癌周研选 本周避险情绪主导全球金融市场，风险资产普遍遭遇抛售。全球主要股市（尤其是科技股）和大宗商品（原油、基本金属）普遍下跌。在这一传导效应 下，A股市场同样经历调整，上证指数失守3900点。新能源、光伏、电力设备等板块回调明显，银行、船舶制造、消费等少数概念相对抗跌。 11.23 2025 星期日 如何看待近期市场的调整？前期热门科技股的估值消化是否已经到位？请看本周机构研判。 解 锁 市场 最 强 音,把 握 投 资 机 会! 本周避险情绪主导全球金融市 场,风险资产普遍遭遇抛售。 全球主要股市(尤其是科技股) 和大宗商品(原油、基本金属) 普遍下跌。在这一传导效应下, A股市场同样经历调整,上证指 数失守3900点。新能源、光伏、 电力设备等板块回调明显,银 行、船舶制造、消费等少数概念 相对抗跌。 如何看待近期市场的调整?前期 热门科技股的估值消化是否已经 申万宏源：调整后春季行情更值得期待 9月以来AI产业链已处于高位震荡阶段。与此同时，近期美联储货币宽松低于预期，这进一步引发了全球高风险资产普跌。调整背后的本质还是资产性价 比降低，脆弱性提高，对流动性冲击的敏感度提升。对比2014年初的创业板、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance of Dongfang Hongwan's overseas fund, led by Chairman Dan Bin, has sparked diverse interpretations in the market, with a three-year return of 138.98% ranking third among global hedge funds, while its one-year return of 26.63% is slightly above the domestic average but significantly lower than the top performers [1][4]. Group 1: Fund Performance - The overseas fund's three-year return of 138.98% places it among the top three hedge funds globally, indicating the effectiveness of its strategy focused on "investing in great companies and cross-market allocation" [3][5]. - The one-year return of 26.63% is slightly above the domestic average of 24.32%, but it falls short compared to the top 5% performers, which achieved returns of 82.48% [4][5]. - Domestic products under Dan Bin's management have shown lower performance, with returns around 15%, significantly lagging behind the average of 24.32% for similar funds [4]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The fund's investment strategy heavily emphasizes AI, with a significant portion of its $1.292 billion portfolio allocated to AI-related companies, including major holdings in Nvidia and Google [2][3]. - Dan Bin's recent investments include new positions in Alibaba and key players in the AI supply chain, reflecting a commitment to long-term growth in the technology sector [2][3]. - The focus on hard technology and AI supply chain components, such as Astera Labs and Broadcom, highlights the fund's strategic positioning within the evolving AI landscape [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Perspectives - Market reactions to the fund's performance have been mixed, with some investors expressing concerns over short-term results, questioning whether Dan Bin has been "over-mythologized" [5][6]. - Analysts suggest that the divergence in performance between long-term value investing and short-term speculative strategies is a natural outcome in a structural bull market [5][6]. - Dan Bin's commitment to a long-term investment philosophy is evident in his focus on established leaders in the AI sector, indicating a preference for stability over short-term gains [6].

Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a significant downturn, with the ChiNext Index dropping 6.15% last week and falling below the 3000-point mark on November 21, closing at 2920.08 points [2] - The Hong Kong stock market also faced declines, with the Hang Seng Index falling over 5% and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropping more than 7% [2] - Major Asian markets saw widespread declines, with the South Korean Composite Index and Nikkei 225 Index experiencing drops of nearly 4% and over 3.48%, respectively [2] Sector Analysis - The technology sector, particularly in computing, semiconductors, and batteries, underwent significant corrections, with the electronic sector experiencing a weekly decline of 5.89% [3] - The lithium battery supply chain saw a sharp drop, with the lithium mining index falling 9.67% in a single day, affecting multiple stocks such as Shengxin Lithium Energy and Ganfeng Lithium, which hit their daily limit down [3] - The computing industry also faced a collective pullback, with notable declines in stocks like Xin Yi Sheng and Zhong Ji Xu Chuang [3] Analyst Insights - Multiple brokerages indicated that the A-share market is in a mid-term adjustment phase, but the long-term bullish trend remains intact [4][5] - Analysts from Pacific Securities and Zheshang Securities noted that the current market adjustment is in its early stages, with potential further declines in global markets impacting A-share risk appetite [5] - Shenwan Hongyuan's report suggested that while the AI industry trend is not over, there will be fluctuations in the short term, aligning with historical patterns of "high-level oscillation" during bull markets [5] Market Sentiment - Despite short-term pressures, analysts believe that the long-term bullish trend is still expected, with a focus on fundamental improvements as a basis for future market performance [6] - The ChiNext Index, a key driver of the current bull market, has seen a 12% decline since its peak on October 30, but this adjustment is viewed as a normal part of the bull market cycle [7][8] - The current valuation of the ChiNext Index has decreased to a price-to-earnings ratio of 37.72, indicating a release of pressure and a lack of significant overvaluation risk [8]

Group 1 - The stock private equity position index has reached a new high of 81.13% as of November 14, 2023, marking a 1.05 percentage point increase from the previous week and a 0.97 percentage point increase from the year-to-date peak of 80.16% at the end of October [1] - Over 84% of stock private equity firms have a position of no less than 50%, with 65.90% of firms having positions above 80%, indicating a strong bullish sentiment among private equity firms [1] - The continuous rise in the stock private equity position index is attributed to multiple factors, including positive market performance, ongoing policy support, and proactive actions from private equity institutions [1] Group 2 - The A-share market has shown a clear upward trend since August, with significant improvements in the performance of stock private equity products, which has bolstered the confidence of private equity institutions to increase their positions [2] - Policy signals promoting the long-term healthy development of the capital market and the trend of residents shifting assets to the equity market have reinforced the consensus on the long-term investment value of A-shares [2] - Different scales of stock private equity firms have varying position indices, with those managing over 100 billion yuan having a position index of 87.07%, while those managing between 20 billion and 50 billion yuan have a position index of 78.67% [2] Group 3 - The most significant increase in positions has been observed in the hundred billion yuan level stock private equity firms, with their position index rising from 79.09% to 87.07%, indicating a strong bullish trend [3] - Over 70% of hundred billion yuan level stock private equity firms have positions above 80%, while only 0.80% have positions below 20%, reflecting a clear trend of increasing allocations [3] - Despite recent market fluctuations, industry experts maintain a positive outlook on the medium to long-term investment value of the A-share market [3] Group 4 - Investment opportunities are seen in the AI industry chain, with improvements expected in certain consumer sectors due to the "anti-involution" environment [4] - The competitive edge of China's manufacturing sector is strengthening, with breakthroughs in "bottleneck" technologies, making high-end manufacturing and hard technology fields worthy of attention [4] - The growth potential of the biopharmaceutical industry is gaining market interest, and the profitability outlook for sectors like chemicals is improving, indicating potential shifts in investment focus from high-dividend sectors to cyclical and growth assets [4]

