Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - After the easing of the Israel-Iran conflict, the polyester industry chain declined significantly due to the sharp drop in crude oil prices caused by the ceasefire. The industry will return to fundamental trading, and future market trends are affected by multiple factors including geopolitics, supply and demand fundamentals, and device operations [1] - In the short term, the oil market pressure is limited as it enters a stage of both increasing supply and demand. However, in the fourth quarter of this year, the market may turn bearish as demand growth elasticity is expected to be significantly less than supply [2] - The gasoline crack spread has limited upside, and the aromatics market is affected by factors such as export volume and short - process device profitability [2] - Each product in the polyester industry chain has different situations in terms of price, profit, inventory, and production plans, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production reduction plans and inventory changes [3][4] Summary by Directory 1. Price and Basis - Present the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends, PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread trends, PTA East China spot basis, and short - fiber basis [10][11][13] 2. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Include PX processing fees (PXN), PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profits, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profits [19][22] 3. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Cover the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR spread, and PTA export profits [27][29] 4. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Show the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [30][33][35] 5. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Provide information on PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [38][41][42] 6. Downstream Polyester Load - Include filament sales volume, short - fiber sales volume, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rates, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine start - up rates, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing start - up rates, and filament profits [49][51][62] 7. PF Detailed Data - Contain polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, difference between original and recycled fibers, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [75][82][86] 8. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Provide polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fees, bottle - chip export processing fees, bottle - chip export profits, bottle - chip inter - month spreads [90][92][101]

Core Viewpoint - The soda ash industry is experiencing a downward trend in prices due to oversupply and weak demand, with the main contract dropping to around 1150 RMB/ton without signs of stabilization [1] Supply and Production - Major soda ash producers, including Biyuan Yingen, Henan Jingshan, and Shandong Haohua, have initiated maintenance in May and June, but supply pressure remains high [1][2] - The industry is facing record-high inventory levels exceeding 2 million tons, prompting companies to reduce supply through early maintenance [1][2] - In May, the operating rate of soda ash manufacturers was 84%, with a production of approximately 3.14 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.2% [2] Demand Dynamics - Demand for soda ash has significantly contracted, with daily melting volumes for float glass decreasing by nearly 20,000 tons compared to last year's peak, and a 13% year-on-year reduction in daily melting volume for photovoltaic glass [1][4][5] - The real estate sector is in a bottoming cycle, with various investment and construction metrics showing declines, which negatively impacts the demand for float glass [4] - The photovoltaic sector is also underperforming, with a significant drop in installed projects and increasing inventory levels for photovoltaic glass, leading to a reduction in production capacity [5] Cost and Profitability - Despite the decline in soda ash prices, the costs of key raw materials like coal and salt are also decreasing, providing some profit margins for producers [3] - The cost support for ammonia-soda process has shifted from 1300-1400 RMB/ton at the beginning of the year to 1100-1150 RMB/ton currently [3] - The profitability of the soda ash industry may face further compression due to the ongoing oversupply situation, despite some producers still maintaining profits [5]

