Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of geopolitical dynamics and Trump administration policies on global markets in 2026, highlighting key investment themes such as global monetary and fiscal dynamics, and a potential long-term commodity cycle [3][6]. Investment Themes - Geopolitical fragmentation will continue to influence markets, but asset class returns may not be significantly affected. The focus will remain on underlying fundamentals despite policy challenges [6][7]. - Global monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, with predictions of three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, while emerging market central banks may also lower rates [7][8]. - Fiscal policies are anticipated to support market conditions, with increased government spending, particularly in defense and infrastructure, contributing positively to risk assets [7][8]. Commodity Cycle - A potential long-term commodity cycle is beginning, with strong performances in precious metals like gold and silver, and industrial metals like copper expected to continue rising due to geopolitical dynamics and economic stability [8][9]. AI Investment Shift - The focus of AI investment is shifting from "AI enablers" to "AI beneficiaries," with sectors like healthcare expected to benefit significantly from AI applications, enhancing productivity and efficiency [10][11]. - The industrial and financial sectors are also seen as beneficiaries of AI investments, with industrial firms supporting infrastructure for AI-related energy demands and financial institutions leveraging AI for efficiency gains [11][12]. Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is experiencing a record issuance, with expectations of continued strong demand for government and corporate bonds. The yield curve is likely to steepen, favoring short- to medium-duration bonds [14][15]. - Emerging market bonds are viewed positively due to favorable absolute yields and increasing demand, with expectations of outperforming other debt instruments despite last year's strong performance [15][16].

近日，宏利投资管理（Manulife Investment Management）股票与多元资产首席投资官兼高级投资组合经理内森·索夫特（Nathan W.Thooft）在接受第一财经 专访时表示，除了地缘政治和特朗普政府政策等交易主题将继续主导外，全球货币和财政动态，以及潜在的长期大宗商品周期，都值得关注。与此同时，对 于当前热议的人工智能（AI）投资，索夫特认为，当前的AI投资热与互联网泡沫时期并不相同，未来市场将从主要的"AI赋能者"受益，更加转向"AI受益 者"（AI beneficiaries），即那些通过提高生产力、效率和应用AI而实际获益的领域和企业。 展望未来，索夫特强调，市场也将从主要"AI赋能者"受益，转向强调所谓的 "AI受益者"。 在刚刚经历了动荡且瞬息万变的一年后，2026年开年，地缘政治动态和特朗普政策议程再次扰动全球市场。接下来，这些因素将如何影响各大类资产走势？ 还有哪些重要的投资主题值得关注？ 这些投资主题值得关注 索夫特表示，全球范围内，不仅限于美国，今年将持续出现政治经济与地缘政治动态的全球碎片化现象。但这不一定意味着资产类别回报会受到影响。例 如，正如去年，尽管存在地缘 ...

Market Overview - On January 19, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.29%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.05%, the STAR Market 50 fell by 0.48%, the CSI 1000 rose by 0.4%, the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.7%, and the Hang Seng Index dropped by 1.05% [3][4] - The best-performing sectors on January 19 were basic chemicals (+2.7%), oil and petrochemicals (+2.08%), electric equipment (+1.84%), automobiles (+1.7%), and social services (+1.63%). The worst-performing sectors were computers (-1.55%), telecommunications (-0.96%), banking (-0.6%), pharmaceuticals and biology (-0.52%), and electronics (-0.49%) [3][4] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on January 19 was 27,322 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 2.292 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [3][4] Important Insights Macroeconomic Analysis - Latin America is characterized as an export-oriented economy for agricultural and mineral products while importing manufactured goods. The commodity cycle significantly influences total demand through both export and capital expenditure channels [5] - The market anticipates that exports may drive economic growth in 2026 [5] Fixed Income Analysis - The current R007 weighted interest rate is around 1.50%, which reflects both the central bank's preferred pricing (DR007) and liquidity friction between banks and non-banks (the spread between R007 and DR007). It is advised not to hold overly optimistic expectations [7][8] - The market sentiment is relatively optimistic, but there is a cautious stance compared to previous assessments [10]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the energy and non-ferrous metal industries, focusing on commodity cycles and market dynamics in 2026 [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Commodity Cycle Dynamics**: The acceleration of commodity cycle rotation is influenced by global economic recovery and pandemic impacts, similar to the commodity volatility seen after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in the 1970s. It is challenging to determine