Group 1 - The market focus has shifted towards economic data and Federal Reserve policies after the U.S. government resumed favorable digestion, with hawkish comments from Fed officials reducing the likelihood of a rate cut in December to below 50% [1] - Asian investors are awaiting the release of key economic indicators from China, including housing prices, retail sales, and unemployment rate data [1] - Major Asian stock markets are under pressure, with the Nikkei 225 index opening down 1.3% and quickly expanding its losses to 2%, led by a significant drop of 9% in SoftBank Group's stock [1] Group 2 - The South Korean Seoul Composite Index opened with a notable decline of 2.6%, indicating a significant increase in market risk aversion [3] - U.S. stock futures showed a slight recovery, with the S&P 500 index futures rebounding by 0.16% [3] Group 3 - In the foreign exchange market, the South Korean won experienced significant volatility, prompting the finance minister to express concerns about increasing uncertainty and readiness to take measures to stabilize the currency market [6] - The strong intervention signals from the South Korean government led to a rapid V-shaped recovery in the won's exchange rate against the U.S. dollar, with an intraday increase of nearly 1% [6] - Following a sharp decline, cryptocurrencies showed signs of recovery during the Asian trading session, with Bitcoin prices potentially testing $100,000 [6]

Group 1: Oil Market Insights - Oil prices are currently experiencing a tug-of-war between supply and demand, with a short-term rebound seen as a temporary relief rather than a reversal [3] - The International Energy Agency has indicated a supply surplus for oil next year, while U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 6.4 million barrels, the largest rise since July [3] - The market is reacting to increased sanctions on Russian oil companies and a decline in refined oil inventories, suggesting that demand remains resilient [3] Group 2: Copper Market Dynamics - Copper prices have stabilized after four consecutive days of increases, driven by the end of the U.S. government shutdown, which had previously hindered the release of key economic data [3] - Copper is viewed as an "industrial barometer," closely tied to infrastructure and manufacturing, with domestic growth initiatives supporting demand [3] Group 3: Gold Market Trends - The recent decline in gold prices is primarily attributed to changing expectations regarding interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with the probability of a December rate cut now at 50% [4] - Gold's appeal diminishes when interest rates do not decrease or rise, but its long-term value is still linked to inflation and global risk sentiment [4] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Companies in the energy sector should focus on those with reasonable valuations and stable cash flows, particularly in oil and gas extraction and refining [5] - For copper-related investments, attention should be given to firms tied to domestic infrastructure and new energy projects, as demand is expected to remain strong [5] - In the gold sector, a wait-and-see approach is recommended until interest rate expectations become clearer or global risk sentiment increases [5]

美联储哈玛克：当前美联储的政策"几乎不算限制"。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold and silver are both rated ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] Core View of the Report - Overnight, precious metals continued their strong rebound, with silver showing elasticity. The end of the US government shutdown and market expectations of future interest rate cuts have led to a short - term shift to interest - rate cut trading, making commodities generally stronger. However, whether precious metals can regain their upward momentum remains to be confirmed, and international gold and silver should pay attention to the resistance at previous high positions [1] Other Key Points - After Trump signs the temporary appropriation bill, multiple federal departments such as the Department of Health and Human Services, the Department of the Interior, the Department of Housing and Urban Development, and the Department of Justice have notified employees to return to work on the 13th. But it's uncertain when furloughed employees will receive back pay and if salary payments can resume quickly [2] - Four voting local Fed presidents are not enthusiastic about another interest rate cut in December. Boston Fed President Collins believes the Fed will likely keep interest rates at the current level for some time, and before cutting rates, it's necessary to ensure inflation can sustainably return to 2% [2] - White House official Hassett hopes the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points but expects only a 25 - basis - point cut, and is willing to accept the position of Fed Chairman if needed [2] - The US Supreme Court will hold an oral argument on Trump's request to fire Fed Governor Cook on January 21 next year [2]

