12月上半月，锌价逐步抬升，矿端边际收紧使得锌矿加工费快速下移，且受锌精矿供应偏紧提振，沪锌 主力合约最高涨至23730元／吨， LME期锌最高涨至3220美元／吨附近。 美联储12月如期降息25个基点，并启动短期国债购买计划，预计通胀将在明年一季度见顶，美元指数偏 弱运行，整体略利多锌价。日本央行本周加息概率较高，可能引发市场情绪变化。上周五夜盘，前期涨 幅较大的白银、铜、铝期价自高位回落，对锌价有所拖累。 锌矿加工费降至低位 相关数据显示，今年1—9月全球锌矿累计产量936.1万吨，增加6万吨，同比增加7.5%。国内11月锌精矿 产量31.14万吨，较10月下滑1.94万吨，同比增加5.2%；1—11月累计产量336.9万吨，同比减少1万吨， 降幅为1.7%。 近期，北方部分矿山已进入冬季减产状态，国产矿供应持续收紧。进口端，我国10月锌矿进口34.1万 吨，环比大降32.5%，同比增长3.3%，内外比价不佳，锌矿进口亏损较大，进口量缩减，进口主要来源 于秘鲁、澳大利亚和俄罗斯；1—10月累计进口434.89万吨，同比增长37.3%。 由于锌矿加工费快速走低，冶炼厂生产压力明显增大。12月以来，仍有部分炼 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The Central Financial and Economic Work Conference determined the economic direction. With the improvement of market sentiment boosted by macro - policies, the polyolefin market stopped falling and rebounded. However, the current weak supply - demand fundamentals provide insufficient support for prices [3]. - For PE, the supply is expected to be loose and the demand is weak, with high inventory pressure and limited oil - based cost support. The short - term fundamentals are difficult to be substantially boosted, and the rebound space is limited [3]. - For PP, the supply is expected to remain high, the demand follow - up is insufficient, the inventory level is high, and the cost support is weakened. The short - term rebound drive is limited, and attention should be paid to cost and supply changes [4]. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价为6557元/吨（+71），PP主力合约收盘价为6254元/吨（+125）；LL华北现货为6500元/吨（+0），LL华东现货为6580元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6200元/吨（+0）；LL华北基差为 - 57元/吨（-71），LL华东基差为23元/吨（-71），PP华东基差为 - 54元/吨（-125） [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率为84.1%（+0.1%），PP开工率为78.3%（+0.7%） [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润为183.5元/吨（-105.5），PP油制生产利润为 - 436.5元/吨（-105.5），PDH制PP生产利润为 - 817.3元/吨（+75.2） [1]. - **Import and Export**: LL进口利润为 - 112.2元/吨（-116.8），PP进口利润为 - 322.4元/吨（-26.9），PP出口利润为 - 10.6美元/吨（+3.4） [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率为46.4%（-1.7%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.6%（-0.6%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.1%（+0.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为62.9%（+0.3%） [2]. Market Analysis - **PE**: Supply side, in December, the overall PE maintenance volume is not high, and the planned maintenance volume in the future is also relatively limited. The PE start - up is expected to continue to rise, and a new 500,000 - ton FDPE device of BASF is expected to be put into operation at the end of the year, so the supply pressure is continuous. Demand side, the overall downstream start - up of PE continues to decline, with the agricultural film start - up entering the off - season, and the demand for packaging film also weakening. Inventory side, although the PE social inventory is decreasing, the absolute inventory levels of LL and LD are still high, and the inventory pressure is expected to be large. Cost side, the oil price trend is weak, and the oil - based cost support is relatively limited [3]. - **PP**: Supply side, the previously shut - down enterprises are gradually restarting, the planned maintenance volume is relatively small, and the supply is expected to remain high. Demand side, the downstream demand start - up of BOPP, plastic weaving, etc. is okay, but the downstream replenishment is cautious. Inventory side, the overall inventory level is still high. Cost side, the international oil price is weak, and the cost support of PDH is weakened. The short - term rebound drive is limited, and attention should be paid to cost and supply changes [4]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Wait and see [5]. - **Inter - period Spread**: Go long on the L05 - 09 inter - period spread when it is low; go long on the PP05 - 09 inter - period spread when it is low [5]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: Short the L05 - PP05 spread when it is high [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, oil prices should not be overly shorted in the short - term. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to test OPEC's export price - support willingness [2]. - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market enters short - term consolidation. With high import arrivals and expected port olefin plant maintenance, there is still pressure on the port. The supply is at a high level, and the market is expected to consolidate at a low level. A wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading [3]. - For urea, the market is rising in a volatile manner. Demand has improved in the short - term due to reserve needs and increased compound fertilizer production. Supply is expected to decline seasonally. With export policy and cost support, the downside space is limited, and it is expected to build a bottom in a volatile manner. Buying on dips is recommended [6]. - For rubber, a neutral approach is taken, suggesting short - term operations. Holding a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is advised [12]. - For PVC, the enterprise's comprehensive profit is at a historical low, but supply reduction is limited, and demand is under pressure. With strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market, shorting on rallies is recommended before significant industry production cuts [13][15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, when the inventory reversal point appears, going long on the non - integrated profit of styrene can be considered. Currently, styrene's non - integrated profit is neutral to low, with potential for upward valuation repair [18]. - For polyethylene, OPEC +'s plan to suspend production growth in Q1 2026 may lead to a bottoming of oil prices. With high inventory and seasonal demand decline, shorting the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies is recommended [21]. - For polypropylene, with expected supply surplus in the cost side and high inventory pressure, the market may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year [24]. - For PX, it is expected to slightly accumulate inventory in December. With a neutral valuation, opportunities for going long on dips can be considered [27]. - For PTA, supply maintenance is expected to decrease, and demand will decline due to the off - season. With limited upside for processing fees, opportunities for going long on expected trading can be watched [29]. - For ethylene glycol, although domestic supply has improved due to unexpected maintenance, overall load is still high, and ports are in a inventory - accumulation cycle. Attention should be paid to the risk of a rebound caused by increased maintenance [31]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 3.60 yuan/barrel, a 0.82% decline, at 437.60 yuan/barrel. Singapore's ESG gasoline inventory increased by 1.86 million barrels to 14.99 million barrels, a 14.20% increase; diesel inventory decreased by 0.68 million barrels to 8.36 million barrels, a 7.48% decrease; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.50 million barrels to 26.06 million barrels, a 1.97% increase; total refined oil inventory increased by 1.69 million barrels to 49.41 million barrels, a 3.54% increase [8]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see in the short - term, and maintain a low - buy and high - sell range strategy [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu rose 13, in Lunan rose 20, in Inner Mongolia fell 2.5, in Henan remained unchanged, and in Hebei remained unchanged. The main futures contract fell 7 yuan/ton, to 2067 yuan/ton, with a basis of +31. MTO profit was - 72 yuan [2]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see for single - side trading as the market is expected to consolidate at a low level [3]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shanxi fell 10, in Shandong remained unchanged, and in Hebei remained unchanged. The total basis was reported at 65 yuan/ton. The main futures contract fell 13 yuan/ton, to 1625 yuan/ton [5]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips as the market is expected to build a bottom in a volatile manner [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices fluctuated. Exchange RU inventory warrants were low. As of December 4, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 62.99%, down 0.92 percentage points from the previous week but up 4.16 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.50%, up 1.13 percentage points from the previous week but down 5.15 percentage points from the same period last year. As of December 7, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 112.3 tons, a 1.9% increase; the total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 73 tons, a 2.4% increase; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 39.3 tons, a 1% increase. Qingdao's rubber total inventory was 48.48 (+0.98) tons [10]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral approach, short - term operations, and hold a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract fell 56 yuan, to 4220 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4250 (- 50) yuan/ton, with a basis of 30 (+6) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 253 (+33) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 79.4%, a 0.5% decrease; the downstream operating rate was 48.9%, a 0.2% decrease. Factory inventory was 34.4 tons (+1.8), and social inventory was 105.9 tons (unchanged) [12]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies before significant industry production cuts due to strong supply and weak demand [13][15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5225 yuan/ton, a 40 - yuan decrease; the closing price of the active contract was 5420 yuan/ton, a 41 - yuan decrease; the basis was - 195 yuan/ton, a 1 - yuan increase. The spot price of styrene was 6120 yuan/ton, an 80 - yuan decrease; the closing price of the active contract was 6442 yuan/ton, an 82 - yuan decrease; the basis was - 322 yuan/ton, a 2 - yuan increase. The BZN spread was 101 yuan/ton, a 0.5 - yuan decrease; the non - integrated device profit of EB was - 225.25 yuan/ton, a 15.5 - yuan increase; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was - 6 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan increase. The upstream operating rate was 67.29%, a 1.66% decrease; the inventory in Jiangsu ports was 16.42 tons, an increase of 1.59 tons. The