Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. Core Viewpoints - The non - ferrous metals sector is strong but volatile. The overall direction of monetary easing and ongoing contradictions in the mining end continue to support non - ferrous metals. However, due to factors such as capital outflows during Christmas, the sector experiences a round of strong consolidation. There are differences in fundamentals among non - ferrous metals, leading to a differentiation in strength. It is recommended to focus on opportunities where macro and micro factors resonate [12]. - Copper prices are expected to have an upward - moving central value in the future, driven by its financial attributes, valuation repair, and the global inventory structural contradiction. It is advisable to gradually go long on Shanghai Copper on dips [3]. - Zinc is in an oscillatory state. As long as the lower support level holds, one can go long on dips [4]. - For the aluminum industry chain, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see or long - biased approach. For alumina, a high - selling strategy is suggested [5]. - Tin is recommended to be on the sidelines, and attention should be paid to the trends of other non - ferrous metals and policy regulations [6]. - Lead shows a short - term upward trend, and one can go long on dips [8]. - Nickel and stainless steel are in a short - term bullish state, but attention should be paid to macro - liquidity changes and the implementation of Indonesian policies [9]. Summary by Section Part 1: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector is strong but volatile. Monetary easing continues, and contradictions in the mining end support the sector. Japan's intervention in the foreign exchange market weakens the US dollar, which is beneficial for non - ferrous metals. However, the appreciation of the RMB may lead to relatively stronger performance in the external market. During Christmas, capital outflows increase volatility, and non - ferrous metals experience a round of strong consolidation. The US economic data shows mixed performance, and China's economic data such as power consumption is positive. The non - ferrous metals sector has adjusted but moved away from lows, with internal differentiation in strength. Copper, with its tight supply - demand situation, drives the sector upward. As weak - performing varieties make up for losses, the sector may experience profit - taking and increased volatility. Attention should be paid to spot - market feedback [12]. - **This Week's Focus**: This week, the US will release a large amount of economic data, with the focus on the third - quarter real GDP on December 23. China will release the November industrial enterprise profit data on December 27. The Christmas holiday leads to market closures in the UK and the US [13]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Strategy** - **Copper**: Driven by factors such as the high - than - expected US GDP and inflation, and the global inventory structural contradiction, copper prices are expected to rise. It is advisable to go long on dips, with a short - term upper pressure range of 97,000 - 98,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 92,000 - 93,000 yuan/ton. Options strategies can consider buying near - month slightly out - of - the - money call options [3]. - **Zinc**: With a relatively warm macro environment and a slowdown in the decline of processing fees, zinc is in an oscillatory recovery state. It can be bought on dips as long as the support level holds, with an upper pressure range of 23,500 - 23,600 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 22,800 - 23,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: For electrolytic aluminum, it is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips, with an upper pressure range of 23,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 21,000 - 21,300 yuan/ton. For alumina, a high - selling strategy is recommended, with an upper pressure range of 2,800 - 3,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 2,000 - 2,200 yuan/ton. For recycled aluminum alloy, a wait - and - see or long - biased approach is suggested, with an upper pressure range of 21,500 - 21,800 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 20,000 - 20,400 yuan/ton [5]. - **Tin**: Affected by sector adjustment, policy利空, and nickel market resonance, it is recommended to wait and see, with an upper pressure range of 350,000 - 355,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 310,000 - 320,000 yuan/ton. Options strategies can consider buying out - of - the - money put options for protection [6][7]. - **Lead**: With a weak US dollar and cost support, lead prices are rising. It is advisable to go long in the short term, with a lower support range of 16,700 - 16,800 yuan/ton and an upper pressure range of 17,200 - 17,300 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Affected by the expected reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas and potential policy changes, nickel and stainless steel are short - term bullish. For nickel, the upper pressure range is 128,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 123,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton. For stainless steel, the upper pressure range is 13,000 - 13,200 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 12,500 - 12,600 yuan/ton [9]. Part 2: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The