Core Viewpoint - As of the week ending December 11, China's methanol production reached 2,039,705 tons, reflecting an increase of 16,240 tons from the previous week, with a capacity utilization rate of 89.81%, up by 0.81% week-on-week [1] Production and Inventory - China's methanol production for the specified week was 2,039,705 tons, which is an increase of 16,240 tons compared to the previous week [1] - The capacity utilization rate for methanol production facilities was reported at 89.81%, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.81% [1] - The inventory level of sample production enterprises was 352,800 tons, which decreased by 8,700 tons, representing a 2.40% decline compared to the previous period [1] Orders and Demand - Sample enterprises had 207,500 tons of orders pending shipment, which is a reduction of 32,200 tons, indicating a 13.45% decrease from the previous period [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Bearish on rebounds [1] - L: Bearish trend continues [1] - PP: Bearish trend continues [1] - PVC: Bearish trend continues [1] - PX/PTA: Cautiously avoid short - selling [3] - Ethylene Glycol: Bottom - side oscillation [3] - Methanol: Cautiously avoid short - selling [3] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [3] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bearish [5] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [5] - Glass: Bearish trend continues [5] - Soda Ash: Bearish trend continues [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall energy and chemical market is under pressure due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances, geopolitical uncertainties, and cost - end fluctuations. For most products, there are concerns about oversupply and downward pressure on prices, while some products also face weakening demand expectations [1][3][5]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI rising 0.36%, Brent rising 0.44%, and SC falling 1.11%. As of December 5, the US oil rig count increased by 6 to 413. The EIA expects US oil demand to be 2059 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2058 million barrels per day in 2026. As of December 5, US crude inventories decreased by 1.812 million barrels to 425.69 million barrels [7][8][10]. - **Logic**: The surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the oil price rebound is bearish. Geopolitical uncertainties in South America have increased, and the US has seized a Venezuelan oil tanker. It is the off - season with supply surplus, as the consumption off - season coincides with the OPEC+ expansion cycle, global floating storage and in - transit crude oil have surged, and US crude and refined product inventories have both increased [1][9]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC [435 - 445] [11]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On December 10, the PG main contract closed at 4232 yuan/ton, a 1.01% decline. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4370 (-80) yuan/ton, 4424 (+32) yuan/ton, and 4440 (+0) yuan/ton respectively [13][14]. - **Logic**: The cost - end oil price drags down the LPG, and its trend is weak. The crude oil cost is in an oscillatory adjustment with a downward trend. On the supply - demand side, refinery operations have recovered, the commodity volume has increased, and downstream chemical demand has resilience. The inventory situation has improved, with port and in - plant inventories decreasing month - on - month [1][15]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of PG [4250 - 4350] [16]. L - **Market Performance**: The L2601 contract closed at 6699 yuan/ton (-8); North China Ningmei was at 6730 yuan/ton (-30); the basis was +31 yuan/ton (-22); and the warehouse receipt was 11701 lots (+0) [18][19]. - **Logic**: Cost support has strengthened, the futures price has rebounded from an oversold level, but the spot price has not followed up sufficiently, and the futures price has shifted to a premium structure. Domestic operations have seasonally recovered, and the supply side remains sufficient. After late November, the peak season for shed films has gradually ended, and demand support is insufficient. The oil price still has a downward risk in the medium term, and cost support is weak [20]. - **Strategy**: Exit short positions due to improved market sentiment. Wait for a rebound to go short in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to the range of L [6750 - 6900] [20]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP2601 closed at 6265 yuan/ton (-52), the East China drawn wire market price was 6354 yuan/ton (-24), the basis was +89 yuan/ton (+28), and the warehouse receipt was 15518 lots (-150) [22][23]. - **Logic**: The shutdown ratio has increased, and supply pressure has eased. However, both domestic and foreign demand support is insufficient, and there is still high pressure to reduce inventory in the future. OPEC+ is still in the production - expansion cycle, and the oil price still faces a continued downward risk in the medium term. Propylene warehouse receipts have been produced for the first time, and the futures price may be weak [24]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to be strong in the short term. Wait for a rebound to go short in the medium - to - long term, or go long on the PP processing fee 01. Pay attention to the range of PP [6350 - 6500] and propylene [5850 - 6000] [24]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V2601 closed at 4586 yuan/ton (+5); the Changzhou spot price was 4510 yuan/ton (-); the 01 basis was -76 yuan/ton (-5), and the warehouse receipt was 127934 lots (+2856) [25][26]. - **Logic**: Operations have remained at a high level, and the main contract hit a record low at night. During the macro - policy window