Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The finished products are expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, and the later focus is on macro policies and downstream demand [4] - The aluminum price is expected to run within a short - term range, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and downstream start - up [5] Summary by Related Catalogs 1.成材 - The production suspension of short - process steel mills in Yunnan and Guizhou regions during the Spring Festival is expected to affect the total output of construction steel by 741,000 tons, and the daily output affected by the suspension of some Anhui steel mills is about 16,200 tons [3][4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% week - on - week and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [4] - The finished products continued to decline in shock yesterday, with the price hitting a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, and the price support is not strong [4] 2. Aluminum - Last week, the aluminum price ran strongly within the range. The market is concerned about trade negotiation progress and US economic data. Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Russia, and the market is waiting for US consumer and producer price index data [3] - As of last Thursday, the national metallurgical - grade alumina's built - in total production capacity was 110.82 million tons/year, and the operating total production capacity was 88.57 million tons/year. The weekly alumina start - up rate decreased by 0.05 percentage points to 79.92%. Some enterprises in Shandong and Guangxi carried out maintenance [4] - Guinea requires that 50% of bauxite exports must be transported by ships flying the Guinean flag in the future. As of now in 2025, Guinea's bauxite exports have increased by 37% year - on - year [4] - As of the end of June, the inventory of alumina enterprises increased by 81,000 tons. Affected by factors such as the high - temperature off - season, high aluminum prices, insufficient profit margins, and weak downstream demand, the start - up rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.6% last week [4] - On July 14, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 501,000 tons, an increase of 35,000 tons compared with last Thursday and 23,000 tons compared with last Monday [4]

截至8点30分，国内黄金（99.95%）最新报价为778.04元/克，下跌0.05%。 国际黄金价格报3357.0美元/盎司，下跌0.06%。 走势展望 黄金价格受多种因素交织影响，短期波动或加剧。关税政策和地缘政治紧张带来的避险需求为金价提供 支撑，但美联储政策的不确定性又限制其上涨空间。技术面上，黄金呈现震荡偏强格局，有向上突破可 能。长期来看，各国央行持续购金为金价奠定坚实基础，高盛等机构仍看好黄金后市表现，不过需关注 关税政策后续发展、美联储货币政策走向以及经济数据变化。 来源：金融界 2. 央行购金：今年1 - 5月，各国央行和其他机构平均每月购买77吨黄金，中国是5月最大买家。高盛预 计到2025年底金价达3700美元/盎司，2026年年中升至4000美元/盎司，各国央行持续购金为金价提供结 构性支撑。 3. 美联储政策：美联储内部对降不降息存在分歧，部分官员偏鹰言论限制金价上行。同时，市场关注美 国CPI数据，若通胀数据高于预期，市场对美联储9月降息预期减弱，美元走强，黄金承压；反之则为 黄金提供支撑。 以下是今日对黄金价格走势影响较大的3个主要资讯： 1. 关税政策：特朗普宣布对多国加征关税， ...

2025.07. 15 本文字数：2088，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 当地时间15日（周二），美国将公布6月消费者价格指数（CPI）。 种种迹象表明，在4月触及四年低位后，美国通胀指标将开始逐步回升。目前外界的焦点在于关税的 影响范围和持续时间，这将影响未来美联储的政策路径。美联储主席鲍威尔此前曾表示，他将关注今 夏的价格报告，以判断关税是否正在扭转过去三年一直在进行的反通胀趋势。 商品通胀回归 受能源价格下跌的影响，5月美国消费者通胀意外好于预期。当月，美国CPI同比上涨2.4%，略高于 4月份的四年低位2.3%，环比上涨0.1%，不包括食品和能源类别，核心CPI同比增速连续第三个月 保持在2.8%，环比上升0.1%，市场预期0.2%。 第一财经记者汇总发现，华尔街认为关税推动的价格压力将进一步显现。 预计6月美国总体通胀率将 攀升至2.7%，增速或创2023年底以来的最高点。按月度计算，CPI将环比增长0.3%，或为今年以 来新高。 不包括食品和能源，核心CPI月率将跃升至0.3%，同比增速有望进一步加快至2.9%-3.0%。美国银 行经济学家朱诺（Stephen Juneau）在报 ...