weighted operating rate of three S was 42.34%, a 0.10% increase; the PS operating rate was 57.60%, a 1.70% increase; the EPS operating rate was 54.75%, a 1.52% decrease; the ABS operating rate was 71.20%, a 1.20% decrease [17]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene when the inventory reversal point appears [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6486 yuan/ton, a 121 - yuan decrease; the spot price was 6500 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan decrease; the basis was 14 yuan/ton, a 21 - yuan weakening. The upstream operating rate was 84.12%, a 0.05% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 45.4 tons, a decrease of 4.93 tons; the trader inventory was 4.71 tons, a decrease of 0.33 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 44.8%, a 0.11% increase. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 10 yuan/ton, a 18 - yuan increase [20]. - **Strategy**: Short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6129 yuan/ton, a 73 - yuan decrease; the spot price was 6130 yuan/ton, a 70 - yuan decrease; the basis was 1 yuan/ton, a 3 - yuan strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 77.97%, a 0.8% increase. The production enterprise inventory was 54.63 tons, a decrease of 4.75 tons; the trader inventory was 20.05 tons, a decrease of 1.29 tons; the port inventory was 6.53 tons, a decrease of 0.05 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 53.7%, a 0.13% increase. The LL - PP spread was 347 yuan/ton, a 30 - yuan decrease [22][23]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the supply - surplus pattern in the cost side to change in Q1 next year for potential support [24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract fell 48 yuan, to 6786 yuan; the PX CFR fell 5 dollars, to 831 dollars; the basis was 8 yuan (+13), and the 1 - 3 spread was 28 yuan (+10). China's PX load was 88.1%, a 0.1% decrease; Asia's load was 79.3%, a 0.7% increase. In December, South Korea's PX exports to China in the first ten days were 13.9 tons, a 0.5 - ton decrease year - on - year. The inventory at the end of October was 407.4 tons, a 4.8 - ton increase month - on - month. The PXN was 282 dollars (+9), the South Korean PX - MX was 144 dollars (+15), and the naphtha crack spread was 103 dollars (+2) [26]. - **Strategy**: Consider going long on dips as it is expected to slightly accumulate inventory in December with a neutral valuation [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract fell 50 yuan, to 4614 yuan; the East China spot price fell 30 yuan, to 4610 yuan; the basis was - 20 yuan (+1), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 60 yuan (- 2). The PTA load was 73.7%, unchanged. The downstream load was 91.2%, a 0.6% decrease. The social inventory (excluding credit warrants) on December 5 was 216.9 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons. The PTA spot processing fee remained unchanged at 172 yuan, and the futures processing fee fell 12 yuan to 181 yuan [28]. - **Strategy**: Watch for opportunities to go long on expected trading as supply maintenance is expected to decrease and demand will decline in the off - season with limited upside for processing fees [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract rose 28 yuan, to 3627 yuan; the East China spot price fell 28 yuan, to 3603 yuan; the basis was - 18 yuan (- 3), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 84 yuan (+24). The ethylene glycol load was 69.9%, a 2.9% decrease. The downstream load was 91.2%, a 0.6% decrease. The import arrival forecast was 15.5 tons, and the East China departure on December 11 was 1.3 tons. The port inventory was 81.9 tons, a 6.6 - ton increase. The naphtha - based profit was - 1015 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 1005 yuan, and the coal - based profit was 121 yuan [30]. - **Strategy**: Be aware of the risk of a rebound caused by increased maintenance as the overall load is high and ports are in an inventory - accumulation cycle [31].

本期 前值 周变动 本期 前值 周变动 开工率 84.35 80.74 3.61 开工率 73.844 73.627 0.217 产量 73.54 70.39 3.15 产线条数 219 218 1 重质产量 39.78 38.15 1.63 产量 108.4895 108.5095 -0.02 轻质产量 33.76 32.24 1.52 厂内库存 149.43 153.86 -4.43 库存 5822.7 5944.2 -121.5 重质库存 79.05 81.08 -2.03 库存可用天数 26.3 26.8 -0.5 轻质库存 70.38 72.78 -2.4 库存可用天数 12.39 12.76 -0.37 产销率 106.02 106.93 -0.91 天然气利润 -196.42 -223 26.58 氨碱法毛利 -67.6 -68.5 0.9 石油焦利润 35.64 21.36 14.28 联产法毛利 -49 -98.5 49.5 煤制气利润 6.51 6.52 -0.01 基差 10 -30 40 基差 71 47 24 1-5价差 50 70 -20 1-5价差 97 121 -24 品种套利 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the domestic pure benzene has a large real - time arrival pressure, with port inventory accelerating accumulation. The overseas gasoline shortage has passed, but the price difference between the US and South Korea in the pure benzene market is still being repaired. Downstream提货 is weak, and downstream开工 is further decreasing in the off - season. Styrene maintains low - load maintenance, CPL开工 drops to the lowest level of the year, phenol开工 rebounds, and aniline and adipic acid开工 fluctuate within a range [3]. - For styrene, port inventory further declines, and the port basis remains strong. Styrene maintains low - level operation, port inventory continues to decrease, and downstream提货 is acceptable. The downstream开工 shows differentiation. EPS开工 rebounds slightly in the off - season but still has inventory pressure; ABS开工 decreases due to continuous finished - product inventory pressure; PS开工 continues to rise at the end of the year as the finished - product inventory pressure eases [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spread - The pure benzene main contract basis is - 130 yuan/ton (+12), and the spot - M2 paper cargo spread is - 150 yuan/ton (+35 yuan/ton). The EB main contract basis is 156 yuan/ton (- 48 yuan/ton) [1]. 