Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on June 11, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, aiming to provide investors with data for potential arbitrage opportunities [1]. 3. Summary by Category Power Coal - **Base Difference**: From June 4 to June 10, 2025, the base difference was - 192.4 yuan/ton, and the 5 - month - 1 - month, 9 - month - 1 - month, and 9 - month - 5 - month spreads were all 0 [2]. Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities** - **Base Difference**: For INE crude oil on June 10, 2025, the base difference was - 14.42 yuan/ton; for fuel oil, it was 191.19 yuan/ton. The ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 0.1328 [10]. - **Chemical Commodities** - **Base Difference**: On June 10, 2025, the base differences of natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, and PP were 45, 119, 243, 144, and 609 yuan/ton respectively [11]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: For example, the 5 - month - 1 - month spread of natural rubber was 35 yuan/ton, and the 9 - month - 1 - month spread was - 890 yuan/ton [11]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: On June 10, 2025, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2294 yuan/ton, and the LLDPE - PP spread was 158 yuan/ton [11]. Black Metals - **Base Difference**: On June 10, 2025, the base differences of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal were 126, 104, - 11.8, and 46 yuan/ton respectively [16]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: For rebar, the 5 - month - 1 - month spread was 3 yuan/ton, and the 10 - month - 1 - month spread was 4 yuan/ton [16]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: On June 10, 2025, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 4.26, and the rebar/coke ratio was 2.2046 [16]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market** - **Base Difference**: On June 10, 2025, the base differences of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were 510, 160, 295, - 50, 1590, and 1390 yuan/ton respectively [24]. - **London Market** - **LME Premiums and Discounts**: On June 10, 2025, the LME premiums and discounts of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were 84.10, 7.37, - 33.05, - 27.55, - 194.17, and 5.00 respectively [31]. - **Shanghai - London Ratio**: The Shanghai - London ratios of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were 8.11, 8.09, 8.27, 8.48, 7.91, and 8.10 respectively [31]. - **Import Profit and Loss**: The import profit and loss of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were - 1172.72, - 1399.92, - 536.36, 313.62, - 1058.35, and - 21434.71 yuan/ton respectively [31]. Agricultural Products - **Base Difference**: On June 10, 2025, the base differences of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn were - 119, 0, - 51, 332, and 1 yuan/ton respectively [40]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: For soybeans No.1, the 5 - month - 1 - month spread was 9 yuan/ton, and the 9 - month - 1 - month spread was 110 yuan/ton [40]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: On June 10, 2025, the soybean No.1/corn ratio was 1.77, and the soybean oil/soybean meal ratio was 2.56 [40]. Stock Index Futures - **Base Difference**: On June 10, 2025, the base differences of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 24.47, 16.40, 39.79, and 47.89 respectively [48]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: For CSI 300, the next - month - current - month spread was - 38.2, and the current - quarter - current - month spread was - 67.6 [48].

热点解读:铝合金期货上涨点评 ◆ 2025年06月10日 15:00 AD2511-AL2511合约价差-535元/吨,AD2511合约价格相较 AL2511处于合理偏低位置,价差达到-800元/吨可考虑套利操作。 绝对价格方面,AD2511并不处于低估状态,做当前铝价上涨驱动力 不足,因此铝合金价格在库存增长的局面下做多动力不足。 风险提示:政策扰动、流动性风险 华泰期货 新能源&有色金属组 6月10日,铝合金期货2511合约上市首日,指导价18365元/吨, 开盘价19400元/吨,收盘于19190元/吨,涨幅4.49%,成交量 52297收,持仓量9723手。 www.htfc.com 400-628-0888 今日保太报价持稳于19400元/吨,现货市场成交价格19200元/ 吨左右,在考虑仓单质押的情况下,到11月持有成本215元/吨左右, 即目前2511合约盘面价格处于贴水状态，市场排布呈现back结构。 按照当前盘面价格,行业生产面临亏损,保值意愿较差,若盘面 价格提升至19600元/吨附近,即存在无风险套利卖交割机会,且行 业存在冶炼利润保值积极性将会提高，因此19600元/吨即偏高估。 