Revenue and Expenditure Trends - From January to August 2025, the combined revenue growth rate of the first and second accounts was 0%, maintaining stability compared to the previous value of 0%[2] - The combined expenditure growth rate was 8.9%, slightly down from 9.3% in the previous period, indicating a small decline in expenditure growth[2] - The revenue growth was primarily supported by a significant increase in stamp duty, which contributed 0.8 percentage points to the overall tax revenue growth[5] Tax Revenue Insights - Stamp duty (including securities transaction stamp duty) saw a year-on-year growth of 27.4%, up from 20.7% previously, with securities transaction stamp duty increasing by 81.7% compared to 62.5% earlier[5] - The number of new A-share accounts opened in August reached 2.6503 million, representing a 165% increase year-on-year and a nearly 35% increase month-on-month[15] - Non-tax revenue growth declined to 1.5%, significantly lower than the five-year average growth rate of 10.4%[10] Government Debt and Expenditure - The issuance of government bonds slowed down, with a total of 10.46 trillion yuan issued from January to August, which is 1.9 percentage points lower than the same period last year[20] - The expenditure growth rate for the first account was 3.1%, down from 3.4%, while the monthly year-on-year growth rate was 0.8%, a decrease from 3%[20] - Infrastructure spending saw a decline, with a growth rate of -5% for the four major infrastructure categories, while social security and education expenditures maintained stable growth rates of 10% and 5.6%, respectively[20] Land Revenue and Market Conditions - Government fund revenue from land sales continued to show seasonal lows, with a cumulative growth rate of -1.4% from January to August, worsening from -0.7% previously[17] - In August, land transfer revenue was 231.3 billion yuan, down from 267.9 billion yuan, with a cumulative growth rate of -4.7%[17] - The land market's performance is expected to depend heavily on the recovery of the real estate market, which currently shows weak demand indicators[17]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the mixed performance of social financing and credit growth in August, indicating a need for policy adjustments to stimulate economic activity and improve credit demand, particularly in the household sector [1][6][15]. Summary by Sections Social Financing - In August, social financing increased by 2.57 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 463 billion yuan, aligning closely with market expectations of 2.53 trillion yuan [1][6]. - The stock growth rate of social financing was 8.8%, down by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [1][6]. Credit Performance - The increase in real credit was 623.3 billion yuan, showing significant improvement from July but still below historical averages for the same period [7][9]. - The year-on-year decrease in real credit was 417.8 billion yuan, indicating ongoing challenges in credit demand [7][9]. Corporate Credit - Corporate short-term loans increased by 70 billion yuan, the highest for the same period since 2017, driven by factors such as inventory replenishment and banks' preference for short-term loans under stable interest margins [9][10]. - Corporate medium and long-term loans rose by 470 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 20 billion yuan, suggesting a recovery in financing demand for major projects [9][10]. Government and Corporate Bonds - Government bond financing increased by 1.37 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 251.9 billion yuan, primarily due to a high base from the previous year [3][10]. - Corporate bond financing rose by 134.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 36 billion yuan, reflecting increased costs and difficulties in issuing bonds [3][10]. Foreign Currency Loans - Foreign currency loans decreased by 9 billion yuan, but showed a year-on-year increase of 52.2 billion yuan, continuing a trend of improvement since April [3][12]. - The increase in non-discounted bank acceptance bills was 197.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 132.3 billion yuan, indicating a shift in financing patterns [3][12]. Monetary Aggregates - M1 growth rate was 6%, up by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, driven by a low base effect and increased corporate foreign exchange settlements [4][12]. - M2 growth rate remained stable at 8.8%, supported by increased fiscal spending, while household deposits showed a significant decrease [4][12]. Overall Economic Outlook - The financial data for August indicates signs of fiscal strength and a recovery in corporate financing demand, but low leverage willingness in the household sector remains a concern [15][6]. - Upcoming policies, such as consumer loan interest subsidies and adjustments in real estate regulations, may influence household leverage willingness, with September and October data being critical for observation [15][6].