period, trading has returned to the weak fundamentals. Social inventory remains at a high level, and there is insufficient upward momentum. However, due to low - valuation support and continuous compression of the chlor - alkali comprehensive gross profit, the downward space for the futures price is limited. Pay attention to the rhythm of capital position - shifting and contract - changing [27]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see in the short term. Wait for continuous inventory reduction to go long in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to the range of V [4350 - 4500] [27]. PX/PTA - **Market Performance**: TA05 was at 4752 yuan/ton, TA11 at 4704 yuan/ton, and TA01 at 4700 yuan/ton [28]. - **Logic**: The processing fee is generally low, and the PTA device maintenance intensity is high, which has alleviated the supply - side pressure. Downstream demand is relatively good but the expectation is weak. The cost - end support has weakened. In the short term, supply and demand are tight, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in December [29]. - **Strategy**: The 01 contract is under pressure but has bottom support. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the 05 contract at low levels or conduct a 1 - 5 reverse spread. Pay attention to the range of TA [4600 - 4660] [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The overall domestic ethylene glycol device operating load has decreased, and overseas devices have also slightly reduced their loads [32]. - **Logic**: Both domestic and overseas devices have generally reduced their loads, and demand is relatively good but the expectation is weak. Supply and demand have improved in the short term, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in December. The valuation of ethylene glycol is low, but there is a lack of upward drivers. It fluctuates with the cost in the short term and operates in a low - level oscillation [32]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG [3620 - 3700] [33]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: MA01 was at 2077 yuan/ton, MA05 at 2209 yuan/ton, and MA09 at 2179 yuan/ton [34]. - **Logic**: High inventory suppresses the rebound of the spot price. The domestic methanol device operating load has increased to a high level in the same period. Overseas devices have continuously reduced their loads. Port inventory has been continuously reduced from a high level, but the reduction speed has slowed down. The demand side has changed little, and the cost - end support has weakened. The fundamentals of methanol remain weak [35]. - **Strategy**: Cautiously bearish on the 01 contract. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the 05 contract at low levels. Pay attention to the range of MA01 [2035 - 2085] [37]. Urea - **Market Performance**: UR01 was at 1673 yuan/ton, UR05 at 1736 yuan/ton, and UR09 at 1752 yuan/ton [38]. - **Logic**: The spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong has strengthened. The daily urea output is as high as 192,500 tons. It is expected that the supply - side pressure will ease in mid - December as some gas - head enterprises stop production for maintenance. The short - term demand is relatively good but lacks sustainability. Social inventory has slightly decreased but remains at a high level in the same period. Since July, urea exports have maintained a high growth rate. In the context of the "export quota system" and "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices", the urea price has a ceiling and a floor. The domestic urea fundamentals are still loose [39]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions cautiously. Pay attention to the range of UR [1620 - 1660] [41]. Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On December 9, the NG main contract closed at 4.574 US dollars per million British thermal units, a 6.88% decline. The US Henry Hub spot was at 5.290 (-0.270) US dollars per million British thermal units, the Dutch TTF spot was at 9.460 (-0.173) US dollars per million British thermal units, and the Chinese LNG market price was at 4054 (-49) yuan/ton [43][44]. - **Logic**: The demand side has entered the consumption peak season. The extremely cold weather in the US has boosted heating demand, and the gas price has strengthened. However, the gas price has reached a high level in recent years, and the upward pressure has increased [45]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the range of NG [4.425 - 4.912] [46]. Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On December 10, the BU main contract closed at 2922 yuan/ton, a 0.20% decline. The market prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 2930 (+0) yuan/ton, 3150 (+0) yuan/ton, and 3010 (+0) yuan/ton respectively [48][49]. - **Logic**: The trend is mainly anchored to the cost - end crude oil. Recently, affected by the easing of the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation, the oil price has dropped significantly. The South American geopolitical situation has also eased recently, and the asphalt price still has room for compression [50]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of BU [2900 - 3000] [51]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG2601 closed at 1053 yuan/ton (-16); the Hubei market price was at 1130 yuan/ton (0); the basis was 77 yuan/ton (+16); and the SA - FG01 spread was 162 yuan/ton (+5) [53][54]. - **Logic**: The daily melting volume has declined again, and there are still plans to cold - repair multiple production lines in December. The current daily melting volume has dropped to 155,000 tons, driving the slow reduction of high - level factory inventory. In October, the real - estate price and volume accelerated their decline, and deep - processing