【导读】美股震荡跳水， 美联储理事沃勒成为特朗普团队最看好的鲍威尔接班人 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，今晚继续关注一下海外市场的表现。 美股震荡跳水 8月7日晚间，美股三大指数高开低走，涨跌不一，道指跳水跌超300点，纳指涨约0.3%，标普500指数小幅下跌。 | TX IKI: TARAFIAA Comments of the comments of the comments of the comments of the comments of the comments of the comments of the comments of the comments of the former of the form the forme t | | | --- | --- | | 成交量: 2.25亿股 | | | 分时 五日 日K 周K 月K 季K 年K 120分 60分 30分 15分 5分 1分 区间统计 全屏显 | | | 最新:43884.31 -308.81 -0.70% | | | | 44533.88 | | | 1100 | 半导体板块大涨，AMD涨约6%，台积电大涨4%。消息面上，虽然美 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the articles indicates a cooling labor market in the U.S., as evidenced by rising unemployment claims, which supports expectations for interest rate cuts [1][2][4] - As of the week ending July 26, the number of individuals continuing to claim unemployment benefits increased by 38,000 to 1.974 million, the highest level since November 2021, indicating a weakening labor market [2][4] - Despite the increase in unemployment claims, the initial claims for unemployment benefits remain relatively low, suggesting that while companies are reducing hiring, they are not aggressively laying off existing employees [4][8] Group 2 - The recent non-farm payroll report showed a significant slowdown in U.S. employment, raising concerns among investors and economists about further deterioration in the labor market [8] - Companies are hesitant to hire new employees but are also not rushing to lay off current staff, reflecting uncertainty in the economic environment influenced by policies such as tariffs [7][8] - Some large companies, including Merck and Intel, have begun layoffs, and Stanford University plans to cut over 300 jobs due to federal funding reductions [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, oscillate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term. The core logic includes increased short - term trade agreement disputes leading to rising risk - aversion demand, and growing stagflation risks in the US economy with weakening employment and a rebound in interest - rate cut expectations [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. Currently, there are small reductions in the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF in terms of capital, and a small increase in the visible inventory of silver [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals are volatile and bullish. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.10%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 1.07% [1]. - **Core Logic** - **Risk - Aversion Attribute**: Trump's new round of tariffs triggered a global stock - market crash, and many countries sought renegotiation. Trump threatened to significantly increase tariffs on India, and Russian oil and geopolitics led to an escalation of trade conflicts [1]. - **Monetary Attribute**: US employment growth in July was weaker than expected, and the non - farm payrolls increase in the previous two months was revised down by 258,000, indicating a sharp deterioration in the labor - market situation. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September increased from about 40% before the non - farm data to around 80%, and the expected number of interest - rate cuts within the year rose from 1 to 2. Many Fed officials signaled growing concerns about economic slowdown, causing the US dollar index and US Treasury yields to fall under pressure [1]. - **Commodity Attribute**: The rebound of the CRB commodity index was under pressure, and the strong RMB suppressed domestic prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can sell high and buy low. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Data Summary** - **Prices**: International prices such as Comex gold and London gold, and domestic prices like Shanghai Gold main contract and Gold T + D showed different changes compared to the previous day and week [2]. - **Basis, Spreads, and Ratios**: The basis and spreads between Shanghai Gold and London Gold, and ratios such as the gold - silver ratio and gold - copper ratio also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Positions in Comex gold, Shanghai Gold main contract, and Gold T + D, as well as inventories in LBMA, Comex, and Shanghai Gold Exchange, showed different trends [2]. - **Net Positions of Futures Companies**: The top 10 futures companies' net long and net short positions in Shanghai Gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange had specific data and changes [3]. Silver - **Core Relationship**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver [5]. - **Current Situation**: There are small reductions in the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF in terms of capital, and a small increase in the visible inventory of silver [5]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - **Data Summary** - **Prices**: International prices such as Comex silver and London silver, and domestic prices like Shanghai Silver main contract and Silver T + D showed different changes compared to the previous day and week [6]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis and spreads between Shanghai Silver and London Silver had corresponding changes [6]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Positions in Comex silver, Shanghai Silver main contract, and Silver T + D, as well as inventories in LBMA, Comex, Shanghai Silver Exchange, and the total visible inventory, showed different trends [6]. - **Net Positions of Futures Companies**: The top 10 futures companies' net long and net short positions in Shanghai Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange had specific data and changes [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attribute Key Indicators** - Federal funds target rate upper limit is 4.50%, with a decrease of 0.25 compared to the previous value; the Fed's total assets are 6692.931 billion US dollars, a decrease of 16.008 billion US dollars (- 0.00%) [8]. - M2 year - on - year growth rate is 4.54%, an increase of 0.37 [8]. - Ten - year US Treasury real yield is 2.50%, with a daily increase of 0.02 (0.81%) and a weekly decrease of 0.04 (- 1.57%) [8]. - US dollar index is 98.23, a daily decrease of 0.54 (- 0.54%) and a weekly decrease of 1.72 (- 1.72%) [8]. - Other indicators such as US Treasury yield spreads, inflation rates (CPI, core CPI), economic growth indicators (GDP), labor - market indicators, real - estate market indicators, consumption indicators, industrial indicators, trade indicators, and economic survey indicators also have specific data and changes [8][10]. - **Safe - Haven Attribute** - Geopolitical risk index is 123.07, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 77.02 (- 38.49%) [11]. - VIX index is 16.39, a daily decrease of 0.38 (- 2.27%) and a weekly decrease of 0.33 (- 1.97%) [11]. - **Commodity Attribute** - CRB commodity index is 293.13, a daily decrease of 0.20 (- 0.07%) and a weekly decrease of 6.65 (- 2.22%) [11]. - Offshore RMB is 7.1930, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.0063 (- 0.09%) [11]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves** - China's central - bank gold reserve is 2300.41 tons, an increase of 4.04 tons (0.18%) [10]. - US central - bank gold reserve is 8133.46 tons, with no change [11]. - Global central - bank gold reserve is 36268.07 tons, with no change [11]. - **IMF Foreign - Exchange Reserves and Gold/Reserves Ratio** - The proportion of the US dollar in IMF foreign - exchange reserves is 57.80%, an increase of 0.51 (0.88%) [11]. - The proportion of the euro is 19.83%, a decrease of 0.20 (- 0.99%) [11]. - The proportion of the RMB is 2.18%, a decrease of 0.00 (- 0.04%) [11]. - The global gold/foreign - exchange reserves ratio is 22.18%, an increase of 0.88 (4.11%) [11]. - China's gold/foreign - exchange reserves ratio is 6.78%, an increase of 0.29 (4.40%) [11]. - The US gold/foreign - exchange reserves ratio is 78.64%, an increase of 0.67 (0.86%) [11]. - **Fed's Latest Interest - Rate Expectations** - The probabilities of different interest - rate ranges at various Fed meetings from 2025/9/17 to 2026/12/9 are provided, showing the market's expectations for the Fed's interest - rate decisions [12].

