Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [6] Core Insights - The construction sector saw a 1.6% increase last week, in line with the CSI 300, with emerging business-related stocks performing well, while traditional infrastructure state-owned enterprises showed weaker performance [1][4] - The fiscal expansion in February supported a rapid growth in social financing, which is expected to further drive fixed asset investment, particularly in infrastructure [2][16] - The inclusion of "deep-sea technology" in the government work report indicates that the deep-sea economy is poised to become a new engine for economic growth, with the marine economy expected to exceed 10 trillion yuan in 2024 [3][18] Summary by Sections 1. Fiscal Expansion and Social Financing - In February, new social financing reached 2.23 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 737.4 billion yuan, with government bond net financing accounting for 76% of the month's social financing increment [2][16] - The acceleration of government financing is expected to lay a better foundation for the improvement of infrastructure physical volume [2][16] 2. Market Review - The construction index rose by 1.62% from March 10 to March 14, with notable gains in the construction decoration and landscaping engineering sectors [4][22] - Key stocks that performed well include Matrix Co. (+24.58%) and Dongyi Risheng (+21.75%) [4][22] 3. Investment Recommendations - Focus on the conversion of infrastructure physical volume and cyclical upward elasticity, recommending high-growth local state-owned enterprises and undervalued blue-chip central enterprises [5][27] - Emphasize the transformation of the construction sector and the rising prosperity of emerging businesses, particularly in computing power and cleanroom sectors [5][29] - Pay attention to major hydropower projects, deep-sea economy, and low-altitude economy as thematic investment opportunities [5][30]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant shift in Germany's fiscal policy, marked by a call from the incoming Chancellor Friedrich Merz for expansive economic and defense spending, which has led to unprecedented volatility in the German bond market and broader European financial markets [1][2][23]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On March 5, 2025, Germany's bond market experienced its largest upheaval in 35 years, with the 10-year bond yield rising by 30 basis points, the highest single-day increase since March 1990 [4][6]. - The DAX index surged over 3%, achieving a year-to-date increase of 15% [5]. - Following the announcement, bond yields in France, Italy, and Spain rose by more than 25 basis points, indicating a ripple effect across Europe [7]. Group 2: Implications for European Economy - Analysts view Germany's fiscal policy shift as a potential "game changer" for European defense and economic policy, with implications for other Eurozone countries [2][9]. - The euro's exchange rate strengthened significantly, with market sentiment reaching a five-year high regarding the euro's performance against the dollar [7][8]. - The market is reassessing the European Central Bank's monetary policy, reducing expectations for further interest rate cuts from 84 basis points to 67 basis points by year-end [8]. Group 3: Long-term Economic Outlook - The fiscal expansion plan is seen as a response to long-standing calls for loosening Germany's strict fiscal discipline, which has historically constrained economic growth [6][11]. - If domestic investment stimulates GDP by 1% annually, combined with 1%-1.5% foreign defense spending, Germany's economic growth could approach 1.5%-2% by 2027 [13]. - However, the short-term economic outlook remains uncertain, with challenges such as labor market decline and geopolitical uncertainties still looming [11][12]. Group 4: Risks and Concerns - High debt levels in Europe raise concerns about the sustainability of rising bond yields, which could lead to increased financing costs for already indebted countries [2][16]. - The disparity between German bond yields and swap rates has reached a record high, indicating market expectations of increased bond issuance by the German government [17][18]. - Potential scenarios include some countries struggling with high financing costs, Germany possibly needing to bail out other nations, or a return to market stability [19][20][21].

2025 年 03 月 02 日 宏观类●证券研究报告 PMI 节后反弹，投资好于消费 事件点评 PMI 点评（2025.2） 投资要点 分析师 秦泰 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910523080002 qintai@huajinsc.cn 报告联系人 周欣然 zhouxinran@huajinsc.cn 相关报告 LPR 四度持平，十债利率升至 1.7%，释放 何种信号？——华金宏观·双循环周报（第 95 期） 2025.2.21 信贷创纪录"开门红"，年初集中还是全年趋 高？——金融数据速评（2025.1）2025.2.14 内外形势有何变化，货币如何调整优化？— —《货币政策执行报告》（2024Q4）解读·周 报（第 94 期） 2025.2.14 核心通胀不降反升，美联储还能降息吗？— —美国 CPI 点评（2025.1） 2025.2.13 油价回升服务走高，CPI 稍好于预期—— CPI、PPI 点评（2025.1） 2025.2.9 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 节后 PMI 如期明显反弹，投资回暖快于消费。由于 1 月跌幅较深，1 ...