Report Summary for Polyolefins 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The post - holiday inventory pressure of polyolefins remains significant. The supply side has long - term supply pressure, and the demand side lacks highlights. The upside space of the 01 contract is limited. PE's supply pressure is prominent due to increased domestic production and overseas destocking. PP's valuation has been repaired, and attention should be paid to the restart rhythm of devices and new device production pressure in October [2]. 3. Key Points from Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On October 14, compared with the 13th, L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 futures prices all declined, with L2601 down 0.93%, L2509 down 1.05%, PP2601 down 1.36%, and PP2509 down 0.98%. The spread between L2509 - 2601 decreased by 10.23%, while the spread between PP2509 - 2601 increased by 47.17%. Spot prices of some products also changed, such as the 0.31% increase in East China PP fiber spot and the 0.86% decrease in North China LDPE film material spot [2]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 27.67% to 48.9 (unit not clearly stated), and social inventory increased by 4.02% to 54.6 million tons. PP enterprise inventory increased by 30.96% to 68.1 million tons, and trader inventory increased by 39.48% to 26.1 (unit not clearly stated) [2]. - **Operating Rate**: PE device operating rate increased by 2.26% to 83.9%, and downstream weighted operating rate increased by 0.52% to 44.4%. PP device operating rate increased by 1.5% to 77.7%, and powder operating rate increased by 5.4% to 39.3% [2]. Report Summary for Benzene - Styrene 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The supply of pure benzene is expected to be loose in October, and the price driver is weak. The supply of styrene is expected to remain high, and the price is still under pressure. For pure benzene, BZ2603 should follow the fluctuations of styrene and oil prices. For styrene, the rebound of EB11 price should be treated as short - selling [5]. 3. Key Points from Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On October 14, compared with the 13th, the prices of most products in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain declined. For example, Brent crude oil (November) decreased by 1.5%, and CFR China benzene decreased by 2.1%. The EB cash flow (non - integrated) decreased by 30.0% [5]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 1.1% to 9.00 million tons, and styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 2.7% to 19.65 million tons [5]. - **Operating Rate**: The Asian pure benzene operating rate increased by 1.4% to 80.1%, and the domestic styrene operating rate decreased by 0.1% to 73.2% [5]. Report Summary for Methanol 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The methanol market has a mixed situation of long and short factors. The 01 contract fluctuates between real - time pressure and future expectations. Attention should be paid to the supply reduction expectation caused by overseas gas restrictions in mid - October, as well as the operation of overseas devices and the situation of Iranian ship sanctions [6]. 3. Key Points from Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On October 14, compared with the 13th, MA2601 decreased by 2.90%, and MA2605 decreased by 2.29%. The MA15 spread increased by 116.67%, and the Taicang basis decreased by 72.22% [6]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 6.08% to 33.94 (unit not clearly stated), port inventory increased by 3.42% to 154.3 million tons, and social inventory increased by 3.89% to 188.3 (unit not clearly stated) [6]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 1.01% to 78%, and the downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate increased by 4.63% to 86.28% [6]. Report Summary for Polyester Industry Chain 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View In the polyester industry chain, PX is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter, and short - term PX is in weak shock. Ethylene glycol is expected to accumulate inventory, and the price is weak. Short - fiber prices are under pressure, and bottle chips are likely to enter the seasonal inventory accumulation channel [8]. 3. Key Points from Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On October 14, compared with the 13th, the prices of most products in the polyester industry chain declined. For example, Brent crude oil (December) decreased by 1.5%, and POY150/48 price decreased by 0.4% [8]. - **Operating Rate**: The coal - based MEG operating rate increased from 74.4% to 78.8%, and the Asian PX operating rate increased by 2.4% to 79.9% [8]. - **Inventory and Forecast**: MEG port inventory increased by 6.7% to 54.1 million tons, and the expected arrival of MEG increased by 27.5% to 10.2 million tons [8]. Report Summary for PVC and Caustic Soda 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The price of caustic soda is expected to be weak in the short - term but has long - term demand support. PVC production pressure has slightly eased, but there is still inventory accumulation pressure, and the short - term disk is expected to continue to be under pressure [9]. 