Group 1 - The article discusses three main topics: A-share mid-term reports, Alibaba's Q2 report, and the issue of style switching in the market [1] - In the A-share mid-term reports, the leading sectors today include telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, electronics, machinery, and pharmaceuticals, with telecommunications showing a net profit growth of 8% year-on-year, while the other three sectors are around 20% [2][18] - Alibaba's stock rose over 18% today after a 13% increase in the US market, contributing 1.4% to the Hang Seng Technology Index's overall gain of 2.2% [2][3] Group 2 - The article notes a significant divergence between the stock and bond markets, with the stock market seeing a surge in the optical module sector while long-term interest rates on bonds declined [3] - The optical module sector, referred to as "Yizhongtian," has seen substantial gains, with average increases exceeding 100% since August [5][6] - The article outlines four key points explaining the current market behavior, emphasizing that the inability to short-sell in the short term is a core issue [14] Group 3 - The article highlights the performance of the non-ferrous metals sector, which has shown a year-on-year net profit growth of 37% in the first half of the year, making it one of the few sectors with double-digit growth [22][23] - The article also mentions that the current market structure is characterized by a "dumbbell" approach, with investments in both high-dividend monopolistic sectors and high-growth sectors with reasonable valuations [21] - The article indicates that the insurance industry has officially lowered its preset interest rates starting today, and a new personal consumption loan subsidy policy has been launched by over 20 banks [30][31]

Core Viewpoint - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is fundamentally an asset price comparison effect following the reduction of deposit interest rates, which has led to increased acceptance of equity assets as funds are released from low-risk investments [1][8]. Group 1: Underlying Logic of Deposit Migration - The driving force behind deposit migration stems from the continuous decline in deposit interest rates, prompting residents to seek new asset opportunities as old asset returns diminish [2][8]. - There exists a clear seesaw effect between resident deposits (especially fixed deposits) and deposits in non-bank financial institutions, with the timing and final flow influenced by the macroeconomic environment and risk appetite [8]. Group 2: Impact on Stock and Bond Markets - The current round of deposit migration began in June 2023, initially flowing into money market funds and bond funds, with a noticeable increase in equity fund inflows only after the "924" policy [2][8]. - Theoretically, the decline in risk-free interest rates should lead to a simultaneous rise in both stock and bond markets, but due to transmission lags or liquidity traps, these markets may experience staggered movements, as seen in previous years [8]. Group 3: Unique Aspects of the Current Deposit Migration - Unlike previous instances, the current liquidity bull market does not aim to devalue the currency, as the central bank has not engaged in extensive monetary easing but rather focused on guiding capital back into the market [2][8]. - The recent increase in risk appetite is a result of significant macroeconomic changes, with the central bank's continuous guidance on exchange rate expectations reinforcing domestic risk appetite and restoring the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds [8].

关注长端债券机会，注意把控节奏 摘 要： 我国经济景气水平总体继续保持扩张，中国 8 月官方制造业 PMI、非制造业 PMI 和综合 PMI 分别为 49.4%、50.3%和 50.5%，环 比升 0.1、0.2 和 0.3 个百分点。九三阅兵在即，我国国际影响力 将进一步加强，离岸人民币汇率大幅升值，国内经济景气度的不断 上升，进一步提振风险偏好。下半年规模高达 5000 亿元的新型政 策性金融工具将出，重点投向新兴产业、基础设施等领域，国家开 发银行、中国农业发展银行、中国进出口银行等政策性银行参与其 中。如果下半年外围政策有任何变动，国内各种政策可以马上出台， 以保证经济复苏的趋势持续进行。 最近，多家中小银行宣布下调人民币存款利率，降幅达 10 到 20 个基点。近日，江苏银行、南京银行等多家银行宣布调整 3 年期 定期存款利率。央行新增支农支小再贷款额度 1000 亿元，引导和 鼓励金融机构加大对北京、河北、吉林、山东、甘肃等受灾地区的 经营主体特别是小微企业、个体工商户，以及农业、养殖企业和农 户的信贷支持力度。目前从流动性及货币政策方面，与央行发布第 二季度货币政策执行报告提出，下一阶段要落实落 ...

