市场快讯---原油跌停，化工大面积飘绿 2026年2月2日 数据来源：wind 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，不保证报告信息已做最新变更，也不保证分析师做出的任何建议不会发生任何变更。在任何情况下，报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不构 成所述期货品种买卖的出价或询价。在任何情况下，我公司不就报告中的任何内容对任何投资所做出任何形式的担保，投资者据此投资，投资风险自我承担。我公司可能发出与本报告意见不一致的其他报告，本报告反映分析师本人的意见 与结论，并不代表我公司的立场。未经我公司同意，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制或对本报告进行有悖原意的删节和修改。 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格 F03085283 交易咨询：Z0019267 联系方式：wuzhiqiao@greendh.com 格林大华 期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288号 2026年2月2日 数据来源：wind 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，不保证报告信息已做最新变更，也不保证分析师做出的任何建议不会发生任何变更。在任何情况下， ...

前面的制造危机、施压美联储，都是为了把黄金炒上去，现在选一个鹰派人物，就是为了收割。 期货公司观点 有没有感觉被特朗普算计了。 黄金这一波是谁炒起来的？是特朗普。 特朗普攻打委内瑞拉，利用格陵兰岛施压欧洲，叫嚣攻打伊朗，另外，还对美联储指手画脚，对美联储 主席鲍威尔持续施压，要求进行降息，对美联储官员起诉，一个劲的要安插自己人进入美联储。 种种的一切，都让黄金大涨，不夸张的说，全球都被特朗普钓成了翘嘴。 结果现在180度大转弯，特朗普把大家都忽悠了。在大家预测特朗普的下一任美联储人选将会执行他的 降息要求，保持低利率政策的时候，特朗普选了一个鹰派人物上台，告诉你们，我摊牌了，不装了，等 于告诉大家，以后不这么降息了，货币政策要改了。 广发期货： 当前数据显示美国就业和通胀持续放缓但部分领域在美联储降息提振下有所改善，尽管美联储未来在衡 量就业的通胀目标问题上仍有分歧短期趋于谨慎，但贸易摩擦和地缘风险的担忧驱动资金提前配置使金 价中长期上涨空间，在全球主流机构持续上调贵金属价格预测的情况下，部分机构投资者选择提前"抢 跑"配置贵金属，对价格形成支撑。市场或将更多受到美国经济数据对美联储政策预期影响和地缘局势 扰 ...

Group 1 - The oil market is experiencing a critical turning point due to rising geopolitical risks and supply expectation discrepancies, leading to increased investment in oil-themed ETFs, particularly the Penghua Oil ETF (159697), which has seen explosive growth in scale [1] - As of January 30, 2026, the Penghua Oil ETF's scale reached 1.661 billion yuan, a significant increase from 207 million yuan on December 31, 2025, representing a growth of over 700% [1] - The rapid expansion of the fund's scale is attributed to its quality attributes and the structural opportunities in the oil market, with a report from CICC suggesting that the first expected divergence in oil supply may be entering a verification phase [1] Group 2 - Geopolitical risks have become a key variable driving changes in the oil supply landscape, with recent developments in major oil-producing regions such as South America and the Middle East, including a military blockade on Venezuelan oil exports [2] - Venezuela's oil production fell to 830,000 barrels per day in December, a decrease of 130,000 barrels per day (13.5% decline), while oil exports dropped to 423,000 barrels per day, down by 180,000 barrels per day (30% decline) [2] - OPEC+ has seen a decline in its production increase execution rate, with the first quarter of 2026 set to officially pause production increases, as the actual output increase has significantly lagged behind planned targets [2] Group 3 - Investing directly in oil-related listed companies may pose challenges in stock selection, making the ETF a more efficient and diversified option for exposure to the entire industry chain [3] - The Penghua Oil ETF closely tracks the National Securities Oil and Gas Index (399439.SZ), with its top ten holdings including major companies like China National Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil, and Sinopec, collectively accounting for about 67% of the fund [3] - The ETF effectively captures the profit elasticity across the entire industry chain, covering upstream exploration, midstream transportation, and downstream refining, benefiting from rising oil prices [3]

Core Viewpoint - The significant drop in tin prices, with the main contract hitting a limit down of 11% to 392,650 yuan/ton, is primarily driven by market reactions to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, which has shifted market expectations towards a more hawkish stance [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Tin prices have experienced a sharp decline, influenced by external macroeconomic sentiments rather than fundamental changes in supply and demand [1] - The operating rate of smelters in Yunnan remains stable, while Jiangxi's refined tin output is still low due to a shortage of scrap tin materials [1] - The overall demand in January showed slight improvement compared to December, particularly in the photovoltaic welding strip sector, but the home appliance industry saw a year-on-year production decline of approximately 5% [1] Group 2: Supply and Inventory - Despite a rise in inventory levels due to increased imports of tin ingots, the overall inventory remains low and is not expected to exert significant pressure on prices [2] - The supply side has not shown significant changes, with smelter production remaining stable [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Newhu Futures commented that the price drop has triggered some replenishment behavior, indicating resilience in overall consumption, although a weakening trend is evident as the Spring Festival approaches [2] - Short-term fluctuations in tin prices are anticipated due to macroeconomic disturbances, but the medium to long-term outlook remains optimistic [2]

