Core Viewpoint - Foreign capital is gradually increasing its allocation to Chinese assets, reflecting a positive outlook on the Chinese market despite recent market fluctuations [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance and Outlook - A-shares and H-shares are expected to see an 8% and 3% increase respectively over the next 12 months, according to Goldman Sachs [2][9]. - The recent market rally is driven by liquidity and institutional investments rather than retail investors, with significant inflows from both domestic and foreign institutions [4][5]. - The active participation of foreign investors in A-shares has reached a cyclical high, with August seeing the highest monthly inflow of funds in recent years [4][6]. Group 2: Institutional Investment Trends - Domestic public funds have reduced their cash ratios to a five-year low, indicating a higher stock exposure [4]. - Insurance companies have increased their stock holdings by 26% this year, while private equity funds have grown from 5 trillion RMB to 5.9 trillion RMB [4]. - The Northbound trading activity has surged to historical highs, showcasing increased foreign institutional interest in A-shares [5]. Group 3: Future Potential and Valuation - The current valuation of MSCI China and CSI 300 is at 13.5x and 14.7x forward P/E ratios, which are below historical bull market averages of 15-20x [8]. - There is a significant potential for incremental capital inflow into the A-share market, as household asset allocation is heavily skewed towards real estate (55%) and cash deposits (27%), with only 11% in stocks [8][9]. - If institutional ownership in A-shares rises to the average levels of emerging and developed markets, it could lead to an influx of 14 trillion RMB or 30 trillion RMB into the market [9].

从这个角度来说，华鑫证券预计后续降息预期仍有持续放大的空间，需要等待通胀的低基数效应的退潮 或者更弱的经济数据触发。 北京时间9月18日凌晨，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到4.00%至4.25%之间，符合 市场预期。这也是美联储自去年12月以来，时隔9个月再度降息。华鑫证券判断后续的降息路径是"先滞 胀、再走弱、后通胀"。 从美股表现来看，虽然降息交易板块在议息会议中出现了回吐，但需要强调的是整体的流动性已经开始 出现了宽裕，因此利好小盘。华鑫证券认为，在类滞胀格局结束后，降息预期放大带动的降息交易依然 是值得把握的趋势新机会，当前是降息交易的"倒车接人"而不是降息交易的反转。 上证报中国证券网讯（刘禹希 记者 徐蔚）北京时间9月18日凌晨，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间 下调25个基点到4.00%至4.25%之间，符合市场预期。这也是美联储自去年12月以来，时隔9个月再度降 息。 华鑫证券判断后续的降息路径是"先滞胀、再走弱、后通胀"。该机构分析，短期美国仍会进入到类滞胀 的格局，带来资产的波动放大，而后经济的弱现实压制再通胀预期，带动降息预期的放大，随后在经济 周期得到扭转后，重回长期 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese stock market is experiencing a liquidity-driven bull market, with "reflation" expectations and AI development as key catalysts [1][2] - Institutional investors, both domestic and foreign, are the main contributors to the current market rally, contrary to the belief that retail investors are driving the surge [1][8] - Goldman Sachs maintains an "overweight" rating on A-shares and H-shares, predicting an 8% and 3% upside respectively over the next 12 months [1] Market Dynamics - The Shanghai Composite Index has surged 26% since its low in April, with a year-to-date increase of 15% [2] - The market is witnessing a shift from bonds to stocks, with a 16 basis point rise in 10-year government bond yields since July 1 [2] - The normalization of profits for listed companies is expected to grow at a mid-to-high single-digit rate from 2025 to 2027, with onshore and offshore profits increasing by 3% and 6% respectively in the first half of the year [6] Institutional Participation - Domestic public funds have significantly increased their stock exposure, with cash ratios at a five-year low [8] - Domestic insurance companies have raised their stock holdings by 26% this year, while private fund management scales have grown from 5 trillion RMB to 5.9 trillion RMB [8] - Foreign investors have reached a cyclical high in their participation in Chinese stocks, particularly A-shares, with hedge fund inflows hitting a record high in August [8] Valuation and Sustainability - Goldman Sachs argues that while profit improvement can extend the bull market, it is not a necessary condition for further valuation-driven increases [9] - The current expected P/E ratios for MSCI China and the Shanghai Composite Index are 13.5 and 14.7, still below historical bull market valuation limits of 15-20 times [9] - The foundation for a "slow bull" market is stronger than ever, supported by market reforms and the introduction of long-term capital [12] Future Potential - There is significant potential for incremental capital inflow into the Chinese stock market, as household asset allocation heavily favors real estate and cash over stocks [15] - If institutional ownership in A-shares rises to the average levels of emerging and developed markets, it could lead to an influx of 14 trillion to 30 trillion RMB [15] - Goldman Sachs continues to favor structural themes such as AI and shareholder returns, maintaining an "overweight" stance on sectors like TMT, consumer services, insurance, and materials [17]

