Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - For rapeseed meal, near - term rapeseed arrivals are low, reducing supply pressure, and China's anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed weaken long - term supply. However, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. After two days of sharp decline, the futures price rose with reduced positions to repair the moving - average deviation, and short - term participation is recommended [2] - For rapeseed oil, Canadian rapeseed is expected to have a high yield, which exerts pressure on its price. The US biodiesel policy is unclear, and domestic consumption support is limited with a loose supply - demand situation. But the low oil - mill operating rate and fewer near - term rapeseed purchases keep supply pressure low. The extension of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed restricts purchases, and the supply in the fourth quarter is expected to be tight. The tight supply expectation makes rapeseed oil lead the rise in the oil market, and the Sino - Canadian trade policy trend should be monitored [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) is 10142 yuan/ton, up 221; rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2444 yuan/ton, up 49; ICE rapeseed (active) is 617.6 Canadian dollars/ton, up 0.3; rapeseed (active contract) is 5281 yuan/ton, up 1 [2] - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (1 - 5) is 484 yuan/ton, unchanged; rapeseed meal (1 - 5) is 41507 yuan/ton, up 101 [2] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil is 39516 lots, up 21725; rapeseed meal is - 51747 lots, up 21457 [2] - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil is 8057 sheets, unchanged; rapeseed meal is 9245 sheets, unchanged [2] - Main - contract open interest: Rapeseed oil is 347712 lots; rapeseed meal is 378057 lots, down 20054 [2] 现货市场 - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10040 yuan/ton, up 70; rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2490 yuan/ton, up 40; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged; fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8430 yuan/ton, up 80; 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9170 yuan/ton, up 150; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2940 yuan/ton, up 40 [2] - Average price: Rapeseed oil is 10105 yuan/ton, up 70 [2] - Import cost: Imported rapeseed is 7704.7 yuan/ton, up 0.1 [2] - Price differences: Oil - meal ratio is 3.93, down 0.03; rapeseed oil - soybean oil spot price difference is 1610 yuan/ton, down 10; rapeseed oil - palm oil spot price difference is 870 yuan/ton, down 80; soybean meal - rapeseed meal spot price difference is 450 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Basis: Rapeseed oil main - contract basis is - 102 yuan/ton, down 151; rapeseed meal main - contract basis is 46 yuan/ton, down 9 [2] Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast is 89.58 million tons, up 0.04 million tons; annual forecast for a certain area is 12378 thousand tons, unchanged [2] - Rapeseed import quantity is 24.66 million tons, up 7.06 million tons; import rapeseed crushing profit is 959 yuan/ton, up 12 [2] - Total rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 5 million tons, down 5 million tons; weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 13.06%, up 0.27% [2] - Imports of rapeseed oil and mustard oil are 14 million tons, up 1 million tons; imports of rapeseed meal are 18.31 million tons, down 8.72 million tons [2] 产业情况 - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 7.55 million tons, down 1.1 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 million tons, unchanged [2] - East China rapeseed oil inventory is 51.2 million tons, down 0.92 million tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory is 28.93 million tons, down 1.07 million tons [2] - Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 3.5 million tons, down 0.6 million tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory is 21.4 million tons, up 1.4 million tons [2] - Weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 1.55 million tons, down 2.78 million tons; weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 2.79 million tons, down 0.78 million tons [2] 下游情况 - Feed production is 2927.2 million tons, up 99.9 million tons; catering revenue in social consumer goods retail is 4495.7 billion yuan, down 8.4 billion yuan [2] - Edible vegetable oil production is 450.6 million tons, up 30 million tons [2] 期权市场 - For rapeseed meal, the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.79%, up 0.9%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.78%, up 0.9%; 20 - day historical volatility is 21.42%, up 1.01%; 60 - day historical volatility is 24.01%, up 0.41% [2] - For rapeseed oil, the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 13.31%, down 0.93%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 13.31%, down 0.93%; 20 - day historical volatility is 10.68%, up 0.32%; 60 - day historical volatility is 13.08%, down 0.15% [2] 行业消息 - ICE rapeseed futures were nearly flat on Wednesday, with little guidance from the soybean oil market. CBOT soybean futures fell on Wednesday due to concerns about US export demand. Rapeseed meal 2601 contract rose 1.58% on Thursday. US soybeans are in the harvest period, and the expected high yield restrains prices. The Sino - US soybean trade situation remains deadlocked, and Argentina's export policy changes affect the market [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The current focus of soybean meal futures trading is the short - term negative sentiment from Argentina's export tax exemption policy. Argentina's old - crop sales progress is about 60% - 70%, with a potential export volume of up to 10 million tons to China. However, the purchase gap in China in the fourth quarter is less than 10 million tons. The policy's duration until next year is still uncertain. In terms of valuation, the prices of Argentine soybean meal and soybeans have only slightly decreased, providing some cost support for the domestic soybean meal