1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The protein meal market shows a bullish sentiment. The domestic soybean meal market oscillated and closed higher, influenced by the US trade policy and weather. The domestic rapeseed meal market also followed a similar trend. The soybean meal inventory is expected to accumulate faster as the domestic oil mills' operating rate remains high [6]. - The oil market presents a differentiated trend. Internationally, the US soybean oil oscillated weakly, while the Malaysian palm oil oscillated higher. Domestically, rapeseed oil declined significantly, palm oil followed the Malaysian palm oil with a first - rising - then - falling trend, and soybean oil first declined and then rose. The differentiated market may continue [72]. - In the future, for protein meals, weather speculation in the US soybean market may heat up, and the domestic soybean meal inventory may accumulate faster. For oils, the upcoming MPOB report is crucial, and the market will focus on the export situation in June [134]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Protein Meal Market Analysis 3.1.1 Market Review - CBOT soybeans first declined and then rose this week. The US trade policy changes and geopolitical factors caused significant market fluctuations. The domestic soybean meal market also oscillated and closed higher, with the futures price breaking through 3000 on Friday [6]. 3.1.2 US Soybean Export - As of the week ending May 29, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 268,343 tons, in line with expectations. The cumulative export inspection volume this crop year reached 44,608,089 tons, higher than the same period last year [11]. 3.1.3 US Soybean Planting Progress - As of June 1, the US soybean planting was 84% complete, higher than the previous week and the same period last year. The first - rating report showed a 67% good - to - excellent rate [24]. 3.1.4 North American Weather - At the end of the month, storms moved south, and wildfire smoke affected air quality in the north - central US. An early - season heatwave hit the west, and temperature differences were significant across regions [29]. 3.1.5 Domestic and International Oilseed Markets - The estimated 2024/25 Brazilian soybean production was revised up by 1.3 million tons to 169 million tons. Canada's spring rapeseed planting progress accelerated. The global oilseed market is expected to have production and price changes in 2025/26 [36][37]. 3.1.6 Global Trade Pattern Changes - There were frequent changes in the US trade policy, including tariff adjustments and trade talks. The EU - Ukraine trade policy changed, and the US was promoting more agricultural product exports [40][41]. 3.1.7 Soybean Inventory and Profit - The domestic spot and futures soybean crushing margins continued to decline, showing losses. The port soybean inventory decreased, and the theoretical inventory at the end of next week is expected to be 5.04 million tons [48]. 3.1.8 Soybean Meal Inventory and Consumption - The domestic oil mills' operating rate increased to 65.98%, and the soybean meal inventory reached 306,000 tons, a significant increase. The estimated apparent consumption of soybean meal in the 22nd week was 1.8367 million tons [56][59]. 3.1.9 Rapeseed Meal Inventory and Consumption - The domestic rapeseed oil mills' operating rate decreased to 17.61%, and the rapeseed meal inventory decreased to 20,000 tons, while the contract volume increased significantly [65]. 3.2 Oil Market Analysis 3.2.1 Market Review - Internationally, the US soybean oil oscillated weakly, and the Malaysian palm oil oscillated higher. Domestically, rapeseed oil declined significantly, palm oil followed the Malaysian palm oil with a first - rising - then - falling trend, and soybean oil first declined and then rose [72]. 3.2.2 International Oil Information - In March 2025, the US used 832 million pounds of soybean oil for biofuel production, a significant increase from February. Indonesia's palm oil export and production increased in March, and the inventory decreased. The global vegetable oil market may face a shortage [75][76][77]. 3.2.3 Southeast Asian Weather - The southwest monsoon brought heavy rainfall to Thailand and surrounding areas. Malaysia and Indonesia also had widespread showers, benefiting the oil palm areas [83]. 