12月的金融市场刚稳了没几天，就被特朗普的一句话搅翻了天。他在12月2日的内阁会议上明确表示，2026年初会公布下任美联储主席人选，消息一出美元 指数立刻跳水，黄金价格反倒踩着上涨曲线一路走高。这不是单纯的人事变动消息，更像一颗投向全球金融池的石子，激起的涟漪里，藏着美元信用、美债 安全和大国资产布局的大文章。 美联储的"独立性"从来都是美元的压舱石，现在这块石头要被撬动了。过去美联储制定政策，核心是盯着2%的通胀目标和充分就业，不用看白宫脸色。但 哈塞特的表态很清楚，他要是上任，货币政策得跟着特朗普的产业政策、减税政策走。市场立刻就算出了后果：美联储可能不管通胀目标，跟着政府的意思 滥发货币，用美元贬值来稀释美债压力，顺便让美国商品在国际上更便宜。这种操作说白了就是悄悄赖账，债权国肯定不会坐视不理。 "大空头"迈克尔·伯里早就看穿了这层风险。这位曾经精准预言次贷危机的投资人，最近打破多年沉默发声，他觉得美国可能根本不需要美联储了，货币政 策早晚要被财政部接手，这两个部门现在已经快分不清界限。伯里直言，美联储干了上百年，没少捅娄子，要是特朗普真把美联储攥在手里，这家全球央行 的公信力就彻底完了，到时候没人会再 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the Chinese yuan (RMB) against the US dollar, highlighting a rebound in the RMB exchange rate after a prolonged period of depreciation, and emphasizes the need for adaptability to a new normal of two-way fluctuations in the currency market [1][2]. Summary by Sections RMB Exchange Rate Performance - In 2023, the RMB has shown resilience against external shocks, with the onshore RMB appreciating by 1.55% in the first eleven months, the spot exchange rate rising by 3.10%, and the offshore RMB (CNH) increasing by 3.76% [1]. - The RMB exchange rate has experienced a significant narrowing of volatility, with the maximum fluctuation of the onshore midpoint rate at 1.9%, the lowest since 2016, and the spot rate's maximum fluctuation at 3.8%, also the lowest since 2016 [4]. Stability Measures and Market Reactions - The Chinese government has emphasized maintaining the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, which has led to reduced exchange rate elasticity and suppressed depreciation pressures [5][4]. - In September, the bank's foreign exchange settlement surplus surged to $73.4 billion, the second-highest since the 2015 exchange rate reform, but dropped to $27.3 billion in October, indicating that the market's expectations for RMB appreciation may have been overstated [8]. Factors Influencing Future RMB Trends - Several factors are contributing to the recent optimism regarding the RMB, including potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, discussions between Chinese and US leaders, and the possibility of a more stable US-China trade relationship [10][11]. - The Chinese economy is expected to continue its recovery, supported by proactive macroeconomic policies and structural reforms aimed at enhancing productivity and innovation [12]. Challenges and Uncertainties - Despite positive trends, the RMB faces uncertainties due to domestic economic challenges, external trade environment fluctuations, and the potential strength of the US dollar [13][14][15]. - The article suggests that while the RMB may break the 7.0 mark against the dollar, its ability to maintain stability below this level remains uncertain, depending on future policy directions and market conditions [16].

Core Insights - The report focuses on two historical gold bull market cycles: 1975-1980 and 2005-2011, analyzing the correlation and divergence between gold and U.S. equities during different phases and the underlying driving mechanisms [3][17]. - Three core variables influencing the relationship between gold and U.S. equities are identified: U.S. dollar credit, monetary policy cycles, and the evolution of risk events [3][17]. Framework 1: Major Asset Allocation Strategy - Utilizing Martin J. Pring's business cycle framework, the U.S. economy from 1975 to present is segmented into six cycles: depression, recovery, prosperity, overheating, stagflation, and recession [6][29]. - In the depression phase, bonds outperform due to declining economic and inflation conditions; during recovery, equities become the core allocation as economic stability and declining inflation support growth [6][29]. Framework 2: Global Monetary Easing and Asset Rotation Strategy - Historical data reveals that post-economic crises, the recovery sequence of various resource prices follows their proximity to end-user demand [7][18]. - After the 2008 financial crisis, gold stabilized first due to its safe-haven attributes, followed by commodities with both financial and industrial characteristics, and finally assets closely tied to real demand [7][18]. Gold Bull Market Cycle Analysis - The first gold bull market (1975-1980) was driven by stagflation, with gold prices increasing by 242%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 98% rise [32][37]. - The second bull market (2005-2011) was characterized by the subprime crisis and quantitative easing, evolving through four phases: pre-crisis coordination, crisis-induced divergence, policy-driven coordination, and renewed divergence amid rising risks [17][32]. Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts may benefit both U.S. equities and gold, with a favorable monetary environment likely to boost equity valuations and resource prices [9][18]. - However, there is a caution regarding the internal conflict between gold and technology stocks, particularly if AI investments do not enhance productivity and fiscal sustainability, which could lead to market volatility [9][18].

