Group 1 - Goldman Sachs predicts gold prices could reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025, supported by strong central bank purchases and emerging market demand [1][7] - Central banks are expected to maintain high gold purchase levels, with a notable example being 106 tons bought in February [1] - The probability of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months is assessed at 45%, which could lead to increased inflows into gold ETFs, potentially pushing prices to $3,880 [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts and a weakening dollar (with the dollar index at its lowest since 2022) are favorable for gold [3] - Geopolitical uncertainties, such as fluctuating tariffs and conflicts in the Middle East, are diminishing the credibility of the dollar and enhancing gold's safe-haven appeal [4] Group 3 - There is a significant divergence in institutional price targets for gold by the end of 2025, with Goldman Sachs at $3,700, UBS at $3,500, Citigroup at $2,500-$2,700, and Deutsche Bank at $3,400 [5] - Short-term volatility risks are present, as gold prices fell from $3,440 to $3,246 in June, with potential rebounds to the $3,200-$3,300 range if economic data exceeds expectations [5][6] Group 4 - The fundamental support for the $3,700 target remains intact, driven by central bank purchases, interest rate expectations, and geopolitical risks [7] - If the Federal Reserve cuts rates in September and central bank purchases remain above 80 tons per month, the likelihood of reaching the target increases significantly [8] Group 5 - Investors are advised to maintain a long-term allocation strategy, keeping gold assets to no more than 10% of total financial assets, and consider dollar-cost averaging into gold ETFs or bank gold bars [11] - Monitoring central bank gold purchase data and Federal Reserve policy developments is crucial, with September's rate cut being a key event [12] - Short-term strategies should focus on avoiding risks, as current gold prices are in a high volatility range of $3,240-$3,350, and non-professional investors should refrain from chasing price increases [13] Group 6 - The prediction of $3,700 by Goldman Sachs is a reasonable extrapolation based on current trends but is not guaranteed, requiring sustained central bank purchases, a Fed rate cut in September, and stable geopolitical conditions [14]

Core Viewpoint - The potential for gold prices to reach $3,500 per ounce by the end of 2025 is supported by various market dynamics, institutional forecasts, and influencing factors [1][17]. Group 1: Factors Supporting Price Increase - Major investment banks, including Goldman Sachs and UBS, have raised their forecasts multiple times, predicting gold prices could reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025, with a possibility of $4,000 by mid-2026 due to geopolitical risks, weakening dollar credit, and ongoing central bank purchases [1]. - The long-term upward cycle for gold remains intact, with significant support from central bank purchases, as global central banks have been net buyers for 16 consecutive years, adding 244 tons in Q1 2025 [2][5]. - Expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut could further weaken the dollar, which has already fallen to its lowest level since March 2022, potentially boosting gold prices [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Structural Demand - Ongoing geopolitical risks, such as the fragility of Middle East ceasefire agreements and fluctuating U.S.-China tariff negotiations, may reignite safe-haven demand for gold [4]. - The structural demand for gold is reinforced by the fact that 95% of central banks plan to continue increasing their gold reserves over the next 12 months [5]. Group 3: Risks to Price Increase - Technical analysis indicates that if gold prices fall below $3,165 per ounce, a technical correction of 10-15% could occur, potentially bringing prices down to the $2,500-$2,700 range [6]. - Current gold prices are detached from actual production costs, indicating a risk of valuation correction due to high price levels [7]. - If strong non-farm payroll data or inflation rebounds occur, the Fed may delay interest rate cuts, which could suppress gold prices [8]. Group 4: Institutional Divergence - There is a divergence among institutions regarding gold price forecasts, with Goldman Sachs predicting $3,700, UBS over $3,500, while Citigroup warns of a potential drop to the $2,500-$2,700 range [11]. Group 5: Investor Strategy Recommendations - Investors are advised to maintain rationality amid short-term volatility and avoid chasing price movements, as gold prices are highly sensitive to policy changes [12]. - A recommended allocation for gold in household financial assets is between 5-10%, with a strategy of dollar-cost averaging into gold ETFs to mitigate timing risks [12]. - Key policy anchors to monitor include the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and the political landscape surrounding U.S. elections [13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the rising value of gold due to a weakening dollar, increasing uncertainty around U.S. trade agreements, and heightened expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3] - Gold prices reached a three-day high of 3357.88, driven by global economic uncertainties and the market's anticipation of at least two rate cuts by 2025 [1] - The upcoming U.S. employment report is expected to influence U.S. Treasury yields, with potential implications for gold prices [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates a bullish short-term trend for gold, with MACD showing a bottom divergence and prices moving above previous resistance levels [3] - The suggested trading strategy includes buying gold on dips around the 3330-3335 range, with a stop loss at 3327 and a target of 3350-3360 [4] - Market participants are advised to monitor geopolitical risks that may drive safe-haven demand for gold [3]