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Affected by the geopolitical conflict, the strong crude oil drives the rubber to rebound. However, under the expectation of increasing supply and weak demand, the subsequent rubber price is expected to remain weak. Hold the short positions above 14,000 and pay attention to the raw material situation in each producing area and macro - event disturbances [1] - **Summary by Directory** - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex remained unchanged at 13,950 yuan/ton; the whole milk basis increased by 162.50%; the Thai standard mixed rubber price decreased by 0.72%; the cup rubber price decreased by 0.52%; the glue price remained unchanged; the natural rubber prices in Xishuangbanna and Hainan were mostly stable, with the glue price in Xishuangbanna increasing by 0.76% [1] - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 1.18%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 25.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 1.73% [1] - **Fundamental Data**: In April, the production of Thailand, Indonesia, and India decreased, while China's production increased. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased, the domestic tire production in May decreased slightly, the tire export increased by 7.72%, the natural rubber import in April decreased by 11.93%, and the import of natural and synthetic rubber in May decreased by 11.59%. The production cost and production profit of Thai dry glue changed [1] - **Inventory Change**: The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.67%, the natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory in SHFE decreased by 7.51%, the dry glue warehouse entry and exit rates in Qingdao changed [1] Group 2: Industrial Silicon Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The industrial silicon futures are oscillating strongly. Although it is supported by the demand for restocking and the strong coking coal futures, the current fundamentals have not improved significantly. The increase in production may lead to inventory pressure and suppress the price. The current situation does not mean a bottom - rebound [3] - **Summary by Directory** - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of various types of industrial silicon remained unchanged, and the basis decreased [3] - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spreads of different contracts decreased to varying degrees [3] - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In May, the national industrial silicon production increased by 2.29%, the production in Xinjiang decreased by 2.60%, the production in Yunnan decreased by 25.43%, the production in Sichuan increased by 109.47%, and the production in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia increased. The production of 97 - silicon decreased, and the production of recycled silicon, organic silicon DMC, and polysilicon increased slightly. The production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased slightly. The industrial silicon export in April decreased by 8.03% [3] - **Inventory Change**: The factory - warehouse inventories in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan changed, the social inventory decreased by 2.27%, and the contract inventory and non - warehouse inventory decreased [3] Group 3: Polysilicon Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The polysilicon price continues to decline under pressure due to the strong expectation of increased supply and weakening demand. Although it supports the price of industrial silicon, the polysilicon fundamentals have not improved. The short positions can be held cautiously [5] - **Summary by Directory** - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average prices of various types of polysilicon and related products remained unchanged, and the basis of N - type material and cauliflower material increased [5] - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The PS2506 contract price decreased by 3.12%, and the monthly spreads of different contracts changed [5] - **Fundamental Data**: The weekly silicon wafer production decreased by 1.53%, and the polycrystalline silicon production increased by 2.94%. In May, the polysilicon production increased by 0.73%, the silicon wafer production decreased by 0.50%, and the silicon wafer demand decreased by 8.10%. In April, the polysilicon import decreased by 72.71%, the export increased by 66.17%, the silicon wafer import decreased by 15.29%, and the export decreased by 12.97% [5] - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory decreased by 4.73%, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 3.10% [5] Group 4: Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View** - **Soda Ash**: Although the soda ash futures stabilized with the market sentiment last week, the supply - demand pattern is still in obvious excess. There will be a further profit - reduction process. The overall demand has not increased significantly, and the inventory may increase after the end of maintenance. The short positions can be held [6] - **Glass**: The spot market improved last week, but the future pressure still exists. Entering the summer rainy season, the demand will slow down again. The glass industry needs capacity clearance, and the 09 contract is expected to oscillate between 950 - 1050, with long - term pressure [6] - **Summary by Directory** - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: The prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The prices of glass 2505 and 2509 increased slightly, and the 05 spread decreased by 18.18% [6] - **Soda Ash - related Price and Spread**: The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, and Central China remained unchanged, and the price in Northwest China decreased by 2.00%. The prices of soda ash 2505 and 2509 decreased slightly, and the 05 spread increased by 1.05% [6] - **Supply**: The soda ash operating rate increased by 8.06%, the weekly production increased by 8.04%, the float glass daily melting volume decreased by 0.70%, the photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 1.00%, and the price of 3.2mm coated glass decreased by 4.76% [6] - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory increased by 2.84%, the soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 3.82%, the soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory decreased by 5.87%, and the glass factory's soda ash inventory days increased by 15.91% [6] - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year new construction area increased by 2.99%, the construction area decreased by 7.56%, the completion area increased by 15.67%, and the sales area increased by 12.13% [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the impact of the Israel-Iran conflict on international oil prices, with initial spikes followed by stabilization due to limited disruption in oil supply and infrastructure [1][3][5] - Following the Israeli strikes on Iranian energy facilities, oil prices surged, with New York crude reaching approximately $76 per barrel, marking a 12% increase, while Brent crude approached $78 per barrel, a 10% rise [1] - Despite the conflict, Iran's oil production remains significant at around 3.3 million barrels per day, with exports of about 1.5 million barrels per day, maintaining its status as a key energy exporter [1][4] Group 2 - Concerns about damage to energy infrastructure, particularly in Iran, have been raised, as Israeli attacks targeted facilities like the South Pars gas plant and the Fajr Jam refinery, although the overall impact on international markets appears limited [2][3] - The Strait of Hormuz remains operational, with minimal disruption to shipping, as evidenced by the passage of 111 vessels on June 15, indicating that key oil infrastructure has not been significantly affected [3] - Analysts suggest that unless the conflict escalates further, the energy market is unlikely to experience major disruptions, with a prevailing view that the global oil market is currently oversupplied [4][5] Group 3 - OPEC+ has begun increasing production, with plans to add approximately 1.37 million barrels per day by July, contributing to a global oversupply situation [4] - Goldman Sachs predicts that despite strong growth in U.S. shale oil supply, global oil supply growth will outpace it, leading to a decline in Brent crude prices to $59 per barrel by Q4 2025 [5] - In extreme scenarios, such as a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could surge above $100 per barrel, but current assessments indicate that geopolitical risks from the Israel-Iran conflict will likely add a price premium of only $5 to $10 per barrel [5]