3.2.4 Domestic Oil Inventory - As of the 22nd week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.0706 million tons, an increase of 3.57% week - on - week. The soybean oil inventory increased, the palm oil inventory increased slightly, and the rapeseed oil inventory decreased slightly [93]. 3.2.5 Oil Basis Analysis - The basis of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil showed different trends, and the spreads between different contracts also changed [100][103][106]. 3.2.6 Oil Futures Spread and Arbitrage - The spreads between different oil futures contracts and the arbitrage relationships between oil and meal futures showed certain trends. For example, the oil - to - meal ratio of soybeans and rapeseeds continued to decline [110][113]. 3.3后市展望 3.3.1 Technical Analysis - For soybean meal, the short - term indicators are bullish, while the medium - and long - term indicators are intertwined. For rapeseed meal, all indicators are intertwined. For soybean oil, the short - term indicators are intertwined, and the medium - and long - term indicators are bearish. For palm oil, all indicators are intertwined. For rapeseed oil, the short - term indicators are bearish, and the medium - and long - term indicators are intertwined [133]. 3.3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Protein meal: Internationally, there may be weather speculation in the US soybean market. Domestically, the soybean meal inventory may accumulate faster, and the cost - driven effect of rapeseed meal is prominent. - Oils: The upcoming MPOB report is crucial. If the inventory is in line with expectations, the market will focus on the June export situation. The domestic oil market follows the international market, with policy impacts on soybean oil and rapeseed oil, and the palm oil market awaits further report guidance [134].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Reports - Rapeseed oil contract 2509 may test the lower support platform in the short term [2] - Soybean meal may fluctuate within a range in the short term [3] - Corn futures prices will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to the situation of new wheat listing and weather changes [4] - Copper prices show signs of breaking away from the moving - average system, and attention should be paid to its effectiveness for defense [5] - Carbonate lithium contract 2507 may fluctuate weakly, and short positions can be taken on rallies [6][7] - Steel is starting to repair its valuation, and a short - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended [8] - Coking coal and coke may rebound from oversold levels at low positions due to news disturbances [9] - Iron ore 2509 will mainly fluctuate in the short term, and traders are reminded to be cautious about investment risks [10] - WTI crude oil will mainly fluctuate around $60 - $65 per barrel [11] - Attention should be paid to the downstream operating rate of Shanghai rubber. After the bearish factors are realized, the price will rebound with improved sentiment [12] - PVC futures prices will oscillate at a low level with a still - weak fundamental situation [13] - Soda ash futures prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom - range in the short term [14] Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Rapeseed Oil - **Spot Information**: The price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Dongguan Zhongliang, Dongguan, is 9,270 yuan/ton (converted as OI09 + 120), up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] - **Market Analysis**: Domestic rapeseed is about to be listed. Near - month imported rapeseed supply is abundant, while far - month supply is tight. Downstream demand is neutral, and inventories may remain high in the short and medium term [2] Soybean Meal - **Spot Information**: Spot prices in Zhangjiagang are 2,770 yuan/ton, Tianjin 2,850 yuan/ton, Rizhao 2,790 yuan/ton, and Dongguan 2,780 yuan/ton [3] - **Market Analysis**: Sino - US trade has reached a phased agreement, but long - term contradictions remain. Tariffs and weather drive international soybean prices. In China, soybean supply is recovering, and the supply pressure of soybean meal is emerging. Downstream procurement is weak, and inventories are slowly accumulating [3] Corn - **Spot Information**: The average purchase price of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia is 2,204 yuan/ton; in North China and Huanghuai, it is 2,423 yuan/ton. The purchase prices in Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are 2,270 - 2,300 yuan/ton [4] - **Market Analysis**: Abroad, good weather in US corn - growing areas eases concerns, but Sino - US trade may increase import pressure. Domestically, there is a supply shortage during the grain - transition period. Wheat may replace corn in feed use, and downstream demand is weak [4] Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78,290 - 78,540 yuan, down 700 yuan. The import copper ore index is - 43.56, up 0.72 [5] - **Market Analysis**: US economic data and political factors affect the possible interest - rate cut path. Global trade frictions continue. Domestic policies support the market. Raw material issues persist, and copper inventories are declining [5] Carbonate Lithium - **Spot Information**: The market price of battery - grade carbonate lithium (99.5%) is 60,800 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade (99.2%) is 59,150 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 1,650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [6] - **Market Analysis**: Cost pressure is increasing, ore prices are falling, and inventories are high. Supply capacity utilization is above average, and demand is differentiated. Phosphoric acid iron - lithium batteries and ternary batteries are shrinking [6] Steel - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,090 yuan, the Tangshan start - up rate is 83.56%, social inventory is 532.76 million tons, and steel mill inventory is 200.4 million tons [8] - **Market Analysis**: The steel fundamentals are improving, with a lower valuation. Policy supports the real - estate industry. Raw material prices are weak, and inventory levels are low [8] Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Information**: The price of main coking coal (Meng 5) is 1,205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 337.38 million tons, and coke inventory is 246.10 million tons [9] - **Market Analysis**: Supply is relatively loose, demand is low due to steel mill production cuts, and inventories are slightly increasing. The average profit per ton of coke is approaching the break - even point [9] Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The Platts iron ore index is 97.2, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 735 yuan, and Australian powder ore (62% Fe) is 737 yuan [10] - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors are mixed. Australian shipments are falling, Brazilian shipments are rising, and port inventories are decreasing. Domestic steel mill demand is weak, and overseas demand is differentiated [10] Crude Oil - **Spot Information**: No specific spot price information provided - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and OPEC+ production decisions affect supply. OPEC has lowered global demand growth forecasts, and trade disputes raise concerns about demand [11] Rubber - **Spot Information**: The price of domestic full - latex rubber is 13,500 yuan/ton, Thai smoked three - piece rubber is 20,000 yuan/ton, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber is 14,950 yuan/ton, and 20 - grade rubber is 14,100 yuan/ton [12] - **Market Analysis**: Trade - war tariffs and oversupply drag down rubber prices. After the bearish factors are realized, the price will rebound. Supply is abundant with full - scale tapping in domestic and Southeast Asian regions [12] PVC - **Spot Information**: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4,680 yuan/ton, and ethylene - based PVC is 5,000 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous period [13] - **Market Analysis**: Supply capacity utilization is increasing, demand from downstream enterprises is still weak, and social inventories are decreasing [13] Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,373.75 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [14] - **Market Analysis**: Supply is increasing with a higher start - up rate and production. Inventories are slightly increasing, and demand is average, with downstream resistance to high - priced goods [14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided on industry investment ratings in the given reports. 