report provides the closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals futures, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy [17]. Part 3: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The report presents the latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector, including the price changes, net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position base values, changes in net long and short positions, and influencing factors of various varieties such as polysilicon, silver, lead, copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum alloy, aluminum, industrial silicon, gold, zinc, alumina, tin, and nickel [19]. Part 4: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The report shows the spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy [20][22]. Part 5: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - The report provides relevant charts for each non - ferrous metal in the industry chain, including inventory changes, processing fees, price trends, and other aspects of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, cast aluminum alloy, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [25][28][30] Part 6: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - The report provides relevant charts for non - ferrous metals arbitrage, including the Shanghai - London ratio changes, basis spreads, and other aspects of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [56][57][59] Part 7: Non - ferrous Metals Options - The report provides relevant charts for non - ferrous metals options, including historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume, open interest, and other aspects of copper, zinc, and aluminum [74][76][79]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices hit a new high, with the macro - environment remaining warm due to Fed liquidity support and global economic growth repair expectations in 2026. Fundamentals show low inventory and demand resilience, but high prices may suppress physical buying, and domestic inventories may increase. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [1]. - Alumina continued to decline, converging with futures, and the spot premium continued to narrow. Aluminum prices may face inventory build - up pressure and their upward momentum will be weak, continuing to oscillate at high levels [1][2]. - Nickel prices were boosted by news, but the actual implementation is unknown. Stainless steel inventory decreased, and new energy costs and demand weakened. Attention should be paid to market sentiment [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight, LME was closed, and the main contract of Shanghai copper rose 2.51% to 97,680 yuan/ton. Japan plans a large - scale budget in 2026, and the RMB exchange rate hit a new high. Domestic refined copper inventory increased by 2.52 million tons. High prices made downstream procurement cautious. A long - term bullish view is maintained, but buying on dips is recommended [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina oscillated weakly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy oscillated strongly. The increase in ore shipments and imports put pressure on alumina prices. Aluminum may face inventory build - up pressure, and prices will oscillate at high levels [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel rose 0.13%, and Shanghai nickel rose 1.35%. SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased. Indonesian nickel production may decline in 2026, and the government plans to revise the benchmark price formula. Nickel - related prices were mostly stable, and stainless steel inventory decreased [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On December 25, 2025, the price of flat - water copper increased by 70 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 20 yuan/ton. Domestic and foreign inventories showed different changes, and the import loss decreased by 30 yuan/ton [4]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased by 130 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton. Inventory decreased, and the import profit increased by 130 yuan/ton [4]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of Wuxi and Nanhai decreased, and the spot premium remained unchanged. Alumina inventory decreased, and aluminum inventory increased. The import loss increased by 40 yuan/ton [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 2,550 yuan/ton. Nickel inventory increased, and stainless steel inventory decreased slightly. The import profit decreased significantly [5]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price decreased by 0.8%. Inventory changes were mixed, and the import loss increased by 190 yuan/ton [7]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price decreased by 1.7%. Inventory increased, and the import loss increased by 5,920 yuan/ton [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [9][12][17]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [18][22][23]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [25][27][29]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [31][33][35]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [37][39][41]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [44][46][48]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience and achievements in non - ferrous metal research and have won many industry awards [51][52].

