Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the domestic commodity market remains positive, but the upward momentum is slowing, and there is uncertainty in overseas trade. The prices of various non - ferrous metals are expected to show different trends based on their respective supply - demand fundamentals and external factors [2][4]. Summary by Metals Copper - Last week, copper prices fluctuated weakly. LME copper fell 1.92% to $9,663/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78,320 yuan/ton. Total inventories in three major exchanges increased by 22,000 tons. Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper starting August 1st, which may widen the price gap between US copper and LME/Shanghai copper, putting pressure on the latter. With the raw material shortage situation weakening and the current off - season, copper prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The operating range for SHFE copper this week is 76,800 - 79,200 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $9,400 - 9,800/ton [2]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices first declined and then rose last week. SHFE aluminum rose 0.29%, and LME aluminum rose 0.17% to $2,602/ton. Domestic aluminum ingot inventories decreased, while bonded area inventories increased. Aluminum rod inventories increased, and processing fees were low. With the domestic commodity atmosphere positive but slowing, and the downstream in the off - season, aluminum ingots are expected to accumulate inventory, and aluminum prices may fluctuate weakly. The operating range for domestic main contracts is 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2,530 - 2,650/ton [4]. Lead - Last Friday, SHFE lead index fell 0.85% to 17,092 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell to $2,027.5/ton. The supply of lead ingots is relatively loose, and social and enterprise inventories are accumulating. With the approaching peak season, downstream demand is improving. Due to the high concentration of long - positions in the LME lead July contract, lead prices are showing a relatively strong trend, but the increase in SHFE lead may be limited due to weak domestic consumption [5]. Zinc - SHFE zinc index rose 0.03% to 22,355 yuan/ton last Friday, and LME zinc 3S rose to $2,777/ton. Domestic zinc ore supply is still abundant, and zinc ingot supply is expected to increase. In the long - term, zinc prices are bearish. In the short - term, due to the dovish atmosphere of the Fed and the positive sentiment in the market, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate. The current domestic social inventory is 90,300 tons [6]. Tin - Tin prices fell after high - level fluctuations last week. The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is ongoing, but the actual output is yet to come. The shortage of raw materials for smelters persists, and downstream demand is weak. With the supply and demand in short - term balance and the increasing expectation of Myanmar's resumption, tin prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The operating range for domestic tin prices is 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton, and for LME tin is $31,000 - 34,000/ton [7][8]. Nickel - Nickel prices fluctuated last week. The main contradiction lies in the ferro - nickel production line. Due to weak stainless steel demand, the profit of ferro - nickel production is compressed, and the price of nickel ore has weakened. In July, the surplus pressure of ferro - nickel has slightly eased, but the downstream demand for stainless steel is still weak. Nickel prices are expected to be affected by the price difference between nickel and ferro - nickel, and it is recommended to short at high prices. The operating range for SHFE nickel is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $14,500 - 16,000/ton [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The spot index of lithium carbonate was flat on Friday, up 1.22% for the week. The price of lithium concentrate imported from Australia increased. The supply - demand relationship of lithium carbonate has not changed significantly, with downstream in the off - season and supply at a high level. Without macro - level positive factors, the upward space of lithium prices is limited. The operating range for the main contract of Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 63,040 - 65,200 yuan/ton [11]. Alumina - On July 11, the alumina index fell 2.7% to 3,100 yuan/ton. Spot prices in some regions increased, and the import window was closed. With the expectation of stronger ore prices in the medium - term and the positive sentiment in the commodity market, the futures price may be strong in the short - term, but the over - capacity situation remains. It is recommended to short at high prices. The operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2,850 - 3,300 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,710 yuan/ton on Friday, down 1.20%. Spot prices in some markets were flat. It is currently the off - season for stainless steel consumption, and the supply - demand imbalance is difficult to reverse in the short - term. The spot market is expected to remain weak [15]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The futures price of cast aluminum alloy first declined and then rose last week. The AD2511 contract rose 0.23% to 19,930 yuan/ton. Spot prices increased, and the production profit of enterprises improved slightly. The overall supply and demand are weak in the off - season. Considering the slowdown of aluminum price increase and the large difference between futures and spot prices, the upward resistance of cast aluminum alloy prices is large [17][19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Zinc declined and then rebounded, with a weekly change of -0.13% and an amplitude of 2.72%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 22,380 yuan/ton [4]. - In terms of the macro - aspect, there are differences within the Fed. Some believe that the impact of tariffs on inflation will not be long - lasting, while others expect it to last until next year. Bentsen said Trump has unique abilities in identifying and solving problems but may lack patience in implementation. Two interest rate cuts are expected this year [4]. - Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has increased, and the zinc ore processing fee has continued to rise. Coupled with a significant