Monetary Policy Stance - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) suggests increasing the intensity of monetary policy regulation [1] - The PBOC will flexibly grasp the strength and rhythm of policy implementation based on domestic and international economic and financial situations [1] Real Estate Market - The PBOC recommends increasing the revitalization of existing commercial housing and land [1] Financial Instruments & Support - The PBOC will utilize securities, funds, insurance company swap facilities, and stock repurchase and increase relending, exploring normalized institutional arrangements [1] - The PBOC will increase support for technological innovation, boost consumption, and support key areas such as "two-heavy" (重大项目) and "two-new" (新型基础设施) projects with financing [1]

NO.2开源证券：继续看好券商板块 开源证券指出，提经济、稳股市政策态度延续，货币政策适度宽松，证券行业基本面向好，估值处于低 位，基准约束有望带来资金回补，当下继续看好券商板块。选股方面推荐三条主线：(1)低估值、零售 业务具有优势的头部券商；(2)高beta弹性的金融科技标的；(3)受益于港股市场IPO扩容和活跃度提升的 香港交易所及海外业务占比高的头部券商。 ｜2025年6月27日星期五｜ NO.1华西证券：红利、科技、消费、军工等品种均值得关注 华西证券（002926）指出，本轮行情快速上涨，主要是稳市资金流入后，市场上修波动预期的结果。在 此前的低波预期下，"稳市资金推动行情企稳"这一增量信息足以对行情形成超预期推动效果。从两轮行 情的复盘来看，本轮行情适合以分散化的方式博弈，红利、科技、消费、军工等品种均值得关注；同 时，若市场在大幅上涨后动能减弱，隐含波动率大幅回落，则可能是观点分歧&行情切换的转折点。 NO.3中信证券：运营商电信业务整体回暖，看好运营商基本面改善 中信证券研报表示，2025年前5个月，通信业经济运行数据逐月提升(工信部)：电信业务收入累计完成 7488亿元，同比增长1.4%( ...

Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. Core Views - The overall market shows mixed trends across different sectors. The stock index market has a positive performance, with most indices rising. The bond market is expected to be volatile, with a downward trend in interest rates in the long - term. The commodity market, including metals, energy, and agricultural products, also has various trends influenced by factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes. [2][7] - It is recommended to take different trading strategies according to different market conditions, such as buying certain stock index futures on dips, and being cautious in the commodity market with a focus on specific opportunities and risks. [4][5] Summary by Categories Macro - financial - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day saw most indices rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.04%, the ChiNext Index up 3.11%, etc. The trading volume increased by 188.2 billion yuan. The overseas geopolitical risk has cooled down, and domestic policies are expected to support the economy. It is recommended to buy IH or IF futures on dips and consider IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity". [2][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: On Wednesday, most treasury bond futures had a slight decline. The economic data shows some disturbances and structural differentiation. The central bank's liquidity injection maintains a loose attitude, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term, with a downward trend in interest rates in the long - term. [6][7] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices rose. The market's expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has increased, and the change in the bank regulatory bill is beneficial to silver. It is recommended to buy silver on dips. [8][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price oscillated and rebounded. The overseas geopolitical situation has eased, but the uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut suppresses the sentiment. The copper raw material market is tight, and the low inventory may support the price to rise, but the weakening domestic consumption limits the upside. The price is expected to oscillate and rise, and attention should be paid to the import loss for arbitrage. [12] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price oscillated. The cost - driving force has weakened, and the demand expectation has improved. The low inventory may push the price up, but the price increase and the off - season effect limit the upside. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. [13] - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose slightly. The zinc industry is in the process of converting surplus zinc ore into zinc ingots, with a high expectation of zinc ingot output. However, some factors affect the inventory and production, and the geopolitical situation may affect the zinc ore export. [15] - **Lead**: The lead price rose. The lead acid battery export growth has slowed down, and the downstream consumption is weak. But the high - concentration long - position in the LME lead July contract and the reduction of domestic inventory make the price run relatively strongly, with limited upside for Shanghai lead. [16] - **Nickel**: The nickel price rebounded slightly. The cost of downstream iron plants is under pressure, and the nickel ore price may fall. The nickel iron price is also under pressure, and the refined nickel supply - demand is in an oversupply situation, with a risk of price decline. [17] - **Tin**: The tin price fell slightly. The supply of tin ore is short - term tight, but the terminal demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to oscillate in a certain range. [18] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate price fluctuated slightly. The marginal variables in supply, demand, and cost are limited, and it is recommended to operate cautiously. [19] - **Alumina**: The alumina price rose slightly. The alumina production