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene CFR China processing fee is 116 US dollars/ton (+2 US dollars/ton), and FOB South Korea processing fee is 113 US dollars/ton (+1 US dollar/ton). The pure benzene US - South Korea price difference is 195.0 US dollars/ton (+14.0 US dollars/ton). Styrene non - integrated production profit is - 140 yuan/ton (- 121 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress [1]. 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene port inventory is 26.00 million tons (+3.60 million tons), and styrene East China port inventory is 146,800 tons (- 13,800 tons), and the East China commercial inventory is 87,800 tons (- 8,600 tons). Pure benzene开工 rate data is not provided, and styrene开工 rate is 68.9% (+1.6%) [1]. 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - EPS production profit is 191 yuan/ton (+153 yuan/ton), PS production profit is - 9 yuan/ton (+153 yuan/ton), and ABS production profit is - 776 yuan/ton (+89 yuan/ton). EPS开工 rate is 56.36% (+1.61%), PS开工 rate is 59.00% (+1.40%), and ABS开工 rate is 68.30% (- 2.90%) [2]. 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam production profit is - 360 yuan/ton (+90), phenol - ketone production profit is - 952 yuan/ton (+25), aniline production profit is 848 yuan/ton (+95), and adipic acid production profit is - 1,129 yuan/ton (+59). Caprolactam开工 rate is 79.15% (- 7.53%), phenol开工 rate is 82.00% (+1.00%), aniline开工 rate is 77.23% (+0.04%), and adipic acid开工 rate is 60.00% (+0.60%) [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: None - Basis and Inter - period: Conduct inter - period positive arbitrage for EB2601 - EB2602 at low prices. - Cross - variety: Expand the spread of EB2601 - BZ2603 at low prices [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the pure benzene market, there is significant short - term arrival pressure in China, leading to accelerated accumulation of port inventories. The most critical period for overseas gasoline has passed, but the price difference between the US and South Korea in the pure benzene market is still being repaired. Downstream提货 remains weak, and downstream operating rates are at a low level during the off - season. - In the styrene market, the port basis continues to be strong. Styrene maintains low - level operation, and port inventories continue to decline. Downstream operating rates show differentiation, with EPS operating rate rebounding slightly, ABS operating rate decreasing due to inventory pressure, and PS operating rate continuing to rise at the end of the year [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spread - Pure benzene: The main basis is - 142 yuan/ton (+48), and the spot - M2 spread is - 185 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton) [1]. - Styrene: The main basis is 204 yuan/ton (+73 yuan/ton) [1]. 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: CFR China processing fee is 115 dollars/ton (+0 dollars/ton), FOB South Korea processing fee is 113 dollars/ton (+3 dollars/ton), and the US - South Korea spread is 181.0 dollars/ton (+1.1 dollars/ton) [1]. - Styrene: Non - integrated production profit is - 19 yuan/ton (-4 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress [1]. 3. Inventories and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: Port inventory is 26.00 million tons (+3.60 million tons), and the operating rate of downstream products shows different trends, with CPL operating rate dropping to the lowest level of the year, phenol operating rate rising, and aniline and adipic acid operating rates fluctuating within a range [1][3]. - Styrene: East China port inventory is 146,800 tons (-13,800 tons), East China commercial inventory is 87,800 tons (-8,600 tons), and the operating rate is 68.9% (+1.6%) [1]. 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream Products - EPS: Production profit is 38 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 56.36% (+1.61%) [2]. - PS: Production profit is - 162 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 59.00% (+1.40%) [2]. - ABS: Production profit is - 865 yuan/ton (-69 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 68.30% (-2.90%) [2]. 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream Products - Caprolactam: Production profit is - 450 yuan/ton (+20), and the operating rate is 79.15% (-7.53%) [1]. - Phenol - acetone: Production profit is - 977 yuan/ton (+0), and the operating rate is 82.00% (+1.00%) [1]. - Aniline: Production profit is 848 yuan/ton (+95), and the operating rate is 77.23% (+0.04%) [1]. - Adipic acid: Production profit is - 1188 yuan/ton (+45), and the operating rate is 60.00% (+0.60%) [1]. Strategies - Unilateral: None. - Basis and Inter - period: Go for long - short spread trading on EB2601 - EB2602 when the price is low. - Cross - variety: Expand the spread of EB2601 - BZ2603 when the price is low [4].