increase in sulfuric acid prices, the smelter's profit has been further repaired, and production enthusiasm has increased. New production capacities in various regions have been gradually released, and the previously shut - down capacities have resumed production, leading to a faster growth in supply. Currently, the import window is closed, and the inflow of imported zinc has decreased. On the demand side, the downstream has entered the off - season, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased year - on - year. Recently, zinc prices have been adjusting widely. Downstream buyers mainly purchase at low prices and still have a low acceptance of high - priced zinc. Domestic social inventories have increased slightly, and the spot premium is at a low level. The LME zinc premium overseas has risen, and inventories have continued to decline, driving up domestic prices [4]. - Technically, positions have decreased, and both long and short sides are cautious. The price is oscillating within a range, and attention should be paid to the resistance at 22,500 [4]. - Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see or conduct range operations [4]. Summaries by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Zinc declined and then rebounded this week, with a weekly change of -0.13% and an amplitude of 2.72%. The closing price of the main contract was 22,380 yuan/ton [4]. - **Market Outlook**: In the macro - aspect, Fed members have different views on tariff - related inflation. Two interest rate cuts are expected this year. Fundamentally, supply is increasing due to factors like increased zinc ore imports and processing fees. Demand is weak as it is the off - season. Technically, the price is in a range - bound oscillation [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Suggest waiting and seeing or conducting range operations [4]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Ratio**: As of July 11, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Zinc was 22,380 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from July 4, a decrease of 0.13%. As of July 10, 2025, the closing price of LME zinc was 2,777 dollars/ton, up 39 dollars/ton from July 4, an increase of 1.42%. The Shanghai - London ratio has decreased [9]. - **Net Positions and Open Interest**: As of July 11, 2025, the net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc were 33,000 lots, a decrease of 4,442 lots from July 4. The open interest was 252,089 lots, a decrease of 10,644 lots or 4.05% from July 4 [11]. - **Price Spreads**: As of July 11, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,685 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from July 4. The lead - zinc futures spread was 5,305 yuan/ton, an increase of 190 yuan/ton from July 4 [18]. - **Premiums**: As of July 11, 2025, the spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 22,510 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from July 4, an increase of 0.09%. The spot premium was 5 yuan/ton, a decrease from last week. As of July 10, 2025, the LME zinc near - month and 3 - month spread was 4.68 dollars/ton, an increase of 26.67 dollars/ton from July 3 [24]. - **Inventories**: As of July 11, 2025, LME refined zinc inventories were 105,250 tons, a decrease of 7,075 tons or 6.3% from July 4. Shanghai Futures Exchange refined zinc inventories were 49,981 tons, an increase of 4,617 tons or 10.18% from last week. As of July 10, 2025, domestic refined zinc social inventories were 72,500 tons, an increase of 8,900 tons or 13.99% from July 3 [27]. 3. Industry Situation - **Upstream**: In April 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0192 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.61% and a year - on - year increase of 9.71%. In May 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 491,522.01 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.64% and a year - on - year increase of 85.28% [31]. - **Supply - side**: - According to WBMS, there is a global shortage of refined zinc supply [32]. - In May 2025, China's zinc production was 583,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. From January to May, the cumulative zinc output was 2.919 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3% [39]. - In May 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 26,716.51 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 39.85%. The export volume was 1,414.24 tons, a year - on - year increase of 65.97% [42]. - **Downstream**: - From January to May 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 769,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.49%. In May 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 36,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.3%. The export volume was 338,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.57% [45]. - From January to May 2025, the new housing construction area was 231.8361 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 22.95%. The housing completion area was 183.8514 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 40.94%. From January to May 2025, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 4.023241 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3%. Among them, personal mortgage loans were 564.452 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8.5% [48][49]. - In May 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.72, a decrease of 0.13 from the previous month and an increase of 1.81 from the same period last year. From January to May 2025, infrastructure investment increased by 10.42% year - on - year [53][54]. - In May 2025, refrigerator production was 8.51 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3%. From January to May, the cumulative refrigerator production was 40.713 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%. In May 2025, air - conditioner production was 29.48 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. From January to May, the cumulative air - conditioner production was 134.909 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.9% [56][57]. - In May 2025, China's automobile sales volume was 2,686,337 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.15%. The automobile production was 2,648,536 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.65% [61].