the current cycle position, necessitating a comprehensive analysis of various commodities to identify patterns [1][2]. - **Oil Prices and Commodity Volatility**: Oil prices are highly correlated with overall commodity volatility, serving as a benchmark for energy costs. Gold has started to rise as a leading indicator, but other commodities have not followed suit significantly, likely due to the lack of a clear upward trend in oil prices [1][4]. - **Gold Price Influences**: The price of gold is affected by the transition between the old and new world orders. Currently, gold is viewed as a safe-haven asset amid the remnants of the old world wealth. Historical trends show that after the decoupling of the dollar from gold in 1971, significant price increases in gold and other commodities occurred due to excessive dollar issuance [5]. - **U.S. Treasury Credit and Precious Metals**: The loosening of U.S. Treasury credit post-2009 financial crisis has led to increased market preference for precious metals as a hedge. Despite multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, Treasury yields have not significantly decreased, indicating a weakening preference for Treasury securities [6]. - **Future Gold Price Trends**: A long-term downward expectation for the U.S. dollar index, driven by an expanding trade deficit and potential appreciation of the Renminbi, suggests that gold prices may have room to rise [7]. - **Oil Supply and Demand**: Short-term oil supply and demand are heavily influenced by political factors, while long-term demand changes will have a more significant impact on price volatility. Current U.S. inventory increases and stable Chinese supply contribute to short-term price stability, but long-term demand fluctuations could lead to potential volatility [8]. - **U.S. Oil Production and Price Forecast**: U.S. oil production has seen a year-on-year increase of approximately 300,000 barrels, but the number of drilling rigs is declining. The forecast for oil prices in 2026 is expected to fluctuate between $40 and $70 per barrel, with a more stable range of $50 to $70 per barrel if political factors are excluded [9][10]. Additional Important Insights - **Energy Costs in China**: Domestic energy costs are stable, with sufficient supply in coal and natural gas, leading to no significant price increases. Electricity prices are expected to have limited rebound potential due to overall cost constraints [11]. - **Non-Ferrous Metals Market**: The aluminum market is expected to remain in a supply-demand imbalance due to limited domestic production capacity and stable demand growth. Copper prices are projected to range between $11,000 and $15,000 per ton in 2026, driven by increasing demand in power construction and unstable production in major copper mining regions [12][13]. - **Domestic Economic Impact on Metal Demand**: The demand for non-ferrous metals is closely tied to domestic economic development, particularly in sectors like real estate and automotive. A positive GDP outlook suggests continued growth in aluminum demand [14]. - **Global Copper Inventory and Consumption**: As of September 2025, global electrolytic copper inventory was 1.451 million tons, with a consumption increase of 3% year-on-year, indicating a stable demand environment [15]. - **Challenges in the Copper Market**: The domestic copper market faces challenges such as resource scarcity and price increases affecting downstream procurement. Additionally, cyclical patterns in the manufacturing sector impact demand [16][17]. - **Cable Demand in China**: There is strong demand for cables driven by investments in power generation and infrastructure, with a rebound in terminal electrical equipment demand noted [18]. - **Silver Market Dynamics**: The silver market is influenced by financial attributes, with increased speculative demand as gold prices rise. Industrial demand, particularly from photovoltaic and electronics sectors, is expected to support silver prices [19]. - **Rare Earth Industry Development**: The rare earth industry in China is positioned as a competitive sector, benefiting from trends in high-end manufacturing and energy equipment [20]. - **Commodity Market Trends**: The commodity market is experiencing structural demand resonance rather than short-term volatility, with significant implications from U.S. monetary policy and inflation on commodity prices [21]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Suggested investments include resource companies like PetroChina and CNOOC, integrated firms such as Hengli and Rongsheng, and non-ferrous metal companies like Yun Aluminum and Huadong Cable. Additionally, companies in the rare earth sector are noted for their potential [22].