Group 1 - The article highlights the acceleration of local government special bonds and special treasury bonds issuance, indicating that broad fiscal spending is likely to maintain a certain level of intensity [1][8] - The Ministry of Finance reports that in the first seven months of this year, broad fiscal revenue totaled approximately 15.9 trillion yuan, remaining stable compared to the same period last year, while broad fiscal expenditure reached about 21.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 9.3% [2][3] - The fiscal expenditure significantly exceeded revenue by about 5.6 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of approximately 47%, indicating a more proactive fiscal policy [2][3] Group 2 - Tax revenue, often seen as an economic barometer, showed a decline of 3.5% in the first quarter but improved in the following months, resulting in a decrease of only 0.3% in the first seven months [3][5] - The land transfer income for local governments decreased by 4.6% year-on-year, amounting to approximately 1.7 trillion yuan in the first seven months, but the decline is narrowing [5][6] - The net financing of government bonds reached 8.9 trillion yuan in the first seven months, an increase of 4.88 trillion yuan year-on-year, supporting broad fiscal expenditure [7] Group 3 - The central and local governments are accelerating bond issuance to maintain spending expansion, focusing on major projects and risk prevention [6][9] - The recent policies aimed at enhancing social welfare, such as pension increases and childcare subsidies, indicate a shift towards investing more in human capital [7][9] - The central political bureau meeting emphasized the need for sustained macroeconomic policy efforts, including the implementation of more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [7][9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that from January to June this year, fiscal expenditure from both central and local governments increased by 8.9% year-on-year, a significant improvement compared to the -2.8% in the same period last year, positively impacting economic stability [1][9][32] - The new type of policy financial tools, with an initial scale of 500 billion yuan, aims to provide capital support for key investment projects in various sectors, including digital economy, artificial intelligence, and green transformation [2][18][19] - The new policy financial tools are expected to have a significant impact on supporting "quasi-fiscal" expansion if implemented quickly in the third quarter, potentially leading to a broad credit expansion of approximately 4.4 trillion yuan [4][27][28] Group 2 - The quasi-fiscal system in China includes central and local governments, local platforms, and policy banks, which can all contribute to fiscal expansion through various financing methods [10][11] - The new policy financial tools differ from the previous PSL (Pledged Supplementary Lending) in that they may have a faster disbursement rate and lower financing costs, but their credit expansion effect may not be as strong as PSL [3][22][23] - The effectiveness of the new policy financial tools can be evaluated by tracking changes in social financing growth, credit expansion, and infrastructure investment indicators [30][31]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core View of the Report - In June 2025, the fiscal data continued to show a warming trend. The revenue side had highlights such as personal income tax, and land sales revenue also marginally stabilized. The expenditure side continued to reflect the characteristics of fiscal efforts. Based on the current progress, the annual general budget revenue and expenditure targets are expected to be achieved, and there may be a small gap in government - managed funds, but policy - based financial tools and local debt limit space in the second half of the year may provide some flexibility. Overall, the fiscal situation is better than last year [11]. - The broad - based fiscal deficit of the two accounts combined in the first half of the year reached 5.3 trillion, significantly higher than the same period in 2023 and 2024, and comparable to 2022. It is expected to remain active in the second half of the year. Key areas to focus on in the future include major infrastructure projects and "urban renewal" policies [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. General Budget Revenue - **Revenue Growth and Composition**: In June 2025, the national general budget revenue decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, with non - tax revenue being a significant drag. Tax revenue increased by 1.0% year - on - year, while non - tax revenue decreased by 3.7% year - on - year and has been on a continuous downward trend this year. The decline in non - tax revenue is expected to continue, and tax revenue may be the focus of the revenue side this year [1]. - **Revenue Target Progress**: In the first half of the year, the cumulative year - on - year growth of general budget revenue was - 0.3%, 0.4 percentage points short of the annual target (0.1%), and it completed about 53% of the annual budget, slightly faster than the same period last year and basically in line with the average of the past five years [2]. - **Central and Local Revenue**: In June, central fiscal revenue decreased by 1.8% year - on - year, while local fiscal revenue increased by 0.6% year - on - year [2]. 