华联期货分析称，供应端周内产量小幅降低，主要是有新增装置加入检修，不过总体供应仍偏高位。需 求端下游制品开工率周环比继续走低，主要是管型材硬制品开工季节性走弱，企业订单偏弱，宏观层面 房地产仍拖累终端需求。出口方面受印度雨季影响，签单承压。库存端上游去库社库累库。成本端电石 价格弱势，乙烯持稳，整体估值驱动仍不足。短线黑色建材类板块再度下跌，V盘面跟随下行。操作上 激进型前期少量多单谨慎持有，2509合约支撑参考4800附近。 目前来看，PVC行情呈现震荡下行走势，盘面表现偏弱。对于PVC后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 冠通期货指出，中东地缘风险急剧降温，原油价格大幅下跌，不过煤炭价格近期因山西省安全生产政策 等低位反弹，印度PVC BIS政策再次延期6个月，PVC现货价格涨后成交再度转弱，预计PVC近期低位 震荡。 7月1日，国内期市能化板块大面积飘绿。其中，PVC期货主力合约开盘报4885.00元/吨，今日盘中低位 震荡运行；截至发稿，PVC主力最高触及4888.00元，下方探低4810.00元，跌幅达2.19%附近。 宁证期货表示，PVC生产企业检修规模环比增加，PVC供应仍维持高位，利润 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock market sentiment is warm, and the bond market continues to fluctuate. For stock index futures, sentiment is positive with healthy long - short position changes; for stock index options, a covered defense strategy is recommended; for treasury bond futures, the bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: IF, IH, IC, and IM's current - month basis, inter - period spreads, and positions changed. The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated higher on Monday, with small - cap sentiment remaining active. Large - cap stocks retreated after capital congestion, and funds flowed to small - cap stocks. IM saw healthy long - short position changes, with a significant decrease in positions and wider intraday discounts [7]. - **Logic**: Geopolitical risks eased, the tariff deadline was postponed, and the market shifted its focus to internal profit improvement as the interim report announcements approached. - **Operation Suggestion**: Continue to allocate long IM contracts [7]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating upward 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **Market Conditions**: The equity market oscillated upward with sectoral divergence. Although sentiment indicators rose with the underlying assets, the trading volume in the options market declined significantly, and trading liquidity was lower than expected [7]. - **Logic**: In a low - liquidity derivatives market, sentiment indicators showed synchronicity but no guiding effect. Implied volatility only corresponded to daily market fluctuations, and all varieties showed a decline in volatility in the morning. - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a covered defense strategy [7]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Conditions**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. T, TF, TS, and TL's main contracts changed by - 0.16%, - 0.10%, - 0.05%, and - 0.43% respectively. Trading volume, positions, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and basis all had corresponding changes [3][8][9]. - **Logic**: The central bank's second - quarter policy statement was positive, the end - of - month capital tightened, the June PMI was better than expected, and the stock - bond seesaw effect was evident. At the beginning of the month, the capital may seasonally loosen, but the central bank may be cautious in liquidity injection, and the supply of new local bonds in July may remain high [3][9][10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: For trend strategies, maintain an oscillating view; for hedging strategies, focus on short - hedging at low basis levels; for basis strategies, appropriately focus on basis widening; for curve strategies, steepening the curve in the medium term has higher odds [10]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating 3.2 Economic Calendar - The official manufacturing PMI in China in June was 49.7, better than the previous value of 49.5. The US will release the June ISM manufacturing index on July 1st, the June unemployment rate and non - farm payrolls change on July 3rd [11]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Domestic Bond Market**: As of the end of May, overseas institutions' custodial balance in the Chinese bond market was 4.4 trillion yuan, accounting for 2.3% of the total. In the inter - bank bond market, the balance was 4.3 trillion yuan. Overseas institutions held 2.1 trillion yuan of treasury bonds, 1.2 trillion yuan of negotiable certificates of deposit, and 0.8 trillion yuan of policy - bank bonds [11]. - **Overseas Macroeconomy**: The US Senate procedurally voted to pass the "Great Beauty" tax and spending bill pushed by President Trump. The bill is estimated to increase the US federal government's debt by about $3.8 trillion in the next 10 years [12]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data on stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided text.

