Market Overview - A-shares showed a rebound after hitting a low, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3889.35 points, up 0.41%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 0.84% [1][15] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached approximately 2.1 trillion, an increase of over 200 billion from the previous day, indicating a recovery in trading sentiment [1][15] - The semiconductor equipment and electric grid sectors led the gains, while sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and coal showed weaker performance [1][15] Economic Policy Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 addressed various topics including domestic demand, innovation, anti-involution, and opening up to the outside world [2][16] - The "anti-involution + technological innovation" sectors are expected to benefit from policy support and logical backing, potentially outperforming in the second phase of the bull market [2][16] - The conference emphasized the importance of domestic demand and the need to eliminate unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector to unleash service consumption potential [2][16] Investment Strategy - The market is expected to continue its upward potential, supported by anticipated incremental policies aimed at boosting consumption, industrial investment, and technological innovation [3][18] - The current market fluctuations are seen as a rebalancing of funds between short-term data and long-term trends, with expectations of a recovery in corporate profits and economic signals [3][18] - A flexible investment strategy combining core positions with satellite rotation is recommended, focusing on ETFs that capture long-term investment opportunities in the Chinese economy [6][20] Sector Performance - The securities sector is experiencing optimism due to the potential for mergers and acquisitions among major brokerages, which could enhance profitability and market expectations [7][22] - The approval of licenses for stablecoin trading by brokerages opens new business opportunities, potentially increasing revenue from transaction fees and attracting new clients [8][23] - The performance of the securities sector is closely tied to market activity, with increased trading volumes likely to boost brokerage revenues across various business lines [7][22] Gold Market Dynamics - The gold market is supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, with gold being favored as a "store of value" amid inflation and stagnation concerns in the U.S. economy [11][25] - The recent approval of stablecoin trading licenses is expected to create new growth avenues for brokerages, enhancing their performance and market valuation [8][23] - Investors are advised to monitor gold ETFs as they align with the long-term bullish outlook for gold prices, driven by systemic risks and economic conditions [12][26]

核心观点： 证券研究报告｜事件点评 2025 年 12 月 12 日 宏观政策基调延续 稳中求进中做好提质增效 ——2025 年中央经济工作会议解读 事件简述： 2025 年 12 月 11 日，中央经济工作会议在召开，会议总结了 2025 年的 经济工作，分析了当前经济形势，部署了 2026 年经济工作。继 12 月 8 日中央政治局会议分析研究 2026 年经济工作，提出明年八大重点任务 后，中央经济工作会议在此基础上进一步细化重点任务的政策安排和目 标，并在财政货币政策、政策关键着力点等方面提出具体部署。 具体内容 请仔细阅读报告最后的重要法律申明 第 1 页 共 6 页 大同证券研究中心 分析师：景剑文 执业证书编号： S0770523090001 邮箱： jingjw@dtsbc.com.cn 地址：山西太原长治路 请仔细阅读报告最后的重要法律申明 第 2 页 共 6 页 111 号山西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址： http://www.dtsbc.co m.cn "稳中求进"总基调不变，挖掘经济潜能做好经济提质增效。本次 会议主要根据中央政治局会议研究内容进行细化，相关任务目标具 有连 ...

Economic Policy Insights - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the structural contradiction of "strong supply and weak demand," marking a shift from the previous focus on "insufficient demand" [5] - The conference highlighted the importance of stabilizing real estate markets through targeted policies, indicating a transition to a new phase of "controlling increment, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply" [6] - A focus on increasing urban and rural residents' income was introduced, with plans for a "special action to boost consumption" and a "rural residents' income increase plan" [6] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The conference reiterated the commitment to "continue implementing a more proactive fiscal policy" and "maintain necessary levels of deficit and debt," suggesting a stable deficit rate for the upcoming year [6] - Monetary policy will prioritize "promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery," allowing for potential reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates [6] Investment and Infrastructure - Plans to stabilize investment include increasing the scale of central budget investments and optimizing the implementation of key projects to stimulate private investment [6] - The report suggests that infrastructure and manufacturing investments will receive support through new policy financial tools and local government bonds [6] Risk Management - The focus on local government debt risk has intensified, with specific measures to "actively and orderly resolve local government debt risks" and prevent the creation of new hidden debts [6] - Risks include potential underperformance in macroeconomic recovery, escalating geopolitical risks, and the effectiveness of related industrial policies [6]