Report Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Date: July 11, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Core Viewpoints - The MPOB report was slightly bearish as the unexpected decline in exports in June exceeded the decrease in production and the increase in domestic consumption, causing the palm oil inventory to rise for the fourth consecutive month. The market did not expect such a significant drop in exports, with a 10.52% month - on - month decline in June. However, due to Malaysia's reduction in export tariffs in July, exports may increase, and strong exports limit the market decline. The upward space for palm oil is limited, and short - selling opportunities near the resistance level are worth attention [8]. - The market is waiting to see if the visit of the Australian Prime Minister to China will involve changes in rapeseed trade policies. For soybean oil, the supply is abundant and it is the off - season for demand. The 09 spread between soybean oil and palm oil has dropped significantly to a technically oversold level and may recover [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market prices: Dongguan rapeseed oil traders' quotes are Dongguan triple - pressed rapeseed oil 09 + 60 and first - pressed rapeseed oil 09 + 240. In the East China market, the basis price of first - grade soybean oil is spot basis 09 + 150, Y2509 + 220 from July to September, and Y2601 + 300 from October to January. In South China, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil is P09 + 150 yuan/ton, with real - order negotiation [7]. - Oil and fat comments: The MPOB report showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of June was 2.0306 million tons, an increase of 47,800 tons from May, a 2.41% month - on - month increase. The report was slightly bearish. Due to the reduction of export tariffs in July, exports may increase. AmSpec data showed a 12% month - on - month increase in palm oil exports from July 1 - 10. The upward space for palm oil is limited. The market is waiting for news on rapeseed trade policies. Soybean oil supply is loose, and the 09 spread between soybean oil and palm oil may recover [8]. 2. Industry News - Malaysia's palm oil production in June 2025 was 1.6923 million tons, a decrease of 79,300 tons from May, a 4.48% month - on - month decline. Imports were 70,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from May, a 1.51% month - on - month increase. Exports were 1.2594 million tons, a decrease of 148,100 tons from May, a 10.52% month - on - month decline. The end - of - month inventory was 2.0306 million tons, an increase of 47,800 tons from May, a 2.41% month - on - month increase [9]. - South American crop expert Dr. Michael Cordonnier maintained the 2025 US soybean yield forecast at 51.5 bushels per acre. If the weather remains favorable, the yield may be further adjusted upwards [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts including the spot price of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, fourth - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, palm oil basis changes, soybean oil basis changes, rapeseed oil basis changes, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar to Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, and US dollar to RMB exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][13][22][24][29][30]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The recent BZ2603 rally results from the combined forces of industry anti - arbitrage and the compression of styrene production profit. The BZ futures premium has further expanded, with limited potential for increasing the pure benzene processing fee. Styrene port inventory is continuously accumulating, and its production profit faces further compression pressure. The decline in EPS and PS开工 further drags down EB demand [3] Summary by Directory I. Basis Structure and Inter - period Spread of Pure Benzene and EB - Relevant figures include the pure benzene main contract basis, pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, pure benzene consecutive one - contract to consecutive three - contract spread, EB main contract trend & basis, EB main contract basis, and styrene consecutive one - contract to consecutive three - contract spread [8][11][14][17] II. Production Profit and Internal - External Spread of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Relevant figures cover naphtha processing fee, pure benzene FOB Korea - naphtha CFR Japan spread, styrene non - integrated plant production profit, pure benzene FOB US Gulf - pure benzene FOB Korea spread, pure benzene FOB US Gulf - CFR China spread, pure benzene FOB Rotterdam - CFR China spread, pure benzene import profit, styrene import profit, styrene FOB US Gulf - CFR China spread, and styrene FOB Rotterdam - CFR China spread [19][22][27][30][32] III. Inventory and Operating Rate of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Relevant figures are pure benzene East China port inventory, pure benzene operating rate, styrene East China port inventory, styrene operating rate, styrene East China commercial inventory, and styrene factory inventory [37][39][42] IV. Operating Rate and Production Profit of Styrene Downstream - Relevant figures involve EPS operating rate, EPS production profit, PS operating rate, PS production profit, ABS operating rate, and ABS production profit [48][50][52] V. Operating Rate and Production Profit of Pure Benzene Downstream - Relevant figures include caprolactam operating rate, phenol - acetone operating rate, aniline operating rate, adipic acid operating rate, caprolactam production gross profit, phenol - acetone production gross profit, aniline production gross profit, adipic acid production gross profit, PA6 regular spun bright production gross profit, nylon filament production gross profit, bisphenol A production gross profit, PC production gross profit, epoxy resin E - 51 production gross profit, pure MDI production gross profit, and polymer MDI production gross profit [57][61][70][78][81][82] Market Data Pure Benzene - Main contract basis: - 268 yuan/ton (- 103) [1] - Port inventory: 17.40 tons (- 0.30 tons) [1] - CFR China processing fee: 140 dollars/ton (- 5 dollars/ton) [1] - FOB Korea processing fee: 126 dollars/ton (- 5 dollars/ton) [1] - US - Korea spread: 113.9 dollars/ton (- 7.0 dollars/ton) [1] - East China pure benzene spot - M2 spread: - 95 yuan/ton (- 15 yuan/ton) [1] Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam production profit: - 1910 yuan/ton (- 105) [1] - Phenol - acetone production profit: - 564 