Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views of the Report - This week, oil prices rose and then fell, with the month spreads of the three major crude oil markets increasing. Trump issued a secondary tariff warning to Russia. If Russia does not agree to a major peace agreement with Ukraine, a 100% tariff will be imposed on countries buying Russian oil, which makes the market worried about a decline in global crude oil supply. Although Russian crude oil exports have decreased, even in the case of extreme sanctions, it will not change the oversupply pattern. The market tends to think that the near - end month spreads will strengthen, and take a wait - and - see attitude towards medium - term absolute prices. [6] - OPEC decided to increase the oil production increase in September and implement a production adjustment of 547,000 barrels per day starting from September. With OPEC's "guaranteed production commitment", oil prices dropped rapidly, and Brent crude oil fell below the $70 per barrel mark. [6] - Macroscopically, Trump postponed the effective time of the 15% - 41% reciprocal tariffs on goods exported to the US from 67 trading partners by one week, giving countries a window period for negotiation. The July non - farm payrolls data was disappointing, the market employment deteriorated, and the market urgently bet on a rate cut in September. [6] - Fundamentally, global oil stocks decreased slightly this week, about 2% higher than the same period last year. US commercial inventories increased significantly, the number of oil rigs decreased again, gasoline stocks decreased while diesel stocks increased. Global refinery profits declined this week, and the refinery operation is coming to an end. The absolute price of oil is expected to continue to fall after OPEC+'s statement, but there is still support in reality. It is expected to fall to $55 - 60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Data - From July 30 to August 5, 2025, WTI crude oil price dropped from $70.00 to $65.16, a decrease of $4.84; BRENT crude oil price dropped from $73.24 to $67.64, a decrease of $5.60; DUBAI crude oil price dropped from $70.85 to $69.56, a decrease of $1.29. [3] - During the same period, SC decreased by 5.50, OMAN decreased by 1.28, domestic gasoline decreased by 60.00, and Japan naphtha CFR decreased by 7.61. [3][14] 2. Daily News - Trump is preparing to impose new sanctions on Russia's shadow fleet. He will decide whether to impose sanctions on countries buying Russian energy after the meeting with Russia on Wednesday. There is a high possibility of imposing a 100% oil tariff on Russia, but the result is undetermined. [3][4] - The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending August 1 was - 4.233 million barrels, compared with an expected - 1.845 million barrels and a previous value of 1.539 million barrels. [4] 3. Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending July 25, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.157 million barrels per day to 2.698 million barrels per day, while domestic crude oil production increased by 41,000 barrels to 13.314 million barrels per day. [5] - In the same week, US commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.136 million barrels per day, an increase of 160,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week; commercial crude oil inventories increased by 7.698 million barrels to 427 million barrels, an increase of 1.84%. [5][6][16] - The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 238,000 barrels to 402.7 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.801 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 1.55%. [16]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows a mixed trend with the non-ferrous metal sector experiencing upward movement, particularly the Non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652), which has seen significant net subscriptions and inflows recently [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of August 6, the Non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) rose by 1.12%, with a net subscription of 3 million shares during the trading session [1]. - The ETF has attracted over 11 million CNY in net inflows over the past two days [1]. - Key component stocks of the ETF have shown varied performance, with Zijin Mining rising over 1% and other stocks like Northern Rare Earth and China Aluminum experiencing slight increases [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July fell short of expectations, with only 73,000 new jobs added, leading to significant downward revisions of previous months' data [2]. - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has increased to 80.3% following the disappointing employment figures [2]. Group 3: Sector Outlook - The non-ferrous metal sector is expected to benefit from the anticipated interest rate cuts, which may drive capital from dollar assets to industrial metals, supporting prices for copper and aluminum [3]. - The market's risk-averse sentiment, driven by economic concerns, is likely to enhance the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset, potentially initiating a new upward trend in gold prices [4]. - The combination of rate cut expectations, supply-demand dynamics, and