Group 1: Economic Indicators - In September, China's exports increased by 8.3% year-on-year, benefiting from a low base effect and strong external demand, despite a 27.0% decline in exports to the US [2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in September fell by 0.3% year-on-year, while the core CPI rose by 1.0%, indicating a relatively positive signal driven by rising jewelry prices [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, primarily due to low base effects [3] Group 2: Market Conditions - The funding environment is gradually becoming looser, with key rates such as DR001 and DR007 at approximately 1.31% and 1.43% respectively, indicating a balanced but slightly relaxed liquidity situation [4] - The People's Bank of China has injected a net liquidity of 400 billion yuan through reverse repos, reflecting a supportive stance towards market liquidity [4] - Despite a balanced liquidity outlook, expectations for further monetary easing are weak, limiting the potential for further declines in funding costs [4] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Risks - Recent volatility in domestic asset prices is attributed to ongoing uncertainties from US-China trade tensions, although market sentiment has shifted towards optimism compared to April [5] - The necessity for moderate allocation of certain-term government bonds remains to hedge against macroeconomic uncertainties [5] - Overall, holiday consumption data showed moderate growth, external demand remains resilient, and domestic inflation is low, providing support for the bond market [5]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market showed slight weakness on October 15, with government bond futures mostly declining and interbank bond yields rising slightly, indicating a mixed response to inflation data and ongoing monetary policy considerations [1][2]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed mostly lower, with the 30-year main contract down 0.14% at 114.58, the 10-year main contract down 0.06% at 108.130, and the 5-year main contract down 0.03% at 105.73 [2]. - The average yield on interbank major bonds increased by approximately 0.5 basis points, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to 1.7575% [2]. - The China Convertible Bond Index rose by 0.49% to 482.17 points, with notable gainers including Yong02 Convertible Bond and Zhongchong Convertible Bond, which increased by 8.46% and 6.40% respectively [2]. International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields collectively fell, with the 10-year yield down 2.5 basis points to 4.028% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields showed mixed results, while in the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds in France, Germany, Italy, and Spain all decreased [4]. Primary Market - The Ministry of Finance reported weighted average winning yields for 91-day and 182-day government bonds at 1.2634% and 1.3487%, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 2.37 and 2.17 [5]. Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 435 billion yuan reverse repo operation on October 15, maintaining a stable liquidity environment with a fixed rate of 1.40% [6]. - The central bank plans to conduct a 600 billion yuan buyout reverse repo operation with a 6-month term to ensure ample liquidity in the banking system [6]. Economic Indicators - In September, the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.3% year-on-year, indicating a stable consumption market [8]. Institutional Perspectives - Institutions like Dongfang Jincheng and Huachuang Securities noted that the central bank's actions to inject medium-term liquidity through reverse repos are aimed at stabilizing the funding environment and supporting government bond issuance [9]. - CITIC Securities highlighted a potential increase in liquidity due to the natural maturity of previously purchased government bonds, suggesting a gradual reintroduction of government bond trading [9].

宏观面：（1）宏观政策：2025年8月1日，财政部与税务总局发布公告称，自2025年8月8日起，对在该日及以后新 发行的国债、地方政府债券和金融债券的利息收入将恢复征收增值税。此前已发行的上述债券（包括8月8日后续 发行的部分）仍享受免征增值税政策，直至到期；关税方面，中美发布斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明，自2025年8 月12日起再次暂停实施24%的关税90天；国务院第九次全体会议强调，采取有力措施巩固房地产市场止跌回稳态势， 培育壮大服务消费，加力扩大有效投资；9月10日，财政部长明确表示，"持续发力、适时加力实施更加积极有为 的宏观政策"；发改委也表示"不断释放内需潜力" 和 "推进重点行业产能治理"；10月8 日，美方将多家中国实体 列入出口管制清单并征收特别港务费，10月10 日，交通运输部发布关于对美船舶收取船舶特别港务费的公告。（2） 通胀：8月CPI同比下降0.4%。 资金面：（3）财政：8月末，M2同比增长8.8%，M1同比回升至6%，剪刀差连续收窄，显示资金活性增强，企业经 营活力改善。前八个月人民币贷款增加13.46万亿元，社融增量累计26.56万亿元，政府债券融资占比高企，反映企 业中长 ...