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For methanol, Iranian plants have started to shut down, leading to a resonance rebound in ports and inland areas, with a slight strengthening of the basis. Port inventories have decreased for two consecutive weeks, but floating storage is high, and it is expected to return to inventory accumulation later. It is believed that the end - point of contract 01 will still be high inventory, and it is advisable to do a 1 - 5 reverse spread on rallies [1]. - For polyethylene, the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are destocking, while social inventory remains flat. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. Domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as new plant commissioning in 2025 [3]. - For polypropylene, upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. The basis is - 60, non - standard price spreads are neutral, and import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year.后续供应预计环比略增加, downstream orders are average currently, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. In the context of over - capacity, contract 01 is expected to face neutral to excessive pressure, which can be alleviated if exports continue to increase or PDH plants have more maintenance [3]. - For PVC, the basis remains at 01 - 270, and the ex - factory basis is - 480. Downstream operating rates are seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. Attention should be paid to new plant commissioning and export sustainability in Q4. Current static inventory contradictions are accumulating slowly, costs are stable, and downstream performance is mediocre. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [3]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From December 19 to 25, 2025, the price of power coal futures remained at 801, while the prices of Jiangsu and South China spot, and other regional prices showed certain fluctuations, with daily changes such as a 25 - yuan decrease in Jiangsu spot [1]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: Iranian plants shut down, ports and inland areas rebounded, basis strengthened slightly, ports destocked for two weeks but floating storage was high, and it is expected to return to inventory accumulation. November shipments from Iran were 1.1 million tons, and it is difficult to reduce imports from December to January [1]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From December 19 to 25, 2025, prices of Northeast Asia ethylene, North China LL, and other products changed, with daily changes like a 10 - yuan decrease in North China LL [3]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: Sinopec and PetroChina's inventory is neutral year - on - year, upstream and coal - chemical industries are destocking, social inventory is flat, downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Overall inventory is neutral, import profit is around - 200, and domestic linear production has decreased recently [3]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From December 19 to 25, 2025, prices of Shandong propylene, Northeast Asia propylene, and other products changed, with daily changes such as a 75 - yuan increase in East China PP [3]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing, the basis is - 60, non - standard price spreads are neutral, import profit is around - 700, exports are good, and subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly [3]. PVC - **Price Data**: From December 19 to 25, 2025, prices of Northwest calcium carbide, Shandong caustic soda, and other products changed, with daily changes such as a 10 - yuan decrease in the price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China [3]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: The basis remains stable, downstream operating rates are seasonally weakening, mid - and upstream inventories are accumulating, and attention should be paid to new plant commissioning and export sustainability in Q4 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking spread rebounded, the monthly spread rebounded from a low level, and the basis rebounded. European high - sulfur cracking spread fluctuated, and the monthly spread weakened, while the EW continued to strengthen. The 0.5% cracking spread in Singapore weakened, the monthly spread fluctuated at a low level, and the basis also fluctuated at a low level. The European V low - sulfur cracking spread fluctuated at a low level [3][5]. - In terms of inventory, Singapore's residue oil inventory decreased, high - sulfur floating storage inventory increased, ARA's residue oil inventory was basically flat, Fujairah's residue oil inventory decreased significantly, high - sulfur floating storage inventory decreased, and EIA's residue oil inventory increased slightly [3][5]. - This week, the cracking spreads of gasoline and diesel in the external market continued to decline, and the price difference between low - sulfur and diesel continued to rebound. After the Al Zour refinery shut down due to a fire on October 21, the external low - sulfur market faced support, but the short - term upside space was limited [5]. - The global residue oil entered the off - season for inventory accumulation. The external cracking spread was affected by crude oil fluctuations and feedstock price premiums. This week, the external market's inventory decreased and the monthly spread strengthened, remaining volatile in the short term. The low - sulfur valuation was low but lacked a driving force [5]. 