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1] - Aniline production profit: - 171 yuan/ton (- 305) [1] - Adipic acid production profit: - 1487 yuan/ton (- 72) [1] - Caprolactam operating rate: 95.72% (+ 0.00%) [1] - Phenol operating rate: 78.00% (- 0.50%) [1] - Aniline operating rate: 70.90% (+ 1.66%) [1] - Adipic acid operating rate: 65.70% (+ 1.40%) [1] Styrene - Main contract basis: 205 yuan/ton (- 80 yuan/ton) [1] - Non - integrated production profit: 219 yuan/ton (+ 26 yuan/ton), expected to gradually compress [1] - East China port inventory: 111,500 tons (+ 12,700 tons) [1] - East China commercial inventory: 39,000 tons (+ 7,700 tons), in the inventory rebuilding stage [1] - Operating rate: 79.2% (- 0.8%) [1] Styrene Downstream (Hard Rubber) - EPS production profit: - 48 yuan/ton (- 89 yuan/ton) [2] - PS production profit: - 298 yuan/ton (- 39 yuan/ton) [2] - ABS production profit: 318 yuan/ton (- 74 yuan/ton) [2] - EPS operating rate: 51.06% (- 4.82%) [2] - PS operating rate: 51.10% (- 1.30%) [2] - ABS operating rate: 65.00% (- 0.04%), at a seasonal low [2] Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see for pure benzene and styrene [4] - Basis and inter - period: For near - month BZ paper cargo - far - month BZ2603 futures, conduct anti - arbitrage at high prices [4] - Cross - variety: Narrow the EB - BZ spread at high prices [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products are rated as "Oscillating" [1][2][3][4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices oscillated. The EIA data showed an increase in US crude oil inventories last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased. The market demand is strong as it digests OPEC+'s production increase without inventory accumulation. With OPEC+ increasing supply, the demand remains resilient, leading to an oscillating and slightly upward - trending oil price [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contracts of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil rose on Wednesday. The domestic refinery operating rate decreased slightly. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is expected to be tight, while the supply pressure will continue to suppress the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market. In the short term, it will mainly oscillate following the cost - end crude oil [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract rose on Wednesday. The inventory level was stable week - on - week, and the operating rate increased. The impact of the adjustment of the consumption tax deduction policy has not yet appeared. The supply in July is stable with a slight increase. The demand in the south is slowly recovering, while the rainfall in the north hinders demand. It will oscillate following the cost - end crude oil [2]. - **Polyester**: The prices of polyester products such as TA, EG, and PX rose slightly on Wednesday. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. TA inventory may gradually accumulate, and there is a strong expectation of inventory accumulation for ethylene glycol in the third quarter, with its price under pressure [2]. - **Rubber**: The prices of rubber products such as RU, NR, and BR rose slightly on Wednesday. The rubber - producing areas are in full - scale tapping, raw material prices are loose, downstream tire operating rates declined, and inventory slightly increased. It is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to rubber purchase and storage news and tariff negotiations between Vietnam and the US [3]. - **Methanol**: The production of Iranian devices is gradually recovering. Although the short - term arrival volume has not increased much, the long - term arrival volume will increase. The short - term supply shortage has eased, and the price has returned to an oscillating trend [3]. - **Polyolefins**: The upstream is still in the maintenance season, with little change in overall supply. As the off - season arrives, downstream operating rates have declined, and enterprises purchase on demand. The price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [4]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: Recently, the profit of chlor - alkali has decreased, and enterprise operating rates have declined. Although demand has not improved significantly, the fundamentals have not deteriorated. Before the market provides obvious opportunities, short - selling is not recommended, and attention should be paid to the impact of macro - policies [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI August contract closed up $0.05 to $68.38 per barrel, a 0.07% increase; Brent September contract closed up $0.04 to $70.19 per barrel, a 0.06% increase; SC2508 closed at 520.1 yuan per barrel, up 4.4 yuan per barrel, a 0.85% increase. US crude oil inventories increased by 7.1 million barrels to 426 million barrels last week, far exceeding expectations [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contract FU2509 of high - sulfur fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.51% to 2982 yuan per ton; the main contract LU2509 of low - sulfur fuel oil rose 0.82% to 3692 yuan per ton. As of July 9, the operating rate of domestic refineries was 63.61%, down 0.46 percentage points from last week [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: The main contract BU2509 of asphalt on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.86% to 3623 yuan per ton. The total inventory level of domestic refineries was 27.91%, unchanged week - on - week; the social inventory rate was 35.81%, up 0.33% week - on - week; the operating rate of asphalt plants was 35.53%, up 2.72% week - on - week [2]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4718 yuan per ton, up 0.17%; EG2509 closed at 4283 yuan per ton, up 0.37%; PX futures main contract 509 closed at 6724 yuan per ton, up 0.42%. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were about 40% [2]. - **Rubber**: The main contract RU2509 of natural rubber rose 60 yuan per ton to 14045 yuan per ton; NR main contract rose 25 yuan per ton to 12095 yuan per ton; BR main contract rose 5 yuan per ton to 11310 yuan per ton. As of July 6, the social inventory of natural rubber decreased by 0.02 million tons, a 0.02% decrease [3]. - **Methanol**: The spot price in Taicang was 2385 yuan per ton, the price in Inner Mongolia's northern line was 1962.5 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was 275 - 279 US dollars per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was 339 - 344 US dollars per ton [3]. - **Polyolefins**: The mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 7050 - 7180 yuan per ton. The profit of oil - based PP was - 341.35 yuan per ton, and the profit of coal - based PP was 911.73 yuan per ton [4]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The price of PVC in East China was stable, with the mainstream price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 material at 4740 - 4840 yuan per ton, and the mainstream price of ethylene - based material at 4800 - 5150 yuan per ton [4]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - This part provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on July 10, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [5]. 3.3 Market News - The Red Sea, a global important shipping route, was attacked again last week after months of calm. The attacker is suspected to be the Yemeni Houthi rebels supported by Iran, and a cargo ship sank, causing at least 4 crew members to die [7]. - The EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories increased last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased [7]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: It shows the closing price trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [9][11][13][15][17][19] - **Main Contract Basis**: It presents the basis trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [22][23][24][25] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the spreads between different contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc. [36][37][38][39][41][42][44][45][47][48][49][51][52] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes the spreads between different varieties such as crude oil's internal and external markets, B - W spread of crude oil, high - and low - sulfur spread of fuel oil, etc. [53][54][55] - **Production Profits**: It shows the production profit trends of products such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [58][59][60][61][62] 3.5 Research Team Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director of the Research Institute and Director of Energy and Chemicals, with over ten years of experience in futures and derivatives market research [64]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth research on the energy industry chain [65]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, good at data analysis and logical reasoning [66]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in combining financial theory and industrial operations [67].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Fats and Oils - Palm oil futures may face a new round of decline after the end of the current rally, with long - term risks of falling below 4000 ringgit. Domestically, Dalian palm oil futures may encounter short - term resistance around 8650 yuan and should be watched for effective support around 8500 yuan. - CBOT soybean oil is mainly affected by the price trend of new - crop US soybeans and trade relations. Domestically, the spot basis is dragged down by the oil mill's full inventory, but the possibility of a large - scale reduction in the basis is low due to the expected limited soybean imports in the fourth quarter [1]. Corn - In the short term, the market sentiment is gradually digested. Corn's decline is limited due to the tight supply of remaining grain, and the futures price will fluctuate narrowly. It is recommended to wait and see the subsequent policy release [3]. Sugar - The global sugar supply is becoming more abundant, putting pressure on raw sugar prices. Although the low inventory in Guangxi supports the spot price, considering the expected increase in imports, the domestic sugar market is expected to be bearish after a rebound [8]. Cotton - The downstream cotton industry remains weak, and the overall demand is insufficient. The short - term domestic cotton price may oscillate in a higher range than in mid - June. However, if the downstream situation continues to deteriorate, there is a risk of price decline [10]. Meal - The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the soybean meal basis is stable. However, with a high volume of arrivals expected, attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand. The soybean meal futures price is currently in the bottom - grinding stage [12]. Livestock (Pigs) - The current pig farming profit has returned to a low level, and the market is cautious about expanding production capacity. Although there is short - term bullish sentiment for a potential market improvement in July and August, the 09 contract is facing increasing upward pressure [16]. Eggs - The supply of eggs in the market is sufficient, but the price has reached a phased low. Traders may replenish their stocks at low prices, and the demand is expected to improve. Egg prices in most regions are expected to stabilize and then rise slightly, while a few regions may see a slight decline [18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fats and Oils - **Price Changes**: On July 9, 2025, compared with July 8, the spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil increased by 40 yuan to 8170 yuan, a 0.49% increase; the futures price of Y2509 decreased by 26 yuan to 7920 yuan, a 0.33% decrease. The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil increased by 120 yuan to 8700 yuan, a 1.75% increase; the futures price of P2509 increased by 34 yuan to 8678 yuan, a 0.39% increase. The spot price of Jiangsu fourth - grade rapeseed oil increased by 50 yuan to 9680 yuan, a 0.52% increase; the futures price of OI509 decreased by 88 yuan to 9510 yuan, a 0.92% decrease [1]. Corn - **Price and Market Data**: On July 10, 2025, compared with the previous value, the futures price of corn 2509 decreased by 2 yuan to 2319 yuan/ton, a 0.09% decrease; the basis increased by 2 yuan to 41 yuan, a 5.13% increase. The futures price of corn starch 2509 increased by 1 yuan to 2677 yuan/ton, a 0.04% increase; the basis decreased by 1 yuan to 23 yuan, a 4.17% decrease [3]. Sugar - **Price and Market Data**: On July 10, 2025, compared with the previous value, the futures price of sugar 2601 increased by 17 yuan to 5606 yuan/ton, a 0.30% increase; the futures price of sugar 2509 increased by 32 yuan to 5779 yuan/ton, a 0.56% increase. The spot price in Nanning increased by 20 yuan to 6040 yuan, a 0.33% increase; the spot