本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完 整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否 符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。 如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 端在期货 国债期货日报 2025/7/10 研究员： 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 108.845 | -0.16% T主力成交量 | 77570 | 3359↑ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.990 | -0.14% TF主力成交量 | 65698 | 251↑ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.414 | -0.04% TS主力成交量 | 4 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the investment strategies and adjustments made by various fund managers in response to the A-share market's structural opportunities during the second quarter [1][3] - Tongtai Fund's Tongtai Vision Mixed Fund achieved a remarkable net value growth of 50% in the first half of the year and 73.43% over the past year, focusing on hard technology sectors such as biomedicine, new energy materials, and high-end equipment manufacturing [1] - The Tongtai Industrial Upgrade Mixed Fund made significant adjustments in its portfolio, shifting its focus back to the humanoid robot sector after a substantial price correction, indicating the fund manager's judgment on the sector's recovery potential [1] Group 2 - The bond market showed contrasting trends, with several popular bond funds from Debang Fund experiencing significant growth in scale, such as the Debang Short Bond Fund increasing from 2.8 billion to 6.371 billion, a growth of 128% [3] - Debang Fund's investment strategy in the second quarter involved a combination of coupon assets and volatile assets, primarily focusing on high-quality city investment bonds while also incorporating government bonds and high-rated treasury bills [3] - The fund managers expressed a positive outlook for the bond market in the second half of the year, driven by favorable fundamentals and expectations of monetary easing, leading to a preference for longer-duration bonds [3]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market continues to show weakness due to a lack of downward pressure on short-term funding rates and the strength of the A-share market, leading to a slight increase in yields on major interbank bonds and a decline in government bond futures [1] Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.22% at 120.920, the 10-year main contract down 0.08% at 109.020, the 5-year main contract down 0.08% at 106.135, and the 2-year main contract down 0.03% at 102.466 [2] - Major interbank bond yields increased, with the 30-year government bond yield rising by 0.55 basis points to 1.8605%, the 10-year policy bank bond yield rising by 0.55 basis points to 1.7220%, and the 10-year government bond yield rising by 0.3 basis points to 1.6430% [2] Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 690 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a net withdrawal of 620 billion yuan for the day, as 1,310 billion yuan in reverse repos matured [4] - Short-term Shibor rates mostly declined, with the overnight rate unchanged at 1.312%, the 7-day rate down 0.3 basis points to 1.455%, and the 1-month rate down 1.1 basis points to 1.546%, marking a new low since September 2022 [4] Institutional Insights - Citic Securities noted that while there is a certain degree of preemptive positioning in the bond market, the overall trading congestion has decreased compared to June, although institutions maintain a high duration preference [5] - Guosheng Fixed Income pointed out that the current 50-30 year bond yield spread is at a neutral level, with limited room for further compression, but also minimal adjustment pressure [5] - Changjiang Fixed Income suggested that the credit bond market is driven by ample liquidity and incremental funds, recommending investors to focus on opportunities in 5-year AA+ credit bonds while controlling risk levels [5]

利率 - 反内卷对债市的两条影响路径 20250707 摘要 当前利率已走低，未来走向取决于 6 月经济数据，如通胀、社融和出口。 若数据不佳，央行可能进一步宽松，利好债市，类似于 2015-2016 年 供给侧改革初期。 反内卷通过约束产能推升商品价格，类似供给侧改革，但可能因企业退 出导致就业和收入下降，对需求产生负面影响。缺乏需求侧支持的反内 卷对债市偏利多。 历史经验表明，无需求侧配合的通胀难以持续。若仅因供给侧冲击导致 短期通胀，央行或维持宽松。2015 年供给侧改革期间，利率整体下行， 表明通胀压力可控。 螺纹钢价格通常领先于 PPI 和利率。2015 年底螺纹钢率先上涨，PPI 随 后见底，利率在 2016 年 1 月触底后反弹，受大宗商品价格、供给侧改 革和经济数据改善等多重因素影响。 2021 年大宗商品上涨不仅因输入性通胀，更受煤炭行业政策影响，如 《刑法修正案（十一）》禁止超产及安全检查等，导致煤炭供应收紧， 需求良好也助推价格上涨。 Q&A 螺纹钢价格从 2015 年 12 月初开始回升，而利率则一直下降到 2016 年 1 月 13 日。PPI 在 2015 年 12 月份见底。因此 ...

