Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the mixed performance of domestic futures contracts on December 12, 2025, with notable increases in certain metals and significant declines in others [5][6][8] - The main futures contract for tin (沪锡) rose over 4%, while silver (沪银) increased by more than 3%, and polysilicon, zinc, and international copper all saw gains exceeding 2% [5][6] - Conversely, liquefied gas and coking coal experienced declines of over 4%, with red dates and coking coal down more than 3%, and glass, eggs, and PVC dropping over 2% [5][6] Group 2 - In late November 2025, the main tin contract price surged to 323,700 yuan/ton, a three-and-a-half-year high, driven by supply concerns from geopolitical conflicts in the Democratic Republic of Congo and expectations of macroeconomic easing [5][8] - Following the signing of a peace agreement between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda on December 4, 2025, market fears regarding disruptions in African tin supply were alleviated [5][8] - Looking ahead to 2026, the tin market is expected to experience marginal supply easing and seasonal demand pressure, with global inventories remaining low and macroeconomic conditions supportive, leading to a forecasted trading range for the main tin contract of 280,000 to 330,000 yuan/ton in Q1 2026 [5][8]

2025年11月底，受刚果（金）地缘冲突引发的供应担忧与宏观宽松预期共振影响，沪锡主力合约价格一 度冲高至32.37万元/吨，创三年半以来新高。随着12月4日刚果（金）与卢旺达正式签署和平协议，此 前市场对非洲锡矿供应中断的担忧得到阶段性缓解。展望2026年，锡市预计呈现供应边际宽松、需求淡 季承压格局，叠加全球库存偏低与宏观环境支撑，沪锡主力合约或维持高位震荡态势。 2026年一季度，国内精炼锡冶炼端预计保持平稳运行，原料约束较2025年进一步边际缓解。受益于缅甸 锡矿进口增量补充，云南、广西等主产区冶炼厂原料库存压力减轻，开工节奏稳定，预计一季度锡锭供 应同比小幅增长。虽然春节假期可能带来部分冶炼厂阶段性检修，但对整体产量影响有限。加工费方 面，尽管原料约束有所缓解，但矿端供应改善尚未完全兑现，预计40%品位锡精矿加工费将继续维持在 11000元/吨的低位。 光伏领域需求延续承压态势，前期抢装需求透支后，2026年一季度组件排产环比下降，焊带耗锡需求乏 力。新兴需求方面，AI服务器虽保持50%以上的高增速，但由于其在整体消费中占比较低，短期内难以 对冲传统消费领域的疲软。整体来看，需求端对锡价的支撑作用显 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Fed's rate cut and potential bond - buying, along with China's central economic work conference's loose monetary signals, create a warm sentiment in the market despite geopolitical disturbances. For copper, short - term price may rise but consumption may limit the upward trend. For aluminum, with inventory reduction and supply issues, the price is likely to rebound. For lead, low domestic inventory of deliverable products makes the price strong. For zinc, short - term supply reduction and positive market atmosphere may lead to a stronger price. For tin, supply disruptions may drive the price up after macro - risk release. For nickel, short - term price may turn to a volatile state. For lithium carbonate, due to supply - demand uncertainties, it's advisable to wait and see. For alumina, near - cost prices may lead to production cuts, and it's better to observe. For stainless steel, high inventory is a problem, and supply control may bring a turnaround. For cast aluminum alloy, the price may fluctuate within a range [4][5][6][7][10][12][14][16][20][23][26][29] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: After the Fed's rate cut, the US dollar index is weak, and China's central economic work conference raises loose expectations. LME copper 3M rose 2.37% to $11,833/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 94,080 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 875 tons to 165,850 tons. Domestic social and bonded - area inventories increased, and the spot premium in Shanghai decreased. The import loss was about 1,100 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread narrowed [4] - **Strategy**: Short - term price may still rise, but the weakening consumption may make the upward movement less smooth. The reference range for SHFE copper is 92,500 - 94,600 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $11,600 - 11,950/ton [5] Aluminum - **Market Information**: The central economic work conference's policy signals made non - ferrous metals stronger. LME aluminum rose 1.14% to $2,895/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 22,175 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum's weighted contract positions slightly decreased, and the futures warehouse receipts increased. Domestic aluminum ingot and billet inventories decreased, and the market transaction was average. The LME aluminum inventory decreased, and the cash/3M remained at a discount [6] - **Strategy**: With the domestic inventory decline, high US spot premium, and low LME inventory, along with supply disruptions and stable downstream production, the aluminum price is likely to rebound. The reference range for SHFE aluminum is 22,000 - 22,400 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2,850 - 2,920/ton [7] Lead - **Market Information**: On Thursday, SHFE lead index rose 0.21% to 17,157 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $1,989/ton. The refined - scrap spread was 25 yuan/ton. The domestic social inventory increased slightly by 0.13 tons to 2.29 tons [9] - **Strategy**: The lead ore port inventory decreased, and factory inventory increased. Both primary and secondary lead production rates are high, and downstream battery production also increased. With low domestic deliverable inventory, the lead price shows a strong trend in the short - term [10] Zinc - **Market Information**: On Thursday, SHFE zinc index fell 0.39% to 23,004 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell to $3,087.5/ton. The zinc social inventory decreased by 0.78 tons to 12.82 tons. The LME zinc inventory slowly increased, and the 3 - 15 spread was still high [11] - **Strategy**: Zinc ore and zinc ingot supply have decreased. With the positive market atmosphere in the non - ferrous sector, the zinc price may follow copper and aluminum to rise in the short - term after breaking through the pressure level [12] Tin - **Market Information**: On December 11, 2025, SHFE tin fell 0.63% to 320,600 yuan/ton. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 127 tons. Although the supply shortage has slightly eased, conflicts in Congo (DRC) and Nigeria still cause concerns. The traditional demand is weak, but emerging sectors provide support. The high price makes the spot trading cold [13] - **Strategy**: In the short - term, supply disruptions are the key factors for the price. After the macro - risk is released, the tin price may strengthen. It's advisable to wait and see, and the reference range for domestic contracts is 300,000 - 330,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $39,000 - 42,000/ton [14] Nickel - **Market Information**: On Thursday, SHFE nickel fell 0.65% to 115,400 yuan/ton. The spot premiums of different brands were stable, and the nickel ore price was also stable. The nickel iron price rebounded [15] - **Strategy**: Although there is still a large surplus pressure, the short - term price may turn to a volatile state with the stable nickel iron price and warm macro - atmosphere. It's advisable to wait and see, and the reference range for SHFE nickel is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $13,500 - 15,500/ton [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index rose 2.61%, and the LC2605 contract rose 3.02% [19] - **Strategy**: The supply - demand situation has not changed, and the inventory decline has narrowed slightly. There are uncertainties in supply release and demand. With high positions, the price may fluctuate greatly. It's advisable to wait and see, and the reference range for the LC2605 contract is 95,800 - 103,000 yuan/ton [20] Alumina - **Market Information**: On December 11, 2025, the alumina index fell 0.28% to 2,534 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price decreased, and the overseas price also dropped. The futures inventory increased [22] - **Strategy**: After the rainy season, the ore shipment is recovering, and the ore price may decline. The alumina production capacity is still in surplus, but with the price close to the cost line, production cuts may increase. It's advisable to wait and see, and the reference range for the domestic contract AO2601 is 2,400 - 2,700 yuan/ton [23] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the stainless - steel contract fell 0.44% to 12,500 yuan/ton. The spot prices in some regions changed slightly, and the raw material prices were mostly stable. The social inventory decreased [25] - **Strategy**: High inventory is still a problem. If the supply is effectively controlled and downstream restocking demand is released, the market may turn around [26] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The main AD2602 contract rose 0.17% to 20,945 yuan/ton. The weighted contract positions increased, and the inventory decreased [28] - **Strategy**: The cost is firm, and supply disruptions support the price, but the fluctuating demand and delivery pressure limit the upward movement. The price may fluctuate within a range [29]

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a mixed outlook for the metals industry, with price fluctuations influenced by macroeconomic factors, supply disruptions, and changing monetary policies, particularly regarding interest rates [2][4][6]. Group 1: Lithium Prices - In the first three quarters of 2025, the average price of domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5% purity) and lithium hydroxide (56.5% purity) was 71,339.89 CNY/ton and 67,844.81 CNY/ton, respectively, representing year-on-year declines of 25.17% and 21.47% compared to the same period in 2024 [1][5]. - The price decline for lithium products has slowed in the first half of 2025, with a rebound observed in the third quarter, suggesting a potential turning point [5]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Precious metal prices have been supported by expectations of interest rate cuts, with gold prices experiencing a significant upward trend in the third quarter of 2025 [3][6]. - The overall labor market remains balanced despite a decline in non-farm employment, indicating potential economic weakness and rising inflation concerns, which further support precious metal prices [3]. Group 3: Industrial Metals - The third quarter of 2025 saw increased expectations for interest rate cuts, which provided support for industrial metal prices, particularly copper, amid supply disruptions from incidents like the Grasberg copper mine accident in Indonesia [4][6]. - The average price of LME copper in the first three quarters was 9,561.07 USD/ton, up 4.71% from 9,131.16 USD/ton in the same period of 2024, while LME aluminum prices rose by 8.44% [4]. Group 4: Energy Metals - The energy metals sector appears to have reached a bottom, with signs of a potential rebound following price declines in the first half of 2025 [5]. - The average price of cobalt in the first three quarters was 226,241.76 CNY/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.78%, driven by a significant rebound in September [5]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that despite uncertainties regarding interest rate cuts in December, the medium-term outlook for macroeconomic easing is strong, which will support non-ferrous metal prices [6]. - Companies to watch include Zijin Mining, Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, Luoyang Molybdenum, Western Mining, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, Hailiang Co., Cangge Mining, Ganfeng Lithium, and Huayou Cobalt [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel demand has officially entered the off - season, with high inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils. In the short term, prices are likely to continue weak and volatile, but there may be a marginal inflection point in demand with policy implementation and macro - environment improvement [3]. - For iron ore, high inventory suppresses prices, but short - term iron ore demand is supported by the rebound in hot metal production. The price will run within a volatile range in the short term [6]. - For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for positions to rebound rather than short. The future price increase depends on the introduction and intensity of stimulus policies [10][11]. - Industrial silicon may present a "supply - demand double - weak" pattern. Its price may rise further with开工 rate decline and sentiment boost, otherwise, it may fall [16]. - Polysilicon is still in a tug - of - war between reality and expectation. The supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but short - term de - stocking is limited, and the price will fluctuate widely within a range [18]. - Glass supply contraction is limited, demand is weak, and the market is expected to remain weak in the short term [21]. - Soda ash supply is relatively high, demand is average, and the price will continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Quotes** - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3070 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (- 0.64%) from the previous trading day, with registered warehouse receipts of 95087 tons, a net increase of 8415 tons. The main contract's open interest was 1.631133 million lots, a decrease of 24336 lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai rebar summary prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton [2]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3277 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (- 0.27%) from the previous trading day, with registered warehouse receipts of 120567 tons, unchanged. The main contract's open interest was 1.196921 million lots, a decrease of 20253 lots. The Le Cong and Shanghai hot - rolled coil summary prices remained unchanged [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - Rebar shows a pattern of double - decline in supply and demand, with continuous inventory reduction, presenting a neutral overall performance. Hot - rolled coils have weak terminal demand, and inventory is accumulating against the season. In the short term, prices are likely to be weak and volatile, but there may be a demand inflection point later [3]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes** - The main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 791.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.06% (- 0.50), and the open interest increased by 9616 lots to 480,900 lots. The weighted open interest was 917,200 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 793 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 51.85 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 6.15% [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - Supply: Overseas iron ore shipments have rebounded significantly, with increases in both Australian and Brazilian shipments. Demand: The daily average hot metal production has rebounded, but the steel mill profitability rate is declining. Inventory: Port inventory is accumulating, and steel mill inventory has increased slightly. High inventory suppresses prices, but short - term demand is supported by the rebound in hot metal production, and the price will run within a volatile range [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes** - On November 19, the main manganese silicon contract (SM601) fell 0.67% to close at 5642 yuan/ton. The Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot market price was 5650 yuan/ton, with a premium of 198 yuan/ton over the futures. The main ferrosilicon contract (SF603) fell 0.33% to close at 5504 yuan/ton. The Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon spot market price was 5500 yuan/ton, with a discount of 4 yuan/ton to the futures [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - The black sector has been oscillating downward. As the time approaches December, the macro - expectation is positive. It is more cost - effective to look for positions to rebound. Manganese silicon's fundamentals are not ideal, and attention should be paid to the manganese ore end. Ferrosilicon has no obvious supply - demand contradictions, with low operational cost - effectiveness [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Quotes** - The main industrial silicon futures contract (SI2601) closed at 9390 yuan/ton, up 4.57% (+ 410). The weighted contract open interest increased by 70215 lots to 470943 lots. The spot prices of East China's non - oxygen - blowing 553 and 421 remained unchanged, with