Core Viewpoint - Trump's announcement regarding the next Federal Reserve Chair has created significant tension and speculation in the financial markets, marking a departure from traditional practices in U.S. politics [1][3][15] Group 1: Political Dynamics - Trump's relationship with current Chair Powell has been strained, with past public disputes and pressure for more aggressive interest rate cuts [3][10] - The announcement appears to be a strategic move to exert influence over the Federal Reserve's decision-making process, raising concerns about the independence of the institution [3][8][15] - The political maneuvering surrounding the Fed Chair position reflects broader tensions between domestic politics and global economic stability [15][17] Group 2: Market Reactions - The uncertainty surrounding the new Chair's alignment with White House interests has heightened market sensitivity, with potential implications for the dollar's value and global inflation [5][12][15] - Investors are on high alert, as changes in Fed leadership can lead to significant shifts in monetary policy, affecting capital flows and market confidence [5][14][15] - The market's reaction to the new Chair will depend on their perceived independence and ability to maintain the Fed's credibility [17] Group 3: Institutional Integrity - The Federal Reserve's independence is crucial for maintaining market confidence, and any perceived political interference could undermine its authority [8][9][10] - Historical precedents show that previous administrations respected the Fed's autonomy, making Trump's approach particularly notable [14][15] - The potential for the Fed to become a tool of the White House raises concerns about the long-term implications for U.S. monetary policy and global economic stability [10][15]

Core Insights - The 2025 Analyst Conference highlighted the current chaotic state of global asset allocation, with a focus on the potential for a bull market in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [3][4] - Li Bei, founder of Hanxia Investment, emphasized the challenges in asset allocation due to various global uncertainties, including high fiscal deficits in the US and concerns over asset safety [3][4] Market Performance - The past year saw decent performance across various asset classes, but the difficulty in asset allocation has increased significantly [3][6] - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are viewed as "small fortunes" with the CSI 300 index currently at a PE ratio of approximately 13 times, implying a 7% return [4][10] - Despite ongoing economic deflation, the core index's ROE has stabilized, indicating resilience in leading companies' profitability [4][10] Sector Analysis - Leading companies in struggling sectors, such as construction and real estate, have begun to see profit recovery, with some construction leaders achieving net profit margins of 6% [4][11] - Real estate firms are gaining improved bargaining power in land acquisition, leading to net profit margins exceeding 10% for new projects [4][11] Future Outlook - There is optimism for a bull market in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, driven by the potential migration of capital into Chinese assets as domestic economic stability improves [4][12] - The current low risk appetite among Chinese residents, with significant wealth concentrated in fixed income, presents a potential catalyst for future asset reallocation [4][12] - The mismatch between China's manufacturing share and its international reserve status suggests that a recovery in the economy could lead to increased RMB settlement and reserve ratios [4][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current focus of the precious metals market is the subsequent personnel changes at the Federal Reserve and the resulting monetary policy expectations, making gold and silver prices prone to rise and difficult to fall [1] - If Hassett is officially nominated as the new Federal Reserve Chairman next month, the market will further trade the impact of the weakened independence and influence of the Federal Reserve on the US dollar's credit [2] - The expectation of the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy has significantly rebounded after the speeches of key voting members of the Fed, and the overseas interest - rate cut cycle will continue. The further driving force will be concentrated in December. It is recommended to buy on dips in the precious metals strategy [3] 3. Summary According to Related Contents Market Quotes - On November 28, 2025, Shanghai gold rose 0.02% to 946.90 yuan/g, Shanghai silver rose 1.29% to 12,490.00 yuan/kg; COMEX gold was reported at 4,194.00 US dollars/ounce, COMEX silver was reported at 53.82 US dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4%, and the US dollar index was reported at 99.53 [1] Federal Reserve Personnel and Policy Expectations - Foreign media reported that Hassett, the current director of the White House Economic Council, is the most popular candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chairman. His appointment would bring Trump's intentions into the Federal Reserve, greatly impacting its monetary policy independence. He said this month that he would cut interest rates if he were the Fed Chairman now [2] - Trump's policy team members, US Treasury Secretary Bessent and current Fed Governor Milan, expressed the need for the Fed to conduct "natural balance - sheet reduction" while buying US Treasuries, aiming to weaken the Fed's influence on the economy [2] - The CME interest - rate observer shows that the market expects an 86.9% probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut at the Fed's December meeting and a 13.1% probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged [2] Strategy Suggestions - The expectation of the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy has significantly rebounded, and the overseas interest - rate cut cycle will continue. The further driving force will be concentrated in December. On December 10, the Fed will hold its last interest - rate meeting of the year and release an economic outlook report. Trump will probably complete the selection of the new Fed Chairman in late December [3] - It is recommended to buy on dips in the precious metals strategy. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 917 - 967 yuan/g, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 12,036 - 13,000 yuan/kg [3] Data Summary - For gold on November 27, 2025, compared with the previous day, COMEX gold's closing price, trading volume, and open interest increased, while inventory decreased slightly; LBMA gold's closing price increased; SHFE gold's closing price, open interest, and precipitation funds increased, while trading volume decreased; AuT + D's closing price and open interest increased, while trading volume decreased [5] - For silver on November 27, 2025, compared with the previous day, COMEX silver's closing price, open interest, and trading volume increased, while inventory decreased; LBMA silver's closing price increased; SHFE silver's closing price, open interest, trading volume, and precipitation funds increased, while inventory increased; AgT + D's closing price and trading volume increased, while open interest decreased [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【贵金属周报（AU、AG）】 美联储内部分歧加剧，贵金属承压回落 国贸期货 贵金属与新能源研究中心 2025-11-24 白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 周度观点摘要 ◆ 上周贵金属有所承压，周线整体收跌。主要影响因素分析如下：（1）美联储官员上 半周表态偏鹰，加上美联储10月会议纪要进一步暴露美联储内部对于12月降息的分歧日益 加剧，同时美国政府明确10月非农、CPI数据均不公布，这意味着美联储官员在年内最后 一次会议前可能将同时失去就业、通胀两项关键经济数据，不得不促使美联储谨慎控制降 息节奏。受此影响，美联储12月降息概率骤降，美股、比特币等资产全线下挫，流动性紧 缩下贵金属价格亦承压下挫。但随着恐慌指数回升，上周五晚间，美联储官员安抚市场， 称预计未来还会进一步降息，且有官员表态预计不久美联储将重新扩表，美联储降息预期 再度回升，流动性紧缩风险有所缓和，贵金属跌幅收窄。（2）俄罗斯央行开始抛售实物 黄金，一度对金价 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that 2025 is expected to be a pivotal year for foreign capital reassessing Chinese assets, driven by the erosion of dollar credit and the valuation advantages of Chinese tech stocks [1][5]. - Foreign capital inflow into Chinese stocks reached its highest level in four years, with a total of $50.6 billion from January to October 2023, significantly higher than the $11.4 billion in 2024 [5]. - The Chinese stock market's performance has been bolstered by the AI boom, particularly due to breakthroughs in large models, leading to a shift in foreign investors' perceptions of Chinese tech [5][6]. Group 2 - The dollar is facing long-term downward pressure due to rising domestic policy uncertainty and high fiscal deficits in the U.S., which are impacting its global standing [2][3]. - The U.S. Treasury bond yields are expected to stabilize around 4% to 5%, challenging the traditional view of U.S. bonds as risk-free assets [3]. - The overall valuation of U.S. stocks is at a global high, and any reduction in foreign capital inflow due to declining dollar credit could compress these valuations [3][4]. Group 3 - The financial sector is expected to present medium to long-term investment opportunities, with banks showing signs of improved profitability and stable dividend yields above 5% [7]. - The MSCI China Index is projected to see earnings growth exceeding 10% in 2026, indicating potential for upward movement driven by earnings rather than just valuation [6][7]. - The Chinese stock market's overall valuation has returned to the average level of the past 15 years, remaining relatively reasonable compared to other emerging markets [6][7].

