交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-12-15 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2605：2740至2800区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡回落，巴西大豆丰产预期压制盘面和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期回归震 荡等待中美贸易协议执行后续和南美大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回升， 美豆走势带动和技术性震荡整理，需求短期改善和现货价格贴水压制盘面反弹高度，短 期或维持震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货3060（华东），基差290，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存120.32万吨，上周115.3万吨，环比增加4.49%，去年同期83.45万吨， 同比增加44.18%。偏空 4 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-12-12 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 ✸大豆观点和策略 豆一A2601：4100至4200区间震荡 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2605：2740至2800区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡收涨，12月美农报数据基本未做调整和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期回归 震荡等待中美贸易协议执行后续和南美大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回 升，美豆走势带动和技术性震荡整理，需求短期改善和现货价格贴水压制盘面反弹高度， 短期或维持震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货3040（华东），基差270，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存120.32万吨，上周115.3万吨，环比增加4 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-12-11 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2605：2720至2780区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆探底回升，中国采购美豆数量仍存不确定性和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期回 归震荡等待中美贸易协议执行后续和南美大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内豆粕窄幅 震荡，美豆走势带动和技术性震荡整理，需求短期改善和现货价格贴水压制盘面反弹高 度，短期或维持震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货3030（华东），基差276，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存120.32万吨，上周115.3万吨，环比增加4.49%，去年同期83.45万吨， 同比增加44.18%。偏空 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-12-10 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2605：2720至2780区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡回落，中国采购美豆数量仍存不确定性和南美大豆丰产预期压制盘面， 美豆短期回归震荡等待中美贸易协议执行后续和南美大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国 内豆粕震荡回落，美豆走势带动和技术性震荡整理，需求短期改善和现货价格贴水压制 盘面反弹高度，短期或维持震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货3000（华东），基差237，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存120.32万吨，上周115.3万吨，环比增加4.49%，去年同期83.45万吨， 同比增加44.1 ...

1 每周提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 供应充裕，豆粕震荡回落 （豆粕周报12.1-12.5） 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 基本面影响因素概览 | 项目 | 概况 | 驱动 | 下周预期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 天气 | 巴西大豆产区天气短期正 | 中性 | 巴西大豆产区天气短期良 | | | 常 | | 好。中性或偏空 | | 进口成本 | 美豆震荡回落，中美贸易 | 偏空 | 进口成本预计震荡偏强，中 | | | 协议执行仍有变数 | | 性或偏多 | | 油厂压榨 | 豆粕需求短期改善，油厂 | 偏多 | 需求短期偏弱，油厂开机预 | | | 压榨量高位回落 | | 计维持偏 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of soybean meal futures will fluctuate in the range of 2800 - 2860, and the price of soybean futures will fluctuate in the range of 4040 - 4140. The short - term trend of both is affected by factors such as Chinese soybean procurement, South American planting weather, and Sino - US trade agreements [9][11]. - The soybean meal market is affected by both positive and negative factors, and it is expected to maintain a range - bound shock in the short term, waiting for further guidance on US soybean production and the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [13][15]. - The soybean market is also influenced by multiple factors, with the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand providing support, while the expected bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the increase in domestic production suppressing the upward space [16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Tips - The soybean meal M2605 is expected to fluctuate between 2800 - 2860. The domestic soybean meal shows a narrow - range shock. The demand improves in the short term, and the spot price discount restricts the upward space of the futures price. It is expected to maintain a shock pattern in the short term. The basis is at a premium, the inventory is increasing, the price is below the 20 - day moving average, the short positions of the main force are decreasing, and the funds are flowing in [9]. - The soybean A2601 is expected to fluctuate between 4040 - 4140. The domestic soybean shows a shock - down trend. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand support the price, while the increase in domestic production restricts the upward space. The basis is slightly at a premium, the inventory is increasing, the price is below the 20 - day moving average, the short positions of the main force are decreasing, and the funds are flowing out [11]. 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement on Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but there are still uncertainties in China's procurement volume and US soybean weather. The domestic import of soybeans decreased in November, and the soybean inventory of oil mills also decreased from the high level. The profit of domestic pig farming decreased, and the demand for soybean meal weakened in November. Overall, soybean meal is expected to maintain a range - bound shock in the short term, waiting for further guidance on US soybean production and the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Bullish for Soybean Meal - The preliminary agreement on Sino - US trade negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans; the inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills is not under pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of US and South American soybean production areas [14]. Bearish for Soybean Meal - The total volume of imported soybeans in November remained at a relatively high level; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [15]. Bullish for Soybeans - The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans supports the price [16]. Bearish for Soybeans - Brazilian soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest, and China has increased its procurement of Brazilian soybeans; the new - season domestic soybeans are expected to increase in production [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - The global soybean supply - demand balance shows that the harvest area, output, and total supply have generally increased in recent years, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio has also shown an upward trend [33]. - The domestic soybean supply - demand balance shows that the harvest area, output, and import volume have changed over the years, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio has fluctuated [34]. - The import volume of soybeans decreased from the high level in November but increased year - on - year overall. The soybean inventory of oil mills remained at a high level, and the soybean meal inventory returned to a high level. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills decreased to a low level, and the procurement demand decreased. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills decreased from the high level, and the soybean meal output in September increased year - on - year [49][50][52]. 5. Position Data - For soybean meal, the short positions of the main force decreased, and the funds flowed in. For soybeans, the short positions of the main force decreased, and the funds flowed out [9][11]. Other Information - The price of soybean meal futures fluctuated downwards, while the spot price was relatively stable, and the spot discount narrowed slightly. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the spot market fluctuated slightly, and the price difference in the 2605 contract widened slightly [24][30]. - The cost of imported Brazilian soybeans fluctuated upwards following the US soybeans, and the profit on the futures market fluctuated slightly [56]. - The inventory of live pigs continued to rise, the inventory of sows was flat year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month. The price of live pigs fluctuated slightly recently, and the price of piglets remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in the domestic market increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of live pigs increased slightly. The profit of domestic pig farming decreased slightly [58][60][64].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - **For Soybean Meal (M2601)**: The price is expected to oscillate between 3040 and 3100. The short - term trend is influenced by the US soybean market. Although China's purchase of US soybeans supports the short - term US soybean price, uncertainties remain in the purchase volume and the US soybean harvest weather. Domestically, the high arrival volume of imported Brazilian soybeans and the current situation of demand and inventory lead to a short - term oscillatory pattern [9]. - **For Soybeans (A2601)**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 4060 and 4160. The short - term trend is affected by the US soybean market, the cost of imported soybeans, and the supply - demand situation of domestic soybeans. The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean price, while the high arrival volume of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppress the upward movement [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement in the China - US tariff negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans, but uncertainties remain in China's purchase volume and US soybean weather. The US soybean market is oscillating strongly above the 1000 - point mark in the short term [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in November, and the soybean inventory of oil mills also declined from the high level in November. The soybean meal market has returned to an oscillatory pattern in the short term [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment, weakening the demand for soybean meal in November and suppressing the price [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. The soybean meal market will maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term, awaiting further guidance on US soybean production and the follow - up of the China - US trade negotiation [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - **Bullish Factors**: The preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills is not under pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of US and South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Bearish Factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained relatively high in November; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [15]. Soybeans - **Bullish Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean price; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [16]. - **Bearish Factors**: The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchase of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The harvest area, output, and other data of soybeans from 2015 to 2024 are presented, showing the overall supply - demand situation of global soybeans during this period [33]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The harvest area, output, import volume, and other data of domestic soybeans from 2015 to 2024 are provided, reflecting the domestic supply - demand situation [34]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: The planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023 to 2026 are detailed, including the planting rate, harvest rate, and comparison with previous years and the five - year average [35][36][40]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Report**: The planting area, yield, output, and other data of soybeans in the US in the past six months are shown, as well as the output data of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [46]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival Volume**: The monthly arrival volume of imported soybeans from 2020 to 2025 is presented, indicating that the arrival volume decreased from the high level in November 2025, but the overall year - on - year increase [49]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the given content

