Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The stock market may experience increased short - term volatility after continuous previous gains, but the general approach is to go long on dips. The bond market is expected to have a downward trend in interest rates in the long run, with a possible short - term return to a volatile pattern. Precious metals prices are supported by Trump's influence on the Fed, and it is advisable to buy on dips. Base metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products each have their own supply - demand and price trends, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended [3][5][6]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial Stock Index - **News**: The central bank will conduct a 7000 - billion - yuan repurchase operation on August 8th. Huawei may launch a triple - folding eSIM phone, and eSIM services are resumed. Seven departments aim to make breakthroughs in brain - computer interface technology by 2027. Apple will invest 6000 billion dollars in the US in the next four years [2]. - **Basis Point Ratios**: The basis point ratios of different contracts for IF, IC, IM, and IH are provided. The trading logic is to go long on dips in the long - term despite short - term volatility [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Quotes**: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different increases. - **News**: China's July exports and imports increased year - on - year. The central bank will conduct a 7000 - billion - yuan repurchase operation. The central bank had a net withdrawal of 1225 billion yuan on Thursday [4]. - **Strategy**: Interest rates are expected to decline in the long run, but the bond market may return to a volatile pattern in the short term [5]. Precious Metals - **Quotes**: Shanghai gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver all rose. The US 10 - year Treasury yield is 4.23%, and the US dollar index is 98.00 [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Trump's influence on the Fed supports precious metals prices. It is recommended to buy on dips, with reference price ranges provided for Shanghai gold and silver [6][7]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Quotes**: LME copper closed down 0.04%, and Shanghai copper closed at 78360 yuan/ton. - **Industry**: LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic social inventory decreased slightly. The price is expected to have a limited upside in the short term, with reference price ranges provided [9]. Aluminum - **Quotes**: LME aluminum closed down 0.42%, and Shanghai aluminum closed at 20670 yuan/ton. - **Industry**: Domestic aluminum ingot inventory is relatively low, but the short - term upward movement is difficult, with reference price ranges provided [10]. Zinc - **Quotes**: Shanghai zinc index rose 0.97%. - **Industry**: Zinc ore inventory is increasing, and domestic zinc ingot inventory is accumulating. The short - term consumption is weakening, and the price decline risk is rising [11][12]. Lead - **Quotes**: Shanghai lead index rose 0.19%. - **Industry**: Lead ore inventory is decreasing, and lead ingot supply is tightening. The short - term price is expected to be strong [13]. Nickel - **Quotes**: Nickel price rebounded slightly. - **Industry**: Nickel price is still anchored to nickel iron price. It is recommended to wait and see, with reference price ranges provided [14]. Tin - **Quotes**: Shanghai tin rose 0.38%. - **Industry**: Tin supply and demand are both weak in the short term, and the price is expected to be volatile and weak, with reference price ranges provided [15][16]. Carbonate Lithium - **Quotes**: The spot index was flat, and the futures contract rose 3.85%. - **Industry**: The supply is increasing, and the inventory is rising. The price is affected by capital games, with a reference price range provided [17]. Alumina - **Quotes**: The index fell 0.62%. - **Industry**: The supply is expected to be in excess. It is recommended to short on rallies, with a reference price range provided [18]. Stainless Steel - **Quotes**: The futures contract rose 0.50%. - **Industry**: The social inventory decreased, and the short - term price is expected to be strong [19]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Quotes**: The contract rose 0.3%. - **Industry**: The downstream is in the off - season, and the price rebound space is limited [20][21]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Quotes**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices declined. - **Industry**: The supply and demand of rebar increased, and those of hot - rolled coil decreased. The inventory is rising, and the price may return to the supply - demand logic. It is recommended to pay attention to demand and cost [23][24]. Iron Ore - **Quotes**: The futures contract fell 0.19%. - **Industry**: The supply is affected by overseas shipments, and the demand is related to iron water production. The short - term trend is not strong, and attention should be paid to demand and possible production restrictions [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price was flat, and the inventory increased. The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and the long - term trend depends on real estate policies [27]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price fell, and the inventory increased. The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and short on rallies in the long term [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Quotes**: Manganese silicon fell 0.52%, and ferrosilicon fell 1.25%. - **Industry**: The short - term price is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to wait and see for investment positions and choose hedging opportunities for hedging positions [29]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures contract fell 0.52%. The supply is in excess, and the demand is insufficient. The price is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to relevant initiatives [33][34]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures contract fell 2.41%. The price is affected by capacity policies and is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to be cautious [35][36]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Quotes**: NR and RU rebounded and then oscillated. - **Industry**: The tire industry has different operating rates. The rubber price is recommended to be traded with a slightly long - biased and fast - in - and - out strategy [38][39][41]. Crude Oil - **Quotes**: WTI, Brent, and INE crude oil futures all fell. - **Industry**: The fundamentals are healthy, but the seasonal demand will limit the upside. It is recommended to go long on dips and set a target price [42]. Methanol - **Quotes**: The 09 contract fell 8 yuan/ton. - **Industry**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. It can be considered as a short - position variety in the sector [43]. Urea - **Quotes**: The 09 contract fell 13 yuan/ton. - **Industry**: The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips [44]. Styrene - **Quotes**: The spot and futures prices rose. - **Industry**: The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the price may follow the cost to rise after the port inventory is reduced [45]. PVC - **Quotes**: The 09 contract fell 5 yuan. - **Industry**: The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the valuation is high. It is recommended to wait and see [47]. Ethylene Glycol - **Quotes**: The 09 contract fell 18 yuan. - **Industry**: The supply and demand are changing, and the inventory is expected to increase. The short - term valuation may decline [48]. PTA - **Quotes**: The 09 contract fell 36 yuan. - **Industry**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is about to end the off - season. It is recommended to go long on dips following PX [49]. p - Xylene - **Quotes**: The 09 contract fell 38 yuan. - **Industry**: The load is high, and the inventory is expected to decrease. It is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil [50]. Polyethylene PE - **Quotes**: The futures price fell. - **Industry**: The price is affected by cost and supply - demand. It is recommended to hold short positions [51]. Polypropylene PP - **Quotes**: The futures price fell. - **Industry**: The price is expected to follow crude oil to rise in July, affected by supply and demand [52]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Quotes**: The domestic pig price continued to fall. - **Industry**: The supply is abundant, and the demand is limited. It is recommended to focus on the spread opportunities [54]. Eggs - **Quotes**: The egg price was mostly stable. - **Industry**: The supply is large, and the price is expected to be stable in the short term. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [55]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Important Information**: Malaysian palm oil export and production data, and Brazilian soybean planting area forecast are provided [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: The palm oil price is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to go long on dips for soybean meal and expand the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [58][61]. Sugar - **Quotes**: Zhengzhou sugar futures fell. - **Industry**: The import supply is increasing, and the price is expected to continue to fall [62][63]. Cotton - **Quotes**: Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to oscillate. - **Industry**: The downstream consumption is average, and the price is expected to be short - term bearish [64].

Group 1: Market Overview - The economic data for July showed a stable performance, with policy stimulus expectations driving market trends, particularly following the announcement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower station project, which has an investment scale of over 1 trillion yuan, leading to significant increases in equity and commodity markets [3][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index recorded increases of 3.74% and 5.32% respectively, reflecting improved market risk appetite [3][4] - The bond market underperformed due to negative factors such as the "stock-bond seesaw" effect and unexpected tightening of liquidity around tax periods, resulting in rising yields across different maturities [4][11] Group 2: Macroeconomic Environment - The macroeconomic environment remains mixed, with GDP growth around 5.35% year-on-year, but nominal growth lagging at 3.9%, indicating a strong aggregate but weak microeconomic structure [5][34] - Manufacturing PMI for June was recorded at 49.7%, showing a slight recovery but still indicating contraction, while consumer demand showed signs of divergence with retail sales exceeding expectations [5][34] - The monetary policy stance has shifted towards a more hawkish tone, reducing expectations for further rate cuts in the near term [5][34] Group 3: Bond Market Outlook - Looking ahead to Q3, demand remains weak, and short-term policy stimulus expectations are retracting; however, the cooling of commodity and stock markets may provide support for the bond market [6][34] - There is potential for a 10-12 basis point downward adjustment in the yields of 10-year and 30-year government bonds, indicating attractive potential returns [3][6] - The bond issuance pressure is expected to increase in August, with net issuance projected to rise to 1.47 trillion yuan, although it may ease in September [21][34]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of asset yields has shown divergence, with fixed income products