Core Points - The People's Bank of China conducted a 910 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous level, resulting in a net injection of 910 billion yuan into the market [1][12] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed slight fluctuations, with the 7-day and 14-day rates declining [1][2] - The overall funding environment is described as balanced and slightly loose, with various rates for overnight and term deposits showing a downward trend [9][10] Summary by Category Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China is set to conduct a 600 billion yuan buyout reverse repurchase operation on October 15, 2025, with a term of 6 months [12] Interest Rates - The overnight Shibor increased by 0.10 basis points to 1.3150%, while the 7-day Shibor decreased by 2.40 basis points to 1.4230%, and the 14-day Shibor decreased by 2.10 basis points to 1.4450% [1][2] - In the interbank pledged repo market, most rates showed slight declines, with the weighted average rates for overnight and 7-day repos at 1.3141% and 1.4314%, respectively [4] Market Sentiment - The funding market is characterized by a generally loose atmosphere, with overnight rates for deposits showing a downward trend, indicating a preference for liquidity among banks [9] - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit reached 261.89 billion yuan on October 14, with trading sentiment described as moderate [10]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market experienced significant fluctuations on October 14, with a net injection of 91 billion yuan in the open market, indicating a supportive funding environment despite ongoing trade tensions and cautious market sentiment [1][5]. Market Performance - Government bond futures opened lower but closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.34% and the 10-year main contract increasing by 0.11% [2]. - The yield curve for major interbank bonds shifted downward in the afternoon, with the 10-year government bond yield decreasing by 1 basis point to 1.752% [2]. Overseas Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 10-year yield dropping by 6.37 basis points to 4.053% [3]. - In the Eurozone, the 10-year French bond yield decreased by 1 basis point to 3.467%, while the German bond yield fell by 0.8 basis points to 2.635% [3]. Primary Market Activity - The Ministry of Finance's 1-year fixed-rate bond had a weighted average yield of 1.38%, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.22 [4]. - The China Development Bank's 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year financial bonds had respective yields of 1.6085%, 1.7564%, and 2.0008%, with bid-to-cover ratios of 2.96, 4.03, and 4.94 [4]. Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 910 billion yuan reverse repo operation at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 910 billion yuan for the day [5]. - Shibor rates showed mixed performance, with the overnight rate rising slightly while the 7-day and 14-day rates fell, indicating a divergence in short-term funding conditions [5]. Institutional Insights - Institutions expect a neutral to slightly bullish bond market in October, with potential for a smoother decline post-December [6]. - Credit spreads are anticipated to remain volatile, with a focus on short to medium-term credit bonds as the market adjusts to ongoing economic conditions [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - From October 9 - 11, 2025, the central bank significantly net - withdrew funds through short - term reverse repurchases, and the money market generally loosened. The net payment scale of government bonds decreased, most of the maturity yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit declined, and the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market slightly increased. - Looking ahead to the money market trend in October, it is expected to be seasonally loose at the beginning of the quarter. Although it is expected to be generally loose overall, there will be certain volatility pressure at the end of the month due to the overlap of tax payment and cross - month effects [2][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Money Market - **Reverse Repurchase Operations**: From October 9 - 11, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 15263 billion yuan. To cope with the pressure of concentrated maturity of funds, the central bank carried out a 3 - month (3M) outright reverse repurchase operation of 11000 billion yuan on October 9, with a net investment of 3000 billion yuan this month. From October 13 - 17, 7 - day reverse repurchases worth 10210 billion yuan and treasury cash deposits worth 1500 billion yuan will mature [7]. - **Money Market Conditions**: From October 9 - 11, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 decreased by 3.0 and 10.5 basis points respectively compared with September 29 - 30; the average values of DR007 and R007 decreased by 7.1 and 26.3 basis points respectively. The money market generally loosened. It is expected to be generally loose in October, but with certain volatility pressure at the end of the month [8]. - **Government Bond Net Payment**: From October 9 - 11, 2025, the net payment scale of government bonds was about 7 billion yuan, about 2114 billion yuan less than that from September 29 - 30. From October 13 - 19, the net payment scale of government bonds is expected to be 852 billion yuan [9]. 3.2 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - **Maturity Yields**: As of October 11, 2025, the 1 - month (1M) and 1 - year (1Y) inter - bank certificate of deposit maturity yields decreased by 0.3 and 1.5 basis points respectively compared with September 30, while the 3 - month (3M) yield increased by 4.1 basis points [10]. - **Net Financing Amount**: From October 9 - 11, 2025, the net financing amount of inter - bank certificates of deposit was about 823 billion yuan, turning positive from - 1316 billion yuan from September 29 - 30. The maturity repayment amount from October 13 - 19 is expected to be 5049 billion yuan, and the maturity amount in October is expected to be 1.84 trillion yuan, significantly lower than that in September [10]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior - **Inter - bank Bond Market Leverage Ratio**: From October 9 - 11, 2025, the average calculated leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.61%, slightly higher than the average of 107.57% from September 29 - 30 [11]. - **Duration of Pure Bond Funds**: On October 10, 2025, the median duration (MA5) of medium - and long - term interest - rate style pure bond funds increased by 0.67 years week - on - week, reaching the 76.8% quantile since the beginning of 2022; the median duration (MA5) of short - term interest - rate style pure bond funds increased by 0.18 years week - on - week, reaching the 28.1% quantile since the beginning of 2022 [11].