黄金上周涨的有多凶，最终跌的就有多猛，跌麻了。上周雪崩后，今天开局又是重挫跳水400美金，大 空之下，或再探4300的关口。 今天的走势 若持续回调，跌破了4400的关口。 那么继续延续回调，新低看向4300的关口支撑。 黄金1月收官，终结了单边的步伐，而且大空疯狂下砸，多头直接遭斩杀。进入技术性调整，下方可调 整空间，可回调看向4300的区域。当然了，上方再次反弹调整，可看向5100的区域。 上周极限跳水，跌穿4700后。 今天低开，没有停止空头的脚步。 回升遇阻后，再穿4600和4500的两道关口。 下方面临4400附近，开始有所减速。 此位置附近，看能否反弹调整。 上方可看向4580的位置，再次上破，那么继续看到4700的位置承压。 当然了，处在4580下方。 我们8位数黄金团队，实操十多年能够实现稳健的85%甚至更高的准确率。同时，最低的风险，实现盈 利最大化，平均每单看到6-20个点的比较大获利空间。 CME上调保证金，继续下重手。贵金属崩了，全球股市也是哀嚎不断。 操作方面，黄金疯狂跳水，雪崩不止，继续看承压调整，关注4580和4700做空的机会。此外，黄金下方 面临关键支撑，关注4400和430 ...

股票频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 2月2日，经济学家马光远表示，黄金是这个世界上最烂的投资，这个观点不会因为黄金涨到五千美元就 改变。原因在于黄金在历史上大多数情况表现不佳，而且长期处于熊市。 这一轮黄金上涨的过程中，理由不外乎去美元化、俄乌冲突等地缘风险、央行增持等等。这是任何时候 都可以解释的标准答案。但如果预测黄金未来会涨到10000美元，得告诉大家理由，以及每一个理由的 拉动力。比如，央行未来买黄金能拉动黄金上涨多少，美国打伊朗会上涨多少。但事实上，没有任何一 个机构这么去做，大家都才猜谜，大家都在算命。股市好的时候，遍地是股神，现在是黄金，到处都是 喊涨的算命先生。市场上现在关于黄金能涨到多少，就是算命，就是瞎蒙。 黄金是对未来不确定和风险的定价，而不是对未来收益或者产出的判断。巴菲特从来不碰黄金，就是因 为他认为未来的不确定是很难判断的。因此，不要懊恼错过了黄金白银（核心股）的行情，这本来就属 于不正常的走势，也是超过你的想象和认知的。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, crude oil prices rebounded due to escalating geopolitical risks. The unstable situation in Iran persisted over the weekend. Although Trump received a briefing on the military strike plan against Iran, no final decision has been made. Israel is on high alert for the possible US intervention in Iran. Iran has warned that if attacked, it will strike back at Israel and the US. The Iranian president showed a willingness to reconcile by meeting with the protest groups. If the US launches a military strike against Iran, oil prices may surge due to geopolitical risks. From a fundamental perspective, oil inventories increased this week. The Dubai month spread strengthened slightly after opening low, gasoline cracking margins strengthened while diesel cracking margins fluctuated, and European refinery profits weakened. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation, and the price center in Q1 is expected to be high and volatile. [6] 3. Summary of Relevant Sections Daily News - Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, stated that if the US initiates a war, it will be a regional conflict, not limited to one area. [3] - There was an explosion at Iran's southern Abbas Port, and Iranian media denied reports that a Revolutionary Guard commander was the target. [3] - US President Trump expressed hope that Iran would negotiate an acceptable agreement and said that Iran is having "serious" talks with the US. [4] - The US and Iran have signaled their willingness to negotiate, but experts believe there are significant differences on key issues, making the negotiation prospects difficult. The current tense situation may continue for some time. [4] - OPEC+ confirmed a production increase suspension in March and will hold the next meeting on March 1st. The previous daily production cut of 1.65 million barrels may be partially or fully restored based on market conditions. [4] Inventory - In the week of January 23rd, US crude oil exports increased by 901,000 barrels per day to 4.589 million barrels per day. [5] - US domestic crude oil production decreased by 36,000 barrels to 13.696 million barrels per day. [17] - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 2.295 million barrels to 424 million barrels, a decrease of 0.54%. [17] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.271 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.08% compared to the same period last year. [17] - US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 515,000 barrels to 415 million barrels, an increase of 0.12%. [17] - US commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 5.642 million barrels per day, a decrease of 805,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. [17] Weekly View - Crude oil prices rebounded this week due to geopolitical risks. If the US attacks Iran, oil prices may rise. Fundamentally, inventories increased, Dubai month spreads strengthened slightly after a low opening, gasoline cracking margins strengthened while diesel cracking margins fluctuated, and European refinery profits weakened. The price center in Q1 is expected to be high and volatile. [6]