capacity is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to short on rallies. [20] - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel price rose slightly. The market supply exceeds demand, and the demand is weak. The planned production cut by steel mills eases the supply - demand contradiction, but the price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term. [21][23] Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The steel price oscillated. The real estate demand is weak, and the market is in the off - season. The terminal demand is weakening, and the market confidence is low. Attention should be paid to policy trends, demand repair, and cost support. [25][26] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price was slightly down. The supply has increased, and the demand is relatively stable. The price is in a low - volatility state with support from iron production and pressure from supply. [27][28] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass price is expected to be weakly volatile due to the lack of real - estate demand boost. The soda ash supply is expected to be loose, and the price is also expected to be weakly volatile. [29] - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose. They are still in a downward trend, and the fundamentals point to a downward price. It is not recommended to buy on dips prematurely, and attention should be paid to price fluctuations caused by market sentiment. [30][31][33] - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon price rebounded. The supply is in an oversupply situation, and the demand is weak. The price may continue to decline, and it is not recommended to buy on dips. [35][36][37] Energy and Chemicals - **Rubber**: The rubber price oscillated. The bulls expect a price increase due to potential production cuts, while the bears are concerned about weak demand. The tire开工率 is rising, and it is recommended to take a neutral approach and focus on short - term operations. [39][40][43] - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil price fell slightly. The geopolitical risk has been released, and the price is in a reasonable range. It is not recommended to short further. [44][45][46] - **Methanol**: The methanol price rose. The market is expected to return to the supply - demand fundamentals, with high domestic supply and potential weakening demand. It is recommended to wait and see. [47] - **Urea**: The urea price rose. The supply is high, and the demand is relatively weak. The price is expected to have no clear trend in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see. [48] - **Styrene**: The styrene price is expected to be oscillated and bearish. The cost is relatively stable, the supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. [49] - **PVC**: The PVC price rose. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to decline steadily under the background of geopolitical easing. [51][52] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is expected to decline. The inventory is accumulating, and it is recommended to short on rallies with caution. [53] - **PTA**: The PTA price rose. The supply is expected to increase after the end of the maintenance season, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long following PX. [54] - **Para - xylene**: The PX price fell. The supply and demand are in a dynamic balance, and the price is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long following the decline. [55][56] - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The PE price rose slightly. The supply pressure may ease, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate. [57] - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The PP price rose slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally. The price is expected to be bearish in June. [58] Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The hog price showed mixed trends. The northern region may raise prices, while the southern region has stable supply. It is recommended to go long on near - term contracts at low prices and short on long - term contracts at high prices. [60] - **Eggs**: The egg price mostly fell. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand is average. The price is expected to be mostly stable with a few slight declines. It is recommended to short on rallies. [61] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The soybean and rapeseed meal prices fell. The domestic soybean meal inventory is increasing, and the supply is relatively sufficient. It is recommended to go long at the low - end of the cost range and pay attention to supply pressure at the high - end. [62][63] - **Oils and Fats**: The oil and fat prices oscillated. The Brazilian biodiesel policy is beneficial, but there are still some negative factors. The price is expected to oscillate. [64][65][66] - **Sugar**: The sugar price rebounded. The Brazilian sugar production is expected to change, and the import profit window is open. The sugar price is expected to decline steadily. [67] - **Cotton**: The cotton price rose. The market is in the off - season, and the high basis affects consumption. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. [68]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trends of various futures on June 25, 2025. Index futures are expected to fluctuate strongly; crude oil futures are expected to fluctuate weakly; silver, copper, rebar, iron ore, glass, and fuel oil futures are expected to fluctuate weakly; lithium carbonate futures are expected to fluctuate strongly [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - **Index Futures**: Expected to fluctuate strongly on June 25. For example, IF2509 has resistance levels at 3880 and 3900 points and support levels at 3852 and 3830 points [2]. - **Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures**: The T2509 contract is likely to fluctuate and consolidate on June 25, with resistance levels at 109.12 and 109.18 yuan and support levels at 109.00 and 108.90 yuan [3]. - **Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures**: The TL2509 contract is likely to fluctuate and consolidate on June 25, with resistance levels at 121.1 and 121.3 yuan and support levels at 120.8 and 120.7 yuan [3]. - **Gold Futures**: The AU2508 contract is likely to fluctuate and consolidate on June 25, with support levels at 764.3 and 758.8 yuan/gram and resistance levels at 772.5 and 775.0 yuan/gram [3]. - **Silver Futures**: The AG2508 contract is likely to fluctuate weakly on June 25, with support levels at 8537 and 8496 yuan/kg and resistance levels at 8743 and 8785 yuan/kg [3]. - **Copper Futures**: The CU2508 contract is likely to fluctuate weakly on June 25, with support levels at 78000 and 77600 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 78500 and 78700 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum Futures**: The AL2508 contract is likely to fluctuate weakly on June 25, with support levels at 20210 and 20170 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 20320 and 20430 yuan/ton [3]. - **Alumina Futures**: The AO2509 contract is likely to fluctuate and consolidate on June 25, with resistance levels at 2929 and 2955 yuan/ton and support levels at 2870 and 2844 yuan/ton [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate Futures**: The LC2509 contract is likely to fluctuate strongly on June 25, attacking resistance levels at 61900 and 63000 yuan/ton, with support levels at 60600 and 59500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Rebar Futures**: The RB2510 contract is likely to fluctuate weakly on June 25, testing support levels at 2961 and 2949 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 2983 and 2991 yuan/ton [4]. - **Hot - rolled Coil Futures**: The HC2510 contract is likely to fluctuate weakly on June 25, testing support levels at 3078 and 3066 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 3099 and 3111 yuan/ton [4]. - **Iron Ore Futures**: The I2509 contract is likely to fluctuate weakly on June 25, testing support levels at 695 and 689 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 705 and 710 yuan/ton [4]. - **Coking Coal Futures**: The JM2509 contract is likely to fluctuate and consolidate on June 25, with resistance levels at 792 and 807 yuan/ton and support levels at 772 and 760 yuan/ton [4]. - **Glass Futures**: The FG509 contract is likely to fluctuate weakly on June 25, testing support levels at 998 and 987 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 1021 and 1026 yuan/ton [4]. - **Soda Ash Futures**: The SA509 contract is likely to fluctuate weakly on June 25, testing support levels at 1147 and 1135 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 1164 and 1180 yuan/ton [4]. - **Crude Oil Futures**: The SC2508 contract is likely to fluctuate weakly on June 25, testing support levels at 500 and 497 yuan/barrel, with resistance levels at 519 and 525 yuan/barrel [5]. - **Fuel Oil Futures**: The FU2509 contract is likely to fluctuate weakly on June 25, testing support levels at 2997 and 2978 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 3065 and 3080 yuan/ton [5]. - **Natural Rubber Futures**: The RU2509 contract is likely to fluctuate strongly on June 25, attacking resistance levels at 13790 and 13950 yuan/ton, with support levels at 13660 and 13600 yuan/ton [7]. - **Pulp Futures**: The SP2509 contract is likely to fluctuate weakly on June 25, testing support levels at 5072 and 4994 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 5136 and 5150 yuan/ton [7]. Macro News and Trading Tips - A grand military parade will be held in Beijing on September 3 to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti - Fascist War [8]. - Six departments including the central bank jointly issued a guiding opinion on financial support for boosting and expanding consumption, with a 500 billion yuan re - loan for service consumption and elderly care [8]. - The 2025 Summer Davos Forum opened, and most economists at the forum's chief economist briefing noted the stable performance of the Chinese economy, with an expected growth rate of over 5% in the second half of the year [8]. - The central bank will conduct 300 billion yuan of MLF operations on June 25, with a net MLF injection of 118 billion yuan in June, and a total net injection of medium - term liquidity of 318 billion yuan after including the 200 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations [9]. - Many experts expect the central bank to continue to cut interest rates and reserve requirements in the second half of the year, with a possible interest rate cut of up to 30 basis points and a reserve requirement cut of up to 0.5 percentage points [9]. - When receiving personal pensions, individuals need