供给侧改革再临，债市是否重蹈覆辙？ 徐晨曦（投资咨询资格证号：Z0001908） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年7月22日 自7月初中央财经委会议提出"治理企业低价无序竞争，推动落后产能有序退出"以来，市场炒作"供给侧改 革"的热度再起，股市与商品相关板块反应积极，而7月18日工信部在新闻发布会上宣布十大重点行业淘汰落 后产能的消息将行情推向了新的高度。这不禁令人想起2016-2017年供给侧改革给工业品带来的巨大牛市，而 与此同时10年国债在2.6%-3.0%区间震荡了三个季度后爆发债灾难，此后步入熊市。如今供给侧改革再度来 临，债市是否会重蹈覆辙？ 图1.国债收益率与南华工业品指数 数据来源：Wind、南华研究 从基本面来看，上一轮供给侧改革开启之时，PPI已经历了四年多的负增长，产能过剩及其明显，亟需 去产能、去库存来扭转局面。彼时居民与地方政府资产负债表尚无太大问题，搭配供给侧改革，政策方面启 动了货币化棚改，迅速推升了房地产需求，房地产开工面积在2016年一季度一举转正，并在此后两年保持了 较高增速。供给缩减加上需求扩张促使PPI自2016年三季度开始转正，摆脱了通缩态 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report -下半年降息不确定性增加，需关注7月政治局会议增量信号 [5][36] -若降息落地或相对后置，三季度末或四季度概率高，幅度或延续上半年10BP；若无降息落地，流动性无需过多担忧，债市短端或受冲击，中长期呈震荡格局 [5][36][40] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Possible Scenarios and Boundaries of Interest Rate Cuts - **Monetary Expansion May Not Boost Prices**: "Promoting a reasonable recovery of prices" has become an important consideration for monetary policy. The relationship between prices and money is affected by multiple factors. Overseas, quantitative easing may not solve "low inflation." In China, the current supply - demand imbalance means that monetary expansion may suppress price recovery, so the use of aggregate monetary policy will be more cautious [2][9][12] - **Smoothing the Interest Rate Transmission Mechanism is Also Key**: Besides interest rate cuts, smoothing the interest rate transmission mechanism is crucial for reducing real - economy financing costs. Attention will be paid to financial institutions' pricing ability and enterprises' non - interest costs, especially considering the low net interest margin of commercial banks [3][21] - **Dynamic Balance of Monetary Policy**: The 5.3% GDP growth in H1 2025 reduces the urgency of interest rate cuts in the short term. In supporting expansionary fiscal policy, the central bank has various tools, and interest rate cuts may not be the top option. The central bank's support will be "moderately loose" and maintain a dynamic balance [4][27][29] 3.2 If There is No Interest Rate Cut in the Second Half of the Year - **Interest Rate Cut Scenario**: If an interest rate cut occurs, it may be postponed to the end of Q3 or Q4, with a likely 10BP reduction [5][36] - **No Interest Rate Cut Scenario**: The supportive monetary policy stance remains. Liquidity is not a major concern. In the bond market, short - term bonds may be impacted if market expectations are disappointed. In the long - term, there will be an oscillation pattern, and attention should be paid to factors causing bond market fluctuations [5][40]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "固收周报 - 债市回调，但情绪依然乐观 —— 债市情绪面周报（7 月第 3 周）" [1] - Report Type: Fixed Income Weekly Report [10][16][28] - Analysts: Yan Ziqi, Hong Ziyan [3] Group 2: Core Views - Current bond market situation: Sellers are bullish, while buyers expect a sideways trend. Recent anti - involution and consumption policies, along with the strength of the infrastructure sector, have led to a weak performance in the bond market. After the major tax period, the capital market is generally stable, with a slight increase in interest rates [3]. - Outlook for the future: The probability of unexpected incremental policies in the Politburo meeting in July is low. The market still expects the central bank to restart treasury bond trading. There are still uncertainties in the Sino - US tariff situation in August. It is expected that the fundamental situation in the second half of the year will not be negative for the bond market. At the micro - level, as large banks increase their net purchases of certificates of deposit and short - term treasury bonds, the steepening of the yield curve may continue. The bond market has been sideways for three months, and the use of various investment strategies by investors is quite saturated, with high market congestion, so the probability of continued sideways movement is high [3]. - Market sentiment: Nearly 60% of fixed - income sellers are still bullish on the bond market this week, but the sentiment has declined compared to last week. Fixed - income buyers' views are generally neutral to bullish, and the sentiment index has remained unchanged for two weeks [3][4]. Group 3: Seller and Buyer Market 3.1 Seller Market - Sentiment index: The weighted sentiment index is 0.37, and the unweighted index is 0.54, down 0.1 from last week. 15 institutions are bullish, 10 are neutral, and 1 are bearish [11]. - Bullish institutions (58%): Key factors include lack of support on the commodity demand side, reduced sensitivity of the bond market to equities, and stable capital operation after the tax period [11]. - Neutral institutions (38%): Key factors include the neutral impact of the unfreezing of pledged bonds on the bond market, resilient economic data, and accelerated issuance of local government bonds in the future [11]. - Bearish institutions (4%): Key factors include that the unfreezing of pledged bonds does not mean the central bank will restart bond purchases, and the stock - bond ratio leads to an increase in bond market interest rates [11]. 