Group 1 - The A-share market is undergoing significant reforms in its delisting system, with keywords for 2025 including "fraud delisting," "occupancy delisting," "voluntary delisting," and "investor protection" [1] - The average position of domestic stock private equity funds remains high at 83.16%, indicating strong confidence among leading private equity investors in the market outlook [1] - The new energy theme funds have shown a remarkable recovery, with an average net value increase of 41.33% over the past year, highlighting structural opportunities in sectors like energy storage and wind power [3] Group 2 - The commercial aerospace sector has seen a surge, with multiple satellite-themed ETFs rising over 10%, while the lithium battery sector remains strong [2] - The total market size of ETFs has surpassed 6 trillion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of over 60% compared to the end of 2024, with substantial net inflows of 915 billion yuan [2] - The lithium battery separator industry is experiencing a wave of mergers and acquisitions, indicating a trend towards industry consolidation and rising product prices due to increased demand [5] Group 3 - The A+H dual listing model is witnessing explosive growth, with 19 A-share companies successfully listing in Hong Kong in 2025, a 533% increase from 2024 [8] - The film market has achieved a record high in box office revenue for the 2025 holiday season, surpassing 5 billion yuan, driven by a diverse range of film releases [7] - Recent adjustments to real estate policies in Beijing aim to stabilize the market, leading to increased activity in both new and second-hand housing markets [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share market is experiencing a cross-year rally, driven by liquidity and positive policy expectations, with a focus on sectors like AI, commercial aerospace, and materials [9][10][11] - 39 out of 360 industry/theme ETFs reached new highs in December, with established sectors like telecommunications and non-ferrous metals leading, while new sectors like commercial aerospace are gaining traction [1] - The market consensus is shifting towards sectors representing competition in next-generation infrastructure between China and the US, with a focus on manufacturing and pricing power in the global market [1][2] Group 2 - The strategy emphasizes structural opportunities in a volatile market, with a preference for sectors with low concentration but rising attention and long-term ROE potential, such as chemicals and engineering machinery [2] - The outlook for the RMB is positive, with expectations of appreciation driven by improved domestic conditions and external factors, which could lead to significant capital inflows and asset revaluation [4][5] - The spring market is expected to benefit from favorable conditions, including liquidity support and upcoming policy events, with a focus on technology and cyclical sectors [3][10][12] Group 3 - The investment focus is on sectors that benefit from RMB appreciation, such as those with high import material dependency and those that can leverage increased domestic purchasing power [5] - The market is characterized by a structural rotation, with a focus on technology themes and sectors like commercial aerospace, nuclear power, and robotics [12][14] - The overall sentiment is optimistic, with expectations of a continued upward trend in the market leading up to the Spring Festival, supported by strong institutional buying and favorable policy expectations [11][13][14]

当8连阳与4000点希望相遇，股民手中的筹码将迎来关键时刻。 截至12月26日，沪指豪取8连阳，全周有超3400家股票上涨，为12月以来最好的一周 这让市场对在年底前站上4000点多了一份期待 不过，最后一个交易周（12月28日至31日）仅剩三天，股民在享受连阳喜悦的同时，更需保持一份清醒 刚过去的交易周，A股延续了反弹势头。Wind数据显示，全A平均股价全周上涨3.15%，周中最高触及27.03元，追平了9月18日盘中创下的年内高点 其他主要股指本周走势也与之相仿。这让投资者多了一份期待——能否再接再厉，在跨年之前站上4000点 不过市场在乐观中也有波折。12月27日周五盘中突发集体跳水，被认为是市场分歧的一次预演 这其中竟然有1019亿来自于A500ETF，占比达到92.2% 强劲的增量资金，成为12月下旬春季躁动的进一步推动力，叠加前期的积极要素，助力上证指数实现8连阳 机构对春季行情的提前启动抱有期待。复盘历史，春季行情通常始于11月底或12月初，并运行至2月附近 华金证券认为，明年1月春季行情可能延续，A股可能震荡偏强 对于这波增量资金的影响，开源证券分析，如果资金是临时"冲量"，考虑到其"新增"属 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to experience a spring rally driven by liquidity, policy expectations, and structural opportunities, with a focus on sectors like AI, commercial aerospace, and non-bank financials [5][10][12]. Group 1: Market Trends and Predictions - 39 out of 360 industry/theme ETFs reached new highs in December, with communication and non-ferrous metals being traditional favorites, while new themes like commercial aerospace are gaining traction [3]. - The A-share market is showing signs of a spring rally, supported by liquidity and positive policy expectations, with a focus on sectors such as technology and advanced manufacturing [5][10]. - The market is expected to maintain a high risk appetite due to favorable conditions, including a weak dollar and the upcoming Chinese New Year and Two Sessions [11][16]. Group 2: Sector Focus and Investment Opportunities - Key sectors to watch include AI, commercial aerospace, and non-ferrous metals, which are expected to benefit from structural changes and increased demand [10][12]. - The manufacturing sector, particularly in chemicals and engineering machinery, is showing signs of recovery and is expected to benefit from the shift in global competition [3][4]. - Non-bank financials, including insurance and brokerage firms, are positioned to benefit from the anticipated capital inflows and improved asset returns [9][12]. Group 3: Currency and Economic Factors - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to lower import costs and enhance domestic purchasing power, benefiting sectors reliant on imports and domestic consumption [7][9]. - The potential for significant capital inflows due to RMB appreciation could lead to a revaluation of Chinese assets, creating a favorable environment for investment [7][9]. - The overall economic environment is improving, with expectations of continued liquidity support and a stable policy backdrop, which is conducive to market growth [5][10].