Market Overview - The bond market continued to fluctuate last week (2025.08.25-2025.08.29), with a warming market sentiment. The 1-year government bond yield decreased by 0.09 basis points to 1.37%, while the 10-year government bond yield increased by 5.61 basis points to 1.84%. Credit bonds showed overall recovery, with divergent trends in term spreads and credit spreads [3][9]. - U.S. Treasury yields also declined last week, with the 1-year yield falling to 3.83%, the 2-year yield to 3.59%, and the 10-year yield to 4.23%. This was influenced by concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve following the firing of a board member and strong demand for 2-year Treasury bonds [3][9]. REITs Market - The REITs market experienced a recovery, with the CSI REITs total return index rising by 1.06% over the week. The sectors that rebounded the most were affordable rental housing and consumer infrastructure, while transportation and energy sectors showed smaller fluctuations, indicating defensive attributes [3][10]. Public Fund Market Dynamics - The approval process for "rights-containing" mixed funds and secondary bond funds has accelerated. Recent regulatory updates indicate a focus on supporting the development of various fund types while prioritizing equity funds [4][11]. Fund Index Performance Tracking - The Money Enhanced Index rose by 0.03% last week, with a cumulative return of 3.99% since inception. Short-term bond fund selections fell by 0.03%, with a cumulative return of 4.15%. Mid to long-term bond fund selections increased by 0.07%, with a cumulative return of 6.21% [5][12][13]. - Low volatility fixed income + fund selections rose by 0.20%, with a cumulative return of 3.72%. Medium volatility fixed income + fund selections increased by 0.53%, with a cumulative return of 4.79%. High volatility fixed income + fund selections rose by 0.23%, with a cumulative return of 6.29% [6][12][13]. - Convertible bond fund selections fell by 1.28%, but have a cumulative return of 18.45%. QDII bond fund selections rose by 0.20%, with a cumulative return of 9.13% [6][12][13].

1月消费投资等经济数据再度出现明显疲软、或因季节性因素以及政策到期影响，整体经济整体增速过际放缓。同时反内卷政策效果明显，通胀指标有所起色，PPI 各项通缩压力有所缓和。 【宏观政策:政治局会议定调积级,反内卷政策持续发力】 会议延续"稳中求进"总基调，强调"保持政策连续性稳定性。增强灵活性预见他"。反内卷政策中服除"低价无序竞争"中的"低价"表达，转向依法治理元序 竞争,避免恶性价格战,鼓励企业以质量和服务竞争 【海外市场: 就业下降风险或超过通胀上升风险】 经济方面,7月非农数据确认美国就业市场显著走动,同时通胀持平前值，景气指数处于低位,经济下行风险或有抬头。 政策方面，8月央行年会美联储重新调整货币政策框架。使得9月降息都率大幅增加,预期年内有2-3次降息。此外关税政策反复较多，未来仍存不确定性。 【宏观国债月报20250831】通缩压力有所缓和，内需仍为主要矛 it 日期：2025-08-31 【宏观国债月报20250831】通缩压力有所缓和，内需仍为主要矛盾 【经济情况:7月数据回落】 9月美联储议息会议,以及国内经济数据 国债期货观点策略 | 2025-08-31 核心观点 | | --- | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The "stock - bond seesaw" is likely to continue weakening. The rise in the stock market is not due to expectations of rising economic data, and even when the stock market rises, the capital interest rate remains low and the financing demand such as credit has not significantly increased. The future trends of stocks and bonds will be relatively independent, and "trading bonds based on stocks" is not a good strategy. The more reasonable "right - side" trading signals for bond yield decline are the central bank's further easing policies and the accelerated entry of allocation - type institutions [4][9]. - The current bond market adjustment is different from that in the first quarter. The first - quarter adjustment was caused by the central bank's active tightening of liquidity, while the current one is due to institutions' active adjustment of investment strategies. It is expected that the short - end will be more stable than the long - end, and credit bonds will be more stable than interest - rate bonds [4][9]. - Considering the historical upward trend of interest rates in September compared to August and the "early" adjustment of the bond market in 2025, the bond market is expected to gradually build a top in a narrow - range oscillation. The short - term strategy suggests quick in - and - out trading of long - end bonds for small fluctuations and continuous holding of medium - and short - term credit bonds [4][11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market Weekly View: The "Stock - Bond Seesaw" May Continue to Weaken - Last week, the "stock - bond seesaw" weakened. The reasons for the stock market rise and bond market adjustment are independent of each other. The stock market rise is due to the improvement of national governance expectations and confidence in technological - led economic transformation, while the bond market adjustment is because of the low profit - making effect [4][7][9]. - The future trends of stocks and bonds will be relatively independent. The bond market adjustment this time is different from that in the first quarter, with the short - end and credit bonds being more stable. The bond market is expected to build a top in a narrow - range oscillation, and short - term strategies for long - end and medium - and short - term credit bonds are proposed [4][9][11]. 3.2 This Week's Focus in the Fixed - Income Market: Rising Treasury Bond Supply - Data to be released this week include China's August S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, US August ADP employment figures, and August unemployment rate. An important event is the grand military parade in Tiananmen Square, China on September 3 [14][15]. - At the beginning of the month, the local bond issuance scale declined, while the treasury bond issuance scale increased to a relatively high level. It is expected that a total of 6324 billion yuan of interest - rate bonds will be issued, which is at a relatively high level compared to the same period [15]. 3.3 Review and Outlook of Interest - Rate Bonds: Limited Bond Market Recovery - The central bank's reverse repurchase operations had a net investment of 196.1 billion yuan. The MLF was over - renewed, and the capital interest rate increase was controllable under the central bank's active investment. The repurchase trading volume decreased, and the overnight ratio decreased. The net financing of certificates of deposit remained negative, and the prices mainly declined [20][21][27]. - Last week, the bond market sentiment marginally recovered, but the bullish momentum was still weak. The long - end active bonds were basically flat compared to the previous week. The yield curve continued to steepen, with the long - end 10Y treasury bond yield rising the most and the 1Y policy bank bond yield falling the most [39][40]. 3.4 High - Frequency Data: Mainly Declining Operating Rates - On the production side, the operating rates of blast furnaces, semi - steel tires, petroleum asphalt, and PTA all declined, and the average daily crude steel production in mid - August had a year - on - year growth rate of - 0.4% [46]. - On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car manufacturers' wholesale and retail sales declined. The year - on - year growth rate of commercial housing transaction area was still significantly negative. The SCFI and CCFI composite indices changed by 2.1% and - 1.6% respectively [46]. - On the price side, crude oil, copper, and aluminum prices rose, coal prices were divided, and the prices of building materials, cement, and glass in the mid - stream changed to different extents. The output of rebar increased, and the inventory continued to rise rapidly. Vegetable prices rose, fruit prices changed slightly, and pork prices fell [47].