3.2 Buyer Market - Sentiment index: The sentiment index is 0.13, remaining unchanged from last week. 5 institutions are bullish, and 13 are neutral [12]. - Bullish institutions (28%): Key factors include the resonance of slowing nominal GDP growth and monetary easing, average economic data, a friendly central bank attitude, and increased fiscal fund investment [12]. - Neutral institutions (72%): Key factors include that the impact of the tax period on the capital market has not completely ended, the stock - bond跷跷板 effect still exists, good production, investment, and export data, possible improvement in Sino - US relations, uncertainties in the Politburo meeting at the end of the month, and the need for substantial news to break the deadlock [12]. Group 4: Bond Market Segments 4.1 Credit Bonds - Market trends: Financial management funds are entering the market, and the Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF is expanding. The spread is expected to compress slightly due to the entry of financial management funds and the support from the central bank for science and technology innovation bonds [19][20]. 4.2 Convertible Bonds - Market view: Institutions are generally bullish this week. All 8 institutions hold a bullish attitude, supported by short - term supply - demand issues, the allocation demand of fixed - income + institutions, the urgency of conversion near maturity, and clause games [22]. Group 5: Treasury Bond Futures Tracking 5.1 Futures Trading - Price: As of July 18, the prices of TS/TF/T/TL contracts were 102.43 yuan, 105.99 yuan, 108.79 yuan, and 120.46 yuan respectively, down 0.02 yuan, 0.01 yuan, 0.04 yuan, and 0.15 yuan from last Friday [24]. - Open interest: The open interest of TS/TF/T/TL contracts decreased by 1753, 4914, 5152, and 3403 hands respectively compared to last Friday [24]. - Trading volume: From a 5 - day moving average perspective, the trading volumes of TS/TF/T/TL contracts decreased by 170.93 billion yuan, 117.46 billion yuan, 106.42 billion yuan, and 128.95 billion yuan respectively compared to last Friday [24]. - Trading volume to open interest ratio: The trading volume to open interest ratios of TS/TF/T/TL contracts decreased by 0.07, 0.07, 0.04, and 0.09 respectively compared to last Friday [25]. 5.2 Spot Bond Trading - Turnover rate: The turnover rates of 30 - year treasury bonds, interest - rate bonds, and 10 - year China Development Bank bonds all decreased. On July 18, the turnover rates were 2.86%, 0.82%, and 5.14% respectively, down 3.17pct, 0.15pct, and 0.44pct from last week [32][43]. 5.3 Basis Trading - Basis: The basis of TS and T main contracts widened, while others narrowed. As of July 18, the basis of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts were 0.003 yuan, 0.01 yuan, 0.06 yuan, and 0.22 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.003 yuan, - 0.01 yuan, +0.06 yuan, and - 0.12 yuan from last Friday [41]. - Net basis: The net basis of TF and TL main contracts widened, while others narrowed. As of July 18, the net basis of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts were - 0.01 yuan, - 0.02 yuan, 0.02 yuan, and - 0.05 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.01 yuan, - 0.002 yuan, +0.08 yuan, and - 0.08 yuan from last Friday [42][45]. - IRR: The IRR of main contracts showed mixed trends. As of July 18, the IRR of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts were 1.56%, 1.65%, 1.37%, and 1.71% respectively, with changes of - 0.02%, +0.06%, - 0.39%, and +0.36% from last Friday [45]. 5.4 Spread Trading - Inter - delivery spread: The inter - delivery spread of T contracts widened, while others narrowed. As of July 18, the near - month minus far - month spreads of TS/TF/T/TL contracts were - 0.07 yuan, - 0.06 yuan, - 0.05 yuan, and 0.18 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.03 yuan, +0.05 yuan, - 0.01 yuan, and +0 yuan from last Friday [52]. - Inter - product spread: Except for the 3*T - TL contract, the inter - product spreads of other main contracts widened. As of July 18, 2*TS - TF, 2*TF - T, 4*TS - T, and 3*T - TL were 98.86 yuan, 103.20 yuan, 300.93 yuan, and 205.90 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.01 yuan, +0.06 yuan, +0.09 yuan, and - 0.03 yuan from last Friday [53].