后面几年，管浩阳从钢铁出发，把能力圈逐步拓展到建筑、建材、有色、化工、煤炭等多个行业，用九 年的深耕形成了全周期品的研究图谱，也担当起西部利得基金研究部周期组组长。 他坦言，尽管周期行业同属大类资产，但不同子行业间的壁垒极高。比如钢铁是典型的国内周期，关注 点集中在政策与需求，而有色则是海外周期主导，比如铜、铝的价格更多受全球供需影响。此外，有色 行业细分品类众多，贵金属、工业金属、能源金属的逻辑差异巨大，这种跨领域的研究，既是对能力的 考验，也是对耐心的磨练。 而此次他拟管的西部利得资源鑫选混合，是他在深耕了九年周期股研究后，担任基金经理的第一只产 品。 西部利得基金/供图 当逆全球化风潮愈演愈烈，资源品的战略重要性正在得到市场共识。 2020年以来，一场从煤炭到黄金，再到铜、银、稀土等资源品的大宗商品行情迅速扩散，资源股投资重 回投资者视野。近日，证券时报记者专访了西部利得基金新任基金经理管浩阳，从研究员到即将掌舵新 基金西部利得资源鑫选混合，他正将历经九年打磨的周期股研究框架投入实战。 在管浩阳看来，当前时点投资资源股，供给比需求重要，贝塔比个股重要。这场已经启动五年的大宗商 品行情可能仍有机会，资源品 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Oil and Petrochemical Sector - Global crude oil supply is expected to increase by approximately 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026, down from a 2.7 million barrels per day increase in 2025, with OPEC+ planning to increase production by 1.2 million barrels per day [1][2] - Global crude oil demand is projected to remain around 1.1 million barrels per day in 2026, consistent with 2025 levels, driven primarily by China and India, which are expected to increase demand by over 200,000 barrels per day and 300,000 barrels per day, respectively [1][2] - OPEC+ shifted its strategy in 2025 to focus on market share, leading to significant production increases, but future adjustments to supply dynamics may be limited due to idle capacity constraints [1][4] Key Insights on OPEC+ Strategy - OPEC+ plans to maintain a monthly average production increase of approximately 140,000 tons through the first three quarters of 2026, but may temporarily halt production increases in Q1 2026 due to seasonal factors [4] - The limited idle capacity of OPEC+ will restrict its ability to adjust overall supply dynamics, with offshore oil and gas projects in the Americas becoming the primary source of new supply [4] Impact of Russia and Other Countries - Despite sanctions, Russia has managed to maintain its crude oil export levels through offshore floating storage, although the Ukraine conflict has significantly reduced its refined oil exports, increasing the price spread for gasoline and diesel in Europe [5] - Other countries in the Americas, such as Canada, Brazil, Argentina, and Guyana, are expected to contribute significantly to supply growth, with Guyana's Yellowtail project adding 250,000 barrels per day [5] Domestic Oil Consumption in China - Domestic gasoline and diesel consumption in China has decreased by 4%-5% due to the impact of renewable energy alternatives, while aviation fuel demand continues to grow at around 3% [6] - The operating rate of Shandong independent refineries has decreased due to reduced advantages from low-priced imports from Russia and Iran, leading to a balanced but declining overall supply-demand situation for refined oil [6] Natural Gas Market Trends - Global LNG supply is expected to increase in 2026, with prices potentially decreasing; average LNG prices in China and Europe are projected to drop from $12 per million British thermal units to around $10 [3][9] - The Henry Hub price for U.S. natural gas is expected to rise to around $4, influenced by European energy structure adjustments and increased U.S. LNG export projects [9] Coal Market Dynamics - China's coal demand is expected to rebound in 2026, driven by a projected 5.3% increase in electricity generation, which will boost coal consumption for power generation by 0.5% to 1% [14][15] - Domestic coal supply is anticipated to increase by approximately 30-40 million tons, while demand is expected to rise by about 69 million tons, potentially leading to a decline in port inventories [15] Price Trends for Coal - The average price of thermal coal is expected to rise in 2026, with predictions indicating a central price around 688 RMB per ton, reflecting a recovery from earlier lows [16] - Coking coal prices are also expected to increase, with central prices projected between 1,600 to 1,800 RMB per ton for low-sulfur coking coal [16] Investment Considerations - The steel and related industries are deemed to have sustained investment value due to high dividend yields and a relatively optimistic outlook for the thermal and coking coal markets in the coming year [17]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Aviation Industry - The adjustment of the China-Japan route impacts airlines and ticket prices, with the route accounting for 3% of the total market share. The removal of flights has led to a shift in capacity to domestic flights, causing ticket prices to stabilize or slightly decline from previous growth of 2-3% [2] - Airlines have extended the free ticket refund period for the China-Japan route until March 31, 2026, resulting in short-term disruptions but overall limited impact due to the small number