to pay 3% personal income tax on the amount received, regardless of whether it is principal or investment income [9]. - The second review draft of the revised Anti - Unfair Competition Law plans to regulate unfair competition behaviors such as infringement of data rights and malicious transactions [9]. - The EU restricts Chinese enterprises' participation in its medical device public procurement, and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce strongly opposes it [10]. - Israel and Iran agreed to a full - scale cease - fire [10]. - Global central banks are considering shifting funds from the US dollar to gold, the euro, and the RMB [10]. - Fed Chairman Powell said the Fed is in a favorable position to wait patiently before adjusting its monetary policy stance, but he does not rule out an earlier interest rate cut [10]. - Fed's Kashkari said the Fed may cut interest rates even if inflation remains high if the labor market deteriorates significantly [11]. - The US banking industry is about to receive the most significant capital relaxation since 2008 [11]. - The US current account deficit in the first quarter soared to a record high of $450.2 billion, and the goods trade deficit reached a record high of $466 billion [12]. - The US consumer confidence index in June unexpectedly dropped to 93 [12]. Commodity Futures - related Information - Domestic commodity futures fell across the board in night trading, with energy products leading the decline. Crude oil fell 9.27%, fuel oil fell 6.05%, etc. [12]. - International oil prices dropped sharply on June 24, with US crude oil futures down 5.11% and Brent crude oil futures down 5.19% [12]. - International precious metal futures generally fell on June 24, with COMEX gold futures down 1.66% and COMEX silver futures down 0.88% [13]. - Most London base metals fell on June 24, with LME aluminum down 0.79% and LME tin down 0.71% [13]. - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose on June 24, and the RMB central parity rate against the US dollar reached its highest level since November 2024 [13]. - The US dollar index fell on June 24, and non - US currencies generally rose [14]. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Index Futures**: On June 24, the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures all showed upward trends, with increased trading volume in the A - share market. Many foreign asset management institutions are optimistic about the structural opportunities in the Chinese market [14][17]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On June 24, the main contracts of ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures fell. The central bank conducted 406.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 209.2 billion yuan [35]. - **Gold Futures**: On June 24, the main contract of gold futures fell, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in a wide range in June 2025 [42]. - **Silver Futures**: On June 24, the main contract of silver futures showed a slight decline, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in June 2025 and may reach a new high [50]. - **Copper Futures**: On June 24, the new main contract of copper futures rose slightly, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in a wide range in June 2025 [55]. - **Aluminum Futures**: On June 24, the main contract of aluminum futures fell slightly, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in a wide range in June 2025 [59]. - **Alumina Futures**: On June 24, the main contract of alumina futures fell slightly, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in a wide range in June 2025 [62]. - **Lithium Carbonate Futures**: On June 24, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures rose strongly, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly on June 25 [66]. - **Rebar Futures**: On June 24, the main contract of rebar futures fell, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in June 2025 [66]. - **Hot - rolled Coil Futures**: On June 24, the main contract of hot - rolled coil futures fell slightly, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly on June 25 [73]. - **Iron Ore Futures**: On June 24, the main contract of iron ore futures fell slightly, and it is expected to fluctuate in a wide range in June 2025 [76]. - **Coking Coal Futures**: On June 24, the main contract of coking coal futures fell, and it is expected to fluctuate and consolidate on June 25 [83]. - **Glass Futures**: On June 24, the main contract of glass futures rose, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly on June 25 [85]. - **Soda Ash Futures**: On June 24, the main contract of soda ash futures fell, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly on June 25 [87]. - **Crude Oil Futures**: On June 24, the main contract of crude oil futures fell sharply, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in a wide range in June 2025 [89]. - **Fuel Oil Futures**: On June 24, the main contract of fuel oil futures fell sharply, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly on June 25 [93]. - **Natural Rubber Futures**: On June 24, the main contract of natural rubber futures fell, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly on June 25 [93]. - **Pulp Futures**: On June 24, the main contract of pulp futures fell, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly on June 25 [97].