Report Title - Fixed Income Weekly Report (2025/07/14 - 2025/07/18) [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The bond market has been in a volatile and weak pattern recently, with the 10-year Treasury yield fluctuating narrowly around 1.65%. Attention should be paid to the upcoming Politburo meeting in July, which is expected to continue the policy tone of "stabilizing growth, employment, and prices", but the probability of large-scale stimulus is low [6]. - The stock-bond seesaw effect has significantly strengthened recently, and the trend of the equity market has become a key marginal driving factor for the bond market. The central bank maintains a precise regulatory approach of "smoothing peaks and filling valleys". In the future, due to factors such as the increased supply of government bonds, the central bank may continue refined regulation, and the capital market will maintain a stable and slightly tight pattern [7]. - In terms of operation strategy, it is recommended to maintain a trading mindset. The 10-year Treasury yield above 1.70% can be considered an attractive allocation area, and 1.80% is a strong upper pressure limit. In the short term, the market may remain volatile, and investors should wait patiently and focus on the equity market trend, the actual intensity of the central bank's liquidity operations, and the policy signals released by the Politburo meeting [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. One-week View - The Politburo meeting in July is expected to continue the policy direction of "stabilizing growth, employment, and prices", but the probability of large-scale strong stimulus is low. Fiscal policy may focus on implementing existing policies, real estate policy may optimize purchase and sale restrictions, consumption policy may continue trade-in subsidies, and "anti-involution" policies may drive the recovery of PPI [6]. - The stock-bond seesaw effect has strengthened, and the equity market trend is a key factor for the bond market. The central bank maintains precise regulation, and the capital market will remain stable and slightly tight. It is recommended to maintain a trading mindset and wait for opportunities [7]. 2. Weekly Bond Market Review - On July 14, macro data and capital market disturbances led to bond market fluctuations. The 10-year Treasury yield first rose and then fell due to factors such as export data, equity market strength, and central bank operations [8]. - On July 15, the divergence of economic data and the failure of policy expectations dominated the market. The 10-year Treasury yield declined as the central city work conference did not release unexpected policy signals [8][9]. - On July 16, the tight balance of the capital market restricted the bond market performance, and the 10-year Treasury yield fluctuated narrowly [9]. - On July 17, the stock-bond seesaw effect was evident. The bond market was under pressure due to the strength of the equity market and high capital prices [9]. - On July 18, policy expectations caused market fluctuations. The 10-year Treasury yield first rose and then returned to normal as the market interpreted the central bank's bond repurchase new regulations [9]. 3. Treasury and CDB Bond Yields - Most Treasury and CDB bond yields declined. As of July 18, the 1-year Treasury yield decreased by 2.12bp to 1.3490%, and the 10-year decreased by 0.01bp to 1.6652%. The 1-year CDB bond yield decreased by 1.57bp to 1.4789%, and the 10-year decreased by 0.05bp to 1.7171% [3][10]. - The key term spreads of Treasury and CDB bonds generally widened. The 10Y - 1Y spread of Treasury bonds widened by 2.11bp to 31.62bp, and the 30Y - 10Y spread widened by 1.45bp to 22.33bp. The 10Y - 1Y spread of CDB bonds widened by 1.52bp to 23.82bp, and the 30Y - 10Y spread narrowed by 0.20bp to 31.00bp [3][14][15]. 4. Liquidity Tracking 4.1 Funding: Central Bank Net Injection, Slight Increase in Funding Rate Center - From July 14 to July 18, the central bank's open market operations had a net injection of 12,011.00 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 17,268.00 billion yuan of reverse repurchases, with 4,257.00 billion yuan maturing. The MLF had a net withdrawal of 1,000.00 billion yuan. Next week, 17,268.00 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, with a larger maturity volume than the previous week [16][17]. - Due to the tax period, funding prices increased. R001 rose by 8.43bp to 1.4881%, R007 rose by 1.21bp to 1.5329%, and DR007 rose by 2.78bp to 1.5223%, remaining higher than the OMO7D rate. The R007 - DR007 spread narrowed, indicating a缓解 of the funding stratification phenomenon [17]. - The FR007S5Y - FR007S1Y term spread turned positive for the first time this year, suggesting a缓解 of the market's expectation of medium - and long - term interest rate cuts [17]. 