of flights removed [2] - The recommendation for airline stocks includes China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and Air China, followed by Huaxia Airlines, Juneyao Airlines, and Spring Airlines [2] Retail and Duty-Free Market - The Shanghai Airport duty-free store bidding process has sparked discussions, with potential new operators being introduced as existing shareholders oppose the bid. This could lead to increased revenue for Shanghai Airport [4] - The bidding process may benefit Shanghai Airport regardless of the outcome, as the expected revenue from the bidding exceeds investment returns [4] Shipping and Bulk Freight - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reached a two-year high of 2,854 points, driven by the upcoming production of the West Manganese Mine and concentrated shipments from Australian mines [5] - The outlook for the bulk shipping market remains positive, with recommendations for stocks such as Haitong Development, Pacific Shipping, and China Merchants Energy [5] Express Delivery Industry - Jitu's volume growth in Southeast Asia reached 78% during the Double Eleven shopping festival, with new market growth at 83%, indicating strong performance [6] - The express delivery sector is experiencing a shift, with leading companies increasing market share while lower-tier companies see declines. Zhongtong has returned to double-digit growth in October and November, making it an attractive investment opportunity [7] Commodity Market Insights Metal Market - The commodity cycle since 2020 is not yet halfway through, with expectations for a bull market in 2026 driven by a weakening dollar and supply chain disruptions [8] - The investment strategy for 2026 focuses on energy metals, nickel, cobalt, gold, copper, aluminum, and strategic metals, influenced by energy revolutions and geopolitical tensions [11] - Specific insights include: - Nickel and cobalt prices are expected to remain high due to quota systems and unexpected demand for energy storage [8] - Copper's supply issues are critical, with both financial and commodity attributes driving its value [8] - Aluminum is anticipated to break out of a three-year range due to low inventory and increased demand from industrial and energy sectors [8] Coal Market - The coal market is currently under pressure, with prices for Shanxi coal dropping by 27 yuan, and overall coal inventory rising but still below last year's levels [13][14] - Electricity consumption has decreased year-on-year, but there is a seasonal uptick in demand [15] - The national coal market conference indicated a balanced supply-demand outlook for 2026, with a focus on long-term contracts and import controls to stabilize prices [16] Future Projections - The overall sentiment for the metal sector in 2026 is optimistic, emphasizing the importance of energy revolutions and geopolitical factors for long-term investment opportunities [9]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report focuses on the relationship between Brazil's commodity export cycle and the fluctuations of the Brazilian Real, aiming to reveal the transmission logic and influencing mechanisms between the two [9]. - By analyzing Brazil's economic structure, commodity export cycle, and the historical trends of the Real, the report provides insights for commodity research and investment strategies [2][50]. Group 2: Understanding the Brazilian Economy Economic Aggregate - Brazil is an emerging market country with a GDP of over $2 trillion and ranks 10th among the world's largest economies, accounting for about 2.0% of the global GDP in 2024 [11][13]. - Historically, Brazil's GDP growth has experienced rapid development, debt crises, and periods of slowdown, with the current growth rate gradually declining [15]. Economic Structure - In terms of industrial structure, Brazil's economy is dominated by the service sector, followed by industry, and agriculture serves as the foundation. In 2024, the service, industry, and agriculture sectors accounted for 59.31%, 21.33%, and 5.58% of GDP, respectively [17]. - From a demand - side perspective, Brazil's economic structure is characterized by stable consumption growth, significant fluctuations in investment and trade. In 2024, final consumption expenditure accounted for about 82.6% of GDP, capital formation accounted for about 16.9%, and the net export of goods and services accounted for about 0.5% [22][24]. - Commodity exports play a crucial role in Brazil's economy, with a strong correlation between net exports and commodity net exports. In 2024, the net export of goods was about $742 billion, while the net import of services was about $546 billion [27]. Group 3: Brazil's