Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in China, highlighting a shift from negative to positive growth in June, driven by various economic factors and policy measures [1][2]. Group 1: CPI Trends - In June, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, ending a four-month streak of negative growth, with the core CPI reaching a new high in nearly 14 months [1]. - The decline in CPI earlier in the year was significantly influenced by food prices, which fell by 0.9%, and energy prices, which decreased by 3.2%, collectively pulling down the CPI by approximately 0.4 percentage points [2]. Group 2: Factors Supporting Price Recovery - Several factors are expected to support a moderate recovery in prices in the second half of the year: 1. The economy is maintaining a stable and positive trend, with continued expansion in total demand, providing a macroeconomic foundation for price stability [3]. 2. Policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are expected to effectively stimulate consumption and support a rebound in consumer prices [3]. 3. Regulatory measures to address low-price disorder in the market will help improve market order and environment [4]. 4. The holiday effect is anticipated to promote stability or an increase in service-related prices [4]. 5. Technical factors indicate that the downward pressure from tail effects on both CPI and PPI will diminish in the second half of the year [4].

Group 1 - The overall price level is still adjusting due to the pressure from traditional growth drivers, despite the emergence of new growth drivers [1][3] - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year, ending four consecutive months of negative growth, while the core CPI reached a new high in nearly 14 months [1][3] - Factors supporting a moderate recovery in prices in the second half of the year include stable economic performance, effective demand expansion policies, regulation of low-price competition, holiday effects, and diminishing tail effects [1][4] Group 2 - The rise in CPI in June was influenced by the recovery of industrial consumer goods prices supported by "two new" policies, as well as supply disruptions in vegetables and certain seafood products due to weather conditions [3] - In the first half of the year, food prices fell by 0.9% and energy prices decreased by 3.2%, collectively dragging down the CPI by approximately 0.4 percentage points [3] - The current low price levels are characterized by structural and temporary factors, linked to both domestic and international macroeconomic changes [3][4] Group 3 - The expectation for price trends in the second half of the year is a low and moderate recovery, supported by several factors including stable economic growth and expanding overall demand [4] - Policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are expected to effectively stimulate consumption and support price recovery in consumer goods [4] - Recent self-regulatory actions by industry associations in sectors like photovoltaics, cement, and automobiles are anticipated to positively impact pricing in those areas [4]

Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI for June is at 49.7%, indicating a slight expansion in the manufacturing sector, with 11 out of 21 surveyed industries in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 from the previous month [2][3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.5%, showing continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [4][6] - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.7%, reflecting an overall acceleration in production and business activities [6] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI increased to 49.7%, with production and new orders indices at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, indicating improved production activities and market demand [2][3] - The purchasing volume index rose to 50.2%, up by 2.6 percentage points, suggesting enhanced procurement willingness among enterprises [2] - Price indices for major raw materials and factory prices improved, with indices at 48.4% and 46.2%, respectively, influenced by rising international oil prices [2] Key Industries - Key industries such as equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods continue to expand, with PMIs at 51.4%, 50.9%, and 50.4%, respectively [3] - The construction sector shows a significant recovery, with the business activity index at 52.8%, indicating robust infrastructure project progress [4][5] Market Expectations - The service sector's business activity expectation index is at 56.0%, indicating optimism among service enterprises regarding future development [5] - The construction industry's business activity expectation index rose to 53.9%, reflecting increased confidence among construction firms [5] Overall Economic Outlook - The overall economic activity is expected to improve as policy effects continue to manifest, with investment and consumption-related demands likely to be released [7]

Group 1 - The manufacturing PMI for June is reported at 49.7%, indicating a slight improvement from the previous value of 49.5%, suggesting a continued recovery in manufacturing activity [1] - The construction business activity index rose to 52.8% from 51%, while the services business activity index decreased to 50.1%, down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The production index and new orders index in manufacturing are both in the expansion zone, with marginal increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points to 51% and 50.2%, respectively [2] Group 2 - The internal demand index increased by 0.4 percentage points to 50.6%, outpacing the new export orders index, which rose by 0.2 percentage points to 47.7% [2] - High-frequency indicators show that the year-on-year growth rate of foreign trade cargo volume narrowed from -3.8% to -3.5%, indicating a continued weakening in export strength [2] - The PMI data indicates a divergence in performance among enterprises, with large and medium-sized enterprises seeing increases in PMI, while small enterprises experienced a decline to 47.3%, the lowest since September 2024 [3] Group 3 - The manufacturing sector faces downward pressure due to a potential weakening in export chain production as the equipment renewal cycle declines [3] - Recent policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, including a 500 billion yuan service consumption relending initiative, are expected to support service consumption and infrastructure investment [3] - The PMI improvements in June were more pronounced in industries such as petroleum processing, pharmaceutical manufacturing, and chemical manufacturing, while sectors like electrical machinery and textiles saw significant declines [3]