2. Tax Structure - **Main Tax Items**: - **Value - Added Tax and Personal Income Tax**: In June, the year - on - year growth rates of value - added tax and personal income tax were 6.8% and 5.0% respectively, showing a slight decline from the previous values. However, from the perspective of cumulative year - on - year growth and absolute scale in the first half of the year, they were at relatively high levels in recent years. The sustainability of the year - on - year increase in personal income tax remains to be observed [3]. - **Consumption Tax and Corporate Income Tax**: In June, corporate income tax increased by 2.7% year - on - year (previous value: 0.0%), and vehicle purchase tax increased by 6.0% year - on - year. The acceleration of consumption tax (2.0%) deviated from the year - on - year decline in social retail sales, which may reflect differences in the tax collection rhythm within the year [3]. - **Real Estate - Related Taxes**: In June, the year - on - year decline of transaction - related taxes (deed tax, land value - added tax) narrowed slightly, and the year - on - year growth rates of holding - related taxes such as property tax and arable land occupation tax were 20.7% and 9.6% respectively, which may be related to the rebound in the new construction and construction area of real estate, but the investment side is still at the bottom - grinding stage [4]. - **Stamp Duty and Securities Transaction Stamp Duty**: In June, stamp duty and securities transaction stamp duty increased by 30.7% and 67.1% year - on - year respectively, mainly due to the increase in stock market trading volume and activity [5]. 3. General Budget Expenditure - **Expenditure Growth**: In June, general public budget expenditure increased by 0.4% year - on - year, down from the previous value of 2.6%. The cumulative year - on - year growth in the first half of the year was 3.4%, falling below the annual target of 4.4% [6]. - **Expenditure by Category**: - **Livelihood - Related Expenditure**: In June, social security and employment and health expenditures increased by 8.2% and 5.6% year - on - year respectively, showing resilience, while education expenditure growth slowed to 2.4% (previous value: 3.5%) [6]. - **Infrastructure - Related Expenditure**: In June, expenditures on agriculture, forestry and water, transportation, and urban and rural communities decreased by 10.0%, 12.7%, and 8.1% year - on - year respectively. The year - on - year growth rate of narrow - based infrastructure investment in June was 2.0% (- 3.1 pct), showing a certain slowdown, which may be related to the infrastructure funding gap period [6]. - **Science and Technology and Debt Interest Expenditure**: In June, science and technology expenditure increased by 18.1% year - on - year, while debt interest expenditure decreased by 6.3% year - on - year. As of the end of June, the cumulative net issuance of national debt was 3.4 trillion, and the net issuance of local debt was 4.4 trillion, with a total net issuance of government bonds of 7.8 trillion, accounting for nearly 60% of the annual quota. The budget expenditure completion rate in the first half of the year was only about 48%, the same as last year, which may be restricted by the decline in non - tax revenue and the narrow - based infrastructure gap period [8]. 4. Government - Managed Fund Revenue - **Revenue Growth**: In June, national government - managed fund revenue increased by 20.8% year - on - year (previous value: - 8.2%), reaching a new monthly high since 2021. The cumulative year - on - year decline in the first half of the year narrowed to - 2.4%, approaching the annual budget target of 0.7%. The cumulative year - on - year decline in state - owned land use right transfer revenue narrowed to - 6.5% (previous value: - 11.9%) [9]. - **Revenue Progress**: In the first half of the year, government - managed fund revenue completed about 31% of the annual progress, slightly faster than the past two years. However, the real - estate recovery foundation is not solid, and the sustainability of the stabilization of land transfer revenue remains to be observed. Policy - side efforts such as urban renewal may become new directions [9]. 5. Government - Managed Fund Expenditure - **Expenditure Growth**: In June, national government - managed fund expenditure increased by 79.2% year - on - year, up 70 percentage points from the previous value. The cumulative year - on - year growth in the first half of the year was 30.0%, exceeding the annual budget target of 23.1%, and the annual budget completion rate was about 37%, significantly faster than the same period last year [10]. - **Reasons for Growth**: The significant increase in government - managed fund expenditure is due to the continuous marginal improvement of land transfer revenue and the accelerated issuance and use of special bonds. In addition, the 500 - billion - yuan central financial institution capital - injection special treasury bonds for supporting large - state - owned commercial banks were issued in four installments from late April to early June, and most of them may have formed expenditures in June, supporting the year - on - year growth of central - level government - managed fund expenditure to reach 600% [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the implementation of an active fiscal policy in China to support stable economic operations, with a focus on increasing government spending despite a slight decline in revenue [2][12] - In the first five months of 2025, the general public budget expenditure reached 11.3 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.2%, with a completion rate of 37.4%, which is close to the average of the past five years [8][9] - The broad fiscal expenditure is projected to be 14.