Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report comprehensively analyzes the changes in global financial markets, industrial supply - demand, and macroeconomic news during the 2025 May Day holiday, covering commodities, currencies, and key economic indicators in both international and domestic markets. 3. Summary by Directory 2025 May Day Foreign Market Changes - **Commodity Prices**: During the May Day holiday, there were fluctuations in various commodity prices. For example, BMD palm oil fell 2.12%, NYMEX crude oil dropped 4.74%, and COMEX gold rose 1.77%. The dollar index rose 0.34%, the Dow Jones Industrial Index increased 1.71%, and the Nasdaq Index rose 2.95% [2]. - **Currency Exchange Rates**: The Argentine peso against the US dollar had a 2.33% decline, while other major currencies like the Chinese yuan, Malaysian ringgit, and Indonesian rupiah remained stable against the US dollar [2]. 2025 May Day Industrial Supply - Demand - **International Supply - Demand** - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia's April palm oil production is expected to increase, with different institutions' data showing growth ranging from 14.74% to 24.62%. Export data from different institutions vary, with some showing an increase and others a decrease. Indonesia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in May, and India's palm oil imports in April decreased by 24% [3][4][5]. - **Soybeans**: As of April 29, about 15% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, a 6% reduction from the previous week. As of May 4, the US soybean planting rate was 30%, lower than expected. US soybean export sales increased, and Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production is expected to be 1.684 billion tons [6][7][10]. - **Other Crops**: Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 21.6% in the week ending April 27, and Australia's 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to be 620,000 tons [13]. - **Domestic Supply - Demand** - **Agricultural Products**: On April 30, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 85% compared to the previous trading day. The opening rate of domestic oil mills decreased by 0.49%, and the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" dropped 0.27 points [15]. 2025 May Day Macroeconomic News - **International News** - **US Economy**: The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in May is 97.3%. The US Q1 core PCE price index annualized quarterly rate was 3.5%, and the Q1 real GDP annualized quarterly rate was - 0.3%. The April non - farm payrolls were 177,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.2% [16][17]. - **OPEC**: OPEC's April oil production decreased by 200,000 barrels per day to 2.724 million barrels per day. OPEC + plans to increase production in June and possibly again in July [19]. - **Eurozone**: The Eurozone's Q1 GDP annual rate was 1.2%, the April CPI annual rate was 2.2%, and the May Sentix investor confidence index was - 8.1 [19][20]. - **Domestic News** - **Exchange Rate and Monetary Policy**: On April 30, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.2014, down 15 points. The central bank conducted 530.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 422.8 billion yuan [22]. - **Economic Indicators**: China's April manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decline from the previous month [22].

Core Viewpoint - Gold exhibits a unique price fluctuation mechanism influenced by multiple factors, including currency pricing systems, macroeconomic risks, market structure evolution, supply-demand elasticity, and technical reinforcement mechanisms. Group 1: Currency Pricing System Linkage - The international gold price is negatively correlated with the US dollar index, where a 1% increase in the dollar index raises gold purchasing costs, suppressing investment demand [1]. - Major central banks' balance sheet expansions directly elevate gold price benchmarks, with each additional $1 trillion in quantitative easing raising gold valuations by 8%-12% [2]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Risk Matrix - The forward price of gold is determined by the nominal interest rate minus inflation expectations, with gold prices reaching a historical peak of $2075 per ounce when the real yield on US Treasuries fell below -1% [3]. - A 10-point increase in the global geopolitical risk index results in a 3.2% increase in average monthly gold holdings, evidenced by events like the Crimea crisis and the Russia-Ukraine conflict [4]. Group 3: Market Structure Evolution - Emerging market central banks have increased gold purchases for 13 consecutive years, with global official reserves rising by 1136 tons in 2022, accounting for 23% of annual supply [5]. - An increase of 100,000 open contracts in COMEX gold futures raises price volatility by 1.8 basis points, with significant spikes in implied volatility during events like the Silicon Valley Bank incident [6]. Group 4: Supply-Demand Elasticity - The average extraction cost of the top ten gold mines has risen to $1250 per ounce, with newly discovered reserves declining by 15% year-on-year [7]. - India and China account for 55% of global physical gold demand, with a 40% surge in imports during festive seasons, despite India's recent increase in import tax to 15% [8]. Group 5: Technical Reinforcement Mechanisms - Algorithmic trading strategies hold over 30 million ounces of gold, with momentum factors contributing over 35% to price volatility, triggering significant buy orders upon breaking key price levels [9]. - A 50% year-on-year increase in Google searches for "gold investment" correlates with a 68% probability of gold price increases in the following 30 days [10].