Group 1 - The core consensus among institutions is that the "spring market" has begun early, with a rebound in the market since mid-December, driven by significant global events affecting liquidity and fundamental expectations [1][2] - Institutions believe that the current market conditions, including overall valuation and sector direction, are favorable for investment, particularly in growth sectors such as technology, lithium batteries, smart driving, commercial aerospace, and domestic consumption [1][2] - Historical patterns suggest that the spring market typically starts when indices are at relatively low levels, which is currently the case, indicating a potential for upward movement [2][3] Group 2 - Specific sectors of interest include AI-driven industries, the high prosperity of the non-ferrous metals sector, cash flow value of dividend assets, and the valuation recovery of consumption and non-bank financials [3] - In the consumer sector, opportunities are expected to arise from the consolidation of the tourism industry, while in the chemical sector, companies maintaining profitability and actively expanding their businesses are of interest [3] - The healthcare sector is also highlighted, with a focus on consumer service-oriented assets such as pharmacies and home medical services [3] Group 3 - In technology stocks, significant attention is directed towards breakthroughs in application areas, particularly in AI infrastructure and smart hardware, with potential investment opportunities in humanoid robots and smart driving [3][4] - The robotics sector is anticipated to transition from ornamental value to functional value, while smart driving is expected to see high-level intelligent driving becoming a standard feature in vehicles priced above 200,000 yuan, a trend currently underestimated by the market [4]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the market is currently in a consolidation phase, with opportunities to buy on dips ahead of a potential spring rally. The A-share market has shown strength, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.9% and the ChiNext Index gaining 3.9% [1][8] - The A-share market's average daily turnover has rebounded to nearly RMB 2 trillion, driven by significant trading in the commercial aerospace sector and A500 ETFs, while the Hong Kong market turnover has declined to around HKD 160 billion due to the Christmas holiday [3][11] - The report notes that the commercial aerospace sector has absorbed market liquidity, accounting for 20% of total A-share trading, indicating a shift in market dynamics [3][11] Group 2 - The report highlights that the U.S. dollar index has declined by 0.7% to 98, with expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts, leading to a general appreciation of non-U.S. currencies, including the RMB, which has appreciated by 2.6% to 97.88 since July [2][9] - The report indicates that the one-year forward rate for the RMB has risen to 6.87, reflecting strengthened appreciation expectations, although the daily fixing remains around 7.036, suggesting a cautious approach from the PBOC regarding rapid appreciation [2][9] - The report discusses the significant rise in commodity prices, particularly in precious metals like silver and platinum, driven by a weaker U.S. dollar and geopolitical tensions, indicating a shift in capital towards metals [2][10] Group 3 - The report suggests that A-shares may attempt another upward push, with Hong Kong equities potentially following suit. However, further upside in A-shares will face resistance near annual highs, and a clean breakout is likely to be challenging without a meaningful expansion in turnover [4][14] - The report recommends focusing on domestically oriented consumption and non-bank financials that are trading at low levels and offer defensive characteristics in the near term. It also suggests that a market pullback could provide an opportunity to increase exposure to technology sectors [4][14]