【行情资讯】 张正华 橡胶研究员 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn INE 主力原油期货收跌 10.30 元/桶，跌幅 2.26%，报 446.10 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收跌 58.00 元/吨，跌幅 2.34%，报 2418.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收跌 52.00 元/吨，跌幅 1.70%，报 3014.00 元/吨。 中国原油周度数据出炉，原油到港库存去库 1.91 百万桶至 205.87 百万桶，环比去库 0.92%； 汽油商业库存累库 2.03 百万桶至 87.33 百万桶，环比累库 2.38%；柴油商业库存去库 1.13 百 万桶至 90.57 百万桶，环比去库 1.23%；总成品油商业库存累库 0.90 百万桶至 177.90 百万 桶，环比累库 0.51%。 能源化工日报 2025-12-10 2025/12/10 原油 能源化工组 【策略观点】 我们认为尽管地缘溢价已经全部消散，OPEC 虽做增产但量级极低，与此同时我们观测到 OPEC 供给仍未放量，因而油价短期仍然不宜过于看空。基于此我 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Crude Oil - Monday saw a decline in international crude oil prices due to factors such as the resumption of normal operations in some Iraqi oil fields, the continuous production - increase plan of OPEC+, high - level US crude oil production, and an increase in crude oil inventory. However, the ongoing Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the expected Fed rate cut next week are likely to support prices. Short - term Brent crude is expected to trade between $60 - 65 per barrel [1]. Natural Rubber - On the supply side, the continuous decline in Thai raw material prices, the expected increase in overseas supply, the weakening of upstream cost support, and the seasonal increase in overseas shipments have led to a continuous build - up of natural rubber inventory, suppressing spot prices. On the demand side, although tire production is gradually recovering, the overall output increase is limited, and the market is mainly focused on inventory digestion. Short - term rubber prices are expected to be weak and volatile [3]. Methanol - Methanol futures fluctuated narrowly. Spot was purchased on - demand, and the basis was firm. Inland supply increased with plant restarts, but coal - and gas - based production profits were weak. Traditional downstream demand increased slightly, and winter fuel demand provided support. In ports, Iranian gas restrictions led to multiple plant shutdowns, strengthening the expectation of inventory reduction, but high overseas shipments and a large number of registered warrants kept prices weak. Attention should be paid to MTO05 [6][7]. LLDPE and PP - The operating load of polyethylene is gradually increasing, and supply is on the rise. Although upstream inventory is being depleted, it is still higher than the same period last year, and the profit from naphtha cracking is low. The supply of polypropylene is expected to increase after maintenance, and inventory depletion is accelerating, but the overall inventory level is still high. The cost of propylene is strong, compressing the profit of PP production processes. Overall, the fundamentals show a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - For pure benzene, domestic supply is expected to remain stable, downstream cash flow has improved slightly, but demand support is limited. There will be a large number of imports arriving at ports, and port inventory is expected to continue to build up. The short - term price driver is weak, and it may follow oil prices and styrene fluctuations. For styrene, although planned and unplanned maintenance is expected to increase, the overall operating rate may rise slightly, and port inventory may continue to decline. However, due to weak cost support and seasonal weakening of terminal demand, the upside space is limited [14]. Urea - Supply pressure is continuously released as the daily production on December 8 reached a recent high. Demand is in the off - season, and downstream procurement willingness is weak. Although the inventory depletion rate of enterprises has accelerated, the overall inventory level is still high. The mismatch between supply and demand is the main reason for price decline, and short - term prices are expected to be weak and volatile [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, short - term supply is less affected, but there is an expected supply contraction in the medium - term. Demand is relatively strong, and short - term price drivers are limited, but medium - term support is strong. PTA supply is expected to decrease in November - December, and demand is relatively strong, with short - term price support. Ethylene glycol is expected to continue to decline due to high overseas supply and inventory build - up. Short - fiber supply remains high, and demand is seasonally weak, with limited price drivers. Polyester bottle - chip supply is expected to increase in December, and demand is weak, with processing fees expected to be squeezed [16]. LPG - The data shows price fluctuations in LPG futures and spot markets, as well as changes in inventory and operating rates. Overall, the market is in a state of adjustment, and attention should be paid to changes in supply and demand and international market prices [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash production is at a high level, and it is expected to return to the inventory - build - up pattern this week. Downstream demand is shrinking, and the supply - demand pattern is bearish. Glass prices in some regions are weakening, and although there is still some short - term demand support, the medium - and long - term demand outlook is not optimistic [19]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda industry supply is abundant, demand is weak, and prices are expected to be weak. PVC supply pressure remains high, demand is low, and although there is some export advantage, overall supply exceeds demand, and prices are expected to be weak [20]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent crude fell from $63.75 to $62.49 per barrel (-1.98%), WTI from $60.08 to $58.88 per barrel (-2.00%), and SC rose from 453.40 to 456.40 yuan/ton (0.66%). Various spreads also showed different degrees of change [1]. - **Refined Oil**: Prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil all declined, and their spreads also changed [1]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: Crack spreads of various refined oil products in different regions decreased [1]. Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan Guofu new - type rubber increased slightly, while the price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased. The basis of whole - milk rubber increased [3]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread increased significantly, while the 1 - 5 and 5 - 9 spreads decreased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, production in Thailand, Indonesia, and China decreased, while production in India increased. Tire production and export decreased, and inventory increased [3]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices showed small fluctuations, and various spreads also changed [6]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all decreased [6]. - **Operating Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise operating rates increased slightly, while some downstream operating rates changed [7]. LLDPE and PP - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of LLDPE and PP decreased slightly, and various spreads changed [11]. - **Operating Rates and Inventory**: PE and PP operating rates showed different trends, and enterprise and social inventories decreased [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Crude oil, naphtha, and other upstream prices changed, and spreads between products also changed [14]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene prices and spreads showed different degrees of change [14]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories and operating rates in different regions changed [14]. Urea - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: Futures prices and spreads changed [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply increased, demand was weak, and inventory was at a high level [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: Upstream crude oil, naphtha, and other prices changed, and downstream polyester product prices and cash flows also changed [16]. - **PX, PTA, and MEG**: Prices, spreads, inventory, and operating rates of PX, PTA, and MEG all changed [16]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of LPG changed, and various spreads also changed [17]. - **External Market Prices**: LPG external market prices increased slightly [17]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: LPG inventory decreased, and upstream and downstream operating rates changed [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash prices and spreads changed [19]. - **Supply, Inventory, and Real - Estate Data**: Supply, inventory, and real - estate data showed different trends [19]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices and Spreads**: PVC and caustic soda prices and spreads changed [20]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Supply, demand, and inventory of PVC and caustic soda showed different trends [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pure benzene: Overseas gasoline supply is gradually recovering, leading to high short - term arrival pressure of pure benzene and a faster accumulation rate of port inventory. Domestic cracking load is low, and pure benzene production has declined. Downstream production is in the off - season and has further decreased, with styrene maintaining low - load maintenance, CPL production dropping to the lowest level of the year, phenol production rising, and aniline and adipic acid production fluctuating within a range [2] - Styrene: Styrene is still in the low - production maintenance stage, and the restart plan has been postponed. The port basis has strengthened slightly again, and factory inventory has declined again, but port inventory has not continued to be destocked, and there is still arrival pressure. Downstream enterprise procurement has driven the basis to strengthen. The downstream production shows differentiation. EPS production has a slight rebound in the off - season, but there is still inventory pressure; ABS production has