Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view of treasury bond futures is to maintain a bottom - side oscillating trend in the short term. The upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient due to a decreased possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts and a rising risk appetite in the stock market. However, the anchoring effect of policy interest rates limits the upward space of market interest rates, providing strong support for treasury bond futures [5]. - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are oscillating, with an intraday view of slightly weak oscillation, mainly because the possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts has decreased and the risk appetite in the stock market has increased [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, the intraday view is slightly weak oscillation, and the overall view is oscillating. The core logic is that the possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts has decreased and the risk appetite in the stock market has increased [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is slightly weak oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating. - The core logic is that although treasury bond futures oscillated upwards yesterday, their upward momentum is insufficient. On one hand, the monetary policy in the second half of this year emphasizes implementation and structuring, reducing the possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts. On the other hand, the risk appetite in the stock market continues to rise, with the trading volume in the stock market exceeding 3 trillion yuan, attracting funds to flow into the stock market and suppressing the demand for purchasing treasury bonds. However, the anchoring effect of policy interest rates limits the upward space of market interest rates, providing strong support for treasury bond futures, so they will maintain a bottom - side oscillating trend in the short term [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The short - term view of treasury bond futures is weak - side oscillation, and the medium - term view is oscillation. The overall view is oscillation. The reason is that the possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts has decreased, and the risk appetite of the stock market has risen [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are oscillation, and the intraday view is weak - side oscillation. The core logic is that the possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts has decreased, and the risk appetite of the stock market has risen [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of varieties TL, T, TF, TS is weak - side oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is oscillation. The core logic is that treasury bond futures rebounded slightly in oscillation yesterday. On one hand, future policy will focus on structural easing, and the possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts has decreased. The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy implementation report emphasizes "refinement" and "structure", indicating that future monetary policy will introduce structural easing policies in areas such as inclusive small and micro financial services, financial support for scientific and technological innovation, and financial support for consumption promotion. On the other hand, the risk appetite of the stock market has been rising recently, and the money - making effect of the stock market has attracted funds into the stock market, suppressing the demand for buying treasury bonds. However, due to the continuous recovery of market interest rates, the anchoring effect of policy interest rates is gradually emerging, and the room for further increase in market interest rates is limited. In general, treasury bond futures will operate in a weak - side oscillation in the short term [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall view on Treasury bond futures is "oscillation". In the short - term, Treasury bond futures are expected to operate in an oscillatory and weakly downward manner. The reasons are that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased, and the risk appetite in the stock market has increased, leading to a shift of funds from bonds to stocks and suppressing the demand for buying Treasury bonds [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Content 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillatory and weakly downward", and the overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased, and the risk appetite in the stock market has increased [1] 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillatory and weakly downward", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that on August 16, 2025, the central bank released the second - quarter monetary policy implementation report, emphasizing "refinement" and "structure", which weakened the expectation of a comprehensive interest rate cut. Also, the risk appetite in the stock market has been rising recently, and funds have shifted from bonds to stocks, suppressing the demand for buying Treasury bonds. Overall, Treasury bond futures are expected to operate in an oscillatory and weakly downward manner in the short term [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "moderately loose" tone of monetary policy continues, and a comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut may be implemented first. Monetary policy will strengthen counter - cyclical adjustment and cooperate with fiscal policy. A comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut may land in the first half of the year, and a comprehensive interest rate cut may be launched if necessary. Structural tools will support key areas and new tools may be created to promote consumption and stabilize foreign trade [4][34][36]. - The supply pressure of interest - rate bonds may increase. The annual issuance of interest - rate bonds may exceed 31 trillion yuan, with supply peaks in the second and third quarters. The yield will remain highly volatile under the game between the fundamentals and incremental policies, and the yield center may decline in the second half of the year. Attention can be paid to local bond trading opportunities [4][37][44]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental and Liquidity Monitoring - In the first quarter, the economy started well with GDP growing by 5.4% year - on - year. The industrial added value increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and high - tech manufacturing grew rapidly. Investment and social retail sales increased, but there were still issues such as negative real estate investment growth. CPI and PPI showed different trends, and PMI data indicated overall weak performance [6]. - The MLF policy interest rate attribute was diluted, and the money market was tight with the central money rate rising. The central bank mainly used repurchase operations for net capital injection, and did not cut interest rates or the reserve requirement ratio. Banks faced high liability pressure, and non - bank deposits decreased significantly [9][12]. 3.2 Interest - rate Bond Market Operation - The issuance scale of interest - rate bonds increased year - on - year. In the first quarter, the total issuance scale reached 7.87 trillion yuan, with increases in all types of bonds. Special refinancing bonds for local debt increased significantly, while the issuance progress of new special bonds was still slow compared with 2022 - 2023 [15]. - The yield of interest - rate bonds first rose and then fell, with high volatility. The 10 - year treasury bond yield was 1.8129% at the end of March, up 13.77BP from the end of last year. The yield can be divided into three stages in the first quarter: interval fluctuation, upward fluctuation, and downward fluctuation [17][18][19]. - The trading volume of interest - rate bonds increased, mainly driven by the increase in policy - financial bond trading. The 10Y - 1Y spread of treasury bonds narrowed, and the local bond trading spread widened [24][25]. 3.3 Monetary Policy Outlook - The "moderately loose" tone of monetary policy continues. Considering overseas uncertainties and domestic economic challenges, the central bank will choose the timing to cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates. A comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut may be implemented first, and the use of structural tools will be increased [34][36]. 3.4 Interest - rate Bond Outlook - The annual issuance of interest - rate bonds may exceed 31 trillion yuan. The issuance of government bonds will accelerate, and the second and third quarters may see supply peaks. If the US maintains high tariffs, it may drag down China's GDP growth, and incremental fiscal policies may be introduced, increasing the supply of interest - rate bonds [37][40]. - The yield will remain highly volatile under the game between the fundamentals and incremental policies. In the second quarter, the yield may fluctuate within a range, and may face upward pressure if the tariff negotiation eases. In the second half of the year, the yield center may decline if the economic repair pressure increases [43][44].