陈思 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS has risen significantly, fulfilling positive expectations. Market sentiment is generally pessimistic, and risk - takers can consider lightly shorting at high prices [2]. - Attention should be paid to the results of the Sino - US meeting. Without more positive news, the market is more likely to fall than rise. Key factors to watch include the 90 - day spot freight rate range, the feedback of terminal demand under tariff policy easing, and the final ruling result [4]. - Amid the Sino - US economic and trade consultations, although SCFIS has risen sharply, the positive sentiment has mostly subsided. The market is in a range - bound oscillation, and future attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Freight Index Changes - On June 9, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1622.81 points, up 29.5% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 2185.08 points, up 27.2% from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 2240.35 points, up 167.64 points from the previous period. The SCFI European route price was 1667 USD/TEU, up 5.04% from the previous period; the US - West route price was 5606 USD/FEU, up 8.39% from the previous period [3]. - On June 6, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1669.44 points, down 0.41% from the previous period; the European route was 1123.64 points, up 5.25% from the previous period; the US - West route was 3259.14 points, down 9.10% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1154.98 points, up 3.3% from the previous period; the European route was 1397.02 points, up 1.6% from the previous period; the US - West route was 1034.94 points, up 9.6% from the previous period [3]. Economic Data - Eurozone's May manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4 (expected 49.3, previous 49); services PMI preliminary value was 48.9 (expected 50.3, previous 50.1); composite PMI was 49.5 (expected 50.7, previous 50.4). The May Sentix investor confidence index was - 8.1 (expected - 11.5, previous - 19.5) [3]. - China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI in May was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024 [3]. - US May Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.3, a three - month high (expected 49.9, previous 50.2); services PMI preliminary value was 52.3, a two - month high (expected 51, previous 50.8); composite PMI preliminary value was 52.1 (expected 50.3, previous 50.6) [3]. Market and Policy Information - As of June 9, the main contract 2508 closed at 2065.6, down 2.55%, with a trading volume of 55,700 lots and an open interest of 44,100 lots, a decrease of 2100 lots from the previous day [4]. - The first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism is being held in the UK, and the market is in a wait - and - see mode [4]. - Short - term strategy: For the 2506 contract, focus on the logic of basis convergence; for the 2508 contract, it is recommended to lightly short when it rebounds above 2250 and set a stop - loss [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of tariff easing, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a near - strong and far - weak freight rate pattern. Attention should be paid to the court's ruling, and currently, a positive arbitrage structure is mainly adopted [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [5]. - The daily price limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 has been adjusted to 16%, the company's margin for these contracts has been adjusted to 26%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [5]. Trade Data - In the first five months of this year, ASEAN was China's largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 3.02 trillion yuan, up 9.1%, accounting for 16.8% of China's total foreign trade. Exports to ASEAN were 1.9 trillion yuan, up 13.5%; imports from ASEAN were 1.12 trillion yuan, up 2.3% [6][8]. - The EU was China's second - largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 2.3 trillion yuan, up 2.9%, accounting for 12.8%. Exports to the EU were 1.57 trillion yuan, up 7.7%; imports from the EU were 7283.3 billion yuan, down 6.1% [6]. - The US was China's third - largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 1.72 trillion yuan, down 8.1%, accounting for 9.6%. Exports to the US were 1.27 trillion yuan, down 8.7%; imports from the US were 4475.1 billion yuan, down 6.3% [6]. - China's total imports and exports to countries along the Belt and Road Initiative were 9.24 trillion yuan, up 4.2%. Exports were 5.34 trillion yuan, up 10.4%; imports were 3.9 trillion yuan, down 3.2% [6].