美联储博斯蒂克：就业市场仍然稳健，消费仍然有韧性。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Hong Kong stock market is experiencing renewed vitality, with significant inflows into thematic ETFs and an increase in public fund layouts targeting specific investment opportunities [1][4]. - Since June 10, over 10.3 billion yuan has been net subscribed to Hong Kong thematic ETFs, with major inflows into sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals, technology, and dividends [2]. - Several ETFs have reached historical highs in terms of shares, with notable increases in fund sizes compared to the end of last year, indicating strong investor interest [2]. Group 2 - Long-term capital is increasingly evident in newly established Hong Kong thematic ETFs, with significant holdings from pension products and insurance funds [3]. - The pace of insurance capital involvement has accelerated, with 16 instances of capital injection noted by the end of May, suggesting a shift towards a more rational and long-term investment approach in the Hong Kong market [3]. - Public funds are intensifying their focus on the Hong Kong market, with multiple new thematic index funds being launched, indicating a growing interest in this investment landscape [4]. Group 3 - The Hong Kong stock market is perceived as having relatively low valuations compared to other major global markets, making it an attractive investment destination [5]. - Emerging consumer trends driven by demographic changes and evolving consumption patterns are expected to create core battlegrounds in sectors like emotional consumption, cost-effective products, and domestic brands going global [5]. - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is undergoing a systematic revaluation, while advancements in artificial intelligence are revitalizing the technology sector in Hong Kong [5].

美联储巴尔金：就业市场和消费仍然保持坚挺。 ...

宏观经济分析报告 | | 政策动向等待数据确认 | | --- | --- | | | -宏观经济周报 | | 分析师:周喜 | SAC NO: S1150511010017 2025年6月20日 | | 证券分析师 . | 就外围环境而言,美国方面,尽管与 GDP 联系更为密切的"控制组"零售销 | | 周喜 | 售 5 月环比增速较此前有所改善,但在前期抢购热潮消退下,整体零售销 | | 022-28451972 | | | zhouxi@bhzq.com | 售环比增速还是现近 1 年以来最大降幅,特别是汽车销售成为主要拖累。 | | | 另外,代表服务业的餐厅和酒吧销售额环比增速也出现大幅下降。中美临时 | | 宋亦威 | 关税协议有助于短期消费者情绪缓和,但更实质的劳动力市场走弱风险仍 | | SAC NO: S1150514080001 | 会给消费带来压力。同样,5月工业产出也释放出经济放缓的信号,剔除波 | | 022-23861608 | | | songyw@bhzq.com | 动较大的汽车制造业外的其他制造业产出环比增速连续两月下滑,尚在讨 | 研 究 报 F 周 报 有色金属价格涨跌 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall performance of the main contracts of Treasury bond futures this week was a volatile upward trend, with the 30 - year variety showing a relatively strong trend. The overall environment is favorable for the bond market, and Treasury bond futures may experience a slightly more volatile trend. For trading - type investments, a band - operation strategy is recommended [5][37][38] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bond Futures Market - This week, the main contracts of Treasury bond futures showed a volatile upward trend. By the end of the week, the 30 - year Treasury bond rose 0.71%, the 10 - year Treasury bond rose 0.14%, the 5 - year Treasury bond rose 0.12%, and the 2 - year Treasury bond rose 0.09% [5] Consumption Data - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41326 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%, exceeding the market expectation of 4.9%. From January to May, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.0% year - on - year. The retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles were 184324 billion yuan, an increase of 5.6% [8] - In May, driven by the trade - in policy, the retail sales of household appliances and audio - visual equipment, communication equipment, cultural and office supplies, and furniture in units above the designated size increased by 53.0%, 33.0%, 30.5%, and 25.6% respectively. The sales of basic daily necessities and some upgraded consumer goods also showed good growth momentum. The retail sales of automobiles in units above the designated size increased by 1.1% year - on - year [10] Investment Data - From January to May, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 4.0%. Among them, the broad - based infrastructure investment (including electricity) increased by 10.42%, the narrow - based infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 5.6%, the manufacturing investment increased by 8.5%, and the real estate development investment decreased by 10.7% [13] Real Estate Market - From January to May, the sales area of newly - built commercial housing nationwide was 35315 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%, and the sales volume was 34091 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.8% [15] - In the first half of June, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 220,000 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10% [17] - In May, the sales prices of second - hand residential