3. Data Summaries Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | 2025/12/19 | 2025/12/22 | 2025/12/23 | 2025/12/24 | 2025/12/25 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 323.91 | 332.23 | 333.06 | 331.79 | 331.98 | 0.19 | | 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 370.46 | 379.22 | 381.38 | 379.41 | 379.54 | 0.13 | | HSFO - Brent M1 | - 8.86 | - 8.91 | - 9.15 | - 9.49 | - 9.56 | - 0.07 | | 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 588.07 | 597.32 | 607.46 | 608.64 | 607.21 | - 1.43 | | VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 217.61 | - 218.10 | - 226.08 | - 229.23 | - 227.67 | 1.56 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 20.77 | 20.41 | 21.48 | 22.69 | - | - | | VLSFO - HSF M1 | 46.55 | 46.99 | 48.32 | 47.62 | 47.56 | - 0.06 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | 2025/12/19 | 2025/12/22 | 2025/12/23 | 2025/12/24 | 2025/12/25 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 380cst M1 | 335.69 | 340.79 | 347.07 | 347.60 | 344.23 | - 3.37 | | 180cst M1 | 342.69 | 347.66 | 352.82 | 352.53 | 349.23 | - 3.30 | | VLSFO M1 | 404.73 | 411.59 | 417.13 | 420.80 | 417.54 | - 3.26 | | GO M1 | 78.63 | 79.11 | 79.71 | 81.24 | 80.63 | - 0.61 | | 380cst - Brent M1 | - 6.57 | - 6.90 | - 6.88 | - 7.39 | - 7.63 | - 0.24 | | VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 177.13 | - 173.82 | - 172.72 | - 180.38 | - 179.12 | 1.26 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Product | 2025/12/19 | 2025/12/22 | 2025/12/23 | 2025/12/24 | 2025/12/25 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 332.35 | 337.57 | 344.15 | 343.65 | - | - | | FOB VLSFO | 403.41 | 410.73 | 416.98 | 417.55 | - | - | | 380 Basis | - 2.95 | - 2.80 | - 1.85 | - 1.60 | - | - | | High - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 2.9 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 5.3 | - | - | | Low - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 6.5 | 8.6 | 8.3 | 9.8 | - | - | [2] Domestic FU Data | Product | 2025/12/19 | 2025/12/22 | 2025/12/23 | 2025/12/24 | 2025/12/25 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2356 | 2413 | 2433 | 2415 | 2431 | 16 | | FU 05 | 2415 | 2474 | 2496 | 2498 | 2499 | 1 | | FU 09 | 2382 | 2440 | 2463 | 2468 | 2466 | - 2 | | FU 01 - 05 | - 59 | - 61 | - 63 | - 83 | - 68 | 15 | | FU 05 - 09 | 33 | 34 | 33 | 30 | 33 | 3 | | FU 09 - 01 | 26 | 27 | 30 | 53 | 35 | - 18 | [2] Domestic LU Data | Product | 2025/12/19 | 2025/12/22 | 2025/12/23 | 2025/12/24 | 2025/12/25 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 2886 | 2969 | 2976 | 3000 | 3070 | 70 | | LU 05 | 2912 | 2974 | 2994 | 3013 | 3008 | - 5 | | LU 09 | 2952 | 3010 | 3026 | 3039 | 3044 | 5 | | LU 01 - 05 | - | - 5 | - 18 | - 13 | 62 | 75 | | LU 05 - 09 | - 40 | - 36 | - 32 | - 26 | - 36 | - 10 | | LU 09 - 01 | 66 | 41 | 50 | 39 | - 26 | - 65 | [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the stock index market, although there is some uncertainty at the end of the year due to partial profit - taking by funds, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips as policy support for the capital market remains unchanged [4]. - In the bond market, short - term bonds are expected to fluctuate due to weak domestic demand and institutional behavior. Attention should be paid to the repair of the supply - demand relationship at the end of the year and the rebound after over - selling [6]. - For precious metals, considering the Fed's potential interest rate cuts and balance - sheet expansion, gold and silver prices are expected to be strong. It is recommended to hold long positions [10]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, different metals have different trends. For example, copper is expected to be in a high - level shock, aluminum to fluctuate, and zinc to be cautious about price shocks [13][15][17]. - In the black building materials market, steel prices are expected to remain in a bottom - range shock, and iron ore prices are expected to operate within a shock range [32][34]. - For energy and chemical products, different products have different strategies. For example, rubber can be short - term operated, and crude oil can be observed in the short - term [51][54]. - In the agricultural products market, different agricultural products such as hogs, eggs, and beans have different price trends and trading strategies [76][78][80]. Summary by Category Macro - financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: The central bank will conduct 400 billion yuan of MLF operations on December 25, 2025. Beijing has adjusted housing purchase restrictions, and multiple departments have urged e - commerce platforms to manage product quality. The Yanjiawo lithium mine in Yichun, Ningde is expected to resume production around the Spring Festival [2]. - **Strategy**: End - of - year profit - taking by some funds brings uncertainty, but the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On December 24, multiple departments in Beijing optimized housing policies. The central bank conducted 26 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Wednesday, with a net withdrawal of 20.8 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The short - term bond market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the supply - demand relationship repair and rebound [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold fell 0.23%, and silver rose 1.54%. US employment data exceeded expectations, suppressing precious metal prices in the short - term [8]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to hold long positions in gold and silver, with reference price ranges provided [10]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Offshore RMB strengthened, and copper prices rose. LME inventory decreased, and domestic demand was weak [12]. - **Strategy**: Copper prices are expected to be in a high - level shock, with a reference operating range provided [13]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rose. Domestic inventory increased slightly, and overseas inventory increased. Trading was light [14]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate, with a reference operating range provided [15]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rose. Zinc concentrate inventory increased, and LME zinc inventory increased [16]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious about price shocks caused by the departure of precious metal funds [17]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices rose. Lead concentrate inventory increased, and domestic lead supply tightened marginally [18]. - **Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to be strong in a wide - range in the short - term [19]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rose. Nickel ore prices were stable, and nickel iron prices increased slightly [20]. - **Strategy**: Although the surplus pressure is large, the short - term bottom may have appeared. It is recommended to observe [20]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices fell. Supply was stable at a high level but lacked upward momentum, and demand was weak [21]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe, with reference operating ranges provided [22]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: Carbonate lithium prices rose. The Yanjiawo lithium mine is expected to resume production around the Spring Festival [23][24]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe or lightly buy options, with a reference operating range provided [24]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices rose. Ore prices were expected to decline, and inventory was accumulating [25]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe in the short - term, with a reference operating range provided [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices rose. Indonesian nickel ore production targets were adjusted, and spot trading was light [27]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe and pay attention to policy implementation [27]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Casting aluminum alloy prices rose. Cost was firm, and supply was disrupted [28]. - **Strategy**: Prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [29]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: Steel prices rose slightly. Rebar supply and demand increased, and hot - rolled coil production decreased [31]. - **Strategy**: Steel prices are expected to remain in a bottom - range shock, and pay attention to policy impacts [32]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rose slightly. Overseas shipments decreased, and steel mill inventory was at a low level [33]. - **Strategy**: Iron ore prices are expected to operate within a shock range [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices rose, and soda ash prices rose slightly. Glass demand was weak, and soda ash inventory was accumulating [35][37]. - **Strategy**: Glass is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and it is recommended to short soda ash [36][38]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices fluctuated slightly. Spot prices were stable [39]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the impact of manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices rose, and polysilicon prices fell. Industrial silicon supply decreased slightly, and polysilicon demand was weak [42][44]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon is expected to follow market fluctuations, and polysilicon prices are unstable [43][46]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rose. There are different views on the market from bulls and bears [48]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to operate short - term and hold a hedging position [51]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil prices rose, and refined oil inventories decreased [52]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe in the short - term and test OPEC's export - supporting willingness [54]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices fluctuated. Port inventory decreased, but future pressure remains [55]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe, and the market is expected to consolidate at a low level [56]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices rose. Demand improved, and supply is expected to decline seasonally [57]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long at low prices [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene prices fell, and styrene prices rose. Supply and demand had different trends [59]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [61]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose. Supply was strong, and demand was weak [62]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [63]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. Supply was high, and inventory was accumulating [64]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious about the risk of price rebound due to increased maintenance [65]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose. Supply was under high - level maintenance, and demand was affected by the off - season [66]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips based on expectations [67]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: Para - xylene prices fell. Supply was high, and demand was weak [68]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices rose. Supply was high, and demand was in the off - season [70]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the LL5 - 9 spread at low prices [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices rose. Supply pressure was large, and demand was seasonally weak [72]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the supply - surplus situation to change in the first quarter of 2026 [73]. Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market Information**: Hog prices rose. Supply was large, and demand was stable [75]. - **Strategy**: Keep a short - term shock view and pay attention to long - term support [76]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable or fell. Supply was sufficient, and demand was average [77]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies in the short - term and pay attention to long - term pressure [78]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: CBOT soybeans rose. Domestic soybean inventory was high, and bean meal inventory increased [79]. - **Strategy**: Bean meal is expected to fluctuate [80]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Palm oil production and export data were mixed. Domestic oils and fats rebounded [81]. - **Strategy**: Observe high - frequency data for short - term operations [82]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices rebounded. Imported sugar supply decreased, and international production data was mixed [85]. - **Strategy**: International sugar prices may rebound after February, and domestic sugar prices may continue to rebound in the short - term [86]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices rose. Xinjiang may reduce cotton planting area, and import data was mixed [87][88]. - **Strategy**: Wait for a callback to go long [89].