3. Key Points from Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On October 14, compared with the 13th, the prices of some PVC and caustic soda products declined. For example, the East China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price decreased by 0.7%, and the 50% liquid caustic soda converted price in Shandong decreased by 0.8% [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 1.6% to 88.2%, and the PVC total operating rate increased by 6.2% to 80.8%. The operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC decreased, such as the 18.8% decrease in the开工 rate of Longzhong sample profiles [9]. - **Inventory**: The PVC upstream factory inventory increased by 20.5% to 38.4 million tons, and the total PVC social inventory increased by 4.2% to 55.7 million tons [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not clearly defined [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a somewhat bearish trend with limited trading operability) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bearish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Styrene: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bearish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a somewhat bearish trend with limited trading operability) [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a somewhat bearish trend with limited trading operability) [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a somewhat bearish trend with limited trading operability) [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor trading operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - PX: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bearish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor trading operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bearish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor trading operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Glass: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bearish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor trading operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bearish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Propylene: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a somewhat bearish trend with limited trading operability) [1] Report's Core View The chemical industry is generally weak. Various chemical products are facing different challenges such as increased supply pressure, weak demand, and price declines. Each product's market situation is affected by factors like production capacity changes, downstream demand, and cost pressures [2][3][5][6][7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures prices are down. Supply pressure has increased after some major plants in Shandong resumed production, and downstream demand has not improved significantly [2]. - Plastic and polypropylene futures prices are under pressure. New polyethylene plants are planned to start production, and downstream demand for both is weak [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices continue to decline, and the market is affected by high imports and expected demand decline [3]. - Styrene futures prices are down, and downstream purchasing sentiment is not positive [3]. Polyester - PX and PTA prices are falling. PTA supply is expected to increase, and terminal demand is expected to weaken [5]. - Ethylene glycol prices are at the bottom of the range, and there is a supply - contraction expectation due to Sino - US trade tensions [5]. - Short fiber prices are down, but the spot is firm due to limited new capacity and improved downstream demand [5]. - Bottle chip production is increasing inventory, and demand is expected to weaken after the holiday [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures are volatile. The high - import and high - inventory situation has been disrupted, and further changes need to be monitored [6]. - Urea supply is high, and demand is weak. The domestic supply - demand pattern is loose, and the market is likely to remain weak [6]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC prices are likely to be weak. New production capacity is increasing supply, and trade frictions may affect exports [7]. - Caustic soda futures prices are weak. There is a regional supply difference, and the decline in futures prices is expected to be limited [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices are weak. Supply is high, and demand growth is limited [8]. - Glass prices are down. Inventory pressure is high, and the market is in a weak situation [8].

Core Viewpoint - The main point of the article is that the Shanghai gold futures main contract has seen a significant increase, with an intraday rise of 4%, reaching a new high [1]. Group 1 - The Shanghai gold futures main contract has expanded its intraday gains to 4% [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a temporary wait-and-see approach for the rubber industry [1][2][7] Core Viewpoints - The market was volatile this week, and prices softened again during the Friday night session. There is a risk of a new trade war between China and the US, and it is expected that prices will open lower on Monday. Given the intensified macro risks, investors are advised to wait and see [2][3][7] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Review - RU2601 had an opening price of 15,180, a high of 15,480, a low of 15,150, and a closing price of 15,315, with a gain of 1.9%. NR2511 opened at 12,200, reached a high of 12,520, a low of 12,200, and closed at 12,350, up 2.07%. BR2511 opened at 1,1145, had a high of 1,1335, a low of 1,1120, and closed at 1,1220, up 1.08%. During the holiday, the overseas market was relatively flat with a price rebound, but due to the risk of a new China-US trade war over the weekend, rubber prices fell close to the previous low [3] 2. Spot Market Review - The price of 2023 state-owned full latex in Shanghai and Yunnan, including 9% tax, was 14,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from before the holiday. The price of smoked sheet rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 