SHMET 网讯： 进入5月以后，氧化铝自历史低位反弹，逐渐上涨至一个月高位。上周五，基本面突传利好，期价盘中迅速拉升并触及涨停。 氧化铝大幅反弹，主要受几内亚矿业政策扰动吗？几内亚采矿证撤销问题会对供应端产生什么样的影响？目前国内氧化铝企业开工如何？供应端压力较前期 有减弱吗？短期氧化铝强势状态能延续吗？未来需要重点关注哪些影响因素？文华财经【机构会诊】板块邀请氧化铝期货专家为您详细阐述。 【机构会诊】：氧化铝大幅反弹，主要受几内亚矿业政策扰动吗？几内亚采矿证撤销问题会对供应端产生什么样的影响？ 中原期货投资咨询部高级研究员 刘培洋：根据Mysteel报道，当地时间5月16日上午，几内亚矿业局对Axis矿区下达停工指令。该矿区包含顺达矿业等矿业公 司，涉及产能约4000万吨/年，2024年实产2300万吨（主要包括顺达1300万吨、中电十一局1000万吨），目前恢复时间不明。这是继5月15日几内亚政府吊销 46家矿业公司采矿证后 ，铝土矿供给扰动的进一步升级。受此影响，上周五晚间，氧化铝期货多个合约大幅上涨，盘中最高一度触及涨停。 中银国际期货研究咨询部有色高级研究员 刘超：几内亚是全球最大的铝土矿生产国之 ...

光伏行业：24 年全行业盈利能力下 滑，抢装带动 25 年 Q1 业绩回暖 ——24 年年报及 25 年一季报业绩综述 24 年光伏全行业营收下滑盈利转负，25 年 Q1 亏损幅度环比缩减。随着行业 供需错配，主产业链价格下跌，24 年光伏板块营收利润大幅下滑。24 年，光 伏全行业实现总营业收入 8410.82 亿元，下滑 24.4%，实现归母净利润-347.98 亿元，下滑 140.0%。2024 年全年光伏行业毛利率中值 8.07%，同比下降 9.47 个百分点，净利率中值 0.22%，同比下降 5.49 个百分点，创下近年来低点。 2025Q1 在政策带动的抢装下，行业需求排产复苏，带动业绩回暖，2025Q1 全行业实现归母净利润-68.38 亿元，环比减亏 72.2%，行业毛利率环比上升 1.91 个百分点至 6.76%，净利率环比上升 2.66 个百分点至-3.46%。 24 年主产业链全面由盈转亏，支架/逆变器板块逆势增长。2024 年，光伏板块 收入普遍下滑，各细分领域中，仅银浆/铝边框/支架/焊带/逆变器实现营收正增 长，收入同比增速分别为 39.6%/37.2%/31.4%/20.4%/6 ...

光伏主产业链现金流承压，逆变器业绩高增 投资评级：推荐（维持） 邮箱：xuzj@hlzq.com ——光伏行业2024年及2025年一季报业绩综述 华龙证券研究所 电力设备行业 分析师：杨阳 SAC执业证书编号：S0230523110001 邮箱：yangy@hlzq.com 分析师：许紫荆 SAC执业证书编号：S0230524080001 2025年05月14日 证券研究报告 请认真阅读文后免责条款 最近一年市场走势（单位：%） 相关报告 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 2 0 2 4 - 0 5 2 0 2 4 - 0 6 2 0 2 4 - 0 7 2 0 2 4 - 0 8 2 0 2 4 - 0 9 2 0 2 4 -10 2 0 2 4 -11 2 0 2 4 -12 2 0 2 5 - 01 2 0 2 5 - 0 2 2 0 2 5 - 0 3 2 0 2 5 - 0 4 2 0 2 5 - 0 5 光伏设备 沪深300 | 关 报 | | --- | | 相 | | aba | | 相对沪深300表现 | | | （单位：%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Group 1 - A significant rumor in the silicon material industry suggests that six companies, including GCL-Poly Energy (03800.HK) and Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SH), are planning to establish a large fund of 70 billion yuan to acquire and integrate silicon material production capacity [2][4] - The authenticity of the rumor remains unverified, with industry insiders indicating that it is still in a discussion phase and lacks concrete details [2][4] - There are indications that the six companies have begun joint operations to formulate a plan within three months, aiming to raise silicon material prices to 60,000 yuan per ton [3][4] Group 2 - The silicon material market has experienced a continuous decline in prices for five weeks, attributed to high inventory levels and a rapid drop in downstream product prices [5][6] - Current market conditions show that the production capacity utilization rate has significantly decreased to a range of 30% to 40%, with some companies planning to reduce production further [6][7] - The overall supply of silicon material is currently exceeding demand, with an estimated production capacity of around 3 million tons against a demand of approximately 2 million tons [6][7] Group 3 - The silicon material industry is facing severe losses, with major companies collectively reporting losses exceeding 18.4 billion yuan last year due to supply-demand imbalances and intense competition [7] - Recommendations for addressing the industry's challenges include strict adherence to production limits, collaboration between upstream and downstream companies, and participation in capacity replacement plans to eliminate outdated production capacity [7]