experiencing a decline while "fixed income +" and mixed products have yielded better returns, highlighting the advantages of diversified allocation strategies in the current market environment [1][2][7]. Group 1: Market Trends - Since late July, the bond market has seen adjustments, leading to a decline in the yields of pure fixed income products, which are primarily based on bonds [2][3]. - The average annualized yield for open-ended fixed income products from July 21 to July 27 was 2.81%, down 0.23 percentage points from the previous period, while the average redemption yield was 2.43%, down 0.21 percentage points [2]. - Factors influencing the bond market include increased expectations for "anti-involution" policies, a strong equity market, and a shift in investor risk appetite, causing funds to flow from the bond market to the equity market [3]. Group 2: Product Performance - Some "fixed income +" products have provided significant returns, with one product yielding over 4% annualized in the past month, utilizing a mix of stable fixed income assets and diversified strategies [4][6]. - The "fixed income +" products incorporate various strategies, including gold, high dividend, and preferred stock strategies, aiming to balance risk and return [4][7]. - The use of multi-asset strategies, such as FOF (Fund of Funds), allows for diversified investment across multiple funds, enhancing risk-return profiles [5][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to remain volatile in the first half of 2025, which may impact the yields of financial products, with "fixed income +" products becoming increasingly valuable in this context [7][8]. - There is a structural contradiction between ample funds and a scarcity of quality assets, suggesting that "fixed income +" products will play a crucial role in balancing returns and volatility [7]. - The industry is encouraged to explore project-based assets and capture structural opportunities in the equity market through various strategies, including quantitative index enhancement and cross-border investments [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of financial products is showing divergence, with "fixed income +" products gaining advantages in a volatile bond market, while pure fixed income products are experiencing a decline in yields [1][2][5] Asset Performance Divergence - Since late July, the bond market has seen adjustments, leading to a decline in yields for pure fixed income financial products, which primarily consist of bonds. The average annualized yield for open-ended fixed income products was 2.81%, down 0.23 percentage points from the previous month [1][2] Market Dynamics - Financial companies are reducing long-duration bonds to lower volatility, which further exacerbates the decline in yields. The bond market's adjustment is influenced by expectations of "anti-involution" policies and a stronger equity market, prompting a shift of funds from bonds to equities [2][3] Diversified Allocation Strategies - "Fixed income +" products are designed to balance risk and return by incorporating a mix of fixed income and equity assets. Strategies include investments in high-dividend stocks, gold, and various equity indices, aiming to enhance yields through diversified asset allocation [3][4] Future Outlook - The financial market is expected to face structural contradictions between ample funds and a scarcity of quality assets. "Fixed income +" products are anticipated to become important tools for balancing returns and volatility, with a potential increase in the scale of rights-inclusive financial products [5][6]

今日"股商"接着奏乐接着舞，但我债也没在怕的，国债期货在5日线和20日线之间玩"夹缝生存"已经6个 交易日。债农屏住呼吸、静待方向选择，不知催化剂会是股市、数据、还是一级发行？ "一鼓作气，再而衰，三而竭。"打战如此，做投资也是如此，因为背后的人性是相通的，投资中也是人 与人之间的搏斗。所以，不要自作聪明地以为，同样的行情出现两次后，自己就掌握了规律，看到了机 会，就期待行情出现第三次，进而从中获利。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250806— 牛市啤酒，简称"牛啤"（-股市延续偏强-商品多数上涨+继续传大行买债+资金面均衡 偏松=涨跌互现)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率涨跌不一。 央行公开市场开展1385亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有3090亿元逆回购到期，净回笼1705亿元。 资金面均衡偏松，资金利率平稳，DR001在1.32%附近，DR007在1.46%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025.08.06) | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market lacks its own driving factors this year, with its fluctuations mainly influenced by external factors. The "endogenous" fluctuations of the bond market are converging, and it's difficult to change the "meager fluctuations" of this year's bond market. In the second half of the year, the bond market is expected to have narrow - range oscillations each month, and neither excessive short - nor long - positions are advisable [5][10][35] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 6 - month Bond Market's Expected "Old Script" - Since June, interest rates have been consolidating and oscillating, and fund durations have gradually increased, anticipating a downward trend in interest rates in July. The market was skeptical about the economic outlook despite good Q2 GDP data, expecting a neutral tone from the July Politburo meeting. As a result, in early July, the overall fund duration increased, and there was an expansion of credit - bond ETFs. In June, the net inflow of market - making credit - bond ETFs was 6.3314 billion yuan, a 146% increase from May. In mid - July, the Sci - tech Innovation Bond ETF took over the market, with an average duration of about 4.3 years and 3.9 years for the tracked indices [13] 2. New Developments in the Equity and Commodity Markets - Starting from June, the commodity and equity markets showed a completely opposite trend to the bond market, entering a trading mode with rapidly increasing risk appetite. Commodity prices rebounded from lows and then rose across the board, fully recovering the gap caused by the April tariff