Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that the worst phase of the economic fundamentals may have passed, with expectations for a recovery in the U.S. economy and increasing inflationary pressures. Policy shifts are expected to support consumer and business confidence in the second half of the year, while global markets, particularly in Europe, are anticipated to continue their recovery [2][6][17]. Economic Fundamentals - The U.S. economy has faced negative policy shocks since the beginning of the year, disrupting the recovery initiated by the Federal Reserve's rate cuts last September. Private consumption contributed 0.31 and 0.98 percentage points to GDP in Q1 and Q2, respectively, compared to an expected 1.87 percentage points in 2024 [6][9]. - Manufacturing PMI in the U.S. has been declining since February, reflecting a broader global economic slowdown due to policy headwinds [6][9]. - The article anticipates that the economic fundamentals may improve in the second half of the year, driven by fiscal stimulus and a stable labor market, which could lead to a new wage growth cycle [14][15]. Policy Environment - The article notes a shift from policy headwinds to tailwinds, with tariff uncertainties diminishing and tax cuts being implemented. This is expected to boost consumer and business confidence in the latter half of the year [2][9]. - The U.S. Treasury is projected to issue approximately $1 trillion in net debt in Q3, which may tighten liquidity and suppress risk asset performance [2][20]. Inflation Outlook - Inflation in the U.S. is expected to rise as the low base effect ends and tariffs are implemented. The article predicts a noticeable acceleration in inflation trends in the second half of the year [15][20]. Global Market Dynamics - The article highlights that the weak dollar cycle is beneficial for emerging markets, particularly Hong Kong stocks. Historical trends show that improvements in fundamentals and currency appreciation positively impact risk asset performance [3][33]. - The article also discusses the potential for a global market recovery, with expectations for multiple markets to perform well rather than just the U.S. stock market [26][28]. Sector Analysis - The article expresses optimism for sectors such as manufacturing, military, energy, and infrastructure in the U.S. and Europe, which are expected to maintain high levels of activity and support resource prices like copper and aluminum [2][28]. - The financial sector is also seen as having investment value due to liquidity expansion and financial deregulation [28][40]. Currency and Asset Valuation - The anticipated depreciation of the dollar and the return of pending foreign exchange funds are expected to support the appreciation of the Chinese yuan [3][30]. - The article suggests that the weak dollar environment will favor growth-oriented stocks in both A-shares and Hong Kong markets, particularly in technology and materials sectors [33][49]. Bond Market Insights - The article notes that short-term market sentiment is currently driving bond market fluctuations, with a potential for increased volatility in the bond market due to strong performance in risk assets [50][56]. - It is expected that the long-term bond yields may trend upwards due to the issuance of new debt and economic recovery, but there remains potential for a downward adjustment in yields if the Federal Reserve resumes quantitative easing [56][58].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing "stock-bond seesaw" phenomenon, highlighting the strong correlation between the 10Y government bond yield and the CSI 300 index, with a Pearson coefficient of 0.92 since early July 2023, indicating increased investor preference for risk assets [4][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current stock market resembles last year's bond market, with the "wealth effect" being a significant driver for the bullish trend. However, this year's bond market lacks a similar wealth effect [5]. - As of the report date, the 10Y government bond yield stands at 1.73%, having increased by 5.2 basis points since the end of last year, prompting a shift of funds from the bond market to the stock market as investors become more optimistic about equities [5][6]. Group 2: Long-term Outlook - In the long term, it is unlikely that the bond market will consistently follow the stock market in pricing. Historical data shows that since 2016, there have been few instances where bond yields and stock indices moved in the same direction for extended periods [6][7]. - The correlation between the 10Y government bond yield and the CSI 300 index over the past 9.5 years is only 0.08, while the correlation with nominal GDP growth and the DR007 rate is significantly higher at 0.56 and 0.83, respectively. This indicates that bond pricing is more sensitive to economic conditions and monetary policy [7].