basis of - 40 yuan/ton and - 440 yuan/ton respectively [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - Affected by the new energy sector, the price rose rapidly. It may present a "supply - demand double - weak" pattern. The cost provides support. The price may rise further if the开工 rate declines, otherwise, it may fall [14][16]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Quotes** - The main polysilicon futures contract (PS2601) closed at 54625 yuan/ton, up 4.63% (+ 2415). The weighted contract open interest decreased by 2906 lots to 233574 lots. The spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged, with a basis of - 2325 yuan/ton [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - It is in a tug - of - war between reality and expectation. The supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but short - term de - stocking is limited. The price will fluctuate widely within a range, and attention should be paid to the progress of the platform company and price feedback [18]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Quotes** - The glass main contract closed at 1009 yuan/ton on Wednesday, down 0.79% (- 8). The North China and Central China quotes remained unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 111,000 boxes (+ 0.18%). The top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 2020 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 11275 lots [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - Supply contraction is limited, demand is weak, inventory is high, and the market is expected to remain weak in the short term [21]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Quotes** - The soda ash main contract closed at 1182 yuan/ton on Wednesday, down 2.64% (- 32). The Shahe heavy - soda quote decreased by 27. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 0.69 million tons (- 0.18%), with heavy - soda inventory increasing by 0.75 million tons and light - soda inventory decreasing by 1.44 million tons. The top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 42148 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 67894 lots [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - Supply is relatively high, demand is average, and the price will continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term [23].

Core Viewpoint - The current trend in the gold market indicates a bullish outlook, with prices showing strong upward momentum and breaking through significant resistance levels [1][3]. Price Movement - As of September 2, the price of London gold reached $3,492.67 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.50% and a peak of $3,508.49 per ounce [1]. - Over the past five trading days, gold has accumulated a rise of over 3%, with a recent high of $3,508.46 per ounce, reflecting a gain of approximately 0.93% [3]. - After breaching the $3,500 mark, gold experienced a quick pullback of nearly $20, currently trading around $3,492.84 per ounce [3]. Market Analysis - Analysts suggest that the demand for gold reserves is increasing in importance compared to U.S. Treasury securities, reinforcing gold's status as a reliable safe-haven asset [3]. - The current macroeconomic environment characterized by monetary easing and heightened risk aversion is driving gold prices higher [3]. - The weak U.S. dollar and global uncertainties are contributing factors that may allow gold to continue challenging historical highs [3]. Technical Analysis - The weekly chart shows a gradual recovery in technical patterns, with short-term moving averages beginning to trend upwards, indicating potential for further price increases [5]. - The daily chart indicates that gold prices are maintaining a strong upward trend without signs of peaking, with a focus on the resistance level around $3,520 [5]. - The hourly chart shows a minor consolidation followed by a second upward movement, suggesting that traders should watch for potential pullbacks before further gains [5]. Trading Strategy - The current trading strategy suggests entering long positions at the current price of $3,495, with a protective stop-loss set at $3,488, and to adjust stop-loss levels as prices rise above $3,500 [5].

Group 1 - Gold prices continued to rise, reaching a high of $3486, the highest since April, driven by expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with an 87% probability according to CME tools [1][2] - The gold market is influenced by declining U.S. Treasury yields, geopolitical tensions, and rate cut expectations, with inflation remaining sticky as the July PCE index year-on-year was at 2.6% and core PCE slightly increased to 2.9% [2] - Geopolitical risks, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East, are enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2] Group 2 - The current upward trend in gold prices is supported by macroeconomic easing expectations and risk aversion, with a weak dollar and global uncertainties contributing to the conditions for gold to challenge historical highs [2] - Technical analysis indicates that gold has broken through the $3440 resistance level, opening new upward potential, although short-term adjustments may occur around the psychological barrier of $3500 [2][4] - The weekly and daily charts show a positive trend for gold, with short-term support levels at $3463 and $3457, while the focus remains on potential upward movements towards historical highs [4]