shock by July 22. The equity market reached new highs and continued to rise, spreading from bank dividends to low - valuation sectors in the technology sector and then to the cyclical sector. The bond market's expected scenario did not occur, and it started to adjust rapidly on July 21 [4] 3. Bond Market's Rise and Fall Driven by External Factors - The bond market has been in a narrow - range technical oscillation, with interest rates fluctuating around the central level by about 10 BP. Two major factors causing significant adjustments in the bond market are external: the unexpected escalation of trade frictions in April led to a sharp decline in bond interest rates, with the 10Y Treasury bond rate dropping from over 1.8% to 1.61% on April 7; the resonance of the equity and commodity markets in late July led to an accelerated upward movement of the 10Y interest rate, breaking through 1.70% [5][21] 4. The "Positive and Negative" Sides of the Convergence of Bond Market's Endogenous Fluctuations - On one hand, the yields of bond - based funds have declined, and the expected returns of bond - related assets need adjustment. As of August 1, the performance of pure - bond funds this year has been weaker than in 2024. On the other hand, the market's attention to bonds has significantly decreased. The trading volume of Treasury bond futures has not changed significantly, while the trading volume of coking coal contracts has increased. The "asset shortage" narrative in the bond market is also weakening, as insurance premium growth has slowed, rural commercial banks' trading volume has decreased, and the buying power of wealth management products for long - term bonds has weakened [24][25][26] 5. Main Themes in the Second Half of the Year - The market needs to find factors beyond the "stock - bond seesaw" effect. When the equity market stabilizes above 3500 points, it's necessary to consider the factors jointly influencing the stock and bond markets. The expectations, verifications, and adjustments of "anti - involution" will continue, and the market's understanding will change. The underestimated overseas and tariff factors may resurface. The most important factor for the bond market may be its own asset - liability changes. If the average annualized returns of bond funds and wealth management products are less than 1.5% by the end of the year, there may be a shift of deposits to riskier assets [8][30][33]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term evaluations and outlooks for multiple commodities, including predictions on price trends and trading suggestions [1][3][4]. Summaries by Commodity 1. Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The national heavy - quality soda ash mainstream price is 1353 yuan/ton, with recent weak oscillations. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 1370 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [1]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol starts at a high level and continues to rise. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with support at 2485 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. - **PX**: PX supply and demand turns marginally weaker. It is expected to oscillate weakly, affected by increased domestic supply and decreased demand [12]. 2. Metals - **Gold**: The US economic downward pressure increases, but the global economy recovers. The dollar index has weak rebound momentum, which is bullish for gold. However, the probability of gold exceeding the previous high is low, and it will remain in a high - level oscillation with a slightly bearish mid - term trend [1]. - **Silver**: Trump criticizes the Fed again, increasing market risk appetite. The dollar index has weak rebound momentum, and silver oscillates bullishly [11]. - **Iron Ore**: The global iron ore shipment volume rebounds. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate following the sector [3]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The cost support is fair, but the supply - demand relationship may become looser in the long - term. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [4]. - **Rebar**: High cost and low demand compete, and the steel price may oscillate in a narrow range in the short - term [4]. 3. Energy - **Crude Oil**: The market focuses on OPEC+ production cuts and US sanctions on Russia. The international crude oil price is under pressure and is expected to be weak in the short - term [11]. 4. Agricultural Products - **Pork**: The short - term market maintains a situation of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to operate within a range in the short - term or long - term layout of LH2511 long positions [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rapeseed meal price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [7]. - **Palm Oil**: The domestic spot fundamentals are weak, but there is limited downward space in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see if it can break through the previous high of 9106 yuan/ton [8]. 5. Others - **Plastic**: LLDPE production enterprises' inventory decreases, and the price decline slows down. The L2601 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 7390 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [9]. - **Short - term Treasury Bonds**: The economic downward pressure increases, and liquidity eases, which is bullish for the short - end bond market. The stock - bond seesaw is the main logic [9]. - **Medium - and Long - term Treasury Bonds**: The policy is positive, but the stock market recovers, and the bond market is affected by the stock - bond seesaw [10]. - **Rubber**: The overall supply - demand of rubber is expected to be tight throughout the year. The rubber price is expected to continue to rebound in the short - term [13].