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The July US inflation data met expectations, with a controllable impact from tariffs. The month-on-month inflation rate for goods remained stable at +0.2%, despite tariff effects spreading to the automotive sector. Prices in previously affected categories like clothing, home appliances, and entertainment have started to decline, likely due to reduced consumer demand leading companies to absorb tariff costs [5]. - Weak employment data combined with moderate inflation has raised expectations for a rate cut in September, with a probability of 94.3% for such an action [5]. Group 2: Company Performance Analysis - Wei Xing New Materials (002372.SZ) reported a decline in revenue and net profit due to weak downstream demand in H1 2025. However, the company maintained a high level of operational quality, showing year-on-year improvement, which is commendable under current market conditions [6]. - Ampere Dragon (301413.SZ) has an optimistic outlook with projected revenue growth of 24.6%, 53.9%, and 89.8% for 2025-2027 compared to 2024. The net profit is expected to grow by 43.7%, 86.2%, and 131.3% respectively, indicating strong business growth expectations despite some concerns over profit margins due to client cost-cutting pressures [7]. - Kingdee International (0268.HK) achieved total revenue of 3.19 billion RMB in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%. Cloud service revenue grew by 11.9% to 2.67 billion RMB, with a gross profit of 2.095 billion RMB, reflecting a gross margin of 65.6%, slightly above market expectations [8]. - Jinbo Bio (832982.BJ) reported a revenue of 860 million RMB in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 42.4%, with net profit growing by 26.7%. The revenue for Q1 and Q2 was 370 million RMB and 490 million RMB respectively, showing significant growth rates [9]. - Action Education (605098.SH) faced short-term business pressure with a revenue decline of 11.7% to 340 million RMB in H1 2025. However, the company is advancing its AI strategic transformation and maintaining a high dividend payout ratio [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current financial landscape, highlighting the negative growth in credit and its implications for the A-share market, drawing parallels to historical trends from 2005. Financial Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed 3674 points, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [5] - In July, new credit issuance was negative at -500 billion, marking a significant downturn [5] - The central bank conducted a 1185 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan, reflecting a balanced and slightly loose liquidity environment [3][5] Interest Rates and Bond Market - The overnight repo rates are stable, with DR001 around 1.32% and DR007 at 1.45% [3] - The weighted average rates for repos are as follows: R001 at 1.35%, R007 at 1.47%, and R014 at 1.51%, indicating slight fluctuations in the short-term funding costs [4] - The 10-year government bond yield opened at 1.7200%, with a peak of 1.7350% during the trading session [6] Historical Context and Market Sentiment - The article references the last occurrence of negative credit growth in July 2005, which preceded a substantial increase in the Shanghai Composite Index, suggesting a potential for similar outcomes in the current context [5] - Analysts express a cautious yet optimistic sentiment regarding the stock market, with a humorous exchange indicating a preference for technology and growth sectors over bonds [6]

新华财经上海8月13日电（记者杨溢仁）本周前三天，债券市场延续震荡盘整格局，"股债跷跷板"效应 是重要影响因素之一。银行间利率债收益率在上行两日之后有所回落，10年期国债收益率在13日尾盘下 行0.75BP至1.72%。 多家机构分析认为，短期内10年期国债收益率预计将在1.65%至1.75%区间内波动。至于收益率能否有 效突破1.65%甚至创出新低，市场普遍认为可能需要等待国内实质性的降息政策落地提供更强驱动。 股债资金分流持续扰动债市 "近期股市展现出一定的赚钱效应，"一位券商固收部门负责人向记者表示，"7月以来，前期风险资产价 格上涨等因素，促使部分投资者转向看多股市。这种观点一旦形成，容易带动市场对未来盈利预期改善 等积极情绪的涌现。" 该负责人认为，当前股市的赚钱效应驱动模式与去年债市情况有相似之处。"目前10年期国债收益率处 于1.73%水平，较去年末上行5.2BP。当投资者更看好股市时，部分债市资金向股市转移是自然现象。" 进一步分析，当前税收政策调整可能推升一级市场发行利率。为确保新券平稳发行，央行或释放稳定信 号，甚至不排除重新开展公开市场操作以维护短期市场节奏的连贯性。 资金的这种跨市场流 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The anti - dumping deposit policy on Canadian rapeseeds will reshape the domestic rapeseed meal supply - demand pattern, with supply tightening and price rising. Short - term observation is recommended, and future trade policies should be monitored [2] - The pig price is stable and strong, with short - term range - bound fluctuations. It is recommended not to over - expect in the short - term and to long the LH2511 contract in the medium - to - long - term. Farmers can sell for hedging according to the出栏 rhythm [2] - The short - term bond market is bearish due to rising funds and stock market trends. Treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate downward [4] - Silver is expected to fluctuate upward due to inflation data and increased rate - cut expectations [4] - Gold is affected by conflicting factors, with increased rate - cut expectations being positive and the possible end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict being negative. It is expected to fluctuate downward [4] - Palm oil prices are expected to be high - level range - bound due to good export data and positive news [5] - Iron ore prices are expected to be range - bound, and it is recommended to hold long positions in the 2601 contract [5] - Manganese silicon is expected to follow the sector's fluctuations, with cost support but increasing supply pressure [6] - Rebar prices are