Group 1 - The central economic work conference emphasizes a continuation of proactive macro policies, including more active fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, to support economic recovery and stabilize the capital market [1] - The focus for 2026 is on improving quality and efficiency, with core directions being economic structure adjustment, industrial structure optimization, and technological self-reliance, reinforcing the long-term logic of "technology growth" in the A-share market [1] - The external environment is improving with resilient overseas economies and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, while domestic "dual easing" policies are likely to continue, leading to a weak recovery in the economy [1] Group 2 - The technology growth sector remains the core focus for medium to long-term investment, with the AI industry chain expected to shift from hardware to application, particularly in media, computing, and internet sectors [2] - Four specific investment themes are highlighted: high dividend assets in white goods, banks, and telecoms; improvement in coal, steel, and solar industries driven by "anti-involution" policies; new consumption areas like health and pet economy alongside travel and aviation; and resource sectors benefiting from rising commodity prices [2] - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend in 2026, supported by policies, improved internal and external environments, and structural optimization, with a focus on technology growth and advantageous sectors [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the ongoing valuation bull market and spring rally, driven by a dual focus on technology and cyclical sectors, with expectations for continued relative profitability and economic advantages in technology [2][5] - The total trading volume in the two markets reached 2.09 trillion yuan, an increase of 235.1 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with 2,612 stocks rising and 2,683 falling [5] - The top three sectors for net capital inflow were machinery equipment, non-ferrous metals, and public utilities, indicating strong investor interest in these areas [5] Group 2 - Huabao Fund has launched three major broad-based ETFs tracking the CSI A-series indices, providing investors with diverse options to invest in China [2][5] - The A50 ETF focuses on the top 50 core leading companies, while the A100 ETF encompasses the top 100 industry leaders, and the A500 ETF targets the top 500 companies in the A-share market [2][5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Central Economic Work Conference reflects a more confident assessment of the economic situation compared to previous years, indicating a shift in tone regarding external and internal challenges [1][2] - The fiscal policy is characterized by greater determination, with a focus on maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and debt levels, suggesting limited changes in fiscal space for the coming year [1][3] - Monetary policy emphasizes flexibility and efficiency, reiterating the importance of "dual cuts" (reducing reserve requirements and interest rates) as a response to economic conditions [2][3] Group 2 - The conference highlights the importance of expanding domestic demand, with a focus on optimizing consumption policies and releasing the potential of service consumption [2][3] - Investment is expected to stabilize after experiencing negative growth, with plans to increase central budget investments and optimize local government special bonds [3][4] - Innovation is driven by the emphasis on "Artificial Intelligence+", indicating its critical role in the competitive landscape and the need for supportive regulations [3][4] Group 3 - The conference stresses the need to combat "involution" and promote a unified market, which is expected to enhance corporate profitability and drive technological innovation [4] - Real estate is reintroduced as a focus area, with an emphasis on stabilizing the market and addressing local government debt risks, indicating potential new policies in this sector [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the importance of addressing "involution" competition and identified key progress in this area, highlighting potential investment opportunities in various sectors [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook and Industry Performance - The "anti-involution" theme has gained traction since late June, with all related industries showing positive returns since July, although performance varies across sectors [1] - The best-performing sectors include lithium batteries and photovoltaics, driven by both anti-involution benefits and improved demand, particularly in domestic and international energy storage [1] - Sectors like steel have shown initial strong performance but have weakened recently due to declining real estate investment and demand [1] - The express delivery and pig farming sectors have underperformed, with weak growth since July and negative fluctuations in the past month [1] Group 2: Industrial Price Trends - Since July, industrial prices have not uniformly increased; notable performers include photovoltaics, lithium carbonate, and thermal coal, while prices for pork and cement have fallen below July levels due to weak demand [2] - The photovoltaic sector has stabilized at high prices, while lithium carbonate has seen accelerated price increases since late October [2] - The coal sector has shown improvement, while other industries require ongoing observation for changes [2] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Future investment opportunities should be analyzed from three perspectives: current policy support, market structure, and demand side dynamics [2][3] - The photovoltaic and coal industries currently receive the most significant policy support, with strong overall promotion intentions [3] - Industries with lower private capacity and higher concentration are more likely to manage supply-side capacity control effectively [3] - The lithium battery sector may benefit from rising domestic and international energy storage demand, while the chemical industry, as a supplier of lithium battery materials, is also worth monitoring [3] Group 4: Long-term Market Trends - The "anti-involution" trend is expected to remain a long-term market theme, with optimistic prospects for sectors like lithium batteries, coal, and photovoltaics, which benefit from both policy and demand [3] - Some industries have already experienced significant stock price increases, which may lead to greater volatility as year-end approaches [3]

