Core Insights - The current sentiment towards the US dollar is negative, with a significant preference for gold as an investment asset among investors [1][3][9] - Ray Dalio emphasizes the importance of diversification in investment strategies rather than relying solely on predictions [3][11] Group 1: Investment Trends - Dalio suggests that gold should constitute about 10% to 15% of an investment portfolio to achieve diversification [4][11] - As of September 23, gold prices have reached historical highs, with COMEX gold surpassing $3,800 per ounce, marking an approximate 8% increase for the month [4][9] - The US federal deficit is projected to increase by $3.4 trillion over the next decade due to tax reforms, raising concerns about the sustainability of US government spending [5][7] Group 2: Economic Concerns - Dalio warns that the US government's excessive spending and rising debt levels have become unsustainable, potentially leading to a significant fiscal crisis [5][8] - The US government may need to issue an additional $12 trillion in bonds to cover a $2 trillion deficit, $1 trillion in interest payments, and $9 trillion in maturing debt [7] - The US federal deficit reached $1.973 trillion as of August, with a monthly deficit of $345 billion in August alone, a 15% increase year-over-year [7][8] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Despite the rise in gold prices, US stock markets, particularly tech stocks, have also seen gains, which is unusual and indicates a complex market sentiment [9][10] - The dollar index has fallen over 10% against other major currencies this year, while gold has become the second-largest reserve asset globally [9][10] - Predictions from Morgan Stanley and UBS suggest that gold prices could reach $3,800 per ounce by the end of the year and potentially $4,000 per ounce if geopolitical or economic conditions worsen [12]

Core Insights - The demand for 30-year UK government bonds has unexpectedly dropped to its lowest level since 2022, highlighting a significant decline in market appetite for long-term gilt amid rising government budget deficits [1][4] - UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves is attempting to persuade the market to accept her fiscal spending plan, but concerns remain regarding the government's recent £18 billion overshoot in borrowing [1][4] Group 1: Demand and Auction Results - The UK Debt Management Office (DMO) auctioned £1.5 billion of long-term gilts maturing in 2056, receiving bids worth £4.6 billion (approximately $6.2 billion), indicating a threefold oversubscription, yet the auction size is the smallest in three years [1][4] - The "tail" measure, which reflects the difference between the weighted average and the lowest accepted bid, widened to 1.4 basis points, up from 0.8 basis points in July, indicating weakened demand [4] Group 2: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Following the auction, the yield on 30-year UK government bonds fell by 4 basis points to 5.51%, after previously declining by more than 5 basis points before the auction [4] - Despite increased volatility in the secondary market, overall performance in recent auctions for various maturities of gilts has been robust, with demand for a recent 10-year gilt auction nearing record levels [4][5] Group 3: Policy Adjustments - The upcoming gilt issuance is the last long-term gilt auction of the year, with the Bank of England announcing a reduction in the proportion of certain long-term gilts sold under its quantitative tightening (QT) plan to 20% to help mitigate market volatility [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In the short - term, the ultra - long - term US bond yields may decline from their highs, while those of the UK, France, Japan, and Germany are expected to have potential for phased spikes, but the room for continuous and significant upward movement is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, the term premium may remain high, and there is a risk of a central increase in long - term yields [2][23]. - The foundation for the upward trend of Chinese asset prices is solid, and they are expected to further attract diversified capital allocation [31]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Recent Market Review of Sharp Fluctuations in Ultra - long - term Bond Yields of Developed Economies - On September 2, 2025, the ultra - long - term bond yields of major developed economies rose rapidly. The 30 - year UK government bond yield reached 5.752%, the highest since 1998; Germany and France's 30 - year government bond yields reached 3.443% and 4.523% respectively, the highest since 2011 and 2009; the 30 - year Japanese government bond yield reached 3.302%, a record high; the 30 - year US government bond yield approached 5%. Market concerns spread to the European foreign exchange and stock markets. As of September 12, except for the impact of the resignation of Ishiba Shigeru on Japanese bond yields, the ultra - long - term bond yields of the UK, France, and Germany declined slightly [4]. - Since the end of the interest - rate hike cycle in the second half of 2023, the short - term government bond yields of major European and American economies have declined from their highs and accelerated their decline after the start of the interest - rate cut cycle in the second half of 2024. In contrast, the ultra - long - term government bond yields have shown a fluctuating upward trend. As of September 12, 2025, the average 2 - year government bond yields of G7 countries (except Japan) decreased by more than 31BP, while the 30 - year government bond yields increased by an average of 42BP [5]. 