price in Kunming increased by 485 yuan to 6365 yuan, an 8.25% increase [7]. Cotton - **Price and Market Data**: On July 10, 2025, compared with the previous value, the futures price of cotton 2509 increased by 45 yuan to 13830 yuan/ton, a 0.33% increase; the futures price of cotton 2601 increased by 25 yuan to 13785 yuan/ton, a 0.18% increase. The commercial inventory decreased by 29.71 tons to 282.98 tons, a 9.5% decrease; the industrial inventory decreased by 2.71 tons to 90.30 tons, a 2.9% decrease [10]. Meal - **Price and Market Data**: On July 10, 2025, compared with the previous value, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal remained unchanged at 2800 yuan; the futures price of M2509 increased by 12 yuan to 2947 yuan, a 0.41% increase. The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal remained unchanged at 2480 yuan; the futures price of RM2509 increased by 10 yuan to 2586 yuan, a 0.39% increase [12]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Price and Market Data**: On July 10, 2025, compared with the previous value, the futures price of live - hog 2511 decreased by 85 yuan to 13600 yuan/ton, a 0.62% decrease; the futures price of live - hog 2509 decreased by 10 yuan to 14265 yuan/ton, a 0.07% decrease. The spot price in Henan decreased by 970 yuan to 14080 yuan; the spot price in Shandong decreased by 1030 yuan to 14170 yuan [15]. Eggs - **Price and Market Data**: On July 10, 2025, compared with the previous value, the futures price of egg 09 contract increased by 17 yuan to 3596 yuan/500KG, a 0.47% increase; the futures price of egg 08 contract increased by 39 yuan to 3484 yuan/500KG, a 1.13% increase. The egg - to - feed ratio decreased by 0.10 to 2.19, a 4.37% decrease; the farming profit decreased by 6.27 yuan/feather to - 36.71 yuan/feather, a 20.60% decrease [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, the short - term driving force is weak, and the price follows the cost fluctuation. In July, there are few maintenance plans, and the Sanfangxiang PTA device is expected to be put into production, increasing the supply. The terminal demand is in the off - season, and the polyester factory's inventory pressure is accumulating, with a downward expectation for polyester, which is negative for the PTA spot market [5]. - For MEG, the supply - demand structure is gradually changing, with an obvious inventory accumulation expectation in the third quarter. The willingness of traders to hold goods is poor. The supply - demand weakening and the polyester off - season put pressure on the MEG disk. The price will be mainly in the low - range consolidation in the short term [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No relevant information provided 3.2 Daily Tips - **PTA**: The PTA futures rose slightly yesterday. The spot market negotiation was average, mainly by traders, with individual polyester factories making bids. The spot basis weakened rapidly and then stabilized. The expected supply increase and weak terminal demand are negative factors [5]. - **MEG**: On Wednesday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated narrowly. The spot basis was stable, and the external market was at a low level. The supply - demand structure is changing, and there is an inventory accumulation expectation [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - **PTA**: Focus on the downstream polyester load fluctuation [5]. - **MEG**: Focus on the return efficiency of the supply side and the change of the cost side [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **PTA**: The PTA factory inventory is 3.95 days, a decrease of 0.14 days compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, but the closing price is below it. The main position is net short with an increase in short positions [5]. - **MEG**: The total inventory in the East China region is 53.20 tons, an increase of 2.73 tons compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is below it. The main position is net short with an increase in short positions [6]. 3.5 Impact Factor Summary - **Likely Factors**: The PX operating rate remains at a relatively high level [8]. - **Negative Factors**: Iran confirmed a cease - fire, and the terminal demand is weakening due to the end of the rush - to - export period and the domestic demand off - season [9]. 3.6 Current Main Logic and Risk Points - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. There is still an inventory accumulation expectation at the raw material end. After the disk rebounds, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10]. 3.7 Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **PTA**: The supply - demand balance sheet shows the changes in PTA production capacity, output, import, export, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [10]. - **MEG**: The supply - demand balance sheet shows the changes in MEG's total operating rate, output, import, consumption, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. 3.8 Price and Profit Data - **Price**: The prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers have changed on July 9, 2025, compared with July 8, 2025 [13]. - **Profit**: The processing fees and profits of PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers have also changed [13].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. However, it provides mid - term outlooks for each energy and chemical product, including "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", "oscillating strongly", etc., which can be used as a reference for investment ratings of different products [3][5][10] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international diesel futures continue to be strong, and the downstream performance is eye - catching, providing support for crude oil prices. The overall energy and chemical market is expected to oscillate, waiting for new supply - demand drivers [1][3] - Oil - chemical products may have a small rebound due to the continuous strength of crude oil prices and the unfulfilled expectation of a decline in refined oil crack spreads, but the downstream and terminal industries do not support a trend - upward movement [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Market Overview - Diesel remains strong, with the immediate spread of European ICE diesel reaching its highest level since 2022 and the US diesel crack spread rising. The low inventory in the US and Europe, combined with refinery outages