今日国内贵金属市场延续强势格局。沪银主力合约上周五夜盘首度突破9200元/千克关口后，今日继续 攀升，收盘大涨2.11%报9207元/千克，刷新历史峰值；沪金同步走强，收涨1.06%报781.4元/克。关税政 策波澜再起，美联储独立性受到干预，贵金属表现偏强，银价取得关键技术突破，关注关税谈判进展和 美联储政策动向。 关税惊雷引爆市场，避险情绪急速升温 据央视新闻报道，当地时间7月12日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发布致墨西哥和欧 盟的信件，宣布自2025年8月1日起，美国将对来自墨西哥和欧盟的输美产品征收30%的关税。首创期货 指出，受美联储政策、贸易紧张局势和供应缺口收紧的推动，国际银价短线飙升至39美元，为2011年以 来最高水平。美联储7月会议纪要显示，2025年降息将获得强劲支撑，美国国债收益率大幅走低，提振 白银。特朗普对14个国家激进的关税升级引发了避险资金流入白银和黄金市场。 国信期货指出，本轮突破行情或受关税冲突激化驱动，特朗普宣布对墨西哥、欧盟加征30%关税后，墨 方迅速斥责为"不公待遇"并启动烧碱反倾销调查，政策对抗或再度升级；与此同时中东局势持续紧绷， 伊朗核协议谈判陷 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The tariff situation has heated up again, the market risk appetite has declined, and short - term market hedging demand has increased, causing the gold price to break through an important level [2]. - The jump in the implied annualized lease rate of London spot silver indicates a surge in investment demand leading to tight inventories, providing strong support for the silver price, which may continue to rise in the short term [2]. - Gold prices may still be driven by three factors: the Fed's dovish policy expectation suppressing real interest rates, the risk of US fiscal deficit monetization pushing up sovereign credit premiums, and geopolitical uncertainty maintaining hedging demand [2]. - The long - term supply - demand tightness of silver provides price support. However, due to the large uncertainty in inflation prospects and the swing of rate - cut expectations, and the silver price being at a high level since 2012, it may face some short - term correction risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 781.4 yuan/gram, up 7.84 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 9207 yuan/kilogram, up 167 yuan [2]. - The position of the Shanghai gold main contract is 191,083 lots, up 9,151 lots; the position of the Shanghai silver main contract is 448,095 lots, up 45,139 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract is 133,792 lots, up 2,823 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract is 147,543 lots, up 16,243 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 28,857 kilograms, up 4,272 kilograms; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver is 1,223,982 kilograms, down 79,611 kilograms [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 774.2 yuan/gram, up 3.5 yuan; the spot price of silver on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 9168 yuan/kilogram, up 182 yuan [2]. - The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is - 7.2 yuan/gram, down 4.34 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract is - 39 yuan/kilogram, up 15 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The gold ETF position is 947.64 tons, down 1.16 tons; the silver ETF position is 14,758.52 tons, down 131.41 tons [2]. - The non - commercial net position of gold in CFTC is 202,968 contracts, up 988 contracts; the non - commercial net position of silver in CTFC is 58,521 contracts, down 4,879 contracts [2]. - The total supply of gold in the quarter is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total supply of silver in the year is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces [2]. - The total demand for gold in the quarter is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global total demand for silver in the year is 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.62%, up 0.73%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold is 13.69%, down 0.36% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 19.53%, down 0.02%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold is 19.53%, down 0.03% [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Trump has imposed tariffs on 25 trading partners in four batches from July 7 to July 12, with tax rates ranging from 20% to 50% [2]. - The 35% tariff on Canada does not apply to goods meeting the US - Mexico - Canada Agreement, and Canada will not double its retaliatory tariffs on steel and aluminum as originally planned [2]. - Trump has criticized Fed Chairman Powell multiple times this year for not announcing rate cuts, and the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in July is 93.3% [2].