orders remained at a low level in the same period. Weak demand restricts the rebound space [55]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the implementation of cold - repair in the short term, and the futures price may continue to be strong. Wait for a rebound to go short in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to the range of FG [1020 - 1070] [55]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA2601 closed at 1239 yuan/ton (+25); the Shahe heavy - quality soda ash market price was at 1200 yuan/ton (+30), the basis was -39 yuan/ton (+5), and the warehouse receipt was 1354 lots (+0) [57][58]. - **Logic**: Warehouse receipts have continued to increase at a high level, and industrial hedging has exerted pressure. The fundamentals show a double - reduction in supply and demand, and factory inventory has declined from a high level. Some devices have been overhauled or reduced their loads, and production has slightly declined. The cold - repair of float glass has increased, and demand has declined. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic + float glass has dropped to 248,000 tons. In the medium - to - long term, it is in the high - production - capacity cycle, and the supply will remain in a loose pattern [59]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions on the 01 soda - glass spread. Wait for a rebound to go short in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to the range of SA [1150 - 1200] [59].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the domestic pure benzene has a large real - time arrival pressure, with port inventory accelerating accumulation. The overseas gasoline shortage has passed, but the price difference between the US and South Korea in the pure benzene market is still being repaired. Downstream提货 is weak, and downstream开工 is further decreasing in the off - season. Styrene maintains low - load maintenance, CPL开工 drops to the lowest level of the year, phenol开工 rebounds, and aniline and adipic acid开工 fluctuate within a range [3]. - For styrene, port inventory further declines, and the port basis remains strong. Styrene maintains low - level operation, port inventory continues to decrease, and downstream提货 is acceptable. The downstream开工 shows differentiation. EPS开工 rebounds slightly in the off - season but still has inventory pressure; ABS开工 decreases due to continuous finished - product inventory pressure; PS开工 continues to rise at the end of the year as the finished - product inventory pressure eases [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spread - The pure benzene main contract basis is - 130 yuan/ton (+12), and the spot - M2 paper cargo spread is - 150 yuan/ton (+35 yuan/ton). The EB main contract basis is 156 yuan/ton (- 48 yuan/ton) [1]. 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene CFR China processing fee is 116 US dollars/ton (+2 US dollars/ton), and FOB South Korea processing fee is 113 US dollars/ton (+1 US dollar/ton). The pure benzene US - South Korea price difference is 195.0 US dollars/ton (+14.0 US dollars/ton). Styrene non - integrated production profit is - 140 yuan/ton (- 121 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress [1]. 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene port inventory is 26.00 million tons (+3.60 million tons), and styrene East China port inventory is 146,800 tons (- 13,800 tons), and the East China commercial inventory is 87,800 tons (- 8,600 tons). Pure benzene开工 rate data is not provided, and styrene开工 rate is 68.9% (+1.6%) [1]. 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - EPS production profit is 191 yuan/ton (+153 yuan/ton), PS production profit is - 9 yuan/ton (+153 yuan/ton), and ABS production profit is - 776 yuan/ton (+89 yuan/ton). EPS开工 rate is 56.36% (+1.61%), PS开工 rate is 59.00% (+1.40%), and ABS开工 rate is 68.30% (- 2.90%) [2]. 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam production profit is - 360 yuan/ton (+90), phenol - ketone production profit is - 952 yuan/ton (+25), aniline production profit is 848 yuan/ton (+95), and adipic acid production profit is - 1,129 yuan/ton (+59). Caprolactam开工 rate is 79.15% (- 7.53%), phenol开工 rate is 82.00% (+1.00%), aniline开工 rate is 77.23% (+0.04%), and adipic acid开工 rate is 60.00% (+0.60%) [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: None - Basis and Inter - period: Conduct inter - period positive arbitrage for EB2601 - EB2602 at low prices. - Cross - variety: Expand the spread of EB2601 - BZ2603 at low prices [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: Iranian plants have started to shut down, leading to a resonance rebound in ports and inland areas, with a slight strengthening of the basis. Port inventories have decreased for two consecutive weeks, but there are many floating storage tanks. It is expected to return to inventory accumulation later. The 01 contract on the futures market offers a risk - free arbitrage opportunity for imports, and it is believed that the 01 contract will end with high inventories. It is advisable to do a 1 - 5 reverse spread on rallies [1]. - **Polyethylene**: The inventory of the two major state - owned petrochemical companies is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are reducing inventories, while social inventories remain flat. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 contract basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Import profits are around - 200 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, and other price spreads are fluctuating. LD prices are weakening. Domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as new plant commissioning in 2025 [3]. - **Polypropylene**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price spreads are neutral, and import profits are around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price spreads are neutral. PDH profits are around - 400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable.拉丝 production scheduling is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly. Downstream orders are average currently, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH plant overhauls, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [3]. - **PVC**: The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream开工率 is seasonally weakening, but there is a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. In summer, Northwest plants have seasonal overhauls, and the load center is between the spring overhaul and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to production capacity commissioning and export sustainability. Near - term export orders have declined slightly. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. Calcium carbide profits are under pressure due to PVC overhauls. Attention should be paid to subsequent export orders for caustic soda. PVC comprehensive profits are - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, costs are stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and开工率 [3]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From December 4 to December 10, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The prices of methanol in different regions and related indicators such as import profits, basis, and MTO profits changed. For example, the import profit on December 4 was 7, and on December 10, the basis was 25 [1]. - **Market Situation**: Iranian plants have shut down, causing a resonance rebound in ports and inland areas. Ports have seen two consecutive weeks of inventory reduction, but there are many floating storage tanks. It is expected to return to inventory accumulation later. The 01 contract on the futures market offers an import risk - free arbitrage opportunity [1]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From December 4 to December 10, 2025, prices of Northeast Asian ethylene, various types of polyethylene in different regions, and related indicators such as import profits, basis, and two - oil inventories changed. For example, the import profit on December 4 was 139, and on December 10, the basis was - 30 [3]. - **Market Situation**: The inventory of the two major state - owned petrochemical companies is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are reducing inventories, while social inventories remain flat. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. Import profits are around - 200 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, and other price spreads are fluctuating. LD prices are weakening. Domestic linear production has decreased recently [3]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From December 4 to December 10, 2025, prices of Shandong propylene, Northeast Asian propylene, various types of polypropylene in different regions, and related indicators such as export profits, basis, and two - oil inventories changed. For example, the export profit on December 4 was - 4, and on December 10, the basis was - 70 [3]. - **Market Situation**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price spreads are neutral, and import profits are around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price spreads are neutral. PDH profits are around - 400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable. Future supply is expected to increase slightly [3]. PVC - **Price Data**: From December 4 to December 10, 2025, prices of Northwest calcium carbide, Shandong caustic soda, various types of PVC in different regions, and related indicators such as export profits, comprehensive profits, and basis changed. For example, the export profit on December 4 was 179, and on December 10, the basis was - 20 [3]. - **Market Situation**: The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream开工率 is seasonally weakening, but there is a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. In summer, Northwest plants have seasonal overhauls. Near - term export orders have declined slightly. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. Calcium carbide profits are under pressure due to PVC overhauls [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, with an unexpectedly dovish stance, which is expected to improve global liquidity in the short - term and boost risk assets. A - shares may have short - term upward opportunities, but high - level chasing should be treated with caution [3]. - The pressure on the bond market to decline may have passed its peak, and the bond futures may return to a sideways trend in the short - term. There is a possibility of a phased rebound in the bond market later, and investors are advised to wait and see for now [3]. - Precious metals have increased fluctuations, and short - term gold prices need to build momentum to break the sideways pattern. Silver may face increased trading congestion, and investors should be cautious about chasing high prices [3]. 3. Summary by Categories 3.1 Daily Selected Views - **Bullish**: Tin (SN2601) is expected to be sideways with an upward bias; Methanol (MA2601) and rebar (rb2501) are expected to be sideways with an upward bias at the bottom [3]. - **Bearish**: Corn (C2601) is expected to be sideways with a downward bias [3]. 