futures. In the long - term, the soybean supply affected by Sino - US trade relations should be monitored [1]. - Rapeseed meal futures generally follow the trend of soybean meal in the short - term. After the Sino - Canadian talks, China has extended the anti - dumping investigation, making rapeseed products stronger than soybeans before November. After November, the arrival of Australian rapeseed may increase the inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal by the end of the year [1]. - In the near - term, the supply of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills in China remains high, and the inventory of soybean meal is increasing seasonally. Rapeseed meal is weaker but relatively stronger than soybean meal. The downstream demand for pre - holiday stocking has ended, and the subsequent purchasing sentiment is expected to be limited. After the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts, the pressure on soybean and rapeseed meal warehouse receipts has increased again, leading to a supply - dominated market [3]. - In the long - term, the import profit of soybeans is weakening, indicating a relief of supply pressure. Without purchasing US soybeans, there will be a supply gap for imported soybeans in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. Due to Sino - Canadian tariffs, there will also be a supply gap for rapeseed meal in the long - term, but the demand may decline simultaneously. With the supply of rapeseed from other sources, the inventory will decrease in the fourth quarter and slightly recover in the first quarter of next year [17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term focus is on Argentina's export tax exemption policy. The old - crop sales progress is 60% - 70%, with a potential export of up to 10 million tons to China. The policy's impact on the market depends on its duration and China's purchase demand. In the long - term, Sino - US trade relations will affect soybean supply [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It follows soybean meal in the short - term. Before November, it is stronger than soybeans due to Sino - Canadian relations. After November, the arrival of Australian rapeseed may change the inventory situation [1]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The market is expected to be range - bound. The M2601 contract is predicted to oscillate between 2800 - 3200, and it is difficult to break through these ranges [18]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Reduce or liquidate previous long positions. Consider a covered call strategy by selling a 3300 - strike call option as a covered opening position, and hold previous covered opening positions [18]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Suggestions - **Price Range Forecast**: The price of soybean meal is expected to be between 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 8.8% and a historical percentile of 3.8% over three years [22]. - **Hedging Strategies**: Different hedging strategies are recommended for traders, feed mills, and oil mills based on their inventory and procurement situations [25]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Futures Prices**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures have declined, while the price of CBOT yellow soybeans remained unchanged, and the offshore RMB exchange rate increased slightly [26]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads and basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal have shown different changes, with the basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal strengthening and the spot spread between soybean and rapeseed meal narrowing [27]. - **Import Costs and Pressing Profits**: The import costs of US and Brazilian soybeans have decreased, and the pressing profits of Brazilian soybeans are positive but declining. The pressing profits of Canadian rapeseed are relatively high [28]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: According to the USDA crop report, as of September 21, the US soybean harvest progress was 9%, and the corn good - to - excellent rate was 61%. The dry weather in the US Midwest may accelerate the harvest. The USDA export inspection report showed that the cumulative soybean export inspection volume in the 2025/26 season increased by 25.9% year - on - year, reaching 3.43% of the annual export target. China has purchased up to nine ships of Australian rapeseed, equivalent to about 8% of last year's total imports [28][29][30]. - **Negative Information**: Argentina has cancelled export taxes on soybeans, grains, and related products from now until October 31 to stimulate exports, which may increase supply and put pressure on international prices. As of last Thursday, the planting progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 0.9%, and the upcoming rainfall may accelerate planting. The US EPA's new policy on small refinery exemptions has not clarified the market, leading to a significant decline in Chicago soybean oil futures [31][32]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Downstream pre - holiday stocking is basically completed, and near - term spot purchases are mainly on a need - to - use basis [33]. 