随着美国政府停摆的正式结束，市场风险情绪明显回暖，美股期货上涨，黄金价格稳居三周高位附近。 特朗普总统签署临时拨款法案，使政府恢复正常运作，但由于医疗补贴问题仍悬而未决，明年初再次停 摆的隐忧依旧存在。投资者正重新评估美国经济走势与美联储政策节奏，当前市场预计12月降息25个基 点的概率维持在约60%。不过，经济数据延迟公布与财政前景的不确定性仍可能为市场带来波动。 周四亚洲及欧洲交易时段，随着美国政府重新开放，投资者信心回升。道琼斯指数期货上涨约0.24%， 报48450点；标普500与纳指期货分别上扬0.23%与0.36%。现货黄金连续第四日收涨，盘中刷新三周高 位。尽管美元出现轻微反弹，但市场预期美国经济增长放缓，将继续支撑贵金属价格。 为期43天的政府停摆终于告一段落。参议院批准的拨款法案已由特朗普总统签署，联邦机构恢复运作。 然而，法案未涵盖《平价医疗法案》补贴的延期安排，意味着2026年1月底前后若财政分歧重现，停摆 风险或再次升温。经济方面，分析认为停摆可能使季度GDP增长率下降约1.5至2个百分点。大华银行将 2025年GDP增速预期下调至1.5%，预计短期复苏或放缓。CBO也警告称，美国第四 ...

鲍威尔要求美联储监察长办公室启动独立审查。在去年公布的报告中，监管机构指出博斯蒂克违反美联储政策的方式"造成了利用机密信息操作的观 感"，尽管调查未发现其确实实施该行为的证据。 SHMET 网讯：亚特兰大联储主席拉斐尔·博斯蒂克（Raphael Bostic）周三宣布，他将在当前五年任期于明年2月底届满时退休，此举避免了围绕其连任 可能引发的内部争议。 三年前，博斯蒂克因披露个人财务交易未严格遵守高级官员监管规定而受到审查。当时他仍获得了理事会的支持。另有两名联储主席于2021年因财务报 表问题接受审查后辞职。 现年59岁的博斯蒂克于2017年上任，成为地区联储银行历史上首位黑人主席。作为研究住房自有率和房地产金融的经济学家，他曾在奥巴马政府担任住 房政策官员，原本有资格继续担任六年地区联储主席直至65岁强制退休年龄。 博斯蒂克选择此时退休的时机颇为微妙——美联储位于华盛顿的七人理事会必须同意全系统12家地区联储主席从明年3月1日起开启新的五年任期。 在2022年长达七页的纠错信中，博斯蒂克解释其报告疏漏源于对需披露交易范围的困惑。这些违规行为被发现不久后，美联储主席鲍威尔刚刚实施了个 人交易规则的全面改革。 ...

白宫经济顾问哈塞特：美联储政策一直与党派之争相关。 来源：滚动播报 ...

美国亚特兰大联储主席Raphael Bostic：美联储在让通胀重返目标2%方面恪守承诺。 ...