government policies aimed at optimizing production capacity in the non-ferrous sector is expected to bolster the industry's growth [6]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The Non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) is highlighted as a leading option for investors looking to capitalize on the recovery and rate cut cycle, with a significant copper content of 31% [8][10]. - The ETF's structure and the underlying assets position it favorably for potential gains in both precious and industrial metals [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The weakening US employment market has increased the expectation of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and with global central banks continuing to buy gold, precious metal prices are likely to rise rather than fall. Investors are advised to buy on price dips. The support and resistance levels for London gold are around $3150 - 3250 and $3500 - 3700 respectively; for Shanghai gold, they are around 730 - 760 and 800 - 850 respectively; for London silver, they are around $34 - 38 and $37 - 40 respectively; for Shanghai silver, they are around 8500 - 8700 and 9100 - 9500 respectively [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: Closing price on 2025 - 08 - 05 was 781.42, trading volume was 206379.00, open interest was 214105.00, inventory (in ten - gram units) was 2547.00, and the basis (spot - futures) was 1.72 [1] - **Spot Shanghai Gold T + D**: Trading volume on 2025 - 08 - 05 was 26258.00, open interest was 208048.00 [1] - **Shanghai Silver**: Closing price on 2025 - 08 - 05 was 9192.00, trading volume was 513898.00, open interest was 371051.00, inventory (in ten - gram units) was 1157291.00, and the basis (spot - futures) was - 40.00 [1] - **Spot Shanghai Silver T + D**: Trading volume on 2025 - 08 - 05 was 270788.00, open interest was - 36146.00 [1] - **COMEX Gold Futures**: Closing price on 2025 - 08 - 05 was 3435.00, trading volume was 176453.00, open interest was 340930.00, inventory (in troy ounces) was 38800719.69 [1] - **COMEX Silver Futures**: Closing price on 2025 - 08 - 05 was 9052.00, trading volume was - 222180.00, open interest was 109684.00, inventory (in troy ounces) was 506602108.72 [1] - **London Gold Spot**: Price on 2025 - 08 - 05 was $3380.05 per ounce, SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 956.23 tons, iShare Gold ETF holdings were 449.31 tons [1] - **London Silver Spot**: Price on 2025 - 08 - 05 was $38.13 per ounce [1] - **Gold - Silver Price Ratio**: New York futures ratio was 91.56, London spot ratio was 90.37 [1] Important Information - The US Treasury plans to issue a large amount of debt this week, including $1000 billion in four - week Treasury bills, $850 billion in eight - week Treasury bills, $650 billion in 17 - week Treasury bills, $580 billion in three - year Treasury bonds, $420 billion in ten - year Treasury bonds, and $250 billion in 30 - year Treasury bonds. It has hinted that it will rely more on debt issuance to fill the fiscal deficit until at least 2026 [1] - The US July ISM Services PMI was only 50.1, with the employment index contracting and the price index reaching a new high since October 2022. Trump will decide on new Fed governors this week and will announce drug and chip tariffs within a week and significantly increase tariffs on India within 24 hours [1] - The US Treasury may issue about $5000 billion in the third quarter to replenish the cash account, which may cause a liquidity shock. Import tariffs have pushed up commodity prices, leading to a slight increase in the US consumer - end inflation rates in June. However, due to the possible significant downward revision of the number of new non - farm payrolls from May to July or far lower - than - expected figures, the US economy shows "stagflation" characteristics, increasing the expectation of Fed rate cuts in September, October, and December [1] - The European Central Bank paused rate cuts in July, keeping the deposit facility rate at 2%. The eurozone (Germany) July CPI annual rate was 2% (1.8%), higher than expected but flat compared to the previous value. Due to the continued recovery of the manufacturing PMI in the eurozone, Germany, and France in July, the market expects the ECB to cut rates about once before the end of 2025 [1] - The Bank of England cut the key rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% in June and continued to reduce its holdings of £1000 billion in government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025. The UK June CPI (core CPI) annual rate was 3.6% (3.7%), higher than expected and the previous value. The July S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing (Services) PMI was 48.2 (51.2), higher (lower) than expected and the previous value. Due to the consecutive negative monthly GDP growth rates from April to June, the expectation of a rate cut by the Bank of England on August 7 has increased, and it may cut rates 2 - 3 times before the end of 2025 [1] - The Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% in July and will start reducing the quarterly Treasury bond purchase scale from ¥4000 billion to ¥2000 billion in April 2026. The Japan (Tokyo) June (July) core CPI annual rate was 3.3% (2.9%), in line with expectations but lower than the previous value (lower than expected and the previous value), so there is still an expectation of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan before the end of 2025 [1] Trading Strategy - Due to the weakening US employment market increasing the Fed rate - cut expectation and global central banks' continuous gold purchases, precious metal prices are likely to rise. Investors are advised to buy on price dips. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The weakening US job market has increased expectations of a Fed rate cut, and with global central banks continuously buying gold, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. Investors are advised to build long positions when prices decline. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [1]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 782.50 yuan, with a trading volume of 271,828.00 and an open interest of 217,696.00. The inventory was 120.00 (in ten grams). The spot price - futures price (basis) was 3.29 yuan [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 9,075.00 yuan/kg, with a trading volume of 313,491.00 and an open interest of 367,528.00. The inventory was 1,174,273.00 (in ten grams). The spot price - futures price (basis) was -23.00 yuan [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 121.00, with a trading volume of 132,941.00 and an open interest of 334,342.00. The inventory was 38,793,596.75 (in troy ounces) [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 38.33, with a trading volume of 50,388.00 and an open interest of 125,217.00. The inventory was 506,311,741.34 (in troy ounces) [1]. - **London Gold Spot**: The price was 3,375.30 dollars/ounce, and the SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 956.23 tons [1]. - **London Silver Spot**: The price was 37.35 dollars/ounce, and the US iShare Silver ETF holdings were 22.60 tons [1]. Important Information - **US Treasury Bond Issuance**: The US Treasury plans to issue a total of $37.5 billion in various - term Treasury bonds this week, and has hinted that it will rely more on bond issuance to fill the fiscal budget deficit until at least 2026 [1]. - **US Economic Data**: The US July ISM Services PMI was only 50.1, with the employment index contracting and the price index reaching a new high since October 2022. The US 5 - 7 month new non - farm payrolls may be significantly revised down or far below expectations, showing a "stagflation" characteristic [1]. - **Central Bank Policies**: - The European Central Bank paused rate cuts in July, maintaining the deposit mechanism rate at 2%. The market expects the European Central Bank to cut rates about once before the end of 2025 [1]. - The Bank of England cut the key rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% in June and continued to reduce government bond holdings. The market expects the Bank of England to cut rates 2 - 3 times before the end of 2025 [1]. - The Bank of Japan maintained the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% in July and will reduce quarterly Treasury bond purchases from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen starting in April 2026. There is still an expectation of a rate hike before the end of 2025 [1].

南华贵金属日报: 降息预期回升 贵金属偏强 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年8月6日 【行情回顾】 周二贵金属市场震荡回升，最终SHFE黄金2510主力合约782.5元/克，+0.26%；SHFE白银2510合约收 9075元/千克，+0.82%。近期美经济数据不佳以及政府对美联储施压等影响，美联储9月降息预期回升是价 格上涨主因。美国7月ISM非制造业PMI为50.1，低于预期51.5，和前值50.8。美国总统特朗普表示美联储主 席是政治性的，鲍威尔降息太晚；可能很快会宣布新的美联储主席。 【本周关注】 本周数据清淡。事件方面，周四03：10，2027年FOMC票委、旧金山联储主席戴利发表讲话 ；22：00， 2027年FOMC票委、亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克线上参加佛罗里达州首席财务官协会有关货币政策的炉边谈 话；周五22：20，2025年FOMC票委、圣路易联储主席穆萨莱姆发表讲话。 周四19：00，英国央行公布利 率决议、会议纪要和货币政策报告 。 【南华观点】 中长线或偏多，短线仍主要由多头掌握局面，伦敦金有望延续回升，支撑3340 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent trends in gold prices and related ETFs indicate a shift in market sentiment towards gold as a safe-haven asset, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a weakening U.S. economy [3][4]. Group 1: Gold Market Trends - On August 5, COMEX gold futures rose by 0.25%, closing at $3435 per ounce [1]. - The Shanghai Gold ETF (159830) saw a slight increase of 0.23% as of August 6 [2]. - The Shanghai Gold ETF (159830) has a current size of 1.467 billion yuan and has experienced a net inflow of 6.99 million yuan over the past two days [3]. Group 2: Institutional Sentiment - Citigroup, known for its bearish stance on gold, has revised its three-month price forecast from $3300 to $3500 per ounce, indicating a shift in institutional sentiment towards gold [3]. - The expected trading price range for gold has also been adjusted from $3100-$3500 to $3300-$3600 per ounce [3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. second-quarter GDP data shows a slowdown in domestic demand, suggesting a weakening economy, which supports the case for potential interest rate cuts [4]. - The unexpected decline in the U.S. job market has increased expectations for a rate cut in September, further bolstering gold prices [4]. - The resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Quarles raises concerns about the independence of the Fed, which may also contribute to upward pressure on gold prices [4].