Commodity Export Cycle Commodity Export Structure - Brazil's commodity exports are highly dependent on commodities, with iron ore, soybeans, crude oil, and sugar being the top four export products. In 2024, these major commodities contributed over $1800 billion in foreign exchange earnings [34][36]. - The underlying reason for Brazil's high - commodity export dependence is its abundant natural resources, including significant agricultural and mineral resources [38][39]. Commodity Export Quantity and Price - The sources of quantity and price contributions vary among different commodities. For sugar, crude oil, and beef, changes in export volume contribute more to export revenue growth, while for iron ore, soybeans, coffee, and others, changes in export prices contribute more [42]. - Historically, the price fluctuations of commodities have had a more significant impact on Brazil's export revenue than changes in export volume, and the RJ/CRB commodity index is positively correlated with Brazil's commodity export revenue [42][48]. Group 4: Real's Rise and Fall and Commodity Export Cycle Review 2001 - 2011: Rising Export Revenue and Appreciating Real - Due to the rapid growth of Chinese and global demand, Brazil's commodity export revenue increased by $1954 billion from 2001 to 2011, with exports to China increasing by $424 billion, accounting for 22% of the total increase [50]. - The Real strengthened due to the commodity super - cycle and the Lula government's macro - economic policies. The demand - pull effect was stronger than the negative impact of currency appreciation on export competitiveness [50][52]. 2011 - 2016: Declining Export Revenue and Depreciating Real - Affected by the slowdown of global and Chinese economic growth, oversupply of major commodities, and the expected shift in the Fed's monetary policy, Brazil's commodity export revenue decreased by about 29% from 2011 to 2016 [62]. - The Real depreciated significantly due to the deterioration of Brazil's domestic economic fundamentals and the shift in the Fed's monetary policy. The depreciation of the exchange rate did not significantly promote commodity exports [62]. 2016 - Present: Rising Export Revenue and Depreciating Real - Since 2016, with the global economic recovery, the stable growth of the Chinese economy, and the J - curve effect of the Real's depreciation, Brazil's trade balance has improved, and commodity export revenue has increased rapidly [76]. - From 2016 to 2024, Brazil's total commodity export revenue increased by $1575 billion, with an increase of $592 billion in the Chinese market, accounting for about 38%. The export revenue of crude oil has increased significantly [76]. Group 5: Insights for Commodity Research - The global commodity demand cycle is the decisive factor for commodity prices and Brazil's export performance, with a far greater impact than exchange - rate fluctuations [4][5]. - The boosting effect of exchange - rate depreciation on Brazil's exports has limitations and lag, and the magnification effect on local - currency earnings can support the expansion of commodity production capacity and provide hedging opportunities [5]. - When the US dollar price of a specific commodity strengthens and the local currency depreciates simultaneously, one can focus on short - selling opportunities for commodities with clear downward drivers in fundamentals and a high proportion of Brazilian production capacity in global supply. Conversely, when the local currency appreciates and commodity prices remain low, one can focus on long - buying opportunities for commodities with clear upward drivers in fundamentals and a high proportion of Brazilian production capacity [6]. Group 6: Appendix: Real's Historical Review and Influencing Factors Historical Review of the Real's Trends - Since the 1970s - 1980s, Brazil has experienced periods of hyperinflation, currency reforms, and exchange - rate regime changes. The Real has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation, affected by factors such as the global economic environment, commodity prices, and domestic policies [96]. Influencing Factors of the Real - International financial environment and external monetary policies: Cross - border capital risk preferences, Fed's monetary policy, and commodity prices all affect the exchange rate of the Real. For example, during the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic, the Real depreciated rapidly due to the decrease in cross - border capital risk preferences [99][100][102]. - Brazil's economic fundamentals: Economic growth prospects, debt risks, and monetary policies also influence the Real. Brazil's current economic prospects are not very optimistic, with high debt risks and an inflation - targeting monetary policy framework [106][113][120].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the cyclical nature of commodity markets, emphasizing the importance of macroeconomic factors such as the dollar cycle, global economic growth quality, and policy changes in major economies, while analyzing historical trends and their implications for future commodity pricing [4][5][6]. Group 1: Historical Context of Commodity Cycles - Different eras have distinct dominant factors influencing commodity prices, with a review structured around significant events and changes in the global landscape [7]. - The 1970s marked a unique period of stagflation, initiated by the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, leading to a decoupling of the dollar from gold, resulting in a chaotic economic environment where commodity prices surged despite economic recession [11][12]. - The 1980s saw a recovery with the stabilization of the dollar and economic growth in the U.S., where commodity prices were positively correlated with GDP, particularly during the period of the Plaza Accord [15][16]. Group 2: Economic Growth and Commodity Prices - The relationship between commodity cycles and economic growth attributes is significant, with emerging economies and new growth drivers having a more substantial impact on commodity trends than inventory cycles [10]. - The early 2000s experienced a super bull market in commodities driven by China's industrialization and demand, with the CRB index rising from 200 to 480 before the financial crisis [21][23]. - Post-financial crisis, the period from 2008 to 2018 was characterized by China's stimulus measures, which temporarily boosted commodity prices, but ultimately led to overcapacity and a prolonged bear market [28][32]. Group 3: Current and Future Trends - The era of de-globalization, marked by U.S.-China tensions and the COVID-19 pandemic, has reinforced the monetary attributes of commodities, leading to a recent bull market in the CRB index [35][38]. - The relationship between the CRB index and China's economic cycles has weakened, indicating a shift in the dynamics of commodity demand and pricing [39]. - The long-term price range of commodities is influenced by their monetary attributes and cyclical properties, with potential for the CRB index to rise to a new range of 500-700 due to ongoing monetary expansion [47].

Core Insights - The article highlights the impressive investment performance of Ye Yong, who transitioned from a financial journalist to a fund manager, achieving returns of 73.07% and 51.75% for his funds in the past year [1][3]. Investment Philosophy - Ye Yong's investment philosophy can be summarized as "good companies, low prices, and hold on," emphasizing a comprehensive evaluation of companies based on various indicators such as historical development, team composition, core technology, market competitiveness, and financial data [8]. - He believes in the importance of not only holding quality stocks during market volatility but also having the courage to increase positions [8]. Market Approach - Ye Yong emphasizes the need to align with macro and industry cycles, focusing on market style, industry beta, and then individual stock alpha [10]. - He identifies three key investment areas based on macro cycle judgments: industrial metals (like copper and aluminum), traditional cyclical leaders in sectors such as chemicals and steel, and post-cycle sectors like food and real estate [12][13][15][17]. Investment Timing and Indicators - Ye Yong advises investors to pay attention to leading indicators such as PPI, inventory cycles, and credit pulses to identify cycle positions [19]. - He provides specific buy and sell signals, including futures price structures and significant quarterly gross margin improvements for leading companies [19]. Recovery Sequence - Different cyclical industries recover in varying sequences, with chemicals and cement leading, followed by semiconductor materials, and finally consumer-related sectors like automotive and aviation [21]. Long-term Perspective - Ye Yong advocates for a long-term investment approach, suggesting that investors may need to hold cyclical stocks for 3 to 5 years to realize substantial returns [23]. - He emphasizes the importance of strong cash flow and the ability of companies to survive downturns, ensuring they can rebound when the economy improves [24]. Conclusion - Ye Yong's diverse career background contributes to his unique perspective on cyclical investments, demonstrating that understanding macroeconomic trends and maintaining patience are crucial for long-term success in investing [28].