Core Viewpoint - The phenol market has been experiencing a downward trend since the second quarter, with prices dropping over 10% from a peak of 7350 yuan per ton in April to around 6600 yuan in June, amid unresolved supply-demand conflicts and the upcoming commissioning of new production facilities [1] Supply Side Pressure - Domestic phenol and acetone production capacity has rapidly increased, leading to an oversupply situation that has persisted into the second quarter of this year, with production capacity expected to reach 6.39 million tons per year by 2024 [2] - In April, phenol prices peaked at 7350 yuan but fell back to 6900 yuan in May due to weak demand and oversupply, resulting in a year-on-year price drop of over 13% for the month [2] - Despite some production facilities undergoing maintenance, the overall operating rate of phenol and acetone plants increased by 2.1 percentage points to 77%, leading to a 6.24% rise in phenol output month-on-month, which further suppressed price increases [2] Cost Side Drag - Pure benzene, which accounts for about 40% of phenol production costs, has seen a continuous decline in price, failing to provide cost support for phenol [3] - In April, pure benzene prices in East China dropped over 800 yuan, falling below 6000 yuan, and reached a low of 5700 yuan before recovering slightly due to tariff negotiations, but remained under pressure from increased imports and inventory [3] - Propylene prices also faced downward pressure, hitting a new low of 6350 yuan at the end of May, with weak demand limiting any potential price recovery [3] Weak Demand - The largest downstream application of phenol is bisphenol A, which has been experiencing declining prices due to oversupply and slow demand recovery, leading to a cautious purchasing strategy among phenol buyers [4] - The market for bisphenol A is expected to remain weak in the short term, with ongoing price pressure from buyers and limited purchasing activity, although further price declines may be limited as current prices approach cost levels [4] - Overall, the phenol market is facing triple pressures from oversupply, cost declines, and weak demand, making it difficult to reverse the current weak market trend in the short term [4]

