近期，知名经济学家洪灝在与瑞士宝盛的本年度收官对话中，展望了2026年的美股、A股市场，并重点剖析了AI、大宗商品及人民币等核心议题。 投资作业本课代表整理了要点如下: 1、现在说（美国AI）泡沫要破，可能还为时过早。但必须承认估值已经很贵了。那么历史上达到如此估值的高度次数屈指可数。 以及一般来说，这个估值水平， 美股未来7到10年的平均回报率往往只有个位数。 2、 从下半年开始，我们就建议客户把美股获利的部分转向非美市场。主要原因是 美股相对于其他市场的表现已经达到历史高位，再期待它持续跑赢，可 能不太现实。 3、我 相信如果投AI的话，我们会继续投现在已经崭露头角的公司，以及一些大型的从以前的科技、互联网公司转型成AI公司的领头羊。 以下是投资作业本课代表（微信ID：touzizuoyeben）整理的精华内容，分享给大家： 2026年只要经济不太差，A股值得期待 主持人：年初至今，上证和沪深300指数以及港股恒生指数涨了很多，在全球市场算是领先的。不过从十月开始，股指上升势头有所减弱，板块之间开始 轮动，比如科技类的成长股承压明显，反而价值股和周期股更受资金青睐。 4、如果AI故事继续，经济周期位置不变 ...

智通财经APP获悉，随着多策略对冲基金纷纷涌入波动剧烈的大宗商品市场以提升回报，Point72 Asset Management正考虑组建大宗商品业务部门。 据一位知情人士透露，在上月举办的年度投资者大会上，该公司创始人、亿万富豪Steve Cohen表示， 他开始将大宗商品视为Point72的下一个多元化发展方向。 需要注意的是，大宗商品交易向来伴随着高风险属性，其价格的大幅波动，对于不熟悉该资产类别周期 性特征的机构而言，往往难以承受。历史数据显示，在过往的大宗商品牛市周期中，对冲基金对该领域 的投资热情会急剧升温，但一旦市场行情逆转、价格暴跌，这些机构也会迅速撤离并关停相关业务。 近年来，地缘政治动荡、极端天气以及特朗普政府发动的贸易战导致能源、金属、咖啡和石油等资产价 格剧烈波动。在此背景下，手握巨额资金的多策略对冲基金正不断丰富投资策略矩阵，而大宗商品领域 也吸引了这类机构的广泛关注。 回顾发展历程，Point72及其前身SAC Capital Advisors早年专注于股票交易，但近年来开始加大在宏观 经济、量化策略、风险投资和私人信贷等领域的布局。截至目前，在其415亿美元的管理资产规模中， 约 ...

在Oddo BHF看来，全球矿业巨头力拓集团(Rio Tinto Group)在铜业务方面拥有"非常有吸引力的发展路 线图"，并且随着其位于几内亚(Guinea)的西芒杜(Simandou)大型项目逐步爬坡，力拓应能扩大铁矿石产 量。 来自花旗集团(Citigroup Inc.)的矿业分析师们表示，大宗商品贸易领军者嘉能可(Glencore Plc)是他们对 2026年的首选股票标的，并预计近期涨势强劲的该股在未来12个月该股将上涨约15%，主要因为该公司 正努力提升铜产量。 随着美国铜期货交易价格屡创新高，近年来长期低迷的欧洲铜类矿业股即将为自2016年以来的最佳年度 画上圆满句号。对全球股票市场的铜类股票多头势力而言，下一年能否继续强劲上涨且再度创下2016年 之后的最佳年份，可能取决于美国铜期货价格是否能不断刷新历史高位以及LME铜价能否在2026年持 续上涨至突破历史最高点位。 Oddo矿业分析师Maxime Kogge表示，他对明年矿业股票仍然持看多态度，但也警告称，亚洲经济如果 显著放缓可能会破坏市场情绪。"铜主题，在2026年应仍将是一个积极的驱动因素，也是最值得投资的 积极方向之一。"这位资深 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The Chinese private equity industry is transitioning from quantitative expansion to qualitative transformation, supported by the "Golden Yangtze" private equity empowerment plan launched by Changjiang Securities, Industrial Bank, and Securities Times [1] - As of October 2025, the private fund scale reached 22.05 trillion yuan, marking a significant increase of 1.31 trillion yuan from September, surpassing the previous historical peak of 20.81 trillion yuan in September 2023 [3] - The surge in private equity is primarily driven by private securities investment funds, which saw a record high of 7.01 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 1.04 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 17.42% [3] Group 2: Market Trends and Opportunities - The A-share market has experienced significant growth this year, with various sectors, including precious metals and industrial metals, performing well, creating a favorable environment for private equity [3] - The "Golden Yangtze" initiative aims to provide comprehensive services to private fund managers, facilitating connections between long-term capital and quality managers [6] - The commodity market is viewed as having strategic allocation opportunities due to factors such as resource scarcity, low supply growth, and a recovering global economy, which are expected to drive demand for commodities [9][10] Group 3: Investment Strategies and Insights - Factor investing is entering a new era, with a noticeable decline in factor momentum and a divergence in factors across different market segments [7][8] - Private fund managers emphasize the importance of focusing on undervalued sectors and long-term value creation, suggesting a shift towards low-valuation areas for better returns [11][12] - The ongoing technological revolution, particularly in AI, is seen as a critical opportunity for China's economic growth, with a focus on innovation and investment in leading companies [13]