利率 - 反内卷对债市的两条影响路径 20250707 摘要 当前利率已走低，未来走向取决于 6 月经济数据，如通胀、社融和出口。 若数据不佳，央行可能进一步宽松，利好债市，类似于 2015-2016 年 供给侧改革初期。 反内卷通过约束产能推升商品价格，类似供给侧改革，但可能因企业退 出导致就业和收入下降，对需求产生负面影响。缺乏需求侧支持的反内 卷对债市偏利多。 历史经验表明，无需求侧配合的通胀难以持续。若仅因供给侧冲击导致 短期通胀，央行或维持宽松。2015 年供给侧改革期间，利率整体下行， 表明通胀压力可控。 螺纹钢价格通常领先于 PPI 和利率。2015 年底螺纹钢率先上涨，PPI 随 后见底，利率在 2016 年 1 月触底后反弹，受大宗商品价格、供给侧改 革和经济数据改善等多重因素影响。 2021 年大宗商品上涨不仅因输入性通胀，更受煤炭行业政策影响，如 《刑法修正案（十一）》禁止超产及安全检查等，导致煤炭供应收紧， 需求良好也助推价格上涨。 Q&A 反内卷对债券市场的影响如何？ 反内卷对债券市场的影响相对较小。尽管权益市场因反内卷而表现火热，但债 券市场并未受到显著影响。当前，债市关注的主要是 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View On July 4, the liquidity was abundant and loose. The yields of the bond market showed a divergent trend, with the medium - and short - end yields continuing to decline and the long - end yields rising slightly. The convertible bond market also showed divergence following the equity market, and most convertible bond issues declined. The 10 - year government bond yields of major European economies also showed a divergent trend [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News**: Minister of Finance Lan Fuan attended the 2025 BRICS Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting, expressing China's willingness to deepen BRICS financial cooperation. The New Development Bank of BRICS approved Colombia and Uzbekistan as new members. The central bank solicited public opinions on the revised business rules of the RMB Cross - border Payment System. The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges revised the ETF risk management business guidelines, which will take effect on August 1, 2025 [3][4]. - **International News**: Elon Musk announced the establishment of the "American Party" on July 5, aiming to "avoid US bankruptcy" and indicating participation in the 2026 mid - term elections. This marked the breakdown of his political alliance with Trump [6]. - **Commodities**: On July 4, Brent crude oil futures for September delivery fell 0.72% to $68.30 per barrel, with a weekly increase of 2.24%. Spot gold rose 0.33% to $3337.15 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 1.92%. NYMEX natural gas prices fell 0.53% to $3.387 per ounce [7]. 3.2 Liquidity - **Open Market Operations**: On July 4, the central bank conducted 34 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.40%. With 525.9 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal of funds was 491.9 billion yuan [9][10]. - **Funding Rates**: On July 4, the liquidity was abundant and loose, and major repurchase rates continued to decline. DR001 dropped 0.10bp to 1.314%, and DR007 dropped 4.52bp to 1.422%. Various inter - bank lending and repurchase rates also showed downward trends [11][12]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Rate Bonds**: - **Yield Trends**: On July 4, the trends of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds diverged. The medium - and short - end yields continued to decline due to loose liquidity, while the long - end yields rose slightly due to the stock - bond seesaw effect. For example, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 rose 0.15bp to 1.6410% [14]. - **Bond Tenders**: Information on the tendering of several bonds such as 25进出清发02, 25附息国债07(续2), and 25附息国债11(续2) was provided, including issuance scale, winning yields, and multiples [16]. - **Credit Bonds**: - **Secondary - Market Transaction Anomalies**: On July 4, the transaction prices of two industrial bonds deviated by more than 10%, with "H1碧地01" falling more than 66% and "H0中骏02" falling more than 19% [16]. - **Credit Bond Events**: Companies such as Sunac China, Fantasia Holdings, Vanke, and Yida China announced matters related to share issuance, debt restructuring, guarantee balances, and loan defaults [17]. - **Convertible Bonds**: - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices**: On July 4, the three major A - share indices showed different trends, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.32%, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index falling 0.25% and 0.36% respectively. The convertible bond market also showed divergence, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index and Shanghai Convertible Bond Index rising 0.15% and 0.24% respectively, and the Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index falling 0.01%. Most convertible bond issues declined [18]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: Some convertible bonds such as Jingao Convertible Bond proposed to lower the conversion price, and some such as Jingduan Convertible Bond announced early redemptions [24]. - **Overseas Bond Markets**: - **US Bond Market**: The US bond market was closed on July 4 due to the Independence Day holiday [21]. - **European Bond Market**: On July 4, the 10 - year government bond yields of major European economies showed a divergent trend. Germany's 10 - year government bond yield dropped 1bp to 2.57%, France's rose 1bp, and those of Italy and the UK remained unchanged, while Spain's dropped 1bp [22]. - **Price Changes of Chinese - Issued US - Dollar Bonds**: The daily price changes of some Chinese - issued US - dollar bonds as of July 4 were provided, including information on credit entities, bond codes, bond balances, and yields [25].