宏观经济分析报告 5 内外政策落地，预期逐步对齐 ――宏观经济周报 证券分析师 周喜[Table_IndInvest] 022-28451972 zhouxi@bhzq.com 宋亦威[Table_IndInvest] SAC NO：S1150514080001 022-23861608 songyw@bhzq.com 严佩佩 SAC NO：S1150520110001 022-23839070 yanpp@bhzq.com 研究助理 靳沛[Table_IndInvest] 芃 SAC NO：S1150124030005 022-23839160 jinpp@bhzq.com 分析师：周喜 SAC NO：S1150511010017 2025 年 12 月 12 日 就外围环境而言，美国方面，最新周度初请失业金人数攀升至四季度以来高 位，虽然其有可能受季节性因素扰动偏高，但若结合 JOLTS 显示的招聘人 数减少、裁员人数增多以及劳动力成本增长低于预期等多维度数据来看，劳 动力市场仍在趋势性放缓。延后发布的 9 月 PCE 物价指数同比增速上升但 符合预期且核心分项自今年二季度以来首次出现下降。同时，实际个人 ...

Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference held in Beijing from December 10 to 11 acknowledged the achievements of the past year and the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, proposing five essential points for economic work under new circumstances, which will serve as the ideological foundation for future policies [1][3] Group 1: Economic Policy Direction - The current economic challenges are characterized as developmental and transitional issues, leading to a policy approach that maintains strategic stability, focusing more on support rather than drastic measures [1][3] - Fiscal policy language has become more moderate, emphasizing reform, while monetary policy remains moderately accommodative, with a new focus on reasonable price recovery. The expression regarding reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cuts has shifted from "timely" to "flexibly and efficiently utilizing various policy tools," highlighting the importance of marginal policy effects [1][3] Group 2: Demand and Supply Side Focus - The conference emphasizes a demand-driven approach, with a primary focus on domestic demand and the construction of a robust domestic market. There is a commitment to expand the supply of quality goods and services, along with an optimization of the "two new" policy implementation, which will involve monitoring the scale and scope of subsidies [2][4] - In terms of investment, the conference aims to stabilize and reverse the downward trend, with future policies likely to balance investment stabilization and "anti-involution" efforts structurally [2][4] - The real estate sector is characterized by a stabilizing approach, with specific measures including controlling new supply, reducing inventory, and enhancing supply quality, reflecting a mindset focused on revitalizing existing assets and policy support [2][4] Group 3: Innovation and Reform - The conference prioritizes innovation-driven growth and the cultivation of new momentum as the second key focus for the coming year, shifting from merely expanding industries to emphasizing institutional development [2][4] - Regarding reforms, the conference announced plans to establish a national unified market construction regulation and to address "involutionary" competition more concretely than previous statements, indicating a stronger commitment to regulating disorderly competition among enterprises [2][4] Group 4: Risk Management - The content related to risk prevention has been deprioritized, suggesting that the most urgent phase of systemic risk prevention may have passed. However, risk management remains a bottom line, with an emphasis on urging local governments to actively manage their debts [5]

形势研判更有信心、宏观政策更有定力，关键是结合国际经贸斗争形势把握国内经济工作 的重心和政策节奏。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/赵宏鹤 货币政策再提"双降"。 货币政策也补充了一些细节，例如提出"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工 具"，再提"双降"。去年会议明确提出要"适时降准降息"，但央行没有急于在年底年初落地，直到今年 4·25政治局会议再提"适时降准降息"，适逢中美关税摩擦处于高峰，央行于5月7日宣布"双降"。 "灵 活高效" 比"适时"的时效性要求更低，货币政策的定位依然是应对性和配合性。除"双降"外，多种政 策工具也包括国债买卖，结构性定向降息。 扩大内需的执牛耳者。 具体工作方面，"坚持内需主导"为"八大坚持"之首。消费政策的重心在优化结 构和服务消费，对"两新"要求为"优化政策实施"，对比去年则为"加力扩围实施"，另外又提出"释放服 务消费潜力"，表明服务消费有望接棒商品消费成为明年增量。 投资"止跌回稳"的要求不常见 ，背景是今年下半年以来固定资产投资陷入历史少见的负增长，虽然可 能与数据"挤水分"有关，也反映出内生动能和资金来源不足。明年的资金来源，一方面是"适当增加中 央预算内投资规模"，"优化' ...