合成橡胶产业日报 2025-12-24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 11395 | 220 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 99013 | -4086 | | | 合成橡胶2-3价差(日,元/吨) | -10 | 5 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 4560 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 东(日,元/吨) | 11000 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 0 | 10950 | 0 | | | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):上 | 11000 | 东(日,元/吨) 50 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,茂名石化):广 | 11150 | 50 | | | 海(日,元/吨) 基差:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) 布伦特原油(日,美元/桶) | -170 62.38 | 东(日,元/吨) -80 0.31 石脑油:CFR日本( ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The destocking cycle of styrene has ended, and the basis has weakened again. Overseas gasoline crack spreads are weak, reducing the support of overseas gasoline blending for pure benzene. Although the peak of pure benzene arrivals in China has passed, there is still some arrival pressure, and port inventories have continued to accumulate. The downstream styrene start - up has bottomed out and rebounded, while the non - styrene start - up is still poor. Styrene port inventories have rebounded again, entering the pre - holiday inventory accumulation cycle, and the downstream start - up has decreased again in the off - season [1][3] 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spreads - Pure benzene's main basis is - 100 yuan/ton (+34), and the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is - 135 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton). Styrene's main basis is 71 yuan/ton (+61 yuan/ton) [1] II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic and Foreign Spreads - Pure benzene's CFR China processing fee is 126 dollars/ton (- 6 dollars/ton), and FOB Korea processing fee is 119 dollars/ton (- 6 dollars/ton). Styrene's non - integrated production profit is - 190 yuan/ton (+30 yuan/ton), with an expected gradual compression [1] III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventories, Operating Rates - Pure benzene port inventory is 27.30 tons (+1.30 tons). Styrene's East China port inventory is 139,300 tons (+4,600 tons), and East China commercial inventory is 84,550 tons (+2,250 tons). Pure benzene's downstream operating rates vary: caprolactam is 69.20% (- 5.37%), phenol is 76.00% (- 3.50%), aniline is 61.35% (- 14.59%), and adipic acid is 59.60% (+0.40%). Styrene's operating rate is 69.1% (+0.8%) [1] IV. Styrene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - EPS production profit is 186 yuan/ton (+70 yuan/ton), PS production profit is 36 yuan/ton (- 30 yuan/ton), and ABS production profit is - 892 yuan/ton (+57 yuan/ton). EPS operating rate is 51.81% (- 1.96%), PS operating rate is 54.50% (- 3.80%), and ABS operating rate is 70.10% (- 0.43%) [2] V. Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Caprolactam production profit is - 350 yuan/ton (+0), phenol - acetone production profit is - 902 yuan/ton (+25), aniline production profit is 789 yuan/ton (+178), and adipic acid production profit is - 1018 yuan/ton (+0). Caprolactam operating rate is 69.20% (- 5.37%), phenol operating rate is 76.00% (- 3.50%), aniline operating rate is 61.35% (- 14.59%), and adipic acid operating rate is 59.60% (+0.40%) [1] 4. Strategies - Unilateral: None - Basis and inter - period: Do reverse arbitrage on BZ2603 - BZ2605 when the price is high - Cross - variety: Short BZ2603 and long PX2605 [4]

