Group 1: Fiscal Policy Strengthening - The fiscal policy for 2025 is set to be more proactive, shifting from "moderate increase" in 2024 to "more vigorous" measures in 2025, emphasizing counter-cyclical adjustments to stabilize the economy[5] - The budget deficit rate for 2025 is expected to reach a historical high, with significant increases in government bond issuance and spending intensity[14] - The focus of fiscal resources will be on people's livelihoods, consumption, and new productivity sectors, while also addressing risks in local debts and real estate[14] Group 2: Debt Instruments Expansion - The issuance of special bonds is set to increase to 4.4 trillion yuan in 2025, a 12.8% increase from 3.9 trillion yuan in 2024[21] - The plan includes 5,000 billion yuan in special government bonds to support state-owned banks' capital replenishment, enhancing their risk resistance and credit capacity[17] - The scope of special bonds will expand to include land reserves and the acquisition of existing housing for public welfare, with a shift from a "positive list" to a "negative list" for eligible projects[21] Group 3: Existing and Incremental Policies - Existing policies will be accelerated, with special bonds and long-term special bonds being issued and utilized promptly to enhance effectiveness[39] - The government aims to release the effectiveness of existing policies while reserving space for new incremental policies as needed[39] - New policy financial tools are in preparation to support technology innovation, consumption, and foreign trade, with an estimated scale of around 500 billion yuan expected to leverage investments significantly[7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the mixed performance of various sectors in June, with a notable decline in coal-fired power generation and a slight recovery in construction-related activities [1][3][11] - The coal-fired power generation in June decreased by 1.8% year-on-year, contrasting with a 0.4% increase in May, indicating a downward trend in traditional energy sources as renewable energy gains market share [1][8] - Industrial operating rates showed seasonal characteristics, with steel and coking industries experiencing declines, while the automotive and chemical sectors, particularly styrene, showed marginal improvements [2][9][10] Group 2 - Infrastructure-related indicators improved significantly, with the national construction site funding availability rate at 59.1%, a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points [3][11] - Cement dispatch rates rose to 40.8% year-on-year, up 3.1 percentage points compared to the previous year, indicating a positive trend in construction activity [11][12] - The average daily subway ridership in major cities increased by 2.0% year-on-year, reflecting stable social activity despite seasonal weather impacts [13][13] Group 3 - New home sales showed signs of weakening, with the average daily transaction area in 30 major cities down 8.6% year-on-year, compared to a decline of 3.3% in May [4][15][16] - The automotive and home appliance sectors remained bright spots in the economy, with passenger car retail sales increasing by 24% year-on-year in early June [6][17] - The three major home appliances maintained high sales growth rates, with online sales showing significant fluctuations throughout June [18][19][20] Group 4 - Container throughput growth slowed, but the number of container ships sent to the U.S. showed signs of stabilization, with a year-on-year increase of 9.5% in June [6][21][22] - The overall economic picture for June reflects resilience in the automotive and home appliance sectors, while traditional infrastructure projects are gradually gaining momentum [23][23]

Group 1 - In May, China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5%, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment [1] - The increase in manufacturing PMI is attributed to the sustained implementation of growth-stabilizing policies, including monetary measures such as interest rate cuts [1][2] - The production index in May was 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points, indicating accelerated manufacturing activity, while the new orders index rose to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points [1] Group 2 - High-tech manufacturing PMI stood at 50.9%, remaining in the expansion zone for four consecutive months, while equipment manufacturing and consumer goods PMIs were 51.2% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing improvement [2] - The production expectation index for manufacturing enterprises was 52.5%, up 0.4 percentage points, reflecting stable confidence in market development [2] - New export orders and import indices were 47.5% and 47.1%, respectively, both showing increases of 2.8 and 3.7 percentage points compared to the previous month [2] Group 3 - From May 19 to May 25, monitored ports completed a cargo throughput of 27,134.8 million tons, a 2.8% increase, and a container throughput of 656.4 thousand TEUs, up 3.63% [3] - The rebound in export container freight indices and sustained high levels of port cargo throughput suggest a potential for continued export growth in May [3] - Analysts expect exports to maintain resilience in the second quarter, with high growth rates anticipated [3] Group 4 - The current international environment remains complex, necessitating continued efforts in stabilizing growth policies to solidify the economic recovery [3] - There is a call for increased government investment in public goods to boost market demand and corporate orders, which would support production and employment [3] - New incremental policies are expected to be introduced to further support economic stability and high-quality development [4]