Economic Indicators - U.S. 2-year Treasury yield decreased by 1.26 basis points to 3.708%[4] - U.S. 5-year Treasury yield decreased by 0.35 basis points to 3.772%[4] - U.S. 10-year Treasury yield increased by 1.77 basis points to 4.226%[4] Market Performance - Nasdaq Index closed at 21,169.42, up by 1.21%[5] - Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 44,193.12, up by 0.18%[5] - S&P 500 Index closed at 6,345.06, up by 0.73%[5] Commodity Prices - ICE Brent crude oil price decreased by 1.01% to $66.96[5] - London gold price decreased by 0.35% to $3,368.81[5] - CME Bitcoin futures increased by 1.31% to $115,650.00[5] Corporate Earnings - McDonald's Q2 revenue reached $6.84 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%[4] Industry Trends - China's industrial robot production increased by 35.6% year-on-year in the first half of the year[4] - China's service robot production increased by 25.5% year-on-year in the first half of the year[4] - The consumer gaming laptop market in China saw a year-on-year growth of 24.3% in Q2[4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 6, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.08% to 783.68 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 1.19% to 9,182 yuan/kg [3]. - The US July non - farm payrolls report shows that the US labor market has been cooling since April and may weaken further. Fed officials' statements on approaching interest - rate cuts, Trump's political actions, and new tariffs, along with poor US economic data, have increased the probability of an August Fed rate cut to 90%, supporting precious metal prices. However, the continuous rise of risk assets like stocks and high risk appetite have made the domestic gold price weaker than the overseas price recently. Looking ahead, the extensive cooling of the US labor market and the implementation of tariffs may support the gold price to continue its strong performance, and it is recommended to hold long positions. For silver, it may run strongly in the short - term due to high market risk appetite, but in the medium - term, the focus should be on fundamentals, and caution is needed for the upside space [3]. - In the long - term, there is still a certain probability of Fed rate cuts this year. With continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power games, and the wave of de - dollarization, central bank gold purchases continue, and the long - term center of gold prices is likely to move up [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On August 6, 2025, London gold spot was at $3,373.65/ounce, London silver spot was at $37.82/ounce, COMEX gold was at $3,428.30/ounce, and COMEX silver was at $37.85/ounce. Compared with August 5, the price of gold rose 0.2% and silver rose 1.3%. The prices of domestic gold and silver futures and spot also showed varying degrees of increase [3]. - **Price Spreads/Ratios**: On August 6, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 3.74 yuan/gram, and the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was - 32 yuan/kg. Compared with August 5, the spreads of some items changed, with the gold TD - SHFE active price spread increasing 1.1% and the silver TD - SHFE active price spread increasing 6.7% [3]. Position Data - As of August 5, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was 955.94 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV was 15,044.47453 tons, with week - on - week increases of 0.12% and 0.15% respectively. The non - commercial net long positions of COMEX gold and silver decreased compared with the previous period, with the non - commercial net long positions of COMEX gold decreasing 11.64% and those of COMEX silver decreasing 2.00% [3]. Inventory Data - On August 6, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 36,045 kg, up 0.10% from August 5; SHFE silver inventory was 1,161,844 kg, up 0.39% from August 5. On August 5, COMEX gold inventory was 38,800,720 fine ounces, up 0.02% from August 4; COMEX silver inventory was 506,311,741 fine ounces, down 0.06% from August 4 [3]. Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Stock Market - On August 6, 2025, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was 7.14, up 0.06% from August 5. The US dollar index was 98.76 on August 5, up 0.01% from August 4. The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.72%, up 0.81% from August 4; the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.22%, unchanged from August 4. The VIX index was 17.85 on August 5, up 1.88% from August 4. The S&P 500 index was 6,299.19 on August 5, down 0.49% from August 4 [3]. Geopolitical and Economic News - Geopolitically, Israel's prime minister held a limited security meeting to fully re - occupy the Gaza Strip. Russia may make concessions to the US and propose an air cease - fire with Ukraine. The EU decided to suspend the anti - tariff measures against the US that were originally scheduled to take effect on August 7 [3]. - Economically, the US July ISM services index was only 50.1, the employment index shrank, and the price index reached a new high since October 2022 [3].

Core Viewpoint - Short-term gold prices are likely to rise again, with a long-term bullish outlook supported by geopolitical conflicts, a weakening dollar, expectations of interest rate cuts, and continued gold purchases by non-U.S. central banks [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Guosen Securities indicates that multiple factors, including geopolitical conflicts and a weakening dollar, are supporting gold prices [1] - Tianfeng Securities highlights the risk of political interference in the Federal Reserve, which may lead to a repeat of the 1970s stagflation scenario, providing fundamental support for a long-term bull market in gold [1] - The significant downward revision of July's non-farm payroll data reflects economic pressures in the U.S., with market expectations for a rate cut in September rising to nearly 90% [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The gold stock ETF (517400) tracks the SSH Gold Stock Index (931238), which selects listed companies involved in gold mining and production, reflecting the overall performance of the gold industry [1] - The index components are focused on value investment, making it suitable for long-term investors interested in the precious metals market [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai Zhongzheng Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF Initiated Link A (021673) and Link C (021674) [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Copper - Currently, the path of interest rate cuts is unclear. Without a significant improvement in interest rate cut expectations, the upward momentum of copper prices is insufficient. After the disappointment of US copper tariffs, the electrolytic copper market in non - US regions shows a pattern of "loosening supply expectations and weak actual demand", and the spot contradictions are gradually resolved. Copper pricing returns to macro trading, and it may still fluctuate within a range without significant macro disturbances. The reference range for the main contract is 77,000 - 79,000 [1]. Zinc - The TC of zinc ore has risen to 3,900 yuan/ton, but the growth rates of global mine output in May and domestic mine output in June are both lower than expected. The smelter's enthusiasm for resuming production is high, and the smelter's operating rate is stronger than the seasonality. The supply - side relaxation logic of the mine end is gradually transmitted to the smelting end, and the domestic refined zinc output in July exceeded expectations. The demand side is significantly suppressed by the strong disk price, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is frustrated. The basic situation of "loose supply + weak demand" is not enough to boost the continuous rise of zinc prices, but the low inventory provides price support. It is expected that zinc prices will still operate in a shock in the short term, and the reference range for the main contract is 22,000 - 23,000 [4]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term price is supported to rebound, and the basis weakens, but the market will remain slightly oversupplied in the future, and the core driver lies in the continuous game between cost support and over - capacity. It is expected that the main contract will operate in the range of 3,000 - 3,400 in the short term. For aluminum, under the pressure of inventory accumulation expectations, weak demand, and macro disturbances, it is expected that the price will still be under pressure at a high level in the short term, and the reference range for the main contract this month is 20,000 - 21,000 [7]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum in the market is relatively tight, which provides certain support for recycled aluminum on the cost side. The demand side is continuously suppressed by the traditional off - season, and the subsequent weak demand situation will continue, which will continuously suppress the upward momentum of prices. It is expected that the disk will mainly fluctuate in a wide range, and the reference range for the main contract is 19,200 - 20,200 [8]. Tin - The actual supply of tin ore remains tight, and the processing fees of smelters continue to be at a low level. The demand is expected to be weak in the future. Attention should be paid to the resumption of tin ore imports from Myanmar in August. If the supply resumes smoothly, there is a large downward space for tin prices; if the supply recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level [9]. Nickel - Recently, the macro situation is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals do not change much. The medium - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of prices. It is expected that the disk will adjust within a range in the short term, and the reference range for the main contract is 118,000 - 126,000 [10]. Stainless Steel - Recently, the disk is mainly driven by policies and macro - emotions. The short - term sentiment is temporarily stable, but the policy support still exists, and the spot demand on the fundamentals does not drive significantly. It is expected that the disk will mainly fluctuate in the short term, and the reference range for the main contract is 12,600 - 13,200 [11]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term suspension expectation of the market is fermenting, and the uncertainty on the supply side will inject trading variables into the disk. Currently, the supply - demand balance is in line with expectations. The upstream operating rate changes little, and the supply remains sufficient. The demand performance is stable. Recently, the market sentiment and news - surface disturbances dominate the disk trend. The main contract price is expected to fluctuate widely around 67,000 - 72,000. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading without a position [13][14]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread Copper - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 78,350 yuan/ton, down 0.34% from the previous value; the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 100 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from the previous value. The month - to - month spreads such as 2508 - 2509 are - 10 yuan/ton [1]. Zinc - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,330 yuan/ton, up 0.13% from the previous value; the import profit and loss is - 1,474 yuan/ton, up 75.56 yuan from the previous value. The month - to - month spreads such as 2508 - 2509 are - 25 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,630 yuan/ton, up 0.54% from the previous value; the import profit and loss is - 1,294 yuan/ton, up 39.9 yuan from the previous value. The month - to - month spreads such as 2508 - 2509 are 30 yuan/ton [7]. Aluminum Alloy - SMM aluminum alloy ADC15 price is 20,150 yuan/ton, up 0.50% from the previous value. The month - to - month spreads such as 2511 - 2512 are 20 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - SMM 1 tin price is 267,600 yuan/ton, up 0.22% from the previous value; the LME 0 - 3 premium is - 42.00 US dollars/ton, down 3.00 US dollars from the previous value. The month - to - month spreads such as 2508 - 2509 are - 470 yuan/ton [9]. Nickel - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122,100 yuan/ton, up 0.16% from the previous value; the LME 0 - 3 is - 206 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars from the previous value. The month - to - month spreads such as 2509 - 2510 are - 100 yuan/ton [10]. Stainless Steel - 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price is 13,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value; the spot - futures spread is 235 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan from the previous value. The month - to - month spreads such as 2509 - 2510 are - 60 yuan/ton [11]. Lithium Carbonate - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 70,950 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous value; the basis (based on SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate) is 2,090 yuan/ton, down 1,810 yuan from the previous value. The month - to - month spreads such as 2508 - 2509 are - 400 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data Copper - In July, the electrolytic copper output was 1.1743 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month; in June, the electrolytic copper import volume was 300,500 tons, up 18.74% month - on - month. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory was 521,600 tons, down 7.01% week - on - week [1]. Zinc - In July, the refined zinc output was 602,800 tons, up 3.03% month - on - month; in June, the refined zinc import volume was 36,100 tons, up 34.97% month - on - month. The galvanizing operating rate was 56.77%, down 2.65% week - on - week [4]. Aluminum - In July, the alumina output was 7.6502 million tons, up 5.40% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum output was 3.7214 million tons, up 3.11% month - on - month. The aluminum profile operating rate was 50.00%, down 0.99% week - on - week [7]. Aluminum Alloy - In June, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 615,000 tons, up 1.49% month - on - month; the output of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 255,000 tons, down 2.30% month - on - month. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 53.60%, up 3.02% week - on - week [8]. Tin - In June, the tin ore import volume was 11,911 tons, down 11.44% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin output was 13,810 tons, down 6.94% month - on - month. The SHEF inventory was 7,671 tons, up 3.42% week - on - week [9]. Nickel - The domestic refined nickel output was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; the refined nickel import volume was 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month. The SHFE inventory was 25,451 tons, up 0.69% week - on - week [10]. Stainless Steel - The Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel output (43 manufacturers) was 1.7133 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the stainless steel import volume was 109,500 tons, down 12.48% month - on - month. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) was 514,800 tons, down 0.20% week - on - week [11]. Lithium Carbonate - In July, the lithium carbonate output was 81,530 tons, up 4.41% month - on - month; the battery - grade lithium carbonate output was 61,320 tons, up 6.40% month - on - month. The total lithium carbonate inventory in July was 97,846 tons, down 2.01% month - on - month [13].