3.2 All - Variety Daily Reviews 3.2.1 Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures**: Due to the Fed's interest rate cut, short - term global liquidity expectations will improve, and A - shares have short - term upward opportunities. It is recommended to go long intraday but be cautious about high - level chasing, and consider using protective options or bull spread strategies [3]. - **Bond Futures**: The pressure on the bond market to decline may have passed, and bond futures may return to a sideways trend. It is recommended to wait and see for now and pay attention to the outcome of the Central Economic Work Conference. Positive arbitrage opportunities between TL and TF2603 contracts can be gradually considered [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices are fluctuating in the range of $4150 - 4260 and need to build momentum to break the sideways pattern. Silver may face increased trading congestion after a rapid rise. It is recommended to use a virtual option double - selling strategy for gold and be cautious about chasing high prices for silver [3]. 3.2.2 Industrial Products - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel prices have stopped falling and are expected to continue to move sideways. Iron ore is expected to weaken from its high - level sideways movement, and coking coal and coke are also expected to be bearish [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: For copper, long - term long positions can be held. Aluminum prices are affected by the Fed's interest rate decision, and it is recommended to take profits for previous long positions and then go long again. For other non - ferrous metals, different trading strategies are provided according to their respective fundamentals [3]. - **New Energy and Chemicals**: Polysilicon futures are rising, while industrial silicon prices are falling. PX has support at low levels, while PTA and short - fiber are expected to be weak in the short - term. Different trading strategies are recommended for various chemical products based on their supply - demand situations [3]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Corn is expected to be sideways with a downward bias, while soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to move in a narrow range. Palm oil has broken through support levels, and its main contract is testing the support at 8500 [3]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The spot price of live pigs is expected to be sideways with an upward bias in the short - term due to pickling demand [3]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Sugar is expected to move sideways at the bottom, cotton is expected to be sideways with an upward bias, and eggs are expected to be sideways with a downward bias [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore fluctuated, the monthly spread was at a historical low, strengthened slightly on Friday, the basis weakened and then strengthened slightly on Friday; the cracking spread of European HSFO fluctuated weakly, and the EW spread fluctuated. The cracking spread of 0.5% fuel oil in Singapore weakened, with the monthly spread and basis fluctuating at low levels. [3] - In terms of inventory, Singapore's residue oil had a slight inventory build - up, high - sulfur floating storage had a slight inventory draw - down, ARA's residue oil had a slight inventory build - up, Fujairah's residue oil had a significant inventory build - up, high - sulfur floating storage had an inventory draw - down, and EIA's residue oil had a slight inventory build - up. [3] - With the increasing expectation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, the cracking spreads of gasoline and diesel in the external market continued to decline this week, and the price difference between low - sulfur fuel oil and diesel continued to rebound. After the fire at Al Zour refinery on October 21, the external low - sulfur fuel oil was supported, but the short - term upside space was limited. [4] - The global heavy - oil market entered the off - season with inventory build - up. The external cracking spread was affected by crude oil fluctuations, and there was no improvement in the spot market. FU01 should be treated bearishly. The valuation of low - sulfur fuel oil was low but there was no driving force. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From December 3 to December 9, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 dropped from 348.42 to 335.47, a decrease of 4.32; the price of Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 dropped from 390.01 to 381.64, a decrease of 3.04. [1] - The Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 spread changed by 0.06, the Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 decreased by 11.68, the Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 increased by 8.64, the LGO - Brent M1 decreased by 0.96, and the Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 increased by 1.28. [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From December 3 to December 9, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 dropped from 345.72 to 341.31, a decrease of 11.08; the price of Singapore 180cst M1 dropped from 350.42 to 349.84, a decrease of 9.74; the price of Singapore VLSFO M1 dropped from 419.63 to 416.32, a decrease of 10.14. [1] - The price of Singapore GO M1 dropped from 83.93 to 83.59, a decrease of 1.87; the Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 spread decreased by 0.31, and the Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 increased by 3.69. [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From December 3 to December 9, 2025, the FOB price of 380cst dropped from 334.01 to 333.81, a decrease of 9.72; the FOB price of VLSFO dropped from 418.67 to 415.01, a decrease of 10.02. [2] - The 380 - cst basis increased by 1.18, the high - sulfur internal - external price difference decreased by 0.4, and the low - sulfur internal - external price difference decreased by 0.3. [2] Domestic FU Data - From December 3 to December 9, 2025, the price of FU 01 dropped from 2437 to 2418, a decrease of 90; the price of FU 05 dropped from 2499 to 2488, a decrease of 85; the price of FU 09 