技术面从黄金一小时图来看昨日黄金亚盘冲高测压4150受阻回修，符合预期判断，晚间行情出现回调， 回撤4100附近也迎合技术需要，但是随后行情很快回弹是比较意外的，这可能会使得短线行情走居高震 荡路线，局限了下半周的调整的预期，同时也局限了短线上方再走高的动能。根据小时图结构，日内黄 金暂看居高震荡，下方继续关注4110-00一带测试，上方关注4150-55一带短压，暂时看此区间震荡。若 日内行情有下破区间动作，那么下方着重关注4080附近争夺，此位也是20日线强支撑位，若上破区间则 再看4180附近压力，此位也是前期下跌调整行情的破位口。 劳动力市场指标走弱。高盛估计，美国10月非农就业岗位减少约5万个，将为2020年以来最大降幅。就 业数据公司ADP估计，在截至10月25日的四周内，私营部门每周减少11250个工作岗位。 美联储内部政策分歧是短期主要压力源。克利夫兰联储主席强调通胀仍处高位，认为进一步降息为时过 早；而美联储理事米兰周二继续放鸽，公开表示"鉴于劳动力市场疲软和通胀率下降，12月份降息50个 基点可能是合适的"。 此外，美国参议院推进临时拨款法案缓解政府关门风险，最快将于周三进行最终表决，随后 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes various commodities and financial markets, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives, providing insights into their price trends, supply - demand dynamics, and investment suggestions based on current market conditions and macro - economic factors [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, but there is still downside potential for oil prices this year. Short - term support exists due to geopolitical factors, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the rebound [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil supply tends to be loose, while low - sulfur fuel oil gets short - term support, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils is expected to widen further [22] - **Asphalt**: The poor shipment volume falsifies the construction rush demand expectation, and the market is bearish with significant pressure on prices [23] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: LPG shows a narrow - range oscillation and is relatively strong among oil futures. The decrease in supply and the increase in demand support the LPG market [24] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals fluctuated with large intraday swings. They lack a strong driving force and may continue to consolidate. Attention should be paid to the $4150/ounce resistance level for international gold prices [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight, Shanghai copper showed a position - reducing oscillation. The upward momentum of the copper market is declining, and short - term trading strategies such as buying put options are recommended [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated slightly stronger. Attention should be paid to the resistance around the November 2024 high of 21,800 yuan [5] - **Alumina**: Supply is in excess, and it is expected to operate weakly with limited rebound space [6] - **Zinc**: The zinc ingot export window is open. Low inventory supports the external market, and Shanghai zinc is expected to follow the external market to make up for the increase [8] - **Lead**: The external market rebounds strongly, and the domestic market is supported by rigid demand and is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,300 - 17,600 yuan [9] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The nickel market is affected by over - supply, and the price is expected to be weak [10] - **Tin**: Affected by news from Indonesia, the short - term upward momentum is strong, and short - selling above 290,000 yuan is recommended [11] - **Carbonate Lithium**: It shows a slight correction and is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term due to improved demand and reduced inventory [12] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price drops significantly, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate, with attention paid to the support at the lower edge of the range [13] - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price declines slightly, and the short - term is expected to oscillate after the center of gravity rises [14] Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: The supply is relatively stable, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate [16] - **Coke**: The downstream acceptance of the fourth - round price increase is poor, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [17] - **Coking Coal**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [18] - **Manganese Silicon**: The price oscillates weakly, with strong support at the bottom [19] - **Silicon Iron**: The price oscillates weakly, and it is judged to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [20] Chemicals - **Benzene and Its Derivatives**: Benzene is weak, styrene maintains a tight supply - demand balance but is under price pressure, and polypropylene, plastic, and propylene have weak supply - demand support [27][28][29] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC is expected to run at a low level due to high supply and low demand, while caustic soda runs weakly [30] - **PX and PTA**: They oscillate, with a bearish outlook in the short - to - medium term and an expected inventory build - up for PTA [31] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply growth pressure is large, and a bearish view is maintained [32] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber has a good spot pattern but weakening demand, while bottle - chip demand fades with processing margin pressure [33] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oilseeds** - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The supply of soybeans is expected to be sufficient in the fourth quarter, and there may be inventory reduction in the first quarter of next year. Attention should be paid to the USDA report [37] - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: Vegetable oil boosts the prices of soybean oil and palm oil. Palm oil is in a high - inventory situation, and its price is oscillating [38] - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: The shortage of rapeseed in coastal areas supports rapeseed oil prices. Short - term observation is recommended [39] - **Corn**: The futures price oscillates at a high level, and the supply is expected to be loose, with limited rebound height [41] - **Livestock and Poultry Products** - **Pigs**: The spot price drops slightly, and the futures price may rebound seasonally, with attention paid to the supply release rhythm [42] - **Eggs**: The far - month futures price rises, and the near - month price is weak. Observation is recommended [43] - **Cotton and Sugar** - **Cotton**: The price oscillates, with new - cotton cost providing support and demand being average [44] - **Sugar**: The international market supply is sufficient, and the domestic market focuses on the new - season output estimate [45] - **Fruits and Others** - **Apples**: The price oscillates widely, and a bearish operation idea is maintained due to inventory pressure [46] - **Timber**: The price runs weakly, with low inventory providing support [47] - **Paper Pulp**: The price rises, and the short - term upward space may be limited. Long positions should be held cautiously [48] Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index**: A - shares are weakly sorted, and futures contracts decline. Attention should be paid to the stability of the RMB exchange rate and domestic policy signals. A mid - term focus on technology and advanced manufacturing is recommended [49] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures oscillate upward, and the steepening of the yield curve is expected to end [50] Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The reduction of shipping prices by shipping companies suppresses market sentiment. The downward space of the December contract is limited, and attention should be paid to cargo volume improvement and the adjustment of the 02 - contract delivery rules [21]