Group 1 - Non-ferrous metal concept stocks declined in early trading, with Luoyang Molybdenum and China Aluminum falling over 3%, and Huayou Cobalt down over 2% [1] - Non-ferrous related ETFs dropped approximately 2% [1] Group 2 - Various non-ferrous metal ETFs showed declines, with the Non-ferrous Metal ETF at 1.789, down 0.035 or 1.92%, and the Non-ferrous Metal ETF Fund at 1.743, down 0.031 or 1.75% [2] - Brokerages forecast that copper and cobalt prices will continue to rise due to supply tightness, while lithium prices are expected to benefit from unexpectedly high energy storage demand [2] - Despite fluctuations in precious metal prices, the overall bullish outlook remains unchanged, supported by loose liquidity and increased efforts by countries to secure key resources [2]

最后是铜价，周三刚创11540美元的历史新高，周四就小幅下跌，高盛直接警告涨势难持久。这里的关 键是，这次铜价上涨更多是预期驱动，大家都在赌未来供应紧张，而不是当下的基本面真的缺铜。虽然 中长期看，新能源和AI发展需要大量铜，全球铜矿产量增长缓慢，2026年供需缺口还会扩大，但短期 来看，高盛说得没错，现在并没有出现实质性的供应短缺。帮主给中长线投资者的建议是，别被历史新 高吓住，也别盲目跟风卖，铜的工业需求基本面很扎实，电力和新能源领域的需求一直在支撑，这次回 调其实是个观察机会，等价格稳下来，那些有铜矿资源的龙头企业依然值得关注。 说到这里，肯定有朋友问，帮主，中长线到底该怎么操作？三个核心策略记好了，都是基于20年的观察 总结。第一，分品种定方向，原油逢高减仓，重点看OPEC+后续是否减产；白银和铜逢回调布局，盯 着美联储降息落地和库存变化。第二，抓核心逻辑不纠结短期波动，原油看供应过剩是否缓解，白银看 工业需求和降息落地，铜看矿产供应和新能源需求增速，中长线投资拼的是趋势判断，不是盯盘看日内 涨跌。第三，避开单一品种风险，大宗商品之间可以做搭配，比如配置少量黄金对冲波动，再搭配铜这 类有基本面支撑的工 ...

Core Viewpoint - The commodity market is expected to show a divergence in trends in 2025, with significant differences also observed among equity market sectors. The challenge for ordinary investors lies in effectively capitalizing on opportunities during a bull market. Looking ahead to 2026, there are questions regarding how various asset classes will perform and what investment opportunities may arise [1][6]. Event Details - The event titled "2026: Trends and Strategies - Investment Carnival (Shenzhen Station)" is organized by Asset Management Network and Investor Private Sharing Meeting to discuss market opportunities for 2026 [1][6]. - The event will take place on December 14, 2026, from 15:00 to 17:00 at Futian District, Shenzhen [10][12]. - The participation fee for the event is 200 yuan per person [4][13]. - A dinner networking session will follow the sharing session, with limited spots available [5][13]. Guest Speakers - Di Ge, a prominent financial commentator and author for Asset Management Network and Investor Private Sharing Meeting, will share insights on key investment opportunities in the commodity market for 2026, combining fundamental and technical analysis [3][8]. - Hu Yuwen, a chief economist at a private equity fund in Shenzhen and former head of a listed brokerage research institute, will provide important insights regarding the stock market for the upcoming year [9][11]. - Hu Yuzhi, a precious metals analyst from Zhongcai Futures, will also present a thematic analysis focusing on precious metals, particularly gold and silver, which have been focal points in the futures market this year [9][12].

Core Insights - Industrial metals, particularly copper, have shown strong performance in 2025, with the Industrial Metals ETF (560860) rising over 78% year-to-date as of December 2, 2025 [1] - The Industrial Metals ETF has reached a new high in size at 6.167 billion yuan and a new high in shares at 4.365 billion [1] - The ETF has seen a net inflow of 282 million yuan, with over 3.4 billion yuan accumulated in the last 60 days [1] Market Dynamics - The Federal Reserve has entered a quiet period before its meeting, with market expectations for interest rate cuts exceeding 86%, indicating a likely easing of monetary policy [1] - Goldman Sachs believes that the decision for a rate cut in December is already "locked in" [1] - Dongguan Securities notes that the supply-demand dynamics for industrial metals like copper and aluminum are improving, suggesting continued upward momentum in prices [1] Price Outlook - Zhongyou Securities anticipates that prices for copper and cobalt will continue to rise due to supply tightness, maintaining a bullish outlook for the overall market [1] - The investment interest in non-ferrous metals and commodities is expected to persist amid liquidity easing and increased efforts by countries to secure key resources [1] Index Composition - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index include major players like Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and China Aluminum, collectively accounting for 54.56% of the index [2] - The Industrial Metals ETF closely tracks this index, providing exposure to leading companies in copper, aluminum, and rare earths, allowing external investors to capitalize on cyclical and policy-driven opportunities [2]