Macro Overview - In the first five months of 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, with total revenue increasing by 2.7% [7][12] - The monetary policy is expected to remain "moderately loose," with potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions anticipated in the second half of the year [5][4] - The focus of structural monetary policy tools will be on technology, consumption, foreign trade, real estate, and the stock market [5][4] Industrial Profit Analysis - The profit margin for industrial enterprises recorded a cumulative 4.97% from January to May, showing a year-on-year decline of 0.22 percentage points [8] - The equipment manufacturing sector saw a profit increase of 7.2%, contributing 2.4 percentage points to the overall industrial profit growth [11] - The automotive manufacturing sector experienced a significant profit decline of 11.9% year-on-year, indicating challenges in the consumer goods manufacturing sector [12] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a positive outlook for the equity market, particularly in sectors related to new consumption and high-tech manufacturing, while maintaining a cautious stance on the bond market [13] - The anticipated decline in interest rates may provide a favorable environment for small-cap stocks, especially in the technology sector [18] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring policy continuity and the impact of international trade negotiations on domestic industries [12][13] Company-Specific Insights - Ying Shi Innovation, a leader in the panoramic camera market, is projected to achieve revenues of 5.57 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 65.3% from 2022 to 2024 [27] - The company holds a 67.2% market share in the global panoramic camera market, indicating strong competitive positioning [29] - The demand for smart imaging devices is diversifying, with applications in outdoor sports and vlogging, which are expected to drive growth in the sector [28]

Group 1: Company Overview - Zhongtung High-tech (000657.SZ) is a leading tungsten integrated giant backed by the Minmetals Group, completing a full industry chain layout from tungsten ore to powder, alloy, and tools, with global leading capacity levels [21][23]. - The company has benefited from the injection of the Shizhu Garden tungsten mine, which has filled resource gaps and contributed to non-tungsten revenue through by-products like fluorite, bismuth, and molybdenum [23]. - Revenue projections for Zhongtung High-tech are estimated at 15.6 billion, 16.5 billion, and 17.1 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 1.08 billion, 1.24 billion, and 1.32 billion yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 24.3, 21.3, and 20.0 times [23]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The tungsten market is expected to benefit from rising tungsten prices, with the company poised to gain from the steady progress of the Shizhu Garden tungsten mine expansion project [23]. - The PCB micro-drill business is identified as a significant growth driver for deep processing revenue [23]. - The overall performance of the tungsten industry is influenced by manufacturing growth rates and supply risks, which could impact future profitability [23].

广发证券首席经济学家 郭磊 guolei@gf.com.cn 摘要 第一， 2025年6月BCI读数为49.3，较前值下行1.0个点。这与前期出来的EPMI数据在指向上一致。6月经济继续确认边际放缓迹象。 第二， 销售和利润前瞻指数同步回落，环比分别下行2.7、2.9个点。我们估计可能和需求端一系列边际变化有关：一是房地产在经历放缓脉冲，6月前28天30城 成交同比为-17.8%；二是从港口集装箱吞吐量和EPMI的6月出口订货指标来看，外需存在放缓特征，可能和海外进口商利用关税平静期补库需求已集中释放有 关；三是"国补"换档、第三批资金待下达期间，家电3C产品等终端销售不排除存在短期扰动。 第三， 企业库存前瞻指数环比上行1.5个点。在销售和利润下降的条件下，逻辑上企业不会主动补库；所以库存上升属于需求放缓带来的被动补库。实际上5月规 上工业企业数据就已经显现出类似特征，在报告《5月企业盈利增速出现调整的原因》中，我们指出"价格回落下拉名义库存；但需求弱于供给、产销率下降导致实 际库存有一定程度的被动上升"。 第四， 企业投资和招工前瞻指数一上一下，投资小幅上行0.1个点，招工下行1.4个点。我们理解投资存在 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the significant fluctuations in the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate since May, highlighting its movement between strong and weak exchange guarantees and the underlying causes and potential market impacts [7][8]. - It addresses the recent pause in local government subsidies, examining the changes in the "old for new" mechanism compared to 2024 and the rapid usage of subsidies in certain regions [9][8]. - The article analyzes the rebound in M1 growth as of May, attributing it to the introduction of new policy financial tools and the expectation of stable credit performance [12][12]. - It explores the divergence between consumption and production, citing factors such as holiday distribution, e-commerce promotions, and declines in exports and investments [16][16]. - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is noted as a driver for rising gold and oil prices, indicating external influences on domestic markets [18][18]. Group 2 - The article outlines the recent policy initiatives in Shenzhen aimed at deepening reform and innovation, including enhancing collaboration between industry and academia, improving financial services for the real economy, and promoting talent acquisition [22][22]. - It highlights the Federal Open Market Committee's decision to maintain the federal funds rate at 4.25-4.50%, along with adjustments to economic and inflation forecasts, suggesting a potential for interest rate cuts in the future [25][25]. - The macroeconomic outlook is discussed, with a focus on the potential for "stagflation" and the implications for future economic policies and market conditions [26][26].

