Core Viewpoints - The macroeconomic landscape last week lacked significant data guidance, with trade tensions once again dominating the market, leading to a somewhat chaotic situation [1][3] - COMEX gold and silver prices experienced declines of 2.17% and 1.68% respectively, while COMEX copper saw a decrease of 3.35% [2][4] Group 1: Precious Metals Market - COMEX gold and silver fluctuated within the range of $3269 to $3385 per ounce and $32.8 to $33.8 per ounce respectively, with gold prices down by 1.8% and silver by 1.7% [21][22] - The market's risk appetite fluctuated due to the back-and-forth nature of tariff expectations, with a rebound in precious metal prices following Trump's threats to impose 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum [4][21] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing uncertainties abroad and the supportive credit logic of the dollar [52] Group 2: Base Metals Market - COMEX copper prices showed a strong upward trend, primarily driven by concerns over potential tariffs on copper [5][6] - The copper concentrate TC weekly index was reported at -$43.80 per dry ton, indicating a stable market despite limited trading activity [8] - Domestic electrolytic copper inventories decreased to 139,300 tons, reflecting a reduction in market arrivals and a general lack of significant supply increases [14] Group 3: Inventory and Positioning - COMEX gold inventory increased by approximately 0.1 million ounces to 38.79 million ounces, while COMEX silver inventory decreased by about 690,000 ounces [36] - SPDR gold ETF holdings rose by 7.7 tons to 930 tons, indicating a shift in market positioning [41] - Non-commercial long positions in COMEX gold decreased by 3,975 contracts, while short positions fell by 14,178 contracts, suggesting a cautious market sentiment [41][42]

| 铁矿：本期全球铁矿石发运总量环比回落，但主流矿山发运量保持平稳回 | 升态势，需求端铁水产量连续三周下行，基本面边际走弱。钢材现实需求 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 继续走弱，五大钢材整体面临供增需减格局，成材下跌使得对原料采购刚 | 铁矿石 | 偏空 | 需减少。铁矿港口库存仍旧在去库，说明当前 | 240 | 的高铁水仍旧能驱动港 | | | | | | | | | 口去库，关注后续铁水持续回落状况。特朗普再次提高钢铁关税至 | 50%， | 资金和情绪端持续表现出偏空，关注市场对关税的消化反应以及减产的推 | | | | | | | | | | | | 进程度，本轮贸易冲突缓和带来的反弹行情里已经介入空单的投资者，则 | 继续持有。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 煤焦：焦煤产量高位，下游补库动力不足，523 | 家样本矿山原煤库存刷出 | 历年新高，随着铁水产量下滑以及焦煤供应的持续增加，远月 | ...

摘要周五（5月30日）国际黄金日内维持下跌走势，目前市场焦点还集中在周五将公布的美国个人消费 支出(PCE)物价指数数据上。市场将仔细分析该数据，以寻找有关美国未来货币政策的信号。 美联储利率政策与贸易不确定性成为市场焦点。周四，美国联邦上诉法院暂停贸易法院的裁定，临时恢 复前总统特朗普实施的关税措施。据市场调查显示，此举为贸易前景再添变数，增强市场避险情绪，有 助于金价保持韧性。 此外，美联储多位官员近期表示，如果经济数据和通胀进一步回落，今年进行2次降息是合理的预期。 尽管FOMC会议纪要显示目前仍保持观望态度，但市场仍倾向于年内降息。这种利率路径的不确定性， 成为黄金的中长期支撑因素之一。 【黄金技术分析】 今日周五，金价又再度跌破3300点，内盘TD价格虽保持在765上方，但涨势力度不强，白盘时段能否延 续昨日的上涨格局，不好肯定，因此还需观察等待。短期内若没有风险事件支撑，金价上涨较难持续， 所以还是不能再高位追进，或许会跌破位昨日低点，也或许不会，总之能够再回撤拉低价格，就是入场 的最佳时机，因为下一阶段的上涨快启动了。 晚间交易提醒： 20:00 德国5月CPI月率初值 周五（5月30日）国际黄 ...