Core Insights - The article discusses the expected fluctuations of the RMB exchange rate in 2025 and 2026, highlighting the central bank's effective liquidity management that helps mitigate risks [1] Group 1: 2025 RMB Exchange Rate Outlook - The appreciation of the RMB in 2025 is driven by two main factors: cracks in USD credit and the Federal Reserve's easing measures. However, the appreciation expectation is not straightforward, with significant volatility observed [2] - In April 2025, trade frictions led to a depreciation expectation exceeding 7.5, while the onset of the Fed's rate cut cycle in September brought the appreciation expectation closer to 7.0. This reflects investor uncertainty in a still fragile internal economic environment [2] - A key factor supporting the RMB's appreciation is the reversal of foreign trade enterprises' willingness to settle in RMB. The weakening belief in a strong USD has led to a historic level of cross-border capital inflow, primarily driven by these enterprises [3] Group 2: Central Bank's Management and Policy - The central bank's management of exchange rate controls is described as "brilliant," effectively balancing the optimism of currency holders and the hesitance of currency exchangers. This includes lowering swap market premiums to manage foreign capital inflow and guiding domestic expectations through the central parity rate [4] - The central bank aims to align domestic and foreign pricing expectations, achieving a "three-price unification" where both domestic and foreign asset pricing converge towards the central bank's expectations [4] Group 3: 2026 RMB Exchange Rate Expectations - The article raises the question of whether global easing will continue into 2026, noting a significant "K-shaped" economic divergence in the U.S. This divergence affects high-net-worth individuals and new borrowers differently, impacting credit expansion and overall economic conditions [5] - The central bank's willingness to allow the RMB to break the 7.0 mark is questioned, with indications that it is managing the pace of appreciation through historical low swap premiums. The central bank's focus appears to be on fundamental factors rather than credit-driven factors [6] - The future decoupling of the RMB exchange rate from the USD index is anticipated, with both fundamental and policy support for the RMB to break the 7.0 level. However, the article emphasizes that fundamental changes will be the core variable supporting long-term RMB strength [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shifting power dynamics between the U.S. presidency and the Federal Reserve, highlighting how Trump's actions and rhetoric have raised concerns about the independence of the Fed and the stability of the U.S. dollar's creditworthiness [1][10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Role and Independence - The Federal Reserve is described as a powerful institution that influences both the U.S. economy and global financial markets, with its decisions impacting over $70 trillion in financial assets [2]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for maintaining confidence in the U.S. dollar, as it prevents monetary policy from being swayed by short-term political interests [3][5]. - Trump's public criticism of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reflects a significant challenge to this independence, as he seeks to influence monetary policy to benefit his political agenda [4][10]. Group 2: Political and Economic Implications - Trump's desire for low interest rates and loose monetary policy is aimed at boosting the stock market and economic growth to enhance his political standing, which conflicts with Powell's focus on inflation and employment [4][8]. - The potential for Trump to replace Powell raises alarms about the Fed becoming a political tool, which could undermine the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency [4][10]. - The article warns that if the Fed loses its independence, it could lead to a loss of trust in the U.S. financial system, resulting in a significant shift in global capital flows and a potential financial crisis [9][10]. Group 3: Global Financial Landscape - The ongoing debate about the Fed's independence has led to increased volatility in the dollar index and a trend towards "de-dollarization" among various economies, indicating a growing distrust in the U.S. financial system [9][10]. - The article emphasizes that the stability of the global financial system relies on the credibility of the U.S. dollar, which is threatened by political interference in monetary policy [10][12]. - Countries are increasingly exploring alternatives to the dollar, which could reshape the global financial landscape and reduce reliance on U.S. monetary policy [13][14].