增量政策方面，最大的可能是落实前期提出的"设立新型政策性金融工具"，用作项目资本金，进而提振 投资。 6月20日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2025年6月20日贷款市场报价利率（LPR） 为：1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%。在上月双双下调10bp之后，6月均维持不变。 多位业内人士分析称，6月LPR不变符合市场预期，短期内将进入政策观察期，LPR报价有可能继续保 持稳定。 6月LPR为何维持不变？ 6月LPR报价维持不变，主要源于两方面原因。一是近期政策利率持稳，二是银行息差继续承压，LPR 继续下调受限。 6月政策利率保持不变，影响LPR报价加点的因素也没有发生重大变化。中国民生银行首席经济学家温 彬分析，当前，国内外形势发生了一定变化，使得短期内国内货币政策再度加码的必要性不强，政策利 率预计持稳，LPR报价也会维持稳定。 伴随5月降准落地、存款挂牌利率再度下调，商业银行负债成本得以继续改善，但存款定期化、长期化 趋势日益加剧，约束了存款成本的下降幅度。数据显示，2025年4月，居民和企业定期存款的占比分别 达到74.3%和74%，呈不断上升态势。此外，前期对公存款和 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for June remains unchanged, with the 1-year LPR at 3.00% and the 5-year LPR at 3.50%, aligning with market expectations [2][4][12]. Summary by Relevant Sections LPR Stability - The stability of the LPR is attributed to the recent policy rate cuts by the central bank and the unchanged 7-day reverse repurchase rate at 1.40% [4][12]. - The current LPR levels are seen as adequate for both corporate and personal loan rates, which are already low [7][12]. Banking Sector Insights - Commercial banks are facing pressure on net interest margins, which have decreased to 1.43%, down 9 basis points from the previous quarter, limiting their ability to lower LPR further [7][10]. - The focus for banks is on managing liability costs and optimizing asset structures to stabilize margins [10]. Economic Context and Future Outlook - The economic environment suggests that there is no immediate need for further monetary policy easing, with expectations that LPR will remain stable in the short term [9][12]. - The central bank's monetary policy aims to balance supporting the real economy while maintaining the health of the banking system, indicating a multi-faceted approach to monetary policy [9][12]. Financing Costs and Policy Measures - The current financing costs for enterprises and residents have significantly decreased, with "expensive financing" no longer being a primary concern [12]. - Future efforts to reduce overall financing costs may focus on lowering non-interest costs such as collateral and service fees rather than solely relying on LPR adjustments [12]. Potential Policy Changes - There is speculation about potential incremental policy measures in the second half of the year, particularly in response to economic conditions and external pressures [15][16]. - The introduction of new policy financial tools is anticipated to stimulate investment, with estimates suggesting that such measures could leverage significant amounts of credit demand [16].

Group 1: Policy Financial Tools - Historical policy financial tools were introduced as counter-cyclical measures to stabilize the economy and enhance local investment capabilities, characterized by low costs, quick deployment, and market-oriented operations [1][20][21] - New policy financial tools are expected to focus more on technology innovation, consumption, and foreign trade, with significant attention on their scale, leverage effects, and issuance rhythm [1][22] Group 2: Banking Sector - The loan interest rate is expected to decline significantly slower in 2025, with the LPR reform leading to a rapid decline in loan rates during certain periods, but a slowdown is anticipated moving forward [3][31][32] - The banking sector is likely to see a stabilization in performance due to reduced pressure on interest margins, with a recommendation to focus on high-quality regional small banks and stable state-owned banks [3][32] Group 3: Non-Banking Sector - Guoyin Financial Leasing - Guoyin Financial Leasing is projected to achieve total revenue of 28.56 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, and a net profit of 4.5 billion yuan, up 8.5% [3] - The company has seen rapid growth in its ship leasing segment, with revenue reaching 7.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.4% [3] Group 4: Non-Banking Sector - Blue Sky Technology - Blue Sky Technology reported a revenue of 2.554 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, with a net profit of 787 million yuan, up 9.8% [24] - The company’s adsorption materials business has shown strong growth, while the lithium extraction project has seen a significant decline in revenue [24][25] Group 5: Non-Banking Sector - Ruile New Materials - Ruile New Materials achieved a revenue of 1.459 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 20.7%, and a net profit of 252 million yuan, up 87.6% [27] - The display materials segment has become the largest business area for the company, driven by the increasing penetration of OLED panels [27][28][29]