交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 5 月 30 日星期五 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-5-30） | | | | 铁矿：前期政策与情绪驱动的上涨动力逐步减弱，短期内回归基本面。钢 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 材现实需求继续走弱，五大钢材整体面临供增需减格局，成材下跌使得对 | | | | | 原料采购刚需减少。当前钢厂盈利率小幅回落，本期日均铁水产量环比回 | | | 铁矿石 | 偏空 | 落 1.69 万吨至 241.91 万吨，铁水减量超市场预期，叠加外需出口提前透 | | | | | 支，在全年总需求无增量的基础下，会形成明显的前高后低格局。铁矿港 | | | | | 口库存水平仍相对偏高，对价格形成一定的压力。本轮贸易冲突缓和带来 | | | | | 的反弹行情里已经介入空单的投资者，则继续持有。 | | | | | 煤焦：焦煤产量高位，五一节后下游补库动力不足，523 家样本矿山原煤 | | | | | 库存刷出历年新高，随着铁水产量下滑以及焦煤供应的持续增加，远月 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡偏弱 | 09 ...

| 公询 各资格:证监许可【 | ICTERIA | 日度 策略参 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发布日期:2025/05 | | | | | | | | 趋势研判 | 行业板块 | 品种 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 往后看,随着市场对关税冲击的波动与政策护盘动能趋于衰减, | | | | 在缺乏增量催化因素的背景下,短期或转入震荡整固阶段。策略 | 最新 | 股指谨慎观望为主,关注宏观增量信号。 | | | | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 宏观金融 | 国 | 空间。 | | | | | 金价短期或再度进入震荡;但中长期上涨逻辑仍旧坚实。 | 農汤 | 用守 | 短期高位区间震荡，但中期上方空间有限。 | 震荡 | 日銀 | - Fel | | 海外铜矿供应扰动提振铜价,但近期国内外宏观数据偏弱压制市 | 看空 | 场风险偏好, 叠加铜下游需求有所转弱,铜价上行空间变限,短 | 期谨防回落风险。 | | | | | 近期电解铝低库存对铝价仍有支撑,但随着铝价走高,上行空间 | 農汤 ...

操作策略： 1.黄金建议回调3320-3325区域做多，止损在3312，目标看3355-3385，破位持有 受特朗普宣布暂停对欧盟加征高关税影响，市场避险情绪降温，现货黄金开盘后震荡下行，货币政策方面，欧洲 央行管委西姆库斯称6月仍存降息可能，美联储卡什卡利则表示9月前利率调整方向"尚不确定"。最新CME"美联 储观察"数据显示，6月维持利率不变的概率为94.4%，降息25个基点的概率为5.6%；7月累计降息25个基点的概率 升至23.9%，累计降息50个基点的概率仅为1.1%。综合来看，当前美国与多国的贸易谈判持续推进，翁富豪建议 大家重点关注谈判进展及地缘局势变化对黄金市场的影响。 从技术面分析来看，月线级别呈现四连阳走势，前三个上涨月后均出现单月回调，当前已连续四个月收涨，五月 份翁老师提醒需重点关注市场风险。周线级别显示黄金在3160区域获得有效支撑，中期看多观点维持不变，只有 跌破该支撑位才会转为下行压力。日线级别当前支撑位于3278区域，价格在此上方运行则保持上行趋势。四小时 级别关键支撑在3320-3325区间，这也是昨日低点位置，正如预期价格在此止跌回升，只要不跌破该区间就继续 关注上行走势； ...