3.2 Reasons for Sharp Fluctuations in Ultra - long - term Bond Yields of Developed Economies - **Economic Aspect**: Loose fiscal policies, high leverage, and continuous fermentation of concerns about debt sustainability, combined with political instability and rising risk - aversion sentiment. For example, in the UK, fiscal difficulties have continuously disturbed the market; in France, it is difficult to promote fiscal discipline rectification, and the government changes frequently; in Germany, although the market responds positively to fiscal expansion, the "debt brake" increases concerns; in Japan, the resignation of the prime minister and concerns about fiscal easing have increased; in the US, the pressure of fiscal interest payments has increased, and the independence of the Federal Reserve is facing challenges [6][10]. - **Policy Aspect**: Affected by tariff frictions, inflation expectations have risen, restricting the prospects of interest - rate cuts and worsening the fiscal burden, forming a negative cycle. Since April 2025, the inflation levels of major economies have marginally rebounded, and central bank monetary policy decisions are facing dilemmas [15]. - **Funding Aspect**: The wave of corporate bond issuance and the reconstruction of the TGA account have led to a phased increase in bond supply, but the demand for long - term capital allocation is weak. In September, the bond issuance volume in Europe reached a record high, and the US Treasury plans to increase the TGA account balance. At the same time, the sharp rise and large fluctuations in ultra - long - term bond yields have reduced the enthusiasm of long - term funds such as insurance for allocation [20]. 3.3 Outlook for the Future Trends of Ultra - long - term Bond Yields of Developed Economies and Their Possible Impact on Chinese Asset Prices - **Outlook for the Future Trends of Ultra - long - term Bond Yields of Developed Economies** - **Short - term**: The ultra - long - term US bond yields may decline from their highs. The short - term supply pressure of US bonds is generally controllable, and the market expects the Fed to restart interest - rate cuts in September. In Europe and Japan, concerns about fiscal sustainability are still fermenting, and political adjustments increase the risk of rising ultra - long - term bond yields. However, the term spreads of some economies' government bonds are at relatively high historical levels, and policy intervention may limit the continuous and significant upward momentum [23][27]. - **Medium - to - long - term**: The term premium may remain high, and there is a risk of a central increase in long - term yields. Global economic growth momentum is under pressure, and countries' fiscal expansion efforts are increasing, so the term spreads are expected to remain high [30]. - **Possible Impact on Chinese Asset Prices**: The Chinese equity market has been warming up since September 2024, with significant increases in major indices. In the bond market, the increases in 10Y and 30Y government bond yields are relatively small compared to developed economies. The RMB exchange rate has been rising steadily. The cultivation of new productive forces, the release of endogenous consumption growth momentum, a stable interest - rate and exchange - rate environment, and relatively low capital market valuations are expected to attract continuous inflows of diversified capital [31].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures on September 23, 2025. Index futures are expected to oscillate strongly, while industrial silicon, polysilicon, rebar, coking coal, glass, soda ash, crude oil, soybean meal, and soybean oil futures are expected to oscillate weakly. Gold and silver futures are likely to reach new highs [2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Outlook - **Index Futures**: On September 23, 2025, index futures are expected to oscillate strongly. For example, IF2512 has resistance levels at 4518 and 4545 points and support levels at 4455 and 4444 points [2][18]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year Treasury bond futures contract T2512 and the thirty - year Treasury bond futures contract TL2512 are likely to oscillate widely on September 23, 2025 [2]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold and silver futures are expected to oscillate strongly and reach new highs. For instance, the gold futures contract AU2512 will attack resistance levels at 855.0 and 860.0 yuan/gram, and the silver futures contract AG2512 will attack resistance levels at 10400 and 10500 yuan/kg [2][3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate, while aluminum and alumina futures are likely to oscillate weakly on September 23, 2025 [3]. - **Industrial and Agricultural Futures**: Industrial silicon, polysilicon, rebar, coking coal, glass, soda ash, crude oil, soybean meal, and soybean oil futures are expected to oscillate weakly on September 23, 2025 [3][4][6]. 2. Macro Information and Trading Tips - **International Relations**: Trump said he would meet with Chinese leaders during the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded that the two sides are communicating [7]. - **Economic Data**: China's 1 - year LPR in September was reported at 3%, and the 5 - year and above variety was reported at 3.5%, both remaining unchanged for the fourth consecutive month. Some analysts believe that the central bank may implement a new round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts in the fourth quarter [7]. - **Financial Market**: As of the end of June, China's banking industry's total assets were nearly 470 trillion yuan, ranking first in the world; the stock and bond market sizes ranked second in the world; and the foreign exchange reserve size ranked first in the world for 20 consecutive years [8]. 3. Commodity Futures - Related Information - **Precious Metals**: On September 22, international precious metal futures generally rose. COMEX gold futures rose 2.03% to 3781.20 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 3.17% to 44.32 US dollars/ounce [11]. - **Crude Oil**: On September 22, international oil prices oscillated narrowly. The main contract of US crude oil fell 0.10% to 62.34 US dollars/barrel, and the main contract of Brent crude oil fell 0.05% to 66.01 US dollars/barrel [11]. - **Base Metals**: On September 22, London base metals showed mixed results. LME zinc rose 0.38%, LME lead rose 0.15%, LME copper rose 0.13%, while LME tin fell 0.44%, LME nickel fell 0.46%, and LME aluminum fell 0.62% [11]. - **Exchange Rates**: On September 22, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1148 at 16:30, down 23 basis points from the previous trading day, and closed at 7.1138 at night. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 7.1106, up 22 basis points from the previous trading day [12]. 4. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Index Futures**: On September 22, index futures generally showed a small - scale upward trend. For example, the main contract IF2512 of CSI 300 index futures rose 0.30% (0.44% based on the closing price) [12]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On September 22, Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The 30 - year main contract rose 0.22%, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.20%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.13%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.04% [36]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold and silver futures continued to rise and reached new highs. For example, the gold futures contract AU2512 reached a new high of 851.98 yuan/gram during the night trading on September 23 [45]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper futures showed a small - scale upward trend, while aluminum and alumina futures showed a downward trend on September 22 [59][63]. - **Industrial and Agricultural Futures**: Industrial silicon, polysilicon, rebar, coking coal, glass, soda ash, crude oil, soybean meal, and soybean oil futures showed different degrees of decline on September 22 [70][71][80].

Core Insights - The total revenue and aid for Mongolia's unified budget from January to August 2025 amounted to 19.3 trillion tugrik (approximately 5.37 billion USD), reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.9% [1] - General revenue reached 18.1 trillion tugrik (approximately 5.036 billion USD), down 4.3% year-on-year [1] - Tax revenue decreased by 6.3% to 16.6 trillion tugrik (approximately 4.619 billion USD), influenced by reductions in income tax and mineral resource usage fees [1] Revenue Analysis - The total revenue and aid decreased to 19.3 trillion tugrik (approximately 5.37 billion USD), a decline of 2.9% compared to the previous year [1] - General revenue was 18.1 trillion tugrik (approximately 5.036 billion USD), showing a 4.3% decrease year-on-year [1] - Tax revenue fell by 6.3% to 16.6 trillion tugrik (approximately 4.619 billion USD), primarily due to a reduction of 720.6 billion tugrik (approximately 200 million USD) in income tax and 1.1 trillion tugrik (approximately 306 million USD) in mineral resource usage fees [1] Expenditure Overview - Total fiscal expenditure and loan repayments reached 19.3 trillion tugrik (approximately 5.37 billion USD), marking an increase of 11.6% year-on-year [1] - The fiscal deficit stood at 1.2 trillion tugrik (approximately 334 million USD) [1] - Spending on goods and services increased by 98.5 billion tugrik (approximately 27.41 million USD), while transfer payments rose by 905.8 billion tugrik (approximately 252 million USD) [1] Spending Structure - The structure of expenditures included transfer payments (40.7%), goods and services spending (33.1%), capital spending (16.8%), interest and subsidies (6.2%), and other expenditures (3.2%) [1] - Capital spending decreased by 118.5 billion tugrik (approximately 32.97 million USD), falling to 3.2 trillion tugrik (approximately 890 million USD) [1]

【资讯导读】 ·美参议院否决临时拨款法案政府"停摆"风险升高 ·冯德莱恩提交欧盟第19轮对俄制裁措施 ·多国宣布承认巴勒斯坦国 ·日本央行维持利率不变将出售资产缩减宽松规模 ·日本央行19日在结束为期两天的货币政策会议后宣布，维持现行利率水平不变，未来将择机出售其持 有的金融资产，缩减宽松规模，推动货币政策正常化。 ·日本总务省19日公布的报告显示，今年8月日本去除生鲜食品后的核心消费价格指数（CPI）同比上升 2.7%至111.6，自去年11月以来涨幅首次降至3%以下。报告显示，食品价格上涨仍是拉动日本物价上涨 的最主要原因。 ·美国国会参议院19日否决众议院通过的一项临时拨款法案，推高部分联邦政府机构因资金耗尽而"停 摆"的风险。 ·欧盟审计机构欧洲审计团发布报告指出，由于供应链脆弱、内部市场分割等结构性问题，欧盟至今未 能找到有效解决方案，常用抗生素、疫苗等药品短缺现象仍将持续存在。 ·欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩19日发表声明，宣布向成员国提交第19轮对俄罗斯制裁措施，主要涉及能 源、金融等领域。 ·英国、加拿大和澳大利亚21日分别发表声明，宣布承认巴勒斯坦国。葡萄牙外交部长保罗·兰热尔21日 也宣布，葡萄 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that France's sovereign credit rating has been downgraded by two agencies in one week, reflecting severe consequences of political and economic instability [1][2] - The recent political turmoil includes the collapse of Prime Minister Borne's government due to failed confidence votes on budget deficit reduction measures, leading to the appointment of a new Prime Minister, Sebastien Lecornu, without stabilizing the political situation [1][2] - Morningstar DBRS indicates that the political environment and increasing government instability hinder the effectiveness of France's fiscal policy setting, raising execution risks for achieving fiscal targets in the coming years [1][2] Group 2 - Fitch downgraded France's sovereign credit rating from "AA-" to "A+" due to political divisions obstructing necessary reforms, which negatively impacts public finances and is expected to worsen public debt from 113.9% of GDP in 2025 to 121% by 2027 [2] - Political and fiscal turmoil has led to asset sell-offs in France, increasing borrowing costs relative to other European countries, with bond premiums nearly doubling since Macron's election call [2] - Despite exceeding growth expectations in the first half of the year, uncertainty is projected to lead to a more sluggish economy, as businesses and households hesitate on investment and consumption [2][3] Group 3 - Lecornu has not yet clarified how to negotiate with opposition lawmakers demanding tax increases and slower deficit reduction, with the primary task being to form a new government in a divided parliament [2][3] - Morningstar DBRS believes Lecornu's measures may be relatively weak, as previous proposals for significant tax increases and budget cuts were rejected by opposition votes [3] - The outlook for France's rating has been adjusted from "negative" to "stable," indicating some advantages as the second-largest economy in the Eurozone, but warns of potential further downgrades if structural fiscal imbalances and debt ratios continue to rise [3]

Core Insights - The political battle surrounding the Federal Reserve's board nomination has highlighted the limitations of Trump's influence over monetary policy, as evidenced by the narrow 48-47 vote and the resulting modest interest rate cut of 25 basis points instead of the anticipated 50 basis points [3][10][24] - The U.S. economy is facing significant challenges, including a staggering $2 trillion budget deficit and a concerning employment situation, with non-farm payrolls adding only 22,000 jobs in August and an unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years [4][7] - The agricultural sector is under severe strain, with a $35.1 billion shortfall stemming from trade war-related subsidies, and a report indicating that farmers are struggling with unsold soybean inventories of 1.02 billion bushels [8][20][22] Economic Context - The U.S. government's total expenditure for the year is projected at $7 trillion, while revenues are only $5 trillion, leading to a 40% overspend that necessitates borrowing [4] - The inflation rate has risen to 2.9% in August, the highest level since January, indicating a potential economic stagnation combined with rising prices [7][10] Agricultural Sector Challenges - The agricultural crisis, particularly in the soybean market, poses a significant threat to Trump's voter base, as farmers are facing diminishing profits and unsold stock due to trade disruptions [8][20] - The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts that soybean inventories will continue to rise, with prices expected to drop to $10.25 per bushel, complicating the subsidy situation for the Trump administration [20] International Relations and Trade Policy - Trump's trade policies have drawn criticism from international allies, with Australia highlighting the disruptive impact of U.S. agricultural subsidies on global markets [22] - The European Union has expressed skepticism about Trump's strategies, viewing them as potentially harmful to their economic interests while increasing dependency on U.S. products [12] Market Reactions - Following the Federal Reserve's decision, market reactions included a rise in the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields, while gold prices surged past $3,700, indicating a lack of confidence in the Fed's signals [24]

