行业 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2024 年 5 月 22 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚 ...

观点与策略 | 铁矿石：短期利多兑现，上涨驱动放缓 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：黑色板块共振，硅铁宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：钢招价格落地，锰硅宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：底部震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：底部震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：煤矿库存增加，震荡偏弱 | 9 | | 原木：弱势震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025年05月22日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 2025 年 5 月 22 日 铁矿石：短期利多兑现，上涨驱动放缓 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12509 | | 728. 5 | 3. 5 | 0. 48% | | | | ...

能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.co ...

Group 1 - The price of silicon manganese from Hebei Steel Group is reported at 5850 CNY/ton for May, with the first round of inquiries at 5700 CNY/ton, down from 5950 CNY/ton in April, and a projected price of 8000 CNY/ton for May 2024 [1] - The Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) has increased the export tax on crude palm oil (CPO) from 7.5% to 10%, which is expected to weaken Indonesia's competitiveness in the global palm oil market [1] - Malaysian palm oil production increased by 3.72% from May 1 to May 20, 2025, according to the Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers Association (SPPOMA) [1] Group 2 - A recent survey indicates that U.S. net sales of soybeans for the 2024/25 marketing year are expected to range between 100,000 to 300,000 tons as of the week ending May 15 [1] - The total inventory of refined oil at the Fujairah Oil Industrial Zone in the UAE was reported at 20.562 million barrels as of the week ending May 19, a decrease of 4.9% from the previous week [1] - Antofagasta, a global copper mining giant, has initiated mid-year negotiations with smelters in China and Japan, with reports suggesting that due to tight supply of copper concentrate, smelters may request "zero dollar" processing fees for the second half of 2025 [1] Group 3 - Guinea's transitional authorities have declared several mining rights related to bauxite, iron ore, gold, diamonds, and graphite as strategic reserve areas, as announced on national television [2] - Ivanhoe Mines has suspended underground mining operations at its Kakula copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo due to seismic activity, following a week of tremors [2] - A lithium salt company in Jiangxi is expected to halt production for maintenance for one factory in June for four months, which will impact carbon lithium production by approximately 1500 tons per month [2] Group 4 - The World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) reported a global surplus of refined copper of 20,500 tons and a surplus of primary aluminum of 277,200 tons for March 2025 [2] - The National Grain and Oil Information Center forecasts a gradual decrease in imported rapeseed volumes to China, with expected arrivals of 260,000 tons in May and 200,000 tons in June, with further reductions anticipated after July [2] - The average cost of molten iron (excluding tax) at mainstream steel mills in Tangshan has decreased by 4 CNY to 2148 CNY/ton, while the average cost of steel billets (including tax) has also been reduced by 4 CNY to 2898 CNY/ton [2]

智通财经5月22日电，COMEX黄金期货收涨0.97%报3316.6美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货收涨1.21%报 33.575美元/盎司。 ...

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 移，存量装置提负或削弱检修带来的影响。海外商品需求集中释放，EPS、PS、ABS库存高位去化，不过需 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 关注下游利润大幅下滑可能影响开工增长持续性。成本方面，美国与伊朗核谈判僵持不下，美国与其他国 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 家关税谈判持续推进，近期国际油价偏强；纯苯库存中性，国内装置重启及海外资源到港给到价格压力。E B2506下方关注7410附近支撑。 免责声明 苯乙烯产业日报 2025-05-21 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | ...

Core Viewpoint - The current geopolitical situation is influencing the market, particularly in the commodities sector, with a focus on the rising prices of gold and oil [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Gold and oil prices are experiencing an upward trend, indicating potential investment opportunities in these commodities [1] - The live analysis by a senior researcher aims to provide insights into the current market dynamics and future trends for gold, oil, and other commodities [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The discussion includes a forward-looking perspective on the fundamentals affecting gold and oil prices, suggesting that ongoing geopolitical changes may continue to impact these markets [1]

| | 影响。 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二，生猪期价近强远弱，远月合约 2509 期价位于 1.4 万整数关口之下，9 月期 | | | | 价贴水现货，近月合约进入到交割月之后贴水回归，价格反弹。现货市场方面， | | | | 生猪价格一直维持在成本线之上，猪价呈现偏乐观的预期。目前，河南生猪市场 | | | | 出栏均价为 14.86 元/公斤，较上周五降 0.07 元/公斤。当地大场 115-130 公斤良 | | | 生猪 | 种猪主流出栏价格 14.90-15.15 元/公斤，低价 14.70 元/公斤；中小场 115-140 | 震荡 | | | 公斤良种主流出栏价格 14.40 元/公斤左右，高价 14.60 元/公斤；170-175 公斤肥 | | | | 猪出栏价格 14.80 元/公斤左右。下游屠宰方面，屠宰企业中小场良种标猪主流收 | | | | 购价格 14.40-14.60 元/公斤，均重 115-125 公斤。整体来看，生猪 9 月合约贴水 | | | | 现货，饲料成本预期下降，对猪价形成价格压力。技术上，短期关注 9 月合约猪 | | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, methanol prices will fluctuate within a range, with the basis strengthening and trading volume being average. In the long - term, the methanol spot market may shift from a strong to a weakening oscillation [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price - The prices of some coal types (Jincheng big - smoke coal and Inner Mongolia thermal coal) remained unchanged at 1000.00 and 630.00 respectively. Sichuan - Chongqing liquefied gas price stayed at 4450.00. International natural gas price increased from 11.45 to 12.59, a rise of 1.14. Methanol prices in some regions changed: in Taicang, it dropped from 2325.00 to 2295.00; in Inner Mongolia, it decreased from 2120.00 to 2050.00; in Shandong, it went down from 2280.00 to 2260.00. Methanol prices in China, Southeast Asia, Northwest Europe, and the US remained stable. MTBE price increased from 4880.00 to 4920.00, while other related product prices such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid, and methane chloride remained unchanged [1]. Supply - Domestic methanol production decreased by 500.00 to 281465.00. Domestic methanol operating rate remained at 87.43, while international operating rate dropped from 69.33 to 67.60, a decrease of 1.73 [1]. Inventory - Both enterprise inventory and port inventory of methanol remained unchanged at 303910.00 and 561870.00 respectively [1]. Demand - Order backlog remained at 237780.00. The operating rates of various methanol - related downstream industries such as MTO, secondary chemical plants, formaldehyde, acetic acid, chloride, MTBE, etc., remained stable [1].

| | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/5/21 | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/5/20 2025/5/20 | 美元/桶 美元/桶 | 62.03 65.38 | 62.69 65.54 | 涨跌(幅) -1.05% -0.24% | | 上 游 | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/5/20 | 美元/吨 | 569.63 | 569.38 | 0.04% | | | 现货价(中间价):二甲苯(异构级):FOB韩国2025/5/20 | | 美元/吨 | 699.00 | 709.50 | -1.48% | | | 现货价:对二甲苯PX:CFR中国主港 | 2025/5/20 | 美元/吨 | 828.00 | 840.67 | -1.51% | | | CZCE TA 主力合约 收盘价 | 2025/5/20 | 元/吨 | 4732.00 | 4776.0 ...