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 6.6%, while the revenue is expected to be 11.2 trillion yuan, showing a decline of about 1.3% [2][3] Group 2 - The general public budget revenue for the first five months was 9.7 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, with tax revenue declining by 1.6% to 7.9 trillion yuan [3][4] - Non-tax revenue increased by 6.2% to 1.7 trillion yuan, although it experienced a decline in May compared to the same month last year, marking the first negative growth in 2024 [4][6] - Government bond issuance accelerated, with 6.29 trillion yuan issued in the first five months, a year-on-year increase of 38.5%, to support fiscal spending [8][12] Group 3 - The government is focusing on social welfare, education, and health, with social security and employment spending reaching 2 trillion yuan, a growth of 9.2%, and education spending at 1.7 trillion yuan, up 6.7% [9][12] - The local government fund revenue, primarily from land sales, declined by 6.9% to 15.48 billion yuan, with land use rights revenue dropping by 11.9% to 11.28 billion yuan [7][8] - The fiscal deficit for the first five months was approximately 3.3 trillion yuan, indicating a deficit rate of 2.4%, which is higher than most levels in the past five years [12][13]

Group 1 - The overall fiscal situation shows signs of recovery, with broad fiscal revenue and expenditure growth rates rebounding to -1.3% and 7.2% respectively for January-April, and April figures improving to 2.7% and 12.9% [1][3] - Tax revenue recovery and a slight rebound in the land market have contributed to the improvement in revenue, while special bond issuance and the initiation of special treasury bonds have supported expenditure growth [1][3] - The fiscal space for further stimulus remains, as economic growth shows resilience despite external shocks, although uncertainties in exports may pose challenges to fiscal balance [1] Group 2 - National general public budget revenue for January-April reached 8.06 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of -0.4%, below the target growth of 0.1%, while April's revenue growth rose to 1.9% [3] - Central revenue turned positive with a growth rate of 1.6%, while local revenue decreased to 2.1%; tax revenue growth improved to 1.9% [3] - National fiscal expenditure for January-April was 9.4 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6%, exceeding the target growth of 4.4% [4] Group 3 - In April, the growth rates of value-added tax and consumption tax revenues declined, while corporate income tax growth significantly fell, and personal income tax saw a large increase of 67.5 percentage points [6] - Real estate-related tax revenues weakened, with both property tax and deed tax growth rates declining, although land value-added tax growth saw a slight narrowing of decline [6] Group 4 - In April, major expenditure categories showed mixed results, with transportation and technology spending growth exceeding 10 percentage points, while infrastructure spending's proportion continued to decline [8] - Government fund income growth narrowed to -6.7% for January-April, with April's growth turning positive at 8.1%, and land use rights transfer income growth rebounding to 4.3% [9] - Government fund expenditure growth increased to 17.7% for January-April, but remained below the target of 23.1%, with April's growth rising to 44.7% [9]

非税持续回落（ 5.9% ， 1-2 月 11% ） ，据财政部介绍， （一季度非税增幅）主要是部分上市中央金融企业分红入库、地方多渠道盘活资产等带动。 此外， 企 业所得税与非税去年以来首现"脱钩"，或显示地方财政压力阶段性缓释 （详见 《 2024 年财政数据的四个反常和启示》 ） ， 积极信号可继续观察。 文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 高拓（13705969808） 事项 3月广义财政收入同比-1.7%，1-2月同比-2.9%；3月广义财政支出同比10.1%，1-2月同比2.9%。 报告摘要 一、 收入端：单月增速转正，装备制造、科技等行业税收持续良好表现 3 月，财政收入同比 0.3% （ 1-2 月 -1.6% ），一季度预算收入进度 27.4% ，低于过去三年同期平均水平 。分税收和非税收入看： 税收降幅收窄（ -2.2% ， 1-2 月 -3.9% ），装备制造、科技等行业税收持续良好表现。 一季度， 制造业方面 ，装备制造业保持较高增幅，其中，铁路船舶航空 航天设备制造业、计算机通信设备制造业税收收入分别增长 32.4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant fiscal expansion planned for 2025, highlighting a target deficit rate of 4.0%, which is the highest in recent years, with a year-on-year increase in the deficit scale of 39.4%, marking the largest growth in the past decade [1][5][6]. Group 1: Narrow Fiscal Expansion - The target deficit scale for 2025 is set at 5.66 trillion yuan, reflecting a 39.4% increase compared to the previous year, which is the highest growth rate in ten years [5][6]. - The central government's deficit ratio is expected to rise to 86% in 2025, up from 66% in 2019, indicating a trend of increasing central government responsibility for fiscal deficits [1][8]. - Transfer payments from the central government to local governments are projected to exceed the central government's revenue target, demonstrating a shift in fiscal support dynamics [1][8]. Group 2: Broad Fiscal Expansion - The broad deficit rate for 2025 is estimated to be between 8.6% and 9.3%, higher than the 8.0% rate in 2024, indicating a significant increase in fiscal spending [2][15]. - The expected growth rate of broad spending is approximately 8.3%, compared