关注 「电动车公社」 和我们一起重新思考汽车 《今日新闻》将会每天给大家带来几条当日重磅新闻，并附上社长的简单评论。关注「电动车公社」，新能源圈大事小事 看我们就够啦～ 今日新闻要点： 雷军回应近期小米SU7事故 5月16日，雷军官宣小米手机芯 片 玄戒O1即将发布当天，雷军在小米内部发表演讲，谈及了近期发生的小米SU7事故。 雷军表示，谁也没有想到，这一场事故的影响如此之大，对小米的打击也如此之大。15岁的小米，不再是行业的新人，在任何一个产业里面都没有了新手保护 期，要有更高的标准和目标。 跌破成本盈亏平衡线 1、 雷军回应近期小米SU7事故； 碳酸锂价格跌至6.5万元/吨，跌破成本盈亏平衡线； 新款蔚来ES6/EC6上市，售价33.8万元/35.8万元起； 近日，根据有色金属网最新数据，国产电池级碳酸锂均价已降至65050元/吨，这一 价格相较于今年年初进一步大幅下降。部分碳酸锂生产企业表示，这一价格 已经跌破了业内公认的7万元/吨成本盈亏平衡线，这种状况不可持续。 如此看来，尽管新能源汽车越卖越多，锂电池需求量越来越大，但早年前原材料企业疯狂扩产所带来的产能过剩的问题，仍然没能得到解决。在内卷竞争之 ...

能源化工日报 日度观点: ◆ PVC： ◆ 烧碱： 5 月 15 日受魏桥上调采购价和氧化铝大涨影响，主力 SH09 合约收 2567 元/吨（+37），山东市场主流价 830 元/吨（0），折百 2594 元/吨（0）， 液氯山东-50 元/吨（-100）。5 月 16 日开始，山东地区某氧化铝厂家采 购 32%离子膜碱价格上调 15 元/吨，执行出厂 760 元/吨（折百 2375 元/ 吨）。截至 20250515，隆众资讯统计全国 20 万吨及以上固定液碱样本 企业厂库库存 41.59 万吨(湿吨)，环比上调 7.09%，同比上涨 1.74%。山 东意外检修较多，近期液氯与烧碱价格均反弹。中期看，供应端，减产 装置中下旬陆续恢复，利润尚可、开工高位，新装置有少量投产预期， 库存高位去库不畅，供应同比压力偏大。需求端，关税影响烧碱下游非 铝行业需求（如印染化纤），非铝有补库放缓，五月后步入淡季；氧化 铝投产与降负并存，边际企业亏损减停产增多，需求边际转弱预期，魏 桥的烧碱日均收货量低于日耗，支撑采购价上涨；海外有氧化铝新投产， 烧碱出口存一定支撑，呈现阶段性签单。总的来看，短期供应减量和关 税缓和有支撑 ...