expected to be bullish in the short - term due to positive news [7] - Methanol is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and observation is recommended [8] - LLDPE is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and observation or short - selling on rebounds is recommended [9] - Soda ash is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and observation is recommended [10] Group 3: Summaries by Short - Comments Rapeseed Meal - China's Ministry of Commerce imposed a 75.8% deposit on Canadian rapeseed imports starting August 14. The final ruling will affect the deposit refund. The policy will reshape the domestic rapeseed meal supply - demand pattern [2] Live Pigs - On August 12, the pork price at the national agricultural product wholesale market was 20.26 yuan/kg, up 0.3%. The pig price is stable and strong, with short - term range - bound fluctuations [2] Short - term Treasury Bonds - Shibor short - end rates mostly rose. Rising funds and stock market trends are negative for short - term bonds [4] Silver - US inflation data in July was in line with expectations. Increased rate - cut expectations led to a weaker US dollar, and silver is expected to rise [4] Gold - Trump urged the Fed to cut rates and threatened to sue Powell. Increased rate - cut expectations are positive for gold, but the possible end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict is negative [4] Palm Oil - Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 10 increased by 65.25% compared to the previous month. Positive factors are driving the price [5] Iron Ore - The inventory at 47 ports increased by 45.26 tons, and the daily discharge volume increased. Overseas mines are in the off - season, and prices are expected to be range - bound [5] Manganese Silicon - The capacity utilization rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises increased by 1.2%. Cost support is strong, but supply pressure is increasing [6] Rebar - On August 12, domestic steel prices continued to rise. Positive news is driving the price up in the short - term [7] Methanol - Northwest production enterprise orders decreased, port inventory increased, and production capacity utilization decreased. It is expected to fluctuate [8] Plastic (LLDPE) - LLDPE prices rose, production increased, and inventory rose. It is expected to fluctuate, and short - selling on rebounds is an option [9] Soda Ash - Soda ash prices were weak, production increased, and inventory rose. It is expected to fluctuate [10]

Group 1: Company Research - The core products of WanHua Chemical, including polyurethane, petrochemicals, and new materials, saw increased sales in Q2 2025, but product prices declined due to weak downstream demand. The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is 13.8 billion, 17.2 billion, and 19.4 billion yuan respectively, with a "buy" rating maintained [2] - Ampere Dragon's stock incentive plan is expected to drive significant revenue and net profit growth from 2025 to 2027, with projected net profits of 120 million, 140 million, and 170 million yuan. The current PE ratios for these years are 76, 62, and 51 times, maintaining a "buy" rating [3] - Kingdee International focuses on subscription and AI, with a slight downward revision of revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 6.9 billion, 7.7 billion, and 8.5 billion yuan. However, net profit forecasts were raised to 160 million, 480 million, and 880 million yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [4] - Haitai New Light's net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 were lowered to 185 million and 222 million yuan due to inventory reduction impacts, while a new forecast for 2027 is set at 268 million yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [5] - Action Education reported a revenue of 340 million yuan in H1 2025, down 11.7% year-on-year, with a net profit of 130 million yuan, down 3.5%. The net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 were adjusted to 294 million, 334 million, and 371 million yuan, maintaining an "increase" rating [7] - Huang Shang Huang's H1 2025 revenue was 984 million yuan, down 7.19% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 26.9%. The EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 are 0.16, 0.18, and 0.20 yuan, maintaining an "increase" rating [8] - Jinbo Biological's sales expenses increased significantly, leading to a downward revision of net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 1.01 billion, 1.31 billion, and 1.69 billion yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [9] Group 2: Market Data - The A-share market showed a slight increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3665.92, up 0.50% [6] - The bond market is expected to decouple from the stock market, indicating that bond pricing will return to fundamentals reflecting economic and monetary policy expectations [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market continues with the allocation strategy, while the sentiment in the bond market remains weak [2]. - For stock index futures, the Shanghai Composite Index is approaching its previous high. The market is not sensitive to negative factors