信任命 2025 年 12 月 28 日 相关研究 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 quozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 quozy@swsresearch.com 会属价格强势突破,看好春季行情 金属&新材料行业周报 20251222-20251226 本期投资提示: 我研究报 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 波段人分出品 申万宏源研究微信服务号 o 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 1.88%，深证成指上涨 3.53%，沪深 300 上涨 1.95%，有色金属（申 万) 指数上涨 6.43%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 4.48 个百分点。2）分子板块看，环比上周，贵金属上涨 4.06%，铝上涨 6.33%， 能源金属上涨 6.66%，小金属上涨 6.16%，铜上涨 ...

一月春季行情延续，科技和周期占优 定期报告 投资要点 2025 年 12 月 27 日 策略类●证券研究报告 分析师 邓利军 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910523080001 denglijun@huajinsc.cn 分析师 张欣诺 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910525110001 zhangxinnuo@huajinsc.cn 相关报告 新股次新板块弱势博弈，新一轮活跃周期尚 在酝酿-华金证券新股周报 2025.12.21 春季行情开启中，聚焦成长 2025.12.20 局部人气聚集推升新股板块交投意愿，但活 跃周期开启可能仍待观察-华金证券新股周 报 2025.12.14 春季行情中行业如何轮动？ 2025.12.13 挖掘经济潜能，股市慢牛延续 2025.12.12 复盘历史，春季行情提前启动时 A 股 1 月表现偏强，主要受政策和外部事件、流 动性等因素影响。（1）春季行情提前启动时 A 股 1 月表现多偏强。（2）影响 1 月 A 股走势的主要因素是政策和外部事件、流动性等。一是政策和外部事件是影响 1 月 A 股走势的核心因素：首先，积极的政策和外部事件可能导致上证综指上涨， 如 2019 ...

刚过去的交易周（12月22日至26日），A股延续前一周的反弹势头，超预期地走强，甚至可以说，提前开启了"跨年红 包"行情。 Wind数据显示，本周有3410家股票累计上涨，为12月以来最好一周。 | 1 日期 | 内地 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 上涨家数 | 平盘宝数 | 下跌家数 | | 2025-12-26 | 3.410 | 80 = | 1.976 | | 2025-12-19 | 2.977 | 60 | 2.423 | | 2025-12-12 | 1.781 | 47 | 3.629 | | 2025-12-05 | 2.338 | 74 | 3.043 | | 2025-11-28 | 4.544 | 48 | 862 | | 2025-11-21 | 520 | 9 | 4.922 | | 2025-11-14 | 3.060 | 50 | 2.338 | | 2025-11-07 | 2.977 | 47 | 2,423 | 全A平均股价全周上涨3.15%，周中最高触及27.03元，追平了3个月前——9月18日盘中创下的年内高点，因此下周还有 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中泰证券发布研报称，本周市场的持续上涨，更多源于在周期板块带动下的风险偏 好阶段性修复。临近年底，本周国内外政策面与消息面较为平静，缺乏对市场形成直接冲击的新增利好 因素，行情的推动力量主要来自市场内部结构的变化。展望后市，春节前行情整体仍具备上行空间，短 期仍有逢低布局机会。 不过，需要强调的是，当前市场更符合"底部夯实后、为春节前行情做准备"的阶段特征，而非主升浪已 正式开启。当前市场资金更多采取"逢低布局、结构切换"的参与方式，而非在高位进行趋势性加仓。这 决定了短期行情更可能以"震荡中逐步抬高重心、内部结构持续调整"的方式演绎，而非快速拉升并形成 单边、持续的赚钱效应。 投资建议： 中泰证券主要观点如下： 指数创新高与个股分化并存，行情进入高位结构再平衡阶段。 本周A股市场在指数层面延续强势，从主要指数表现来看，本周万得全A、沪深300和中证2000指数分别 上涨2.78%、1.95%和3.06%。从成交额层面来看，万得全A日均成交额由上周的1.76万亿元逐步放量至 1.97万亿元，在周五当日突破2万亿大关。从个股层面来看，本周万得全A上涨个股日均占比约为 52.20%，与上周基本 ...