欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 对冲研投研究院 编辑 | 杨兰 摘要： 出口的坚韧与国内精炼铜消费的强劲可以形成相互验证，这种情况可能在 5 月份仍会有所持续，因此短期内国内精炼铜预计仍将维 持较强的去库格局，从而对价格、升水、月差带来较为明显的支撑，同时近期国内政治局会议也强调了政策对低价格的指引需求，这 也从一定程度上相当于为工业品划定了底线思维 。 1、上周金铜窄幅震荡 贵金属方面，上周 COMEX 黄金上涨 2,5 2%，白银 上涨 2.18%；沪金2506合约 上涨 0 .77%，沪银2506 合约下跌 0 .17%。主要工业金属价格中，COMEX铜、沪铜分别变动-0.93%、+0.3%。 2、贸易谈判延续，风险偏好回升 上周宏观方面较为平静，缺乏重要经济数据指引，同时美国的贸易谈判仍在开展，美国已经率先同英国达成贸易协定，并且 也已经与中国代表在瑞士展开谈判，所以整体宏观情绪较为平静，同时上周的美国初请失业金人数也出现下降，劳动力市场 短期内仍然稳固，市场急于定价美国经济衰退或者复苏都是不太合理的交易，因此价格本身的表现也较为平静。周末中美贸 易代表在瑞士的谈判结果对短期市场的走强可能有较强的 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In May, the macro environment is changing. With the repair of overseas equity risk appetite, the boost of domestic macro - policies, and the marginal mitigation of tariff disturbances, the RMB exchange rate and the domestic equity market are likely to remain strong. The investment strategy is to go long on pullbacks and take profits on rallies. The CSI 300 Index has support at 3600 - 3700 and resistance at 4000 - 4100 [2][18] Summary by Directory Market Performance - **Market Review**: After the holiday, the index oscillated upward with all sectors closing higher. By May 9, the CSI 300 fell 0.36%, the SSE 50 fell 0.84%, the CSI 500 rose 0.46%, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.50%. IF fell 0.55%, IH fell 1.01%, IC rose 0.35%, and IM rose 0.59%. The net short positions of IF and IC held by the top 20 institutional members decreased, while those of IH and IM increased [1][4] - **Liquidity and Capital**: By May 9, the overnight Shibor rate dropped 26 basis points, and DR007 dropped 25.77 basis points. The inter - bank market interest rate declined marginally. The net outflow of funds from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 115.282 billion, with the main board having a net outflow of 75.083 billion and the GEM having a net outflow of 25.099 billion. The margin trading balance increased by about 17.394 billion. Foreign capital data was suspended [4][5] Macroeconomic Fundamentals - In April, CPI continued to be under pressure with deflationary pressure remaining. Food CPI rebounded, non - food CPI declined, and optional consumption demand was weak. PPI of production and living materials continued to decline, indicating weak manufacturing demand. The Politburo meeting emphasized more active macro - policies. After the May Day holiday, reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts were implemented. Although the Q1 economy recovered better than expected, the Q2 economy faces significant downward pressure [13][15] Views and Strategies - Overseas, the US - UK trade agreement boosted market sentiment. The US economy showed resilience, and the Fed kept interest rates unchanged. Earnings reports and trade negotiations supported the US stock market. Domestically, the index adjustment in April digested negative impacts. In May, macro - policies provided support, and market risk appetite is expected to gradually recover. The investment strategy is to go long on pullbacks and take profits on rallies [17][18]

智通财经5月12日电，丹斯克银行固收和外汇研究联席主管安德森在一份报告中表示，周末中美贸易谈 判的积极消息传出后，上周以来市场风险偏好改善的趋势预计将在本周延续。"过去一周，市场整体呈 现出风险情绪回暖的态势，很大程度上是因为贸易战出现了初步缓和的迹象。"美国财政部长贝森特也 表示，双方会谈富有成效，并透露美国将在周一公布更多细节。 丹斯克银行：本周风险情绪料持续改善 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar index fell by 0.3% to close at 100.338, indicating a decline against a basket of currencies, except for the Canadian dollar [1] - Analysts suggest that the worst phase of the trade and tariff war may be over, as the Trump administration appears to be reaching out to different countries [1] - The Canadian unemployment rate increased from 6.7% in March to 6.9% in April, which was higher than the market expectation of 6.8%, contributing to the decline of the Canadian dollar [1] Group 2 - The euro appreciated to 1.1259 USD from the previous day's 1.1225 USD, while the British pound rose to 1.3315 USD from 1.3251 USD [2] - The US dollar exchanged at 145.27 JPY, down from 145.88 JPY, and at 0.8311 CHF, slightly down from 0.8312 CHF [2] - The US dollar strengthened against the Canadian dollar, trading at 1.3930 CAD, up from 1.3928 CAD [2]

Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on stock index futures released by Ruida Futures Research Institute on May 9, 2025 [2] Report's Core View - A-share major indices oscillated upward this week, with all three major indices closing higher. The four major stock index futures also rose, with small and medium-cap stocks performing equally well as large-cap blue-chip stocks. The market trading activity increased slightly this week. The joint release of the "package of financial policies" by relevant departments increased the medium- and long-term liquidity supply and released positive signals of the monetary policy to stabilize growth, employment, and expectations, leading to a significant recovery in market risk appetite [4][85] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Performance**: IF2506 rose 2.35% this week with a -0.15% decline on Friday, closing at 3840.20; IH2506 rose 2.15% with a 0.11% increase on Friday, closing at 2683.60; IC2506 rose 2.01% with a -0.86% decline on Friday, closing at 5702.40; IM2506 rose 2.55% with a -1.10% decline on Friday, closing at 6056.20 [8] - **Spot Index Performance**: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 2.00% with a -0.17% decline on Friday, closing at 3846.16; the Shanghai 50 rose 1.93% with a 0.17% increase on Friday, closing at 2684.01; the CSI 500 rose 1.60% with a -0.90% decline on Friday, closing at 5721.72; the CSI 1000 rose 2.22% with a -1.23% decline on Friday, closing at 6082.08 [8] 2. News Overview - **Trade Data**: In the first four months of 2025, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 14.14 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%. In April, the total goods trade imports and exports were 3.84 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.6% [11] - **Financial Policies**: On May 7, the central bank, the financial regulatory administration, and the securities regulatory commission jointly introduced a "package of financial policies," including a series of measures to support market stability and expectations [11] - **Sino-US Economic and Trade Talks**: China decided to engage in talks with the US under certain conditions, emphasizing mutual respect, equal negotiation, and mutual benefit [11] - **Holiday Data**: During the May Day holiday, the cross-regional personnel flow exceeded 14.65 billion person-times. The number of domestic tourist trips was 314 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, and the total tourism spending was 180.269 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.0% [12] 3. Weekly Market Data - **Domestic Main Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.92% this week with a -0.30% decline on Friday, closing at 3342.00; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.29% with a -0.69% decline on Friday, closing at 10126.83; the STAR 50 fell 0.60% with a -1.96% decline on Friday, closing at 1006.32; the SME 100 rose 1.49% with a -0.62% decline on Friday, closing at 6294.71; the ChiNext Index rose 3.27% with a -0.87% decline on Friday, closing at 2011.77 [15] - **External Main Indices (as of Thursday)**: The S&P 500 fell 0.40% this week with a 0.58% increase on Thursday, closing at 5663.94; the UK FTSE 100 fell 0.75% with a -0.32% decline on Thursday, closing at 8531.61; the Hang Seng Index rose 1.21% with a 0.37% increase on Thursday, closing at 22775.92; the Nikkei 225 rose 1.83% with a 0.41% increase on Thursday, closing at 37503.33 [16] - **Industry Sector Performance**: All industry sectors rose, with national defense and military industry, communication and other sectors having relatively large increases. Most industry sectors had net outflows of main funds, with the basic chemical sector having a significant net outflow [20][24] - **SHIBOR Short-Term Interest Rates**: SHIBOR short-term interest rates declined, indicating a relatively loose capital market [28] - **Other Data**: This week, major shareholders had a net secondary market increase of 6.504 billion yuan, the market value of restricted shares lifted was 44.622 billion yuan, and the total trading volume of northbound funds was 507.4 billion yuan. The basis of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM oscillated [33][41][44] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Market Outlook**: A-share major indices oscillated upward this week. China's foreign trade continued to grow steadily in April, and the "package of financial policies" released on May 7 increased medium- and long-term liquidity supply and released positive signals. The market risk appetite has significantly recovered, and the trading volume has also increased [85] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position, but be vigilant about potential pullbacks if the tariff negotiations do not meet expectations [85]

换资前言： 一篇文章的指引或许有限，但长期精准的分析才是稳步提升收益的关键。或许你见过无数分析与盈利案 例，却仍受亏损困扰——这往往是因过度综合复杂策略所致，而市场本质是"少数者盈利"的博弈。与其 分散参考，不如专注跟随专业思路：建立"入场、出场、风控"三位一体的交易体系，方能实现稳定盈 利。积少成多并非难事，关键在于科学规划与严格执行。 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周五(5月9日)亚市尾盘，美元指数位于100.65附近；现货黄金在昨日暴跌后有所反弹，目前金价位于 3313美元/盎司附近。美元指数周四上涨，在美国与英国达成双边贸易协议后，市场情绪受到安抚，美 元兑避险货币日元与瑞郎走强。追踪美元兑六种主要货币的美元指数(DXY)周四收盘攀升0.73%，至 100.64，美国总统特朗普周四宣布与英国达成一项"突破性"贸易协议，该协议保留对包括汽车在内的英 国进口商品征收10%的基准关税。因英美贸易协议提升市场风险偏好，加之美元和美债收益率大幅攀 升，现货黄金周四收盘暴跌58.25美元，跌幅1.73%，报3305.89美元/盎司。周五，投资者将迎来大量美 联储官员讲话，其中美联储" ...