Group 1 - Oil prices experienced fluctuations, with WTI March contract closing at $65.21 per barrel, a monthly increase of 14.51%, and Brent March contract at $70.69 per barrel, up 14.64% [2][41] - The overall trend in January showed a decline followed by a rebound, driven by geopolitical factors [2][41] - Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran remain a significant concern, with any diplomatic breakthroughs appearing unlikely [3][4] Group 2 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a surplus in the global oil market this year, with supply exceeding demand by 3.85 million barrels per day, approximately 4% of global demand [5] - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has adjusted its forecast for 2026 demand growth down by 90,000 barrels to 1.14 million barrels per day [5] - US crude oil production has decreased to 13.7 million barrels per day, with expectations of further declines in the coming weeks [5] Group 3 - Extreme weather events have significantly impacted US oil production, causing a temporary 15% drop in output and leading to price volatility [4] - The market is sensitive to supply disruptions, with risk premiums of $3 to $8 per barrel due to potential interruptions [4] - Current US crude oil inventories stand at 838.753 million barrels, with commercial stocks at 423.754 million barrels, reflecting a 2.08% increase year-on-year [5] Group 4 - The supply of high-sulfur fuel oil from Iran is expected to decrease, with January shipments estimated at 900,000 tons, down 300,000 tons month-on-month [7] - Demand for high-sulfur fuel oil in China is anticipated to increase significantly, with expected imports of 100,000 tons in January and 105,000 tons in February [7] - The geopolitical situation in Iran continues to influence oil supply dynamics, with recent disruptions affecting shipping volumes [8] Group 5 - The overall sentiment in the oil market is mixed, with geopolitical uncertainties providing some support for prices while high inventories limit upward movement [6][8] - The market is expected to remain volatile, with short-term fluctuations driven by geopolitical developments and supply-demand dynamics [6][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information is provided regarding the industry investment ratings in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - **Urea**: On January 30, the urea futures oscillated and pulled back, and the spot price remained stable. The supply is sufficient as domestic urea enterprises are operating at a high level. Industrial demand is average, while agricultural demand is picking up. It is expected that the urea market will fluctuate slightly before the Spring Festival. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 1760 - 1820 yuan/ton [1]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: In February, the supply - demand situation of pure benzene is expected to improve slightly, but due to high import pressure and port inventories, its price may follow the trend of oil prices and downstream styrene. Styrene's supply - demand is expected to turn loose in February. With high oil prices and weakening demand, the price of both is expected to face pressure. The strategy is to short lightly on a single - side basis and shrink the EB - BZ spread when it is high [2]. - **Natural Rubber**: The supply is contracting as some regions are moving towards reduced production and suspension of tapping. The cost support is strengthening due to rising overseas raw material prices. Demand is weakening as some enterprises are on holiday. The inventory in Qingdao is decreasing. It is recommended to try long positions [3]. - **Polyolefins (LLDPE & PP)**: Before the Spring Festival, far from the delivery month, the price is driven by macro factors and market sentiment. Fundamentally, supply and demand are both decreasing, and inventory is being depleted. In the short term, the price will maintain a strong - side oscillation, but the upward space is limited [7]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The inventory in the inland area is slightly decreasing, and the port inventory is also slightly decreasing. However, the weak MTO demand suppresses the price rebound. The key variables are the import volume from Iran and geopolitical factors [10]. - **Glass - Soda Ash**: Soda ash is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with a slight increase in inventory. It is expected to oscillate in a range before the Spring