作者：王宪彪 诺德基金债券研究部总监 一、2025年以来债市回顾 2025年以来，国内债券市场整体收益率呈现出"窄幅震荡，调整频繁"的格局。由下图可见，2023年初至 2025年初，10年期国债收益率呈现较明显的下行趋势，相对宽松的资金面和较弱的基本面共同推动了近 两年的债券市场的上涨行情，然而，当前10年期国债收益率似乎触及1.6%附近的阻力点，2025年以来 绝大部分时间在1.63%-1.76%区间波动，且逐步呈现出市场方向转变频率加快的特点。 三季度后，债市持续回调：主要因权益市场投资环境、情绪的修复改善逐步成为国内资本市场的主线， 股债"跷跷板"对债市形成一定抽水效应。一方面，"反内卷"政策预期升温，商品、股市形成更坚定的叙 事逻辑，推动着A股成交量、市值修复至十年来最高，股市投资正反馈加强；另一方面，中央汇金等机 构 "托而不举"的股市调控政策，在股市回调时向宽基ETF投入资金以稳定大盘，对市场情绪的稳定有较 明显的安抚作用。 数据来源：数据来源于WIND，数据截止2025年8月20日，指数（中债国债到期收益率）行情走势不预 示其未来表现，也不代表具体基金产品表现。以上信息仅供参考，不代表任何投资建 ...