化工子行业年报和 1 季报深度梳理 - 钛白粉 20250515 摘要 Q&A 2024 年及 2025 年一季度钛白粉行业的价格变化情况如何？ 2024 年全年钛白粉价格呈现下行趋势，尽管在传统旺季（3-4 月和 9-10 月） 通常会有显著上涨，但去年情况有所不同。2024 年初，由于春节检修导致开 工率下降，加之原材料钛矿价格坚挺，一季度钛白粉市场均价有所上升。然而， 随着第一个旺季结束，二季度进入传统淡季，价格逐渐恢复到一季度初的水平。 特别是三季度，本应是销售旺季的 9-10 月份，钛白粉价格累计下滑约 500 元， 库存高位及采购需求不旺导致市场情绪低迷。进入 2025 年一季度后，虽然出 现一定程度的价格上涨，但四月份以后又开始逐渐下滑，上游钛矿价格也从高 位快速下行，目前市场均价约为 1,700 元。 钛白粉行业供给侧面临哪些压力？ 钛白粉行业长期过剩问题日益凸显。2024 年新增产能约 71 万吨，而 2025 年 预计新增产能接近 140 万吨。截至 2024 年底，总产能已达 650 万吨以上，如 果今年新增产能全部投放，到年底国内总产能将达到 800 万吨左右，这几乎接 近全球每年的实 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent supply-side adjustments and maintenance in the alumina industry have provided a boost to the market, leading to a rebound in alumina prices, with the main contract surpassing the 3000 yuan mark, reaching a one-and-a-half-month high [2][4]. Supply-Side Dynamics - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have issued a plan for high-quality development in the aluminum industry, which includes no new capacity for electrolytic aluminum and alumina in key pollution prevention areas. However, some companies are reportedly circumventing these regulations by launching alumina projects under the guise of "hydroxide alumina" [4]. - Several alumina companies have begun maintenance and production cuts due to increasing losses, leading to a temporary decline in alumina output and supporting price rebounds. Notable production cuts include a major alumina plant in Shanxi and several plants in Shandong and Guizhou, collectively affecting around 300,000 tons of capacity [5][6]. Inventory and Cost Trends - Recent fluctuations in production have led to a decrease in alumina inventory, with total inventory reported at 3.891 million tons, down 55,000 tons from May 1 [7]. - The cost of alumina production is expected to decline due to falling prices of imported bauxite and caustic soda. The weighted average cost of alumina production in China was reported at 3033.4 yuan per ton, down approximately 125 yuan from the previous month [9][11]. Long-Term Outlook - Despite short-term price support from production cuts, the long-term outlook suggests that alumina supply may remain in surplus due to the potential recovery of previously cut capacities and new capacity releases. The industry is projected to add 2.6 million tons of new capacity in May alone [6][11]. - The demand for alumina may face limitations due to a hard cap on electrolytic aluminum production capacity, which is set at 45.5 million tons, restricting significant increases in alumina demand [6]. Market Sentiment - The alumina market is currently experiencing a rebound due to supply-side disruptions and maintenance, but the overall supply-demand balance remains precarious, with potential for continued oversupply in the future. Market participants are advised to monitor capacity release schedules, bauxite price changes, and demand performance closely [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The inventory situation in the liquor industry has shifted from being a source of profit to a burden for distributors due to declining terminal prices and rising storage costs [1][2]. Inventory Trends - 90% of liquor companies are experiencing an increase in inventory, with companies like Gujinggongjiu showing over 20% year-on-year growth [2]. - As of the end of 2024, 18 out of 20 listed liquor companies reported a year-on-year increase in inventory, with Gujinggongjiu's inventory growing by 25.27% [2]. - The inventory of semi-finished products (including base liquor) at Gujinggongjiu rose from 234,300 tons in 2023 to 293,500 tons in 2024 [2]. Inventory Pressure Transmission - High inventory risks are shifting from the market to upstream enterprises due to weak demand and reduced sales [3]. - The inventory turnover rates and other indicators for liquor companies are deteriorating, indicating a broader industry issue [3]. Inventory Proportions - Over 40% of inventory proportion is reported in several companies, with 13 out of 20 companies showing a year-on-year increase in inventory proportion by the end of 2024 [4]. - By the first quarter of 2025, 17 out of 20 companies continued to show an increase in inventory proportion, with companies like Kuozi Jiao and Shede Jiuye exceeding 40% [4]. - Head companies like Moutai maintain lower inventory proportions, generally below 20% [4]. Market Dynamics - The social attributes of Chinese liquor remain unchanged, particularly for high-end products, which still have strong demand in social settings [5]. - The disparity in inventory levels is influenced by the product structure and development stage of each company [5]. Channel and Inventory Interaction - The differentiation in inventory levels is also reflected in the channel dynamics, with leading companies having established robust sales networks, while smaller companies struggle with market penetration [6]. Base Liquor Inventory Growth - Among the 20 liquor companies, 12 reported an upward trend in inventory goods, with all 16 companies reporting an increase in semi-finished product inventory [7]. - Companies like Jiugui Jiu reported that their inventory accounted for over 34% of total assets, with base liquor making up 67.75% of their inventory value [7]. Production Expansion Amidst Overcapacity - Many liquor companies are still expanding production despite the recognized overcapacity in the industry [8]. - Companies like Shede Jiuye and Jiugui Jiu have low capacity utilization rates, yet continue to expand production [8]. Price Control Strategies - In response to overcapacity and market adjustments, many liquor companies are adopting "volume control to support prices" strategies [9]. - The pricing mechanism is influenced by supply-demand relationships, with companies actively reducing inventory pressure to maintain price differentials [9].

对于精对苯二甲酸(PTA)行业来说，持续不断的贸易战以及贸易政策不确定性给市场带来重重阻力，价 格更是一度跌至近4年低位。后市来看，原料对二甲苯(PX)或维持高位蚕食利润、自身产能过剩难寻泄 压出口，而下游的不景气更是雪上加霜，三方合围下，业内人士认为，PTA价格或持续低谷徘徊。 市场供应充足 我国PTA行业产能扩张明显，新装置不断投产，短短20年就跃升为全球PTA第一大国。截至3月底，我 国PTA总产能达到8620万吨。 卓创资讯分析师安光表示，PTA民营企业的迅速崛起加剧了行业变革，一体化竞争格局形成并逐年强 化。PTA行业龙头供应商几乎全部形成"PX—PTA—聚酯"配套格局，企业应对市场风险能力也得到提 升。 作为PTA重要下游的聚酯行业，国内产能独占全球70%。虽然2020—2024年国内聚酯产能持续增加但增 幅逐步放缓，行业出现过剩危机，新增产能逐步减少，部分落后产能正被迫淘汰出局退出市场。 虽然下游聚酯项目在逐步投产，国内PTA表观需求量呈增长态势，但PTA产能增速高于下游聚酯增速， 市场基本由买方主宰。 原料价格难降 原料PX在经历产能快速释放期后，目前扩能步伐放缓。此前我国PX商品对外依赖度高 ...