2,130 US dollars/ton, down 40 US dollars/ton from before the holiday. The price of BR9000 in Shanghai was 11,550 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from before the holiday [4] 3. Inventory Situation Review - This week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased. The subtotal inventory decreased by 3,729 tons to 180,630 tons, and the futures inventory decreased by 5,420 tons to 144,390 tons [5] 4. Market Structure - The basis weakened this week as futures prices rose while spot prices fell [6] 5. Forecast and Operation Strategy - The market was volatile this week, and prices softened again during the Friday night session. Thai raw material prices showed mixed trends this week, with smoked sheet and cup lump prices rising and latex prices falling. Tire enterprise operating rates remained low due to the holiday, and among tire enterprise inventories, semi-steel tire inventories decreased while all-steel tire inventories remained unchanged. Given the flat overseas market performance during the holiday and the incomplete recovery of the natural rubber fundamentals due to the holiday, along with the risk of a new China-US trade war, investors are advised to wait and see [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Both short - fiber and bottle - chip markets are driven down by expectations, with processing fees oscillating at high levels [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Short - fiber**: The prices of short - fiber contracts 2511, 2512, and 2601 decreased by 92, 70, and 70 respectively compared to the previous day. The PF11 - 12 spread decreased by 22, while the PF12 - 01 spread remained unchanged. The short - fiber主力基差 increased from 138 to 203. The short - fiber主力持仓量 decreased by 2246 to 183370, and the主力成交量 decreased by 23204 to 93016. The short - fiber华东现货价格 dropped by 5 to 6.365, and the short - fiber产销 rate decreased by 34% to 32% [1] - **Bottle - chip**: The prices of bottle - chip contracts 2511, 2512, and 2601 decreased by 62, 80, and 78 respectively compared to the previous day. The PR11 - 12 spread increased by 18, and the PR12 - 01 spread decreased by 2. The PR主力基差 increased from - 18 to 12. The bottle - chip主力持仓量 increased by 11245 to 24189, and the主力成交量 increased by 29431 to 43984. The bottle - chip华东现货价格 dropped by 50 to 5680, and the bottle - chip华南现货价格 dropped by 55 to 5745 [1] 3.2 Spot News - **Short - fiber**: Due to the resurgence of the Sino - US trade war and a significant drop in crude oil prices, market sentiment turned pessimistic. Most short - fiber factories kept their quotes stable, while a few lowered them by 50. Traders expanded their discounts by 30 - 50 yuan/ton. Downstream buyers were mainly on the sidelines, resulting in scarce transactions. The average sales - to - production ratio was 32% as of 3:00 pm. Some large factories lowered the price of three - dimensional hollow short - fiber by 100 to 7100 yuan/ton with silicon, while others remained stable [1] - **Bottle - chip**: On Friday, polyester bottle - chip factories' export quotes were mostly stable. The negotiation range of mainstream bottle - chip factories in East China was 755 - 775 US dollars/ton FOB Shanghai Port, and in South China, it was 745 - 760 US dollars/ton FOB main ports. On Saturday, some factories lowered their quotes by 20 - 50 yuan. The market was quiet over the weekend, with orders from October to December mostly transacted at 5600 - 5750 yuan/ton ex - factory [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of short - fiber and bottle - chip is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view on the day - session of the main contract futures prices [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market sentiment for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is characterized by strong wait - and - see attitudes, with prices experiencing wide - range fluctuations. Steel procurement is expected to continue, and the steel procurement price is likely to decline, leading to a short - term weak market consolidation [1][3]. 3. Key Points from Different Sections Macro and Industry News - On October 9, 2025, the prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon in various regions decreased, with the 72 FOB price ranging from 1050 - 1070 dollars/ton and the 75 FOB price from 1120 - 1150 dollars/ton. The northern and southern quotes of silicon - manganese 6517 were 5650 - 5750 yuan/ton and 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - In September 2025, the electricity price in Qinghai settled between 0.34 - 0.39 yuan/kWh, a decrease of 1 - 4 cents. After the holiday, steel procurement will continue, and the steel procurement price is expected to decline [1][3]. - According to South African trade statistics, in August 2025, the manganese ore export volume was 2408100 tons, a 16.27% month - on - month decrease and an 8.5% year - on - year increase. The export volume to China was 1774400 tons, an 8.82% month - on - month decrease and a 4.99% year - on - year increase [3]. - A Fujian group's silicon - manganese purchase prices in different regions decreased, with purchase volumes ranging from 400 - 800 tons [3]. Futures and Spot Market Data - **Futures Contracts**: For ferrosilicon 2511, the closing price was 5472 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan; for ferrosilicon 2601, it was 5440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan. For manganese - silicon 2511, the closing price was 5768 yuan/ton, an increase of 26 yuan; for manganese - silicon 2601, it was also 5768 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The ferrosilicon spot price was 5200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2]. - **Price Differences**: The ferrosilicon (spot - 11 futures) was - 272 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan/ton; the manganese - silicon (spot - 01 futures) was - 88 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan/ton [2]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity for ferrosilicon is 0, and for silicomanganese is also 0, indicating a neutral market trend [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a positive investment rating for tin, with a trend strength of 1, indicating a relatively bullish outlook [5]. 