Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is gaining attention due to the deep adjustments in the global economic landscape and the shift in major central banks' monetary policies, with rising debt expectations providing solid support for gold and silver prices, highlighting their safe-haven and anti-inflation properties in the current environment [1] Monetary Policy Shift - The direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a core variable affecting global asset prices. Current complex economic data in the U.S. shows manufacturing PMI below the growth line for several months, while the job market shows signs of volatility. Inflation, although down from its peak, remains sticky, reinforcing market expectations for future rate cuts and a "technical expansion" of the balance sheet [2] - The Federal Reserve plans to end balance sheet reduction by December 2025 and initiate a monthly "Reserve Management Purchase" plan of approximately $40 billion to address liquidity pressures in April 2026, interpreted by the market as a signal of easing [2] Fiscal Expansion and Debt Growth - Global trends toward fiscal expansion support precious metals. The U.S. government debt ceiling has been raised again, with significant projected deficits due to the "big beautiful" plan from the Trump administration, leading to concerns about the long-term value of the dollar [3] - The European Union is loosening fiscal discipline in response to geopolitical pressures, allowing member states to increase defense spending, while the UK plans to increase investments despite rising net debt [3] Correlation with Sovereign Debt - Japan's recent announcement of an economic stimulus plan exceeding 21 trillion yen, partially funded by new bonds, indicates a strong positive correlation between gold prices and the total outstanding debt of major economies like the U.S., EU, UK, and Japan. The expansion of sovereign debt erodes currency purchasing power, enhancing gold's value as a safe-haven asset [4] Multi-layered Support for Precious Metals - In addition to macroeconomic factors, other elements provide multi-layered support for precious metal prices. Central banks have been increasing gold reserves since 2023, reflecting diversification needs and long-term strategic considerations for a diversified international monetary system [5] - Geopolitical risks, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East tensions, continue to create uncertainty, potentially driving safe-haven buying [5] - Industrial demand for silver is expected to grow due to advancements in green technology and AI, with the World Silver Association predicting a widening supply-demand gap by 2026, enhancing price elasticity [5] Market Outlook - Overall, the precious metals market is expected to see upward price movement supported by global debt expansion, a shift toward monetary easing, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical uncertainties, leading to a scenario where prices are likely to rise but difficult to fall [6]

本周全球金融市场的焦点集中在两大事件：乌克兰和谈取得突破性进展、以及美国将公布的重磅经济数据（非农就业 + 通胀）。这两股力量共同推动黄金 在高位急转直下，也让投资者在年末前的最后关键交易周保持高度警惕。 不过，谈判仍存在较大不确定性，尤其是领土问题的敏感性仍未解决。泽连斯基强调，"目前没有理想的和平方案"，美国希望快速推动停火，但乌克兰更在 意"和平的质量"。这意味着地缘风险短期降温，但中长期仍存在反复可能，为黄金提供下方支撑。 与此同时，市场迅速将目光转向美国即将公布的一系列关键经济数据。尤其是因政府停摆而延迟的 10 月与 11 月非农就业报告，本次统计期受技术性因素影 响，可能出现较大"噪音"，让预测区间极为分散。市场预期 10 月就业可能减少 1 万，而 11 月或小幅回升至增加 5 万，但最乐观估计可达 12.7 万，悲观则 可能为负值。失业率则受停摆统计影响，预计短暂升至 4.6%–4.7% 区间。 ▲ATFX图 这份数据不仅决定美元短线方向，更可能影响美联储 2026 年政策路径。目前 CME FedWatch 显示，市场押注 2026 年1 月降息概率高达75.6%，明显高于美 联储自身预测 ...

金银之后，铂金接棒暴涨。12月15日，国内期货市场铂、钯主力合约大涨。截至下午收盘，铂2606合约涨停，报涨7%，这是该品种上市以来首次涨停， 成交量大幅攀升至4.18万手。此外，钯期货主力合约也一度大涨超5%，收盘涨4.73%，报407.6元/克。 推荐您关注！欢迎↓↓ 事实上，今年以来，铂钯低调发力，Wind数据显示，NYMEX铂今年以来累计涨幅已达97%，NYMEX钯的涨幅也超过73%。远超同时期COMEX黄金期货 的涨幅65%。 国泰君安期货市场分析师陈骏昊认为，铂钯的上涨驱动因素有三个方面。一是宏观、地缘情绪支撑。一方面美联储在降息靴子落地后，整体宽松预期仍未 完全扭转；另一方面，地缘风险持续，在金银价格强势表现后，铂族金属获得一定补涨动能。二是现货矛盾持续，伦敦铂钯租借利率再度回升，现货流动 性趋紧，钯金ETF持仓边际增速持续上行，投资需求进一步收紧现货流通，强化价格上涨动能。三是基差、价差高位，目前铂钯基差和内外价差均处于高 位区间，期现套利及跨境套利资金持续增持现货库存，推升现货报价走高，进而传导至期货市场。 铂钯价格有望持续震荡上行 展望后市，市场观点普遍认为，铂钯价格均有上涨空间。 世界铂 ...