4.2 Bond Supply: Total Issuance and Net Financing Decreased - From July 14 to July 18, the total issuance of interest - rate bonds decreased, and the net financing amount decreased compared to the previous week. The total issuance scale was 7,078.43 billion yuan, a decrease of 2,139.07 billion yuan from the previous week. The total repayment scale was 5,597.60 billion yuan, an increase of 2,249.89 billion yuan from the previous week. The net financing scale was 1,480.83 billion yuan, a decrease of 4,388.96 billion yuan from the previous week [3][35]. - The issuance scale of government bonds decreased, and the net financing amount decreased. Treasury bond net financing was 581.50 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,349.90 billion yuan from the previous week, while local government bond net financing was 1,504.99 billion yuan, an increase of 402.70 billion yuan from the previous week [3][36][37]. - The issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased, the net financing amount increased, and the issuance interest rate rose. The total issuance was 9,471.80 billion yuan, an increase of 5,207.50 billion yuan from the previous week. The net financing amount was 1,443.70 billion yuan, an increase of 2,284.60 billion yuan from the previous week [38]. 5. Global Asset Class Observation - The US dollar index continued to rise, and precious metals and crude oil prices all declined. The long - term US Treasury yield increased, and the term spread widened. The 10Y/30Y yields increased by 1/4bp to 4.44%/5.00% respectively, and the 10Y - 2Y spread widened by 3bp to 56bp [3][50]. - The US dollar index rose 0.62% to 98.4712, and the US dollar - RMB central parity rate slightly increased by 0.03% to 7.1498. Gold fell 0.31% to 3,349.40 US dollars per ounce, silver fell 1.75% to 38.25 US dollars per ounce, WTI crude oil fell 1.95% to 67.33 US dollars per barrel, and Brent crude oil fell 1.98% to 69.23 US dollars per barrel [3][50][55]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market fluctuated at a high level this week, with a lot of incremental information on the news front. The domestic economy still faces downward pressure, and the fundamental factors that the bond market relies on have not yet shown an inflection point. As the 10 - year treasury bond yield approaches 1.7%, the opportunities in the bond market outweigh the risks [1][2][3]. - Although the strong stock market suppresses the sentiment of the bond market, the term spread of the 30 - year treasury bond and the variety spread of the 20 - year CDB bond are still low, with limited spread protection [2][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review Super - long Bond Review - The bond market fluctuated at a high level this week. The economic data in June and the second quarter showed strong production but weak domestic demand. The financial data in June showed positive changes, the capital market tightened, the central bank conducted a 1.4 - trillion buy - out repurchase operation with a net injection of 200 billion yuan, and the strong equity market suppressed the bond market sentiment [1][4][12]. - Last week, the trading activity of super - long bonds increased slightly, and both the term spread and variety spread widened [1][4][12]. Super - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bond**: As of July 18, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 22BP, at a relatively low historical level. The domestic economy in June showed resilience but weak domestic demand. The estimated GDP growth rate in June was about 5.2%, up 0.1% from May, still higher than the annual target. However, the growth rates of social consumption and investment declined significantly. There is still a deflation risk. The bond market opportunities outweigh the risks, but the term spread protection is limited [2][13]. - **20 - year CDB Bond**: As of July 18, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 4BP, at an extremely low historical level. Similar to the 30 - year treasury bond situation, the bond market opportunities outweigh the risks, but the variety spread protection is limited [3][14]. Super - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding super - long bonds exceeded 22.2 trillion. As of June 30, the total amount of super - long bonds with a remaining maturity of over 14 years was 22.2528 trillion, accounting for 14.5% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties [15]. - By variety, treasury bonds accounted for 26.3%, local government bonds 67.5%, etc. By remaining maturity, the 30 - year variety accounted for the highest proportion [15]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (July 7 - 11, 2025), the issuance volume of super - long bonds increased significantly, reaching 231.4 billion yuan. By variety, treasury bonds were 123 billion yuan, local government bonds 80.7 billion yuan, etc. By term, the 30 - year issuance was 125.8 billion yuan [20]. This Week's Scheduled Issuance - The announced issuance plan