2) Core Viewpoint - The price of tin is accelerating upward [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 287,090 yuan, with a daily increase of 4.75%, and the night - session closing price was 287,400 yuan, with a night - session increase of 0.82%. The price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 36,820 dollars, with a daily increase of 1.57%. The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased compared to the previous day, while the trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk decreased slightly and the open interest increased [2]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 5,851 tons, and the inventory of LME Tin was 2,390 tons, a decrease of 115 tons from the previous day. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Tin was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% from the previous day [2]. - **Spot and Price Difference Data**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 284,200 yuan, an increase of 7,000 yuan from the previous day. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 283,600 yuan, an increase of 12,500 yuan from the previous day. The LME tin (spot/three - month) spread was - 57 dollars, an increase of 8 dollars from the previous day [2]. - **Industrial Chain Key Price Data**: The prices of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan and 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi increased by 7,000 yuan compared to the previous day. The prices of 63A and 60A solder bars also increased [2]. Macro and Industry News - China's Ministry of Commerce issued four announcements regarding export controls on rare earths, lithium batteries, and super - hard materials. - The US government shutdown remains unresolved, with the Senate rejecting the appropriation bill seven times. - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics plans to release September CPI data during the government shutdown. - The US provided 20 billion dollars in financial support to Argentina, and the peso rose. - China's National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a notice to regulate price competition. - The Israeli government approved a cease - fire agreement in Gaza. - Microsoft predicts that the shortage of data center supply will continue until 2026. - Altman said that OpenAI will have more major deals after those with Nvidia, Oracle, and AMD [3][4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - Gold is expected to continue hitting new highs, and silver is set to challenge the $50 mark [2][4]. - The rise in the US dollar restricts the upward movement of copper prices [2][9]. - Zinc is showing a slight rebound [2][12]. - The increase in lead inventories limits the price recovery [2][15]. - Tin is accelerating its upward trend [2][17]. - Aluminum is in a range - bound oscillation, alumina is operating weakly, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][22]. - Nickel faces a situation where smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations are in a tug - of - war, and caution is needed regarding news disturbances. Stainless steel prices are oscillating due to the short - term supply - demand and cost game [2][25]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Fundamentals**: For gold, the closing price of SHFE Gold 2512 was 914.32 with a daily increase of 7.24%, and the night - session closing price was 902.28 with a decrease of 1.17%. For silver, the closing price of SHFE Silver 2512 was 11169 with a daily increase of 5.54%, and the night - session closing price was 11078.00 with a decrease of 1.17% [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold and silver both have a trend intensity of 1 [7]. Copper - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the SHFE copper main contract was 86,750 with a daily increase of 4.38%, and the night - session closing price was 86650 with a decrease of 0.12%. The LME copper 3M electronic - disk closing price was 10,777 with an increase of 0.74% [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US macro - economic data is in a vacuum, and investors are concerned about the bubble risk. Freeport declared force majeure at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia [9][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper has a trend intensity of 0 [11]. Zinc - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the SHFE zinc main contract was 22315 with an increase of 2.25%, and the LME zinc 3M electronic - disk closing price was 2994.5 with a decrease of 1.56% [12]. - **News**: The Fed's理事巴尔 emphasized inflation risks and said that interest - rate cuts should be cautious [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc has a trend intensity of 0 [14]. Lead - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the SHFE lead main contract was 17115 with an increase of 1.03%, and the LME lead 3M electronic - disk closing price was 2004.5 with a decrease of 0.02%. The SHFE lead futures inventory increased by 500 tons to 30068 tons [15]. - **News**: The US macro - economic data is in a vacuum, and investors are concerned about