| 程资咨询业务资格: | ITG 国贸期货 | 证监许可【2012】31号 | | --- | --- | --- | | 国贸商品指数 | 国贸商品指数日报 | | | ITE C | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 从业资格号: F3014717 2025/12/16 Z0013223 宏观金融中心 投资咨询号: | | | | (12月15日),国内商品期市收盘涨跌参半,新能源材料涨幅居前,多晶硅涨3.61%;航运期货 | | | | 全部上涨,集运指数(欧线)涨3.30%;黑色系多数上涨,焦煤涨3.16%;贵金属全部上涨,沪金涨 | | | | 1. 92%;非金属建材全部上涨,PVC涨1. 60%;化工品多数上涨,丁二烯橡胶涨1.54%;能源品多数上 涨,燃油涨1.50%;农副产品多数上涨,鸡蛋涨1.23%;基本金属跌幅居前,国际铜跌1.45%;油脂油 | | | | 料全部下跌,棕榈油跌0.96%。 | | | | 热评:周一国内商品涨跌参半,其中,工业品走势分化,农产品涨跌参半。具体来看; | | | | (1) 黑色系多数上涨。近期钢材供需双弱,期钢盘面维持偏弱运行。受全国寒潮影响,气温大幅 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 陈骏昊 国泰君安期货市场分析师 Z0021546 今日铂族金属表现活跃，在前期黄金和白银相继上涨之后，铂钯"异军突起"，今日领涨盘面。铂金主力 合约涨停，收报482.40元/克，钯金主力合约大涨超4%，收报407.60元/克。那么铂钯的上涨驱动有哪 些？两者与黄金走势的关联性有多大？ 基本面分析： 1．宏观、地缘情绪支撑：一方面美联储在降息靴子落地后，整体宽松预期仍未完全扭转；另一方面， 地缘风险持续，在金银价格强势表现后，铂族金属获得一定补涨动能。 2．现货矛盾持续：伦敦铂钯租借利率再度回升，现货流动性趋紧，钯金ETF持仓边际增速持续上行， 投资需求进一步收紧现货流通，强化价格上涨动能。 属板块情绪较强。 但同时，黄金和铂钯的差异性也较为明显，主要在于根本属性不同。从金融属性来看，黄金＞铂＞钯， 而从工业属性来看正好相反，钯＞铂＞黄金。 一般来说，当投资者寻求避险和确定性时，可关注黄金"避险之王"的作用，表现通常更稳健；当经济复 苏或工业需求繁荣时，可关注铂、钯强劲的工业需求表现。在进行资产配置时，可将铂钯作为对黄金投 资的补充，增强组合弹性 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 2025年12月15日，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一。铂涨7%，钯涨超4%，多晶硅、集运欧线、焦煤涨超 3%，烧碱、氧化铝涨近3%；跌幅方面，苹果跌超2%，国际铜、沪铝、沪铜、菜油跌超1%。 | 序号 | 合约名称 | 是新 | 现手 | 20-10 | 荣价 | 盛德米十 | 外汇 | 英语 | 成交量 | 漆蛋 | 持位置 | 日增仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ਹ | 第2606 W | 482.40 | 1 | 482.40 | | 7.00% | 456 | --- | 41832 31.55 | | 17844 | 6674 | | 2 | 2606 W | 407.60 | 1 | 407.40 | 407.45 | 4.73% | T | 1 | 30669 18.40 | | 5562 | 2099 | | 3 | 多品硅2605 M | 58030 | 7 | 58025 | 58030 | ...