for this week is 279.7 billion yuan in total. By variety, super - long treasury bonds are 83 billion yuan, super - long local government bonds 181 billion yuan, etc [25]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of super - long bonds was quite active. The trading volume was 1.2068 trillion yuan, accounting for 13.7% of the total bond trading volume. The trading activity increased slightly compared with the previous week [28]. Yield - The bond market fluctuated at a high level this week. The yields of different - term super - long bonds of various varieties changed to different degrees. For example, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year treasury bonds changed by 0BP, - 1BP, 1BP, and - 1BP respectively to 1.80%, 1.90%, 1.89%, and 1.95% [39]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of super - long bonds widened, but the absolute level was low. The spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 22BP, up 1BP from the previous week, at the 6% quantile since 2010 [50]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of super - long bonds widened, with a low absolute level. The spreads between the 20 - year CDB bond and treasury bond, and between the 20 - year railway bond and treasury bond were 4BP and 7BP respectively, both up 1BP from the previous week, at the 6% and 4% quantiles since 2010 [51]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract TL2509 of the 30 - year treasury bond futures closed at 120.46 yuan, a decrease of 0.12%. The total trading volume was 438,300 lots (a decrease of 52,833 lots), and the open interest was 150,000 lots (a decrease of 1,106 lots), with both trading volume and open interest decreasing slightly [58].

债 券 研 究 相关研究 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 栾强 A0230524110003 luanqiang@swsresearch.com 研究支持 王哲一 A0230123100001 wangzy@swsresearch.com 联系人 王哲一 (8621)23297818× wangzy@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 2025 年 07 月 20 日 债市短期与中期矛盾的关注点 策 略 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 债 券 证 券 研 究 报 告 - ⚫ 资金和机构行为仍是债市短期主要矛盾。 ◼ 资金面：本周（2025/7/14-2025/7/18）无论从表态、资金投放以及资金 价格走势等多重视角来看，央行呵护债市态度较为明确且及时，本周债市 虽受税期扰动、超长期限特别国债发飞、股债跷跷板等多重不利因素影响， 但债市并未出现明显调整。 ◼ 机构行为：由于 2025Q1 债市出现调整，固收类产品今年累积利润较薄， 即使债市出现小幅波动，投资者也对此较为敏感，当前债市向下空 ...

Economic Overview - In June, the economy showed weak demand but strong production, with GDP growth at 5.3% for the first half of the year, easing pressure to achieve a full-year target of 5%[2] - Domestic demand is under significant pressure, with real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing investments continuing to decline, while consumption growth has also slowed[5] - Export growth has increased due to a "rush to export" effect, providing some support to the economy[2] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment growth for January to June was 2.8%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous value, with real estate investment down 11.2%[9] - Retail sales growth in June was 4.8%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to reduced subsidy effects and a decline in dining consumption[16] - Real estate sales growth continued to decline, with a 3.5% drop in sales and a 6.2% decrease in funding sources[12] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank's monetary policy emphasizes "stabilizing prices," with liquidity expected to remain balanced and slightly loose[3] - The average interbank repo rates have decreased, with DR007 fluctuating within 10 basis points above the policy rate[3] - The central bank conducted a 1.4 trillion yuan reverse repo operation in mid-July, indicating a loose monetary stance[4] Bond Market Strategy - Bond yields have slightly adjusted due to rising stock markets and marginal increases in funding rates, but rates are unlikely to rise significantly without improvements in the economic fundamentals[4] - The bond market is expected to experience low volatility, with strategies focusing on high-entry points for bond purchases[6] Inflation and Price Trends - CPI growth turned positive in June at 0.1%, driven by rising industrial consumer goods prices, particularly oil[46] - PPI continued to decline, with a year-on-year drop of 3.6%, influenced by falling energy prices and pressures on export prices[52]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance and outlook of fixed income products in the context of the bond market, highlighting the stability of short-term interest rates and the potential for credit bonds to outperform interest rate bonds in the near future [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Review of Fixed Income Product Returns - In the past month, the bond market experienced low volatility with positive returns across various fixed income products. The leading performance was observed in rights-embedded bond funds, followed by medium to long-term bond funds [3][8]. - As of July 17, the returns for