一个，是中证Reits ，今天大涨超1%，明显和大盘背离，且1个点以上的涨幅，即使在连续上涨的 二季度，也仅出现过1天； 另一个，是银行股这边 ，继续大涨，港股这边迎来下半年首个交易日，港股银行大涨超2.2%，在 所有恒生行业指数中排第一，且建行领涨接近3%，而中行在四大行里垫底，"仅"上涨1.5%左右， 这背后的逻辑，我们昨天都已经聊过，并提前做出了预测分析，应该说，还是和实际情况相符 的。 今天市场有两块值得关注的亮点。 第一个亮点，依然是"季末调表，兑现利润"的后遗症 ，我们前两天聊的，节前异常下跌的两块资 产： 今天，财联社在 《真相调查， 银行股被险资配到上限了？ 》，也引用了咱们最近的观点，我在 本文的下半部分，会借助 泰康保险大佬 的公开观点，继续阐述一下，为什么说， 很多从业者忽 视了"前所未有的低利率"、"保险资产负债倒挂的紧迫性倒逼监管政策进入宽松周期"的长期性和 重要性。 另外，这回季末，还有一个事，大家关注的比较多，那就是 A500ETF 的冲量，华泰柏瑞最猛， 直接干破了200亿，弯道超车，成为A500的扛把子，堪称花小钱、办大事，季末营销的经典案 例，而嘉实等其他几家，季末也有发力 ...

证券研究报告 Energy Transfer (ET US) 核心能源基建，构筑价值护城河 2025 年 7 月 02 日│美国 燃气及分销 首次覆盖 Energy Transfer 并给予"买入"评级，目标价 23.34 美元（25 年 10x EV/EBTIDA）。ET 凭借全产业链布局、Permian 核心地位及出口龙头 优势，在能源转型中占据"基础设施红利"。财务稳健+分红增长+管理层执 行力构成抗风险壁垒，美国电力需求增长与 LNG 全球化机遇提供上行弹性， 其不可替代的资产网络、高可预见性现金流及新兴业务布局，使其成为兼顾 防御性与成长性的能源基础设施核心标的。 不可替代的资产网络：全美能源流动的"基础设施骨干" 2024 年末 ET 拥有全美 18%油气管道网络，控制 Permian Basin 28%原油 外输量及 25%天然气收集量，NGL 分馏能力占全美 30%，全球最大 Mont Belvieu 枢纽处理成本较行业低 20%。能源转型下，IEA 预测美国 LNG 出口 量 2030 年或翻倍至 240 MTPA，ET 在手产能 16.5 MTPA、已签 20 年长约 锁定 80%以上产能 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic ETF market has reached a new high with a total scale of 4.31 trillion yuan as of June 30, 2023, reflecting a 15.55% increase from the end of last year, driven by over 300 billion yuan in inflows and structural market trends [1][5]. Group 1: Market Trends - The ETF market has seen significant growth since 2025, with over 300 billion yuan in new funds entering the market [1]. - As of June 30, 2023, the total scale of ETFs listed in China reached 4.31 trillion yuan, up from 3.73 trillion yuan at the end of last year, marking a 15.55% growth [1][5]. - Several ETFs have demonstrated strong performance, with multiple Hong Kong stock innovative drug ETFs and others achieving over 50% returns [1][11]. Group 2: Changes in Fund Flows - Three major changes in fund flows have been identified in the ETF market for the first half of the year: 1. The top ten ETFs by net inflow are no longer exclusively broad-based ETFs [2][4]. 2. Bond ETFs have contributed significantly to the market's growth [5][6]. 3. Industry-specific ETFs have gained popularity, particularly dividend-themed ETFs [7][10]. Group 3: Performance of Specific ETFs - The top ten ETFs by net inflow include various products, with the top performers being the HuShen 300 ETF and several bond ETFs, collectively attracting significant capital [3][9]. - Despite some core broad-based ETFs experiencing net outflows since May, they still ranked high in net inflows for the first half of the year, with several exceeding 100 billion yuan [8][9]. - The performance of ETFs tracking innovative drug and technology indices has been particularly strong, with many achieving returns exceeding 50% [11][13]. Group 4: Investor Behavior and Market Sentiment - The divergence between fund flows and returns can be attributed to investor behavior, where institutional investors may redeem funds upon reaching target returns, leading to net outflows despite high returns [15]. - Market sentiment also plays a role, as investors may preemptively invest in broad-based ETFs based on economic recovery expectations, while taking profits from high-performing ETFs [15]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the market may continue to experience high volatility, with a focus on sectors such as defense and technology for potential growth opportunities [16][17]. - The ongoing low interest rate environment and policies favoring dividends are expected to support high-yield assets, while the economic recovery may enhance market risk appetite [17].