周四，比特币重回10万美元以上，为自今年2月以来首次突破这一心理关口。分析师表示，这反映出投资者对风 险资产的整体需求正在回升，与此同时，美股也持续从4月低点反弹，市场风险偏好明显增强。 加密货币交易所Kraken的全球经济学家Thomas Perfumo指出："比特币重新站上六位数大关，正值全球市场风险 情绪复苏之际。股票市场表现强劲，投资者对于配置风险资产的意愿正在增强，而这种复苏的'动物精神'也迅 速蔓延到了加密货币领域。" 今年1月20日，即美国总统特朗普宣誓就职当天，比特币创下历史新高，达到109,225美元。当时，市场普遍预 期新政府将为加密资产带来更宽松的监管环境。然而，随后由于特朗普政府推动的关税政策引发风险市场震 荡，比特币一度在4月初跌破8万美元。 本周四，在特朗普宣布其政府已与英国达成初步贸易协议后，美股与比特币双双上涨。Interactive Brokers高级 经济学家JoséTorres表示："投资者终于看到了'特朗普贸易隧道'尽头的光明，现在开始将注意力转向特朗普政策 组合中的增长预期。" 比特币周四上涨5%，最高触及101,515美元，下午交投于约101,094美元。与此同时， ...

金十数据5月7日讯，华创证券首席分析师姚佩表示，本次会议内容可分为两大部分：一是支持实体经 济，二是支持资本市场。针对实体经济的支持包括总量和结构两方面。总量方面，降准降息落地。结构 方面，中国央行在资金投向方面拥有更大的灵活性和指引性，当前更多倾向于科技创新和扩内需。针对 资本市场的支持主要体现在对"平准基金"和中长线资金入市的进一步坚定。姚佩认为，"一行一局一 会"打出组合拳，后续各部委或密集召开新闻发布会，可能形成"一揽子"政策的加速落地。对股市来 说，短期风险偏好的稳定比基本面修复更重要，此刻不必悲观，量比价更重要。过去10个交易日A股日 均成交额1.1万亿元，未来一到两周市场若持续放量，将构建更扎实的底部，带来风险偏好的加强和向 上反弹的信心。 华创证券："一行一局一会"打出组合拳 将带来市场风险偏好的加强 ...

廖市无双：节后市场能否走出主升浪？20250505 摘要 • 上证指数在 3,140-3,500 点区间震荡，中枢约 3,330-3,340 点，清明节 后下翻修复，上方套牢盘集中在 3,300 点以上，反弹阻力逐渐增大，形成 楔形形态，补缺口难度增加。关注外部利好能否加速突破，否则可能转折 向下。 • 节前三个交易日市场窄幅震荡，上证 50 微跌，成长指数反弹。上证 50 已 补缺口并超涨，蓝筹股指数未能表达趋势性变化，区间震荡偏空。恒生科 技指数压力位对应跳空缺口上沿，受中美贸易紧张局势影响，存在抛售压 力，预计 4 月 27 日前仍区间震荡。 • 未来市场走势以区间震荡为主，支撑位在跳空缺口下沿，压力位在跳空缺 口上沿（约 3,350-3,340 点）。中证 500、1,000 和国证 2000 震荡反映 市场交易心理，投资者认为"有缺必补"，且前期风险偏好低，集中在自 主可控、内需板块，风险偏好回升后，这些板块成为补涨主战场。 • 市场风险偏好提高，成长风格优于价值风格。上证 50 已补缺，中证 1,000、国证 2000 仍有较大缺口。前期受压制的 AI、机器人等题材开始 表现强劲，资金转向需要补涨 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices fell sharply to a two-week low on May 1, primarily due to signs of easing trade tensions, with a drop of 2% during North American trading hours [1] - The improvement in market risk appetite and a stronger US dollar, along with rising US Treasury yields, negatively impacted gold prices [1] Group 2 - The market is currently experiencing a consolidation around the 3200 level, with limited upward movement despite a few rebounds [5] - The upward trend in gold prices has been broken, indicating potential for further declines, with a focus on the 3200 support level [5] - Traders are advised to adopt a high sell and low buy strategy in the current market environment [5] Group 3 - Specific trading strategies have been communicated, including short positions at 3325 and 3323, with profit-taking at 3265 and 3215 respectively [3] - Key price levels to watch include 3248 for potential upward movement and 3200 as a critical support level [7]