Festival. Glass has weak supply and demand, and the inventory is still at a high level compared to the same period last year. It is also expected to oscillate in a range before the Spring Festival [12]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: In the first quarter, the supply - demand of PX and PTA is expected to weaken. In February, PTA may face significant inventory accumulation. Ethylene glycol has a near - term weak and long - term strong supply - demand pattern. Short - fiber and bottle - chip also face weak supply - demand in February. Strategies for each product mainly involve light - position operations, observing spreads, and option trading [13]. - **Crude Oil**: In January, international oil prices were generally strong, but the rebound space is limited due to the weak supply - demand pattern. In February, the supply is expected to increase, and demand remains weak. The price may face a callback if geopolitical risks do not expand further [14]. - **LPG**: The price of LPG futures is decreasing. The inventory in ports is decreasing, and the downstream PDH operating rate is decreasing. The market situation needs to be further observed [17]. - **PVC - Caustic Soda**: Caustic soda's supply - demand imbalance persists, and the futures' rebound height is expected to be limited. PVC's supply is slowly increasing, demand is decreasing due to the festival, and the inventory is increasing. The price is supported by cost and market sentiment [20]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Urea - **Futures Prices**: On January 30, the closing prices of 01, 05, 09 contracts and the main contract decreased compared to January 29, with the main contract down 1.36% [1]. - **Futures Contract Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts changed, with the 01 - 05 spread down 6.67% and the 09 - 01 spread up 600.00% [1]. - **Main Force Positions**: The long and short positions of the top 20 decreased, with the long positions down 3.11% and the short positions down 6.58% [1]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of most upstream raw materials remained stable, with the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong down 0.46% [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices in different regions had slight changes, with the price in Shandong (small - particle) up 0.56% [1]. - **Supply - Demand**: The daily and weekly production of domestic urea increased, and the inventory in factories and ports changed. The production enterprises' order days increased [1]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent and WTI crude oil decreased slightly, and the prices of pure benzene - related products also changed. The pure benzene - naphtha spread decreased by 3.8% [2]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of styrene in the spot and futures markets decreased, and the EB - BZ spread decreased [2]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flows of downstream products such as phenol and aniline changed, with the EPS cash flow up 666.7% [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports increased [2]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: The operating rates of pure benzene and styrene industries and their downstream industries changed, with the domestic pure benzene operating rate up 0.9% [2]. Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex decreased, and the basis increased [3]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts changed, with the 9 - 1 spread down 13.49% [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production in Thailand, Indonesia, India, and China in December changed, and the operating rates of tire factories and the production and export of tires also changed [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory in bonded areas and the futures inventory in factories decreased [3]. Polyolefins (LLDPE & PP) - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 decreased on January 30 compared to January 29 [7]. - **Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts and varieties changed, with the LP05 spread up 6.15% [7]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot prices of LLDPE and PP decreased, and the basis of LLDPE increased [7]. - **Non - Standard Prices**: The prices of non - standard PE and PP products changed slightly [7]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of PE and PP devices and their downstream industries changed, with the PE device operating rate up 