the bubble risk [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead has a trend intensity of 0 [15]. Tin - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the SHFE tin main contract was 287,090 with an increase of 4.75%, and the night - session closing price was 287,400 with an increase of 0.82%. The LME tin 3M electronic - disk closing price was 36,820 with an increase of 1.57% [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Multiple macro - economic and industry events were reported, such as China's export controls and the US government shutdown [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin has a trend intensity of 1 [21]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 21090, and the closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract was 2875. The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20615 [22]. - **Comprehensive News**: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics plans to release the September CPI data during the government shutdown [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy all have a trend intensity of 0 [24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the SHFE nickel main contract was 124,480, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,860 [25]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period, and some nickel - iron smelting plants in Indonesia have suspended production due to losses [25][26]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel and stainless steel both have a trend intensity of 0 [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Styrene: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Propylene: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Plastics: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - PVC: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - PX: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - PTA: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Short - fiber: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Glass: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] 2. Core Views - The chemical market shows complex trends with different product performances. Some products are affected by factors such as device maintenance, demand changes, and supply - demand imbalances [2][3][5]. - There are differences in the performance of the spot and futures markets, and the basis has changed in some products [2][3]. - The supply - demand relationship is a key factor affecting prices, with some products facing supply - demand contradictions [2][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene prices continued to rise due to early - started planned maintenance of a device in Dongying during the National Day holiday and the gradual recovery of some downstream demand. However, the futures price fell on the first trading day after the holiday, resulting in a divergence between the spot and futures markets and an enlarged basis [2]. - Polyolefins faced a situation of weak peak - season demand, mainly with rigid procurement. The large - scale release of new production capacity led to a significant increase in domestic output, resulting in prominent supply - demand contradictions. There was inventory accumulation during the holidays, and there was obvious pressure to reduce inventory after the holidays, causing price pressure [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - During the National Day, the oil price dropped, and the pure benzene futures once fell below 5700 yuan/ton in the morning session and then rebounded with the oil price in the afternoon. The spot price in East China was weak, the shipment in Shandong was dull, and Sinopec's listed price remained stable. The device operation rate continued to rise, and the port inventory decreased. However, high imports and expected demand decline continued to drag down the market [3]. - The main contract of styrene futures closed slightly lower, with the overall center of gravity moving down along the 5 - day moving average. The oil price during the holiday was basically the same as before the holiday, having limited impact on the cost of styrene. The demand was weak during the peak season, and the supply increased significantly due to the expansion of production capacity. The inventory of styrene has been significantly higher year - on - year since this year and has shown a trend of oscillating inventory accumulation after June, suppressing the price [3] Polyester - During the holiday, the overseas oil price dropped, causing the prices of PX and PTA to weaken in the morning and then recover with the rebound of the oil price in the afternoon. The operation rate of PX continued to increase. Hengli Dalian's PTA carried out maintenance, and some East China devices reduced their loads due to reasons. In the short term, PX was under pressure, and the PTA link repaired its profit. However, in the future, the PX of Wushi Petrochemical plans to carry out maintenance, and the polyester load is expected to remain stable. The near - term supply - demand pattern of upstream raw materials is okay, and attention should be paid to terminal orders and raw material restocking. In mid - to late October, the downstream demand is expected to gradually weaken, and the supply - demand situation will still be under pressure in the long - term [5]. - The domestic operation rate of ethylene glycol increased significantly, and the port inventory accumulated significantly during the holiday, with a weak fundamental situation. The main futures price once approached the 4100 yuan/ton mark. In the medium - term, with the mass production of new devices and the weakening of future demand, the supply - demand situation