and good demand, contributes to the strength of refined oil. The global crude oil inventory has not increased further since June [1] - Chemical product basis has stabilized slightly after a significant decline. Oil - chemical products may have a small rebound, but the downstream does not support a long - term upward trend. The spread between pure benzene and styrene is still narrowing [2] 2. Variety Analysis Crude Oil - US crude oil commercial inventory increased significantly on a weekly basis, and oil prices remained stable. On July 9, EIA reported that US gasoline demand was still very strong. The market is in an oscillating pattern, and diesel remains strong. OPEC + may increase production in September, and the US sanctions on Iran remain unchanged [5][8] Asphalt - Asphalt futures prices face significant downward pressure. OPEC + may increase production in August and September, increasing heavy - oil supply. Domestic asphalt raw material supply is sufficient, and production is expected to increase in July. The demand side shows that asphalt is overvalued [10][11] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil futures prices face downward pressure. OPEC + may increase production, and the decline in natural gas prices may reduce the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil for power generation. China's increase in fuel oil import tariffs and the decline in geopolitical tensions also have a negative impact [12] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices follow crude oil to oscillate. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, and is expected to maintain a low - valuation operation [13] LPG - The cost - side support of LPG weakens, and the fundamental pattern of oversupply remains unchanged. The PG futures may oscillate weakly due to factors such as the significant reduction in CP prices in July, the rapid accumulation of US propane inventory, and weak domestic demand [14][15] PX - Crude oil prices rise, driving PX to rebound. In the short term, the tight - balance pattern of PX continues, but the terminal market does not provide strong support, and the absolute price of PX has a downward trend [17] PTA - PTA is affected by terminal negative feedback and oscillates weakly. It is expected that the PTA market will decline this week due to factors such as the expected weakness of crude oil prices, the increase in PTA spot circulation, and the possible reduction in production by downstream polyester factories [17] Pure Benzene - Pure benzene has risen continuously due to positive news of downstream production. In the medium term, the situation in July - August is favorable, but high inventory may suppress the rebound [18] Styrene - Styrene rebounds driven by the strength of pure benzene. However, its own supply - demand situation is expected to weaken, and port inventory is accumulating [22] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - EG is boosted by the rise in energy prices and oscillates due to its own supply - demand situation. The EG09 contract has upward elasticity, while the 01 contract may be shorted on rebounds [23][24] Short - Fiber - Short - fiber production and sales have slightly increased, the basis is stable, and processing fees have risen. The short - fiber supply - demand pattern oscillates, and the downstream weakness has not been transmitted to short - fiber itself [24] Bottle Chips - Bottle chips are in the maintenance cycle, and processing fees need to remain low to promote maintenance. The absolute value of bottle chips follows raw materials, and the further compression space of spot processing fees is limited [26] Methanol - Methanol port inventory accumulates, and it oscillates. The price in Inner Mongolia has decreased, and the logic of reduced imports has weakened. The port inventory has increased, and the coal supply is sufficient [27][28] Urea - Urea has a situation of weak supply and demand, and exports support the market. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. The spot market is active, and exports help reduce inventory [28] Plastic (LLDPE) - The short - term driving force of LLDPE is limited, and it oscillates. The raw material support is weakening, the supply side has pressure, and the demand side is in the off - season [30][31] PP - PP maintenance has increased slightly, and it oscillates in the short term. The cost - side support is weakening, the supply side has an increasing trend, and the demand side is weak [32] PVC - PVC has low valuation and weak supply - demand, and it oscillates. The new production capacity will be put into operation, the downstream demand is weak, and the export situation has not improved significantly [34] Caustic Soda - Caustic soda may be in a situation where downstream replenishes inventory, and the market is strong. It is supported by the low price of liquid chlorine and the possible downstream replenishment [35] 3. Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - period spread**: Different varieties have different changes in inter - period spreads, such as Brent M1 - M2 spread increasing by 0.04 to 1.21, and PX 1 - 5 month spread increasing by 10 to 46 [36] - **Basis and warehouse receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipt data of each variety vary. For example, the asphalt basis is 212 with a change of - 24, and the warehouse receipt is 82300 [37] - **Inter - variety spread**: The inter - variety spreads also show different changes, such as the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread decreasing by 14 to - 268, and the 1 - month TA - EG spread increasing by 20 to 378 [38]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The market trading of macro - positive factors has ended, and the atmosphere of waiting and seeing prevails. Downstream factories have low purchasing sentiment, and most end - users make purchases based on rigid demand. Upstream petrochemical plants will enter the maintenance season, and the maintenance loss is on the rise, alleviating the market supply pressure and leading to a slight reduction in production inventory. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is gradually easing, international oil prices and propane prices are falling, the production profit of PDH - made PP has turned from loss to profit, and the cost - side support has weakened. The downstream demand remains in the seasonal off - season, with the bottom - up recovery of the agricultural film industry's start - up rate and the decline of the plastic weaving industry's start - up rate [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7245元/吨（-2），PP主力合约收盘价为7045元/吨（-12），LL华北现货为7180元/吨（-30），LL华东现货为7270元/吨（-20），PP华东现货为7120元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为 - 65元/吨（-28），LL华东基差为25元/吨（-18），PP华东基差为75元/吨（+12） [1] 2. Production Profit and Start - up Rate - PE开工率为79.5%（+3.0%），PP开工率为77.4%（-1.9%）；PE油制生产利润为166.2元/吨（-108.4），PP油制生产利润为 - 243.8元/吨（-108.4），PDH制PP生产利润为300.1元/吨（+0.0） [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为 - 109.6元/吨（-10.0），PP进口利润为 - 624.5元/吨（+86.2），PP出口利润为28.3美元/吨（+0.0） [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Start - up and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为12.1%（-0.3%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.4%（+0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率为42.2%（-1.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.3%（-0.1%） [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Upstream petrochemical plants will enter the maintenance season, and production inventory has a slight reduction [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In July 2025, domestic PVC plants are undergoing concentrated maintenance, with plans for plants in Shanxi Yushe, Yanhu Haina, and Ordos to shut down, expected to keep the capacity utilization rate on a downward trend. Although plants like Wanhua, Bohua, and Gansu Yaowang are scheduled to start production, future policies to push out backward production capacity may ease supply pressure. - It's the off - season for domestic downstream demand, and the Indian market demand is constrained by the rainy season. The anti - dumping policy may be implemented in early July, and the BIS certification in India has been extended to mid - December. - The impact of power restrictions in Inner Mongolia on calcium carbide has weakened, and some calcium carbide plants have resumed operation. The US has lifted restrictions on ethane exports to China, which may lead to a decrease in the cost of the ethylene - based method. - In the short term, the expectation of production capacity exit and real - estate support policies gives room for a premium on the main futures contract, but the futures price is suppressed by weak real - world demand and costs. Technically, the daily K - line should pay attention to the support around 4885 and the resistance around 5000 [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4963 yuan/ton, a increase of 69 yuan; the trading volume was 974,935 lots, an increase of 240,750 lots; the open interest was 967,373 lots, an increase of 32,878 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was 16,621 lots, an increase of 42,834 lots [3]. Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4970 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4792.31 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.77 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4945 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4841.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.5 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 660 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 750 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 173 yuan/ton, a decrease of 49 yuan [3]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2631.67 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it was 2388 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of VCM CFR Far East was 524 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mid - price of VCM CFR Southeast Asia was 564 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of EDC CFR Far East was 184 US dollars/ton, an increase of 8 US dollars; the mid - price of EDC CFR Southeast Asia was 188 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars [3]. Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 77.44%, a decrease of 0.65%; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 80.8%, a decrease of 0.17%; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 68.54%, a decrease of 1.92%. The total social inventory of PVC was 37.31 million tons, an increase of 1.14 million tons; the inventory in East China was 33.03 million tons, an increase of 1.1 million tons; the inventory in South China was 4.28 million tons, an increase of 0.04 million tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index was 93.72, a decrease of 0.14. The cumulative value of newly started housing area was 231.8361 million square meters, an increase of 53.4777 million square meters; the cumulative value of real - estate construction area was 6.2501954 billion square meters, an increase of 47.0449 million square meters; the cumulative value of real - estate development investment was 1915.481 billion yuan, an increase of 428.168 billion yuan [3]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 13.71%, an increase of 0.77%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 16.63%, an increase of 0.36%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and at - the - money call options of PVC was 19.17%, an increase of 0.65% [3]. Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission estimates that China's GDP in 2025 will be around 140 trillion yuan. - According to Longzhong Information, on July 9, the cash - remittance price of PVCSG5 in East China warehouses increased by 20 - 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, ranging from 4760 - 4860 yuan/ton. - From June 28 to July 4, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 77.44%, a decrease of 0.65% from the previous period. V2509 rose 1.58% to close at 4963 yuan/ton. On the supply side, last week, affected by the shutdown and maintenance of plants such as Ningxia Yinglite and Inner Mongolia Sanlian, the PVC capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.65% to 77.44%. On the demand side, last week, the downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 0.1% to 42.88%, among which the operating rate of pipes increased by 0.94% to 39.5%, and the operating rate of profiles decreased by 0.25% to 34.75%. In terms of inventory, last week, the commercial inventory of PP decreased by 0.09% to 785,100 tons, at a neutral level compared with the same period in the past three years. - As of July 3, the new sample statistics of Longzhong's social inventory increased by 2.89% to 5.918 million tons compared with the previous period, a year - on - year decrease of 37.66% [3].