Core Points - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 600 billion yuan six-month reverse repurchase operation scheduled for October 15, 2025, using a fixed quantity and interest rate bidding method [1] - On the same day, the PBOC conducted a 910 billion yuan seven-day reverse repurchase operation at an interest rate of 1.40% [4] - The liquidity in the financial market showed mixed trends, with the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) for overnight remaining stable at 1.314% and the seven-day Shibor rising by 4.4 basis points to 1.447% [4] - A report from Huaxi Securities indicated that liquidity is expected to remain stable before the tax period, but the end of October may see increased liquidity pressure due to the overlap of the tax period and month-end [1][4] Summary by Category Monetary Policy - The PBOC will conduct a 600 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a six-month term on October 15, 2025, using a fixed quantity and interest rate bidding method [1] - A 910 billion yuan seven-day reverse repurchase operation was conducted on October 14, 2025, at an interest rate of 1.40% [4] Financial Market Trends - The financial market experienced mixed trends, with the overnight Shibor stable at 1.314% and the seven-day Shibor increasing to 1.447% [4] - The weighted average rate of DR007 rose to 1.4495% by the end of trading, while the one-day treasury reverse repurchase rate decreased to 1.416% [4] Liquidity Outlook - Huaxi Securities reported that liquidity is expected to remain stable before the tax period, but the end of October may present challenges due to the overlap of the tax period and month-end [1][4]

Group 1 - The liquidity perspective indicates that after the National Day holiday, the funding environment has returned to a loose state, with overnight funding rates dropping below 7DOMO and 7-day funding rates around 7DOMO, alleviating pressure on banks' liabilities [1][9] - The report anticipates that the government bond supply pressure in the fourth quarter will be manageable, with limited government bond issuance currently affecting the funding environment [1][9] - The upcoming tax period is expected to maintain a comfortable funding state before its arrival, with overall pressure from the upcoming reverse repos being manageable due to the five working days for operations [1][9] Group 2 - As of October 19, the issuance progress of local government bonds shows that cumulative replacement bonds issued reached 19,900 billion yuan, achieving 99.50% progress; new general bonds issued totaled 6,717 billion yuan, achieving 83.97% progress; and new special bonds issued reached 36,973 billion yuan, achieving 84.03% progress [2][10] - The report notes that the issuance of local bonds has sharply decreased post-National Day, leading to a decline in secondary market transactions, with significant drops in net purchases by insurance and participation from funds in the 7-10 year segment [3][11] - The fourth quarter local bond issuance plan is set at 8,516 billion yuan, with expectations of around 10,000 billion yuan in market neutral expectations, although no incremental policy reserves have been observed [2][11] Group 3 - The report highlights opportunities in local bonds from three perspectives: the implied tax rates for 5Y and 10Y bonds remain around 5%, while most 20Y and 30Y bonds are below 4% [3][12] - The report suggests monitoring specific bonds with high implied tax rates, such as the 25 Tianjin bond with an implied tax rate of 12.21%, despite its small issuance size [3][12] - The report also notes that the yield spread between local bonds and government bonds has widened, particularly in the 7Y and 10Y segments, indicating a need to pay attention to risks associated with long-duration bonds [3][12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by the tariff black - swan market, the risk appetite declined, impacting the bond market. The continuous expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the increasing global trade uncertainty added to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market oscillated between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing, and short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [3]. 3. Summary by Catalog I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) had a 0.00% month - on - month change and - 0.40% year - on - year change; China's PPI (monthly) had a 0.00% month - on - month change and - 2.90% year - on - year change [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: Social financing scale was 433.66 trillion yuan, with an increase of 2.40 trillion yuan (0.56%); M2 year - on - year was 8.80%, with no change; Manufacturing PMI was 49.80%, with a 0.40% (0.81%) increase [9]. - Daily economic indicators: The US Dollar Index was 99.24, up 0.40 (0.40%); USD/CNH (off - shore) was 7.1370, down 0.005 (- 0.07%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.45, up 0.04 (3.14%); DR007 was 1.45, up 0.06 (3.94%); R007 was 1.53, up 0.02 (1.49%); AAA - rated 3 - month inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.59, up 0.01 (0.82%); AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, up 0.00 (0.82%) [9]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market No specific content other than referring to relevant figures (such as the closing price trend of the main