Group 1: Market Overview - The economic data for July showed a stable performance, with policy stimulus expectations driving market trends, particularly following the announcement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower station project, which has an investment scale of over 1 trillion yuan, leading to significant increases in equity and commodity markets [3][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index recorded increases of 3.74% and 5.32% respectively, reflecting improved market risk appetite [3][4] - The bond market underperformed due to negative factors such as the "stock-bond seesaw" effect and unexpected tightening of liquidity around tax periods, resulting in rising yields across different maturities [4][11] Group 2: Macroeconomic Environment - The macroeconomic environment remains mixed, with GDP growth around 5.35% year-on-year, but nominal growth remains weak at 3.9% [5][35] - Manufacturing PMI for June was recorded at 49.7%, indicating a slight recovery but still below the expansion threshold, suggesting potential economic slowdown in the third quarter [5][35] - The central bank's monetary policy appears hawkish, reducing expectations for further rate cuts in the near term [5][35] Group 3: Bond Market Strategy - Looking ahead to the third quarter, demand remains weak, and short-term policy stimulus expectations are retracting, but the cooling of commodity and stock markets may provide support for the bond market [6][35] - There is potential for a 10-12 basis point downward adjustment in the yields of 10-year and 30-year government bonds, indicating attractive returns for investors [3][6] - The strategy suggests early positioning in varieties that can absorb incremental funds as a favorable approach [6][35] Group 4: Government Bond Issuance - In July, government bond issuance pressure was higher than in June, with local government bonds net issuance reaching 1.2135 trillion yuan, marking it as the second-highest month of net issuance this year [21][22] - The net issuance of treasury bonds in July was 593.3 billion yuan, with expectations for increased supply in August and September [21][22] - The anticipated net issuance scale for government bonds in August and September is projected to be 1.47 trillion and 1.14 trillion yuan respectively, indicating a heavier supply pressure in August [21][22] Group 5: Funding Conditions - The central bank's liquidity injections have led to a decrease in funding costs, with the average rates for DR001 and R001 falling to 1.45% and 1.39% respectively [26][27] - The funding environment for August is expected to remain stable, with historical data suggesting limited changes in funding rates compared to July [27][34] - The net cash flow from the central bank in July was 300 billion yuan, indicating continued support for liquidity in the market [26][27]

Report Information - Report Type: Stock Index Daily Review [1] - Date: August 5, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Nie Jiayi (Stock Index), He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), Huang Wenxin (Macro Treasury Bonds and Container Shipping) [3] 1. Market Review and Future Outlook 1.1 Market Review - On August 4, the Wind All A index opened lower and then fluctuated upward, closing up 0.76%, with more than 3,500 stocks falling. [6] - In terms of index spot, the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 closed up 0.39%, 0.55%, 0.78%, and 1.04% respectively, with small and medium - cap stocks performing better. [6] - Index futures performed stronger than spot. The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM closed up 0.58%, 0.58%, 1.06%, and 1.53% respectively (calculated based on the previous trading day's closing price). [6] 1.2 Future Outlook - In the external market, the US non - farm payrolls in July were 73,000, significantly lower than expected, and the data for May - June was revised down by a total of 258,000, indicating a weakening US labor market, which may boost the Fed's restart of the interest - rate cut process. [8] - Domestically, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration jointly announced on August 1 that starting from August 8, value - added tax will be restored on the interest income of newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds after this date. Under the stock - bond seesaw, it is more beneficial to the equity market, especially the dividend sector. [8] - In terms of funds, the trading volume of A - shares shrank today. After the Shanghai Composite Index pulled back, it attacked the 3,600 - point mark again. Long - position holders can consider adding positions on dips. [8] - In terms of market style, the dumbbell strategy remains unchanged. The SSE 50 with stable earnings and the CSI 1000 with higher earnings recovery elasticity may perform relatively better. [8] 2. Data Overview - The report presents various data charts including domestic main index performance, market