Core Insights - Three Federal Reserve policymakers expressed concerns about the ongoing weakness in the U.S. labor market and hinted that a rate cut may be initiated in the September meeting [1] - Data revealed that only 73,000 non-farm jobs were added in July, significantly below market expectations [1] Labor Market Analysis - The U.S. labor market continues to show signs of weakness, raising alarms among Federal Reserve officials [1] - The addition of 73,000 non-farm jobs in July is a stark contrast to the anticipated figures, indicating potential economic challenges ahead [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The weakening US job market has heightened expectations of a Fed rate cut, and with global central banks continuing to buy gold, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. Investors are advised to buy on price dips. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: Closing price was 782.50 yuan/g, with a change of 1.18 yuan compared to the previous day; trading volume was 191,341.00, down 2,012.00 from the previous day; open interest was 215,212.00, down 3,440.00 from the previous day; inventory was 36,045.00 (in ten - gram units). [1] - **Shanghai Silver**: Closing price was 9,182.00 yuan/kg, with a change of 107.00 yuan compared to the previous day; trading volume was 372,060.00, down 728,580.00 from the previous day; open interest was 373,376.00, up 2,266.00 from the previous day; inventory was 1,208,033.00 (in ten - gram units). [1] - **COMEX Gold Futures**: Closing price was 3,431.80 dollars/ounce, with a change of - 3.20 dollars compared to the previous day; trading volume was 143,644.00, down 6,488.00 from the previous day; open interest was 340,930.00, up 4,008.00 from the previous day; inventory was 38,679,703.32 (in troy ounces). [1] - **COMEX Silver Futures**: Closing price was 37.94 dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.10 dollars compared to the previous day; trading volume was 38,956.00, down 2,669.00 from the previous day; open interest was 122,977.00, down 711.00 from the previous day; inventory was 506,311,741.34 (in troy ounces). [1] Market News and Macroeconomic Information - Trump ordered an additional 25% tariff on India, and the US plans to impose an additional 15% tariff on the existing tariff base in the US - Japan trade agreement [1] - Trump's advisors are pushing to temporarily fill the vacant positions on the Fed board, and Fed official Cook hinted at a possible rate cut in the near future [1] - The US Treasury may issue about $50 billion in bonds in Q3, which may cause a liquidity shock. US consumer - end inflation has risen, but due to the possible significant downward revision of new non - farm payrolls from May to July, the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, October, and December has increased [1] - The ECB paused rate cuts in July, and the market expects the ECB to cut rates once by the end of 2025. The Bank of England may cut rates 2 - 3 times by the end of 2025, and the Bank of Japan still has the possibility of raising rates by the end of 2025 [1] Trading Strategy - Investors are advised to buy on price dips. For London gold, focus on the support level around $3,150 - $3,250 and the resistance level around $3,500 - $3,700; for Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 730 - 760 yuan and the resistance level around 800 - 850 yuan; for London silver, focus on the support level around $34 - $36 and the resistance level around $37 - $40; for Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 8,500 - 8,700 yuan and the resistance level around 9,100 - 9,500 yuan [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - LME lead inventory reduction supports lead prices [1] - The US ISM services PMI shows signs of weakness with high price indices, and investors are worried about stagflation risks affecting the Fed's policy path and dampening rate - cut expectations [2] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,855 yuan/ton, up 0.48%; the LME 3M electronic lead contract closed at 1,975.5 dollars/ton, up 0.61% [1] - **Volume**: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract was 48,645 lots, an increase of 8,512 lots; the LME lead trading volume was 6,919 lots, a decrease of 97 lots [1] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the Shanghai lead main contract was 65,019 lots, a decrease of 7,064 lots; the LME lead open interest was 150,024 lots, an increase of 584 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was - 40 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium was - 41.92 dollars/ton, down 3.42 dollars/ton [1] - **Import and Export Profits and Losses**: The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was - 515.14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110.13 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of the continuous third - month Shanghai lead contract was - 544.72 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60.84 yuan/ton [1] - **Inventory**: The Shanghai lead futures inventory was 58,656 tons, unchanged; the LME lead inventory was 268,600 tons, a decrease of 4,375 tons; the LME lead cancelled warrants were 66,900 tons, a decrease of 4,375 tons [1] - **Recycled Lead**: The price of recycled refined lead was 16,750 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was - 399 yuan/ton, up 155 yuan/ton [1] News - Trump will decide on new Fed governors this week, can select the Fed chair through vacant governor positions, and rules out Treasury Secretary Bessent as a candidate for Fed chair [2] - The US ISM services PMI shows weakness and high price indices, causing investors to worry about stagflation risks and affecting the Fed's policy path and rate - cut expectations [2] Lead Trend Intensity The lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral state [2]