in the short - term and will continue with the allocation strategy. If the Shanghai Composite Index breaks through upward, the small - cap factor will be more dominant [3]. - For stock index options, the market is recommended to switch to a bull spread portfolio as the market has made some upward breakthroughs [3]. - For treasury bond futures, the market is weak. Although there was some recovery in early August, the bullish sentiment is unstable and policy factors may cause significant disturbances, so caution is needed [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Viewpoint**: The Shanghai Composite Index is approaching its previous high. The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM current - month contracts are 0.57 points, 2.79 points, - 8.96 points, and - 9.41 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of 7.09 points, 4.28 points, 14.60 points, and 8.93 points. The spreads between current - month and next - month contracts are 13.2 points, 0.2 points, 66.6 points, and 70.6 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of 2.0 points, 1.2 points, - 2.8 points, and - 3.8 points. The total open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM changed by - 8595 lots, - 1720 lots, - 9999 lots, and - 20490 lots respectively [9]. - **Logic**: The equity market continued its upward trend on Tuesday. The strong sentiment is related to the China - US trade joint statement. Large - cap stocks performed prominently, which may be due to the need for large - cap stocks to support the index's upward breakthrough and the entry of large institutional funds. The market is recommended to hold IM [3][9]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **Viewpoint**: Continue to hold the offensive strategy. The overall market trading volume decreased slightly, with most varieties having reduced liquidity, while the ChiNext and STAR Market - related varieties remained active. The option sentiment index strengthened significantly, and the implied volatility of call options increased rapidly at the end of the session, suggesting the entry of buyers [3][9]. - **Logic**: As the market has made an upward breakthrough, it is recommended to switch to a bull spread portfolio [3][9]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment in the bond market remains weak. The T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts fell by 0.04%, 0.00%, 0.02%, and 0.31% respectively. The 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond yields rose to 1.727% and 2.017% respectively [4][9]. - **Logic**: The improvement in risk appetite suppresses the bond market. The stock and commodity markets are strong, and the "stock - bond seesaw" has a negative impact on the bond market. The central bank conducted 114.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a small net withdrawal of funds and a slight increase in capital interest rates. Policy factors such as "anti - involution" and stable growth are negative for the bond market. It is recommended to be cautious in the trend strategy, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels in the hedging strategy, note that the arbitrage space for main contracts may be small in the basis strategy, and pay attention to steepening the yield curve in the curve strategy [4][9][10]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The US July CPI annual rate (unadjusted) was 2.7%, the same as the previous value and lower than the forecast of 2.8% [12]. - The forecast values for China's July M2 money supply annual rate, July new RMB loans (year - to - date), and July social financing scale (year - to - date) are 8.4%, 13.205 trillion yuan, and 24.3565 trillion yuan respectively [12]. - The forecast values for the US July PPI annual rate and China's July total retail sales of consumer goods annual rate are 2.5% and 4.6% respectively [12]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - US President Trump demanded that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell cut interest rates immediately and criticized his performance. Trump is considering allowing relevant lawsuits against Powell to proceed [13]. - The Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration issued the Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans, providing interest subsidies for eligible personal consumption loans from September 1, 2025, to August 31, 2026 [14]. - OPEC maintained its 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast at 1.29 million barrels per day, adjusted the 2026 forecast from 1.28 million barrels per day to 1.38 million barrels per day. It also adjusted some economic growth forecasts [15]. - The National Healthcare Security Administration announced the list of drugs that passed the preliminary formal review for the 2025 adjustment of the national basic medical insurance, maternity insurance, work - related injury insurance drug catalog, and commercial insurance innovative drug catalog. Passing the preliminary review only means meeting the application conditions and does not guarantee inclusion in the catalog [15][16]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring No specific data is provided in the text for in - depth summary.

