1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For steel, the market is expected to improve, but the industry is still weak. Unilateral strategies can adopt a volatile mindset, and hot-rolled coil cash-and-carry arbitrage can be rolled. [2] - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the fundamentals continue to be under pressure, with high supply and weak demand. There is a high risk of a decline despite policy support. [3] - For coking coal and coke, the spot market may start restocking after the futures rebound. It is advisable to buy on dips. [5] - For iron ore, the price has fallen back after hitting a resistance level. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Steel - Weekend spot prices fluctuated little with light trading volume. The macro liquidity is abundant, and the commodity capital rotation logic remains valid. The iron ore price rose first, causing the basis to weaken and attracting cash-and-carry arbitrage. The iron production is increasing, and the pressure on plate destocking persists. The price has support at low levels. [2] - Strategies include using a range-bound approach for unilateral trading, rolling hot-rolled coil cash-and-carry arbitrage, or using options to assist in spot procurement and sales. [7] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Market sentiment is changeable, leading to significant price fluctuations. The demand is affected by poor steel prices and low mill profits, and it is difficult to improve in the off-season. The supply is high despite low alloy plant profits. There are policy supports and cost pressures, but the outlook is uncertain. [3] - Industrial customers are advised to hedge at high prices. [7] Coking Coal and Coke - The spot market has shifted from a fifth-round price cut expectation to a 1 - 2 round price increase expectation. The futures market rose on Wednesday due to supply-side news. The long-term coal supply is expected to optimize. The industry data is weak in the off-season, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking. It is advisable to buy on dips. [5] - The recommended strategy is to buy on dips. [7] Iron Ore - The price fell after hitting a resistance level due to the resonance of the commodity index and market rumors. The valuation is moderately high, and there is inventory pressure. The steel demand has slightly declined, and the overall fluctuation is limited. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines. [6] - The recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines. [7] Futures and Spot Market Data - Futures: On January 9th, the closing prices, price changes, and price change percentages of far-month and near-month contracts of various products (such as RB2610, HC2610) are provided, along with cross-month spreads, price differences, and profit margins. [1] - Spot: On January 9th, the spot prices and price changes of various products (such as Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar) in different regions are presented, as well as basis values. [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The rebound space of the black sector is limited, and attention should be paid to the spot-futures positive arbitrage opportunities. The coal and coke sectors are expected to fluctuate, and short-term trading is recommended for iron ore. [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Black Sector Trend Comparison - Last week, the black sector strengthened collectively, with coking coal leading the rise. In terms of index涨跌幅度, the strength relationship among varieties was coking coal > coke > iron ore > rebar > hot-rolled coil. [4] 02 Futures Market Rise and Fall Comparison - The overall atmosphere in the futures market was warm, with commodity prices generally rising, and the non-ferrous sector being the strongest. [4] 03 Spot Prices - Spot prices were stable with a slight upward trend, and iron ore had the largest increase. [13] 04 Profit and Valuation - Steel mill profitability remained stable, and the valuation of rebar futures was neutral. [14] 05 Steel Supply and Demand - Last week, steel production increased, demand decreased, and inventories began to accumulate, showing a seasonal weakening in the supply-demand pattern. [4][5] 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Port iron ore inventories continued to increase significantly, while steel mill iron ore inventories increased slightly. Steel mill restocking before the Spring Festival was not obvious. Iron ore shipments declined from the high level, but arrivals were still at a high level. With the resumption of steel mill production in January, pig iron production rebounded slightly from the low level, and it was expected to be in a pattern of inventory accumulation in the short term. [5] 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Last week, raw coal production rebounded, and coking coal inventories continued to accumulate. However, the news of coal mine capacity reduction boosted the market, and the near-month coking coal strengthened. [5] 08 Coke Supply and Demand - Coke production increased slightly month-on-month, and inventories changed little. The spot price of coke remained stable last week, and the profit of coking plants was already low, with limited room for further compression. However, the premium of coke futures was already large. [5] 09 Variety Spreads - The mill's disk profit deteriorated, and the rebar-iron ore price ratio declined. [32] 10 Key Data/Policy/Information - There were various domestic and international policies, news, and events, including geopolitical events, production plans of OPEC+, regulatory adjustments of the futures exchange, and industry regulations. The EU carbon tariff was officially implemented at the beginning of 2026, which would significantly increase the cost of steel exports to the EU. [37]

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term and may rise further in 2026 compared to 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and the role of Central Huijin [1]. - The bond market is favored by asset shortages and weak economic conditions, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks [1]. - Metal prices are influenced by factors such as supply disruptions, macro sentiment, and cost changes. Some metals are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility or are subject to supply concerns [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand, and cost support. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. - Agricultural product prices are influenced by factors such as seasonal changes, policy support, and supply and demand. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. Summary by Category A-shares - A-share market has continuous trading volume increase. Short-term, the index is expected to remain strong. In 2026, the index may continue to rise on the basis of 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and Central Huijin [1]. Bonds - Asset shortages and weak economic conditions are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. Metals - Copper: Supply disruptions and improved macro sentiment have led to a rise in copper prices, and the upward trend is expected to continue [1]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, but macro sentiment is positive, and global aluminum ingot supply is expected to tighten, leading to a strong aluminum price [1]. - Alumina: Supply has significant release potential, putting pressure on prices. However, the current price is close to the cost line, and the price is expected to oscillate [1]. - Zinc: Fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. With positive macro sentiment, zinc prices have risen, but the upside space is limited due to fundamental pressure [1]. - Nickel: Supply concerns have led to a significant increase in nickel prices and an increase in positions. The short-term price may be strongly oscillating, but high risks and volatility are present at high price levels. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro sentiment [1]. Industrial and Energy Chemicals - Polycrystalline silicon: Northwest production has increased, while southwest production has decreased. December production schedules for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon have declined [1]. - Carbonate lithium: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, with strong energy storage demand and increased supply from restarts. Prices have risen rapidly in the short term [1]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Futures-spot arbitrage positions can be rolled for profit-taking. The price valuation is not high, and short-selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron ore: Near-term contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is positive, and there is still an upward opportunity for far-term contracts [1]. - Silicone and ferrosilicon: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. In the short term, expectations dominate, and energy consumption control and anti-involution may disrupt supply [1]. - Soda ash: The market sentiment has improved, and the supply and demand are supportive. The price is low and expected to be strong in the short term [1]. - Coking coal and coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, there may still be room for price increases, but the actual increase is difficult to judge, and volatility increases after a significant rise [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil: The December MPOB data is expected to be bearish, but the price is expected to reverse under themes such as seasonal production cuts, the B50 policy, and US biofuels. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for [1]. - Soybean oil: The fundamentals are strong, and it is recommended to be overweight in the oil market. Consider the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to the central government's No. 1 document in the first quarter of next year, planting area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak season demand [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and increased domestic supply. The short side consensus is strong. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short term [1]. - Corn: With the release of reserve and imported grains, the supply has increased. The spot price is expected to be firm in the short term, and the futures price will oscillate within a range [1]. - Pulp: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate between 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the tug-of-war between "strong supply" and "weak demand" [1]. - Logs: The spot price has shown signs of bottoming out and rebounding, and the downward space for the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas quotation has slightly declined, and there is a lack of upward driving factors. The price is expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. The uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, with no prominent supply-demand contradictions [1]. - Asphalt: The "14th Five-Year Plan" rush demand is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The profit margin is high [1]. - Natural rubber: The raw material cost provides strong support, the futures-spot price difference has rebounded significantly, and the midstream inventory has increased substantially [1]. - BR rubber: The upward momentum has slowed down, the spot price has led the recovery of the basis, and the processing profit has narrowed. There are positive factors for future domestic butadiene exports [1]. - PTA: The PX market has experienced a sharp rise, and the PTA market is expected to remain tight in 2026. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the gasoline spread provides support for aromatics [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Two MEG plants in Taiwan, China, plan to shut down next month. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply-side news, and the downstream demand is slightly better than expected [1]. - Styrene: The Asian market is stable, with suppliers reluctant to cut prices due to losses and buyers pressing for lower prices due to weak downstream demand. The market is in a weak balance, and the upward momentum depends on overseas markets [1]. - Urea: The export sentiment has eased, and the upside space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side [1]. - PE: There is a risk of rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts. The supply pressure is high, and the market expectation is weak due to planned production increases in 2026 [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is high, and the downstream improvement is less than expected. The cost is supported by high propylene monomer and crude oil prices [1]. - PVC: The global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the current supply pressure is rising. The demand is weak, and the implementation of differential electricity prices in the northwest may force the clearance of PVC production capacity [1]. - LPG: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, and the import cost provides strong support. Geopolitical conflicts have increased the risk premium. The inventory accumulation trend has slowed down, and the domestic port inventory is decreasing. The long-term demand for LPG is expected to increase [1]. Aviation - It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumptions [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but gives specific ratings for some individual industries, such as "看多" (Bullish) for glass [1]. Core Viewpoints - The stock index is expected to continue its strong trend in the short - term and may rise further in 2026 due to macro - policy support, inflation recovery, and capital market reforms [1]. - The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has warned of interest rate risks in the short - term [1]. - Metal prices are generally affected by macro - sentiment and supply - demand fundamentals. Some metals like copper, aluminum, zinc, and nickel may show strong trends, while others like alumina may oscillate [1]. - Agricultural products' prices are influenced by factors such as seasonality, supply - demand, and policy. For example, corn is expected to be strong in the short - term [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are affected by factors like geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand, and cost. For example, the price of crude oil has an upward risk due to geopolitical conflicts [1]. Summary by Industry Macro - Financial - Stock index: Expected to continue a strong trend in the short - term and rise in 2026 with policy support, inflation recovery, and capital inflow [1]. - Bond futures: Favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term interest rate risks are warned [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: Higher due to supply disruptions and improved macro - sentiment [1]. - Aluminum: Expected to remain strong with tight supply expectations and positive macro - sentiment [1]. - Alumina: Likely to oscillate as supply has room to release but the price is near the cost line [1]. - Zinc: Price has risen, but the upside space is limited due to fundamental pressure [1]. - Nickel: May be strong in the short - term due to supply concerns and policy uncertainties [1]. - Stainless steel: Expected to be strong in the short - term, with suggestions of short - term long positions [1]. - Tin: Strengthened due to positive macro - sentiment, but the follow - up is affected by market sentiment [1]. - Precious metals: Expected to be strong in the short - term due to geopolitical risks and safe - haven demand [1]. - Platinum and palladium: May have strong and wide - range fluctuations in the short - term, with platinum recommended for long - term long positions or arbitrage [1]. Industrial Metals - Industrial silicon: Capacity is expected to decline in the long - term, with high short - term speculative sentiment [1]. - Polysilicon: Terminal installation increases, and big manufacturers are reluctant to sell [1]. - Lithium carbonate: Rising rapidly in the short - term due to peak season and strong demand [1]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Valuations are not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron ore: Near - month contracts are restricted, but far - month contracts have upward potential [1]. - Ferrous metals: Facing a situation of weak reality and strong expectations, price is under pressure in the short - term but may be affected by supply policies [1]. - Glass: Bullish, with supply - demand support and low valuation [1]. - Soda ash: Follows glass, with limited downside space [1]. - Coke and coking coal: Likely to oscillate widely, with attention on price drops during the price - cut implementation period [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil: May reverse due to seasonal factors and policies after the MPOB December data shows a possible short - term negative impact [1]. - Soybean oil: Recommended for long positions in the oil market, with a suggestion of long Y and short P spreads [1]. - Rapeseed oil: May decline due to global supply increase, but beware of short - term rebounds [1]. - Cotton: Currently in a situation of support but lack of drivers, with future attention on policies and weather [1]. - Sugar: Globally oversupplied, with cost support if the price drops further [1]. - Corn: Expected to be strong in the short - term due to low inventory and potential downstream restocking [1]. - Soybean meal: M03 - M05 is expected to be in a positive spread in the short - term, but operation should be cautious [1]. - Pulp: Expected to oscillate between 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton [1]. - Logs: Expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. - Livestock: Demand is stable, but capacity needs further release [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Has an upward risk due to geopolitical conflicts, but supply may increase [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows crude oil, with short - term supply - demand contradictions not prominent [1]. - Asphalt: High profit, with supply and demand affected by various factors [1]. - BR rubber: High - inventory operation, with attention on price trends [1]. - PX and PTA: PX has a strong market, and PTA maintains high - level operation [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Rebounded due to supply - side news, with high downstream demand [1]. - Short - fiber: Follows cost fluctuations [1]. - Styrene: In a weak - balance state, with upward momentum depending on overseas markets [1]. - Urea: Limited upside space due to weak domestic demand, but supported by cost [1]. - Propylene: Supply pressure is large, but cost support is strong [1]. - PVC: Future expectations are mixed, with potential capacity reduction [1]. - LPG: Cost - supported, with short - term risk premiums rising [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the stock index may continue a relatively strong trend, but attention should be paid to the impact of overseas geopolitical events on market risk appetite. In the long - term, the stock index is expected to rise in 2026 based on 2025 [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - Different commodities have various trends, including price increases, oscillations, and potential reversals, with corresponding investment strategies recommended [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Short - term, the stock index may continue to be strong, and in the long - term (2026), it is expected to rise on the basis of 2025 due to factors like continuous policy efforts, inflation recovery, capital market reform, and the support of Central Huijin [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy benefit bond futures, but the central bank warns of interest - rate risks, and the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision should be watched [1]. Metals Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The price has further increased due to weak industry fundamentals but positive macro sentiment and continuous premium. However, short - term adjustment risks should be guarded against, and the upward trend is expected to continue [1]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, but positive macro sentiment and the early fermentation of supply - tightness expectations are likely to keep the price strong [1]. - Alumina: The supply side has a large release space, and the weak industry fundamentals put pressure on the price. However, the current price is near the cost line, so it is expected to oscillate [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, recent negative factors have been mostly realized, and market sentiment is volatile, leading to price oscillations [1]. - Nickel: Positive macro sentiment, concerns about supply due to Indonesian events, slow inventory accumulation, and unconfirmed Indonesian policies are likely to keep the short - term price strong. It is recommended to go long at low prices and control risks [1]. - Stainless Steel: Positive macro sentiment, concerns about raw - material supply, a rebound in nickel - iron prices, a slight reduction in social inventory, and an increase in January production plans are likely to keep the short - term futures price strong. It is recommended to go long at low prices, and enterprises should wait for opportunities to sell and hedge [1]. - Tin: The industry association's initiative has put pressure on the price, but considering the tense situation in Congo - Kinshasa, the supply may still be affected. After a short - term decline, the downward space is limited, and low - long opportunities near the support level are recommended [1]. - Precious Metals: Geopolitical risks and international - order uncertainties have boosted the demand for hedging, making the price strong in the short - term. However, the high VIX of silver indicates potential risks. Platinum and palladium are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and platinum can be bought at low prices or a [long - platinum short - palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted in the long - term [1]. Black Metals - Iron Ore: There is a combination of weak reality (weak direct demand, high supply, and inventory accumulation) and strong expectation (potential supply disturbances from energy - consumption control and anti - involution). The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, while the far - month contract has upward potential [1]. - Steel (including Rebar): The valuation of the price is not high, and it is not recommended to short. Positions in cash - and - carry arbitrage can take rolling profits [1]. - Glass: Supply and demand are acceptable, and the valuation is low, so the downward space is limited, and it may be under pressure to oscillate [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass, with acceptable supply and demand, low valuation, and limited downward space, and may oscillate under pressure [1]. - Coking Coal: The fourth - round spot price cut has started. After the futures price dropped to the corresponding position and rebounded, attention should be paid to whether it can reach a new low during the implementation of the price cut. There is a high possibility of wide - range oscillations [1]. - Coke: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC + has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact on the price [1]. - Fuel Oil: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five - Year Plan's rush - work demand is falsified, the supply of Marey crude oil is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is high [1]. - Asphalt: The cost is strongly supported, the spot - futures price difference is low, and the mid - stream inventory may tend to accumulate [1]. - Rubber: For natural rubber, the mid - stream inventory may tend to accumulate, and the price oscillates. For BR rubber, the futures position has declined, the price increase has slowed down, the processing profit is gradually repaired, it maintains high - level operation in terms of production and inventory, and the spot trading is weak [1]. - PTA: The PX market has experienced a sharp increase, and the domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the recovery of exports to India since the end of November [1]. - MEG: Two sets of MEG devices in Taiwan, China, are planned to stop production due to efficiency reasons. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply - side news, and the downstream polyester operating rate is over 90%, with better - than - expected demand [1]. - Short - fiber: The price continues to fluctuate closely following the cost [1]. - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to reduce prices due to continuous losses, while buyers keep pressing prices due to weak downstream demand and profit compression. The market is in a weak - balance state, and the short - term upward momentum depends on overseas market drive [1]. - Steam: The upward space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1]. - Propylene: The supply pressure is large, the downstream improvement is less than expected, the cost is strongly supported by high - level propylene monomers and rising crude - oil prices, and there is a risk of rising crude - oil prices due to intensified geopolitical conflicts [1]. - PVC: The global production in 2026 is expected to be low, but currently, new capacity is being released, the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak [1]. - Chlorine: The inventory pressure in Shandong is large, the supply pressure is high due to high - level operation and few overhauls, the non - aluminum demand is in the off - season, and the cost support is weakened by the rising price of liquid chlorine [1]. - LPG: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, providing strong cost - end support. Geopolitical conflicts in the US, Venezuela, and the Middle East have increased the short - term risk premium. The EIA weekly C3 inventory is in an accumulation trend, with a temporary slowdown in overseas demand. The domestic PDH maintains high - level operation but is deeply in deficit, and the overseas olefin blending - oil demand is acceptable [1]. New Energy and Silicon Industry - Polysilicon: There is production increase in the northwest and decrease in the southwest. The December production plan has decreased. A capacity storage platform company has been established, with a long - term expectation of capacity reduction. The terminal installation in the fourth quarter has increased marginally. Large enterprises are willing to support the price but not to deliver. The short - term speculative sentiment is high [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: It is the traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles, the energy - storage demand is strong, the supply - side production resumption has increased, and the price has risen rapidly in the short - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be negative, but it may reverse under themes such as seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel. If the price gaps up due to geopolitical events, short - selling can be considered [1]. - Soybean Oil: It follows the trend of other oils in the short - term, and waiting for the January USDA report is recommended [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: News of blocked trader purchases and Australian seed imports has led to a large rebound in the single - side price and the 1 - 5 spread, but it is difficult to change the subsequent loosening of the fundamental situation. A decline in sentiment is expected, and short - selling on rebounds can be considered [1]. - Cotton: The domestic new - crop harvest is expected to be good, but the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream operation rate remains low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, with rigid restocking demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and attention should be paid to factors such as the central government's No. 1 Document in the first quarter of next year, planting - area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak - season demand [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and a large supply of domestic new - crop sugar, with a strong consensus on short - selling. If the futures price continues to fall, the cost support is strong, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous driving forces, and attention should be paid to changes in the capital side [1]. - Corn: The grass - roots grain - selling progress is relatively fast, the current port and downstream inventory levels are still low, and most traders have not started strategic inventory building. The spot price is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the futures price is expected to have limited decline and then maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend [1]. - Soybeans: Attention should be paid to the adjustment in the January USDA report and the impact of Brazilian harvest selling pressure on CNF premiums. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak, while the M03 - M05 spread is expected to be in a positive - arbitrage situation in the short - term, but caution should be exercised due to potential changes in customs policies, soybean auctions, and directional policies [1]. - Pulp: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the tug - of - war between "strong supply" and "weak demand" [1]. - Logs: The spot price has shown signs of bottom - rebounding, and the downward space of the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas quotation has slightly declined, and there is a lack of upward - driving factors in the spot - futures market. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. Livestock - Hogs: The spot price has gradually stabilized recently, with demand support. The slaughter weight has not been fully cleared, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1].

Group 1: Overall Market Situation - The performance of overseas markets was strong during the holiday, but the geopolitical situation change on Saturday increased the uncertainty of the post - holiday risk - asset trend. Short - term attention should be paid to the impact of overseas events on the risk appetite of domestic equity assets [1] Group 2: Fixed - Income Market - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1] Group 3: Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - The industrial situation is weak recently, but the macro sentiment is positive, and the premium of US copper persists, so the copper price has further increased. However, there is a short - term adjustment risk, though the trend is expected to remain unchanged [1] Aluminum - Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory recently, and the industrial driving force is limited. But with positive macro sentiment and the early fermentation of the expected tight supply of aluminum ingots, the aluminum price is expected to remain strong [1] Alumina - The supply side of alumina still has a large release space, and the weak industry pressures the price. But the current price is basically near the cost line, so the price is expected to fluctuate [1] Zinc - The fundamentals of zinc have improved, the cost center has shifted up, and recent negative factors have basically materialized. Market sentiment is volatile, and the zinc price fluctuates [1] Nickel - The macro sentiment has warmed up. News about Indonesia has further boosted market concerns about nickel - ore supply. The global nickel - inventory accumulation speed has slowed down, and the Shanghai nickel price has risen significantly recently with increased positions. The short - term nickel price may be strong, and attention should be paid to Indonesia's policies and macro sentiment. Short - term low - buying is recommended, and excessive chasing of highs should be avoided [1] Stainless Steel - The raw - material nickel - iron price has rebounded, the social inventory of stainless steel has slightly decreased, and steel mills' production in January has increased. The short - term stainless - steel futures are expected to be strong and volatile. Short - term low - buying is recommended, and enterprises should wait for opportunities to sell on rallies [1] Tin - The non - ferrous tin industry association issued an initiative to guide the price back to the normal range, pressuring the tin price. Considering the tense situation in Congo - Kinshasa, there may be further fermentation of tin supply. After a short - term adjustment, the downside space is limited, and low - buying opportunities near the support level are recommended [1] Group 4: Precious Metals and New Energy Precious Metals - The geopolitical situation is tense, and precious - metal prices are still supported, but the VIX of Shanghai silver is still high, and there may still be short - term games. In the long run, the logic of precious metals remains unchanged. Based on the fact that silver may no longer be undervalued compared with gold, priority should be given to low - buying gold in the future [1] Platinum and Palladium - During the New Year's Day holiday, the prices of platinum and palladium in the overseas market rose significantly, which is expected to boost domestic prices. But in the short term, they may still have high volatility. In the medium - to - long term, there is a supply - demand gap for platinum, while palladium tends to have a loose supply. Platinum can be bought on dips or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted [1] Industrial Silicon - In the northwest, production increases, while in the southwest, it decreases. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon decreased in December. A capacity storage platform company has been established, and there is a medium - to - long - term expectation of capacity reduction. Terminal installations increased marginally in the fourth quarter. Large enterprises have a strong willingness to support prices and a low willingness to deliver. Short - term speculative sentiment is high [1] Lithium Carbonate - It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, and the demand for energy storage is strong. The supply side has increased production resumption, and there is a short - term rapid increase. Rolling profit - taking of long - spot and short - futures positions can be carried out. The basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1] Group 5: Steel and Iron - Related Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Rolling profit - taking of long - spot and short - futures positions can be carried out. The basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1] Iron Ore - The near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contracts still have upward opportunities [1] Ferrous Metals (General) - There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectation. In reality, direct demand is weak, supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price is under pressure. In expectation, energy - consumption dual control and anti - involution may disrupt supply [1] Group 6: Building Materials Glass - The supply and demand are supported, the valuation is low, and there are renewed supply disruptions. The price is expected to be strong in the short term [1] Soda Ash - It follows the trend of glass. The supply and demand are acceptable, the valuation is low, the downward space is limited, and it may be under pressure and fluctuate [1] Coking Coal and Coke - The fourth round of spot price cuts has started. After the futures price fell to the level of the fourth - round cut and then rebounded, attention should be paid to whether the futures price can reach a new low during the period from the price - cut announcement to implementation. If the price - cut negative factors cannot drive continuous decline, the futures price is likely to continue to fluctuate widely [1] Group 7: Agricultural Products Palm Oil - The MPOB December data is expected to be negative for palm oil, but it will reverse under themes such as seasonal production cuts, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel. If the oil price gaps up due to geopolitical events, short - selling can be considered [1] Soybean Oil - It follows the trend of other oils in the short term. Waiting for the January USDA report is recommended [1] Rapeseed Oil - Recent news has brought a large rebound to the rapeseed - oil price and the January - May spread, but it is difficult to change the subsequent marginal loosening of the fundamentals. A rebound in sentiment is expected to subside, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [1] Cotton - There is a strong expectation of a domestic new - crop harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream operation rate remains low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, and there is a rigid restocking demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding direct - subsidy prices and cotton - planting areas, the intention of next year's cotton - planting area, weather during the planting period, and the peak - season demand from March to April [1] Sugar - Currently, there is a global sugar surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply has increased. The short - selling consensus is relatively consistent. If the futures price continues to fall, the cost support below is strong, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous drivers. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital side [1] Corn - The progress of grassroots grain sales of corn is relatively fast. Currently, the inventory levels at ports and downstream are still low, and most traders have not started strategic inventory building. It is expected that the spot price will remain strong in the short term under the restocking demand of the middle and lower reaches, and the futures price is expected to have limited回调 and remain strong and fluctuate later [1] Soybean Meal - Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the January USDA report and the manifestation of Brazil's harvest selling pressure on CNF premiums. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak. In the first quarter, the concentrated ownership of imported - soybean cargo rights will bring a domestic supply - structure problem, which supports the M03 contract. The M03 - M05 spread is still expected to be in a positive - arbitrage situation in the short term. Attention should be paid to changes in customs policies, imported - soybean auctions, and targeted policies [1] Pulp - Pulp futures have recently been pulled by the "weak demand" reality and the "strong supply" expectation, with large fluctuations. A wait - and - see approach for single - side trading is recommended, and a January - May reverse - arbitrage strategy can be considered for the spread [1] Logs - Log futures have declined due to the decline in overseas quotes and spot prices. The pressure on the 01 contract is large as it approaches the delivery month, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [1] Hogs - The spot price has gradually stabilized recently. Supported by demand and with the unsold weight of slaughtered hogs still remaining, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Group 8: Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - There is a risk of oil - price increase due to the conflict between the US and Venezuela. There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is high, there are overseas arrivals, and the supply has increased. The downstream demand and operation rate have weakened. In 2026, there will be more new production, further intensifying the supply - demand surplus, and the market expectation is weak [1] Fuel Oil - OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement has an impact, and the US has sanctioned Venezuelan oil exports [1] Asphalt - The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is likely to be disproven, the supply of Ma - Rui crude oil is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is high [1] Natural Rubber - The raw - material cost has strong support, the basis is at a low level, and the middle - stream inventory may tend to accumulate [1] BR Rubber - The futures positions have decreased, and the price increase has slowed down. The listing prices of BD/BR have shifted up, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber has gradually recovered. Butadiene rubber maintains high - operation and high - inventory operation, and the spot trading has weakened with general order demand [1] PTA - The PX price is strong, and the floating spread has strengthened. The PTA plants generally maintain a high - load operation, and PX consumption remains stable. Polyester pre - holiday stock - building and sales have improved. The new polyester plants' commissioning has pushed the polyester load to a high level, and PTA consumption remains high [1] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - It is reported that two MEG plants in Taiwan, China, with a total annual capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to shut down next month due to poor efficiency. During the continuous decline of ethylene glycol, it rebounded rapidly due to supply - side news. Currently, the downstream operation rate of polyester remains above 91%, the demand performance slightly exceeds expectations, and the recent overall polyester sales are relatively high [1] Short - Fiber - The short - fiber price continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations [1] Styrene - The Asian styrene price rebounded briefly after continuous monthly declines, mainly driven by supply - side contraction. Many plants have reduced production or shut down due to maintenance or poor economics. The demand for polymer downstream products such as PS and ABS remains weak. The warming of the commodity - market sentiment has significantly boosted the styrene futures price [1] Urea - The export sentiment has eased slightly, and the limited domestic demand restricts the upside space. There is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1] PE - There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is high, and the supply pressure is large. The downstream improvement is less than expected. The propylene monomer price is high, the crude - oil price has risen, and the cost support is strong. There is a risk of oil - price increase due to the US - Venezuela conflict [1] PVC - In 2026, there will be less global new production, and the future expectation is optimistic. There will be fewer subsequent maintenance activities, new production capacity will be released, and the supply pressure will increase. The demand has weakened, and orders are poor [1] LPG - The January CP has risen more than expected, providing strong cost - side support for imported gas. The geopolitical conflicts between the US and Venezuela and in the Middle East have intensified, and the short - term risk premium has increased. The EIA weekly C3 inventory has continued to accumulate, and overseas demand has slowed down periodically. Domestic PDH maintains high - operation and deep - loss operation, with only the rigid demand for civil combustion, and there is overseas olefin - blending demand for oil [1] Group 9: Shipping Container Shipping (European Route) - The price increase in December did not meet expectations, the expectation of peak - season price increase was priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in December was relatively loose [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market sentiment and liquidity are in a good state, with the stock index breaking through the previous shock range and expected to remain strong in the short - term. The bond futures are affected by asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks. Different commodities in various industries show different trends based on their own fundamentals and macro - factors [1]. 