海外市场点评 12 月美国 CPI：通胀放缓的再确认？ glmszqdatemark [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：林彦 研究助理：武朔 执业证书：S0590525110006 执业证书：S0590525110007 执业证书：S0590125110064 邮箱：taochuan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：linyan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：wushuo@glms.com.cn 具体来看，12 月通胀数据也呈现明显的结构特征： 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 2026 年 01 月 14 日 作为 2025 年收官的最后一份通胀数据，12 月美国 CPI 的表现可谓是给市场吃 下了一颗"定心丸"。不同于 11 月数据受政府停摆、数据估算方法、假日促销等 多重因素干扰，12 月 CPI 的统计过程逐步回归常态，数据的真实性和干净度有所 提升，因此通胀环比增速的回升也在意料之中。但整体回升幅度依然不高，尤其 是核心 CPI 环比增速仅 0.2%，低于预期的 0.3%，此外，CPI 和核心 CPI 同比增 速均持平前值，并未有 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold and silver prices reached new all - time highs today due to factors such as the US inflation data being in line with expectations, the escalation of the US - Iran situation driving up safe - haven demand, and the planned launch of a 100 - ounce silver futures contract by CME [3][7]. - The platinum and palladium markets also showed certain trends. The slowdown of US core inflation was beneficial for precious metals pricing, and geopolitical events and policy uncertainties affected the market [15]. - From the 2026 supply - demand balance sheet, platinum is in a tight - balance pattern and has stronger upward momentum compared to palladium, which is shifting from a supply - demand deficit to a surplus [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Gold and Silver Market - London gold hit a new all - time high of $4639.723 per ounce, and London silver reached $91.551 per ounce. The Shanghai gold main contract reached a new high of 1041 yuan per gram and closed at 1040.62 yuan, up 1.07%, with the weighted daily position increasing by 11996 lots to 348,500 lots. The Shanghai silver main contract reached a new high of 22,995 yuan per kilogram and closed at 22,763 yuan, up 8.03%, with the weighted daily position increasing by 18213 lots to 736,500 lots [3]. 3.1.2 Platinum and Palladium Market - London platinum and palladium both rose and then fell. As of 3 pm, London platinum was trading at $2390.90, and London palladium was at $1860.56. The platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange opened higher and fluctuated. The platinum main contract PT2606 closed up 3.67% at 630.65 yuan per gram, with the weighted daily position increasing by 419 lots to 38859 lots, and the settled funds reaching 8.823 billion yuan (an inflow of 1.847 billion yuan). The palladium main contract PD2606 closed up 1.60% at 495.50 yuan per gram, with the weighted daily position decreasing by 182 lots to 15022 lots, and the settled funds reaching 2.682 billion yuan (an inflow of 476 million yuan) [11][13]. 3.2 Important Information 3.2.1 US Macroeconomic Data - The US December un - adjusted CPI annual rate was 2.7%, in line with expectations; the un - adjusted core CPI annual rate was 2.6%, lower than the expected 2.7%; the seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate was 0.3%, in line with expectations; and the seasonally adjusted core CPI monthly rate was 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3% [4]. 3.2.2 Geopolitical Situation - The EU is discussing additional sanctions against Iran. Trump cancelled all meetings with Iranian officials, and the US National Security Team will formulate a strategy against Iran [4]. 3.2.3 Fed Views - Fed's Musalem said there are few reasons for further policy easing in the short term and still believes inflation risks will be more persistent than expected [4]. 3.2.4 Fed Observation - The probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in January is 2.8%, and the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 97.2%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 26.8%, and the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 72.5%. The probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in April has risen slightly from 38% to 42% [4]. 3.2.5 Other Information - On the 13th, CME announced plans to launch a 100 - ounce silver futures contract on February 9, 2026, pending regulatory approval [6]. 3.3 Logic Analysis 3.3.1 Gold and Silver - US inflation data was in line with expectations, and the US - Iran situation and previous geopolitical events increased the safe - haven demand. The planned launch of a mini - silver contract by CME may bring more liquidity to the market, driving up gold and silver prices. The silver market shows high - level and high - volatility characteristics. Short - term attention should be paid to the US court's ruling on tariff policies [7]. 3.3.2 Platinum and Palladium - The slowdown of core inflation in the US is beneficial for precious metals pricing. Geopolitical events and policy uncertainties such as the "232 investigation" and "double - anti" investigations affect the market. From the supply - demand balance sheet, platinum has stronger upward momentum [15][16][18]. 