12月15日，上周五，多位美联储官员密集表态、立场出现明显分歧，触发市场获利了结与再定价，金价 在冲高后快速回落，单日波动近100美元；但全周来看，价格仍录得周线收阳。本周市场焦点转向12月 16日公布的美国非农就业报告。该报告将纳入因政府停摆而延迟发布的10月与11月数据，有望为经济与 就业提供更清晰的信号。除此之外，仍需持续关注美联储官员讲话的节奏与措辞变化，以把握政策预期 与利率路径的最新动向。 周一（12月15日）近期内部"鹰鸽大乱斗"，让市场此前对宽松政策的一边倒预期出现动摇，这削弱了金 价短期继续暴力拉升的基础。不过尽管政策预期摇摆，但多个地缘风险事件持续发酵，还是为黄金提供 了稳固的避险支撑。 首先。俄乌局势悬而未决，和谈进程停滞，美国对乌克兰未签署和平方案表示"失望"，欧盟决定无限期 冻结俄罗斯央行资产，冲突长期化风险上升。其次，泰柬边境冲突尚无停火安排；澳大利亚悉尼发生严 重恐怖袭击。这些事件共同维持了市场的避险资金流。因此，短线来看，黄金依然是更加偏多一些。 从技术上来看，今日开盘后黄金震荡再回弹，短线上方需要关注4340-30一带的争夺，如果此位有承 压，那么周初黄金或陷入震荡修整，或等 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver has once again become a market focus, with significant price increases driven by multiple factors including macroeconomic shifts, industrial demand, supply shortages, capital inflows, and value reassessment [1][4]. Group 1: Price Performance - As of December 12, COMEX silver is priced at $64.25 [2]. - Year-to-date, both London spot silver and COMEX silver futures have seen price increases exceeding 110% [3]. Group 2: Key Drivers - **Monetary Policy**: The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have weakened the dollar and reduced holding costs, directly igniting precious metal pricing [5]. - **Industrial Demand**: Silver consumption in photovoltaic applications accounts for 55%, while demand from AI servers has increased by 30%, and electric vehicles are consuming several times more silver [6]. - **Supply-Demand Gap**: Global exchange inventories are at a ten-year low, sufficient for only 1.2 months of consumption, leading to heightened demand for silver [7]. - **Capital Inflows**: ETFs have increased their holdings by 500 tons over six months, with silver's market capitalization being only one-tenth that of gold, resulting in amplified volatility due to short covering [8]. - **Value Reassessment**: The gold price has reached new highs, the gold-silver ratio is returning to normal, and demand from Indian festivals is quickly realizing the potential for price increases [9]. Group 3: Market Analysis - The interplay of monetary easing, industrial revolution, mine production cuts, ETF-driven supply constraints, and emotional responses to the gold-silver ratio has led to a doubling of silver prices this year [9].

12月11日，周四，亚市早盘，现货黄金开盘就开始小幅度连续上涨接近20美金，"貌似"要延续昨天凌晨 3，4点的涨势，但随后迎来回吐，目前震荡微跌。昨日12月10日（星期三），黄金早盘上涨4219附近受 阻开始震荡下跌，到欧盘跌至4187附近后开始震荡。凌晨美联储利率决议影响，黄金呈现先涨后跌再上 涨的走势，最低下探4182，最高触及4239附近，创近三个交易日新高，最终收报4228美元/盎司，单日 涨幅约0.5%，日线收出一根阳线。 基本消息面： 美联储如期降息，宽松环境支撑金价：北京时间12月11日凌晨3点，美联储公布2025年最后一次利率决 议，如期宣布降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.50%-3.75%，年内完成"三连降"且累计 降息75个基点，这与市场此前87%的降息预期相契合。尽管此次决议中有3名委员投出反对票，且点阵 图显示2026年仅计划降息1次，释放出一定"鹰派降息"信号，但鲍威尔在新闻发布会中未释放更强鹰派 表述。受此影响，美元指数快速下挫至98.64，美债收益率也集体下行，持有黄金的机会成本进一步降 低，为金价提供强力支撑。 现货白银大幅上涨，截止目前盘中触及每盎62.86美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing significant price increases, with both spot and futures prices reaching new highs due to rising demand and various economic factors [1][3][4]. Price Movement - As of December 10, the spot price of silver in London reached $61.244 per ounce, marking an increase of nearly 1% [1]. - On December 9, silver prices surged over 4%, breaking the important $60 per ounce threshold for the first time [3]. - Year-to-date, silver prices have risen by approximately 110% [3]. Demand Drivers - Increased demand for precious metals is attributed to rising debt levels in major Western economies and the associated risks of currency devaluation [3]. - Silver's smaller market size compared to gold makes it more sensitive to fluctuations in the dollar, leading to higher volatility [3]. Supply and Economic Factors - Continuous supply tightness, declining global inventories, and expectations of an upcoming interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve are supporting silver prices [4][6]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is estimated at 87.6% [5]. Industrial Demand - Silver's industrial applications, particularly in photovoltaic technology and AI computing, are contributing to strong demand [5]. - The increasing share of silver used in solar panels and AI servers is creating robust industrial demand [5]. Market Strategy - Analysts suggest maintaining long positions in silver futures, while cautioning about the risks associated with high volatility [6]. - Future price movements may experience fluctuations as supply-demand dynamics begin to stabilize [6].