Core Insights - The domestic ETF market in China has experienced rapid growth, with total assets exceeding 5.8 trillion yuan as of November 12, 2025, an increase of over 2 trillion yuan from the end of 2024 [1] - Stock ETFs have seen a nearly 30% growth in the first three quarters of 2025, reaching 3.71 trillion yuan [1] - Huabao Fund has shown outstanding performance in the equity ETF category, with assets reaching 131.49 billion yuan, a 60.80% increase from the end of 2024 [1] ETF Market Growth - The total scale of domestic ETFs has surpassed 5.8 trillion yuan, marking significant growth in the market [1] - Stock ETFs have grown by nearly 30% in 2025, indicating strong investor interest [1] Huabao Fund's Performance - Huabao Fund's equity ETFs reached a historical high of 131.49 billion yuan, reflecting a 60.80% increase from 2024 [1] - The fund has innovatively expanded into Hong Kong stock ETFs, offering unique products that support T+0 trading and feature a diverse range of industry themes [1][3] Innovative Product Offerings - Huabao Fund has launched several unique ETFs, including the Hong Kong Information Technology ETF, which is the first to track the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Information Technology Composite Index [1][5] - The fund's product line includes various thematic ETFs, such as those focusing on innovation in pharmaceuticals and the internet, showcasing a comprehensive market approach [3][6] Performance of Thematic Indices - The Hong Kong Information Technology Index has outperformed other major technology indices in recent years, with a cumulative increase of 89.6% from December 30, 2022, to October 31, 2025 [2] - The index's annualized return stands at 25.71%, indicating strong performance relative to peers [2] AI and Technology Focus - Huabao Fund has developed an ETF matrix covering the AI industry chain, including products focused on computing power, large models, and applications [5][6] - The newly launched Hong Kong Automotive 50 ETF targets leading automotive companies, enhancing investment opportunities in the AI application sector [6][7] Dividend Strategy Development - Huabao Fund has established a robust high-dividend ETF family, including the Hong Kong Dividend ETF, which has attracted significant market interest and net inflows [8][9] - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF has shown a 24.12% increase since its inception, outperforming the CSI 300 Index during the same period [8][9] Trading Efficiency - Many of Huabao's Hong Kong ETFs support T+0 trading, enhancing liquidity and investment efficiency, particularly in cross-border and thematic products [12] - The overall performance of the Hong Kong stock market has been favorable, with the Hang Seng Index ranking third globally in terms of growth [12][13] Foreign Investment Trends - There has been a significant inflow of foreign capital into the Hong Kong market, with net purchases exceeding 1.26 trillion yuan this year, indicating a growing demand for Hong Kong stocks [14] - The trend reflects a broader shift in global asset allocation strategies, with increased interest in Chinese technology innovation [14]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the overall performance of the fund market has been positive this year, with all types of fund indices recording positive returns, particularly equity funds, which have outperformed [3][8]. - Active investment strategies have outperformed passive strategies by approximately 3%, marking the first year of excess returns for active funds after three years of relative underperformance [3][8]. - The rapid growth of passive stock index funds has been noted, with their scale surpassing that of active equity funds, indicating a significant shift towards passive investment strategies [13][14]. Group 2 - The report emphasizes that the main line of equity market allocation is driven by abundant liquidity, which has led to valuation expansion in the stock market, but profitability improvements will ultimately determine the sustainability of the market rally [24][27]. - The report suggests that the "going abroad" strategy is essential for companies seeking new revenue and profit sources during the transition from old to new economic drivers, especially in the context of trade friction [24][38]. - Companies with core technological advantages, overseas brand channels, and supply chain capabilities are expected to experience rapid growth, making them attractive targets for equity fund allocation [24][54]. Group 3 - The report outlines that the investment direction for equity funds is clear, focusing on a "bottom-up" stock selection approach rather than a "top-down" industry selection [66]. - Active equity funds should prioritize fund managers' stock-picking abilities and avoid products that significantly deviate from performance benchmarks [69]. - The report provides specific recommendations for ETF fund allocations in sectors with overseas advantages, such as non-ferrous metals, lithium batteries, telecommunications, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals [71][73]. Group 4 - The report indicates that the current valuation levels of major indices are at historical highs, suggesting that many industry theme indices are overvalued despite potential future earnings growth [19][23]. - The report notes that the technology sector has shown strong revenue and profit growth, particularly in the context of the new economy driven by "new industries, new formats, and new businesses" [29][33]. - The report highlights that the "going abroad" strategy has become a necessary option for companies, with those possessing strong technological advantages and global supply chain capabilities expected to thrive [54][56].

11月19日，碳酸锂期货主力合约一度升破10万元/吨，为2024年6月以来首次，日内涨近6%。广期所最 新通知显示，自11月20日交易时起，碳酸锂期货LC2601合约的交易手续费标准调整为成交金额的万分 之一点二。此前11月17日，碳酸锂期货多个合约封涨停板，头部厂商预测若2026年需求增速超30%，价 格可能突破15万元/吨。 石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，从申万一级行业分 布来看，基础化工行业占比为60.8%，石油石化行业占比为32.2%，有望充分受益于反内卷、调结构和 淘汰落后产能等政策。 申万宏源证券A股策略首席分析师展望2026年节奏如下："1.0"阶段已处于高位区域，2026年春季前科技 成长至少还有一波机会，"1.0"至"2.0"的过渡阶段，高股息防御或占优；"2.0"阶段将"周期搭台，成长唱 戏"，周期引领指数突破后，科技产业趋势和制造业全球影响力提升将成主线。三大结构线索值得关 注，分别是复苏交易（基础化工、工业金属等）、科技产业趋势（AI产业链、人形机器人等）和制造 业影响力提升（化工、工程机械等）。 石化ETF（159731 ...