3.4 Trading Strategies 3.4.1 Gold and Silver - Unilateral: Hold long positions in Shanghai gold based on the previous all - time high at the end of December, and hold long positions in Shanghai silver based on the support near the previous all - time high on the 12th of this month. Arbitrage and options: Wait and see [8][9][10]. 3.4.2 Platinum and Palladium - Unilateral: Generally, it is recommended to go long on platinum on dips. For palladium, it is recommended to go long cautiously on dips before the "232 investigation" results are announced, but pay attention to risks. Arbitrage and options: Wait and see [19][20][21]. 3.5 Data Reference - Multiple charts show the relationships between the US dollar index, real yields, and precious metal prices, as well as the relationships between domestic and foreign futures prices, futures - spot prices, and other data for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium [24][31][73].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December remained stable at 2.7% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, grew by 2.6%, slightly below the forecast of 2.7% [1] - Housing costs, which are a key factor in inflation persistence, increased by 0.4% in December, contributing significantly to the monthly rise, with this category accounting for over one-third of the CPI and showing a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [1] - The report indicates ongoing inflationary pressures, with food prices rising by 0.7% in December, although egg prices plummeted by 8.2%, marking a nearly 21% decline compared to the previous year [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley's global macro forum report suggests that the urgency for the Federal Reserve to stabilize the job market has decreased due to recent improvements in economic momentum and a decline in unemployment rates [1] - Future policy actions by the Federal Reserve will depend on two key signals: the comprehensive impact of tariff adjustments by the Trump administration on prices and whether inflation data shows a clear downward trend [1] - The report maintains the forecast for the Federal Reserve's final interest rate target range at 3.0%-3.25%, indicating that the interest rate market needs to reprice overly optimistic expectations for rate cuts [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical risks and concerns over the Fed's independence have led to a resurgence in precious metals, but excessive bullishness on gold is not recommended [1]. - Geopolitical risks have driven up crude oil prices, and in the short - term, the price may remain strong with emotional premiums [1]. - Steel prices may rise first and then fall this week, showing a range - bound pattern [3]. - The fundamentals of coking coal are expected to improve, and there is still upward momentum in both futures and spot prices [3]. - The supply - demand situation of manganese silicon remains loose, and the price is expected to gradually decline to the cost valuation in the medium term [4]. - The short - term supply - demand game in the pig market continues, with prices fluctuating slightly in the range of 11700 - 11900 and the price center shifting upward [4]. - Palm oil is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with inventory accumulation suppressing the upside but strong support at the bottom [5]. - The upside of soybean meal prices is restricted, and the 05 contract is expected to continue to adjust in the short term [5]. - The bond market is under pressure due to tightening funds, and treasury bonds will show more volatility [6]. - Silver prices have risen due to risk - aversion and expectations of monetary easing, but the upward momentum needs attention [6]. - Methanol is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with high - level inventory increase and expected decline in imports [7]. - Soda ash is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with high - level inventory increase and new production capacity pressure [8]. - PVC prices are expected to remain range - bound in the short term, with sufficient supply, weak domestic demand, and rising inventory [9]. - Copper prices are expected to remain in a high - level range - bound pattern, supported by long - term expectations but lacking short - term demand drive [10]. - PTA will transit in a fluctuating manner, with a supply increase and weakening demand as the holiday approaches [11]. - Natural rubber will be treated with a wide - range fluctuation, with rising raw material prices, inventory accumulation, and flexible production control in the demand side [12]. Summary by Product Precious Metals - **Gold**: Geopolitical tensions have eased slightly, but risk - aversion factors still exist. The Fed's independence has raised market concerns, leading to a resurgence in precious metals. However, excessive bullishness on gold is not recommended. Attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances and the interaction between gold and silver [1]. - **Silver**: The ongoing investigation of Fed Chairman Powell has affected market expectations. Risk - aversion and expectations of monetary easing have led to a rise in silver prices, but the upward momentum needs attention [6]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: API data shows an increase in US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories. EIA predicts a decline in US crude oil production in the forecast period. Geopolitical risks have driven up prices, and in the short - term, the price may remain strong with emotional premiums [1]. Metals - **Steel**: On January 13, domestic steel markets showed mixed trends. High costs support steel prices, but weakening downstream demand may lead to a decline in prices later this week, with a range - bound pattern [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The capacity utilization rate of coking enterprises has increased, and inventory has decreased. The supply pressure is expected to ease, and the demand is expected to improve, leading to upward momentum in prices [3]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The开工率 of silicon - manganese enterprises has decreased slightly, and the supply - demand situation remains loose. The price is expected to decline to the cost valuation in the medium term [4]. - **Copper**: The US CPI growth rate has reached the lowest level since July 2025, and market expectations of Fed rate cuts in the second quarter have increased, which may boost copper prices in the short term. The market is in a game between "strong expectations" and "weak reality", and copper prices are expected to remain in a high - level range - bound pattern [10]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Indonesia will maintain the biodiesel policy at the B40 level. The domestic import profit has been significantly repaired, and the number of domestic purchases has increased. Palm oil is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: The downstream feed enterprises have high inventory levels, and the supply of soybeans and soybean meal in oil mills is still abundant, restricting the upside of prices. The 05 contract is expected to continue to adjust in the short term [5]. - **Pig**: The national pig prices showed mixed trends. The supply - demand game will continue in the short term, with prices fluctuating slightly in the range of 11700 - 11900 and the price center shifting upward [4]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand has declined slightly, and inventory has continued to accumulate. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of heavy - quality soda ash has declined slightly, production has increased, and inventory has risen significantly. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [8]. - **PVC**: The price has increased slightly, production is expected to increase slowly, and inventory has risen. The market is expected to remain range - bound in the short term [9]. - **PTA**: The production of PTA has increased year - on - year, and the supply is expected to increase in January. The demand is expected to weaken as the holiday approaches, and the market will transit in a fluctuating manner [11]. - **Natural Rubber**: The raw material prices in Southeast Asia have stopped falling and rebounded, and domestic inventory has accumulated. The demand side is in a state of flexible production control, and the market will show a wide - range fluctuation [12]. Bonds - **Short - term Treasury Bonds**: Shibor short - term varieties have risen, indicating tightening funds. The bond market is under pressure, and treasury bonds will show more volatility [6].

Group 1 - The core support for the Canadian dollar comes from the continuous rise in oil prices, driven by supply concerns related to the situation in Iran, which has led to a weakening of the USD/CAD pair for two consecutive days [1] - The WTI crude oil price has been rising for several consecutive trading days, reflecting the sensitivity of the Canadian dollar to oil price fluctuations [1] - The geopolitical tension regarding Iran has intensified market expectations of potential supply disruptions, further amplifying oil price volatility [1] Group 2 - The downward space for the USD/CAD pair is constrained by multiple factors, including signs of stabilization in the USD after a slight decline [2] - Market focus is shifting towards the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, with expectations that stronger inflation data could undermine Fed easing expectations and provide short-term support for the USD [2] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve continue to affect market sentiment, with uncertainties surrounding recent judicial comments and upcoming Supreme Court rulings on tariff policies [2]

美元指数在窄幅区间内徘徊，市场情绪谨慎，等待更明确的政策线索。尽管美联储当前维持利率不变， 但经济表现偏强、通胀仍具黏性，再加上围绕美联储独立性的争议发酵，使得市场对降息的押注从年初 明显向后推延，政策路径的不确定性显著上升。 美联储政策基调偏鹰，内部分歧加剧 多家大型投行近期调整预测，将首次降息时间从3月延后至年中。机构普遍认为，美联储今年的降息次 数将少于此前预期，宽松周期的启动更可能是"慢起步"。 市场定价也同步收紧，对上半年降息的预期大幅降温，年中已成为多数交易员认可的启动窗口。 美联储独立性争议升温，加剧政策不确定性 鲍威尔近日就检方调查发表声明，称相关行动是试图影响美联储决策、削弱其独立性的"借口"。该事件 引发市场波动，美元指数一度从近期高点回落。政策中立性的不确定性，使投资者对未来利率路径的判 断更加谨慎。 在去年12月完成连续第三次降息后，美联储已进入观望模式。鲍威尔强调，只有在看到通胀持续下行的 更多证据后，才会考虑进一步宽松，暗示短期内更倾向于按兵不动。 值得注意的是，12月会议出现了多年来最多的反对票，委员们在经济前景、通胀风险以及政策节奏上的 分歧明显扩大，这也让市场对未来政策走向更 ...