2.2 Next Week's Key Events - Monday: USDA export inspection report and domestic weekly inventory data. - Tuesday: Brazilian Secex weekly report and USDA crop growth report. - Thursday: USDA export sales report. - Saturday: CFTC agricultural product position report [41]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Analysis 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Analysis - **Domestic Market**: The soybean meal futures price first declined, then rebounded, and finally broke through the support level. Rapeseed meal generally followed the trend of soybean meal but was relatively stronger. Some short - position holders in key profitable seats of soybean and rapeseed meal futures reduced their positions slightly, while foreign - funded seats increased short positions. The crowded long - position seats suggest limited downward space [37]. - **International Market**: The domestic and international markets showed different trends. Before the Sino - US trade negotiation, the international market strengthened, and the domestic market weakened. After the negotiation, the situation reversed. Subsequently, the international soybean market declined due to Argentina's export policy. The net long - position of CBOT soybean managed funds decreased and fluctuated around zero, indicating unclear short - term capital direction [60][64]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Production Area Profit Tracking - The pressing profit in US soybean production areas is strong due to biodiesel policies, and the monthly pressing volume remains at a high level. The pressing profits in South American production areas (Brazil and Argentina) are average, and exports may reduce domestic pressing volume. The domestic pressing profit of Canadian rapeseed is neutral [66]. 4.2 Import - Export Pressing Profit Tracking - The pressing profit of Brazilian soybeans in China is positive but declining. China will continue to mainly import Brazilian soybeans as they are more profitable than US soybeans with a 23% tariff. The available export volume of Brazilian soybeans is limited, and the domestic soybean pressing volume may decline seasonally. Although importing rapeseed can yield pressing profits, the purchase of rapeseed will still be cautious due to import margin requirements [74]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 International Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - For this month's new - crop balance sheet, the planted area is expected to increase marginally after a significant downward revision in August, and the yield per acre is expected to decrease marginally after reaching a record high. The total production is expected to be between 4.2 - 4.3 billion bushels. The domestic pressing demand will continue to grow due to biodiesel policies, while the export demand will remain weak due to Sino - US trade relations. If Sino - US trade resumes, exports may exceed normal levels. The ending inventory is expected to be moderately tight [81]. 5.2 Domestic Supply and Projection - China's soybean imports will decline rapidly in the fourth quarter, and rapeseed imports will remain low. The production of soybean meal will also decrease in the fourth quarter, and there may be 2 - 3 ships of imported soybean meal if there is an import profit. Argentina will mainly export soybeans to China [83]. 5.3 Domestic Demand and Projection - The inventory of soybeans carried over from the third quarter and the arrival of new imports in the fourth quarter will maintain a high level of domestic soybean pressing volume, but it will decline in the fourth quarter. After the previous high - level stocking, the consumption of soybean meal is unlikely to increase significantly [86]. 5.4 Domestic Inventory and Projection - The inventory of soybeans in China is at a seasonal high but will decline in the fourth quarter as imports decrease. The inventory of soybean meal will also decline rapidly due to the reduction of raw material inventory and pressing volume [88].

Group 1 - Domestic futures market for oilseeds and oils showed a downward trend, with soybean futures experiencing a significant drop of 4.63%, settling at 3544.00 CNY/ton [1] - As of September 19, the inventory of imported soybeans in major domestic oil mills was 7.52 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 320,000 tons and a month-on-month decrease of 30,000 tons, but a year-on-year increase of 50,000 tons compared to the past three-year average [2] - The U.S. soybean good-to-excellent rating was reported at 61%, lower than the market expectation of 62%, and down from 63% the previous week and 64% the same time last year [2] Group 2 - New Century Futures predicts a short-term rebound for soybean futures, but a medium-term bearish trend, influenced by drought conditions affecting U.S. soybeans and high inventory levels in domestic oil mills [3] - The report highlights that the supply of soybeans is abundant, with domestic oil mills operating at high capacity, leading to pressure on soybean meal inventories [3] - Future supply expectations are influenced by U.S.-China trade relations, the realization of U.S. soybean yields, and adjustments in the purchasing rhythm and direction of domestic firms [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Rebar: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Adjusting [2] - Soda ash: Adjusting [2] - CSI 50: Oscillating [2] - CSI 300: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500: Oscillating [3] - CSI 1000: Rebounding [3] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [3] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [3] - 10-year Treasury bond: Rebounding [3] - Gold: Bullish [3] - Silver: Bullish [3] - Logs: Range-bound [5] - Pulp: Consolidating at the bottom [5] - Offset paper: Bearish [5] - Edible oils: Wide-range oscillation [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillating with a bearish bias [5] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating with a bearish bias [5] - Live pigs: Oscillating with a bullish bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillating [9] - PX: On the sidelines [9] - PTA: Oscillating [9] - MEG: On the sidelines [9] - PR: On the sidelines [9] - PF: On the sidelines [9] Core Views - The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented as expected, and after the National Day, trading focus will gradually shift to the real economy [2][3] - The supply of overseas iron ore has declined slightly, but the total global iron ore shipments are still at a relatively high level in recent years, and the demand for iron ore has rebounded [2] - The coal mine shutdown news and the increasing expectation of "anti-involution" have jointly promoted the rebound of coking coal and coke futures [2] - The real estate investment continues to decline, and the total demand is difficult to show an anti-seasonal performance, forming a pattern of high in the first half and low in the second half [2] - The overall glass supply