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing narrow fluctuations due to a lack of trading drivers, but there are no clear negative factors impacting it [1][3]. Market Performance - The 10-year government bond yield slightly decreased by 0.2 basis points to 1.639% [1][3]. - The 30-year government bond yield remained unchanged at 1.8515% [1][3]. - The trading volume for 10-year and 30-year active bonds was below 1,000 transactions by the end of the day [3]. Futures Market - The 30-year main contract for government bond futures fell by 0.04% to 121.150 yuan, while the 10-year main contract remained flat at 109.105 yuan [1][3]. - The 30-year main contract opened at 121.34 yuan but subsequently declined [3]. Monetary Policy - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 106.5 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a net withdrawal of 225 billion yuan for the day [3]. - The Shibor short-term rates mostly declined, with the overnight rate dropping to 1.312%, the lowest since December 2024 [4]. Credit Market - The trading volume for non-financial credit bonds showed significant declines, with the top five falling bonds listed [8]. - Conversely, the top five rising non-financial credit bonds also showed positive performance [8]. Interbank Rates - The interbank repo rates showed mixed movements, with some rates remaining stable while others increased slightly [5][6][7].

Market Overview - The bond market experienced a warm oscillation last week, with a slight decline in long-term bond yields. The 10-year government bond futures main contract rose by 0.03%, while the 10-year bond yield fell by 0.29 basis points compared to the previous week [2][3] - The yield curve has steepened further, driven by a combination of factors including a loosening of the funding environment and a reduction in government bond issuance [1][3] Secondary Market - On July 1, the bond market was supported by a loosening funding environment and a reduction in government bond issuance, leading to a general decline in yields. The 10-year bond yield decreased by 0.36 basis points [4] - On July 2, the market continued to strengthen due to the increasingly loose funding environment, with the 10-year bond yield falling by 0.37 basis points [4] - On July 3, the bond market remained warm, with most yields declining, although the 10-year bond yield increased slightly by 0.11 basis points [4] - On July 4, short-term bonds continued to perform well due to the ongoing loose funding environment, while long-term bonds weakened slightly due to the stock-bond effect, with the 10-year bond yield rising by 0.26 basis points [4] Primary Market - A total of 47 bonds were issued last week, a decrease of 130 bonds from the previous week, with an issuance volume of 513.2 billion, down by 354.4 billion. The net financing amount was 376.6 billion, a significant decrease of 404.1 billion [11][12] - Government bonds, policy bank bonds, and local government bonds saw varying issuance trends, with government bonds and policy bank bonds increasing while local government bonds saw a significant decrease [11][12] Economic Indicators - The macroeconomic sentiment continued to improve in June, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from May. The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 50.5%, also up by 0.2 percentage points [13] - The service sector PMI decreased slightly to 50.1%, reflecting seasonal trends, while the composite PMI output index rose to 50.7%, indicating ongoing expansion [13] Liquidity Observation - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 1375.3 billion in the open market last week, indicating a tightening of liquidity despite the overall loose funding environment [24]

Domestic News - The Minister of Finance, Lan Fan'an, attended the 2025 BRICS Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting, emphasizing China's commitment to deepen financial cooperation among BRICS nations and support the development of the New Development Bank [2] - The People's Bank of China released a draft for public consultation regarding the rules for the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), aiming to optimize its functions and services [2] Market Dynamics - On July 4, the interbank market showed a mixed trend in major interest rate bonds, with short- to medium-term bonds continuing to decline due to ample liquidity, while long-term bonds experienced a slight increase [9][10] - The yield on the 10-year government bond rose by 0.15 basis points to 1.6410%, while the 10-year policy bank bond yield also increased by 0.15 