东吴证券首席经济学家芦哲对记者分析称，尽管美联储主席在FOMC（联邦公开市场委员会）中对货币政策决议只有一票，在形式上与其他委 员一致，但作为美联储的核心人物，其无论是在对内设置会议议程与引导讨论，还是在对外沟通表态上，均能对货币政策整体风向产生举足轻 重的影响。由于鲍威尔任期即将于2026年5月到期，因此选择一位更加鸽派的主席候选人成为了特朗普目前对美联储独立性干预最直接的手 段。 从种种迹象来看，美联储独立性面临的挑战才刚开始，一场更大的风暴或在酝酿。 图片来源：新华社 美联储独立性风暴暗流涌动。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间9月16日，美国白宫发言人表示，特朗普政府将就法院阻止撤换美联储理事莉萨·库克的裁决提出上诉。此前美国联 邦上诉法院裁定，阻止美国总统特朗普在美联储议息会议召开前将理事莉萨·库克撤职。 与此同时，特朗普提名的美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰于16日宣誓就职，火速参与美联储9月利率决议，他与库克共处美联储会议桌的同一个角落， 两人之间仅隔着1名理事。 而到了明年，美联储主席鲍威尔将卸任，特朗普将通过提名新任主席对美联储施加更大影响。 罢免库克事件争议重重 特朗普政府罢免库克一案被视为对美联储独立性的 ...

大摩闭门会：本轮牛市，外资怎么办，十五五规划的前瞻 20250915 摘要 八月经济数据疲软，预计三四季度经济增速放缓至 4.5%左右，或将促 使新增政策出台以托底经济，但预计政策规模相对温和，可能在 5,000 亿至 1 万亿人民币之间。 十五五规划纲要预计将包含高水平开放措施，如降低关税和准入限制至 零，并计划到 2030 年将消费增加 30%至 10 万亿美元，旨在通过供给 侧改革和社保统筹改革刺激经济增长。 欧洲长线投资者对中国市场持中性配置态度，受地缘政治影响，增持意 愿不强，更关注印度和拉美市场。对冲基金则更灵活，关注交易性主题， 通过选股增加配置。 中国通胀完成度约为 40%，预计大规模再通胀拐点要到 2026 年底之后。 反内卷措施旨在修复企业 ROE，但需从需求侧发力以实现全面再通胀。 八月份数据显示居民新增存款低于季节性，非银产品存款上升，表明居 民存款向权益资产迁移初现迹象，但其持续性取决于政策趋势和盈利回 升。 美国投资人对中国市场的兴趣显著提升，主要由于中国在科技创新领域 的领先地位以及政策制定者对资本市场的呵护态度，但实际配置尚未跟 上。 名胜中国指数连续三个季度业绩符合预期，A ...

Group 1 - The effectiveness of traditional monetary policy in suppressing inflation is being challenged, with increased risks of the U.S. economy entering a re-inflation phase due to the influence on the Federal Reserve's independence [1] - The performance of the CSI Artificial Intelligence Theme Index has garnered market attention, achieving a total return of 63.28% from January 1, 2020, to September 5, 2025, with an annualized return of 15.14% [1] - The market focus is shifting from "mobile internet+" to "artificial intelligence+", indicating potential upward space despite current market activity being below historical peaks [2] Group 2 - In the land market, major real estate companies' total land acquisition reached 449.8 billion yuan from January to August 2025, a year-on-year increase of 63.48%, although still below levels from 2022 and 2023 [3] - The export growth to ASEAN and the EU has shown an upward trend, with high growth in integrated circuits and ship exports, despite a slight overall weakening in exports [3] - The banking sector is facing significant pressure on certificate of deposit supply, with weak credit issuance and reduced government bond supply, leading to low asset utilization [3]