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人| 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 事件： 6月30日，国家统计局公布6月PMI指数，制造业PMI为49.7%、前值49.5%；非制造业PMI为 50.5%、前值50.3%。 却下行至2023年来最低水平（52%）。展望后续，设备更新周期逐步退坡，出口链生产走弱，制造业景 气面临较大下行压力。但近期扩内需政策再加码，5000亿服务消费再贷款、准财政工具（政策性开发性 金融工具）已对服务业投资进行部署，服务消费、基建投资或加快修复，有望对企业和居民预期形成支 撑。 常规跟踪：制造业、非制造业景气均有改善。 制造业：制造业：制造业PMI有所回升，生产、新订单指数延续改善。 6月，制造业PMI边际上行0.2pct 至49.7%。生产、新订单指数边际分别上行0.3、0.3pct至51%、50.2%。 核心观点：制造业景气回升，但企业预期降至低位；政策加码下，需关注微观预期的变化。 6月制造业PMI表现好于市场预期，结构上依然是生产指数恢复更好。 6月制造业PMI延续回升，边际上 行0.2pct至49.7%，好于市场预期（WIND，49.3%）。主要分项中，生产、新订单指数 ...

Group 1 - In June, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China was 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight recovery in the manufacturing sector [1][2] - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index rose to 50.5%, also up by 0.2 percentage points, reflecting stable expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [1][2] - The Composite PMI Output Index increased to 50.7%, marking a rise of 0.3 percentage points, suggesting overall economic improvement [1][2] Group 2 - The PMI for large enterprises was 51.2%, up by 0.5 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises saw a PMI of 48.6%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points; however, small enterprises experienced a decline to 47.3%, down by 2 percentage points [3] - Various sub-indices showed positive changes, with production, new orders, and export orders indices rising between 0.2 to 2.6 percentage points, indicating a general recovery across different industries [4] - The logistics and procurement analyst noted that the slight PMI increase reflects the effectiveness of recent policies aimed at boosting demand, although the overall PMI remains below the growth threshold [4][5] Group 3 - The Non-Manufacturing PMI has consistently remained above 50% this year, with a new orders index of 46.6%, which has increased by 0.5 percentage points, indicating a narrowing decline in demand [6][8] - In the construction sector, the Business Activity Index rose to over 52%, reflecting increased investment-related activities, supported by expanded special bond allocations [7] - The financial services sector also showed growth, with both the Business Activity Index and new orders index exceeding 60%, indicating heightened activity as the quarter ends [7] Group 4 - Overall, the average Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index for the second quarter was 50.4%, similar to the first quarter, suggesting stable expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [8] - As policy benefits gradually materialize, investment and consumption-related demand are expected to continue to improve, enhancing the internal driving force of economic operations [8]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI index in June shows a slight recovery, indicating the effectiveness of a series of incremental policies, despite ongoing challenges in demand and production activities [1][4][11]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for June is reported at 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, marking two consecutive months of improvement [1]. - The new orders index has returned to the expansion zone at 50.2%, increasing by 0.4 percentage points after two months below 50% [4]. - The production index stands at 51%, reflecting stable expansion in production activities, with a 0.3 percentage point increase from last month [5]. - The procurement volume index has also returned to the expansion zone at 50.2%, up 2.6 percentage points [5]. - Large enterprises show a PMI of 51.2%, indicating accelerated expansion, while medium and small enterprises remain below the critical point at 48.6% and 47.3%, respectively [7]. Price Trends - In June, both the purchasing price index and the factory price index have stabilized, with the purchasing price index at 48.4% and the factory price index at 46.2%, both up 1.5 percentage points from the previous month [6]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.5%, reflecting continued expansion, with a 0.2 percentage point increase [11]. - The construction industry shows a business activity index of 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, indicating a recovery in construction activities [12]. Future Outlook - The manufacturing sector is expected to maintain a steady growth trend in the second half of the year, supported by ongoing policy measures aimed at boosting domestic demand and stabilizing external trade [8].

