Group 1 - The Japanese Finance Minister, Kato Katsunobu, emphasized the importance of monitoring the Japanese government bond market conditions [1] - The government will implement appropriate debt management measures in response to market developments [1]

Primary Market Review - The issuance scale of government bonds, local bonds, and policy financial bonds last week was 430.8 billion, 261.8 billion, and 162 billion respectively, with net financing amounts of 135.1 billion, 124.3 billion, and 63.6 billion [1] - Financial bonds (excluding policy financial bonds) had a total issuance scale of 122.5 billion, with a net financing amount of -7.2 billion [1] - Non-financial credit bonds had a total issuance scale of 392.8 billion, with a net financing amount of 107.3 billion [1] - Two new convertible bonds were issued, with an expected financing scale of 0.9 billion [1] Secondary Market Review - Short-term interest rates in the bond market decreased while long-term rates fluctuated, influenced by factors such as liquidity, the Lujiazui conference, institutional behaviors, and geopolitical conflicts [2] Liquidity Tracking - Last week, there was a net injection through OMO, while MLF matured and was withdrawn, with the central bank conducting buyback operations to support the liquidity during the tax period [3] - The R001 and R007 rates decreased by 1.4 basis points and increased by 1 basis point respectively compared to the previous week [3] Policy and Fundamentals - Economic data for May showed stable production, rising consumption, and declining investment, with structural concerns remaining [4] - High-frequency data indicated a month-on-month decline in production, a decrease in both domestic and external consumption, and price differentiation in the production and residential sectors, with the Middle East conflict driving oil prices significantly higher [4] Overseas Market - The Federal Reserve's June FOMC statement was slightly hawkish, but U.S. consumption and production data were disappointing, exacerbating risk aversion in overseas markets [5] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.38%, down 3 basis points from the previous week [5] Equity Market - The A-share market experienced a decline in most broad-based indices due to capital outflows from new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals, as well as the impact of the Israel-Palestine conflict [6] - Specifically, the Wind All A index fell by 1.07%, the Wind Micro-Cap index dropped by 2.18%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.45%, and the Sci-Tech 50 fell by 1.55% [6] - A-share trading volume decreased, with an average daily turnover of 1.22 trillion, down 156.644 billion week-on-week [6] - As of June 19, 2025, the total financing balance for the entire A-share market was 1,809.167 billion, an increase of 0.188 billion from June 12 [6] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - Factors favorable to the bond market are gradually increasing in the second half of the year, with bond yields likely to face upward pressure [7] - The 10-year government bond yield has already reflected macro expectations to some extent, and short-term long-end rates are unlikely to present significant excess opportunities in the near term [7] - Short-term rates are still some distance from previous lows, and banks are balancing duration pressures, which may accumulate buying power for short-term bonds [7] - The logic of under-allocation in credit bonds continues, with a strategy prioritizing coupon collection in the short term [7] - In the convertible bond market, supply-demand conflicts persist, and liquidity remains relatively loose, with some banks redeeming convertible bonds, making core varieties scarcer [7] - The convertible bond index has reached the upper range of its fluctuation zone, and opportunities in the index require catalysts, necessitating a focus on switching core varieties and monitoring for trading opportunities driven by sentiment [7]

Market Performance - The majority of government bond futures closed lower, with the 30-year main contract down 0.04% at 121.290, and the 10-year main contract down 0.01% at 109.155 [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly increased, with the 30-year government bond yield rising by 0.1 basis points to 1.8380%, and the 10-year government bond yield increasing by 0.15 basis points to 1.7070% [1] Funding Situation - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 220.5 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being the winning bid [2] - The overall funding situation is relatively loose, with overnight pledged repo rates slightly declining but remaining around 1.37%, while the 7-day pledged repo rate increased by over 1 basis point [2] News Developments - Recent reports indicate that the scope of special bonds is expanding, with new uses including investment in government investment funds [3] - The new special bond issuance is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year, focusing on land acquisition and settling local government debts [3] Operational Suggestions - Recent high-frequency data shows signs of weakening in exports, while the central bank's signals of support and declining funding rates are favorable for the bond market [4] - The overall bond rates are expected to maintain a downward trend, with a potential breakthrough at the 1.6% level for the 10-year government bond yield if the central bank resumes bond purchases [4]