Core Viewpoint - There is a limited but noticeable flow of funds from the bond market to the stock market, with pure bond funds experiencing some redemptions, but the expansion of "fixed income +" products still requires bond allocations [1][36]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current stock market rise is not driven by demand or corporate earnings but rather by asset allocation and cost-effectiveness logic [2][9]. - Institutions are increasingly reallocating towards equity to meet performance requirements in a low-interest-rate environment, with significant changes in behavior observed across various sectors [2][10]. - The bond market remains under pressure, with macro narratives and low yields contributing to a challenging environment, while the stock market's performance is crucial for bond market dynamics [1][38]. Group 2: Institutional Behavior - Financial institutions are adapting by increasing the issuance of equity-linked products and collaborating more with public funds [2][10]. - Insurance companies are raising their equity investment ratios in line with policy guidance, leading to a significant increase in FVOCI stocks [2][10]. - Pension funds and annuities are beginning to compete on equity allocations, which may introduce volatility in the medium term [2][11]. Group 3: Banking Sector Insights - The banking sector faces potential instability in performance due to increased volatility in the bond market and discussions around balance sheet contraction [3][14]. - Recent trends indicate a "deposit migration" phenomenon, where funds are moving from banks to non-bank financial institutions, impacting the demand for government bonds [3][19]. - Despite concerns about balance sheet contraction, banks are not expected to sell bonds significantly, as their bond investment growth continues [3][27]. Group 4: Money Market Fund Trends - Historical patterns of money market fund redemptions have been linked to stock market surges and shifts in monetary policy, but current conditions do not suggest a significant risk of large-scale redemptions [4][34]. - The liquidity environment remains supportive, with the central bank's stance indicating a commitment to maintaining liquidity, which mitigates the risk of substantial outflows from money market funds [4][34]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The "fixed income +" products are expected to see growth as they provide a viable alternative for funds that cannot directly invest in equities, with innovations in product offerings becoming more pronounced [5][34]. - The bond market is anticipated to face challenges in the short term, but opportunities may arise for strategic positioning as market conditions evolve [38].

Market Overview - The stock market experienced a significant increase last week, with an average trading volume of 29,831 billion CNY, up by 3,957 billion CNY from the previous week[8] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.84%, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 4.36%[8] - The PMI for August was reported at 49.4%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a widening gap between supply and demand[8] Economic Indicators - In July, industrial enterprise profits decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 2.8 percentage points compared to June[9] - The cumulative profit for industrial enterprises showed a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%, slightly better than the previous value of -1.8%[9] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) remained unchanged at -3.6% compared to the previous month, while industrial revenue fell by 0.2 percentage points from the previous value[10] Monetary Policy and Market Sentiment - The central bank's liquidity support has returned to a stable and loose state, reducing the pressure on bond yields[8] - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to become attractive if it rises to 1.8%-1.9%[8] - The stock-bond "seesaw" effect has weakened, indicating a shift in market dynamics[8] International Market Dynamics - U.S. stock markets showed volatility, with the Dow Jones down by 0.19% and the S&P 500 down by 0.1%[8] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased to 4.23%, while the 2-year yield fell to 3.62%[8] - The offshore RMB appreciated by 492 basis points against the USD, closing at 7.1221[8] Risks and Challenges - There are concerns about the potential for unexpected weakness in the economic fundamentals, which could lead to increased market volatility[8] - The pressure from the White House on the Federal Reserve continues, raising concerns about the independence of the Fed and the uncertainty surrounding interest rate cuts[8]

近期债券市场出现回调，7月中下旬至8月中下旬先震荡后下行，十年期国债利率上破1.7%，市场担忧 会重现2022年理财大规模赎回引发的债市负反馈循环，进而导致债市从牛转熊。但此轮回调并非源于基 本面，更多受情绪面驱动，核心是"股债跷跷板"效应，股市情绪得到提振，对债市形成短期情绪压制与 有限的资金分流，并非债市自身逻辑生变。 从"股债跷跷板"效应影响来看，其对债市中长期冲击有限。当前利率存在超调，回调后债市配置价值凸 显。资金面看，股市对债市资金分流实际有限，银行自营作为债市核心配置力量，受股市虹吸影响极 小；理财规模仍处净买入状态，不会重蹈2022年负循环覆辙；交易型资金虽降久期，但配置型资金正积 极逢低加仓。 回顾近20年四轮债券熊市均具备两大核心特征：一是央行收紧货币政策，二是实体经济修复强劲、融资 需求旺盛。而当前债市不具备牛熊转换基础：基本面方面，7月社零、固投、工业增加值增速下滑，信 贷罕见负增长，经济修复力度偏弱，下半年增速预期偏低；政策面方面，央行二季度货币政策执行报告 延续"保持流动性充裕"表述，下半年流动性宽松基调不变；资金面方面，资产荒逻辑未来有望延续，保 险、银行等仍有刚性配置需求，债市 ...