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the financial market, highlighting the impact of U.S.-China tariff negotiations and the introduction of new loan policies on market sentiment and investment strategies [3][6][8]. Group 1: Financial Market Conditions - The U.S.-China tariff truce has been extended for another 90 days, contributing to a continued rise in the stock market [6]. - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 114.6 billion, with a net withdrawal of 46.1 billion due to 160.7 billion reverse repos maturing [3]. - The overall funding environment is described as balanced and slightly loose, with stable funding rates; DR001 is around 1.32% and DR007 is around 1.44% [4]. Group 2: Loan Policies and Market Reactions - New policies for interest subsidies on business loans and consumer loans were announced, leading to fluctuations in interest rates, which peaked at 1.7275% after the announcement [6][7]. - There is a notable concern regarding the use of loan funds, with warnings against using borrowed money for investment purposes [7]. Group 3: Employment and Industry Trends - The number of ride-hailing drivers in China has increased from 2.891 million in 2020 to 7.483 million in 2024, reflecting an annual growth rate of 26.8%, while the average daily orders have significantly dropped from 23.3 to 10 [7]. - The article expresses a sentiment of uncertainty regarding career paths in the current economic climate, indicating that traditional job security is diminishing [8].

Core Viewpoint - The short-term bond market has gained attention as short-term interest rates have declined, contrasting with long-term bond rates, indicating a unique situation in a sluggish bond market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Short-term Bond Market Performance - Short-term bond rates have fallen to around 1.35%, close to the low seen in early July, reflecting strong investor interest [2][3]. - The average yield of short-term bond funds is not particularly outstanding, but top-performing funds, such as Ping An's 0-3 year policy financial bond A, achieved a yield of 0.41%, outperforming other pure bond funds [2]. - Despite the strong performance of short-term bonds, medium to long-term pure bond funds have a higher average yield of 0.08%, indicating potential for a style shift in investment preferences [2][3]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Fund Flows - The market is characterized by a relatively loose funding environment, with major banks continuously purchasing short-term bonds, while long-term bond purchases remain limited [2][4]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has not indicated a clear stance on long-term bond purchases, and the credit bond market has seen significant downward pressure, suggesting ongoing compression of credit spreads [2][3]. - Recent data shows that the interbank funding rates, such as DR007 and R007, have remained stable, indicating a well-supplied funding environment [4]. Group 3: Economic Outlook and Investment Strategy - The overall economic fundamentals are expected to support the bond market, but close monitoring of inflation and external demand is necessary [4]. - The current financial market is experiencing structural differentiation, with the stock market showing signs of recovery, while the bond market remains in a favorable environment despite low yield levels [5]. - Analysts suggest maintaining a balanced approach between stocks and bonds, focusing on short-term trading opportunities and adjusting portfolio duration based on market conditions [5].