| 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/06/09 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/06 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/05 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/04 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/03 | -191.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 6 月 10 日） 一、动力煤 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will launch futures and options contracts for casting aluminum alloys on June 10, 2025, to support China's dual carbon strategy and enhance the industry's risk management tools [1] Group 1: Market Overview - China is the largest producer and consumer of casting aluminum alloys globally, with an estimated production capacity of 13 million tons and a production volume of 6.2 million tons in 2024 [1] - The apparent consumption of casting aluminum alloys in China is projected to be approximately 6.73 million tons [1] Group 2: Product Characteristics and Applications - Casting aluminum alloys are characterized by low density, high strength, good corrosion resistance, and excellent castability, making them widely used in automotive, motorcycle, machinery, communication equipment, electronics, and hardware lighting sectors [1] Group 3: Futures Market Impact - The introduction of casting aluminum alloy futures and options is expected to provide effective tools for enterprises to manage price risks and stabilize operations [1] - The contracts will facilitate physical delivery, expanding the spot circulation channels for enterprises [1] Group 4: Pricing and Valuation - The initial listing benchmark price for the casting aluminum alloy contracts is set at 18,365 CNY per ton, with trading units of 10 tons and delivery units of 30 tons per standard warehouse receipt [2] - Initial reasonable valuation for the contracts is estimated to be between 19,000 and 20,000 CNY per ton based on current market prices [2] Group 5: Demand Dynamics - The downstream demand for casting aluminum alloys is concentrated, with over 60% used in the automotive sector, 7% in home appliances, and 10% in motorcycles and electric vehicles [3] - Seasonal demand fluctuations are expected, with peak demand from September to December and January of the following year, while the off-peak season typically occurs from May to August [3] Group 6: Price Relationships - The price relationship between primary aluminum and recycled aluminum shows seasonal trends, with the price difference typically ranging from 1,000 to 4,000 CNY per ton [3] - The correlation between aluminum alloy spot prices and primary aluminum spot prices can be utilized for effective price risk management [4]

Summary of the Conference Call on the Recycled Aluminum Alloy Industry Industry Overview - The recycled aluminum alloy industry in China heavily relies on scrap aluminum, with approximately 60% of the waste material flow directed towards this sector, closely linked to electrolytic aluminum [1][2] - The recovery process for scrap aluminum is technically simple, but the domestic recycling system is underdeveloped, leading to tight supply conditions [1] Key Points and Arguments Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, influenced by national policies on waste imports and trade tensions, particularly between China and the U.S. [4] - The domestic recycling rate for aluminum is about 40%, which is lower than in developed countries [1][6] - The demand for recycled aluminum alloys, particularly ADC12, is concentrated in the automotive sector, accounting for about 70% of total demand [10][11] Pricing Mechanisms - The pricing of scrap aluminum varies significantly based on impurity levels, with higher purity materials commanding higher prices [5] - The pricing mechanism for scrap aluminum is flexible, primarily referencing output rates and influenced by both domestic and international market conditions [13] Production Capacity and Market Structure - The total production capacity for recycled aluminum exceeds 30 million tons, but the industry is characterized by low concentration, with the top five companies holding only 30% of the market [7] - The overall operating rate in the industry is only around 45%, indicating overcapacity and reliance on scrap supply and demand [16] Future Outlook - The introduction of futures trading for aluminum is expected to shift pricing power and potentially increase supply by attracting more scrap material into the market [3][12] - The market for recycled aluminum alloys is projected to grow as the demand for electric vehicles increases, although ADC12 may see reduced usage due to higher performance requirements in new applications [11][27] Regulatory and Policy Impacts - National policies have significantly impacted the import of scrap aluminum, with restrictions leading to a decrease in import volumes from 2018 to 2020 [4] - The establishment of unified projects for the dismantling of end-of-life vehicles is expected to enhance the supply of scrap aluminum [12] Challenges and Risks - The industry faces challenges related to data quality and the accuracy of supply and demand statistics, which can hinder effective market analysis [15] - The reliance on scrap aluminum and the associated pricing volatility pose risks to profitability for manufacturers [20][37] Additional Important Insights - The production of ADC12 is influenced by the price differential with electrolytic aluminum (A00), with significant implications for inventory management and trade [18][36] - The market is currently experiencing a seasonal fluctuation in demand, which affects production rates and pricing strategies [40][41] - The introduction of futures contracts is anticipated to provide more stability and predictability in pricing, although the market may still experience volatility due to external factors [32][33] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the recycled aluminum alloy industry, highlighting the interplay between supply dynamics, pricing mechanisms, production capacity, and regulatory impacts.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The report presents the basis, price ratio, and spread data of various commodities including thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures on different dates in June 2025, which can help investors understand the market conditions and potential investment opportunities of these commodities [2][6][16][24][37][47] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - Basis data from May 30, 2025, to June 6, 2025, are presented, and the basis is negative. The 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 spreads are all 0 [2] 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - Basis data of INE crude oil and fuel oil, and the price ratio of crude oil to asphalt from May 30, 2025, to June 6, 2025, are provided. The basis of INE crude oil is negative [6] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - Basis, inter - month spread, and inter - commodity spread data of various chemical commodities such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, etc., from May 30, 2025, to June 6, 2025, are given [11] 3.3 Black Metals - Basis, inter - month spread, and inter - commodity data of black metals including rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from May 30, 2025, to June 6, 2025, are presented [16] 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - Domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from May 30, 2025, to June 6, 2025, are provided [24] 3.4.2 London Market - LME price premium or discount, Shanghai - London price ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on June 6, 2025, are given [30] 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis, inter - month spread, and inter - commodity spread data of agricultural products such as soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc., from May 30, 2025, to June 6, 2025, are presented [37][39] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis and inter - month spread data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures are provided [47]