Gold Market - Gold prices have risen significantly, reaching a high of $3,390, the highest in two weeks, driven by weak non-farm payroll data and increased expectations for interest rate cuts [1] - Total gold demand for the first half of 2025 is projected to rise to 2,384 tons, marking the strongest performance for the first half since 2013, with investment demand exceeding 1,000 tons and ETF inflows of 397 tons [1] - Jewelry demand has decreased by 18% to 782 tons, while retail investment increased by 38 tons to 636 tons [1] - Analysts suggest that the softening U.S. labor market is contributing to rising expectations for interest rate cuts, which in turn supports higher gold prices [1] - Technical analysis indicates a strong bullish trend for gold, with a focus on the $3,370 level as a key support and resistance line [1] Oil Market - President Trump's threat to impose a 100% secondary tariff on Russian oil buyers if a ceasefire agreement is not reached could lead to a significant supply shortage, as current Russian oil exports stand at 7 million barrels per day [3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve has risen to 92.4% for September, which is expected to boost oil demand and support higher oil prices [3] - Technical analysis shows that oil prices fell to a low of $65, with a potential for a reversal if prices stabilize above this level [3] Copper Market - Copper prices experienced a significant drop last week and have been trading sideways with a weak performance, indicating potential downside risks [5] - A break below the $4.30 level could test support at $4.21, while resistance is noted at $4.47 [5] Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 index has been trading within a narrow range, failing to break above 40,632, indicating a weak trend with a higher probability of decline [6] - Key support levels to watch include 40,000 and 39,500, as the index has been in a corrective phase since July 24 [6]

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年8月6日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：特朗普表示本周决定美联储新理事，金价震荡回升；美国三大股指全线 收跌，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美债收益率多数上涨，10年期美债收益率涨 1.17个基点报4.208%；美元指数涨0.01%报98.76，离岸人民币对美元小幅贬值报 7.1886；COMEX黄金期货涨0.25%报3435美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货782.5，现货778.8，基差-3.7，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单36009千克，增加120千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方；偏多 5、主 ...

Group 1: Market Strategy - The short-term narrative of a strong US dollar has come to an end, with a focus on previously suppressed Hong Kong stocks and precious metals, while maintaining a balanced allocation in US stocks and emphasizing technology growth [1][9]. - The market is expected to shift back to a "weak dollar" narrative, benefiting precious metals like gold and silver, which have been under pressure from a strong dollar [8][9]. Group 2: Company Analysis - Cangge Mining - Cangge Mining's performance in H1 2025 was primarily driven by Jilong Copper, with a revenue of 1.678 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.74%, and a net profit of 1.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.80% [2][11]. - The company has a cash dividend payout ratio of 87.14%, reflecting a strong commitment to shareholder returns, with a cash dividend of 10 yuan per 10 shares [12][13]. - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are 2.03, 2.55, and 3.23 yuan, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 24, 19, and 15 respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [12][13]. Group 3: Industry Insights - Nonferrous Metals - The price of potassium chloride has risen significantly due to large contracts and production cuts by major overseas manufacturers, with an average selling price of 2,845 yuan per ton, a year-on-year increase of 25.57% [12][13]. - The lithium carbonate market is currently in a bottoming phase, with prices fluctuating between 60,000 to 80,000 yuan per ton, leading to a revenue decline of 57.90% for the company's lithium carbonate business [12][13]. Group 4: Market Trends - North Exchange - The North Exchange market is experiencing a narrow fluctuation trend, with a focus on themes such as military industry, robotics, and new materials for potential rotation opportunities [3][15]. - The North Exchange A-share trading volume reached 199.7 billion yuan, with the North Exchange 50 index closing at 1,436.78, up 0.25% [15][30]. Group 5: Macro Economic Policy - The "anti-involution" policy initiated by the Central Economic Committee aims to address chaotic competition in various industries, which is expected to have a significant impact on the current low PPI prices and influence both equity and bond markets [4][19]. - The PPI is anticipated to stabilize and recover in the second half of the year, supported by the implementation of more proactive fiscal policies and moderate monetary policies [20][21].