黄金上周回升，重回4500的关口后。昨天再暴力狂飙，高开高走，一度大涨120美金，刷历史新高后， 再次回落重回4600关口调整。 下方跌破了此位置，继续看向4510的支撑。 黄金12月结束，以冲高回落收官后。到本月，又迎来回升，收复了所有的跌幅后。多头暴力冲顶，再刷 历史新高。多头归来，再破高，新高看向4700，不猜顶。当然了，下方再次大的调整，可看向4500的区 域。 昨天刷新高，刚碰到4630。 再遇阻回落，重回4600下方。 今天进入调整，触及4575的位置。 今天的走势 再次弹起，围绕4600调整。 当然了，上方再战4630的位置。 再次上破，看历史新高，不猜顶。 当然了，不破高，再次调整，或再探4575的位置。 对于现货黄金的投资，方向和趋势的判断尤其重要。更重要的是入场点和出场点的把握能力，说白了就 是准确率，这个是能够实现稳健获利的必要的前提条件。这个不是一两本书，或者一两年功夫实操就可 以锻炼出来的。而是需要长时间实操和结果和经验。 同时对于仓位风险的把控能力，做到足够的低的风险，实现最大化的盈利的机会，这个是每个投资者必 要的基础。最快的实现盈利的方式，就是跟随真正的高手，他怎么做，你怎么做 ...

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices have surged, breaking the historical $4600 per ounce mark, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and Federal Reserve policy fluctuations [1][3] - The price of gold has increased over 64% in the past year, marking its best annual performance since 1979, attributed to a low interest rate environment and heightened demand for safe-haven assets [3] - The criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has intensified concerns about the Fed's independence, contributing to the decline of the US dollar index by 0.23% to 98.90 [3][4] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the US response to protests in Iran and actions against Venezuela, have created a highly unstable global environment, further driving investment into gold [4] - The Federal Reserve's anticipated policy path, with expectations of two rate cuts later in the year, is expected to support gold demand [5] Technical Analysis - Gold prices reached a new high of $4630, indicating strong bullish momentum, although short-term market volatility may increase [6] - Traders are advised to monitor support levels around $4520 and $4500, with resistance near $4600 and $4630 [7] - Suggested trading strategies include light long positions near $4520 with a stop loss at $4510 and targets around $4550/$4590, as well as short positions near $4595 with a stop loss at $4603 and targets around $4560/$4530 [7]

美国国债收益率在亚洲交易时段小幅走高，市场焦点是美国12月CPI数据，该数据是美联储1月会议前 的一项关键输入数据。ADSS的Neal Keane在一份报告中称："虽然这是1月底美国联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC)会议前的最后一份CPI报告，但它不太可能改变美联储的政策。"货币市场已基本完全消化了本 月利率将维持不变的预期。这家阿联酋交易平台的全球销售交易主管称："不过，今天的CPI数据可能会 影响今年剩余时间的预期，市场目前的定价反映了2026年将再降息两次的预期。"根据Tradeweb的数 据，两年期美国国债收益率上升0.4个基点，至3.550%；10年期国债收益率上升0.8个基点，至4.194%。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the price of spot gold is experiencing a rebound, currently trading around $4592.80 per ounce, following a period of profit-taking after previous gains [1] - Strategists from State Street Global Advisors report that the probability of spot gold surpassing $5000 per ounce this year has exceeded 30%, driven by recent price momentum and geopolitical dynamics [1] - The demand for gold from central banks is expected to support physical demand, providing stability to the precious metals market [1] Group 2 - The daily chart shows that the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day SMAs, indicating strong bullish momentum [2] - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 70.17, suggesting that prices may pause or experience a slight pullback [2] - The 21-day SMA at $4417.93 provides immediate dynamic support, and as long as prices remain above this level, the upward trend is intact [2]