properties in first - tier cities decreased by 0.7% month - on - month, with the decline rate expanding by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month. The sales prices of second - hand residential properties in second - and third - tier cities decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, with the decline rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points [21] Service Industry and Industrial Production - In May, the national service industry production index increased by 6.2% year - on - year. Among them, the production indexes of information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services, and wholesale and retail industries showed relatively fast growth [23] - In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year, slightly exceeding the market expectation of 5.7%. The product sales rate of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 95.9%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7 percentage points [26][28] Unemployment Rate - In May, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.0%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, and the same as the same period last year [31] Capital Market Interest Rates - This week, the capital market interest rates remained stable. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.37%, and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.52%. The average issuance rate of one - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.65%, a slight decline. The loan prime rate (LPR) announced on June 20 was the same as last month [34] Market Logic and Trading Strategy - The market logic is that from January to May, the fixed - asset investment growth rate was lower than market expectations, while May's consumption growth was significantly better than expected. Exports maintained a relatively high positive growth, industrial production grew steadily and rapidly, the unemployment rate decreased slightly, and the social financing scale and credit data were close to market expectations. The overall environment is favorable for the bond market [37] - The trading strategy is that trading - type investments should adopt a band - operation strategy [38]

Key Recommendations - Consumption performance is strong, but real estate drag deepens, as May economic data shows retail sales up 6.4% YoY, fixed asset investment up 3.7% YoY, and industrial output up 5.8% YoY [6][8] - The white liquor sector continues to bottom out, with a focus on seasonal prosperity in the food and beverage industry, as the sector index fell 4.37% [11][12] - Insurance companies will fully implement new accounting standards starting in 2026, with a focus on policy expectations from the Lujiazui Forum [15][17] - The price of pesticides is rising, presenting opportunities in the agricultural chemical sector, with a significant increase in the price of a key pesticide [19][20] - Nvidia plans to build multiple AI factories in Europe, indicating a strong demand for AI chips and computing power [24][25] Economic Observations - The online retail sector significantly contributed to the retail sales growth, with a 6.3% YoY increase in online retail sales, driven by the "618" shopping festival and trade-in policies [7][8] - Industrial production showed resilience despite a slight decline, with the industrial value-added growth at 5.8% YoY, still above last year's average [8][9] - Fixed asset investment growth is declining, particularly in real estate, with a cumulative YoY decline of 10.7% in real estate investment [10][12] Sector Insights - The white liquor sector is under pressure due to policy impacts and price declines, with major brands experiencing significant price drops [12][13] - The beer sector is showing signs of recovery as the consumption season approaches, with a 4.8% YoY increase in production [13][14] - The insurance sector is expected to see a long-term influx of capital as new accounting standards are implemented, enhancing market activity [15][18] Industry Trends - The agricultural chemical sector is experiencing price increases, particularly for key products, which may benefit certain companies [19][20] - The mechanical equipment sector is seeing a slight decline in domestic sales but maintains growth in exports, with a 5.42% increase in excavator exports [30][32] - The tire industry is expected to see improved profitability as raw material prices decline, with a positive outlook for demand as weather warms [35][36] Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-end liquor and regional leaders in the white liquor sector, with specific companies recommended for investment [14] - In the agricultural chemical sector, companies benefiting from rising pesticide prices are highlighted for potential investment [19][20] - In the mechanical equipment sector, companies with strong global expansion strategies are recommended for investment [34]