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Domestically, the economy shows downward pressure as the manufacturing PMI declines. It enters a policy observation period, and incremental policies may be introduced if economic data continues to weaken. Overseas, it's an inflation observation period. Despite a hawkish speech from Powell, the Fed's core targets are employment and inflation. With poor non - farm data and high inflation in the US service sector, there may be fluctuations in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, without new shock factors, it is expected to be supported in the 7.15 - 7.23 range, with a likely central anchor at 7.20 [4]. - The A - share market is expected to show a structural and volatile trend. The adjustment of US tariff policies may reduce risk appetite [6]. - For the bond market, there is a mild price repair. Although the stock market is strong, the bond market is at most suppressed, and a band - trading strategy is recommended [7]. - For the shipping industry, the container shipping index is expected to be volatile and may decline in the medium - term [9]. - In the precious metals market, due to the increased expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, gold and silver are expected to be strong in the medium - to - long - term and are mainly controlled by bulls in the short - term [11]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, copper may be volatile and weak; aluminum is expected to be under pressure and volatile; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile; zinc is expected to rebound after reaching the bottom; nickel and stainless steel are expected to be volatile in the short - term; tin may rise slightly; and the recommended strategies vary for each metal [13][15][16][17][18][19]. - In the black metals market, steel products' prices have limited upward and downward space; iron ore is expected to be strong; coking coal and coke may have increased price fluctuations, and the medium - to - long - term trend is not pessimistic; silicon iron and silicon manganese are not overly pessimistic despite the decline in sentiment [21][23][26][27]. - In the energy and chemical market, crude oil is under supply pressure and has limited upward space; LPG is in a loose supply situation; PX - TA can be considered for expanding processing fees at low prices; MEG - bottle chips are expected to be range - bound; methanol's fundamentals are weak in the short - term; PP is driven up by coal prices; PE needs to wait for demand recovery; PVC's pricing returns to the industry, and short - selling is recommended; pure benzene and styrene are expected to be volatile; fuel oil is weak; low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended for short - selling; asphalt is expected to be weakly volatile; urea is expected to be weakly volatile; glass, soda ash, and caustic soda show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength; pulp is expected to be volatile after a decline; and propylene's price in the Shandong market has a slight increase [31][33][35][37][39][42][45][47][48][50][51][53][54][56][58][59][60][61][66]. - In the agricultural products market, for live pigs, short - selling at high prices is recommended; for oilseeds, long - buying in the far - month contracts is recommended [67][69]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Market information includes policies on financial support for new - type industrialization in China, the US service - sector PMI causing concerns about stagflation, Trump's statements on tariffs and the Fed, and the high proportion of seriously overdue consumer loans in the US [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The previous trading day's RMB exchange - rate performance shows a decline in the on - shore RMB against the US dollar. Trump's tariff policies and the decline in the US non - manufacturing index are important factors. Without new shock factors, the short - term exchange rate is expected to be supported in the 7.15 - 7.23 range [3][4]. Stock Index - The stock index continued to rise yesterday, and the small - cap stocks were strong. The A - share market is expected to show a structural and volatile trend due to policy support and the adjustment of US tariff policies [5][6]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury futures fluctuated upward, and the price is in a mild repair state. The bond market is at most suppressed by the strong stock market, and a band - trading strategy is recommended [7]. Shipping - The container shipping index futures opened low and fluctuated. The spot prices of major shipping companies have been continuously reduced, and the futures price is expected to be volatile and may decline in the medium - term [8][9]. Commodities Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: The price of precious metals rose due to the increased expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. They are expected to be strong in the medium - to - long - term and are mainly controlled by bulls in the short - term [11]. - **Copper**: The copper price rebounded slightly, mainly to correct the previous decline. It may be volatile and weak in the short - term, and investors are advised to hold cash and wait [13][14]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be under pressure and volatile; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile, and an arbitrage strategy can be considered when the price difference is large [15][16]. - **Zinc**: Zinc is expected to rebound after reaching the bottom. The