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-24 市场成交偏弱，钢价区间波动 玻璃纯碱：现货需求偏弱，玻碱窄幅震荡 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货偏弱震荡运行，现货方面，市场成交重心下移，下游按需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：玻璃产量高位震荡，供应收缩程度不足，刚需缺乏起色，供需矛盾依旧存在，且伴随春节临近，刚 需仍有进一步回落预期，叠加高库存压制，玻璃价格易跌难涨，持续关注玻璃冷修情况及宏观政策对玻璃投机需 求帶来的扰动。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货窄幅震荡运行，现货方面，下游观望情绪浓厚，刚需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：纯碱产量虽有下降，但仍处于同期较高位，且伴随新产线投产，纯碱供给或有进一步增加预期。目 前库存高位震荡，且考虑到后期浮法玻璃冷修计划仍有增加预期，重碱需求面临挑战，持续关注下游需求情况对 纯碱价格的影响。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡偏弱 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 供需与逻辑：上周硅铁产量大幅回落，企业主动调整生产节奏，应对需求下滑。硅铁企业库存压力得到缓解，硅 铁基本面矛盾有所缓和。关注后续硅铁去库情况、成本端变化及产区政策情况。 策略 硅锰方面：震荡 硅铁方面：震荡 风险 房地产政策、宏观数据 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking spread rebounded, the monthly spread rebounded from a low level, and the basis rebounded. European high - sulfur cracking spread fluctuated, the monthly spread weakened, and the EW continued to strengthen. The 0.5% cracking spread in Singapore weakened, the monthly spread fluctuated at a low level, and the basis fluctuated at a low level. European V low - sulfur cracking spread fluctuated at a low level [3]. - In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual fuel oil inventory decreased, high - sulfur floating storage inventory increased, ARA's residual fuel oil inventory was basically flat, Fujairah's residual fuel oil inventory decreased significantly, high - sulfur floating storage inventory decreased, and EIA's residual fuel oil inventory increased slightly [3]. - This week, the cracking spreads of gasoline and diesel in the external market continued to decline, and the price difference between low - sulfur fuel oil and diesel continued to rebound. After the fire at the Al Zour refinery on October 21, it stopped production, providing support for the external low - sulfur fuel oil market, but the short - term upward space is limited. Global residual fuel oil enters the off - season for inventory accumulation. The external cracking spread should pay attention to crude oil fluctuations and feedstock premium/discount levels. This week, the external market's inventory decreased and the monthly spread strengthened, remaining volatile in the short term. The valuation of low - sulfur fuel oil is low, but there is no driving force [4]. 3. Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data - From December 17 to December 23, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 increased from 325.12 to 335.28, a change of 3.05. The price of Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 increased from 368.94 to 383.22, a change of 4.00 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Data - From December 17 to December 23, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 increased from 337.69 to 348.22, a change of 7.43. The price of Singapore VLSFO M1 increased from 404.54 to 419.72, a change of 8.13 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From December 17 to December 23, 2025, the FOB price of 380cst increased from 333.61 to 344.15, a change of 6.58. The FOB price of VLSFO increased from 404.59 to 416.98, a change of 6.25 [2]. Domestic FU Data - From December 17 to December 23, 2025, the price of FU 01 increased from 2384 to 2433, a change of 20. The price of FU 05 increased from 2444 to 2496, a change of 22. The price of FU 09 increased from 2412 to 2463, a change of 23 [2]. Domestic LU Data - From December 17 to December 23, 2025, the price of LU 01 increased from 2864 to 2976, a change of 7. The price of LU 05 increased from 2912 to 2994, a change of 20. The price of LU 09 increased from 2956 to 3026, a change of 16 [3].

re 国际期货 TTGE _1X2 inks l留朗尚 | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[ 2012 ]31号 [TC 国贸期货 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 烯数据 25 | | | | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 投资咨询证:20017251 2025/12/23 | | | | | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格证:F3066728 = | | | | | 指标 | | 2025/12/19 | 2025/12/22 | 变动值 | 现货综述 | | | | | | WTI | 56. 15 | 56. 66 | 0. 51 | | | | | | 原油& | Brent | 59. 82 | 60. 47 | 0. 65 | | | | | | 石脑油 | 石脑油 | 534. 88 | 530. 88 | | 苯乙烯:江苏市场震荡整理。市场有部分买盘支撑, | | | | | | | | | | 和苯乙烯主力盘整理,江苏港口 ...