Macro News - Shanghai Stock Exchange aims to enhance the integration of artificial intelligence with core productivity, focusing on building advanced computing infrastructure and improving capital market functions to meet large-scale financing needs [1] - Central Huijin and its asset management plans saw their ETF holdings increase by over 200 billion yuan in a single quarter, reaching approximately 1.55 trillion yuan, providing support to the stock market [1] Industry News - The total scale of public funds in China reached 36.74 trillion yuan by the end of September 2025, marking the sixth historical high this year, with significant growth in stock and mixed funds [3] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes the need to improve the basic systems for commodity housing development, financing, and sales, aiming to enhance housing supply for urban workers and families in need [4] - OpenAI plans to submit an IPO application as early as the second half of 2026, with a potential valuation of around 1 trillion dollars and aims to raise at least 60 billion dollars [5] Sector Insights - CITIC Securities forecasts that supply tightness will likely drive up prices for copper and cobalt, while lithium prices may benefit from unexpected demand in energy storage [6] - Guosheng Securities notes that electricity prices for thermal power will see an overall increase in 2025, with expectations of improved performance in the third quarter [6] - Galaxy Securities highlights that the consumer electronics industry is navigating challenges and opportunities, with AI becoming a core driver of development, particularly in smart glasses and AI hardware [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant rise in the prices of non-ferrous metal stocks, driven by favorable macroeconomic factors and market sentiment following a meeting between the leaders of China and the U.S. [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - China Aluminum (02600) increased by 10.34%, reaching HKD 10.14 [1] - Ganfeng Lithium (01772) rose by 9.53%, reaching HKD 51.7 [1] - Jiangxi Copper (00358) saw a 5.97% increase, reaching HKD 34.78 [1] - Zijin Mining (02899) increased by 5.08%, reaching HKD 32.66 [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) rose by 4.38%, reaching HKD 17.38 [1] Group 2: Market Factors - The LME copper price showed strong fluctuations, reaching a historical high [1] - International gold prices rebounded after a decline to a three-week low [1] - Everbright Futures noted that the meeting between the U.S. and Chinese leaders boosted market sentiment, despite a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - CITIC Securities anticipates supply tightness will drive prices of copper and cobalt higher, while lithium prices may benefit from unexpected demand in energy storage [1] - Despite recent volatility in precious metal prices, the overall bullish outlook remains unchanged [1] - The article suggests that with continued liquidity and increased efforts by countries to secure key resources, the investment interest in commodities is likely to persist [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that supply tightness is expected to drive prices of copper and cobalt commodities upward, while lithium prices may rise due to unexpected demand in energy storage [1] Commodity Price Outlook - Copper and cobalt prices are anticipated to continue rising due to supply constraints [1] - Lithium prices are expected to benefit from higher-than-expected energy storage demand [1] - Precious metals have experienced a pullback, but the overall bullish sentiment remains unchanged [1] - Coal and electrolytic aluminum, which have shown stagnation this year, may receive increased attention in Q4 [1] Other Commodities - Oil and steel/iron ore prices are projected to remain weak [1] - Silicon product prices are expected to see a slight increase [1] - The investment enthusiasm for bulk commodities is likely to persist amid liquidity easing and countries strengthening their efforts to secure key resources [1]

Group 1: Oil Market - The recent rise in oil prices is attributed to technical corrections and supportive inventory data, with U.S. crude oil inventories decreasing by approximately 4.2 million barrels, reaching the lowest level since the end of September [3] - Despite the short-term rebound, the overall trend indicates a potential for a third consecutive month of price decline due to ongoing supply surplus concerns [3] - Additional factors influencing the market include potential trade agreements between the U.S. and India, which may reduce Indian imports of Russian oil, and U.S. Treasury Secretary's comments on increasing sanctions against Russia [3] Group 2: Gold Market - The significant drop in gold prices, marking the worst decline in 12 years, is primarily due to technical selling after a period of being overbought since early September [4] - Analysts suggest that the recent volatility should not deter long-term investors, as there is an expectation for gold to regain momentum in the following year [5] - The focus for long-term investors should be on maintaining key support levels rather than reacting to short-term price fluctuations [5] Group 3: Copper Market - Copper prices increased by 0.37% to $10,663 per ton, influenced by trade policy concerns, particularly regarding potential restrictions on software exports by the U.S. government [5] - The market's reaction to policy changes highlights the importance of understanding the broader supply and demand dynamics rather than making decisions based on short-term price movements [5] - Long-term investment