日期 2025 年 6 月 24 日 行业 国债日报 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | 表1：国债期货6月23日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2509 | 121.340 | 121.500 | 121.290 | 121.260 | -0.050 | -0.04 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals - Spot platinum (XPTUSD) is priced at 1287.270, increasing by 17.640 or 1.39% [2] - Spot palladium (XPDUSD) is priced at 1072.851, increasing by 28.742 or 2.75% [2] - Gold (COMEX GC) is priced at 3398.000, increasing by 13.600 or 0.40% [2] - Silver (COMEX SI) is priced at 36.145, increasing by 0.195 or 0.54% [2] Group 2: Foreign Exchange - Euro to USD (EURUSD) decreased by 0.30% to 1.149 [3] - GBP to USD (GBPUSD) decreased by 0.18% to 1.342 [3] - USD to JPY (USDJPY) increased by 0.82% to 147.298 [3] - AUD to USD (AUDUSD) decreased by 0.85% to 0.640 [3] - USD to CHF (USDCHF) decreased by 0.12% to 0.817 [3] Group 3: Cryptocurrencies - Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at 101999.990, increasing by 1036.120 or 1.03% [4] - Litecoin (LTC) is priced at 81.820, increasing by 1.610 or 2.01% [4] - Ethereum (ETH) is priced at 2289.400, increasing by 61.700 or 2.77% [4] - Ripple (XRP) is priced at 2.024, increasing by 0.007 or 0.35% [4] Group 4: Treasury Bonds - The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond is 3.887 [6] - The yield on the 5-year U.S. Treasury bond is 3.928, decreasing by 0.033 or 0.83% [7] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond is 4.338, decreasing by 0.037 or 0.85% [7] - The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond is 4.861, decreasing by 0.028 or 0.57% [7] - The yield on the 10-year UK Treasury bond is 4.511, decreasing by 0.030 or 0.66% [7] - The yield on the 10-year German Treasury bond is 2.502, decreasing by 0.013 or 0.52% [7] - The yield on the 10-year French Treasury bond is 3.231, decreasing by 0.014 or 0.43% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Italian Treasury bond is 3.514, decreasing by 0.013 or 0.37% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Japanese Treasury bond is 1.409, increasing by 0.016 or 1.15% [7]

[Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 固收周报 一致预期下 7 成固收卖方看多债市 ——债市情绪面周报（6 月第 4 周） 执业证书号：S0010525060002 电话：15851599909 邮箱：hongziyan@hazq.com 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary] 华安观点：一致预期下挖掘曲线凸点，把握右侧止盈窗口 当前投资者对于债市一致预期较强，地缘政治、内外宏观环境利好债市， 货币政策处于宽松趋势，供给逻辑的冲击也有望在三季度放缓，债券市场的 一致预期似乎短期很难发生反转，此时可以继续挖掘曲线上的凸点以及仍有 利差的部分券种（20Y 国债、9Y 政金债等），半年末时点债市波动或放大， 在维持久期的同时应做好右侧应对及时止盈。 ⚫ 卖方观点：情绪指数逼近年内新高，超 7 成固收卖方看多债市 从市场情绪的角度出发，本周超 7 成固收卖方看多债市，情绪明显升温， 21 家偏多、6 家中性、2 家偏空，其中： 固收买方观点整体偏多为主。从当前市场买方观点来看，14 家偏多，13 家中性，其中： 报告日期： 2025-06-23 [Table_Author] 首席分析师：颜子 ...