本 文摘自：2025年5月26日发布的 宏观扰动再起，金属价格震荡运行 于嘉懿 ，资格证书编号： S0880522080001 刘小华 ，资格证书编号： S0880523120003 报告导读： 特朗普全面减税法案的最终落地、以及其关税威胁均存在不确定性，市场情 绪反复之下，金价或呈现震荡。国内宏观利好频出，或将对冲部分海外影响，不过仍需 关注淡季下游需求反馈，工业品价格预计震荡运行。 周期研判： 特朗普全面减税法案，在美众议院预算委员会获得通过，引发市场对于美财政赤字担忧，且特 朗普再度发动对欧盟等关税威胁，市场避险情绪上升，金价上行。然该法案的最终落地、以及特朗普关税 威胁均存在不确定性，市场情绪反复之下，金价或呈现震荡。同时国内宏观方面利好频出，或将对冲部分 海外影响，进入传统淡季，需关注下游对工业金属需求反馈，工业品价格预计震荡运行。 贵金属：市场情绪反复，金价或延续震荡。 5 月 22 日，美国总统特朗普的全面减税法案，在美国众议院 获得通过，引发市场对于美财政赤字的担忧，长期美债遭遇抛售，叠加周五特朗普提出对欧盟、苹果、三 星加征关税，美股下跌、美元指数单周下跌约 2% 。同时，据美国有线电视新闻 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: None - **Bearish**: Copper, Polycrystalline Silicon, Pure Lithium, Jiao Coal, Coke, BR Rubber, Pure Benzene, LPG - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Gold, Japanese Yen, Aluminum, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybeans, Pulp, Logs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Urea, Methanol, PE, PP, PVC, Caustic Soda [1] Core Viewpoints - The market's reaction to tariff impacts and policy support is waning, and in the absence of new catalysts, there are short - term risks of market fluctuations and adjustments [1]. - Asset shortages and a weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's warning on interest rate risks restricts upward movement [1]. - The risk of US Treasury bonds has eased, and gold prices may enter a period of oscillation, but the long - term upward trend remains [1]. - Various factors such as weak macro data, changes in supply and demand, and policy uncertainties are affecting the prices of different commodities, with most commodities expected to oscillate in the short - term [1]. Summary by Category Macro - financial - **Stock Index**: With the fading impact of tariffs and policy support, and the current rebound reaching the upper limit of the range, there is a short - term risk of oscillating adjustment in the absence of new catalysts [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortages and a weak economy are favorable, but the central bank's warning on interest rate risks restricts upward movement [1]. - **Gold**: The risk of US Treasury bonds has eased, and gold prices may enter a period of oscillation, but the long - term upward trend remains [1]. - **Japanese Yen**: It will oscillate in the short - term high - level range, but the medium - term upward space is limited [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Weak macro data and reduced downstream demand limit the upward space of copper prices, with a short - term risk of decline [1]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Low aluminum inventories support prices, but the upward space is limited as prices rise. For alumina, although the price is rising due to mine disturbances, the improvement in production profits may lead to复产, restricting the upward space [1]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Global trade frictions and policy uncertainties cause prices to oscillate in the short - term. Long - term, the supply of primary nickel is excessive, and stainless steel has supply pressure [1]. - **Tin**: Before the resumption of production at low - grade mines, the fundamentals of tin prices are strongly supported [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply remains high, it has entered a low - valuation range, and demand remains low [1]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: Downstream production schedules are rapidly decreasing, futures premiums over spot prices, and warehouse receipts are increasing [1]. - **Pure Lithium**: Mine prices are continuously falling without signs of production cuts, and downstream buyers are not active [1]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil**: The market is in a transition period from peak to off - peak season, with loose cost and supply - demand patterns, and no clear upward price drivers [1]. - **Iron Ore**: There is an expectation that iron - water production has reached its peak, but there are no new supply - side developments, and attention should be paid to steel pressure [1]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: Manganese silicon has short - term supply - demand balance with high warehouse - receipt pressure; ferrosilicon's cost is affected by thermal coal, but production cuts in the production area have tightened supply - demand [1]. Building Materials - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and with the arrival of the rainy season, there are concerns about declining demand. Soda ash has good immediate demand due to many maintenance activities in May, but faces medium - term supply overcapacity and price pressure [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: Palm oil is affected by factors such as Indonesian weather and US biodiesel proposals; soybean oil is affected by Argentine weather with limited impact; rapeseed oil is affected by potential tariff increases, but the impact has been mostly priced in [1]. - **Cotton**: There are short - term disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums, and long - term macro uncertainties. The domestic cotton - spinning industry is in the off - season, and cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's sugar production is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season, and if crude oil prices continue to be weak, it may affect the sugar - cane ratio and sugar production [1]. - **Corn and Soybeans**: Corn is expected to have a tight supply - demand situation in the medium - term, with short - term factors limiting the upward space of the futures price. Soybeans face pressure from concentrated arrivals and fast sowing progress, and low - valuation buying is recommended [1]. - **Pulp and Logs**: Pulp port inventories are rising, with some improvement in white - cardboard demand. Logs have a pattern of loose supply and weak demand, and both are expected to oscillate [1]. - **Hogs**: With the continuous restoration of hog inventories and increasing slaughter weights, the futures market has a clear expectation of sufficient supply, and the futures price is expected to remain stable [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, and Asphalt**: Crude oil and fuel oil are affected by factors such as the US - Iran nuclear agreement negotiation and OPEC+ production - increase news. Asphalt is affected by cost drag, inventory changes, and slow demand recovery [1]. - **Shanghai Rubber and BR Rubber**: Shanghai rubber is affected by factors such as rainfall and storage - purchase rumors. BR rubber's short - term upward sentiment has slowed, and there is a risk of long - term decline [1]. - **PTA, Ethylene Glycol, and Short Fiber**: PTA's supply - demand situation has improved, ethylene glycol is in a de - stocking phase, and short - fiber costs are closely related to PTA [1]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The speculative demand for pure benzene has weakened, and styrene plants have increased production and are actively selling [1]. - **Urea and Methanol**: Urea demand is weak, and methanol is expected to oscillate at a low level, with attention to factors such as plant maintenance and imports [1]. - **PE, PP, and PVC**: PE's seasonal demand is weakening, PP's production has recovered, and PVC has a weak fundamental situation but is supported by macro factors [1]. - **Caustic Soda and LPG**: Caustic soda is affected by the alumina market, and LPG is expected to decline due to factors such as tariff relaxation and the off - season [1]. Others - The market has a situation of strong expectations and weak reality. For futures, it is recommended to try long - positions in the peak - season contracts with light positions and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [1]