different products over the past month were: rights-embedded bond funds at 0.89% (previously 0.54%), medium-term bond funds at 0.22% (previously 0.31%), short-term bond funds at 0.19% (unchanged), high-grade interbank certificates of deposit at 0.17% (previously 0.15%), and cash management products at 0.11% (unchanged) [3][8]. Bond Market Review - The bond market has shown low volatility with mixed performance between short and long-term bonds. The market sentiment improved due to "anti-involution" policies and the delayed imposition of tariffs by the U.S., which bolstered optimistic expectations [10][11]. - The liquidity in the banking sector was relatively relaxed, with the central bank's actions leading to a slight decrease in short-term interest rates. The one-year AAA interbank certificate of deposit rate fell to 1.63% [11][15]. Industry Events Tracking - On July 11, the National Financial Supervision Administration released the "Financial Institutions Product Suitability Management Measures," effective from February 1, 2026, aimed at enhancing consumer protection and regulating financial institutions' suitability management [37]. Outlook for the Bond Market - Short-term expectations indicate stable interbank certificate of deposit rates, while the long-term outlook remains bullish for bonds, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to fluctuate between 1.5% and 1.8% [1][31]. - Credit bonds are anticipated to perform better than interest rate bonds, with a focus on maintaining a balanced duration strategy and considering high-grade long-term credit bonds for potential gains [1][40]. Fixed Income Product Strategy and Recommendations - For investors needing liquidity management, maintaining cash-like products is advisable, while for conservative investors, holding pure bond products with a potential extension of duration is recommended [40][41]. - For more aggressive investors, the article suggests considering fixed income plus products that include convertible bonds and equity assets, with strategies such as quantitative neutral, index enhancement, and multi-asset approaches [42].

央行公告称，7月17日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了4505亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率为 1.4%，投标量4505亿元，中标量4505亿元。数据显示，当日900亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投 放3605亿元。资金面整体平衡，存款类机构隔夜质押式回购利率小幅下行，目前位于1.46%位置。七天 质押式回购利率则下行不足1bp，现位于1.52%位置。长期资金方面，全国和主要股份制银行一年期同 业存单最新成交在1.62%附近，较上日基本持平。税期走款接近尾声，央行逆回购投放呵护，预计税期 过后，流动性有望回归平稳偏宽局面。 【市场表现】 【操作建议】 国债期货收盘多数上涨，30年期主力合约跌0.02%报120.730元，10年期主力合约涨0.02%报108.885元， 5年期主力合约涨0.02%报106.045元，2年期主力合约涨0.01%报102.440元。银行间主要利率债收益率涨 跌不一。截至17：00，30年期国债"25超长特别国债02"收益率持平于1.8820%，10年期国开债"25国开 10"收益率持平于1.7350%，10年期国债"25附息国债11"收益率上行0.1bp报1.6600%，2年期国债 ...

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on July 17, with a fixed rate and quantity tendering of 450.5 billion yuan, at an interest rate of 1.4%, with a total bid and winning amount of 450.5 billion yuan. The net injection for the day was calculated to be 360.5 billion yuan after accounting for 90 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1]. Group 2: Funding Conditions - The overall funding situation remains balanced, with the overnight pledged repo rate for deposit-taking institutions slightly declining to 1.46%. The 7-day pledged repo rate has decreased by less than 1 basis point, currently at 1.52%. In the U.S., the latest overnight financing rate stands at 4.37% [3]. Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.62%, showing little change from the previous day [6]. Group 4: Bond Market - The yields on major interbank bonds have shown mixed movements. The closing prices for government bond futures indicate a slight increase for most maturities, with the 10-year and 5-year contracts rising by 0.02%, while the 30-year contract fell by 0.02% [11]. Group 5: Government Bond Issuance - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue several government bonds on July 24, including a 30-year bond of 83 billion yuan, a new 1-year bond of 124 billion yuan, and a 5-year bond of 108 billion yuan [12]. Group 6: Climate Bonds - A report from the Climate Bonds Initiative indicates that Hong Kong's issuance of green, social, and sustainable development bonds, as well as sustainability-linked bonds, is expected to exceed 43.1 billion USD in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.2% and accounting for 45% of the Asian international GSS+ bond market [12]. Group 7: Corporate Developments - Postal Savings Bank has invested 10 billion yuan to establish China Post Investment, completing the AIC layout for the six major state-owned banks [17]. - China Construction Bank Financial Leasing plans to issue 2 billion yuan in financial bonds, with an option for an additional 500 million yuan in oversubscription [17]. - Longfor Group's main task for the second half of the year remains focused on inventory reduction [17].