3. Summary by Industry Categories Equity and Bond Markets - **Stock Index**: The stock index continued to rise yesterday, with increased trading volume. It has broken through the previous shock range and is expected to maintain a strong upward trend in the short - term [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has warned of interest - rate risks in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The industrial situation is weak recently, but the macro sentiment is positive, so the copper price remains strong [1]. - **Aluminum**: There has been inventory accumulation of domestic electrolytic aluminum recently, with limited industrial drivers. However, due to positive macro sentiment, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. - **Alumina**: The National Development and Reform Commission has proposed to strengthen management and optimize the layout of resource - constrained industries such as alumina and copper smelting. Alumina has rebounded from an oversold position, and the policy's sustainability should be monitored [1]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. With the improvement of market risk appetite, the zinc price is expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. - **Nickel**: The macro sentiment has warmed up. Indonesia's nickel ore premium in December remained stable. The planned RKAB nickel ore production in 2026 is expected to be reduced to 2.5 billion tons (a year - on - year decrease of 34%), and nickel - associated minerals will be priced. The global nickel inventory is still at a high level. The Shanghai nickel has rebounded significantly recently, and the short - term nickel price may be strong. In the long - term, the primary nickel market will remain in an oversupply situation [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: The market sentiment is high. Silver has accelerated its upward movement, and gold has risen steadily. The gold - silver ratio has fallen to the lowest level since 2013. The short - term precious metal prices are expected to remain strong, but there is a risk of sharp fluctuations in silver [1]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The prices of platinum and palladium in the overseas market rose significantly last Friday, which is expected to drive up the domestic prices. However, the domestic futures prices of platinum and palladium have a large premium over the spot and overseas prices, so investors are advised to participate rationally [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: A capacity storage platform company has been established, with a medium - to - long - term expectation of capacity reduction. The terminal installation has increased marginally in the fourth quarter. Large enterprises have a strong willingness to support prices and a low willingness to deliver goods. The short - term speculative sentiment is high [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, and the energy storage demand is strong. The supply side has increased production, and the price has accelerated its rise in the short - term [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The basis of the futures - spot spread and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contracts still have upward potential [1]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The direct demand has weakened, the supply is high, and the downstream is under pressure, so the prices are under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After the official announcement of the steel export licensing system, the coking coal and coke prices rebounded quickly after opening lower, showing signs of stabilization. Attention should be paid to the spot situation this week and whether downstream enterprises will start winter storage [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The high - frequency data has improved, but it is difficult to change the expectation of a loose supply in the production areas. Rebound short - selling is recommended [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The export of US soybeans is weak, and there is no obvious speculation driver in South American weather. The Brazilian premium is expected to be under pressure. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak, showing a pattern of strong near - month and weak far - month contracts [1]. - **Corn**: The progress of farmers' grain sales at the grass - roots level is relatively fast, and the inventory levels of ports and downstream are still low. Most traders have not started strategic inventory building. The futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly under the restocking demand of the middle and lower reaches [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is in an oversupply situation, and the domestic new - crop supply has increased. There is a strong consensus among short - sellers. If the futures price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short - term fundamentals [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. There is uncertainty about the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and the US has imposed sanctions on Venezuelan crude oil exports [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: It is affected by the same factors as crude oil, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following the trend of crude oil [1]. - **Asphalt**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following the trend of crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan construction is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The asphalt profit is high [1]. - **LPG**: The geopolitical and tariff situation has eased, and the international oil and gas market has returned to the logic of a fundamentally loose supply. The CP/FEI has recently rebounded. The domestic C3/C4 production and sales are smooth, and the inventory has no pressure. The PG futures price has maintained a range - bound movement after a supplementary decline [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Carbonate Lithium, BR Rubber, PTA [1] - **Bearish**: Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Sugar [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Gold, Platinum, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferroalloy, Glass, Coke, Coking Coal, Lumber, Cotton, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Bitumen, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Benzene, Naphtha, Propylene, Butadiene, Container Shipping to Europe [1][2] Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment and liquidity are in a good state, with the short - term stock index breaking through the previous oscillation range and expected to remain strong. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks. The prices of various commodities are affected by factors such as industry fundamentals, macro - sentiment, and policy changes [1]. Summaries by Categories Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The short - term stock index has broken through the previous oscillation range and is expected to remain strong as the market sentiment and liquidity are good [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank has warned of short - term interest - rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The industrial situation is weak recently, and the macro - sentiment is fluctuating, leading to high - level oscillations in copper prices [1]. - **Aluminum**: The driving force in the electrolytic aluminum industry is limited, and the macro - sentiment is fluctuating, resulting in oscillating aluminum prices [1]. - **Alumina**: The domestic fundamentals are weak, and the short - term price remains low [1]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, with the cost center rising. Most of the recent negative factors have been realized, and the zinc price is expected to oscillate strongly as market risk appetite improves [1]. - **Nickel**: The global nickel inventory is high, but due to supply concerns, the Shanghai nickel has rebounded significantly recently. The Indonesian policy has not been implemented but is difficult to disprove in the short term. The short - term nickel price may oscillate strongly. In the long - term, the primary nickel market remains in an oversupply situation [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The raw material nickel - iron price has stabilized, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and steel mills have increased production cuts in December. The stainless - steel futures are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [1]. - **Tin**: The non - ferrous tin industry association has issued an initiative, causing the short - term tin price to oscillate weakly. Considering the tense situation in Congo and the improved market risk appetite, low - buying opportunities are recommended [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Gold**: Overseas markets are in the Christmas holiday, and the strong US economic data has weakened the expectation of interest - rate cuts. After reaching a new historical high, the gold price may oscillate at a high level in the short term [1]. - **Platinum**: The domestic platinum futures price has a large premium over the spot price and foreign markets, with large expected fluctuations. Rational participation is recommended [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production in the northwest has increased while that in the southwest has decreased. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon have decreased in December [1]. - **Polysilicon**: A capacity storage platform company has been established, with a long - term expectation of capacity reduction. The terminal installation has increased marginally in the fourth quarter, large manufacturers are eager to maintain prices but reluctant to deliver goods, and the short - term speculative sentiment is high [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, the energy - storage demand is strong, the supply side has increased production resumption, and the price has exceeded the previous high. Short - term long - position operations are recommended [1]. Building Materials - **Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil**: The basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high. Short - selling is not recommended. The near - term contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the far - term contracts still have upward potential [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The near - term contracts are restricted by production cuts, but with good commodity sentiment, the far - term contracts have upward opportunities [1]. - **Glass and Glass Products**: They follow the trend of glass, with acceptable supply - demand conditions and low valuation. The downward space is limited, and they may oscillate under pressure [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Affected by the domestic major meeting and export policy, the black - sector has declined. After the announcement of the steel - export licensing system, there are signs of stabilization. Attention should be paid to the spot situation this week and the winter - storage replenishment by downstream enterprises [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Although the high - frequency data has improved, it is difficult to change the expectation of a loose supply in the producing areas. Rebound - shorting is recommended [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: It is affected by the decline in the CBOT market and other domestic oils, showing a weak trend [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The short - term positive factors of raw - material shortage are expected to be exhausted, and there is an expectation of a good harvest in the global main producing areas. Short - selling the 05 contract is recommended [1]. - **Cotton**: There is support from the purchase price of seed cotton, but there is currently no driving force. Future attention should be paid to the government's policies, planting - area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak - season demand [1]. - **Sugar**: There is a consensus among short - sellers due to the global surplus and increased domestic supply. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous fundamental driving force in the short term [1]. - **Live Pigs**: Affected by snow and rain in the producing areas, the supply is affected, but the spot price is relatively stable. Farmers are reluctant to sell, and downstream enterprises are cautious. There is a certain replenishment demand before the Spring Festival [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: There is an expectation of a good harvest of soybeans, and the later discount is expected to face selling pressure. Recently, the market has oscillated following reserve - related rumors [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The futures are fluctuating due to the contradiction between weak demand and strong supply expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side operations and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread for the spread [1]. - **Logs**: Affected by the decline in foreign - market quotes and spot prices, the 01 contract is under pressure as it approaches the delivery month and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement has an impact, and the US has imposed sanctions on Venezuelan crude - oil exports [1]. - **Bitumen**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following the trend of crude oil. The cost of raw materials provides strong support, the futures - spot price difference is low, and the mid - stream inventory may start to accumulate [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The trading volume of butadiene has improved, the cost has increased, the operating rate of butadiene rubber is high, and there are rumors of a factory shutdown in South Korea, leading to a strong market sentiment [1]. - **PTA**: The PX price is strong, the PTA device is operating at a high load, the pre - festival stocking and sales of polyester have improved, and the consumption of PTA remains high [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Two MEG plants in Taiwan, China, are planned to shut down next month. The ethylene - glycol price has rebounded rapidly due to supply - side news, and the demand from the polyester downstream is better than expected [1]. - **Benzene and Naphtha**: There is some support from the cost side, the spot - market sentiment has warmed up slightly, and the total inventory remains high without significant de - stocking [1]. - **Propylene**: The export sentiment has eased slightly, the upward space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand, and there is support from anti - involution and the cost side. The maintenance has decreased, the supply has increased, and the downstream demand has weakened. There is an expectation of oversupply in 2026 [2]. - **Butadiene**: The trading volume has improved, and the cost has increased, providing support for downstream products [1]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The price increase in December was lower than expected, the expectation of price increase in the peak season was priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply was relatively loose in December [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Carbonate Lithium, BR Rubber [1] - Bearish: Palm Oil, Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Neutral (Oscillating): Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Gold, Platinum, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferroalloy, Glass, Coke, Coking Coal, Cotton, Sugar, Piglets, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Bitumen, MEG, Short - Fiber, Styrene, Propylene, Butadiene, Ethylene, Propylene Oxide, Chlor - Alkali, LPG, Container Shipping to Europe [1][2] Core Views - The stock index is expected to remain strong in the short - term after breaking through the previous shock range, while the bond futures are affected by asset shortage and weak economy but face interest - rate risks in the short - term [1]. - Metal prices are mainly affected by macro - sentiment, industrial fundamentals, and policy