strategies should focus on sustainable supply-demand factors rather than temporary market fluctuations [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities suggests maintaining an optimistic outlook on the stock market amid an economic cycle recovery, while advising caution in investment allocation due to valuation changes [1] Group 1: Stock Market Outlook - The economic cycle is showing signs of recovery, which supports a positive sentiment towards the stock market [1] - Investors are encouraged to be more cautious in their allocation strategies due to changes in valuations [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - There is a focus on the non-bank sector, which is currently undervalued and experiencing rapid growth in investment performance, presenting a rebound opportunity [1] - The report highlights investment opportunities in cyclical sectors, driven by expectations of rising commodity prices in the fourth quarter [1] Group 3: Bond Market Insights - Bonds are considered to have strong allocation potential, but their valuation attractiveness remains insufficient [1] - It is recommended to wait for clearer signals from the central bank regarding a loose monetary policy before entering the bond market [1] Group 4: Commodity Market Expectations - The fourth quarter is expected to see continued strong performance in commodities, particularly in gold and non-ferrous metals, which have strong certainty [1] - For crude oil, attention should be paid to potential changes on the supply side [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming China Cotton & Cotton Yarn Industry Investment Summit, highlighting the importance of the cotton industry in China and the opportunities and challenges it faces in the current economic environment [1][6]. Event Overview - The summit will take place from October 30 to October 31, 2025, at the Hilton Hotel in Urumqi, Xinjiang [1][4]. - The event includes various sessions such as market risk management discussions, keynote speeches on macroeconomic outlooks, and roundtable discussions on the cotton industry [6][7]. Keynote Sessions - Keynote speeches will cover topics such as the global and Chinese macroeconomic outlook, the cotton and textile market situation, and the supply-demand dynamics of cotton [6][8]. - Notable speakers include experts from China International Capital Corporation and the Xiamen International Trade Group [6][8]. Roundtable Discussions - Roundtable discussions will focus on the development opportunities and challenges for the cotton and textile industry in Xinjiang and mainland China, including the impact of policies and global market changes [7][8]. - Topics will also address the restructuring of the global cotton supply chain and the implications of U.S. tariff policies [7]. Innovation and Risk Management - The summit will explore innovations in cotton supply chain services and the challenges posed by large-scale pricing models [9]. - Discussions will also include the impact of digital transformation on the cotton textile industry [9]. Networking Opportunities - The event will provide networking opportunities for industry leaders, including a gala dinner titled "Huafu Fashion Night" to discuss future trends and investment opportunities in the cotton market [10].

Group 1 - The oil market is experiencing a significant surge, with WTI crude oil rising 2.5% to surpass $64 per barrel, driven by geopolitical risks and potential supply disruptions [3] - Copper prices have also seen a notable increase, with London copper rising 3.6% to reach $10,336 per ton, influenced by supply interruptions at Freeport's Grasberg mine in Indonesia [3] - In contrast, gold prices have declined by 1.11% to $3,722 per ounce, primarily due to a strengthening dollar and reduced demand for safe-haven assets following strong U.S. new home sales data [3] Group 2 - The current market dynamics reflect two main themes: geopolitical risks driving up prices of strategic resources like oil, and the long-term demand for green metals like copper supported by the energy transition [3] - For medium to long-term investors, it is suggested to focus on commodities with solid fundamental support, such as copper, which is essential for electric vehicles and grid construction [3] - Investors are advised to consider indirect participation through stocks or funds related to these sectors to mitigate the high risks associated with direct futures trading [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the upcoming "2025 China Cotton and Yarn Industry Investment Summit" in Urumqi, Xinjiang, highlighting the region's strategic importance in the cotton industry and its role in connecting local production to global markets [1]. Group 1: Event Overview - The summit will take place on October 31, 2025, in Urumqi, which is recognized as a national-level trading center for cotton and yarn [1]. - The event aims to discuss investment opportunities in the cotton industry, driven by smart agriculture and the Belt and Road Initiative [1]. Group 2: Agenda Highlights - The agenda includes a series of keynote speeches and roundtable discussions focusing on macroeconomic outlooks, market conditions, and the challenges and opportunities facing the cotton industry [3][4]. - Key topics will cover global and Chinese cotton market trends, risk management, and the impact of U.S. tariff policies on the industry [4][6]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The summit will explore investment opportunities arising from the restructuring of the global cotton supply chain and the implications of macroeconomic policies on commodity investments [6][7]. - Discussions will also address innovations in cotton pricing models and the effects of digital transformation on the cotton textile industry [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For soybeans/meal, the monthly supply - demand report has limited impact. The market rebounds due to previous full reaction to negative factors and macro - impacts. There is support for prices, but the upside is limited. Domestic soybeans have a loose supply, good demand, and large inventory pressure, with prices expected to fluctuate [4][6]. - For sugar, internationally, Brazil is in the supply peak, and the global inventory is accumulating. Although recent Brazilian sugar production increases have a negative impact on prices, considering the low price level and the fact that negatives are mostly priced in, it is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Domestically, with high - level imports, low domestic sugar inventory, and high sales - to - production ratio, Zheng sugar is likely to have a range - bound movement with a short - term rebound [12]. - For the oilseeds and oils sector, the U.S. biodiesel market has digested some inventory, leading to a decline in the oilseeds and oils market. Malaysian palm oil production and inventory increase is expected to slow down. Indonesian inventory is low, and the price is supported. Domestic soybean oil is in the inventory - building stage, and rapeseed oil is gradually reducing inventory, both providing price support [19]. - For corn/corn starch, the U.S. corn futures are falling. Although the U.S. may lower the yield per unit, the overall production is at a new high, with limited short - term rebound space. In the domestic market, the supply is still tight, and the spot price is likely to fall, with the 01 contract expected to have limited downward space [28]. - For live pigs, the overall supply remains stable, but due to the relatively high inventory, there is downward pressure on prices in the future [34]. - For peanuts, some peanuts are gradually coming onto the market, but the supply is limited due to weather. The import volume has decreased significantly, and the prices of related products are stable. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [39]. - For eggs, as the replenishment in each link is coming to an end, the spot price is falling. Based on the current fundamentals, egg prices are expected to face pressure in the short term [45]. - For apples, the early - maturing apple quality is poor, and the price difference between good and bad products is large. The expected low excellent - fruit rate of late - maturing Fuji may lead to a relatively high initial purchase price, but considering the current futures price, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [52]. - For cotton - cotton yarn, new cotton is gradually entering the acquisition stage. The expected increase in Xinjiang cotton production and the general acquisition enthusiasm of ginning mills will bring selling - hedging pressure. The demand improvement in the peak season is limited, so the market is expected to be slightly weak [62]. Summary by Directory Soybeans/Meal - **External Market**: CBOT soybean index rose 0.07% to 1057.75 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 0.38% to $289.6 per short - ton [2]. - **Related Information**: As of September 11, the U.S. 2025/2026 soybean export net sales were 923,000 tons, and 2026/2027 net sales were 2,000 tons. For soybean meal, 2024/2025 net sales were 31,000 tons, and 2025/2026 net sales were 151,000 tons. Conab expects Brazil's 2025/2026 soybean production to increase 3.6% to 177.67 million tons. Oil World expects the global sunflower seed production to be 58.7 million tons. As of September 12, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3604 million tons, with an operating rate of 66.35%. Soybean inventory was 7.332 million tons, and soybean meal inventory was 1.1644 million tons [2][3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait and see; Arbitrage: Exit the MRM05 spread widening; Options: Wait and see [7]. Sugar - **External Market Changes**: The previous trading day, ICE U.S. raw sugar main contract fell 0.1 (- 0.62%) to 16.13 cents per pound, and London white sugar main contract fell 3.7 (- 0.81%) to $455.6 per ton [8]. - **Important Information**: In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar. From January to August, the import volume was 2.6121 million tons. In the 2024/2025 sugar - making season as of August, the import volume was 4.0739 million tons. In the second half of August, Brazil's central - southern region had a cane crushing volume of 50.061 million tons, with a sugar production of 3.872 million tons. As of September 17, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports was 85, and the sugar quantity was 3.2827 million tons. In August 2025, China's refined sugar production was 454,000 tons [9][10][11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: The international sugar price is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term, and Zheng sugar has limited downward space; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [13][14]. Oilseeds and Oils - **External Market**: Overnight, the CBOT U.S. soybean oil main contract changed by - 0.68% to 51.17 cents per pound, and the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract changed by 0.11% to 4439 ringgit per ton [17]. - **Related Information**: As of September 16, about 36% of the U.S. soybean - growing area was affected by drought. Conab expects Brazil's 2025/2026 soybean production to increase 3.6%. The 2025 EU and UK rapeseed