basis points to 1.7175% [9][10] Credit Bonds - On July 4, two industrial bonds experienced significant price deviations, with "H1碧地01" dropping over 66% and "H0中骏02" declining over 19% [11] - Sunac China announced plans to issue 754 million shares to raise approximately 5.6 billion yuan to repay domestic bonds [11] Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market showed divergence, with the China Securities Index for convertible bonds rising by 0.15% and the Shenzhen index declining by 0.01% on July 4 [14] - The trading volume in the convertible bond market reached 82.835 billion yuan, an increase of 15.047 billion yuan from the previous trading day [14] - Notable performers included the newly listed electric chemical convertible bond, which hit the upper limit, and the Anke convertible bond, which rose over 36% [14][15] International Market - The yield on 10-year government bonds in major European economies showed mixed trends, with Germany's yield decreasing by 1 basis point to 2.57% while France's yield increased by 1 basis point [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The bond market is still in a favorable environment with the central bank maintaining a moderately loose policy, but there are potential disturbances. The third quarter may still be a good window for long - positions, but the time may be later [4][5][37]. - Short - term central bank's total - volume easing policies are relatively limited, and whether the capital interest rate will be further relaxed is worth discussing. The pricing of funds and certificates of deposit in the new steady - state needs further observation [4][21][37]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market Performance this Week - From June 30 to July 4, the bond market showed a volatile and strong pattern, with most yields of interest - rate bonds declining. After the cross - quarter period, the funds were loose, and the overnight interest rate dropped to 1.3%. The medium - and short - term bonds performed strongly, and the interest rate of 50 - year treasury bonds decreased significantly. As of July 4, the yields of 1Y, 2Y, 10Y, 30Y, and 50Y treasury bonds changed by - 0.9BP, - 0.7BP, - 0.3BP, + 0.2BP, - 3.4BP respectively from last week, reaching 1.34%, 1.35%, 1.64%, 1.85%, 1.94% [1][8]. 3.2 Understanding the Boundary of Central Bank's Easing - **July Liquidity Situation**: In July, the liquidity usually shows a seasonal loosening trend. The reasons include that July is a small month for credit lending, the maturity scale of certificates of deposit decreases, and the seasonal return of wealth - management funds. However, there are concerns such as the impact of fiscal and tax periods, the pressure of government bond supply, and the increase in the maturity scale of open - market operations. The central bank's monetary policy attitude is crucial, and the marginal pricing and phased steady - state of funds and certificates of deposit may become clearer in the middle of the quarter [16][20]. - **Central Bank's Policy Tools**: In the short term, the probability of the central bank cutting the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates is low. It may prefer to use tools such as MLF renewal and outright reverse repurchase to inject liquidity. The central bank may restart treasury bond purchases during the peak of government bond supply, especially in August - September [3][21]. 3.3 Potential Disturbances in the Bond Market - **Fundamental Changes under Tariff Deduction**: After the Sino - US tariff mitigation, the external demand and export pressure have eased, the economic pessimistic expectations have been revised, and the long - term interest rate may face upward pressure. However, there is still uncertainty in subsequent tariff policies [26]. - **Stock - Bond "Seesaw" Effect**: If the fundamentals stabilize and the economic recovery expectation strengthens, the risk preference may shift, and the stock - bond "seesaw" effect may be more prominent, which may suppress the bond market [29]. - **Incremental Policy Tools**: It is necessary to pay attention to the effectiveness of wide - credit restoration under the strengthening of fiscal policies and the impact of new policy - based financial tools on the bond market. The new policy - based financial tools may have a scale of 50 billion yuan, and if deployed in the third quarter, they may boost the economy in the third and fourth quarters [33][34]. 3.4 Next Week's Key Focus - July 7: China's foreign exchange reserves in June, Japan's international reserves in June [38]. - July 8: Japan's current account balance in May, Germany's export value in May [38]. - July 9: China's CPI year - on - year and PPI year - on - year in June, Japan's M2 year - on - year in June [38]. - July 10: China's social financing data and credit data in June [38]. - July 11: Germany's CPI year - on - year in June, UK's trade balance in May [38].