生猪日报 | 2025-07-11 另存为PDF 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、7月10日，生猪注册仓单447手； 2、短期现货继续下跌空间有限，且中期看生猪基本面矛盾不大，LH2509合约震 荡调整； 3、主力合约（LH2509）今日增仓2765手，持仓约7万手，最高价14445元/吨， 最低价14205元/吨，收盘于14375元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，上半年较下半 年相比属需求淡季，下半年属需求旺季； 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差或震荡调整； 2）近期生猪现货市场表现为"体重降-猪价稳"的良性关系，说明需求端对猪 价也有一定支撑，猪价难出现明显下跌；且150Kg与标猪价差企稳反弹，也会削 弱散户群体的降重意愿，给猪价以一定支撑； 3）2509合约对价格洼地已几近平水，且短期猪价涨跌幅度都有限，建议暂时观 望。 作者： 史香迎 生猪分析师 期货从业资格：F03086321 交易咨询资格：Z0019355 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端降重缓慢，供应压力 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange's crude oil futures contract 2508 closed down by 1.44%, settling at 512.80 RMB per barrel [1] - The Shanghai gold futures market saw a slight increase, with night trading up by 0.07% [1] - Shanghai silver futures experienced a more significant rise, increasing by 1.45% during night trading [1]

Core Viewpoint - NYMEX natural gas futures for August closed down by 0.09%, settling at $3.3370 per million British thermal units [1] Group 1: Natural Gas - NYMEX August natural gas futures decreased by 0.09% [1] - The closing price for natural gas futures was $3.3370 per million British thermal units [1] Group 2: Other Commodities - NYMEX August gasoline futures closed at $2.1524 per gallon [1] - NYMEX August heating oil futures settled at $2.3835 per gallon [1]

Core Viewpoint - The "insurance + futures" model has been highlighted as a successful case in agricultural risk management, showcasing China's innovative financial practices in the World Economic Forum's white paper on food and water resource innovation in Asia and the Middle East [1][4]. Group 1: Project Overview - The project initiated by Cargill in collaboration with the World Food Programme and local government aims to enhance agricultural productivity and farmer income while promoting sustainable food security [2]. - Over three years, the "insurance + futures" model has provided over 1.5 million yuan in compensation to local farmers, significantly exceeding traditional agricultural insurance coverage [2][3]. Group 2: Agricultural Innovations - The implementation of the water and fertilizer integration technology has led to a 10.8% increase in crop yield in 2023 and a 7.96% increase in 2024, with water savings of up to 30.7% and a reduction in fertilizer usage by over 20% [3]. - The project not only provides technical and financial support but also instills a risk management and sustainable development mindset among farmers [3]. Group 3: Financial Model Impact - The "insurance + futures" model, established in 2015, has provided over 200 billion yuan in risk protection for more than 7 million farming households, demonstrating its effectiveness in transforming agricultural risk management and supporting rural financial services [4]. - The model is evolving into a standardized operation with the introduction of the first industry normative document by the China Futures Association, promoting a comprehensive financial support system for agriculture [4]. Group 4: Global Recognition - The "insurance + futures" model has gained attention beyond China, evolving from a nascent concept to a widely recognized financial practice that offers a replicable model for global agricultural risk management [5].

证券代码：603185 证券简称：弘元绿能 公告编号：2025-035 弘元绿色能源股份有限公司 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 重要内容提示： ●交易目的：为了降低原材料及产品价格波动对弘元绿色能源股份有限公司 （以下简称"公司"）生产经营造成的潜在风险，公司拟开展期货套期保值交易， 充分利用期货的套期保值功能，减少因原材料及产品价格波动对公司经营业绩的 影响，提升公司生产经营管理水平和抵御风险能力。 ●交易品种及方式：公司及子公司拟开展的原材料期货套期保值业务的品种 仅限于与公司生产经营相关的大宗商品材料及产品（包括但不限于工业硅、多晶 硅、铝、铜、锡、铅、银等）。 ●交易金额：任一时点占用的保证金最高额度不超过人民币 13 亿元，上述 额度在投资期限内可循环滚动使用。 ●履行的审议程序：公司于 2025 年 7 月 7 日、2025 年 7 月 10 日分别召开第 四届董事会审计委员会第十二次会议、第四届董事会第三十次会议，审议通过了 《关于开展期货套期保值业务的议案》。根据《上海证券交易所股票上市 ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market showed a mixed performance with the main contracts mostly rising, indicating a positive sentiment in the market [1] - Coking coal and glass prices increased by over 2%, reflecting strong demand or supply constraints in these sectors [1] - Iron ore, hot-rolled coil, coking coal, rebar, rubber, rapeseed meal, soda ash, synthetic rubber, and No. 20 rubber all saw increases of over 1%, suggesting a broad-based rally in commodity prices [1] Group 2 - Fuel oil experienced a decline of over 1%, indicating potential weakness in that segment of the market [1] - Short fibers also fell by nearly 1%, which may suggest a decrease in demand or oversupply in that category [1]

美国天然气期货日内涨超3.00%，现报3.312美元/百万英热。 ...

| | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月10日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆一 | な☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆油 | な☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 棕櫚油 | な女女 | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 豆粕 | ななな | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | な☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | ななな | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | な女女 | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猎 | ななな | | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆主力止跌反弹之后，目前价格小幅震荡排回。本周东北地区大部气温偏高，降水偏多，土壤摘情适宜。预计未来一 周,大豆产区天气对作物生长有利。本周政策端进行了购销双向交易,成交情况好。进口大豆方面未来一周美豆产区天气利于 作物生长。短期持续关注天气和政策的指引。 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 农产品日报 【 ...

| Million | >国技期货 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年07月10日 | | 凝丙烯 | 女女女 | 塑料 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 纯苯 | 女女女 | 苯乙烯 | 女女女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | PX | 女女女 | PTA | ☆☆☆ | | | 乙二醇 | ☆☆☆ | 短纤 | ☆☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | 瓶片 | なな女 | 甲醇 | ☆☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 尿素 | 女女女 | PVC | ☆☆☆ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | 烧碱 | 女女女 | 玻璃 | ☆☆☆ | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 纯碱 | な女女 | | | | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【甲醇】 甲醇盘面反弹。江浙地区MTO装置开 ...

| 11/11/2 >国技期货 | | 能源日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年07月10日 | | 原油 | ★☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 文文文 | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ★☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ☆☆☆ | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 原油期货延续偏强,SC08合约涨0.54%。上周美国EIA原油库存超预期增加707万桶，与API库存表现类似，但汽 油表需单周表现强劲对市场构成支撑。OPEC+增产政策下全球石油累库趋势延续，但三季度油品旺季需求对现实 端供需构成支撑,宏观面关税冲击力度或最终小于4月初版本,近期胡赛在红海袭船频率增加亦带来地缘溢价支 撑,我们暂时维持三季度原油震荡偏强判断,但布伦特突破70美元/桶的空间亦受限。 【燃料 ...