Group 1 - Non-ferrous metal concept stocks have strengthened, with Luoyang Molybdenum rising over 6%, Zijin Mining up over 5%, and Northern Rare Earth increasing over 3% [1] - Mining and non-ferrous related ETFs have risen approximately 3% due to market influences [1] Group 2 - Several mining and non-ferrous metal ETFs reported the following price changes: - Mining ETF 561330: Current price 1.753, up 0.052 (3.06%) - Mining ETF 159690: Current price 1.792, up 0.052 (2.99%) - Non-ferrous 50 ETF 159652: Current price 1.531, up 0.043 (2.89%) - Non-ferrous metal ETF 512400: Current price 1.754, up 0.050 (2.93%) - Non-ferrous metal ETF fund 516650: Current price 1.728, up 0.048 (2.86%) - Non-ferrous 60 ETF 159881: Current price 1.702, up 0.047 (2.84%) - Non-ferrous metal ETF 159871: Current price 1.779, up 0.048 (2.77%) - Non-ferrous leader ETF 159876: Current price 0.909, up 0.024 (2.71%) [2] Group 3 - Brokerages indicate that in the fourth quarter, copper and cobalt prices are expected to continue rising due to supply tightness, while lithium prices will benefit from unexpectedly high energy storage demand. Although precious metal prices have experienced fluctuations, the overall bullish outlook remains unchanged [2] - With the backdrop of loose liquidity and countries strengthening their efforts to secure key resources, the investment enthusiasm for non-ferrous and other bulk commodities is expected to continue [2]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the macroeconomic environment in China and the implications for various sectors, particularly focusing on technology and AI investments. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Macroeconomic Challenges**: The current economic situation in China is characterized by a mismatch in production relations, leading to issues such as overcapacity and insufficient effective demand. This has been a consistent theme among economists since mid-last year, with policies introduced in September aimed at addressing these issues, though they are seen as more of a stopgap rather than a solution to the core problems [1][2][3]. 2. **Production Relations vs. Productivity**: There is a critical distinction made between productivity improvements (especially through technology) and the underlying production relations. While technological advancements are essential, they do not necessarily resolve the existing mismatches in production relations, which may even worsen in certain scenarios [2][3][4]. 3. **AI and Capital Expenditure**: The rise of AI has led to significant capital expenditure in the U.S., which is not as pronounced in China. This investment is compared to past infrastructure investments by local governments in China, suggesting that while AI may provide short-term benefits, the long-term financial sustainability of such investments is questionable [5][6]. 4. **Market Dynamics and Investment Strategy**: The capital markets are currently driven by productivity, particularly in technology sectors. However, there is a warning that the current enthusiasm for AI stocks may be overblown, with potential bubbles forming. Investors are advised to consider a balanced approach, incorporating both high-growth tech stocks and more stable value stocks [7][8][9]. 5. **Sector Performance**: There is a notable performance difference between AI-related stocks and traditional sectors such as commodities and mining, which have shown better returns this year. Value stocks, particularly in the banking sector, have also performed well, suggesting a need for diversification beyond tech [10][11]. 6. **Long-term Economic Outlook**: The discussion highlights the uncertainty surrounding the sustainability of current economic trends, particularly in relation to AI and its impact on labor markets. There are signs of layoffs in tech sectors, indicating that the benefits of AI may not be as widespread as anticipated [12][13][14]. 7. **Investment in Gold and Silver**: The conversation touches on the rising prices of gold and silver, with a suggestion that these assets may serve as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. However, there are concerns about the long-term sustainability of gold prices, especially in light of recent central bank actions [20][21][22][23]. 8. **Cyclical Nature of Industries**: The potential for recovery in certain sectors, such as construction and materials, is discussed. Companies that maintain profitability during downturns may emerge stronger as weaker competitors exit the market [13][14][15]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - The discussion emphasizes the importance of understanding the cyclical nature of industries and the potential for recovery, even in currently struggling sectors. There is a call for investors to remain vigilant and adaptable in their strategies, considering both macroeconomic indicators and sector-specific dynamics [16][17][18][19]. - The historical context of economic cycles and the impact of government policies on market dynamics are also highlighted, suggesting that past experiences can inform current investment decisions [24][25][26][27][28][29][30]. - The potential for the Chinese yuan to gain strength in the global market is mentioned, which could influence investment strategies moving forward [27][28][29][30]. This summary encapsulates the key themes and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and investment considerations.