decreased due to continuous finished - product inventory pressure; PS production has continued to rise since the end of the year as the finished - product inventory pressure has been alleviated [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spread - The report presents figures related to the basis of pure benzene and EB, including the pure benzene main contract basis, pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, pure benzene continuous first - contract to continuous third - contract spread, EB main contract basis, and EB continuous first - contract to continuous third - contract spread [7][12][16] 3.2 Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic and Foreign Spreads - Figures cover various aspects such as naphtha processing fees, pure benzene FOB South Korea - naphtha CFR Japan spread, styrene non - integrated device production profit, pure benzene FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea spread, pure benzene FOB US Gulf - CFR China spread, pure benzene FOB Rotterdam - CFR China spread, pure benzene import profit, and styrene import profit [19][21][29] 3.3 Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Production Rate - For pure benzene, it shows the inventory in East China ports and the production rate. For styrene, it includes the inventory in East China ports, East China commercial inventory, factory inventory, and the production rate [35][40][41] 3.4 Styrene Downstream Production and Production Profits - Covers the production rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS [46][47][51] 3.5 Pure Benzene Downstream Production and Production Profits - Includes the production rates and production profits of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, and other downstream products, as well as the production profits of related products such as PA6 regular spinning bright, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [55][62][70] 4. Strategies - Unilateral: No strategy [3] - Basis and inter - period: Consider a positive inter - period spread arbitrage for EB2601 - EB2602 when the price is low [3] - Cross - variety: Consider widening the spread for EB2601 - BZ2603 when the price is low [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The PG futures price declined. The basis was -43 (-57), and the spread between January and February contracts was 109 (-19). Domestic civil LPG prices decreased, the spread between propane and civil LPG narrowed, and the number of warehouse receipts was 4561 (-54). [1] - The prices of overseas paper goods decreased, the monthly spread strengthened, the change in the oil - gas price ratio between North Asia and North America was small. The domestic - overseas PG - CP spread was 126 (-2); PG - FEI was 114 (+3). The discounts for East China arrival, North America, and AFEI departure remained flat, the Middle East supply was tight with a discount of 35 US dollars (+13). Freight rates decreased slightly. [1] - The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed to -55 (+11). The profit of propylene production from PDH in Shandong slightly recovered, the alkylation unit slightly improved but was still poor, the MTBE production profit fluctuated, and the export profit was still good. [1] - The arrival volume increased, the external release decreased, factory inventories slightly increased, and port inventories increased. The PDH operating rate was 69.64% (-2.1), and the second - phase PDH of Dongguan Juzhengyuan was expected to restart next week. [1] - Overall, the domestic chemical sector was relatively strong, and civil demand increased, but the arrival volume was expected to be high in December; the Middle East supply was tight, but the market may tend to wait and see as the CP official price was approaching. Attention should also be paid to the weather and oil prices. [1] 3) Summary According to Related Data Daily Changes - On Thursday, for civil LPG, the price in East China was 4411 (+0), in Shandong was 4480 (+0), and in South China was 4530 (+0). The price of ether - after carbon four was 4460 (-20). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 101 (-21), and the spread between January and February contracts was 79 (-17). [1] - As of 15:00, FEI was 517 (+10) and CP was 502 (+3) US dollars per ton. [1] Weekly View - The PG futures price declined, the domestic civil LPG price decreased, the difference between propane and civil LPG narrowed, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased. [1] - Overseas paper goods prices declined, the monthly spread strengthened, the change in the oil - gas price ratio between North Asia and North America was small, and the domestic - overseas spreads changed. The discounts and freight rates had corresponding changes. [1] - The profit of some chemical production units changed, the arrival volume increased, the external release decreased, inventories increased, and the PDH operating rate decreased. [1] - The domestic chemical sector was relatively strong, civil demand increased, but the arrival volume was expected to be high in December, and the market may wait and see as the CP official price was approaching. Attention should be paid to the weather and oil prices. [1]