Group 1 - The report highlights the impact of the "Federal Reserve independence shock" on the U.S. economy, emphasizing direct and indirect interference with the Fed's operations [3] - It suggests that the traditional economic tools to suppress inflation may be compromised, potentially leading to a "re-inflation" scenario in the U.S. economy [3] - The report indicates that the dollar's status as a reserve currency and the credibility of U.S. institutions may be affected, with commodity markets, especially precious metals, likely benefiting from global investment diversification trends [3] Group 2 - The report discusses the August inflation data, noting a negative CPI of -0.4% and a narrowing PPI decline of -2.9%, indicating a divergence in inflation trends [5][25] - It points out that the core CPI has shown resilience, with a continuous increase over four months, reflecting a mild recovery in domestic demand [5][25] - The report emphasizes that the negative inflation implies a passive rise in real interest rates, which may prompt the central bank to lower financing costs for the real economy [5][25] Group 3 - The report on Hangzhou Oxygen Plant (杭氧股份) indicates a steady performance in H1 2025, with revenue of 73.27 billion and a net profit of 4.79 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.92% and 9.61% respectively [19][40] - It highlights the industrial gas segment's revenue growth of 14% and a gross margin of 21.18%, suggesting a potential bottom reversal in the industrial gas market [19][41] - The equipment segment shows promising results, with a significant increase in orders for petrochemical equipment, indicating successful overseas expansion [19][42] Group 4 - The report on Youyou Green Energy (优优绿能) emphasizes the company's focus on high-power charging modules, projecting revenues of 13.5 billion, 16.2 billion, and 19.5 billion for 2025-2027, with a net profit forecast of 2.0 billion, 3.0 billion, and 4.1 billion respectively [11][35] - It notes the strong overseas market performance, with a gross margin of 50.2% for international sales, significantly higher than domestic margins [11][33] - The report highlights the company's commitment to R&D, with a focus on product innovation and a high R&D expense ratio compared to sales and management costs [11][34] Group 5 - The report on Longxin General (隆鑫通用) indicates a robust performance in H1 2025, with revenue of 97.52 billion and a net profit of 10.74 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 27.21% and 82.26% respectively [12][36] - It highlights the successful overseas expansion of the "Wuji" brand, with significant growth in sales and a strong marketing presence across various platforms [12][37] - The report projects an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027, estimating net profits of 19.06 billion, 23.07 billion, and 27.13 billion, reflecting the company's strong growth trajectory [12][39]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup indicates that the appointment of a pro-reflation figure as Japan's next Prime Minister will not hinder the normalization of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy [1] Group 1: Currency Exchange Rate Expectations - Analysts, including Osamu Takashima, predict that the narrowing of the interest rate differential between the US and Japan may exert downward pressure on the USD/JPY exchange rate over time [1] - The USD/JPY exchange rate is expected to peak around 150 this summer before retreating to approximately 140 in the fourth quarter [1] - In a risk-on environment, the downward pressure on the yen is increasing, as the Fed's potential rate cuts could boost the US stock market [1] Group 2: Key Levels for USD/JPY - The current outlook suggests limited downside for the USD/JPY exchange rate, with a potential bottom around 145 [1] - The key resistance level for the USD/JPY exchange rate remains at 148 [1]

Macro and Strategy Research - The U.S. economy is experiencing a shift in the balance of risks between inflation and employment, with a potential monetary policy shift expected in September. The focus is on August's non-farm payroll and inflation data, as well as adjustments to the annual non-farm benchmark [2] - In Europe, economic expectations are improving, and stable inflation allows the European Central Bank (ECB) to maintain current policy rates. ECB President Lagarde indicated that trade negotiations are not posing significant threats to monetary policy [2] Domestic Economy - Domestic economic growth slowed in July due to extreme weather and policy expectations, characterized by strong external demand and weak internal demand. Future external demand growth is expected to be supported by a weakening U.S. demand and a reshaped long-term trade landscape [3] - The domestic policy environment emphasizes stabilizing market expectations and strengthening the domestic circulation, with structural monetary policies focusing on inclusive finance and technological innovation [3][4] Fixed Income Research - In August, the central bank injected a net liquidity of 386.5 billion yuan, maintaining low funding prices. The issuance of interest rate bonds decreased to 3 trillion yuan, with net financing increasing to 1.7 trillion yuan [6][7] - The bond market is expected to face pressure from external demand uncertainties and "anti-involution" measures, with a focus on the stability of the funding environment in September [8] Industry Research - The medical insurance payment management method was introduced in August, and the 11th batch of centralized procurement is progressing. The medical care CPI in July was 100.5, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5% [9][10] - The pharmaceutical manufacturing industry reported a cumulative revenue of 1,401.07 billion yuan from January to July, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%, while cumulative profits fell by 2.6% [10] - The upcoming World Lung Cancer Conference (WCLC) is expected to provide opportunities for innovation in the pharmaceutical and medical device sectors, with a focus on companies benefiting from optimized procurement rules and the recovery of domestic demand [10]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector experienced a significant increase of 7.16% from August 25 to August 29, ranking among the top in all primary industries [1][2]. Industry Summary Non-Ferrous Metal Sector Performance - The small metals sector rose by 12.02%, the precious metals sector increased by 7.22%, and the industrial metals sector saw a rise of 6.95% during the same period [1][2]. Copper Market Insights - As of August 29, copper prices were reported at $9,902 per ton on the London Metal Exchange (LME), reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.08% [3]. - Domestic copper smelting plants are expected to face significant maintenance pressures in September, with a cautious optimism regarding demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" season [3]. Aluminum Market Insights - The LME aluminum price was reported at $2,619 per ton, a slight decrease of 0.11% from the previous week [4]. - The theoretical operating capacity of China's electrolytic aluminum industry reached 44.035 million tons, indicating a slight increase in supply [4][5]. Gold Market Insights - As of August 29, COMEX gold closed at $3,516.10 per ounce, marking a week-on-week increase of 2.89% [6]. - The recent actions by former President Trump to challenge the independence of the Federal Reserve may create a precedent for future presidential interventions in monetary policy, potentially boosting gold prices [6].