2. Core Views - **Vegetable Oils and Grains** - Rapeseed oil 2509 contract may oscillate within a platform range in the short - term [1] - Soybean meal may oscillate weakly in the short - term [1] - Corn futures prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short - term, with attention on new wheat listings and weather changes [1] - **Metals** - Copper prices will continue to fluctuate around the moving average system, with overall changes being minor, and the defense line set at the upper edge of the moving average system [2] - The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may oscillate weakly, and short - selling on rallies is advisable [3][4] - Steel is starting to repair its valuation, and a short - term bullish approach on dips is recommended [5] - Coking coal and coke may rebound from oversold lows due to news disturbances [6] - Iron ore 2509 will oscillate in the short - term, and traders are advised to be cautious [7] - **Energy and Chemicals** - WTI crude oil will mainly oscillate around $60 - $65 per barrel [8] - Rubber will be weak overall, with attention on downstream rubber processing plant operating rates [9] - PVC futures prices will oscillate at low levels due to weak fundamentals [10] - Soda ash futures will continue to oscillate within the bottom - range in the short - term [11] 3. Summary by Commodity Vegetable Oils and Grains - **Rapeseed Oil** - **Spot Price**: The price of imported Grade 3 rapeseed oil in Qinzhou is 9300 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - **Market Analysis**: After the Dragon Boat Festival, domestic rapeseed will be listed soon. Near - term imported rapeseed supply is abundant, while long - term supply is tight. Downstream demand is neutral, and short - to - medium - term inventory may remain high [1] - **Soybean Meal** - **Spot Price**: Spot prices in various regions have declined, such as 2770 yuan/ton in Zhangjiagang (-30) [1] - **Market Analysis**: Sino - US trade has reached a phased agreement, but long - term contradictions remain. US soybean sowing is going smoothly, and Brazil is in the peak export season. Domestic soybean supply is recovering, and the pressure on soybean meal supply is emerging. Demand is weak, and inventory accumulation is slow [1] - **Corn** - **Spot Price**: Different regions have different prices, such as 2204 yuan/ton in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia [1] - **Market Analysis**: US corn growing conditions are good, and there are concerns about long - term imports. Domestically, there is a supply shortage during the transition period between old and new grains. Wheat may replace corn in the feed sector, and weather will affect prices. Downstream demand is weak [1] Metals - **Copper** - **Spot Price**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78350 - 78620 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [2] - **Market Analysis**: US employment data and political factors affect the possible end of the interest - rate cut cycle. Domestic policies support the market. Raw material supply issues persist, and copper inventory is declining, making the market more complex [2] - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Spot Price**: Battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 60800 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade (99.2%) is 59150 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3] - **Market Analysis**: Cost pressure is increasing, ore prices are falling, and inventory is high. Supply is still above average, and demand is divided. Overall, prices are falling, and attention should be paid to upstream production cuts [3] - **Steel** - **Spot Price**: Shanghai rebar is 3090 yuan, with a Tangshan开工率 of 83.56%, social inventory of 532.76 million tons, and steel mill inventory of 200.4 million tons [5] - **Market Analysis**: The steel fundamentals are improving, with a neutral - low valuation. Policy supports the real estate industry. Demand is down year - on - year, raw material prices are weak, and inventory is low. The market is driven by policy expectations and fundamentals [5] - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Spot Price**: The price of Mongolian 5 coking coal is 1205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Rizhao Port is 1340 yuan/ton [6] - **Market Analysis**: Supply is abundant, demand is weak due to steel mill production cuts, inventory is slowly increasing, and profit is approaching the break - even point [6] - **Iron Ore** - **Spot Price**: The Platts iron ore index is 97.2, and the price of Qingdao PB (61.5) powder is 735 yuan [7] - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors are mixed. Australian shipments are down, Brazilian shipments are up, and port inventory is decreasing. Domestic steel mill demand is weak, and overseas demand is divided [7] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil** - **Market Analysis**: Tensions in the Middle East and OPEC+ production decisions have led to supply concerns. OPEC has lowered future demand growth forecasts, and there are concerns about global demand [8] - **Rubber** - **Spot Price**: Different types of rubber have different prices, such as 13350 yuan/ton for domestic whole - latex [9] - **Market Analysis**: Overseas orders and domestic demand should be monitored. The trade war and oversupply are dragging down prices. Supply is abundant as domestic and Southeast Asian rubber trees are in the tapping season [9] - **PVC** - **Spot Price**: The mainstream price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4680 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [10] - **Market Analysis**: Production capacity utilization has increased, demand is still mainly for rigid needs, and inventory has decreased. The fundamentals are still weak, and futures prices are oscillating at low levels [10] - **Soda Ash** - **Spot Price**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1371.88 yuan/ton, down 6.25 yuan/ton [11] - **Market Analysis**: Production has increased due to new capacity. Inventory has decreased, and demand is average. The market lacks new drivers and may oscillate at the bottom in the short - term [11]

1、现货市场：张家港益江一级豆油 8200 元/吨，较上一交易日跌 70 元/吨。 2、国际大豆：当前时间窗口下，正处美豆播种、省长与南美豆收割、出口季，目前巴西豆 收割基本完成。总体来看，南美新作丰产格局或将大概率成为事实。美国农业部 5 月 US DA 报告显示，2025/26 年度大豆单产预估为 52.5 蒲式耳/英亩，2024/25 年度预估为 50.7 蒲式 耳/英亩。 3、国内产业层面：综合供需端，豆油中期去库周期或逐渐进入尾声阶段，关注后市南美进 口大豆到港、海关检验放行后，豆油库存或低位反弹。 4、参考观点：豆油 2509 合约，短线或震荡整理。 （2）国际大豆：关税政策和天气为价格主要驱动因素。 （3）国内豆粕供需面：大豆供给逐渐恢复，油厂开机率提升，豆粕供给预期由紧转为宽松。 豆粕价格走高提振市场成交，下游饲料需求被低估，油厂压车问题仍存，豆粕提货良好。 油厂大豆库存回升至高位，豆粕库存累库速度短期较缓。 参考观点：豆粕短线或震荡偏强。 现货信息：东北三省及内蒙重点深加工企业新玉米主流收购均价 2195 元/吨；华北黄淮重 点企业新玉米主流收购均价 2414 元/吨；锦州港（15%水/容重 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the volatile nature of U.S. wheat futures, which have experienced significant price fluctuations, while corn and soybean futures have also seen declines due to multiple factors including the dollar, weather conditions, and supply-demand dynamics [1] Group 2 - U.S. wheat futures have shown a rollercoaster trend, indicating high volatility in the market [1] - The decline in corn and soybean futures suggests a broader impact on agricultural commodities, influenced by external economic factors [1] - The interplay of the dollar's strength, weather patterns, and supply-demand conditions will be critical in determining future price movements in these markets [1]

红枣属于季产年销品种，需求跟随价格变动弹性较大。2024/2025年度红枣大幅丰产，供应充足，为红 枣价格的持续下行奠定基础。 新季红枣上市初始，枣农挺价惜售，但受限于下游承接力较弱，销量及利润不佳，买卖双方互相博弈。 叠加红枣下树时间较晚，销售期缩短使得枣农挺价心态被削弱，开秤价高开低走，期货价格也随之不断 下行。 直到春节旺季，红枣消费增加，使得价格出现反弹。然而，今年的旺季较去年缩短20天，因此对价格的 提振幅度有限。春节后红枣消费逐步进入淡季，且随着天气转暖，红枣进入冷库的时间逼近，一般货价 格开始松动，期货价格继续震荡寻底。4月，中美贸易摩擦升级，但我国红枣出口极少，价格走势主要 取决于自身供需面，因此受宏观扰动影响小。当前，红枣市场供应压力持续加大，销区消费较弱，且随 着温度升高，时令鲜果供应不断增加，进一步抑制红枣需求。供强需弱下，期货价格继续探底。 从供给端来看，2024/2025年度新疆灰枣产量达70万吨，与去年相比增加37万吨。观察历年数据可知， 当灰枣产量处于60万～65万吨时已属于丰产季，而2024/2025年度高达70万吨的产量无疑进一步加剧市 场的供应压力。 此外，天气因素对新季红 ...

【国富期货早间看点】欧盟24/25年棕榈油累计进口243万吨 巴西 24/25大豆产量料为1.721亿吨 20250507 2025/5/7 09:39 【国富期货早间看点】欧盟24/25 243 24/25 1.721 20250507 2025年05月07日 07:44 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日流跌幅(%) | 隔夜流跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油07(BMD) | 3749.00 | -0.91 | -1. 13 | | 布伦特07(ICE) | 62. 04 | 2.97 | -0. 48 | | 美原油06(NYMEX) | 59.00 | 3.09 | -0. 54 | | 美豆07(CBOT) | 1040. 50 | -0. 53 | -0. 10 | | 美豆箱07(CBOT) | 292. 90 | -0. 91 | -0. 78 | | 美豆油07(CBOT) | 48. 30 | -0.90 | -0. 25 | | | 最新价 | 流跌幅(%) | 十日 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 全球贸易环境拖累棉价，短期保持观望 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-04-29 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：在 2024/25 年度，除了云南以外，其他主要产区的糖厂已经开始收 榨，食糖的恢复性增产已成定局。五一等节假日的消费拉动了食糖需求，支 撑了糖价的稳定。国际方面，巴西在 2025/26 年度的制糖生产逐步展开，但 由于天气因素，其产糖量存在不确定性，预计短期内国际糖价将震荡走弱。 后续需关注国内甘蔗和甜菜的种植及生长情况，以及巴西的食糖生产进度。 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：由于美国对我国出口商品加征关税，中国的纺织品和服装出口出现 放缓，消费量减少了 20 万吨，降至 760 万吨，进口量也减少了 20 万吨， 降至 150 万吨。近期，新疆大部分地区气温偏高，这对棉花的播种总体上是 有利的。 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURE ...