Core Viewpoint - Futures hedging is a core function of the futures market, aimed at stabilizing asset value by offsetting risks from spot price fluctuations through reverse transactions in the futures and spot markets [1] Group 1: Principles of Hedging - The hedging operation must adhere to four core principles: 1. Opposite Direction Principle: Establishing positions in the futures market that are opposite to the spot positions [1] 2. Equivalent Quantity Principle: The number of futures contracts must roughly match the scale of the spot assets to avoid under-hedging or over-hedging [1] 3. Same or Similar Month Principle: Selecting futures contracts that are close in trading time to the spot transactions to enhance price correlation and reduce basis risk [1] 4. Related Variety Principle: The futures variety must be highly correlated with the spot variety to ensure effective hedging [1] Group 2: Hedging Process Steps - The hedging process consists of five main steps: 1. Risk Identification: Clarifying the type and scale of the held spot assets and the direction of price risks [2] 2. Futures Contract Selection: Choosing the corresponding futures variety based on the spot variety and the timing of spot transactions [2] 3. Contract Quantity Calculation: Calculating the required number of futures contracts based on the spot quantity and futures contract unit [2] 4. Opening Transaction: Establishing positions in the futures market that are opposite to the spot direction [2] 5. Closing or Delivery: Closing the futures position after the spot transaction is completed or conducting physical delivery under certain conditions [2] Group 3: Types of Hedging - Hedging can be categorized into two types based on risk direction: 1. Buy Hedging: Suitable for entities needing to purchase spot assets in the future, allowing them to lock in costs by buying corresponding futures contracts [3] 2. Sell Hedging: Suitable for entities holding spot assets or needing to sell them in the future, allowing them to lock in selling prices by selling corresponding futures contracts [3] Group 4: Basis and Its Impact - Basis, defined as the difference between spot price and futures price, is a key factor affecting the effectiveness of hedging [3] - For sell hedging, a strengthening basis improves the hedging effect, while a weakening basis diminishes it; the opposite is true for buy hedging [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints The supply of soda ash is increasing and demand is weakening, which may intensify the supply - demand contradiction. However, in the short term, supported by macro - news and the sharp rise in coal prices, the price may maintain a volatile and strong trend. It is advisable to buy on dips in the short term. Follow - up attention should be paid to downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment changes [5] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - Futures market: The main soda ash contract opened higher and moved higher, showing a strong intra - day performance. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands had an upward - opening three - rail, indicating a short - term volatile and strong signal. The upper pressure was near the 60 - week moving average, and the support was near the 60/40 - day moving average. The trading volume increased by 1.521 million lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 15,426 lots. The intra - day high was 1277, the low was 1188, and the closing price was 1271, up 89 yuan/ton (7.53%) from the previous day's settlement price [1] - Spot market: The price was stable. Some plant loads increased slightly, with few maintenance expectations. The industry supply remained high. Downstream demand was average, mostly replenishing on demand and with low - price transactions [1] - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250, and the basis was - 21 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 1, domestic soda ash production was 697,100 tons, a decrease of 14,700 tons (2.07%) compared to the previous period. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 79.96%, a decrease of 1.69% compared to the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more increased by 0.11% [2] - Inventory: As of January 5, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5084 million tons, an increase of 100,100 tons (7.11%) from the previous period [2] - Demand: Last week, the shipment volume of soda ash enterprises decreased by 5.87% compared to the previous period, and the overall shipment rate decreased by 4.21%. The downstream demand was average, mainly consuming inventory and purchasing at low prices. The demand for light soda ash was relatively stable, while the rigid demand for heavy soda ash weakened [2] - Profit: As of January 1, the theoretical profit of the dual - alkali method was - 35.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 73.17% compared to the previous period. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - alkali method was - 95.4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 66.2% compared to the previous period. The cost - side fluctuated little [3][4] Main Logic Summary The soda ash production has decreased, but the overall operating rate is relatively high. With the gradual release of new production capacity, the total output remains high. The rigid demand for soda ash has weakened, and inventory has increased. However, due to continuous losses and a warm macro - environment, there is some short - term support. The short - term price may maintain a volatile and strong trend [5]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 2026/1/7 | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | 涨跌 | 1月6日 | 指标 | == | ====== 16/17 | == | == | ===== 20/21 | == | == | == | 24/25 | 25/26 | 大连 | 2500 | 404 | -2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2000 | 天津 | 374 | -12 | 1.500 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1000 | 日照 | 324 | -2 | 500 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 324 | 张家港 | -22 | -500 | (对主力合约) | 05/21 06/21 07/22 08/22 09/22 10/23 11/23 12/24 01/24 02/24 03/26 04/26 ...

Group 1: Index Trends - On January 6th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.5% to close at 4083.67 points with a trading volume of 1175.769 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.4% to close at 14022.55 points with a trading volume of 1630.739 billion yuan [1] - The CSI 1000 Index rose 1.43% with a trading volume of 580.815 billion yuan, opening at 7756.16, closing at 7864.9, with a daily high of 7864.9 and a low of 7755.07 [1] - The CSI 500 Index rose 2.13% with a trading volume of 571.675 billion yuan, opening at 7663.94, closing at 7814.14, with a daily high of 7814.65 and a low of 7663.66 [1] - The SSE 50 Index rose 1.9% with a trading volume of 180.048 billion yuan, opening at 3106.52, closing at 3158.76, with a daily high of 3158.76 and a low of 3106.09 [1] - The SSE 50 Index rose 1.9% with a trading volume of 180.048 billion yuan; it opened at 3106.52, closed at 3158.76, with a daily high of 3158.76 and a low of 3106.09 [1] Group 2: Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 111.02 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics, power equipment, and computer significantly driving the index up [2] - The CSI 500 rose 162.94 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics, non - ferrous metals, and national defense and military industry significantly driving the index up [2] - The SSE 300 rose 72.94 points from the previous close, with sectors such as non - bank finance, non - ferrous metals, and electronics significantly driving the index up [2] - The SSE 50 rose 59.01 points from the previous close, with sectors such as non - bank finance, non - ferrous metals, and electronics significantly driving the index up [2] Group 3: Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, the average daily basis for IM00 was - 3.62, IM01 was - 59.76, IM02 was - 111.71, and IM03 was - 334.86 [13] - For IC contracts, the average daily basis for IC00 was 7.39, IC01 was - 25.74, IC02 was - 47.13, and IC03 was - 215.14 [13] - For IF contracts, the average daily basis for IF00 was 2.31, IF01 was - 7.94, IF02 was - 11.17, and IF03 was - 55.76 [13] - For IH contracts, the average daily basis for IH00 was 0.34, IH01 was - 0.55, IH02 was 1.4, and IH03 was - 8.09 [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oils and Fats - Palm oil: There is a risk of a decline in the Malaysian palm oil market after breaking below 4000 ringgit. In China, the futures of Dalian palm oil are also expected to be weak in the short - term due to high port inventories and the potential weakness of Malaysian palm oil [1]. - Soybean oil: The CBOT soybean oil may be affected by related varieties. In China, the inventory of soybean oil in oil mills is decreasing, and the fundamentals are positive [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Attention should be paid to whether COFCO can start pressing on time. There may be a risk of further decline in the futures price, and the spot price fluctuates with the market [1]. 2.2 Cotton The ICE cotton futures are rising. The US cotton is expected to be volatile. In China, the cotton sales progress is faster than last year, and there are no obvious negative factors. The cotton price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [3]. 2.3 Sugar The ICE raw sugar futures are slightly rising, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 14.5 - 15.5 cents per pound. In China, the sugar price is expected to be weak and volatile due to the expected increase in production [4]. 2.4 Jujube The current spot market trading of jujube is light, and the price is loose. The new - season warehouse receipt cost supports the futures price. Attention should be paid to the pre - Spring Festival stocking and inventory reduction [6]. 2.5 Corn In the short - term, the corn price will be volatile due to the co - existence of farmers' reluctance to sell and policy supply. The price will be suppressed by policy releases and potential pre - festival selling pressure [8]. 2.6 Pork The spot price of pork has returned to a volatile pattern. The futures price is expected to be in a consolidation phase in the short - term, with limited upward space [10]. 2.7 Meal The global soybean supply is loose, and the South American soybean harvest is expected to be good. The domestic meal market is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, with limited downward space [13]. 2.8 Eggs The inventory of laying hens may decrease, and the supply pressure may ease. The egg price is expected to be in a low - level volatile pattern due to the relatively loose supply [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats 3.1.1 Price Changes - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8410 yuan/ton, the futures price of Y2605 decreased by 0.08% to 7856 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 1.09% to 554 yuan/ton [1]. - Palm oil: The spot price in Guangdong decreased by 1.16% to 8490 yuan/ton, the futures price of P2605 decreased by 1.12% to 8488 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 66.67% [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.20% to 10050 yuan/ton, the futures price of OI605 decreased by 0.47% to 9044 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 6.68% [1]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - The soybean - palm oil spread increased, and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased [1]. 3.2 Cotton 3.2.1 Futures Market - The futures price of cotton 2605 increased by 0.48% to 14655 yuan/ton, and the futures price of cotton 2609 increased by 0.58% to 14845 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B increased by 0.32% to 15442 yuan/ton, and the CC Index: 3128B increased by 0.38% to 15615 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2.3 Industry Situation - Industrial inventory, imports, and cotton outbound transportation volume increased, while textile industry inventory decreased [3]. 3.3 Sugar 3.3.1 Futures Market - The futures price of sugar 2605 increased by 0.11% to 5257 yuan/ton, and the futures price of sugar 2609 increased by 0.06% to 5269 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3.2 Spot Market - The spot price in Nanning decreased by 0.37% to 5330 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Kunming decreased by 0.19% to 5200 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3.3 Industry Situation - National and regional sugar production and sales decreased, and the inventory in some regions decreased [4]. 3.4 Jujube 3.4.1 Futures Price - The futures price of jujube 2601 increased by 1.82% to 9250 yuan/ton, and the futures price of jujube 2605 decreased by 0.11% to 8955 yuan/ton [6]. 3.4.2 Spot Price - The spot price of Cangzhou super - grade jujube decreased by 0.63% to 9460 yuan/ton, and the spot price of first - grade jujube remained unchanged at 8200 yuan/ton [6]. 3.5 Corn 3.5.1 Corn - The futures price of corn 2603 decreased by 0.09% to 2224 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 17.31% [8]. 3.5.2 Corn Starch - The futures price of corn starch 2603 decreased by 0.24% to 2509 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 10.91% [8]. 3.6 Pork 3.6.1 Futures Market - The futures price of the main contract decreased by 25.86% to 1190 yuan/ton, and the futures price of live hogs 2605 decreased by 0.45% to 12110 yuan/ton [10]. 3.6.2 Spot Market - The spot price in Henan decreased by 550 yuan/ton to 12850 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Shandong decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 12900 yuan/ton [10]. 3.6.3 Spot Indicators - The slaughter volume increased by 0.07% to 225069 heads, and the self - breeding and reproduction profit increased by 73.41% [10]. 3.7 Meal 3.7.1 Price Changes - The spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3100 yuan/ton, and the futures price of M2605 increased by 0.18% to 2754 yuan/ton [13]. - The spot price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu increased by 0.41% to 2440 yuan/ton, and the futures price of RM2605 decreased by 0.17% to 2361 yuan/ton [13]. 3.7.2 Spread Changes - The soybean - rapeseed meal spread increased, and the oil - meal ratio decreased slightly [13]. 3.8 Eggs 3.8.1 Futures Market - The futures price of egg 03 increased by 1.39% to 2992 yuan/500KG, and the futures price of egg 04 increased by 1.15% to 3214 yuan/500KG [15]. 3.8.2 Spot Market - The egg产区 price increased by 0.23% to 3.02 yuan/jin [15]. 3.8.3 Related Indicators - The egg - feed ratio decreased by 2.08%, and the breeding profit decreased by 13.96% [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][2][3][4] 2. Core Views 2.1. Index Futures Spread Report - The report provides the historical quantile, current spread, change from the previous day, etc., for various index futures such as IF, IH, IC, and IM, including spot - futures spreads and inter - period spreads, as well as cross - variety ratios [1] 2.2. Treasury Bond Futures Spread Report - It presents the IRR, basis, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads of different types of treasury bond futures (TS, TF, T, TL) along with their changes and historical percentile data [2] 2.3. Precious Metals Spot - Futures Report - The market may focus on the impact of US economic data on Fed policies and geopolitical situations. Precious metals are expected to maintain high volatility in January. Gold long positions above $4300 should be held, silver should be lightly long with profit - locking using options when prices hit new highs, and platinum and palladium should be lightly long on dips in the short - term [3] 2.4. Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Report - It shows the spot quotes, container shipping indexes, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data such as shipping capacity supply, foreign trade - related indicators, and overseas economic data of the container shipping industry [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Index Futures Spread Report 3.1.1. Spot - Futures Spreads - IF spot - futures spread: The current value is - 12.69, up 3.04 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 62.70% and an all - time historical quantile of 33.70% [1] - IH, IC, and IM also have corresponding spot - futures spread data with their own changes and historical quantiles [1] 3.1.2. Inter - period Spreads - For IF, different inter - period spreads such as next - month - current - month, far - month - current - month, etc., are presented with their values, changes, and historical quantiles [1] - Similar data for IH, IC, and IM are also provided [1] 3.1.3. Cross - variety Ratios - Ratios like CSI 500/CSI 300, CSI 500/SSE 50, etc., are given with their values, changes, and historical quantiles [1] 3.2. Treasury Bond Futures Spread Report 3.2.1. Basis - TS basis: The current value is 0.0200, up 0.0196 from the previous day, with a historical percentile of 13.20% [2] - TF, T, and TL also have their own basis data with changes and historical percentiles [2] 3.2.2. Inter - period Spreads - Different inter - period spreads for TS, TF, T, and TL are provided, including current values, changes from the previous day, and historical percentiles [2] 3.2.3. Cross - variety Spreads - Cross - variety spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc., are presented with their values, changes, and historical percentiles [2] 3.3. Precious Metals Spot - Futures Report 3.3.1. Futures Closing Prices - Domestic futures: AU2602 contract closed at 1004.98 yuan/g on January 6, up 1.00% from the previous day; AG2602 contract closed at 19452 yuan/kg, up 6.60% [3] - Foreign futures: COMEX gold closed at $4505.70, up 1.03%; COMEX silver closed at $81.22, up 6.16% [3] 3.3.2. Spot Prices - London gold was at $4495.14, up 1.09%; London silver was at $81.17, up 6.05% [3] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's products also have their own spot price data and changes [3] 3.3.3. Basis - Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract basis was - 3.06, down - 0.69 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 48.50% [3] - Similar data for silver, London gold - COMEX gold, etc., are also provided [3] 3.3.4. Ratios - Ratios like COMEX gold/silver, SHFE gold/silver, etc., are given with their values and changes [3] 3.3.5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.18%, up 0.2%; 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.47%, up 0.3% [3] - Dollar index was 98.60, up 0.28%; on - shore RMB exchange rate was 6.9808, down - 0.03% [3] 3.3.6. Inventory and Positions - SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged at 97704; SHFE silver inventory was 581436 kg, down - 13.16% [3] - Other inventory and position data for COMEX and ETFs are also presented [3] 3.4. Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Report 3.4.1. Spot Quotes - MAERSK's Shanghai - Europe 6 - week future freight rate was $2440/FEU on October 31, down - 0.20% from the previous day [4] - Quotes from other shipping companies like CMA, MSC, etc., are also provided [4] 3.4.2. Container Shipping Indexes - SCFIS (European route) settlement price index was 1312.71, up 15.11% from October 20; SCFIS (US West route) was 1107.32, up 28.24% [4] - Shanghai Export Container Freight Index and its sub - indexes also have their own data and changes [4] 3.4.3. Futures Prices and Basis - EC2602 futures price was 1872.7, up 0.93% from January 5; the basis of the main contract (EC2512) was - 220.5, down - 16.30% [4] 3.4.4. Fundamental Data - Global container shipping capacity supply remained unchanged at 3331.69 FITEU on October 31 [4] - Shanghai port on - time rate was 42.77%, up 133.59% from August; port calls decreased by - 9.59% [4] - Monthly export amount was $3285.65 billion, up 2.15% from August [4] - Overseas economic data such as Eurozone PMI, EU consumer confidence index, etc., are also provided [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: The inland price has bottomed out, and the port is trading on the expectation of significant inventory reduction. However, the high MTO operation rate is a prerequisite for significant inventory reduction. Currently, the MTO profit is average, which restricts the upside of methanol. Venezuelan shipments are expected to be 2 - 3 ships per month, with an average of 80,000 - 100,000 tons per month. Pay attention to subsequent developments. In the short term, shipments may remain normal. Also, monitor the changes in oil prices. The limited upside of methanol is due to the poor performance of other downstream sectors. If oil prices drive up other products, it may lift the price ceiling of methanol [1]. - **Plastic (Polyethylene)**: The inventory of major producers is neutral year - on - year. The major producers and coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, while the social inventory remains flat. The raw material and finished - product inventories of downstream enterprises are also neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe and the United States are stable, and the Southeast Asian market is also stable. The import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding products is stable, and other price differentials are fluctuating, with LD weakening. The number of maintenance projects in September is the same as the previous month, and the domestic linear production has decreased recently. Pay attention to the LL - HD conversion and the US price quotes. In 2025, the pressure from new plants is significant, so monitor the commissioning of new plants [5]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: The inventory of major producers and mid - stream enterprises is decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price differential is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price differential is neutral, and the markets in Europe and the United States are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, the price of propylene is fluctuating, and the operation rate of powder plants is stable. The proportion of drawing production is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Currently, downstream orders are average, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on the 01 contract is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH plant maintenance projects, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7]. - **PVC**: The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the ex - factory basis is - 480. The downstream operation rate is seasonally weakening, and there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. The inventory of mid - upstream enterprises is continuously accumulating. In summer, the northwest plants are seasonally under maintenance, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, monitor the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports. The recent export orders have declined slightly. The coal market sentiment is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC plant maintenance. The counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Monitor whether subsequent export orders can support the price of caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Pay attention to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and the operation rate [7]. 3. Summary by Product Methanol - **Price Data**: From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the price of动力煤期货 remained at 801, while the prices of various regional spot and futures prices of methanol changed. For example, the price of Jiangsu spot increased from 2150 to 2233, and the price of Northwest discounted to the futures price increased from 2400 to 2450 [1]. - **Daily Changes**: On January 6, 2026, compared with the previous day, the Northwest discounted to the futures price increased by 30, and the domestic basis increased by 12 [1]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained at 745, and the price of North China LL increased from 6300 to 6400. The price of the main futures contract increased from 6453 to 6579 [5]. - **Daily Changes**: On January 6, 2026, compared with the previous day, the price of North China LL increased by 100, and the price of the main futures contract increased by 130 [5]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Price Data**: From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the price of Shandong propylene increased from 5700 to 5770, and the price of East China PP decreased from 6095 to 6180 [7]. - **Daily Changes**: On January 6, 2026, compared with the previous day, the price of Shandong propylene increased by 40, the price of East China PP decreased by 30, and the price of the main futures contract increased by 93 [7]. PVC - **Price Data**: From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the price of Northwest calcium carbide remained at 2300, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China increased from 4580 to 4660 [7]. - **Daily Changes**: On January 6, 2026, compared with the previous day, the price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China increased by 130 [7].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The report presents daily data on glass and soda ash, including price changes, basis, spreads, production and sales, and inventory status [1]. Group 3: Summary of Key Points by Category Glass - **Prices**: On January 6, 2026, the low - price of 5mm large plates in Shahe was 946, unchanged from January 5 and down 4 from December 30, 2025; the low - price of large plates in Hubei was 970, unchanged from the previous two time points; FG05 contract was 1092, up 5 week - on - week and 11 day - on - day; FG09 contract was 1194, up 3 week - on - week and 11 day - on - day; FG01 contract was 956, up 6 week - on - week and 8 day - on - day [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: 01 Shahe basis was - 10 on January 6, down 10 week - on - week and 8 day - on - day; FG:1 - 5 was - 136, up 1 week - on - week and down 3 day - on - day; FG:5 - 9 was - 102, up 2 week - on - week and unchanged day - on - day [1]. - **Profits**: North China natural gas profit was - 392.4, down 1.9 week - on - week and 2.1 day - on - day; South China natural gas profit was - 188.1, unchanged; 01FG盘面North China natural gas profit was - 382.6, up 11 week - on - week and 4.6 day - on - day; 01FG盘面South China natural gas profit was - 178.3, up 12.9 week - on - week and 6.7 day - on - day [1]. - **Production and Sales**: Shahe's production and sales rate was 135, Hubei's was 118, East China's was 105, and South China's was 134. Shahe factory's production and sales were relatively high, but Shahe traders had average shipments at low prices, and the spot - futures shipments were poor; Hubei's factory transactions were weak, and the mid - stream spot - futures transactions in Hubei were also poor [1]. Soda Ash - **Prices**: On January 6, 2026, the price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1150, unchanged week - on - week and up 10 day - on - day; SA05 contract was 1190, down 23 week - on - week and up 13 day - on - day; SA09 contract was 1259, down 18 week - on - week and up 10 day - on - day; SA01 contract was 1111, down 24 week - on - week and up 16 day - on - day [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: SA01 contract basis was 39, up 24 week - on - week and down 6 day - on - day; SA:1 - 5 was - 79, down 1 week - on - week and up 3 day - on - day; SA:5 - 9 was - 69, down 5 week - on - week and up 3 day - on - day [1]. - **Cost and Profits**: North China ammonia - soda process cost was 1333.6, up 11.4 week - on - week and 1.9 day - on - day; North China ammonia - soda process profit was - 223.6, down 21.4 week - on - week and up 8.1 day - on - day; North China combined - soda process profit was - 277.2, up 5.7 week - on - week and 2.8 day - on - day [1]. - **Market Situation**: The spot price of heavy soda ash at the Hebei delivery warehouse was around 1110, and the price delivered to Shahe was around 1150. The upstream inventory of the soda ash industry increased significantly on Monday [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - **Daily Viewpoint**: On Monday, the futures market showed strong performance due to positive sentiment in energy - chemical products caused by geopolitical factors, rising overseas prices, and strong LPG spot prices. The 02 - 03 spread was 94 (-10), and the 03 - 04 spread was - 185 (-25). As of 8 pm, FEI and CP paper prices rose by $4.25 and $8.25 respectively compared to the previous trading day [1]. - **Weekly Viewpoint**: The domestic market fluctuated this week, rising after the high - opening of CP on Wednesday and then falling back. The 02 basis was 118 (-92), the 02 - 03 spread was 119 (+7), the 03 - 04 spread was - 184 (+14), and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 30 to 6398. Domestic civil gas prices were differentiated, with the cheapest deliverable being Shandong civil gas at 4250 (-20). Overseas prices rose, and the January CP official prices for propane and butane were 520/525 (+35/+30). The domestic - overseas price relationship strengthened. Overall, the Venezuela event may affect crude oil and thus LPG prices, and the overseas LPG market has near - term support. Domestically, the domestic - overseas price ratio is high but the basis is low. The strong spot and poor PDH profits may lead to negative feedback, and future drivers may be bearish. Attention should be paid to oil prices and PDH plant conditions [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data - **Price Data**: From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, prices of LPG in South China, East China, and Shandong, as well as propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - after carbon four, and Shandong alkylation oil showed various changes. For example, South China LPG rose from 4510 on December 29, 2025, to 4865 on January 6, 2026. The daily change on January 6, 2026, showed a 5 - point increase in South China LPG, 44 points in East China LPG, etc. [1] - **Spread and Basis Data**: The 02 - 03 spread and 03 - 04 spread changed both on a daily and weekly basis. The basis of 02 also changed. For example, on a daily basis, the 02 - 03 spread was 94 (-10), and on a weekly basis, it was 119 (+7) [1]. - **Overseas Market Data**: FEI and CP paper prices rose on January 6. The January CP official prices for propane and butane were higher than before. The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 15 (down 5.5 from the previous period). East China propane arrival premium, AFEI, Middle East, and US propane January FOB premiums also changed [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View No clear core view is presented in the given content. It mainly provides data on asphalt - related indicators such as basis, spreads, contract prices, trading volumes, and profits. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The basis values for different regions (Shandong, East China, South China) and their changes from 12/5 to 1/6 are presented. For example, the Shandong basis (+80) (non - Jingbo) was 42 on 12/5 and - 4 on 1/6, with a daily change of - 21 on 1/6 [2]. - **Spread**: Spreads between different contract months (01 - 03, 02 - 03, 03 - 06) are shown. For instance, the 01 - 03 spread was - 25 on 12/5 and - 51 on 1/6, with a daily change of - 8 on 1/6 [2]. 3.2 Futures Contracts - **BU Main Contract (02)**: The price of the BU main contract (02) was 2948 on 12/5 and 3144 on 1/6, with a daily increase of 11 on 1/6. The trading volume on 1/6 was 505629, a decrease of 182313 from the previous day, and the open interest was 466983, an increase of 2031 [2]. - **Combined Contracts**: The combined contract quantity increased from 4690 on 12/5 to 11260 on 1/6, with an increase of 3000 [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Crude Oil**: The price of Brent crude oil was 63.8 on 12/5 and 61.8 on 1/6, with an increase of 1.0 on 1/6 [2]. - **Asphalt Spot**: Spot prices for different regions (Jingbo, Shandong non - Jingbo, Zhenjiang, Foshan) are given. For example, the price of Shandong (non - Jingbo) asphalt was 2910 on 12/5 and 3060 on 1/6, with a decrease of 10 on 1/6 [2]. 3.4 Profit - **Asphalt - Marey Profit**: The asphalt - Marey profit was 131 on 12/5 and 468 on 1/6, with a decrease of 48 on 1/6 [2]. 3.5 Weekly Changes - Weekly changes in various indicators are provided, such as a 64 change in an unnamed indicator, 124 changes in some other indicators, and - 8 change in the 01 - 03 spread [6].