Group 1 - The US Treasury market has experienced significant volatility this year, driven by concerns over rising government deficits, tariff disputes, and changes in foreign buyer demand [1][3] - Investor panic has been primarily fueled by worries regarding Trump's tariff policies and the expanding US budget deficit, which may lead to higher inflation and sustained high interest rates [3][4] - The French bank Société Générale anticipates that the current turmoil in the US Treasury market is unlikely to end in the short term, with major developments expected to impact the market [1][4] Group 2 - Key developments to watch in the US Treasury market include a surge in new debt issuance as the government increases borrowing and the Federal Reserve continues quantitative tightening [4] - The demand for stablecoins, supported by short-term US Treasury bills, may boost demand for government bonds, with stablecoin issuers' asset management expected to grow significantly [4]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing slight differentiation in trends, with government bond futures mostly declining, while interbank cash bond yields have turned downward, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics due to continued monetary policy easing by the central bank [1][7]. Market Trends - On June 23, government bond futures closed mostly lower, with the 30-year main contract down 0.04% at 121.290, and the 10-year main contract down 0.01% at 109.155 [2]. - The interbank major rate bond yields mostly decreased, with the 10-year government bond yield down 0.1 basis points to 1.6370% [2]. - The China Convertible Bond Index rose by 0.43% to 434.97 points, with a trading volume of 543.51 billion yuan [2]. International Market Overview - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields collectively fell, with the 10-year yield down 1.59 basis points to 4.373% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields increased, with the 10-year yield rising 1.5 basis points to 1.413% [3]. - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds from France, Germany, Italy, and Spain all decreased, while the UK saw a slight increase in its 10-year yield [3]. Primary Market Activity - The 10-year "Inner Mongolia 2517" bond had a winning bid rate of 1.77%, with a total bid multiple of 26.15 [4]. - Guizhou Province's five local bonds showed strong demand, with bid multiples exceeding 28 times for all issues [4]. Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 220.5 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a rate of 1.40% on June 23, with the total bid amount matching the amount accepted [5]. - Short-term Shibor rates mostly declined, with the overnight rate down 0.1 basis points to 1.367% [5]. Institutional Insights - Institutions note a current supply-demand imbalance in the bond market, with strong supply and weak demand, particularly in short-term bonds [7]. - There is potential for a shift in this dynamic due to an increase in government bond maturities and possible reductions in insurance long-term liability costs [7]. - The overall sentiment in the bond market remains cautious, with expectations of continued monetary policy easing and potential recovery in government bond trading [7].

Group 1 - The trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets has exceeded 500 billion, with an estimated total trading amount of approximately 1.1 trillion for the day [1] - The bond futures market is mostly flat, with the 30-year main contract up by 0.13%, while the 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year main contracts remain flat [1] - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera (511130) opened high but fluctuated downwards during the day, increasing by 4 basis points with a turnover rate exceeding 12% and a trading volume close to 1 billion [1] Group 2 - There is an expectation of a second interest rate cut this year, with rates likely to fluctuate downwards before the cut, suggesting a strategy of increasing bond allocation during rate hikes [2] - The Bosera 30-year government bond ETF (511130) was established in March 2024 and is one of only two on-market ultra-long-term bond ETFs, tracking the "Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-Year Government Bond Index" [2] - The index reflects the overall performance of 30-year government bonds listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with a duration of approximately 21 years, making it highly sensitive to interest rate changes [2]

为什么债市仍有下行空间：三个超预期 20250622 摘要 下半年科创债和信用债 ETF 供给增加，形成通缩式供给，导致整体利率 下降，信用价差降低，无论信用债走强或波动，均利好利率债。 老券与新券利差压缩，新券表现更好，但新国开 10 年期国债下行阻力 增大，市场对进一步降息预期谨慎，无需等待货币政策信号。 市场对经济韧性估计充分，即使无强货币政策支撑，仍可操作新旧兼顾， 预计突破前低。资金主要在低风险资产间流动，市场风险偏好未显著提 升。 债市表现谨慎，但贷款利率下行未完全反映在债券利率中，债市仍有向 下定价空间，可能突破前低 10-20 个基点。政策利率降息使用谨慎，全 年降息幅度或仅 10-20 个基点。 货币政策传导速度较慢，前期降息效果需时消化，同业存单利率或进一 步下行。长资金不宽松，政策利率下行空间有限。 信用债基准做市 ETF 和科创债 ETF 扩容迅速，重叠券套利潜力大，长久 期资产受益。科创债集中度更高，大规模单券更受追逐，一级市场压估 值现象明显。 转债市场抗跌性强，估值抬升，银行、非银及券商转债提议下修超预期。 建议加强低价转债配置，寻找底仓替代性标的，并关注光伏类短贷。 Q&A 未 ...