能源化工日报 2025-07-01 原油 能源化工组 2025/7/1 原油早评 行情方面：WTI 主力原油期货收跌 0.10 美元，跌幅 0.15%，报 64.97 美元；布伦特主力原油期 货收涨 0.32 美元，涨幅 0.48%，报 67.63 美元；INE 主力原油期货收跌 2.40 元，跌幅 0.48%， 报 498.3 元。 数据方面：中国原油周度数据出炉，原油到港库存去库 0.65 百万桶至 208.07 百万桶，环比 去库 0.31%；汽油商业库存累库 0.68 百万桶至 85.97 百万桶，环比累库 0.79%；柴油商业库 存累库 0.10 百万桶至 98.68 百万桶，环比累库 0.10%；总成品油商业库存累库 0.78 百万桶 至 184.65 百万桶，环比累库 0.42%。 刘洁文 甲醇、尿素分析师 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 我们认为当前地缘风险已经逐步释放，油价已经极度偏离宏观与基本面指引。伊朗已展现出缓 解状态，但油价单日跌幅过大，我们认为当前油价已经来到合理区间，空单仍可持有但已不宜 追空。 ...

Group 1 - Geopolitical risks are shifting market focus back to fundamental factors, with OPEC+ potentially increasing production in August and developments in US "reciprocal tariffs" being key influences on future oil prices [1] - As of June 30, WTI crude oil futures fell by 0.52% to $65.18 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures decreased by 0.25% to $66.63 per barrel, reversing gains made during the Israel-Iran conflict [1] - The conflict between Israel and Iran, which included airstrikes and threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, initially caused Brent prices to spike to around $80 per barrel before dropping significantly after a ceasefire announcement [1] Group 2 - Analysts from Shenwan Hongyuan Futures noted that a peace agreement between Israel and Iran led to a significant drop in oil prices, with future price movements dependent on geopolitical negotiations, OPEC+ production rates, and tariff discussions [2] - The US is entering a new phase of high shale oil production, with the EIA projecting an increase of 400,000 barrels per day to reach 13.6 million barrels per day, putting pressure on other oil-producing countries [2] - OPEC+ is expected to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in August and 274,000 barrels per day in September, with a complete removal of previous voluntary cuts by the end of the year [2] Group 3 - There are concerns about weak global oil demand, which may further pressure oil prices, especially with the upcoming deadline for the US to suspend "reciprocal tariffs" [3] - If the US can successfully negotiate agreements with other countries, it could lead to an increase in oil demand by at least 300,000 barrels, although short-term trade negotiations may hinder this [3] - Recent economic forecasts from the IMF and OECD have downgraded global economic expectations for the next two years, indicating that oil demand may be suppressed [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strongly Outperforming the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The current focus in the petrochemical sector is on crude oil prices, which are primarily influenced by geopolitical factors, although there is uncertainty regarding these developments. Additionally, the gradual approach to the consumption peak for refined oil may provide support for oil prices [2] - This week, due to a decline in crude oil prices, the petrochemical index underperformed relative to other sectors, closing at 2202.18 points, down 2.07% from the previous week. In contrast, other petrochemical sectors showed a positive performance with a 1.49% increase [5][2] - Crude oil prices have decreased, with U.S. crude oil inventories declining and refined oil inventories partially decreasing [6][10] - Polyester prices for polyester filament yarn have shown a stable increase, with a narrowing price spread. Inventory days for polyester filament yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have decreased, while the operating rate of weaving machines has declined [12][19] - For olefins, sample prices for polyethylene and polypropylene have slightly increased, while inventories have decreased during the week [21][24] Summary by Sections Crude Oil - Crude oil prices have decreased, with Brent crude futures and TTF natural gas futures down 11.6% and 18.2% respectively compared to last week [8] - U.S. crude oil and petroleum product inventories (excluding strategic reserves) totaled 1,230,719 thousand barrels, a decrease of 4,172 thousand barrels from the previous period [10] Polyester - The prices for polyester filament yarn (POY, DTY, FDY) are 7150, 8420, and 7450 yuan/ton respectively, with price spreads decreasing by 267, 197, and 247 yuan/ton compared to last week [14] - Inventory days for polyester filament yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are 18.9, 25.3, and 17.2 days for FDY, DTY, and POY respectively, with the operating rate for polyester filament yarn at 90.6% [19] Olefins - Sample prices for polyethylene and polypropylene have increased by 1.04% and 0.62% respectively, while the total petrochemical inventory stands at 700,000 tons, down 40,000 tons from last week [24]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur crack spread fluctuated and declined, the near - month spread decreased, and the EW weakened rapidly. The 380 8 - 9 month spread dropped to $4.25, the basis oscillated at a low level, the FU07 internal - external spread oscillated at - $5, and the 09 spread oscillated at + $10. There was a large amount of delivery goods in the near - month, maintaining a loose pattern [4]. - The low - sulfur