factors. For example, nickel and stainless - steel prices are influenced by Indonesian policies, and tin prices are affected by industry initiatives and geopolitical situations [1]. - In the energy and chemical sector, factors such as OPEC+ policies, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes affect prices. For instance, BR rubber is supported by cost and market sentiment, and PTA benefits from strong PX prices and high polyester consumption [1]. - Agricultural product prices are affected by factors such as production expectations, supply - demand relationships, and weather conditions. For example, palm oil has a bearish outlook due to supply expectations, and cotton is in a state of "supported but no drive" [1]. Summary by Categories Stock Index and Bonds - Stock Index: The market sentiment and liquidity are in good condition. The index broke through the previous shock range and is expected to remain strong in the short - term [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank has warned of interest - rate risks in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Metals - Copper: The industrial situation is weak, and the macro - sentiment is volatile, resulting in high - level oscillations [1]. - Aluminum: The driving force in the electrolytic aluminum industry is limited, and the macro - sentiment is volatile, leading to price oscillations [1]. - Alumina: The domestic fundamentals are weak, and the price remains low in the short - term [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, and the negative factors have basically been realized. The price is expected to oscillate strongly as market risk appetite improves [1]. - Nickel: Global nickel inventory is high, but supply concerns have led to a recent sharp rebound in Shanghai nickel. The Indonesian policy has not been implemented but is difficult to disprove. The price may oscillate strongly in the short - term, and the long - term supply of primary nickel is in surplus [1]. - Stainless Steel: The raw material price has stabilized, the social inventory has decreased slightly, and steel mills have increased production cuts in December. The futures price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [1]. - Tin: Affected by the industry initiative, the price oscillates weakly in the short - term. Considering the tense situation in Congo - Kinshasa and the improved market risk appetite, low - buying opportunities are recommended [1]. - Gold: After reaching a record high, it may oscillate at a high level in the short - term due to strong US economic data and weakened interest - rate cut expectations [1]. - Platinum: The domestic futures price has a large premium over the spot and foreign markets, and the market is expected to be volatile. Rational participation is recommended [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Affected by OPEC+ policies, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuela, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [1]. - Bitumen: It follows crude oil in the short - term. The supply of Marey crude oil is sufficient, and the profit is relatively high [1]. - BR Rubber: The transaction has improved, the cost has increased, and the market sentiment is strong due to rumors of a factory shutdown [1]. - PTA: The PX price is strong, the PTA device operates at a high load, and the polyester consumption is high [1]. - MEG: Supply - side news has stimulated a rebound, and the polyester downstream demand is better than expected [1]. - Styrene: The cost has some support, the market sentiment has improved slightly, but the inventory is high [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: High - frequency data has improved, but the supply in the producing areas is expected to be loose. Rebound selling is recommended [1]. - Cotton: It is currently in a state of "supported but no drive". Attention should be paid to policies, planting intentions, and weather conditions in the future [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and an increase in domestic supply. The short - term fundamentals lack continuous drive [1]. - Piglets: Affected by weather and supply - demand relationships, the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with limited decline [1]. - Soybean Meal: There is a risk of selling pressure due to high - yield expectations, and the price is affected by reserve rumors [1]. - Pulp: Affected by weak demand and strong supply expectations, unilateral investment is recommended to be on the sidelines, and 1 - 5 reverse spreads can be considered [1]. - Logs: Affected by external quotes and spot price declines, the 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - Live Pigs: The supply is yet to be fully released, and the price is affected by demand support and inventory [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: BR rubber [1] - Bearish: Industrial silicon, palm oil [1] - Neutral: Iron ore, silicon iron, glass, etc. [1] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the stock index is expected to continue its weak trend, but the adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of the stock index next year, providing a layout window [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - The market sentiment has been volatile recently, with significant price fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the opportunities for low - level long positions [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Equity and Bond Markets - **Stock Index**: Short - term weak operation, long - term upward potential after adjustment. Investors can gradually establish long positions during the adjustment phase and use the discount structure of stock - index futures to optimize investment costs and win - rates [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Commodity Markets Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum**: The industry has limited industrial drivers, with aluminum prices fluctuating widely at high levels. The production and inventory of domestic alumina continue to increase, with a weak fundamental pattern. Although there is a short - term price rebound, the upward drive is limited [1]. - **Zinc**: The short - term macro - positive factors have been digested, the fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. However, the zinc price is under pressure, and attention should be paid to low - level long opportunities [1]. - **Nickel**: The global nickel inventory is still at a high level. The Shanghai nickel has been oscillating after a decline with increasing positions. If the macro - situation improves or supply - side disturbances increase, there will be a demand for position reduction and repair. Short - term operations are recommended, and the long - term supply of primary nickel will remain in surplus [1]. Black Metals - **Steel Products**: The black sector has declined due to various factors, but coal and coke have shown signs of stabilization after the announcement of the steel export licensing system. Attention should be paid to the spot situation this week and whether downstream enterprises will start winter - storage replenishment [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They have shown signs of stabilization after the "bad news is out". Attention should be paid to the spot situation and downstream winter - storage replenishment [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: It is bearish. The USDA report has no highlights, and attention should be paid to the impact of imported soybean auctions on supply [1]. - **Cotton**: The domestic new - crop cotton has a strong production expectation, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and attention should be paid to relevant policies and market conditions in the future [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply has increased. There is a strong consensus among short - sellers. If the price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous drivers [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. The uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact on the market [1]. - **BR Rubber**: It is bullish. The成交 of butadiene has improved, the cost has increased, and the market sentiment is strong [1]. - **PTA**: The PX price is strong, the PTA device is operating at a high load, and the consumption of PTA remains high [1]. Shipping Market - **Container Shipping on European Routes**: The price increase in December was lower than expected, the peak - season price - increase expectation was priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in December was relatively loose [1].