2025年6月30日，A股以总市值首次站上100万亿元的高光时刻为上半年行情落幕。在业内人士看来，这 一历史性突破不仅体现了中国资本市场体量的跃升，更折射出经济转型、产业升级与制度优化正加速演 进。 回顾上半年，A股在偏窄区间内震荡波动，整体走出向上态势，其间结构性行情明显，成长、消费、周 期和红利均有亮点。数据显示，2025年上半年，A股主要股指悉数收涨，上证指数上涨2.76%，北证50 指数表现最强，累计涨幅达39.45%；从行业来看，有色金属、企业服务、家庭用品、银行等涨幅居 前，均超15%。 下半年首个交易日，上证指数、深证成指收涨，创业板指微跌0.24%。关于今年剩余时间内，A股市场 行情将如何演绎，我国宏观政策应对成为市场分析人士关注的重点。 "在外部不确定性明显消除前，A股主要指数或延续窄幅波动特征。"在中金公司（601995）研究部首席 国内策略分析师李求索看来，考虑国际新秩序重构下我国基本面韧性，以及估值优势，预计下半年A股 节奏上或为"前稳后升"。 5月以来，在政策、内需、情绪共振下，新消费板块崛起，传统消费复苏，从黄金首饰、盲盒潮玩到现 制茶饮、宠物经济，均表现十分抢眼。多位分析人士认为 ...

相关机构表示，宏观层面来看，在国内利率进入下行周期、资产配置重心逐步从增长转向回报的背景 下，港股高股息资产受到市场较高关注。尤其是在港股市场整体估值处于历史中位水平、企业派息意愿 持续增强、政策支持资本市场长期资金入市的环境中，港股通红利指数逐渐成为投资者配置高现金流、 低波动品种的重要工具。同时，内地红利策略ETF发行热度持续升温，也对指数本身的结构、表现与可 投资性提出了更高要求。 红利港股ETF跟踪的是港股通高股息(港币)指数，该指数由中证指数有限公司编制，从符合港股通条件 的香港上市公司证券中筛选出流动性良好且持续分红的30只高股息率证券作为指数样本，并采用股息率 加权计算。该指数重点聚焦于具备稳定分红能力的优质企业，行业覆盖范围广泛，但主要集中于地产、 能源等传统优势行业，以反映港股市场高股息证券的整体表现。 没有股票账户的投资者可关注国泰中证港股通高股息投资ETF发起联接A（022274），国泰中证港股通 高股息投资ETF发起联接C（022275）。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资 ...

为什么人口对经济的影响那么大？ 从事经济研究的人士研究人口变化，当然是为了看清楚人口对经济的影响，因为人口从出生到工作之前及 退休之后都属于被抚养人口，成为社会负担，只有在成为劳动力的这一阶段为家庭和社会做出贡献，包括 薪酬和税赋。 由于现在劳动年龄人口数量的变化取决于20年前后出生人口数量，那么，我们是否现在就可以计算出未来 中国劳动力的数量及抚养比例的变化？答案是肯定的。 例如，我国的第二次婴儿潮的时间是从1962-1974年，持续了12年，之后计划生育政策趋于严厉，出生人 口数量显著下降。由此带来1980-2010年这30年的人口抚养比大幅下降， 从平均每10个人养7个人降至每 10个人养3.4个人。 这轮超大的人口红利是改革开放前的鼓励生育政策和计划生育政策的合力结果，与此 对应的是1980-2010年的平均GDP增速在10%左右，累计增长约20倍。而同期美国只增长了2.8倍。 2010年以后，我国的人口抚养比例开始上升，GDP增速也从两位数降至个位数，如今已经降至5%，对应 的抚养比例升至10个人养4.8个人。预计到2050年进一步上升至6.8个人。抚养比例的上升，将增加家庭开 支和国家的财政压力。 ...