production is expected to be 21.6 million tons. In August 2025, China imported 340,000 tons of palm oil, 100,000 tons of soybean oil, and 140,000 tons of rapeseed oil [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consider buying on dips in the short - term volatile market; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [21][22][23]. Corn/Corn Starch - **External Market Changes**: The CBOT corn futures fell, with the December main contract down 0.4% to 424.5 cents per bushel [25]. - **Important Information**: The CBOT corn futures fell on Thursday due to seasonal harvest pressure and a stronger U.S. dollar. As of September 18, the average inventory of feed enterprises was 26.16 days. As of September 17, the corn inventory of 96 major corn - processing enterprises in 12 regions was 2.34 million tons. As of September 12, the corn inventory in the four northern ports was 729,000 tons. On September 19, the purchase price in the northern port was 2240 yuan per ton [26]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait for the U.S. December corn to correct from a high level, and buy on dips for the 01 contract; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [29][30][31]. Live Pigs - **Related Information**: Live pig prices are falling, with different price ranges in different regions. As of September 16, the prices of piglets and sows also decreased. On September 18, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" rose 0.03 points, and the national average pork wholesale price fell 0.9% [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Adopt a bearish view on the near - term contracts; Arbitrage: Do the LH15 reverse spread; Options: Buy long - term call options [35]. Peanuts - **Important Information**: The national average price of peanut kernels is 4.15 yuan per jin. Shandong and Henan oil mills have different purchase prices. The overall oil mill operating rate is low. The sales of peanut oil have slightly improved, and the price of peanut meal is stable. As of September 11, the peanut inventory of domestic peanut oil sample enterprises was 65,560 tons, and the peanut oil inventory was 36,760 tons [36][37][38]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: The 11 and 01 contracts are expected to fluctuate at the bottom, and try to go long on the 05 contract after a correction; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [39][40][41]. Eggs - **Important Information**: The national mainstream egg prices mostly fell, and the egg market continued to fluctuate. In August, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.365 billion. As of September 11, the weekly egg sales in the representative sales areas were 7303 tons. The average inventory in the production and circulation links decreased [43][44]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consider shorting at high levels; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [46][47]. Apples - **Important Information**: As of September 10, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory was 209,100 tons. In July 2025, the apple export volume was 53,600 tons, and the import volume was 17,700 tons. The price of early - maturing apples varies by region, and the profit of apple storage merchants in Qixia has decreased [49][50][51]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Apples are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and there will be selling - hedging pressure after the new apples are on the market; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [55][56][57]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **External Market Impact**: The previous trading day, ICE U.S. cotton fell 0.26 (0.39%) to 66.92 cents per pound [59]. - **Important Information**: As of September 13, the average temperature and rainfall in the U.S. cotton - growing areas decreased. The all - cotton grey fabric market has little change, and the cotton spot trading is cold. The sales and transaction basis of cotton are in a certain range [60][61]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: U.S. cotton is expected to fluctuate, and Zheng cotton is expected to be slightly weak, suggesting selective trading; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [63][64][65].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the upcoming "2025 China Cotton and Yarn Industry Investment Summit" in Urumqi, Xinjiang, highlighting the region's strategic importance in the cotton industry and its role in connecting local production to global markets [1]. Group 1: Event Overview - The summit will take place on October 31, 2025, in Urumqi, which is recognized as a national-level trading center for cotton and yarn [1]. - The event aims to discuss investment opportunities in the cotton industry, driven by smart agriculture and the Belt and Road Initiative [1]. Group 2: Agenda Highlights - The agenda includes a series of keynote speeches and roundtable discussions focusing on macroeconomic outlooks, market conditions, and the development of the cotton and textile industry in Xinjiang and beyond [3][4]. - Key topics will cover global and Chinese cotton supply and demand dynamics, the impact of macroeconomic policies, and innovations in cotton pricing models [6][7]. Group 3: Industry Challenges and Opportunities - The article mentions challenges such as the restructuring of the global cotton supply chain and the effects of U.S. tariff policies on the industry [4]. - It also highlights potential investment opportunities arising from the evolving landscape of the cotton market, including innovations in supply chain services and pricing strategies [6][7].