Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the implementation of an active fiscal policy in China to support stable economic operations, with a focus on increasing government spending despite a slight decline in revenue [2][12] - In the first five months of 2025, the general public budget expenditure reached 11.3 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.2%, with a completion rate of 37.4%, which is close to the average of the past five years [8][9] - The broad fiscal expenditure is projected to be 14.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 6.6%, while the revenue is expected to be 11.2 trillion yuan, showing a decline of about 1.3% [2][3] Group 2 - The general public budget revenue for the first five months was 9.7 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, with tax revenue declining by 1.6% to 7.9 trillion yuan [3][4] - Non-tax revenue increased by 6.2% to 1.7 trillion yuan, although it experienced a decline in May compared to the same month last year, marking the first negative growth in 2024 [4][6] - Government bond issuance accelerated, with 6.29 trillion yuan issued in the first five months, a year-on-year increase of 38.5%, to support fiscal spending [8][12] Group 3 - The government is focusing on social welfare, education, and health, with social security and employment spending reaching 2 trillion yuan, a growth of 9.2%, and education spending at 1.7 trillion yuan, up 6.7% [9][12] - The local government fund revenue, primarily from land sales, declined by 6.9% to 15.48 billion yuan, with land use rights revenue dropping by 11.9% to 11.28 billion yuan [7][8] - The fiscal deficit for the first five months was approximately 3.3 trillion yuan, indicating a deficit rate of 2.4%, which is higher than most levels in the past five years [12][13]

Group 1 - The overall fiscal situation shows signs of recovery, with broad fiscal revenue and expenditure growth rates rebounding to -1.3% and 7.2% respectively for January-April, and April figures improving to 2.7% and 12.9% [1][3] - Tax revenue recovery and a slight rebound in the land market have contributed to the improvement in revenue, while special bond issuance and the initiation of special treasury bonds have supported expenditure growth [1][3] - The fiscal space for further stimulus remains, as economic growth shows resilience despite external shocks, although uncertainties in exports may pose challenges to fiscal balance [1] Group 2 - National general public budget revenue for January-April reached 8.06 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of -0.4%, below the target growth of 0.1%, while April's revenue growth rose to 1.9% [3] - Central revenue turned positive with a growth rate of 1.6%, while local revenue decreased to 2.1%; tax revenue growth improved to 1.9% [3] - National fiscal expenditure for January-April was 9.4 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6%, exceeding the target growth of 4.4% [4] Group 3 - In April, the growth rates of value-added tax and consumption tax revenues declined, while corporate income tax growth significantly fell, and personal income tax saw a large increase of 67.5 percentage points [6] - Real estate-related tax revenues weakened, with both property tax and deed tax growth rates declining, although land value-added tax growth saw a slight narrowing of decline [6] Group 4 - In April, major expenditure categories showed mixed results, with transportation and technology spending growth exceeding 10 percentage points, while infrastructure spending's proportion continued to decline [8] - Government fund income growth narrowed to -6.7% for January-April, with April's growth turning positive at 8.1%, and land use rights transfer income growth rebounding to 4.3% [9] - Government fund expenditure growth increased to 17.7% for January-April, but remained below the target of 23.1%, with April's growth rising to 44.7% [9]

非税持续回落（ 5.9% ， 1-2 月 11% ） ，据财政部介绍， （一季度非税增幅）主要是部分上市中央金融企业分红入库、地方多渠道盘活资产等带动。 此外， 企 业所得税与非税去年以来首现"脱钩"，或显示地方财政压力阶段性缓释 （详见 《 2024 年财政数据的四个反常和启示》 ） ， 积极信号可继续观察。 文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 高拓（13705969808） 事项 3月广义财政收入同比-1.7%，1-2月同比-2.9%；3月广义财政支出同比10.1%，1-2月同比2.9%。 报告摘要 一、 收入端：单月增速转正，装备制造、科技等行业税收持续良好表现 3 月，财政收入同比 0.3% （ 1-2 月 -1.6% ），一季度预算收入进度 27.4% ，低于过去三年同期平均水平 。分税收和非税收入看： 税收降幅收窄（ -2.2% ， 1-2 月 -3.9% ），装备制造、科技等行业税收持续良好表现。 一季度， 制造业方面 ，装备制造业保持较高增幅，其中，铁路船舶航空 航天设备制造业、计算机通信设备制造业税收收入分别增长 32.4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant fiscal expansion planned for 2025, highlighting a target deficit rate of 4.0%, which is the highest in recent years, with a year-on-year increase in the deficit scale of 39.4%, marking the largest growth in the past decade [1][5][6]. Group 1: Narrow Fiscal Expansion - The target deficit scale for 2025 is set at 5.66 trillion yuan, reflecting a 39.4% increase compared to the previous year, which is the highest growth rate in ten years [5][6]. - The central government's deficit ratio is expected to rise to 86% in 2025, up from 66% in 2019, indicating a trend of increasing central government responsibility for fiscal deficits [1][8]. - Transfer payments from the central government to local governments are projected to exceed the central government's revenue target, demonstrating a shift in fiscal support dynamics [1][8]. Group 2: Broad Fiscal Expansion - The broad deficit rate for 2025 is estimated to be between 8.6% and 9.3%, higher than the 8.0% rate in 2024, indicating a significant increase in fiscal spending [2][15]. - The expected growth rate of broad spending is approximately 8.3%, compared to 2.7% in the previous year, suggesting a more aggressive fiscal policy approach [2][15]. - The fiscal authorities have indicated that there is room for further fiscal expansion to address potential uncertainties in the economic environment [2][19]. Group 3: Quasi-Fiscal Deficit Rate - The quasi-fiscal deficit rate, which includes factors such as policy banks and local government financing, is projected to be between 18.4% and 19.1%, an increase from 17.5% in the previous year [3][21]. - The net issuance of policy financial bonds in the first two months of the year has reached a high level, suggesting a favorable environment for increased financing [3][21]. - The dynamic adjustment of high-risk debt regions is expected to open new financing opportunities for local governments that meet the criteria for exiting high-risk status [3][21]. Group 4: Debt Management and Cash Flow Improvement - The government's efforts to clear corporate debts are expected to improve cash flow and credit conditions for businesses, enhancing their financing capabilities [4][25][28]. - The introduction of policies aimed at addressing overdue payments to enterprises is anticipated to stimulate economic activity and support small and medium-sized enterprises [4][25][30]. - The focus on resolving overdue payments is part of a broader strategy to enhance the financial health of the corporate sector and stimulate growth [4][25][30]. Group 5: Fiscal Rhythm and Timing - The fiscal rhythm for 2025 is expected to differ significantly from the previous two years, with a notable increase in government bond net financing in the first quarter [3][23][24]. - The issuance of special bonds and long-term treasury bonds is anticipated to accelerate in the second quarter, aligning with the government's economic priorities [3][23][24]. - The early issuance of bonds indicates a proactive approach by the central government to stimulate economic activity [3][23][24].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it implies a positive outlook for long-term assets and growth-oriented investments [10][11]. Core Insights - Recent long-term interest rates have returned to levels seen before last year's Central Economic Work Conference, indicating a shift in market sentiment. The stock market is experiencing a style switch, while commodities continue to show a mixed performance [2]. - The report identifies several core factors influencing the current economic landscape, highlighting both favorable conditions and uncertainties that investors should consider [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Broad Fiscal Policy - Favorable Conditions: The broad fiscal expansion this year is significant, with a budgeted expenditure growth rate of 9.3%, which is much higher than nominal growth. The broad deficit increase is expected to exceed 2 trillion yuan, potentially boosting GDP by about 1% [3]. - Uncertainties: The actual completion of fiscal policies remains uncertain, as past years have seen fiscal progress fall short of expectations. Key factors to monitor include the transition from heavy tax industries to subsidy-based sectors, cyclical characteristics of economic variables, and uncertainties in the real estate sector [3]. 2. Price Factors - Favorable Factors: The narrowing supply-demand gap is viewed positively, with efforts to address structural issues in key industries. Demand is expected to be supported by fiscal measures, consumption, and real estate [4]. - Unfavorable Factors: The base effect from last year's low prices and the recent low inflation factors may negatively impact year-on-year inflation readings, particularly in Q3. Additionally, long-term trends such as AI's impact on productivity may exert downward pressure on inflation expectations [4]. 3. Real Estate - Favorable Conditions: Stabilization in sales and improved funding for inventory reduction suggest a more positive outlook for inventory de-stocking in the real estate sector [5]. - Uncertainties: There are still divergences in expectations regarding household income, and the stabilization path for real estate requires certain conditions to be met, including timely policy adjustments and price elasticity [6]. 4. Exports - Favorable Conditions: Export companies have strategically diversified their markets, which helps mitigate external risks [7]. - Uncertainties: There are significant uncertainties related to the recent cooling of the U.S. economy and tariff uncertainties, which could impact export performance [8]. 5. Internal Momentum - Favorable Conditions: Improvements in expectations and confidence, along with AI-driven capital expenditures, are seen as positive for internal economic momentum. Policies aimed at boosting consumption and income for lower-income groups are also beneficial [9]. - Uncertainties: The transmission of internal momentum relies on the stabilization of the real estate market and fiscal spending, which may take time to materialize [9]. 6. Market Outlook - The current market expectations can be summarized as a slight improvement in long-term concerns, a clearer path to economic stabilization, and the need for certain preconditions to be met. Short-term data may still show divergence, but more positive signals are emerging [10]. - Long-duration assets are expected to outperform short-duration assets, and growth-oriented assets are favored over inflation-sensitive ones in the near term [10].

Group 1: CPI and PPI Overview - In January 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.5% year-on-year, up from 0.1% in the previous month, and rose by 0.7% month-on-month, compared to 0.0% previously[2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) remained at -2.3% year-on-year, consistent with the previous month, and the month-on-month decline slightly widened to -0.2% from -0.1%[2] Group 2: Seasonal and Policy Influences - The January CPI increase was weaker than seasonal expectations, which typically see an average month-on-month rise of 1.1% during the Spring Festival months[3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, has shown a continuous increase for four months, indicating some effectiveness of policies implemented since September 2024[3] Group 3: Sector Contributions - Key contributors to the CPI increase included food and beverage, transportation, education, culture, and entertainment, with respective year-on-year growth rates rising by 0.6%, 1.6%, 0.8%, and 0.5%[3] - Service consumption prices, particularly in tourism and household services, outperformed seasonal trends, with increases of 11.6%, 5.7%, and 1.5% month-on-month for various service categories[3] Group 4: Commodity Price Dynamics - Food prices rose by 0.4% year-on-year but were weaker than seasonal performance, with pork prices showing a modest recovery[6] - International crude oil prices increased, contributing approximately 0.1 percentage points to the CPI rise, with domestic gold and gasoline prices up by 3.0% and 2.5% respectively[6] Group 5: Future Outlook - The continuation of price recovery is contingent on effective policy measures and fiscal spending, particularly in infrastructure and industrial demand[11] - The PPI is expected to remain under pressure unless stricter industry regulations are introduced to support supply-side improvements[11]