虽然市场对最新一轮关税威胁反应平淡，但投资者切不可掉以轻心。美银和摩根大通均发出警告，美国面临的滞胀风险正在上升，这可能比短期关税波动 更具威胁性。 美国政府此前宣布新一轮关税措施。据央视新闻报道，当地时间7月12日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发布致墨西哥和欧盟的信件，宣 布自2025年8月1日起，美国将对来自墨西哥和欧盟的输美产品征收30%的关税。而根据之前信息，日本和韩国面临25%的关税税率，巴西则面临高达50% 的惩罚性关税。 据追风交易台信息，美银分析师在7月11日的报告中表示，如果这些威胁全面落实，美国有效关税税率将从目前的13.4%升至14.9%，而在"无协议"情景 下更可能达到18-20%的水平。 分析师警告，新关税措辞增加了滞胀的风险，即更高的通货膨胀和更低的经济活动，因为不确定性增加，且在关税提高和供应链中断共同导致的供应冲击 对通货膨胀预期影响的推动下，通胀预期上升。 在这种情况下，由于担心关税对通胀的滞后影响，美联储不太可能边际降息。企业为避免失去市场份额，会平稳地将成本转嫁到价格上。从时间上延 续"先升级再降级"的策略，而这只会增加美联储观望的可能。 下半年不确定性将持 ...

美元指数企稳反弹，利率预期仍存不确定性 BCR每周金融市场回顾：美元企稳反弹，资产价格波动加剧 2025年7月第一周，全球金融市场围绕美联储政策预期、特朗普政府贸易政策、地缘政治动态等多个核 心变量展开博弈。美元指数整体震荡上行，避险与通胀预期并存推动贵金属维持强势，而原油和股市则 呈现分化走势。BCR为您梳理本周关键市场动向与趋势分析。 受特朗普加征关税威胁影响，加之市场对美联储降息路径存在分歧，美元指数本周震荡上扬，一度逼近 98关口，最终收于97.83，录得三周来首次周线级上涨，涨幅0.9%。当前，投资者密切关注美联储7月会 议纪要释放的信号，尽管部分委员支持降息，但整体态度仍显谨慎，政策前景存在较大不确定性。 澳元兑美元持续反弹，得益于澳洲联储意外维持利率不变，市场对未来政策转向的押注升温。英镑则录 得六连跌，反映出英国经济增长与通胀前景的双重压力。欧元则因欧洲央行官员偏鸽言论而承压。美元 兑日元则在周初上行后转入震荡，本周累计上涨近2%。 尽管特朗普再度挥舞关税"大棒"，全球风险偏好维持回暖态势。以英伟达为代表的科技巨头市值持续走 高，英伟达市值突破4万亿美元带动纳指与标普500指数一度刷新历史新高 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Macro uncertainties are strong, and short - term macro impacts may still fluctuate. Fundamentally, supply is stable while consumption is seasonally weak, but market arrivals are not abundant, and the continuous accumulation of aluminum ingot social inventory is not confirmed. The long - position atmosphere in the short - term remains, and future inventory changes should be monitored [2][6] Group 3: Summary by Directory Transaction Data - LME Aluminum 3 - month price rose from 2597.5 to 2602 yuan/ton; SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three rose from 20490 to 20525 dollars/ton; LME Aluminum inventory increased by 36350 tons to 400275 tons; SHFE Aluminum warehouse receipt inventory increased by 13495 tons to 51980 tons; spot average price decreased by 102 yuan/ton to 20698 yuan/ton; electrolytic aluminum weekly average profit decreased by 139.4 yuan/ton to 4111.18 yuan/ton [3] Market Review - The weekly average spot price was 20698 yuan/ton, a decrease of 102 yuan/ton from last week. Fed officials have different views on interest rate prospects. Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper starting August 1, 2025. The domestic downstream aluminum processing industry's operating rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.6%. On July 10, electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.8 tons to 46.6 tons, and aluminum rod inventory increased by 0.65 tons to 16 tons [4][5] Market Outlook - Similar to the core view, macro uncertainties are high, and short - term macro impacts may fluctuate. Fundamentally, supply is stable and consumption is seasonally weak, but market arrivals are scarce, and the continuous accumulation of inventory is not confirmed. The long - position atmosphere remains, and inventory changes should be monitored [6] Industry News - Yunnan held a meeting on the green aluminum industry, and the Wenshan Zhilv project was put into operation; Canada may provide financial support to large aluminum producers if the 50% US aluminum import tariff persists; Baotou Aluminum's 200,000 - ton project had a successful hot - load test [7] Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including LME Aluminum 3 - SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three price trends, LME Aluminum premium, etc., to show the market situation of the aluminum industry [8][9][12]