supply is gradually changing from tight to surplus, and the demand is weak in the traditional off - season [16][17]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: They are expected to be volatile in the short - term. The fundamentals of nickel have no obvious changes, and the supply of nickel - iron is supported by the expected increase in steel - mill production in August. The stability of the stainless - steel price needs to be tested [18]. - **Tin**: Tin rose slightly, showing strong resilience. The supply problem has not been resolved, and the demand weakness has not fully affected the price. Inventory hedging can be considered at an appropriate time [19]. Black Metals - **Steel Products**: Steel products' prices have limited upward and downward space. Although the export orders have weakened, the market pressure is temporarily relieved, and the coal - mine inspection and military - parade limit - production expectations provide support [20][21]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore is expected to be strong. The short - term fundamentals are good, and the supply is neutral while the demand is expected to remain high. The price is expected to break through the 800 - yuan pressure level [22][23]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke rose strongly. The "anti - involution" policy may lead to increased price fluctuations, and the medium - to - long - term trend is not pessimistic. It is not recommended for non - spot - handling investors to participate in the 09 - contract delivery game [25][26]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: Although the sentiment has declined, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. The supply is increasing, and the demand is supported by high steel - mill profits in the short - term, but the long - term demand is uncertain [27][28]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil price fell overnight, and the market is under supply pressure. The seasonal demand is weakening, and the upward space is limited [30][31]. - **LPG**: LPG is in a loose supply situation. The domestic supply is abundant, and the demand has little change. The price is expected to be under pressure [32][33]. - **PX - PTA**: The PX - TA price has fallen. The current TA processing fee is at a historical low, and there are many expected TA maintenance plans. It is recommended to expand the processing fee at low prices [34][35]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The "anti - involution" premium has been squeezed out, and the fundamentals have insufficient driving force. They are expected to be range - bound [36][37]. - **Methanol**: The "anti - involution" sentiment has subsided, and the methanol market has returned to fundamentals, which are weak in the short - term. Attention should be paid to downstream resistance and port - to - inland price differences [38][39]. - **PP**: PP's price rose driven by coal prices. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak, so the market is in a weak pattern [40][42]. - **PE**: PE's price was driven up by the coal - market. The current demand is weak, and the inventory is high, but the demand is expected to recover in August [43][45]. - **PVC**: PVC's pricing has returned to the industry. The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the inventory is rising. Short - selling is recommended [46][47]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: Pure benzene and styrene are expected to be volatile. The supply and demand of pure benzene are both increasing, and the supply of styrene is expected to increase in August and September [48][50]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil is weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended for short - selling due to weak supply, demand, and high inventory [51][53]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt is expected to be weakly volatile, following the cost - end. The supply has increased, but the demand is affected by weather and funds. The medium - to - long - term demand is expected to improve [53][54]. - **Urea**: Urea is under pressure. Although the export demand provides some support, the agricultural demand is weakening [55][56]. - **Glass, Soda Ash & Caustic Soda**: They show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Soda ash has a strong supply and weak demand; glass is in a weak - balance state; and caustic soda may start the delivery logic in August [57][58][59][60]. - **Paper Pulp**: Paper pulp is expected to be volatile after a decline. The supply and inventory are high, and the demand has no obvious long - term increase, but there is seasonal support in August [61][62]. - **Propylene**: The price of propylene in the Shandong market has a slight increase. The supply is loose, and the demand has little change. The cost is affected by multiple factors [64][66]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The spot price of live pigs is stable, and the supply exceeds demand. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [67]. - **Oilseeds**: The outer - market US soybeans are weak, and the inner - market soybeans are pricing the far - month supply gap. It is recommended to long - buy in the far - month contracts [68][69].