Core Viewpoint - The gradual recovery of industrial product prices and the implementation of domestic demand expansion policies are expected to maintain a positive trend in domestic demand, leading to a slight recovery in the profit growth of large-scale industrial enterprises in the second half of the year, influenced by a low base from the previous year [1][3]. Group 1: Industrial Profit Trends - In the first five months, the total profit of large-scale industrial enterprises reached 27,204.3 billion yuan, an increase of 6,034.1 billion yuan compared to the first four months, but a year-on-year decline of 1.1% [1]. - The profit of large-scale industrial enterprises in May alone saw a year-on-year decline of 9.1% [1]. - Despite the decline in profit, the gross profit and revenue of industrial enterprises continued to grow, with gross profit increasing by 1.1% year-on-year, contributing to a 3 percentage point increase in overall profit [1]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing sector showed strong performance, with profits increasing by 7.2% year-on-year, contributing 2.4 percentage points to the overall profit of large-scale industrial enterprises [2]. - Among the eight industries in equipment manufacturing, seven reported profit growth, with significant increases in the electronics, electrical machinery, and general equipment sectors, achieving year-on-year growth rates of 11.9%, 11.6%, and 10.6% respectively [2]. - The aerospace, aviation, and maritime industries experienced rapid growth, with profits increasing by 56.0% year-on-year, and the shipbuilding and related equipment manufacturing sector saw an impressive profit growth of 85% [2]. Group 3: Policy Impact and Future Outlook - The implementation of "two new" policies has effectively stimulated domestic demand, leading to positive profit performance in related industries [3]. - The general and specialized equipment sectors benefited from large-scale equipment renewal policies, with profits increasing by 10.6% and 7.1% year-on-year, respectively, contributing 0.6 percentage points to the overall profit growth [3]. - The outlook for the next phase suggests that with ongoing recovery in market conditions and industrial product prices, along with strengthened domestic demand policies, the profit growth of large-scale industrial enterprises may show slight recovery in the second half of the year [3].

2025.06. 26 本文字数：2261，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 祝嫣然 备受市场关注的"国补"资金，有了新进展。 国家发改委政策研究室副主任李超26日在发布会上表示，将在7月下达今年第三批消费品以旧换新资 金。 李超表示，将更加注重"时序性"和"均衡性"的原则，分领域制定落实到每月、每周的"国补"资金使用 计划，保障消费品以旧换新政策全年有序实施。 面对外部环境的不确定性增加，下半年稳增长政策仍需加力，消费品以旧换新等扩内需政策措施有望 继续优化升级。李超强调，当前外部环境的复杂性、严峻性、不确定性有所增加，全球经贸稳定增长 面临挑战，这些都会影响经济平稳运行。随着存量政策加快落地见效，新的储备政策陆续出台实施， 我们有信心、有能力把外部冲击的不确定性和不利影响降到最低，推动经济持续健康发展。 确保"两新"全年有序实施 今年以来，各地持续加力扩围"两新"政策，有力推动消费潜力加速释放。 从最新经济数据来看，5月份社会消费品零售总额同比增长6.4%，增速是2024年以来最高水平，消 费成为拉动经济增长的重要引擎。其中，消费品以旧换新政策发挥了重要作用。 李超介绍，消费品以旧换新方面，超长期特 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is intensifying policies to boost domestic consumption, particularly through the "old-for-new" program for consumer goods, in response to increasing external uncertainties and economic challenges [2][5]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to issue the third batch of "old-for-new" funds in July, emphasizing a more timely and balanced approach to fund allocation [2][4]. - The total support for the "old-for-new" program includes 300 billion yuan from special long-term bonds, with 162 billion yuan already distributed in the first two batches [3][4]. - The program has significantly contributed to the retail sector, with a reported 6.4% year-on-year growth in social retail sales in May, marking the highest growth rate in 2024 [3]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The "old-for-new" policy has led to a surge in sales of related products, exceeding 1.4 trillion yuan this year, with notable growth in the county-level markets [3][7]. - From May 1 to June 21, county-level home appliance sales increased by 47%, and "old-for-new" sales rose by 54%, indicating a new peak in sales [3]. - The focus on upgrading consumption patterns is evident, with sales of high-end appliances increasing by 73% in the first five months of the year [3][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The government aims to further enhance the effectiveness of the "old-for-new" policy by expanding the categories of supported products and improving the quality of goods [7][8]. - There is a strong emphasis on collaboration between fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies to ensure timely fund allocation and stimulate consumer spending [8]. - The focus will also be on supporting low-income groups and promoting service-oriented consumption, particularly in sectors like education and healthcare [7][8].