7月2日，市场全天震荡调整，创业板指领跌。截至收盘，沪指跌0.09%，深成指跌0.61%，创业板指跌 1.13%。 板块方面，钢铁、光伏、煤炭、海洋经济等板块涨幅居前，军工、脑机接口、CPO、半导体等板块跌幅 居前。 个股跌多涨少，全市场超3200只个股下跌。沪深两市全天成交额1.38万亿元，较上个交易日缩量891 亿。 截至收盘，今天全市场仅1945家上涨。数据显示，这是6月20日至今，也就是沪指突破以来，今天的上 涨家数属于偏少的一天，仅略多于6月26日。 在指数尚未明显走弱的背景下，个股表现偏弱，意味着什么？ 可以有多种理解，比如： 2）而结合近期没有新题材，但板块轮动不断加速的情况来看，市场资金可能在反复高低切的博弈（或 者说先手割后手）中，产生了畏高情绪，结果就是赚钱效应缺乏持续性。 总之，既然风险偏好程度有限，"避险"策略又渐渐占了上风。 上周五大跌的银行股，本周以来连续修复；红利指数也走出三连阳。 | 自▲ 第6 | 圏先 | K 21 | 881155 银行 | | 加自选 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | AAAAAA | | | 前复权 @ ...

Core Viewpoint - The cash flow ETF (159399) is gaining traction in the market due to its focus on high dividend and low volatility assets, effectively hedging against cyclical sector fluctuations [3][5]. Group 1: Cash Flow ETF Performance - As of the latest update, the cash flow ETF (159399) has increased by 1.28%, with a trading volume exceeding 240 million yuan, and its constituent stock Zhuhai Heavy Industry has quickly reached the daily limit [1]. - The cash flow ETF closely tracks the FTSE China A-Share Free Cash Flow Focus Index, excluding banks and real estate, and covers sectors such as oil, coal, home appliances, and food and beverages [3]. - Since its establishment on February 19, 2025, the cash flow ETF has implemented four consecutive dividends, providing a stable cash flow source for long-term investors [3]. Group 2: Historical Performance Comparison - From April 9, 2025, to July 2, 2025, the FTSE China A-Share Free Cash Flow Focus Index has risen by 10.55%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which increased by 8.08%, and the CSI Dividend Index, which rose by 4.32% [4]. - The cash flow ETF demonstrates superior risk-return characteristics and resilience against market downturns compared to its peers [3][4]. Group 3: Market Context and Investment Appeal - In the current market environment characterized by rapid sector rotation, dividend cash flow assets are favored by large capital due to their ability to stabilize portfolio volatility [5]. - The cash flow ETF's holdings focus on large and mid-cap stocks, with a higher proportion of central state-owned enterprises compared to similar cash flow indices, indicating a higher safety margin [5]. - The demand for defensive assets is expected to rise as the domestic economy stabilizes and overseas liquidity shifts towards a more accommodative stance, benefiting sectors with stable cash flow attributes [4].

2025年上半年，中证1000在A股主要指数中成交量一直居于高位；而且半年上涨6.69%，不管是热度还是业绩都领先沪深300等大盘宽基。 目前A股小单成交占比已经从2月份最低的27.7%震荡上行至6月27日的33.9%，热度持续上升。7月随着美元贬值预期持续，流动性溢出将得到进一步强化， 在没有监管因素影响预期的前提下，小盘占优行情有望持续。 如何布局？ 只能说流动性宽松+小盘占优带来的高额成交量，为1000指增产品捕获更多超额提供了绝佳的土壤。 数据显示，截至6月30日，1000ETF增强（159680）成立以来累计超额收益33.10%，年化超额收益11.88%，做到了各个季度、半年度、自然年度相对业绩比 较基准均有超额收益。 | | | 1000ETF增强（159680）各季度业绩表现 | | 1 ( | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 区间 净值增长% 业绩基准% 超额收益% | | 区间 | | 2023Q1 12.00 | | 9.46 | 2.54 | 2023H1 | | 2023Q2 | -1.83 | -3.98 | 2.15 | 2023H2 | ...

Group 1 - New energy vehicle companies showed strong performance in June, with Leap Motor leading the narrow new forces with 48,006 units delivered, a year-on-year increase of over 138% [1] - Li Auto delivered 36,279 vehicles in June, but both year-on-year and month-on-month figures showed a decline, leading to a recent downward adjustment of its delivery guidance [1] - Xpeng Motors achieved a significant year-on-year growth of 224%, delivering 34,611 vehicles in June, with a total of 197,189 vehicles delivered in the first half of the year [1] Group 2 - NIO delivered 24,925 vehicles in June, marking a year-on-year increase of 17.5%, with a breakdown of 14,593 units from the NIO brand, 6,400 from the Ladao brand, and 3,932 from the Firefly brand [2] - Huawei's HarmonyOS Smart achieved a record delivery of 52,747 units in June, while Geely's Zeekr delivered 43,012 units, experiencing a month-on-month decline of 7.58% [2] - The automotive industry is expected to face intensified competition in the second half of the year, with a projected 55% penetration rate for new energy vehicles and potential price reductions for high-speed NOA equipped models [3]