Group 1 - The North Exchange has reached a market capitalization of 900.8 billion, with a significant improvement in liquidity and market functions over its four years of development [2][5][7] - As of November 14, 2025, the North Exchange has 282 listed companies, representing a growth of 248% compared to its inception, with a total market value increase of 212% [5][7][12] - The average daily turnover rate for the North Exchange in 2025 was 5.4%, the highest among all A-shares, with 9.5 million new accounts opened, reflecting a 1.4 times increase since its launch [2][5][7] Group 2 - The North Exchange experienced three major market rallies in 2023 and 2024, driven by different catalysts: policy-driven in the first two rounds and industry-driven in the last [2][19][20] - The North Exchange 50 Index saw increases of 55.8%, 132%, and 47.4% during these rallies, indicating varying market characteristics and participant dynamics [19][20][21] - The market's focus has shifted towards "style rotation" and "industry rotation," with significant impacts from the distribution of industries and the quality of companies within those sectors [25][26][33] Group 3 - The outlook for 2026 includes accelerated reforms, with expectations for the launch of the North Exchange 50 ETF and new stock issuance reforms, which are anticipated to enhance liquidity and stabilize volatility [2][4][12] - The expected number of new stock issuances in 2026 is around 40, with projected subscription yields of 3.75%, 3.13%, and 2.34% for different investment amounts [2][4][12] - Investment strategies for 2026 suggest focusing on technology and "anti-involution" in the first half, and consumer and manufacturing sectors in the second half, with an overall emphasis on new and recently listed stocks [2][4][12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the conference is that 2026 will mark the beginning of a new phase of high-quality development for China's economy and capital markets, driven by the "three new" concepts: new factor systems, new institutional frameworks, and new service systems [1] - The chief economist predicts that 2025 will be a year of recovering confidence, while 2026 will see comprehensive reforms and development, leading to atypical economic recovery and improved profitability [1] - The concept of "seeking dividends from reform" encompasses three meanings: accelerated reform progress presenting significant opportunities, short-term policies to boost domestic demand continuing under a long-term reform framework, and the breadth, depth, and strength of the "dividends" being closely tied to reforms [1] Group 2 - The "two-phase theory of rising markets" suggests that the technology-driven market in 2025 will represent "Phase 1.0," potentially peaking in spring 2026, followed by a comprehensive market phase "Phase 2.0" in the second half of 2026 [2] - The "Phase 1.0" is expected to reach its peak in spring 2026, with the AI industry still showing growth potential, although A-share AI stocks are currently in a long-term low-value area [2] - In "Phase 2.0," it is anticipated that midstream manufacturing supply will clear, with capacity growth rates falling below demand growth, leading to improved stock selection success rates [2] Group 3 - The industry outlook indicates that the "Phase 1.0" is at a high level, with one more opportunity for technology growth before spring 2026, while the transition to "Phase 2.0" will favor high-dividend defensive stocks [3] - The "Phase 2.0" will see cyclical stocks leading index breakthroughs, with technology industry trends and the global influence of manufacturing becoming the main themes [3] - Three structural clues to watch include recovery trades (basic chemicals, industrial metals), technology industry trends (AI industry chain, humanoid robots), and the enhancement of manufacturing influence (chemicals, engineering machinery) [3]

Core Insights - The 2026 strategy report by Dongfang Caifu Securities highlights the ongoing asset revaluation logic in China, suggesting that both domestic and foreign investments are likely to increase in the equity market, indicating a potential for new highs in A-shares [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The report anticipates a continued expansion of the AI industry chain's prosperity, alongside a recovery in the Producer Price Index (PPI) year-on-year, which is expected to support a warming profit cycle [1] - There is significant room for improvement in domestic residents' allocation to equity assets, which could lead to a resonance in market dynamics [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The current phase of broad de-inventory is expected to stabilize, with the real estate inventory-to-sales ratio returning to historical averages in the second half of the year, suggesting a gradual improvement in traditional economic chains [1] - The report emphasizes that the proportion of "new momentum" in the economy is set to increase further, indicating a shift in economic drivers [1]