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal M2601 will fluctuate in the range of 3020 - 3080. The US soybean market is closed for Thanksgiving, and the market focuses on China's soybean purchases. Domestic soybean meal is rising, but the demand improvement and spot price discount limit the rebound. It is expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern [9]. - The soybean A2601 will fluctuate in the range of 4060 - 4160. The domestic soybean market is affected by the US soybean trend, and the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans supports the price, but the domestic soybean production increase restricts the upward movement [11]. - The preliminary agreement on Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. However, there are uncertainties in China's purchase quantity and US soybean weather. The domestic soybean meal market will return to range - bound fluctuations due to various factors such as the decline of soybean arrivals in November, the decrease in hog farming profits, and the high inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills [13]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - No relevant detailed content found 2. Recent News - The preliminary Sino - US tariff negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating strongly above the 1000 - point mark. The domestic soybean meal market has returned to range - bound fluctuations due to factors like the decline in imported soybean arrivals in November, the decrease in hog farming profits, and high inventory in domestic oil mills [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - **Soybean Meal Longs**: The preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; the inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills has no pressure; the weather in the US and South American soybean - producing areas is still uncertain [14]. - **Soybean Meal Shorts**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in November remains high; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [15]. - **Soybean Longs**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [16]. - **Soybean Shorts**: Brazil's soybean harvest is good, and China is increasing its purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in domestic soybean production restricts the price increase [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The basis of soybean meal in East China is - 55, indicating a discount to futures. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is 99.29 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.89% and a year - on - year increase of 27.52% [9]. - **Soybeans**: The basis of domestic soybeans is - 6, indicating a discount to futures. The inventory of soybeans in oil mills is 747.71 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.87% and a year - on - year increase of 40.92% [11]. - The report also provides the supply - demand balance sheets of global and domestic soybeans from 2015 - 2024, including data on harvest area, production, inventory, etc. [33][34] 5. Position Data - The main short positions in both soybean meal and soybeans have increased, and funds have flowed out [9][11] 6. Soybean Meal and Soybean Price and Transaction Data - The report provides the transaction prices and volumes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from November 19 - 27, 2025, as well as the price differences between them [17]. - It also shows the futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal from November 20 - 27, 2025 [19]. - The report presents the warehouse receipt statistics of soybeans and soybean meal from November 18 - 27, 2025 [21]. 7. Global Soybean Production Progress - The report provides the planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina (2023/24, 2024/25), the US (2024, 2025), and Brazil (2024/25, 2025/26) [35][36][40] 8. USDA Supply - Demand Report - The report shows the USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from April - November 2025, including data on planting area, yield, production, and ending inventory [46] 9. Other Market Conditions - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans has increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [47]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans decreased from its high in November but increased overall year - on - year [49]. - The inventory of soybeans in oil mills remains high, while the inventory of soybean meal has decreased from its high [50]. - The unfulfilled contracts of oil mills have increased from a low level, and the备货 demand has recovered [52]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has decreased following the decline of US soybeans, and the on - paper profit has fluctuated slightly [56]. - The hog inventory has been rising, the sow inventory is flat year - on - year and slightly decreased month - on - month. The hog price has fluctuated slightly recently, and the piglet price has remained weak. The proportion of large hogs in China has increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of hogs has increased slightly. The domestic hog farming profit has decreased slightly [58][60][64]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-11-26 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸大豆观点和策略 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2601：3000至3060区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡收涨，市场关注中国量采购美豆进展和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期回归 震荡等待中美贸易协议执行后续和南美大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回 升，美豆走势带动和技术性震荡整理，需求短期改善和现货价格贴水压制盘面反弹高度， 短期或维持震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2980（华东），基差-33，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存99.29万吨，上周115.3万吨，环比减少13.89%，去年同期77.86万吨， 同比增加2 ...

此外，AgMarket.Net的农经学家吉姆·麦考密克表示，一些分析师和交易员对中国是否会履行大豆购买 承诺持怀疑态度。虽然白宫表示中国承诺购买1200万吨大豆。据是中方从未公开表示过达成了这样的协 议。麦考密克表示，特朗普政府暗示美中贸易协议可能在感恩节前最终敲定。 尽管近期中国开始恢复采购美国大豆，但是据俄亥俄州立大学的农经学家伊恩·谢尔顿表示，他估计中 国在年底前不会购买1200万吨美国大豆。 周一美国农业部长罗林斯表示，据她了解，美国和中国将在本周或下周签署农产品采购协议。她补充 说，她相信中国会履行其购买承诺。 谢尔顿表示，由于中国已经拥有足够的供应，因此没有太多动力进行额外采购。他补充说，(中国能否 实现采购目标)，在很大程度上取决于中国政府在推动国有贸易商进口大豆的举措。进入新的一年后， 采购步伐将取决于私人贸易商以及美国大豆相对巴西大豆的价格竞争力。 罗林斯称，种种迹象表明，中国的承诺依然有效，确实会购买1200万吨大豆。 （来源：饲料行业信息网） 此外，美国大豆销售高峰即将结束，进口商现在面临着运输限制。通过巴拿马运河的每艘货轮可以运输 6万至8万吨。而要达到1200万吨的运输量，就需要15 ...