免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，客户应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交 锌 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 -340 -345 理论价差 107 232 铅 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 100 150 理论价差 146 257 跨品种套利跟踪 2025/05/30 铜/锌 铜/铝 铜/铅 铝/锌 铝/铅 铅/锌 沪（三连） 3.50 3.87 4.65 0.90 1.20 0.75 伦（三连） 3.58 3.90 4.87 0.92 1.25 0.73 铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/05/30 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 16600 1964 8.44 三月 16740 1988 11.27 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.90 -914.81 跨期套利跟踪 2025/05/30 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market still anticipates price increases in the second half of June. The 06 contract should focus on the final implementation of price increases, while the 08 contract faces a game of continued price - increase expectations. As the delivery deadline approaches, the 06 contract will gradually shift to "reality" - based trading. The 8 - month contract, being in the traditional peak season with relatively less capacity in July, still has price - increase expectations. It is recommended to conduct arbitrage operations for the 08 contract. The main contract is expected to fluctuate, and the recommended arbitrage strategy is to go long on the 08 contract and short on the 10 contract [1][3][5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Futures Prices - As of May 29, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 93,146 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 102,136 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1372.30, 1222.80, 1773.00, 1949.50, 1349.40, and 1526.00 respectively [4]. 3.2 Spot Prices - On May 23, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1317.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 3275.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 4284.00 US dollars/FEU. On May 26, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1247.05 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1719.79 points [4][5]. 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of May 25, 2025, 109 container ships had been delivered, with a total delivery capacity of 873,100 TEU. Among them, 34 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 513,200 TEU; 4 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 94,864 TEU [5]. - In June, the shipping capacity on the European route remained relatively high, and the shipping capacity on the Shanghai - US East and West routes increased significantly compared to the previous month. The monthly average weekly capacity on the Shanghai - European route in June was about 280,000 TEU, and the capacity in weeks 23/24/25/26/27 was 292,400/267,500/301,800/275,000 TEU, an increase of over 20% compared to the same period last year. The monthly average weekly capacity in July was 261,000 TEU. The weekly average capacity on the Shanghai - US East and West routes in June was 334,000 TEU, 243,400 TEU in May, and 305,000 TEU in July [2]. 3.4 Supply Chain - No specific analysis content provided in the given text, only figure references such as global container ship capacity congestion ratio, global container ship congestion capacity, ship speeds of different tonnages, and the number of container ships passing through major canals [49][53][58]. 3.5 Demand and European Economy - No specific analysis content provided in the given text, only figure references such as port container throughput, EU 27 industrial production index, EU 27 imports from China, euro - area consumer confidence index, and China's export volume to the EU [69][70][77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View The report presents the basis, price spreads, and other data of various commodities including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures on different dates from May 21 to May 27, 2025, offering data support for investors to analyze market trends and arbitrage opportunities. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - The basis of power coal from May 21 to May 27, 2025, was - 190.4 yuan/ton, and the spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 were all 0 [2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - For INE crude oil, the basis on May 27, 2025, was - 7.49 yuan/ton, showing a change compared to previous days. The basis of fuel oil was not available on May 27, and the crude oil/asphalt ratio was 0.1302 [6]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis of various chemicals such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, etc., had different values on different dates. For example, the basis of natural rubber on May 27 was - 95 yuan/ton [11]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: Different inter - month spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) were presented for chemicals like natural rubber, methanol, and PTA [11]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc., also showed variations on different dates [11]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal had different values on different dates. For example, the basis of rebar on May 27 was 140.0 yuan/ton [16]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: Different inter - month spreads were presented for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal [16]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Ratios such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, and coke/coking coal, as well as the spread of rebar - hot - rolled coil, were provided [16]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis of copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., had different values on different dates. For example, the basis of copper on May 27 was 370 yuan/ton [24]. 3.4.2 London Market - Data on LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss were provided for copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. For example, the LME spread of copper on May 27 was 40.08 [31]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc., had different values on different dates. For example, the basis of soybean No.1 on May 27 was - 64 yuan/ton [40]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: Different inter - month spreads were presented for various agricultural products [40]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Ratios such as soybean No.1/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc., were provided [40]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 had different values on different dates. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on May 27 was 30.20 [48]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: Different inter - month spreads (next - current, current - quarter - current, etc.) were presented for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 [48].