crack spread rebounded, the month spread dropped to around $5, the basis weakened slightly and oscillated at $6. The LU internal - external spread remained strong, with the 09 spread oscillating at around $17 [7]. - This week, Singapore's on - shore inventory increased, floating storage oscillated at a high level, low - sulfur floating storage decreased slightly. ARA's on - shore inventory increased slightly, but the inventory was still at the lowest level in the same period of history, and floating storage inventory oscillated with low - sulfur floating storage increasing. Fujairah's on - shore inventory increased significantly, and floating storage decreased slightly [7]. - This week, geopolitical risks were lifted. Recently, fuel oil exports from Iran and Iraq remained at a high level, and Egypt's net imports reached a new high. The high - sulfur fundamentals were in an oscillating pattern. Currently, high - sulfur is in the peak power - generation season, the near - month internal - external spread of FU is under pressure, the valuation is low, and the game continues. In the future, pay attention to the shipping situation in the Middle East. The LU internal - external spread is running at a high level, and pay attention to the domestic production situation [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data - From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased from $460.60 to $411.99, a change of - $1.97; the price of Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 increased from $509.41 to $474.54, a change of $0.38; and other related spreads also had corresponding changes [2]. Singapore Fuel Oil Data - Swap data: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 decreased from $471.10 to $415.91, a change of - $7.34; the price of Singapore VLSFO M1 increased from $540.67 to $498.49, a change of $3.37 [2][6]. - Spot data: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the FOB 380cst price decreased from $475.90 to $416.77, a change of - $10.95; the FOB VLSFO price increased from $549.45 to $504.02, a change of $2.08 [3]. Domestic FU Data - From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the price of FU 01 changed from 3180 to 2864, a change of 1; the price of FU 05 changed from 3100 to 2811, a change of - 1; the price of FU 09 changed from 3385 to 3002, a change of - 17 [3]. Domestic LU Data - From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the price of LU 01 changed from 3815 to 3528, a change of 29; the price of LU 05 changed from 3701 to 3434, a change of 14; the price of LU 09 changed from 3968 to 3600, a change of - 23 [4].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the A-share market outlook for July 2025, highlighting the balance between low-valued blue-chip stocks and reasonably valued growth stocks, particularly in the technology sector [1][3][28]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Trend**: The A-share market is expected to remain in a fluctuating trend for both the short term and July 2025, primarily due to ongoing fundamental pressures [2][27]. - **Driving Factors**: Recent market gains are attributed to the easing of risk events, improved policy expectations, and inflows from institutional investors [4][12]. - **Geopolitical Risks**: The impact of geopolitical events, such as the Israel-Palestine ceasefire, is viewed as temporary, with ongoing uncertainties related to U.S.-China relations and tariff issues [5][6][25]. - **Economic Indicators**: May economic data shows a decline in export growth and negative profit growth for industrial enterprises, indicating potential underperformance in A-share mid-year reports [13][16]. - **Performance Expectations**: The A-share mid-year performance is anticipated to be weaker than previously expected, with significant pressure on corporate earnings [17][24]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Policy Impact**: The financial support policies for consumption have a limited overall effect on profits but provide some benefits to specific consumption sectors [8][10]. - **Seasonal Trends**: Historical data indicates that July typically exhibits a balanced performance with no clear upward or downward trend, contrary to traditional beliefs [19][20]. - **Liquidity Factors**: The liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, which could positively influence the A-share market despite potential external pressures [26][27]. - **Sector Preferences**: The preferred sectors for investment in July 2025 are expected to be growth and financial sectors, with historical trends supporting this allocation [28][29]. Recommendations for Investment - **Focus Areas**: Suggested sectors for investment include military, non-ferrous metals, electric equipment, new energy, transportation, and large financial sectors, along with technology sub-sectors that are undervalued or have seen limited price increases [35]. - **High Growth Sub-sectors**: Sub-sectors with high expected profit growth include aviation, energy metals, military electronics, and software development [34]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the A-share market outlook for July 2025.