Group 1 - The soda ash market experienced a downward trend in May, with prices hitting a new low by the end of the month, failing to meet expectations of price recovery due to maintenance plans [1] - The maintenance plans did not execute as anticipated, with some companies shortening or delaying their maintenance schedules, leading to insufficient overall maintenance efforts [1] - The production low phase is expected to last from late May to early June, with overlapping maintenance plans from major manufacturers contributing to market pressure relief [1] Group 2 - Leading manufacturers, benefiting from previous price advantages, hold a significant number of pending orders from futures traders, which helped alleviate overall inventory pressure during the market downturn [2] - Companies with less competitive pricing and cost structures are facing higher inventory pressures and are at a disadvantage in market competition [2] - The current market outlook indicates a supply surplus as the core factor suppressing prices, with future improvements reliant on supply-side production cuts [2]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI in May rose to 49.5%, remaining below the expansion threshold but showing a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month[4] - The production index increased to 50.7%, indicating a return to expansion after a period of contraction[7] - New export orders index rose by 2.8 percentage points to 47.5%, reflecting a slight improvement in external demand[7] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply and demand improvements are likely to be short-lived due to uncertainties in tariff policies, leading to a potential decline in production after the current export surge[2] - Companies are actively reducing inventory, as indicated by the finished goods inventory index dropping to 46.5%[7] - The purchasing price index for raw materials fell to 46.9%, while the factory price index decreased to 44.7%, indicating increasing downward pressure on prices[7] Group 3: Sector Performance - The construction PMI fell to 51%, primarily due to reduced intensity in residential construction, while infrastructure construction remains strong[7] - The service sector PMI increased to 50.2%, driven by holiday-related activities, but still lags behind historical averages since 2013[7] Group 4: Policy Recommendations - To prevent a downward spiral in quantity and price, early policy intervention is necessary to support domestic demand and clarify anti-competitive regulations[2] - There is a need for measures to stimulate demand to avoid a rapid decline in production once the current export surge subsides[2]

5月29日盘中，玻璃期货主力合约遭遇一波急速下挫，最低下探至978.00元。截止收盘，玻璃主力合约 报985.00元，跌幅3.15%。 玻璃期货主力跌超3%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 方正中期期货 玻璃价格中长期偏弱 中财期货 预计短期玻璃价格震荡偏弱运行 方正中期期货：玻璃价格中长期偏弱 供过于求态势下玻璃价格中长期偏弱，盘面短暂反弹后在梅雨季需求预期偏弱影响下测试1000元关口支 撑。湖北产线冷修消息带动盘面反弹，关注行情再度企稳可能。盘面短期或震荡寻求新低支撑；套利方 面，老旧小区改造和城市更新避免大拆大建，相比于钢材对玻璃更为利多，宜多配玻璃空配螺纹。主力 合约下方支撑1000-1010，上方压力1150-1200。 中财期货：预计短期玻璃价格震荡偏弱运行 国内浮法玻璃原片价格基本稳定，市场成交一般，中下游按需采购。华南个别企业取消部分阶段提货政 策优惠。当前市场刚需表现一般，浮法厂去库压力较大，成本支撑趋强。需求端方面，加工厂订单不 多，刚需支撑疲软。供给方面，今日漳州旗滨八线复产，湖北个别产线计划5月30日冷修，此外少数产 线存6月份冷修/点火计划。浮法厂库存有压。综 ...

展望后市，孙成震认为，5月中旬锰硅生产企业大量减停产有所放缓，当前锰硅供应量止跌回升，需求 利多有限，库存偏高，基本面支撑减弱。后续需关注两点：一是基本面的边际变化，二是锰矿的发运情 况。 "后续锰硅主产区产量下降空间有限。"光大期货资源品分析师孙成震告诉记者，5月上中旬，锰硅主产 区产量降幅较大，但近期降幅有所放缓。相关数据显示，截至上周，锰硅周产量16.52万吨，环比增加 1.51%，结束了长达9周的环比下降趋势。锰硅产量处于阶段性低位，6月丰水期部分地区仍有增量计 划，后续锰硅整体产量减少空间有限。 "事实上，锰硅基本面变化不大。虽然生产厂家减产，但整体供过于求的格局短期难以扭转。"刘朦朦表 示，受亏损影响，独立硅锰企业样本周度产量自2月底的高位减少近20%，下游需求也有所下滑，硅锰 钢招量价齐跌。硅锰库存高企，独立硅锰企业样本的库存自低位增长70%，显示减产未能带来供需形势 的改善，供过于求的格局依旧明显。 国海良时期货资源品分析师吴丹认为，需求方面，下游铁水产量处于高位，短期对锰硅价格有一定提 振，但终端钢材需求或季节性转弱，前期"抢出口"也提前消费了部分需求。 孙成震表示，终端需求表现偏弱是影响锰 ...

高盛：由于供过于求、经济衰退风险高企等因素，2025年央行的黄金购买量仍将强劲，预计黄金（价 格）将继续超过白银。 ...