 and 4210, while support levels are identified around 4143 and 4100-4110 [7][9][11]. - The likelihood of a downturn is increasing, with a potential drop below 4143, targeting the 4100-4110 support area [11]. Influencing Factors - Recent U.S. economic data has worsened, reinforcing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, which has contributed to a weaker dollar and supported gold prices [12]. - The unexpected stability in unemployment claims contrasts with private sector predictions, adding to market concerns [12]. - The expansion of tariff exemptions between China and the U.S. has also contributed to the adjustment in gold prices [12]. Future Outlook - The upcoming Federal Reserve Beige Book and European Central Bank meetings are expected to influence global monetary policy and, consequently, the gold market [13]. - The ability to accurately determine entry and exit points in gold investments is crucial for achieving stable profits, emphasizing the importance of experience and risk management [14].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2) Core View of the Report - Recently, the RMB has experienced a continuous appreciation trend, with the USD/Offshore RMB exchange rate breaking through the 7.08 and 7.07 levels, reaching a low near 7.06. There are three main reasons behind this: the weak Q3 employment data in the US and the deteriorating private - sector job growth in the latest ADP data have increased concerns about a non - linear rise in unemployment rates in October and November, leading to a higher expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, a decline in US Treasury yields, and a narrowing of the China - US interest rate spread, which promotes RMB appreciation; the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar has been continuously adjusted in a stronger direction, reaching 7.0796 on November 26, a one - year high, and the positive signal from the China - US high - level call on November 24 has alleviated short - term concerns about tariff escalation; the good performance of the equity market and the continuous net inflow of northbound funds throughout the year have boosted RMB appreciation, and the expected increase in seasonal corporate settlement demand at the end of the year may further consolidate the RMB's appreciation momentum [2] 3) Summary by Related Content - **RMB Appreciation Trend**: The USD/Offshore RMB exchange rate has broken through 7.08 and 7.07, reaching around 7.06 [2] - **Reasons for RMB Appreciation**: - **US Economic Data and Fed Expectations**: Weak US Q3 employment data and deteriorating ADP data on private - sector jobs have increased concerns about unemployment rate hikes in October and November, leading to a higher expectation of a December Fed rate cut, a decline in US Treasury yields, and a narrowing of the China - US interest rate spread [2] - **Central Parity Rate and Diplomatic Signals**: The RMB central parity rate against the US dollar has been adjusted strongly, reaching 7.0796 on November 26, a one - year high. The November 24 China - US high - level call sent positive signals, alleviating short - term tariff concerns [2] - **Equity Market and Capital Flows**: The good performance of the equity market and the continuous net inflow of northbound funds throughout the year have promoted RMB appreciation, and the expected increase in year - end corporate settlement demand may further strengthen the appreciation momentum [2]

周四(11月27日)亚洲时段，现货黄金在前期上涨后出现回落，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报4152.29美元/盎 司，下跌0.24%，最高触及4168.19美元/盎司，最低下探4142.12美元/盎司。虽然美国ADP就业数据创4 月以来最低，同时耐用品订单超预期，但并未能改变美联储降息预期回落，根据CME的美联储观察工 具显示，美联储12月会议降息预期仍然接近 85%，远高于一周前的不到30%。 截至11月22日当周，美国初请失业金人数减少6000人，至21.6万人，创下4月以来最低水平，超出经济 学家预期的22.5万人。这表明裁员活动仍处于较低水平，企业支出也表现出色——9月份不包括飞机在 内的非国防资本财订单增加0.9%，8月数据上修至同样水平。 分析师指出，金价波动走势主要受美联储最新发布的褐皮书影响，该报告未能削弱市场对短期宽松政策 的预期，投资者继续押注美联储将在12月采取降息举措。另外金价更广泛的支撑仍来自政治层面对美联 储的政策压力。 昨日黄金市场早盘开盘在4132.2的位置后行情小幅回踩给出4129.4的位置后行情强势震荡拉升，日线最 高触及到了4173.9的位置后行情强势回落，给出4136的位置后拉 ...

Market Overview - European markets are expected to have a mixed open with the U.K.'s FTSE index slightly below flatline, Germany's DAX up 0.2%, France's CAC 40 up 0.1%, and Italy's FTSE MIB slightly higher [1] - The lackluster opening follows a positive trading session where the pan-European Stoxx 600 closed almost 1.1% higher, with most sectors and major regional bourses in the green [2] Economic Indicators - Global markets have been buoyed by rising expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with a 84.9% chance of a quarter percentage point cut being priced in for the December meeting [3] - In Europe, there are no major earnings reports on Thursday, but data releases include Germany's GfK consumer confidence survey and EU economic sentiment data [4] U.S. Market Context - U.S. markets experienced gains leading up to the Thanksgiving holiday, marking the fourth consecutive day of increases [3] - U.S. markets will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving, with trading resuming on Friday in a shortened session [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The weak employment performance in the US has increased the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December, and multiple overseas copper mines have production disturbances, which may make the Shanghai copper price cautiously bullish [2] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - On November 26, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai copper futures active contract was 86,590, a decrease of 10 from the previous day; the trading volume was 107,213 lots, an increase of 20,231 lots; the open interest was 204,728 lots, an increase of 5,146 lots; the inventory was 39,825 tons, a decrease of 1,140 tons [2] - The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 86,655, an increase of 45; the average price of SMM + water copper open discount was 35, an increase of 5; the average price of SMM premium copper open discount was 150, an increase of 5; the average price of SMM mixed copper open discount was -35, unchanged; the average price of SMM Guixi copper open discount was 175, an increase of 5 [2] - The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic disk) was 10,953, an increase of 120.5; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 month contract spread was 30.83, an increase of 21.31; the LME copper futures 3 - 15 month contract spread was 138.27, a decrease of 8.99; the Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 7.9056, a decrease of 0.09 [2] Supply - Demand - Inventory - Supply side: There are disturbances in the production of multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, the China copper concentrate import index continues to be negative, leading to a tight supply - demand expectation of domestic copper concentrates. The supply of scrap copper has increased, and the processing fees of domestic crude copper or anode plates have increased. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November has decreased month - on - month [2] - Demand side: The capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper strips, copper tubes, and brass rods have increased compared with last week, while the capacity utilization rate of recycled copper cups has decreased [2] - Inventory side: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper has decreased compared with last week, the inventory of LME electrolytic copper has increased compared with last week, and the inventory of COMEX copper has increased compared with last week [2] Trading Strategy - Short - term, lightly go long on the main contract on dips. Pay attention to the support level around 82,000 - 84,000 and the resistance level around 88,000 - 90,000 for Shanghai copper. For LME copper, pay attention to the support level around 10,300 - 10,500 and the resistance level around 11,000 - 11,500. For US copper, pay attention to the support level around 4.5 - 4.8 and the resistance level around 5.2 - 5.5 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent fluctuations in gold prices and the U.S. dollar index, driven by market expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, leading to a rise in gold and other precious metals prices [1][6]. Market Overview - As of November 27, the U.S. dollar index is trading below the 100 mark, while spot gold opened at $4162.46 per ounce and is currently around $4150 per ounce. Gold T+D is trading at approximately 940 yuan per gram, and the main Shanghai gold contract is around 946 yuan per gram [1]. - The previous trading day saw the dollar index decline by 0.24% to 99.569, with gold prices rising by 0.79% to close at $4162.35 per ounce, marking a new high in over a week [1]. Precious Metals Performance - Alongside gold, other precious metals also experienced price increases: - Spot silver rose by 3.60% to $53.31 per ounce - Spot platinum increased by 2.18% to $1588.15 per ounce - Spot palladium gained 2.59% to $1427.00 per ounce [1]. Inventory Data - As of November 26, COMEX gold inventory stands at 1137.35 tons, a decrease of 0.14 tons from the previous trading day. COMEX silver inventory is at 14248.10 tons, down by 35.79 tons [2]. - SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 4.57 tons to 1045.43 tons, while SLV silver ETF holdings remained unchanged at 15582.33 tons [2]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending November 22 recorded 216,000, lower than the expected 225,000 and the revised previous value of 222,000, marking the lowest level since April 12, 2025 [6].