remains stable, and the demand has limited growth, with a loose fundamental pattern [2] - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional focus on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases, and the price is expected to remain bullish [3] - The supply of logs is tightening, and the cost support is weakening, with the price expected to range-bound [5] - The pulp price is expected to consolidate at the bottom, and the offset paper market is bearish [5] - The supply pressure of edible oils is increasing, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [5] - The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the price is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [5] - The average trading weight of live pigs is rising, and the price is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term [7] - The natural rubber price is expected to oscillate widely, and the PX and PTA prices will follow the cost fluctuations [9] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Global iron ore shipments decreased by 2.483 million tons to 33.248 million tons, but the 47-port iron ore arrivals increased by 3.581 million tons to 27.504 million tons. The daily average pig iron output rebounded slightly, driving up the demand for iron ore. The steel mills' profit ratio declined, but the motivation for active production cuts was still insufficient, with inventory replenishment expected before the festival. The iron ore 2601 contract broke through the previous high and showed an oscillating and bullish trend [2] - Coking coal and coke: The shutdown news of coal mines and the increasing expectation of "anti-involution" promoted the rebound of coking coal and coke futures. The supply of coking coal is likely to be weaker than last year in the second half of the year, and the demand for coking coal and coke has rebounded with the arrival of the peak season. An individual coking enterprise in Inner Mongolia initiated the first round of coke price increase. The price is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [2] - Rebar: The Fed's interest rate cut and the coal mine shutdown news, along with the "anti-involution" expectation, promoted the rebound of coking coal and coke, which in turn drove up the rebar price. The output of finished steel decreased slightly, but the supply remained at a relatively high level. The total demand was difficult to show an anti-seasonal performance, and the rebar 2601 contract is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term, with attention paid to the inventory performance [2] - Glass: The glass supply remained stable, and the demand had limited growth. The downstream deep-processing factory orders increased slightly, but the demand increment was limited. The coal-to-gas conversion in Shahe may cause short-term fluctuations in the market. The key for the 01 contract lies in the cold repair path, and attention should be paid to the pre-festival inventory replenishment [2] Financial Industry - Stock index futures/options: The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock indexes showed different performances. The computer hardware and precious metals sectors had capital inflows, while the catering and tourism and soft drink sectors had capital outflows. The market rebounded, and it is recommended to control the risk preference and maintain the current long position of stock indexes [3] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond and FR007 increased by 1bp, and SHIBOR3M remained flat. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the market interest rate fluctuated. The Treasury bond price showed a weakening trend, and it is recommended to hold a light long position [3] - Gold and silver: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and the price is affected by central bank gold purchases, currency, finance, and geopolitical factors. The interest rate policy of the Fed and geopolitical conflicts are the main influencing factors. The price of gold and silver is expected to remain bullish, with attention paid to Powell's speech and PCE data [3] Light Industry - Logs: The daily average port shipments of logs decreased, and the supply from New Zealand declined. The port inventory decreased, and the cost support weakened. The price is expected to range-bound [5] - Pulp: The spot market price of pulp was stable, and the cost support increased. However, the papermaking industry's profitability was low, and the paper mills' inventory pressure was high, with the price expected to consolidate at the bottom [5] - Offset paper: The spot market price of offset paper declined. The production was relatively stable, but it was in the downstream seasonal off-season, and the demand was poor. The industry was in a stage of overcapacity, and the price was expected to be bearish [5] Oil and Fat Industry - Edible oils: The production of Malaysian palm oil increased slightly in August, and the inventory increased by 4.18% to 2.2 million tons. The supply pressure of domestic soybean oil increased, and the price of edible oils is expected to oscillate widely, with attention paid to the weather in the US soybean-producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [5] - Soybean meal: The US soybean yield increased, but the export demand was weak, and the domestic supply was abundant. The price of soybean meal is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias, with attention paid to the US soybean weather and soybean arrivals [5] Agricultural Products Industry - Live pigs: The average trading weight of live pigs increased, and the supply was relatively abundant. The terminal consumption market was sluggish, and the slaughtering enterprise's开工 rate declined. The price is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term, with the support of the pre-festival inventory replenishment demand [7] Soft Commodities Industry - Natural rubber: The supply pressure in Yunnan decreased, and the production in Hainan was lower than expected. The demand for tires increased, and the inventory decreased. The price is expected to oscillate widely [9] - PX and PTA: The PX supply was in surplus, and the price followed the oil price fluctuations. The PTA supply and demand both increased, but the overall supply-demand margin weakened, and the price followed the cost fluctuations [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The overall view for major agricultural commodity futures (including soymeal, palm oil, etc.) is mostly "oscillating weakly" in the short - term and "oscillating" in the medium - term [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soymeal (M) - **Time - frame Views**: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [5]. - **Core Logic**: News about Sino - US trade relations affects market sentiment. The domestic soybean industry chain is weak, with oil mills facing inventory pressure and a negative basis for soymeal. Short - term prices will be weak, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday downstream stocking, Sino - US trade progress, and import purchasing [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Time - frame Views**: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: Import profit inversion restricts new purchases. High near - month arrivals and limited downstream demand lead to inventory pressure. The short - term market lacks a single driver and is affected by policy expectations, export data, and inventory changes [7]. Other Related Varieties (as shown in the table) - **Soybean Oil 2601**: Views are oscillating in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, with a reference view of oscillating weakly. Influencing factors include US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6]. - **Palm 2601**: Views are oscillating in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, with a reference view of oscillating weakly. Influencing factors include its biodiesel property, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals, inventory, and substitution demand [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that China International Cargo Airlines (国货航) is actively engaging with investors to discuss its fleet, route network, utilization rates, the impact of China-US trade relations, market capitalization management, and dividend plans [1][2]. Group 2 - As of June 2025, the company operates a fleet of 25 cargo aircraft, including 13 B777, 5 A330, and 3 B747, focusing on long-haul markets in Europe and the US, with 25 operational routes [1][2]. - The average daily utilization of cargo aircraft from January to June 2025 is approximately 13.29 hours, showing a significant improvement compared to the same period in 2024 [2]. - The current China-US trade relations are in a "pause" phase, with ongoing negotiations, and the company is monitoring policy changes while expanding its route network under a "dual circulation" strategy [2]. - The company is focusing on its core business and implementing a "passenger and cargo" strategy to enhance communication with investors and explore market capitalization management tools [2]. - A shareholder return plan has been established, considering both corporate development and investor returns, with specific profit distribution details to be announced [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of soybean meal futures prices will be weak, with an intraday and reference view of "shock - weakening" and a medium - term view of "shock". This is due to the possibility of falsifying the long - term supply gap with the improvement of Sino - US trade relations, the weakness of the domestic soybean industry chain, and the continuous negative basis pattern of soybean meal [5]. - The short - term trend of palm oil prices will maintain a wide - range shock, with an intraday and reference view of "shock - weakening" and a medium - term view of "shock". Although there is support in the palm oil industry chain, such as strong exports of Malaysian palm oil and potential policies in Indonesia, the domestic import profit inversion and inventory pressure limit the upward space [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday view is "shock - weakening", medium - term view is "shock", and reference view is "shock - weakening" [5]. - **Core Logic**: The expectation of improved Sino - US trade relations may falsify the long - term supply gap. The domestic soybean industry chain is weak, with oil mills facing inventory pressure and a continuous negative basis pattern of soybean meal. Attention should be paid to the downstream stocking rhythm before the double festivals, Sino - US trade progress, and changes in the rhythm of import purchases [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday view is "shock - weakening", medium - term view is "shock", and reference view is "shock - weakening" [7]. - **Core Logic**: There is support in the palm oil industry chain, with strong exports of Malaysian palm oil potentially alleviating inventory pressure. Indonesia's consideration of a B45 transition plan to increase biodiesel blending ratios is favorable for prices in the long run. However, domestic import profit inversion restricts new purchases, and the large near - month arrivals and limited downstream demand lead to inventory pressure. The short - term market lacks a single driver and is affected by policy expectations, export data, and inventory changes [7].