will gradually weaken in the fourth quarter, and the 1 - 5 spread is under downward pressure [5]. - The new production capacity of short - fiber is limited, and the operation rate is at a high level. The terminal weaving and dyeing industries increased their operation rates, and the recovery of peak - season demand boosted the short - fiber industry. It is recommended to be long in the short - term, and attention should be paid to downstream orders and short - fiber inventory [5]. - The operation rate of bottle chips increased, but after the long holiday, with the cooling weather, the demand is expected to weaken. Overcapacity is a long - term pressure, and the processing margin is under continuous pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures price dropped significantly. During the holiday, the import volume remained high, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol devices increased. Before the holiday, inland olefin enterprises carried out centralized external procurement, and enterprises had sufficient pending orders, but the order execution was slowed down due to logistics restrictions, and the inventory of production enterprises increased slightly. Imports are expected to remain sufficient, and the port is expected to continue to accumulate inventory. The near - term situation is weak, while the far - month outlook is relatively strong. Attention should be paid to factors such as macro - sentiment and overseas device changes [6]. - During the National Day holiday, urea production enterprises significantly accumulated inventory, with high supply and great pressure on enterprise shipments. Affected by factors such as weather and logistics, the downstream demand was insufficient. Export orders were being shipped, and the port inventory decreased. Although India issued a new round of urea tenders, planning to import 2 million tons, the export window period may have ended, and the short - term boost to the market is limited. The pattern of loose domestic supply - demand of urea is difficult to change, and attention should be paid to possible policy adjustments and their impact on market sentiment [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - The main contract of PVC dropped. During the holiday, the downstream demand weakened, the supply was at a high level, and the inventory increased significantly. After the end of maintenance and the release of new production capacity, the supply pressure was high. The downstream's intention to stock up was not high, and the industry continued the inventory - accumulation mode. The chlor - alkali integration still had profits, and the cost support was not obvious. PVC may show a weak - oscillating trend [7]. - The caustic soda futures dropped significantly. There was still the phenomenon of vehicle detention by downstream buyers, and the purchase price may be further reduced, with the inventory increasing compared with the previous period. There are small - scale maintenance plans for caustic soda in North China and East China in October, and the supply is still under high - pressure operation due to remaining profits. The liquid - caustic soda inventory of alumina plants in Shanxi and Henan is high, and the downstream profit is shrinking, with resistance to high prices. The weak - reality pattern continues, but the strong expectation of possible restocking demand before the future downstream alumina production cannot be falsified. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Soda Ash - Glass - The price of soda ash futures was weakly operating. Before the holiday, the inventory was mainly reduced, and it increased after the holiday. The rigid demand for heavy soda was stable. The production capacity of float glass and photovoltaic glass has been stable recently. The inventory of the photovoltaic industry has changed from decreasing to increasing, and it is expected that the ignition speed will slow down in the future, with limited incremental rigid demand for heavy soda. There are few maintenance plans in October, and the industry currently has little operating pressure, with high - pressure supply. The long - term pattern of supply - demand surplus remains unchanged, and opportunities to short at high prices should be sought, but caution should be exercised near the cost [8]. - The price of glass futures fluctuated narrowly. During the holiday, downstream enterprises had holidays, and the production and sales were insufficient, with seasonal inventory accumulation in the industry. Some regions raised their quoted prices. The daily melting volume was oscillating at a relatively high level. The processing orders improved but were still insufficient on a month - on - month basis, and some engineering orders increased. The situation of whether Shahe will centrally use Zhengkang's deep - processed gas should be continuously tracked. If the production - capacity reduction does not actually occur, the market may return to weak - reality trading, but with the current low valuation, the decline is expected to be limited. A low - buying strategy near the cost can be considered in the future [8]

2025 年 10 月 9 日 燃料油：短线转弱，波动将放大 低硫燃料油：开盘或下跌，外盘现货高低硫价 差继续收窄 梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 liangkefang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 燃料油基本面数据 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | | 日 涨 跌 | 昨日结算价 | 结算价涨跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | FU2510 | 元/晓 | 3.098 | | 3.47% | 3.044 | 0.63% | | | | FU2511 | 元/吨 | 3.007 | | 0. 63% | 2,995 | -2.03% | | | | LU2510 | 元/晓 | 3.450 | | 0. 00% | 3.450 | 0.00% | | | | LU2511 | 元/晓 | 3,394 | | 0.00% | 3.402 | -2. 30% | | | 期货 | | | 昨 ...