dropped from 2468 to 2464, a decrease of 70. [2] - The FU 01 - 05 spread decreased by 5, the FU 05 - 09 spread decreased by 15, and the FU 09 - 01 spread increased by 20. [2] Domestic LU Data - From December 3 to December 9, 2025, the price of LU 01 dropped from 3010 to 2989, a decrease of 82; the price of LU 05 dropped from 3021 to 3003, a decrease of 88; the price of LU 09 dropped from 3060 to 3033, a decrease of 72. [3] - The LU 01 - 05 spread increased by 6, the LU 05 - 09 spread decreased by 16, and the LU 09 - 01 spread increased by 10. [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the pure benzene market, there is significant short - term arrival pressure in China, leading to accelerated accumulation of port inventories. The most critical period for overseas gasoline has passed, but the price difference between the US and South Korea in the pure benzene market is still being repaired. Downstream提货 remains weak, and downstream operating rates are at a low level during the off - season. - In the styrene market, the port basis continues to be strong. Styrene maintains low - level operation, and port inventories continue to decline. Downstream operating rates show differentiation, with EPS operating rate rebounding slightly, ABS operating rate decreasing due to inventory pressure, and PS operating rate continuing to rise at the end of the year [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spread - Pure benzene: The main basis is - 142 yuan/ton (+48), and the spot - M2 spread is - 185 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton) [1]. - Styrene: The main basis is 204 yuan/ton (+73 yuan/ton) [1]. 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: CFR China processing fee is 115 dollars/ton (+0 dollars/ton), FOB South Korea processing fee is 113 dollars/ton (+3 dollars/ton), and the US - South Korea spread is 181.0 dollars/ton (+1.1 dollars/ton) [1]. - Styrene: Non - integrated production profit is - 19 yuan/ton (-4 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress [1]. 3. Inventories and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: Port inventory is 26.00 million tons (+3.60 million tons), and the operating rate of downstream products shows different trends, with CPL operating rate dropping to the lowest level of the year, phenol operating rate rising, and aniline and adipic acid operating rates fluctuating within a range [1][3]. - Styrene: East China port inventory is 146,800 tons (-13,800 tons), East China commercial inventory is 87,800 tons (-8,600 tons), and the operating rate is 68.9% (+1.6%) [1]. 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream Products - EPS: Production profit is 38 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 56.36% (+1.61%) [2]. - PS: Production profit is - 162 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 59.00% (+1.40%) [2]. - ABS: Production profit is - 865 yuan/ton (-69 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 68.30% (-2.90%) [2]. 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream Products - Caprolactam: Production profit is - 450 yuan/ton (+20), and the operating rate is 79.15% (-7.53%) [1]. - Phenol - acetone: Production profit is - 977 yuan/ton (+0), and the operating rate is 82.00% (+1.00%) [1]. - Aniline: Production profit is 848 yuan/ton (+95), and the operating rate is 77.23% (+0.04%) [1]. - Adipic acid: Production profit is - 1188 yuan/ton (+45), and the operating rate is 60.00% (+0.60%) [1]. Strategies - Unilateral: None. - Basis and Inter - period: Go for long - short spread trading on EB2601 - EB2602 when the price is low. - Cross - variety: Expand the spread of EB2601 - BZ2603 when the price is low [4].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年12月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡下跌，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差走强。个别聚酯工厂集中补货。12月货在01-25~28有成 交，12月底个别略高在01-20~22附近，价格商谈区间在4610~4650。今日主流现货基差在01-26。中性 2、基差：现货4630，01合约基差-14，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.92天，环比增加0.14天 偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向下，收盘价收于20日均线之下 偏空 5、主力持仓：净多 多减 偏多 6、预期：近期PTA供需格局变动不大，部分聚酯工厂阶段性补货，现货基差区间 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The cost of imported soybeans may have reached its bottom, but the upside space requires greater production cuts. Soybean meal is expected to trade in a range. [5] - The short - term inventory build - up of palm oil may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to try a buy - on - dips strategy. [9] - The international sugar price may lack significant improvement until the first quarter of next year. It is advisable to take a short - term wait - and - see approach. [13] - Zhengzhou cotton is unlikely to have a unilateral trend. [17] - The egg futures contracts may be overvalued, and attention should be paid to the upside pressure. [20] - For hog futures, it is recommended to maintain a reverse spread strategy, gradually shifting from shorting near - term contracts to longing far - term contracts. [23] Summary by Categories Soybean and Soybean Meal - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans declined. The USDA monthly report was almost the same as the previous forecast. The domestic soybean meal spot price dropped by 10 yuan, with the East China price at 3000 yuan/ton. The purchase and pick - up of soybean meal were good. MYSTEEL estimated the soybean crushing volume of oil mills this week to be 2.05583 million tons, down from 2.2116 million tons last week. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased last week. [2] - **Weather and Planting**: Brazil's main soybean - growing areas are forecast to have more rainfall in the next two weeks, with a planting rate of 94%. Argentina's main producing areas are expected to have less rainfall. The global soybean inventory - to - sales ratio is still relatively high year - on - year. [3] - **Import and Supply**: The estimated annual production of new global soybeans has been marginally lowered, and the supply has decreased compared to the 24/25 season. The domestic soybean inventory is at a relatively high level in history, and the soybean meal inventory is large, but the de - stocking season is approaching. [5] Palm Oil - **Market Conditions**: In November, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased significantly compared to the previous month, and the production showed a mixed trend. On Tuesday, domestic oils closed lower. [6] - **Strategy**: The production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia has exceeded expectations this year, suppressing the market. However, due to seasonal factors, it is recommended to try a buy - on - dips strategy. [9] Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract was 5247 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton or 0.06% from the previous trading day. The spot prices of sugar in different regions remained stable. [11] - **Production**: As of December 7, 2025/26, 56 sugar mills in Guangxi had started production, with a daily cane - crushing capacity of 425,000 tons, down 112,500 tons year - on - year. In the first half of November, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased year - on - year, and India's sugar production also increased significantly. [12] - **Strategy**: It is expected that the production of major sugar - producing countries will increase in the new season, and the global sugar supply - demand relationship will shift from shortage to surplus. It is advisable to take a short - term wait - and - see approach. [13] Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated, with the closing price of the May contract at 13,725 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot price of cotton decreased slightly. [15] - **Supply and Demand**: As of December 5, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.3%, down 0.2 percentage points from last week. The national commercial cotton inventory was 4.47 million tons, up 150,000 tons year - on - year. The global cotton production in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase. [16] - **Strategy**: Zhengzhou cotton is unlikely to have a unilateral trend due to the lack of strong drivers and the pressure of hedging. [17] Eggs - **Market Conditions**: Most egg prices in the country were stable, with a few rising. The average price in the main producing areas increased by 0.02 yuan to 3.01 yuan/jin. The market inventory was low, and the demand in the sales areas was good. [19] - **Strategy**: The egg futures contracts may be overvalued, and attention should be paid to the upside pressure. [20] Hogs - **Market Conditions**: Domestic hog prices were half stable and half rising. The supply and demand were in a stalemate, with the supply basically stable and the demand increasing only in the southwest region. [22] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to maintain a reverse spread strategy, gradually shifting from shorting near - term contracts to longing far - term contracts. [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Crude Oil - Monday saw a decline in international crude oil prices due to factors such as the resumption of normal operations in some Iraqi oil fields, the continuous production - increase plan of OPEC+, high - level US crude oil production, and an increase in crude oil inventory. However, the ongoing Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the expected Fed rate cut next week are likely to support prices. Short - term Brent crude is expected to trade between $60 - 65 per barrel [1]. Natural Rubber - On the supply side, the continuous decline in Thai raw material prices, the expected increase in overseas supply, the weakening of upstream cost support, and the seasonal increase in overseas shipments have led to a continuous build - up of natural rubber inventory, suppressing spot prices. On the demand side, although tire production is gradually recovering, the overall output increase is limited, and the market is mainly focused on inventory digestion. Short - term rubber prices are expected to be weak and volatile [3]. Methanol - Methanol futures fluctuated narrowly. Spot was purchased on - demand, and the basis was firm. Inland supply increased with plant restarts, but coal - and gas - based production profits were weak. Traditional downstream demand increased slightly, and winter fuel demand provided support. In ports, Iranian gas restrictions led to multiple plant shutdowns, strengthening the expectation of inventory reduction, but high overseas shipments and a large number of registered warrants kept prices weak. Attention should be paid to MTO05 [6][7]. LLDPE and PP - The operating load of polyethylene is gradually increasing, and supply is on the rise. Although upstream inventory is being depleted, it is still higher than the same period last year, and the profit from naphtha cracking is low. The supply of polypropylene is expected to increase after maintenance, and inventory depletion is accelerating, but the overall inventory level is still high. The cost of propylene is strong, compressing the profit of PP production processes. Overall, the fundamentals show a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - For pure benzene, domestic supply is expected to remain stable, downstream cash flow has improved slightly, but demand support is limited. There will be a large number of imports arriving at ports, and port inventory is expected to continue to build up. The short - term price driver is weak, and it may follow oil prices and styrene fluctuations. For styrene, although