Group 1: US-China Trade Talks - The US-China trade talks in Spain concluded with some achievements, particularly reaching a consensus on the TikTok issue [1][5][10] - The agreement includes the delegation of TikTok's US user data and content security operations, as well as the authorization of intellectual property rights related to algorithms [7][8] - Despite the progress on TikTok, fundamental trade issues remain unresolved, indicating that further negotiations will be necessary [3][10] Group 2: Trump's Economic Policies - Trump has faced significant domestic economic challenges due to his tariff policies, which have adversely affected US farmers and manufacturers [14][16] - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, marking the first rate cut since December, which Trump had pressured for to alleviate domestic economic issues [18][22] - Trump's expectations for a more substantial rate cut were not met, highlighting the limitations of his influence over the Federal Reserve [24][28] Group 3: United Nations Reforms - UN Secretary-General Guterres announced a plan to reduce the UN's regular budget by over 15%, leading to potential layoffs and funding shortages for various projects [32][34] - The budget cuts are largely due to the US's decision to stop paying its dues, which has historically been a significant source of funding for the UN [36][39] - Guterres also proposed structural reforms to the Security Council to limit the veto power of the permanent members, particularly targeting the US's frequent use of vetoes [40][41]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term trends of major agricultural futures in the commodity market, including soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil, are mainly in a state of shock, with a short - term weakening tendency [5][8][9]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "shock - weakening" [5][7]. - **Core Logic**: The expectation of improved Sino - US trade may falsify the long - term supply gap. The domestic soybean market trading logic revolves around the weak industrial chain, with oil mills facing inventory pressure and a continuous negative basis pattern for soybean meal. Also, factors such as import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil mill operation rhythm, and stocking demand affect its price [5][7]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **View**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "shock - weakening" [8][7]. - **Core Logic**: The EPA's biofuel proposal has high uncertainty within 45 days. The past actions of President Trump and the impact of Sino - US trade prospects on the soybean market also affect soybean oil. Additionally, factors like US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory play roles [8][7]. Palm Oil (P) - **View**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "shock - weakening" [9][7]. - **Core Logic**: Although rainfall in East Malaysia may disrupt supply in the short - term and export data is stable, the peak production season in the producing areas restricts upward movement. Indonesia's biodiesel technology breakthrough may strengthen long - term demand support. In the domestic market, import profit is inverted, near - month arrivals are high, downstream demand is limited, and inventory is increasing [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean: ★★★ [1] - Soybean Meal: ★★★ [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★★ [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★ [1] - Corn: ★★★ [1] - Live Pigs: ★☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The short - term market is affected by factors such as trade relationship expectations, policy guidance, and supply - demand changes, and presents a volatile trend. Long - term trends are influenced by factors like overseas bio - diesel policies and production capacity changes. For some products, long - term bullish or bearish trends are expected, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed [2][3][4] Summary by Directory Soybean - The decline of domestic soybeans has eased and rebounded. The expected opening price of new soybeans is around 1.85 - 1.9 yuan/jin. The market has high expectations for Sino - US trade relations, and Brazilian soybean premiums have fallen. Short - term attention should be paid to the verification of trade expectations, policy guidance, and the performance of new soybeans on the market [2] Soybean and Soybean Meal - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, and may cut rates twice more this year. Affected by the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations, Dalian futures continued to decline. The supply of soybeans is sufficient in the fourth quarter, and there may be a gap in the first quarter of next year. The short - term market may continue to fluctuate, and long - term cautious optimism about Dalian soybean meal is maintained [3] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Domestic soybean oil and palm oil are in a downward trend. The price of US soybean oil has weakened, and the soybean - oil ratio has adjusted after reaching a new high. Short - term attention should be paid to the verification of trade expectations. In the long - term, considering the support of overseas bio - diesel policies, it is advisable to buy on dips [4] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed oil followed the decline of the vegetable oil sector, but the decline was the smallest due to the uniqueness of its supply. The estimated output of Canadian rapeseed in 2025/26 has been slightly increased, and the price of Canadian rapeseed futures is under short - term pressure. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to the trend of economic and trade relations [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures rose 0.65% today. Spot prices in different regions are differentiated. There is a certain sentiment of hoarding among farmers. Short - term attention should be paid to policy guidance, and after the enthusiasm for new grain purchases fades, Dalian corn futures may continue to operate weakly at the bottom [7] Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs continued to fall to a new low this year. The main November contract opened lower and continued to decline, breaking through the key resistance level. The supply pressure is high in the second half of the year, and a bearish view is maintained [8] Eggs - Egg futures significantly reduced their positions by 60,000 lots, with the near - term weaker than the far - term. The spot price started to correct today. The industry still has a high inventory problem, and the pressure of new production is expected to decrease by the end of the year. It is advisable to consider deploying long positions in the far - month contracts for next year's first half, and pay attention to the exit of short - position funds in the near - month contracts [9]