style performance, industry sector performance (Shenwan Primary Index), trading volume of Wind All A, trading volume of stock index spot, trading volume and open interest of stock index futures, basis trend of main contracts, inter - period spread trend, share statistics of major ETF funds, and turnover statistics of major ETFs, all sourced from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures. [9][14][16][18][21] 3. Industry News - No industry news is provided in the report. [31]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No report industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. Group 2: Report Core Views - Due to weak US employment data and strong Fed rate - cut signals, market risk appetite increases, the dollar index drops, and precious metals oscillate and stabilize. Silver is bullish in oscillation [1]. - The US - India tariff negotiation continues, the dollar index weakens, which is positive for gold. However, the probability of gold exceeding the previous high is low, and it will be in a mid - term high - level oscillation with a slightly bearish trend [3]. - The coke market is still in a state of tight supply and demand after five rounds of price hikes. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [1]. - The money market is loose, which is positive for short - term bonds, but the stock market rebounds, which is negative for the bond market. The stock - bond seesaw logic remains the main logic [3]. - The steel market returns to fundamentals. Due to high - temperature and rainy weather, demand is weak. Steel mills have good profits, and inventory reduction is under pressure. Steel prices may adjust narrowly in the short - term [4]. - Iron ore supply and demand are stable, which strongly supports the price. It is expected to be strong in short - term oscillation [4]. - The pig market has a strong supply and weak demand. Prices are expected to decline more than rise in the short - term [5]. - The palm oil market has a weak fundamental, but there is little room for a sharp downward movement in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - The rapeseed meal price will stabilize after a decline and continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [6]. - The short - fiber market has a weak fundamental, and demand is in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - OPEC+ maintains a production - increase stance, but the production increase is far from the target. The short - term trend is weak [7]. - The overall supply and demand of rubber are expected to be tight throughout the year. It will oscillate at a low level in the short - term [8]. - The methanol market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [9][10]. - The soda ash market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [10]. - The LLDPE market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. Group 3: Summaries by Product Precious Metals - **Silver**: US employment data is weak, Fed officials signal rate cuts, the dollar index drops, and silver is bullish in oscillation [1]. - **Gold**: US - India tariff negotiation affects the dollar index, and gold is in mid - term high - level oscillation with a slightly bearish trend [3]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ maintains production increase, but the actual increase is far from the target. The short - term trend is weak [7]. Industrial Metals - **Coke**: After five rounds of price hikes, the market is in tight supply - demand, and it will oscillate in the short - term [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply and demand are stable, and it is expected to be strong in short - term oscillation [4]. - **Steel**: The market returns to fundamentals, demand is weak, and prices may adjust narrowly in the short - term [4]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: Supply is strong and demand is weak, and prices are expected to decline more than rise in the short - term [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The fundamental is weak, and there is little short - term downward space. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The price will stabilize after a decline and continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [6]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [9][10]. - **Soda Ash**: The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [10]. - **LLDPE**: The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. Others - **Short - term Treasury Bonds**: The money market is loose, which is positive for short - term bonds, but the stock market rebounds, which is negative for the bond market. The stock - bond seesaw logic remains the main logic [3]. - **Rubber**: The overall supply and demand are expected to be tight throughout the year. It will oscillate at a low level in the short - term [8]. - **Short - fiber**: The fundamental is weak, and demand is in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate weakly [6].