交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 多空交织，豆粕维持震荡 （豆粕周报1.26-1.30） 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 | 项目 | 概况 | 驱动 | 下周预期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 天气 | 巴西大豆产区天气短期正常 | 偏空 | 巴西大豆产区天气短期良 | | | | | 好。中性或偏空 | | 进口成本 | 美豆维持震荡，中国采购美 | 中性 | 进口成本预计震荡偏弱，中 | | | 豆和南美大豆丰产交互影响 | | 性或偏空 | | 油厂压榨 | 豆粕需求短期回升，油厂压 | 中性 | 需求短期良好，油厂开机预 | | | 榨量回归高位 | | 计维持偏高位，偏空 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Overall Outlook**: Under the expectation of a bumper soybean harvest in South America, soybean meal is in a weak and volatile state. The market is influenced by factors such as the weather in South American soybean - growing areas, Sino - US trade agreements, and domestic supply and demand [1][10]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the short - term, it will maintain a range - bound pattern. The end - of - year demand peak and spot price premium support the futures price, but news is mixed. The long - term trend depends on the implementation of Sino - US trade agreements and the weather in South American soybean - growing areas [10]. - **Soybeans**: Domestically, soybeans are also in a range - bound state. The spot price is strong, and short - term demand is good, but the impact of Sino - US trade agreements and the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans limit the upward space [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Tips No content provided in the given text. 3.2 Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations have reached a preliminary agreement, which is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of Chinese purchases and US soybean weather are still uncertain. - Domestic imported soybean arrivals will continue to decline in the first quarter, and soybean meal will return to a range - bound state. - Low pig - breeding profits lead to low expectations for pig replenishment, but soybean meal demand in January is good, and the price is expected to be supported [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - **Soybean Meal**: - **Positive Factors**: Sino - US trade agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; domestic soybean meal inventory in oil mills is not under pressure; there are still uncertainties in South American soybean - growing area weather. - **Negative Factors**: The total amount of imported soybeans arriving in January remains relatively high; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [14]. - **Soybeans**: - **Positive Factors**: Rising imported soybean costs support the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports prices. - **Negative Factors**: The Sino - US trade agreement may lead to an increase in Chinese purchases of US soybeans; the increase in domestic new - season soybean production suppresses price expectations [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2016 to 2025, the global soybean harvest area, output, and total supply generally show an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuates [22]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: In the past six months, US soybean planting area, yield, and output have changed slightly, and the期末库存 and new - bean exports also show certain trends [23]. - **US Soybean Planting and Growth Progress**: In 2024, the US soybean planting, growth, and harvesting progress are compared with the previous year and the five - year average, showing different progress rates at different times [24][25][26]. - **Brazilian and Argentine Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress**: In 2024/25 and 2025/26, the planting and harvesting progress of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans are compared with the previous year and the five - year average [27][28][29][30][31]. 3.5 Position Data No content provided in the given text. 3.6 Soybean and Soybean Meal Fundamentals (Supply - Demand Inventory Structure) - **US Soybean Market**: The January USDA report has a slightly negative impact. US soybeans are in a weak and volatile state due to the expected increase in Brazilian soybean output. The weather in South American soybean - growing areas and the implementation of Sino - US trade agreements affect the market [35]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal Industry Chain**: - **Imported Soybean Arrivals**: The arrivals of imported soybeans are at a low level at the beginning of the year, and the year - on - year figure has recently decreased [38]. - **Oil Mill Pressing and Inventory**: Oil mill soybean inventory is at a high level, and soybean meal inventory has declined from a high level. The soybean crushing volume has returned to a high level, and the soybean meal output in December increased year - on - year [39][40]. - **Soybean Meal Transaction**: The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have declined from a high level, and the备货 demand is expected to remain good [42]. - **Pig - Breeding Inventory**: Pig inventory has increased slightly year - on - year, sow inventory has decreased year - on - year and slightly month - on - month. Pig prices have fluctuated slightly recently, and piglet prices have remained weak [48][50]. 3.7 Technical Analysis - **Soybeans**: Futures are oscillating upwards. KDJ and MACD indicators show that the market is in a technical adjustment stage, and the future trend depends on new guidance [66]. - **Soybean Meal**: Futures are bottoming out and rebounding. KDJ and MACD indicators show that the market is in a technical rebound stage, and the future trend depends on US soybeans and new guidance [69]. 3.8 Next Week's Concerns - **Most Important**: The growth and harvesting weather in Brazilian soybean - growing areas, the implementation of Sino - US trade agreements, and the arrival of imported soybeans in China and the operation of oil mills [71]. - **Second - Most Important**: Domestic soybean meal demand, domestic oil mill inventory, and downstream purchases [72]. - **Less Important**: Macroeconomic factors and the situations of the Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Palestine conflicts [72]. 4. Trading Strategies - **Soybean Meal**: - **Futures**: US soybeans will fluctuate below the 1100 mark in the short - term, and soybean meal will maintain a range - bound pattern. The M2605 contract will fluctuate between 2700 and 2900 in the short - term, and short - term range trading is recommended. - **Options**: Sell slightly out - of - the - money put options [17][19]. - **Soybeans**: - **Futures**: The A2605 contract of soybeans will fluctuate between 4300 and 4500, and short - term range trading is recommended. - **Options**: Sell slightly out - of - the - money put options [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The soybean meal M2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2700 - 2760. The market is influenced by the decline of US soybeans, the approaching harvest of Brazilian soybeans, and the interaction between demand improvement and US soybean trends. The short - term outlook is neutral, with a mix of positive and negative factors [9]. - The soybean A2605 is projected to fluctuate between 4280 - 4380. The market is affected by the oscillation of US soybeans, the auction of state - reserved imported soybeans, and the interaction of Sino - US trade agreements and Brazilian soybean imports. The short - term outlook is also neutral [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement on Sino - US tariff negotiations is a short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of Chinese purchases and US soybean weather remain uncertain. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China will continue to decline in Q1. The soybean inventory of oil mills remains high in January. With normal weather in South American soybean - growing areas, soybean meal has returned to range - bound trading [13]. - Reduced profits in China's pig - farming industry have led to low expectations for pig restocking. However, the demand for soybean meal remains strong in January, supporting price expectations. The interaction between the influence of US soybeans and the recovery of soybean meal demand maintains the range - bound pattern [13]. - The high inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, the potential for weather speculation in US soybean - growing areas, and the impact of the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement keep soybean meal in a short - term range - bound state, waiting for clear US soybean production and further Sino - US trade negotiation results [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: The preliminary Sino - US trade agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; the inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills is not under pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of South American soybean - growing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remains high in January; with normal weather, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [14]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean harvest weather and the follow - up of the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement [14]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations [15]. - Bearish factors: The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses price expectations [15]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From January 5th to 13th, the average transaction price of soybean meal ranged from 3138 to 3188 yuan/ton, and the transaction volume varied from 8.1 to 116.13 tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal was between 2480 and 2570 yuan/ton, and the transaction volume was mostly 0, with a small amount on January 8th and 12th. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal gradually increased [16]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices**: From January 6th to 13th, the prices of soybean futures (both No. 1 and No. 2), soybean meal futures (both near - term and far - term), and soybean and soybean meal spot prices all fluctuated [18]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: From December 31st to January 13th, the warehouse receipts of soybean No. 1, No. 2, and soybean meal changed. The warehouse receipts of soybean No. 1 decreased overall, while the warehouse receipts of soybean No. 2 remained at 400, and the warehouse receipts of soybean meal had some small - scale fluctuations [20]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 show changes in harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory. Generally, the total supply and demand of soybeans have been increasing, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio has fluctuated [32][33]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: The planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023 to 2026 shows that the progress in different years and regions varies, affected by factors such as weather and planting plans [34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from June 2025 to January 2026 show changes in US soybean planting area, yield per unit, output, end - of - period inventory, new - bean exports, and crushing volume, as well as the output of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [44]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival Volume**: The arrival volume of imported soybeans from 2020 to 2025 shows monthly fluctuations, with an overall upward trend in some years. In December 2025, the arrival volume increased slightly compared to the previous period and was generally higher year - on - year [47]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term, influenced by factors such as the expected high yield of South American soybeans, the implementation of the China - US trade agreement, and the weather in soybean - growing regions [10][13]. - The soybean market is also in a state of shock, with the price affected by China's soybean procurement, South American soybean production, and domestic supply and demand [11]. - The short - to medium - term trends of the US soybean futures market are mainly driven by the planting weather in South American soybean - growing regions and the implementation of the China - US trade negotiation agreement [35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Tips - The soybean meal market is affected by multiple factors, including the expected high yield of South American soybeans, the implementation of the China - US trade agreement, and the demand for soybean meal. It is expected to remain volatile [10][13]. - The soybean market is influenced by China's soybean procurement, South American soybean production, and domestic supply and demand, also in a state of shock [11]. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement in the China - US tariff negotiation is a short - term positive for US soybeans, but there are still uncertainties in China's procurement volume and US soybean weather. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China will continue to decline in the first quarter, and the soybean meal market will return to range - bound oscillation [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits leads to low expectations for pig restocking, but the demand for soybean meal in January remains strong, supporting the price [13]. - The domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory remains at a relatively high level, and the soybean meal market will maintain range - bound oscillation, awaiting further guidance on US soybean production and the follow - up of the China - US trade negotiation [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns 3.3.1 Bullish Factors for Soybean Meal - The preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation is a short - term positive for US soybeans [14]. - There is no pressure on the domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory [14]. - There are still uncertainties in the weather in South American soybean - growing regions [14]. 3.3.2 Bearish Factors for Soybean Meal - The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remains at a relatively high level in January [14]. - With normal weather, South American soybeans are expected to have a high yield [14]. 3.3.3 Bullish Factors for Soybeans - The increase in the cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic soybean market [15]. - The expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans supports the price [15]. 3.3.4 Bearish Factors for Soybeans - The preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation leads to an increase in China's procurement of US soybeans [15]. - The increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectations of beans [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Weather**: The short - term weather in Brazilian soybean - growing regions is normal, which is bearish. In the future, it is expected to be good, with a neutral or bearish impact [9]. - **Import Cost**: The US soybean price remains volatile. Affected by China's procurement of US soybeans and the expected high yield of South American soybeans, the import cost is expected to be weakly volatile, with a neutral or bearish impact [9]. - **Oil - Mill Pressing**: The demand for soybean meal has improved in the short term, but the oil - mill pressing volume has decreased from a high level. The demand is expected to continue to rise in the short term, and the oil - mill operation is expected to remain at a relatively high level, with a bearish impact [9]. - **Transaction**: The enthusiasm for downstream long - term stockpiling has increased, and the market transaction is expected to continue to rise, with a neutral or bullish impact [9]. - **Oil - Mill Inventory**: The oil - mill soybean meal inventory remains at a high level. With the upstream operation remaining at a relatively high level, the inventory is expected to decline from a high level, with a bullish impact [9]. 3.5 Position Data - For soybean meal, the main short positions have increased, and the funds have flowed out, which is bearish [10]. - For soybeans, the main long positions have decreased, and the funds have flowed out, which is bullish [11]. 3.6 Foreign Soybean Supply and Demand Situation - The impact of the December USDA report is relatively neutral. The US soybean market is weakly volatile in the short term, affected by the implementation of the China - US trade negotiation agreement. The high yield of US soybeans and the good planting weather in Brazil suppress the market [35]. - The Fed's interest rate cut in December is a short - term positive for commodities. The US soybean futures market will maintain oscillation in the short term, and the planting weather in South American soybean - growing regions and the implementation of the China - US trade negotiation agreement are the main drivers of the short - to medium - term trends [35]. - The market focus is on the changes in the planting and growing weather in South American soybean - growing regions and the implementation of the China - US trade negotiation agreement. The US soybean market may maintain oscillation above the 1000 - point mark in the short term, awaiting further guidance [35]. 3.7 Domestic Soybean Meal Industry Chain 3.7.1 Imported Soybean Arrival The arrival volume of imported soybeans in December increased slightly, with an overall year - on - year increase [38]. 3.7.2 Oil - Mill Pressing and Inventory - The oil - mill soybean inventory has declined from a high level, while the soybean meal inventory remains at a high level [39]. - The oil - mill soybean crushing volume has declined from a high level, and the soybean meal production in November increased year - on - year [41]. 3.7.3 Soybean Meal Transaction The domestic mid - and downstream procurement has rebounded from a low level, and the pick - up volume remains at a relatively high level [47]. 3.7.4 Pig - Farming Inventory - The pig inventory is on the rise, the sow inventory is flat year - on - year, and it has declined slightly month - on - month [49]. - The pig price has fluctuated slightly recently, and the piglet price remains weak [51]. 3.8 Market Structure of Meal Products - The soybean meal futures market remains volatile, the spot market is relatively strong, and the spot premium remains at a high level [60]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference between the 2605 contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal has rebounded from a low level [62]. 3.9 Technical Analysis 3.9.1 Soybean Technical Analysis - The soybean futures market has risen and then fallen, affected by the US soybean trend and the relatively strong domestic soybean spot market [67]. - The KDJ indicator has declined from a high level, and the short - term technical indicators have entered a stage of oscillatory consolidation. The high position of the indicators limits the further upward space [67]. - The MACD has oscillated and rebounded at a low level, and the short - term has entered a technical rebound stage, but the red energy has narrowed. Whether the upward trend can continue remains to be observed [67]. 