黄金冲高遇阻回落后，短线展开震荡调整，因此操作上建议大家，以震荡思路对待，下方支撑关注3287 美元，其次3277和3250美元，上方压力关注3315美元，其次3325和3345美元。 分析，黄金在上周四短线调整后，于上周五继续冲高，单周涨幅超过150美元，金价表现强势，主要原 因仍是市场避险情绪升温，避险买盘对黄金走势形成支撑。具体来看，美国主权信用评级，被下调至 AA1，市场对美国财政赤字与经济前景的担忧升温，俄乌谈判破裂，以色列继续进攻加沙，并可能袭击 伊朗核设施，加剧地缘紧张局势，以及上周五特朗普再度发出关税威胁，从6月1日开始将对欧盟征收 50%的关税，市场对贸易不确定性的担忧再度升温。周一开盘后黄金探底回升，早间金价下跌，主要因 上周末特朗普表示，同意将对欧盟征收关税的日期，推迟至7月9日，市场担忧情绪有所缓解，不过金价 在避险买盘推动下，收复早间跌幅。 日线图上，上周黄金连续上涨，金价刷新半个月新高，短期走势表现偏强。黄金上方压力，关注上周高 点3365美元，上周五金价上涨，两度试探这里遇阻，这里也是4小时布林带上轨位置，若黄金表现强 势，向上突破可以关注3400美元整数位置；黄金下方支撑，关注 ...

Core Viewpoint - The investment market is expected to maintain a strong upward trend in gold and silver prices, driven by geopolitical instability and high U.S. Treasury yields, with specific price targets set for the upcoming week [2][4][5]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices have risen significantly from a low of 3120 to a high of 3365, marking an increase of 210 USD, indicating strong safe-haven demand [4]. - The technical outlook suggests that gold could reach 3400 in the near term, with a potential to break above 3500 if market conditions remain favorable [4]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at 3280 and 3320, with a strong bullish trend expected as long as these levels hold [4][5]. Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - Silver prices have also followed the upward trend of gold, with recent trading indicating a peak at 33.7, aligning with bullish expectations [5][6]. - The current resistance level for silver is at 34, and while the outlook remains bullish, caution is advised against chasing prices at high levels [5][6]. - Support levels for silver are noted at 32.5, with a potential shift in trend if this level is breached [5][6]. Group 3: Domestic Market Trends - Domestic gold and silver markets are mirroring international trends, with specific contracts showing upward movements and previous positions being closed for profit [5][6]. - The domestic gold contract (沪金) is expected to see targets of 790 and 815, while the domestic silver contract (沪银) is projected to reach 8400 [5][6]. - The overall strategy for domestic markets emphasizes waiting for reasonable pullbacks before entering new positions, rather than chasing high prices [5][6]. Group 4: Oil Market Overview - The international oil market has shown resilience, with prices rebounding after testing the 60 support level, indicating a continued bullish trend as long as this support holds [6][7]. - The domestic fuel oil market is also expected to maintain a bullish outlook, with key support at 2680 and a target of 2800 [7].