planned and unplanned maintenance is expected to increase, the overall operating rate may rise slightly, and port inventory may continue to decline. However, due to weak cost support and seasonal weakening of terminal demand, the upside space is limited [14]. Urea - Supply pressure is continuously released as the daily production on December 8 reached a recent high. Demand is in the off - season, and downstream procurement willingness is weak. Although the inventory depletion rate of enterprises has accelerated, the overall inventory level is still high. The mismatch between supply and demand is the main reason for price decline, and short - term prices are expected to be weak and volatile [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, short - term supply is less affected, but there is an expected supply contraction in the medium - term. Demand is relatively strong, and short - term price drivers are limited, but medium - term support is strong. PTA supply is expected to decrease in November - December, and demand is relatively strong, with short - term price support. Ethylene glycol is expected to continue to decline due to high overseas supply and inventory build - up. Short - fiber supply remains high, and demand is seasonally weak, with limited price drivers. Polyester bottle - chip supply is expected to increase in December, and demand is weak, with processing fees expected to be squeezed [16]. LPG - The data shows price fluctuations in LPG futures and spot markets, as well as changes in inventory and operating rates. Overall, the market is in a state of adjustment, and attention should be paid to changes in supply and demand and international market prices [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash production is at a high level, and it is expected to return to the inventory - build - up pattern this week. Downstream demand is shrinking, and the supply - demand pattern is bearish. Glass prices in some regions are weakening, and although there is still some short - term demand support, the medium - and long - term demand outlook is not optimistic [19]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda industry supply is abundant, demand is weak, and prices are expected to be weak. PVC supply pressure remains high, demand is low, and although there is some export advantage, overall supply exceeds demand, and prices are expected to be weak [20]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent crude fell from $63.75 to $62.49 per barrel (-1.98%), WTI from $60.08 to $58.88 per barrel (-2.00%), and SC rose from 453.40 to 456.40 yuan/ton (0.66%). Various spreads also showed different degrees of change [1]. - **Refined Oil**: Prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil all declined, and their spreads also changed [1]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: Crack spreads of various refined oil products in different regions decreased [1]. Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan Guofu new - type rubber increased slightly, while the price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased. The basis of whole - milk rubber increased [3]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread increased significantly, while the 1 - 5 and 5 - 9 spreads decreased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, production in Thailand, Indonesia, and China decreased, while production in India increased. Tire production and export decreased, and inventory increased [3]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices showed small fluctuations, and various spreads also changed [6]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all decreased [6]. - **Operating Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise operating rates increased slightly, while some downstream operating rates changed [7]. LLDPE and PP - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of LLDPE and PP decreased slightly, and various spreads changed [11]. - **Operating Rates and Inventory**: PE and PP operating rates showed different trends, and enterprise and social inventories decreased [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Crude oil, naphtha, and other upstream prices changed, and spreads between products also changed [14]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene prices and spreads showed different degrees of change [14]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories and operating rates in different regions changed [14]. Urea - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: Futures prices and spreads changed [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply increased, demand was weak, and inventory was at a high level [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: Upstream crude oil, naphtha, and other prices changed, and downstream polyester product prices and cash flows also changed [16]. - **PX, PTA, and MEG**: Prices, spreads, inventory, and operating rates of PX, PTA, and MEG all changed [16]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of LPG changed, and various spreads also changed [17]. - **External Market Prices**: LPG external market prices increased slightly [17]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: LPG inventory decreased, and upstream and downstream operating rates changed [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash prices and spreads changed [19]. - **Supply, Inventory, and Real - Estate Data**: Supply, inventory, and real - estate data showed different trends [19]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices and Spreads**: PVC and caustic soda prices and spreads changed [20]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Supply, demand, and inventory of PVC and caustic soda showed different trends [20].