to 2.7% in the previous year, suggesting a more aggressive fiscal policy approach [2][15]. - The fiscal authorities have indicated that there is room for further fiscal expansion to address potential uncertainties in the economic environment [2][19]. Group 3: Quasi-Fiscal Deficit Rate - The quasi-fiscal deficit rate, which includes factors such as policy banks and local government financing, is projected to be between 18.4% and 19.1%, an increase from 17.5% in the previous year [3][21]. - The net issuance of policy financial bonds in the first two months of the year has reached a high level, suggesting a favorable environment for increased financing [3][21]. - The dynamic adjustment of high-risk debt regions is expected to open new financing opportunities for local governments that meet the criteria for exiting high-risk status [3][21]. Group 4: Debt Management and Cash Flow Improvement - The government's efforts to clear corporate debts are expected to improve cash flow and credit conditions for businesses, enhancing their financing capabilities [4][25][28]. - The introduction of policies aimed at addressing overdue payments to enterprises is anticipated to stimulate economic activity and support small and medium-sized enterprises [4][25][30]. - The focus on resolving overdue payments is part of a broader strategy to enhance the financial health of the corporate sector and stimulate growth [4][25][30]. Group 5: Fiscal Rhythm and Timing - The fiscal rhythm for 2025 is expected to differ significantly from the previous two years, with a notable increase in government bond net financing in the first quarter [3][23][24]. - The issuance of special bonds and long-term treasury bonds is anticipated to accelerate in the second quarter, aligning with the government's economic priorities [3][23][24]. - The early issuance of bonds indicates a proactive approach by the central government to stimulate economic activity [3][23][24].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it implies a positive outlook for long-term assets and growth-oriented investments [10][11]. Core Insights - Recent long-term interest rates have returned to levels seen before last year's Central Economic Work Conference, indicating a shift in market sentiment. The stock market is experiencing a style switch, while commodities continue to show a mixed performance [2]. - The report identifies several core factors influencing the current economic landscape, highlighting both favorable conditions and uncertainties that investors should consider [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Broad Fiscal Policy - Favorable Conditions: The broad fiscal expansion this year is significant, with a budgeted expenditure growth rate of 9.3%, which is much higher than nominal growth. The broad deficit increase is expected to exceed 2 trillion yuan, potentially boosting GDP by about 1% [3]. - Uncertainties: The actual completion of fiscal policies remains uncertain, as past years have seen fiscal progress fall short of expectations. Key factors to monitor include the transition from heavy tax industries to subsidy-based sectors, cyclical characteristics of economic variables, and uncertainties in the real estate sector [3]. 2. Price Factors - Favorable Factors: The narrowing supply-demand gap is viewed positively, with efforts to address structural issues in key industries. Demand is expected to be supported by fiscal measures, consumption, and real estate [4]. - Unfavorable Factors: The base effect from last year's low prices and the recent low inflation factors may negatively impact year-on-year inflation readings, particularly in Q3. Additionally, long-term trends such as AI's impact on productivity may exert downward pressure on inflation expectations [4]. 3. Real Estate - Favorable Conditions: Stabilization in sales and improved funding for inventory reduction suggest a more positive outlook for inventory de-stocking in the real estate sector [5]. - Uncertainties: There are still divergences in expectations regarding household income, and the stabilization path for real estate requires certain conditions to be met, including timely policy adjustments and price elasticity [6]. 4. Exports - Favorable Conditions: Export companies have strategically diversified their markets, which helps mitigate external risks [7]. - Uncertainties: There are significant uncertainties related to the recent cooling of the U.S. economy and tariff uncertainties, which could impact export performance [8]. 5. Internal Momentum - Favorable Conditions: Improvements in expectations and confidence, along with AI-driven capital expenditures, are seen as positive for internal economic momentum. Policies aimed at boosting consumption and income for lower-income groups are also beneficial [9]. - Uncertainties: The transmission of internal momentum relies on the stabilization of the real estate market and fiscal spending, which may take time to materialize [9]. 6. Market Outlook - The current market expectations can be summarized as a slight improvement in long-term concerns, a clearer path to economic stabilization, and the need for certain preconditions to be met. Short-term data may still show divergence, but more positive signals are emerging [10]. - Long-duration assets are expected to outperform short-duration assets, and growth-oriented assets are favored over inflation-sensitive ones in the near term [10].