3.9.2 Soybean Meal Technical Analysis - The soybean meal futures market has risen and then fallen, affected by the uncertainty in the implementation of the China - US trade agreement and the short - term increase in domestic demand [69]. - The KDJ indicator has declined from a high level, and the short - term has entered a technical oscillatory consolidation stage. The medium - to high position of the indicators limits the rebound space [69]. - The MACD has oscillated and rebounded at a low level, and the short - term has entered a technical rebound stage, but the red energy has narrowed. Whether the rebound can continue remains to be observed [69]. 3.10 Next Week's Focus Points - The most important factors are the growth and harvesting weather in Brazilian soybean - growing regions, the implementation of the China - US trade agreement, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans in China [72]. - The secondary important factors are the domestic demand for soybean meal, the inventory of domestic oil mills, and downstream procurement [73]. - Other important factors include macro - economic factors and the conflicts in Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Palestine [73].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal M2605 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2740 - 2800. The market is influenced by the interaction of U.S. soybean trends and demand improvement, with news being mixed and short - term oscillation likely [9]. - The soybean A2605 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 4200 - 4300. The market is affected by the execution of the China - U.S. trade agreement and the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans, with the price supported by the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans [11]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Hints No information provided in the report. 2. Recent News - The preliminary China - U.S. tariff negotiation agreement is short - term positive for U.S. soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases and U.S. soybean weather are still uncertain. The U.S. market is oscillating above the thousand - point mark [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in December, while the soybean inventory of oil mills remained high. The planting and growth weather of South American soybeans is relatively normal, and soybean meal has returned to range - bound trading [13]. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal rebounded from a low level in December, supporting price expectations [13]. - The high inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, the potential for weather speculation in U.S. soybean - producing areas, and the impact of the preliminary China - U.S. trade negotiation agreement have kept soybean meal in a short - term range - bound state [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - **Long factors**: The preliminary China - U.S. trade negotiation agreement is short - term positive for U.S. soybeans; the inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal is not under pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of U.S. and South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Short factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained high in December; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [15]. Soybeans - **Long factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations [16]. - **Short factors**: The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses price expectations [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 3050, with a basis of 296, indicating a premium over futures. The inventory of oil mills' soybean meal is 117.02 million tons, a 0.22% increase from last week and a 71.18% increase from the same period last year [9]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4220, with a basis of - 23, indicating a discount to futures. The inventory of oil mills' soybeans is 710.25 million tons, an 8.53% increase from last week and a 19.48% increase from the same period last year [11]. - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2015 - 2024, the harvest area, output, and total supply generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated [33]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2015 - 2024, the harvest area, output, and import volume generally increased, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [34]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main short positions decreased, and funds flowed in [9]. - **Soybeans**: The main long positions decreased, and funds flowed in [11]. 6. Soybean and Soybean Meal Market Conditions - **Price and Transaction**: The price of soybean meal futures rose and then fell, while the spot price was relatively stable, with a high premium. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly [17][19][24]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of soybeans and soybean meal changed over time, with the warehouse receipts of soybean No. 1 and soybean No. 2 showing different trends [21]. - **Supply - Side Conditions**: The soybean crushing volume of oil mills decreased from a high level, and the soybean meal output in November increased year - on - year. The inventory of oil mills' soybeans decreased from a high level, while the soybean meal inventory remained high [26][49]. - **Demand - Side Conditions**: The procurement of domestic downstream enterprises rebounded from a low level, and the提货 volume remained at a relatively high level. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills decreased from a high level, and the stocking demand had a good outlook [28][53]. - **International Market**: The planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in the U.S., Brazil, and Argentina in different years were provided, as well as the monthly supply - demand reports of the USDA in the past six months [35][40][45]. - **Livestock Market**: The pig inventory showed an upward trend, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year and slightly decreased month - on - month. The pig price fluctuated slightly recently, and the piglet price remained weak [57][59].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market is expected to be volatile and moderately strong in the short term, but there is no obvious driving force in the medium - term logic. Conservative investors are advised to consider partial hedging at high prices for near - month contracts. The oil market is expected to be weakly volatile under the short - term expectation of loose supply and demand. Pre - holiday stockpiling is recommended to replenish inventory appropriately at low prices, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the US biofuel policy. [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - China purchased at least 8 million tons of US soybeans in 2025, approaching the 12 - million - ton procurement target. The uncertainty of the subsequent procurement rhythm due to the lack of a formal trade agreement between China and the US is regarded as an important factor suppressing soybean prices. [1] - In November 2025, the US soybean crushing volume was 6.615 million short tons (221 million bushels), lower than the revised 7.09 million short tons (236 million bushels) in October but higher than 6.3 million short tons (210 million bushels) in November last year. [1] - Near - month contracts are affected by policy rumors. Before the state reserve release, the price is expected to be strong, but the domestic short - term soybean meal spot inventory is high. Once the reserve release occurs after the holiday, the premium may quickly disappear. [1] Oils - In October, the available capacity of US renewable diesel remained stable at 4.989 billion gallons per year. The use of soybean oil as a raw material for biofuel production decreased by 47 million pounds to 1.006 billion pounds, reaching a 6 - month low. As of the end of November, the US soybean oil inventory soared to 2.164 billion pounds, an 18 - month high. [2] - Due to strong monthly production offsetting the moderate growth of exports, Malaysia's palm oil inventory in December is expected to rise to the highest level in nearly seven years. [2] - After the holiday, the oil sector declined significantly. The reasons include the sharp increase in US soybean oil inventory, uncertainty in biofuel demand, the pressure of rising palm oil inventory, and the possibility of resuming Canadian rapeseed imports. [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The price of domestic soybean meal is affected by the interaction of the US soybean market and domestic demand improvement. At the end of the year, the demand gradually enters the peak season, and the spot price premium supports the market. However, the news is mixed, and the short - term may maintain a volatile pattern. The price of US soybeans is also affected by factors such as China's soybean procurement and South American soybean production prospects [8][9]. - The price of domestic soybeans is supported by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand. However, the bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the increase in domestic production of new - season soybeans suppress the price expectations [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement on China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases and the US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in December, while the soybean inventory of oil mills remained at a relatively high level. The planting and growth weather of South American soybeans is relatively normal, and soybean meal has returned to range - bound trading [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - breeding profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has rebounded from a low level in December, supporting the price expectation. The interaction between the influence of US soybeans and the rebound in soybean meal demand has led to a return to the range - bound pattern [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. There is still a possibility of speculation about the weather in the US soybean - producing areas, and the preliminary agreement on China - US trade negotiations has an impact. In the short term, soybean meal will maintain a range - bound pattern, waiting for the clarification of US soybean production and further guidance on the follow - up of China - US trade negotiations [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - **Long factors**: The preliminary agreement on China - US trade negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills is not under pressure; the weather in the US and South American soybean - producing areas is still uncertain [14]. - **Short factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained at a relatively high level in December; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [15]. - **Current main logic**: The market focuses on the impact of the US soybean harvest weather and the follow - up of the preliminary China - US trade agreement [15]. Soybeans - **Long factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans supports the price expectation [16]. - **Short factors**: The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of beans [16]. - **Current main logic**: The market focuses on the impact of the US soybean weather and the China - US trade tariff game [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 3050, with a basis of 276, showing a premium over the futures. The inventory of oil mills is 113.71 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.66% and a year - on - year increase of 95.11% [9]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4140, with a basis of - 16, showing a discount to the futures. The soybean inventory of oil mills is 722.36 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.32% and a year - on - year increase of 24.85% [11]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed in [9]. - **Soybeans**: The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed in [11]. 6. Views and Strategies Soybean Meal - The M2605 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 2720 - 2780. The market is affected by multiple factors such as the US soybean market, domestic demand, and inventory, and is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term [9]. Soybeans - The A2605 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 4120 - 4220. The price is supported by the cost of imported soybeans and domestic demand, but is suppressed by the bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the increase in domestic production [11].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report 1. **Viewpoints and Strategies for Soybean Meal** - Soybean meal M2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2740 - 2800. The market is currently neutral due to a combination of factors such as the performance of US soybeans, the demand for domestic soybean meal, and inventory levels [9]. 2. **Viewpoints and Strategies for Soybeans** - Soybean A2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4080 - 4180. The market is also neutral, influenced by the US - China trade agreement, South American soybean planting weather, and the supply - demand situation of domestic soybeans [11]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. **Daily Hints** - Not provided in the report 2. **Recent News** - The preliminary agreement in the China - US tariff negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases from the US and the US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US soybean market is expected to be relatively strong above the 1000 - point mark in the short term [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China has decreased in December, but the soybean inventory of oil mills remains high. The planting and growing weather of South American soybeans is relatively normal, and the soybean meal market has returned to range - bound fluctuations [13]. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking. However, the demand for soybean meal has rebounded from a low level in December, which supports the price of soybean meal. The market is affected by both the performance of US soybeans and the recovery of soybean meal demand [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains high. There is still a possibility of speculation about the weather in the US soybean - producing areas, and the preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation has an impact. The soybean meal market is expected to remain range - bound in the short term, waiting for more information on US soybean production and the follow - up of the China - US trade negotiation [13]. 3. **Long and Short Concerns** **Soybean Meal** - **Long Factors**: The preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills is not under pressure; the weather in the US and South American soybean - producing areas is still uncertain [14]. - **Short Factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained high in December; if the weather is normal, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [15]. **Soybeans** - **Long Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [16]. - **Short Factors**: Brazilian soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest, and China has increased its purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectations of beans [16]. 4. **Fundamental Data** **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data** - From December 18 to 26, the transaction prices and volumes of soybean meal fluctuated, while the rapeseed meal had no transactions during this period. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also fluctuated slightly [17]. **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Price Data** - From December 19 to 26, the prices of soybean futures, soybean meal futures, and spot prices all showed certain fluctuations. The spot price of soybean meal was generally higher than the futures price [19]. **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data** - From December 17 to 26, the warehouse receipts of soybean No. 1, soybean No. 2, and soybean meal changed to varying degrees [21]. **Soybean Meal Spot Price Data** - The spot price of soybean meal fluctuates with the futures price, and the premium of the spot price over the futures price has a slight fluctuation [24]. **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Data** - The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets of global and domestic soybeans from 2015 to 2024, including data on harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [33][34]. **Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress Data** - The report provides the planting and harvesting progress data of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023 - 2026, including the planting rate, harvesting rate, emergence rate, flowering rate, pod - setting rate, leaf - falling rate, and other indicators [35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44]. **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Report Data** - The report provides the USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from May to December 2025, including data on planting area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, new - bean exports, and crushing volume of the US, as well as the output data of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [45]. **Other Fundamental Data** - The weekly export inspection volume of US soybeans has declined both month - on - month and year - on - year [46]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in December has increased slightly, with an overall year - on - year increase [48]. 5. **Position Data** - Not provided in the report

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal M2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2740 - 2800. The domestic soybean meal is influenced by multiple factors, with a neutral view in the short - term and a tendency to fluctuate weakly [8][9]. - The soybean A2605 is predicted to fluctuate between 4080 - 4180. Domestic soybeans are affected by various factors such as US - China trade and import volumes, with a neutral view in the short - term [10][11]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Tips - The soybean meal M2605 fluctuates in the 2740 - 2800 range. Influenced by factors like US - China trade and South American weather, it has a neutral outlook. The basis is positive, but inventory, the position of the price relative to the 20 - day moving average, and the main positions are bearish. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [9]. - The soybean A2605 fluctuates between 4080 - 4180. Affected by US - China trade and import volumes, it has a neutral view. The basis is neutral, while inventory, the price position relative to the 20 - day moving average, and the main positions are bearish [11]. 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement on US - China tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but there are uncertainties in the quantity of Chinese purchases and US soybean weather. The domestic import soybean arrival volume decreased in December, with high soybean inventory in oil mills. The demand for soybean meal rebounded at a low level in December, and soybean meal is expected to return to range - bound fluctuations [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors For Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: The preliminary agreement on US - China trade negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans; there is no pressure on the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills; there are still uncertainties in the weather of US and South American soybean production areas [14]. - Bearish factors: The total arrival volume of domestic imported soybeans remained high in December; South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest under normal weather conditions [15]. For Soybeans - Bullish factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [16]. - Bearish factors: The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price of soybeans [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - The global soybean supply - demand balance sheet shows the changes in harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. from 2015 - 2024 [32]. - The domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheet shows the changes in harvest area, inventory, production, import volume, etc. from 2015 - 2024 [33]. 5. Position Data - The main short positions of soybean meal decreased, and funds flowed out. The main short positions of soybeans increased, and funds flowed in [9][11]. Other Data and Information - The trading volume and average price of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from December 17 - 25, 2025 are presented, along with the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [17]. - The futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal from December 18 - 25, 2025 are provided [19]. - The warehouse receipt statistics of soybeans and soybean meal from December 16 - 25, 2025 are given [21]. - The planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina (2023/24), the US (2024), Brazil (2024/25, 2025/26), and Argentina (2024/25, 2025/26) are detailed [34][35][39][41][42][43]. - The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from May - December 2025 are presented, including planting area, yield, production, etc. [44]. - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [45]. - The monthly arrival volume of imported soybeans from 2020 - 2025 is shown, with a slight increase in December 2025 compared to the same period [47]. - The soybean inventory of oil mills remained high, and the soybean meal inventory decreased from a high level. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills increased to a high level, and the demand for stockpiling increased. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remained relatively high, and the soybean meal production in October increased year - on - year [48][50][52]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans fluctuated downward following US soybeans, and the margin on the futures market fluctuated slightly [53]. - The pig inventory continued to rise, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price fluctuated slightly recently, and the piglet price remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in China increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs fluctuated slightly. The domestic pig farming profit fluctuated slightly [55][57][59][61].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The soybean market in the US is affected by the implementation of the Sino-US trade agreement and the weather in South American soybean - growing regions. The short - term trend is volatile, and the price is under pressure from the good weather in South American growing regions and the uncertainty of China's soybean purchases [10][11]. - The domestic soybean market is influenced by factors such as the cost of imported soybeans, the supply of domestic soybeans, and the Sino - US trade agreement. It shows a narrow - range volatile pattern, with the price supported by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand, but suppressed by the increase in US soybean purchases and the increase in domestic soybean production [11]. - The domestic soybean meal market is affected by the price of US soybeans, the supply of imported soybeans, and domestic demand. It is in a volatile pattern, with short - term demand improving but the inventory still at a relatively high level [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Tips No relevant information provided. 2. Recent News - The preliminary Sino - US tariff negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases and the US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US soybean futures are volatile above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean growth, harvest, and the follow - up of the Sino - US trade negotiation [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in December, while the soybean inventory of oil mills remained at a relatively high level. The weather in South American soybean - growing regions is normal, and soybean meal has returned to a range - bound pattern [13]. - The reduction in domestic pig - breeding profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal rebounded at a low level in December, which supported the price of soybean meal. The price is affected by the US soybean price and the rebound in demand and has returned to a range - bound pattern [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. There is still a possibility of speculation on the weather in the US soybean - growing regions, and the preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement has an impact. Soybean meal will maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term, waiting for the clear US soybean yield and the follow - up of the Sino - US trade negotiation [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - **Positive factors**: The preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills has no pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather in the US and South American soybean - growing regions [14]. - **Negative factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained at a relatively high level in December; Brazilian soybeans have started to be planted, and under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [15]. Soybeans - **Positive factors**: The increase in the cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans supports the domestic soybean price [16]. - **Negative factors**: The preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement leads to an increase in China's soybean purchases from the US; the increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of soybeans [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global soybean supply - demand balance sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the global soybean harvest area, output, and total supply showed an overall upward trend, and the ending inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [22]. - **USDA's monthly supply - demand report in the past six months**: From May 2025 to December 2025, the planting area, yield per unit, and output of US soybeans changed slightly, and the ending inventory also fluctuated [23]. - **US soybean planting, growth, and harvesting progress in 2024**: The sowing, emergence, flowering, pod - setting, leaf - falling, and harvesting progress of US soybeans in 2024 were compared with those of the previous year and the five - year average [24][25][26]. - **Brazilian and Argentine soybean planting progress**: The planting progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons and the planting progress of Argentine soybeans in the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons were presented [27][29][30][31]. - **Domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the domestic soybean harvest area, output, import volume, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio showed different trends [37]. - **Arrival volume of imported soybeans**: The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China from 2020 to 2025 showed monthly fluctuations, and the arrival volume in December 2025 increased slightly compared with previous months [38]. 5. Position Data No relevant information provided. 6. Soybean and Soybean Meal Fundamentals (Supply - Demand Inventory Structure) 1. US Soybean Market Analysis - The impact of the December USDA report is relatively neutral. The short - term trend of US soybeans is weakly volatile due to the uncertainty of the implementation of the Sino - US trade negotiation agreement. The bumper harvest of US soybeans and the good planting weather of Brazilian soybeans suppress the market. In general, the short - term weather variables in the Brazilian soybean - growing regions and the follow - up progress of the Sino - US trade agreement will affect the market [35]. - The expectation of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in December is maintained, which is short - term positive for commodities. The US soybean futures market is volatile in the short term, and the planting weather of South American soybeans and the follow - up implementation of the Sino - US trade negotiation agreement are still the biggest driving forces for the short - and medium - term trends of the market [35]. 2. Domestic Soybean Meal Industry Chain - **Arrival of imported soybeans**: The arrival volume of imported soybeans in December increased slightly, and the year - on - year overall showed an increase [38]. - **Oil mill crushing and inventory**: The soybean inventory of oil mills remained at a high level, and the soybean meal inventory decreased from a high level. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remained at a relatively high level, and the soybean meal production in October increased year - on - year [39][41]. - **Soybean meal transaction**: The downstream long - term stocking enthusiasm rebounded, and the market transaction is expected to rebound from a low level [9]. - **Pig - breeding inventory**: The pig inventory showed an upward trend, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price fluctuated slightly recently, and the piglet price remained weak [48][50]. 3. Downstream Demand Analysis - The demand for soybean meal rebounded at a low level in December, which was affected by the improvement in domestic pig - breeding demand, but the overall price was still determined by the supply side [57]. 7. Meal Market Structure - **Soybean meal basis analysis**: The soybean meal futures were weakly volatile, the spot price was relatively stable, and the spot premium decreased slightly [60]. - **Soybean meal and rapeseed meal price difference**: The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference between the 2605 contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal narrowed slightly [62]. 8. Technical Analysis Soybean - The soybean futures were weakly volatile, affected by the interaction between the US soybean price and the relatively stable domestic soybean spot price [67]. - The KDJ indicator dropped to a low level, and the short - term technical indicators entered a consolidation phase. The low - level indicator limited the further decline space, and it was necessary to wait for new guidance on whether it would continue to decline or rebound [67]. - The MACD oscillated and declined in the middle position, and the short - term entered a technical consolidation phase. The green energy narrowed, and it remained to be seen whether the adjustment could continue. The soybean futures returned to a range - bound pattern, waiting for new guidance [67]. Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures oscillated and declined, affected by the expected bumper harvest of South American soybeans, the uncertainty of the implementation of the Sino - US trade agreement, and the short - term weak domestic demand [70]. - The KDJ indicator oscillated at a low level, and the short - term entered a technical adjustment phase. The low - level indicator limited the further decline space, and it was necessary to wait for new guidance on whether it would continue to decline or rebound [70]. - The MACD oscillated and declined, and the short - term entered a technical adjustment and consolidation phase. The green energy narrowed, and it remained to be seen whether it could continue to decline. The soybean meal futures returned to a volatile pattern recently, waiting for the US soybean price and new guidance [70].