continuous contract of treasury bond futures, the price change rates of various treasury bond futures varieties, etc.) is provided. The data sources for these figures are Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [11][13][15]. III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity The section mainly shows relevant figures including Shibor rate trend, the maturity yield trend of AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit, the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and local government bond issuance. The data sources are Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [24]. IV. Spread Overview The section presents figures about the inter - period spread trend of various treasury bond futures varieties and the term spread of spot bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures. The data sources are Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [27][28][29]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures The section includes figures such as the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract. The data sources are Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [33][38][44]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures The section contains figures like the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract. The data sources are Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [46][50][52]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures The section shows figures including the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract. The data sources are Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [53][55][56]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures The section presents figures such as the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract. The data sources are Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [60][62][66]. Strategies - Unilateral strategy: With the decline of repurchase rates and the oscillation of treasury bond futures prices, a cautious and bullish stance is recommended for the 2512 contract [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Pay attention to the decline of the basis of TF2509 [5]. - Hedging strategy: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - position holders can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [5].

Market Performance - Government bond futures opened high but closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.37%, initially up by 0.70%. The 10-year main contract increased by 0.10%, initially up by 0.25%. The 5-year main contract rose by 0.03%, and the 2-year main contract increased by 0.02% [1] - Major interest rate bonds in the interbank market saw a rebound in yields, with the 10-year policy bank bond "25 Guokai 15" yield rising by 1.7 basis points to 1.9430%, the 10-year government bond "25 Fuxi Guojia 11" yield up by 1.6 basis points to 1.7590%, and the 30-year government bond "25 Super Long Special Government Bond 02" yield increasing by 3 basis points to 2.1140% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 137.8 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation on October 13, with a fixed rate of 1.40% and a full bid amount of 137.8 billion yuan. There were no reverse repos maturing that day, resulting in a net injection of 137.8 billion yuan [2] - The interbank market maintained a loose funding condition, with overnight repo rates for deposit institutions hovering around 1.30%. Non-bank institutions borrowed overnight using credit bonds as collateral, with rates dropping to the 1.46%-1.48% range [2] - There is a certain demand for one-year interbank certificates of deposit at 1.66% from national and major joint-stock banks, with the latest transaction rates in the secondary market for the same term at 1.655%-1.66%, slightly down from the previous day [2] News Developments - According to customs data, China's exports in September (in RMB terms) grew by 8.4% year-on-year, up from a previous increase of 4.8%. Imports rose by 7.5%, compared to a prior increase of 1.7%. The trade surplus was 645.47 billion yuan, down from 732.68 billion yuan [3] - In USD terms, China's September exports increased by 8.3%, up from 4.4% previously, while imports grew by 7.4%, compared to a prior increase of 1.3% [3] - U.S. President Trump hinted at the possibility of canceling new tariffs on China, leading to a rise in U.S. stock index futures. Trump stated on social media not to worry about China, indicating that everything would be fine [3] Operational Recommendations - Recent signals from both China and the U.S. have been relatively mild, leading to a correction in the risk-averse sentiment previously caused by tariff conflicts, which in turn weakened the bond market [4] - The bond market outlook is complex, with attention needed on the implementation of new fund redemption fee regulations, changes in market risk appetite, and potential fluctuations in U.S.-China relations. However, the current loose funding conditions and the normalization of the yield curve limit the extent of long bond declines [4] - If the 10-year government bond yield rises above 1.8%, there may be a recovery in allocation value. Short-term treasury bonds are expected to continue fluctuating within a range, with T2512 likely maintaining a range of 107.4-108.3, suggesting a wait-and-see approach for potential adjustments [4]