现货黄金报3329附近美元/盎司； 现货白银报37.15美元/盎司； 基本面： 周五（7月11日）银价早盘压力位震荡，白银价格长时间保持区间震荡行情，适当减少白银的投资时间周期，同时也可以减少白银的仓位，短期交易或者观 望为主。基本面美国劳动力市场的最新数据为金市分析提供了重要背景。美国劳工部周四公布的数据显示，截至7月5日当周，初请失业金人数意外降至22.7 万人，低于市场预期的23.5万人，创七周以来最低水平。这一数据表明，尽管劳动力市场存在降温迹象，雇主仍在努力留住员工，显示出劳动力市场的韧 性。然而，续请失业金人数却升至2021年11月以来的最高水平，达到196.5万人，表明失业者寻找新工作的难度正在增加。景顺固定收益首席策略师Rob Waldner评论称，当前劳动力市场呈现出"停滞"特征，企业倾向于通过降低员工流失率和减少招聘来控制成本，而非大规模裁员。这种低裁员、低招聘的趋 势使得劳动力市场保持了相对稳定，但也为经济前景蒙上了一层不确定性。 劳动力市场的复杂信号对黄金市场的影响是双重的。一方面，强劲的就业数据提振了美元和美债收益率，进一步压制金价；另一方面，劳动力市场潜在的疲 软迹象可能在未来为黄 ...

Fundamental Analysis - Trump's tariff policy is set to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper and Brazilian goods starting August 1, escalating trade tensions with Brazil. Brazilian President Lula seeks diplomatic solutions but warns of reciprocal measures if tariffs are enacted. This policy may increase commodity prices, intensifying inflationary pressures, which presents both opportunities and challenges for gold as an inflation hedge. However, a stronger dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields could offset this benefit [3]. - Recent U.S. labor data shows initial jobless claims fell to 227,000, below the expected 235,000, marking a seven-week low. Conversely, continuing claims rose to 1.965 million, the highest since November 2021, indicating increased difficulty for unemployed individuals in finding new jobs [4]. - Strong employment data has bolstered the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, further suppressing gold prices. Potential signs of labor market weakness may provide support for gold's safe-haven demand in the future [5]. - The June Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate that while some officials suggest a possible rate cut this month, most remain cautious about inflation pressures from tariffs, preferring to maintain the current policy rate of 4.25%-4.50%. St. Louis Fed President Bullard noted that the impact of tariffs on inflation may not fully materialize until late 2025 or early 2026, leading to a cautious stance on rate cuts. The futures market anticipates a 25 basis point cut in September and a total of 53 basis points by year-end. Fed Governor Waller's comments have injected some optimism, suggesting that the upcoming policy meeting may open the door for rate cuts. Lower interest rates typically weaken the dollar and boost gold prices, but the uncertainty surrounding tariff policies may continue to limit gold's upside potential [6]. Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices have been in a converging triangle pattern since encountering resistance at the 3500 level on April 22. Following a recent decline, gold showed signs of recovery, closing with a small gain on Thursday. The current moving averages are intertwined, indicating a short-term sideways market. Key resistance levels to watch are between 3340-3346, which coincide with the 20-day and 30-day moving averages and previous resistance points. A breakout above this range could extend the bullish trend towards the previous highs of 3365-3366 and the Fibonacci retracement level of 3374. Support is focused around 3284, formed by connecting the lows from May 15 and June 30 [7]. - On the four-hour chart, the price has recently approached a trendline resistance formed by the previous high since the decline from 3452. The price touched the 3330 resistance level, and there are indications of a potential upward breakout. If this occurs, the strategy should focus on maintaining support at the recent low of 3310, looking for buying opportunities during price pullbacks. Key upward targets include the 3345/3346 and 3365/3366 regions, while support levels to monitor are the recent low of 3310 and the lower low of 3282 [9].