0.81% [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of PE and PP enterprises and the social inventory changed, with the PE enterprise inventory down 3.58% [7]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing prices of MA2605 and MA2609 decreased, and the MTO05盘面 increased by 19.38% [10]. - **External Prices**: The CFR China price of methanol decreased slightly [10]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly [10]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of upstream and downstream enterprises changed, with the overseas enterprise operating rate down 14.19% [10]. Glass - Soda Ash - **Glass Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices in different regions and the futures prices of glass decreased, and the basis increased [12]. - **Soda Ash Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices in different regions remained stable, and the futures prices of soda ash decreased, with the basis increasing [12]. - **Supply**: The operating rate of soda ash decreased, and the daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass changed slightly [12]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of glass factories decreased, and the inventory of soda ash factories increased slightly [12]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year changes in new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real estate improved to some extent [12]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: The prices of Brent and WTI crude oil and other upstream products changed, with the price of PX decreasing [13]. - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices of polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY increased, and the cash flows changed [13]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PX products changed, with the PX - naphtha spread down 1.7% [13]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of PTA increased, and the basis and processing fees changed [13]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of MEG decreased, and the basis and spreads changed [13]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: The operating rates of PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester industries changed, with the MEG comprehensive operating rate up 1.8% [13]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil changed, with the SC price up 3.40%. The spreads between different contracts and varieties also changed [14]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil increased, and the spreads between different contracts changed [14]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of refined oil products such as gasoline and diesel changed, with the US diesel crack spread up 15.10% [14]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PG2603, PG2604, and PG2605 decreased, and the spreads between different contracts changed [17]. - **External Prices**: The prices of FEI and CP swaps changed, with the FEI M1 contract down 0.98% [17]. - **Inventory**: The LPG refinery storage ratio increased slightly, and the port inventory decreased [17]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of upstream and downstream enterprises changed, with the downstream PDH operating rate down 2.46% [17]. PVC - Caustic Soda - **PVC and Caustic Soda Spot & Futures**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda futures and spot changed, with the price of PVC increasing [20]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes & Export Profits**: The FOB price of caustic soda decreased, and the export profit increased [20]. - **PVC Overseas Quotes & Export Profits**: The CFR price of PVC remained stable, and the FOB price of PVC increased, with the export profit increasing significantly [20]. - **Supply**: The operating rates of the chlor - alkali industry and the profits of different production methods changed, with the PVC total operating rate down 1.1% [20]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of caustic soda and PVC downstream industries changed, with the alumina industry operating rate down 2.1% [20]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of caustic soda and PVC changed, with the PVC total social inventory down 5.8% [20].

宝城期货原油早报-2026-02-02 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 弱势 | 弱势运行 | 地缘风险降温，原油弱势运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：弱势 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：弱势运行 核心逻辑：近期美国总统特朗普频繁释放地缘风险信号，格陵兰岛、加拿大或成为美国下一个夺取 和打击的目标。由于美伊释放和谈信号，地缘风险降温，原油溢价回吐并拖累国内能化板块偏多氛 围减弱，上周五夜盘国内外原油期货价 ...