基本面： 周四（11月27日）亚盘时段，现货黄金表现清淡进一步收窄波动区间，目前暂交投于4153美元附近。周三，现货黄金价格强势攀升，刷新逾一周高位，收报 每盎司4163.78美元，涨幅达0.8%，盘中一度触及4173.31美元的峰值。这一波上涨行情的背后，主要得益于市场对美联储12月降息预期的急剧升温，使得无 收益的黄金在低利率环境中脱颖而出。结合近期美国经济数据、美元走势、债市和股市的表现，以及美联储褐皮书的最新洞察，黄金市场的乐观前景正在逐 步展开。 美国近期公布的经济数据呈现出复杂的图景，一方面显示出劳动力市场的韧性，另一方面也暴露了潜在的疲软，这进一步强化了黄金作为避险工具的吸引 力。截至11月22日当周，美国初请失业金人数减少6000人，至21.6万人，创下4月以来最低水平，超出经济学家预期的22.5万人。这表明裁员活动仍处于较低 水平，企业支出也表现出色——9月份不包括飞机在内的非国防资本财订单增加0.9%，8月数据上修至同样水平。这些强劲指标本应提振美元和股市，但却 未能逆转降息预期，因为投资者更关注持续的经济不确定性。 另一份报告显示，续请失业金人数仍在上升，消费者对劳动力市场的信心正在下滑 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current oil price adjustment cycle indicates a potential decrease in domestic oil prices, with an expected reduction of 80 yuan/ton, translating to a drop of 0.06-0.07 yuan per liter, despite a recent rebound in international oil prices [1][3]. Oil Price Trends - The anticipated decrease in domestic oil prices has reduced by 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, suggesting a possible downward trend as it falls below the adjustment threshold [1]. - International oil prices have shown volatility, with U.S. crude oil rising by 0.77% to $58.55 per barrel and Brent crude increasing by 0.92% to $62.47 per barrel, before experiencing a slight decline [3]. - The market is currently facing expectations of oversupply, as indicated by an increase in U.S. EIA crude oil inventories by 2.77 million barrels, contrary to market expectations of a decrease [3]. Regional Price Adjustments - The following are the current prices for various fuel types across different regions in China: - Beijing: 92 gasoline at 6.89, 95 gasoline at 7.33, 98 gasoline at 8.83, 0 diesel at 6.56 [4]. - Shanghai: 92 gasoline at 6.85, 95 gasoline at 7.29, 98 gasoline at 9.19, 0 diesel at 6.50 [4]. - Guangdong: 92 gasoline at 6.91, 95 gasoline at 7.48, 98 gasoline at 9.48, 0 diesel at 6.53 [4]. - The price adjustments reflect regional variations, with prices for 92 gasoline ranging from 6.68 in Xinjiang to 8.00 in Hainan [5].

周四（11月27日）亚洲时段，黄金期货窄幅震荡，沪金主力最新交投于945元/克附近，截至发稿沪金主 力最高上探至949.94元/克，最低触及943.20元/克。受市场对美联储将在下月降息的预期提振，金价昨 日收阳，报收946.72元/克，涨幅0.02%。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 【最新黄金行情解析】 沪金主力合约参考运行区间917-967元/克，日图来看，金价近期保持中轨支撑上方持续震荡调整，目前 也再度持稳于30日等均线上方，布林带也开口向上延伸，多头占据优势，前景看涨预期加大，下方则关 注30日均线及中轨线支撑继续看涨为主，短期上方等待再度上探950-1000元目标。 隔夜美国经济数据向好，上周初请失业金人数减少，9月耐用品订单环比增速虽有下跌，但仍超预期， 市场对美联储降息预期继续升温，美元走弱，给金价一定支撑。 此外，地缘政治局势有望缓和，特朗普称促俄和谈取得巨大进展，美国特使将于下周访问莫斯科，俄乌 冲突的调停持续推进。 总体来看，美联储12月降息概率持续上升，但同时地缘风险趋于缓和，短期黄金价格震荡运行，长期则 继续受"去美元化"等长线因素支撑，黄金仍处长牛行情之中。 ...