Group 1: Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is on the brink of a potential recession, characterized by a widening fiscal deficit, soaring public debt, and increasing financialization, creating a "perfect storm" scenario [1][2] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects a federal budget deficit of $1.9 trillion for FY 2025, which is 6.2% of GDP, significantly higher than the historical average of 3.8% over the past 50 years [2] - The federal spending as a percentage of GDP has risen from 12% to 23.3% over the past 70 years, with projections indicating it could reach 24.4% by 2035, driven primarily by social security, Medicare, and net interest expenditures [2] Group 2: Structural Weaknesses - The structural issues in U.S. fiscal health are not cyclical but deep-rooted, with federal revenues stagnating between 15% and 17% of GDP while expenditures continue to rise [2] - The anticipated revenue for FY 2024 is $5.2 trillion against expenditures of $7 trillion, leading to a deficit of $1.8 trillion, highlighting a significant structural imbalance [2] Group 3: Financialization and Market Dependency - The increasing reliance on capital gains tax as a revenue source ties government finances closely to stock market performance, with past crises leading to significant drops in tax revenue [3] - The over-dependence on financial markets, coupled with a growing current account deficit and an overvalued dollar, creates a unique risk environment [3] Group 4: Recession Dynamics - In the event of a recession, tax revenues could decline by 15%, reducing expected revenues for 2025 from $4.92 trillion to $4.2 trillion, a loss of approximately $720 billion [4] - Government spending is expected to increase by 29% during a recession, potentially raising expenditures from $6.7 trillion to $8.7 trillion, leading to a projected deficit surge from $2 trillion to $4.5 trillion, or 15.5% of GDP [4] Group 5: Labor Market and Social Pressure - A severe recession could push the unemployment rate from 4.3% to 6%, decreasing personal income tax revenues and increasing social security expenditures [5] - The government's immigration policies may further reduce labor supply, increasing wages and prices while weakening consumer purchasing power, leading to stagflation risks [5] Group 6: Debt Crisis and Market Confidence - Public debt as a percentage of GDP has escalated from 60% in 2007 to an estimated 98% in 2024, with projections suggesting it could reach 535% by the end of the century [6] - The combination of expanding deficits, shrinking GDP, and increased debt issuance creates a "debt vicious cycle," where rising debt leads to higher interest rates, further exacerbating the deficit [7] Group 7: Policy Challenges - The current policy mix may provide short-term relief but could exacerbate structural risks in the long run, with tariffs increasing import prices and inflationary pressures [8] - Immigration policy changes could reduce labor supply, negatively impacting GDP growth, while fiscal policies continue to struggle with the dilemma of increasing revenue versus cutting spending [8] Group 8: Strategic Recommendations - A multi-layered, systemic response strategy is essential, including building emergency reserves and diversifying investments to enhance financial resilience [9] - Policymakers need to balance short-term stimulus with long-term sustainability, focusing on high-return investments rather than merely expanding expenditures [9]

Core Insights - The Kenyan Ministry of Finance projects a need to raise 1.55 trillion Kenyan Shillings for the fiscal year 2025/26 to maintain operations and meet debt obligations, which is equivalent to 8% of GDP [1] Summary by Categories Fiscal Deficit and Debt Obligations - Of the total amount needed, 901 billion Kenyan Shillings is allocated to cover the fiscal deficit, while 646.3 billion is designated for repaying maturing domestic and external debts [1] Funding Sources - To address the fiscal deficit, the government plans to source 248.2 billion Kenyan Shillings through external borrowing, accounting for approximately 28% of the deficit funding, and 652.8 billion Kenyan Shillings through internal financing, which represents about 72% [1]