Group 1: Report Core View - This week, domestic financial data declined due to seasonal factors, but the market didn't focus on it. The personal consumer loan interest - subsidy policy had limited impact. The main market drivers were news - related, like the shutdown of CATL's important lithium mine boosting the ChiNext and Sino - US chip competition strengthening domestic substitution expectations and driving up the STAR Market. The Shanghai - Shenzhen Composite Index and STAR Market Index led the gains among core indices [2]. - Overseas, the Stockholm economic and trade talks between China and the US postponed reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures for 90 days, having a small impact on the market. The US July CPI was lower than expected, while the PPI exceeded expectations, causing repeated expectations of a September interest rate cut in the US, large fluctuations in the US dollar index, and increased disturbances to global assets [2]. - Leveraged funds continued to flow in this week, with the margin trading balance exceeding 2 trillion on Monday and then having a net inflow of over 40 billion. The market trading volume increased rapidly, with the total A - share trading volume exceeding 2 trillion for three consecutive days. The market divergence widened, and the excess returns of heavy - weight stocks relative to the index were significant. The performance of individual stocks was far inferior to the prosperity shown by the index. The Shanghai Composite Index repeatedly touched the key level of 3,700 points and then fell back, losing the 3,700 - point level again at the end - of - day call auction on Friday [2]. - Large - cap sectors were still dragged down by sectors such as banks and coal. The Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 had small gains, while small - and medium - cap stocks performed better. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 rose nearly 4%, and micro - cap stocks fell continuously, significantly underperforming small - and medium - cap stocks [2]. - In terms of basis, the annualized basis of each variety strengthened significantly. IF returned to a premium state, and the annualized discounts of IC and IM converged from 10% to around 7%, moving out of the historical bottom range. As the basis strengthened, the near - month contracts in the term structure rose significantly. After the August contracts expired, the September contracts had obvious hedging cost advantages. The September contracts of IH and IF had large premiums, providing large profit margins for cash - and - carry arbitrage. Meanwhile, the inter - term spread increased significantly this week, and the inter - term reverse arbitrage had realized considerable returns, with the strategy's cost - effectiveness further declining [2]. Group 2: Weekly Forecast Conclusion - The model's judgment on the movement directions of the bases of IH, IF, IC, and IM next week is: strengthening, weakening, strengthening, and weakening respectively [3] Group 3: Recent Forecast Conclusion - There are historical data on the real basis changes and predicted basis changes of IH, IF, IC, and IM, but no specific conclusions are clearly summarized from the data presented [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On the 30th, the prices of glass and soda ash rose and then fell [2]. - The recent significant price fluctuations of glass and soda ash are the result of intense industry - capital games. The previous upward movement was mainly affected by their own supply disruptions and coal supply disruption expectations. The market has been trading on the anti - involution logic, with strong bullish sentiment in commodities, and the futures prices of glass and soda ash have risen significantly due to supply and cost increases [2]. - In the short term, glass and soda ash are still affected by market sentiment, with intense capital games. The fundamentals are still not ideal, and the near - month contracts may face delivery pressure as their spot attributes increase. However, under strong expectations, the prices are likely to be pushed up by capital. Industrial customers can focus on spot - futures positive arbitrage, and investment customers can focus on long positions in far - month contracts [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Price Information | Contract | 1 - month | 5 - month | 9 - month | 1 - month | 5 - month (Soda Ash) | 9 - month (Soda Ash) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Closing Price | 1320 | 1388 | 1191 | 1394 | 1452 | 1311 | | Change | 7 | 20 | 3.04 | - 13 | 5 | - 7 | | Change Percentage | 0.53% | 1.46% | 0.25% | - 0.92% | 0.35% | - 0.53% | | Spread Closing Price (e.g., 5 - 9 month) | - 68 | 197 | - 129 | - 58 | 141 | - 83 | | Spread Change | - 13 | 17 | - 4 | - 18 | 2 | 6 | [1] Spot Price Information | Region | Spot Price (Glass) | Spot Price (Soda Ash) | | --- | --- | --- | | East China | 1250 | 1400 | | South | 1320 | - | | Northwest | 1020 | - | | - | - | 1350 | [1] Basis Information | Region | Glass Basis | Soda Ash Basis | | --- | --- | --- | | - | 59 | 89 | | East China | 119 | 39 | | South | 129 | - | | Northwest | - 291 | - | [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Lithium carbonate, PTA, Ethylene glycol, PP, PVC [1][2] - **Bearish**: Alumina, Nickel, Stainless steel, Tin, Coke, Corn (C01), PVC, Caustic soda, LPG [1][2] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index futures, Bond futures, Gold, Silver, Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Manganese silicon, Silicon iron, Glass, Soda ash, Palm oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn (C09), Soybean meal (MO9), Pulp, Logs, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Asphalt, Natural rubber, BR rubber, Urea, PE [1][2] 2. Core Views of the Report - The market requires new themes and bullish sentiment to drive it after continuous strong rallies. The short - term upward speed of stock index futures may slow down. Attention should be paid to the July Politburo meeting communique, the third round of China - US trade consultations, and the Fed's interest - rate decisions. [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning on interest - rate risks suppresses the upside space. [1] - Although the outlook for tariff progress is positive, market uncertainties remain, and with the Fed's expected interest rate cut in September, gold prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. [1] 3. Summary by Categories Macro - financial - **Stock index futures**: After continuous rallies, the short - term upward speed may slow down. Adjustment and long - position building are the main strategies. Pay attention to the July Politburo meeting communique and the third round of China - US trade consultations. [1] - **Bond futures**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank's short - term warning on interest - rate risks suppresses the upside space. [1] Precious metals - **Gold**: Despite positive tariff progress expectations, market uncertainties and the Fed's possible September interest - rate cut keep the price oscillating in the short term. [1] - **Silver**: It may return to the fundamental logic and oscillate. [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Short - term market sentiment is optimistic, but high prices suppress downstream demand, so the price may oscillate. [1] - **Aluminum**: Rising electrolytic aluminum prices suppress downstream demand, and the price may oscillate weakly. [1] - **Nickel**: Short - term prices are macro - dominated and widely oscillating. There is a long - term surplus pressure on primary nickel. It is advisable to wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities at high prices. [1] - **Stainless steel**: Futures are macro - dominated in the short term. Wait and see, look for short - selling opportunities at high prices and cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities. [1] - **Tin**: It returns to fundamental trading in the short term, with limited driving forces due to weak supply and demand. [1] Industrial metals - **Steel products (e.g., rebar, hot - rolled coil)**: Market sentiment cools, and capital behavior may cause large fluctuations. [1] - **Iron ore**: Market sentiment recedes, and prices fluctuate sharply. [1] - **Manganese silicon, silicon iron**: Market sentiment recedes, and prices fluctuate sharply. [1] Chemicals - **PTA**: Supply contracts, but crude oil prices are strong. Polyester downstream load remains high, and there is a slight inventory reduction at ports. [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: Coal prices rise slightly, commodity sentiment is strong, overseas device maintenance is extended, and supply contracts. [1] - **Benzene ethylene**: Pure benzene prices fall slightly, device load rises, and the basis weakens significantly. [1] - **Urea**: Supply contraction is expected, and domestic demand enters the off - season. [1] - **PE**: Macro sentiment fades, returning to fundamentals. There are many maintenance activities, and demand is mainly for rigid needs, with prices oscillating weakly. [1] - **PP**: Maintenance support is limited, orders are for rigid needs, and the "anti - involution" sentiment drives the price to oscillate strongly. [1] - **PVC**: Macro sentiment fades, returning to fundamentals. Maintenance decreases, downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and supply pressure rises. [2] - **Caustic soda**: Maintenance is nearly over, spot prices are at a low level, and the premium of delivery substitutes increases. [2] - **LPG**: Crude oil support is insufficient, international fundamentals are loose, port propane inventory is high, and it is in the seasonal off - season for combustion demand. [2] Agricultural products - **Palm oil**: The good rate of US soybeans is lowered, policies are negative for feed raw materials, and funds tend to be long on oil and short on meal. It is short - term strong, and the previous high pressure should be observed. [1] - **Cotton**: The near - month contract is driven by short - squeeze logic, and the upside of the 01 contract is limited. Pay attention to the time window from late July to early August and the release of sliding - scale tariff quotas. [1] - **Sugar**: It is running strongly, driven by the rebound of raw sugar and peak - season demand, but the upside is limited. Pay attention to the 5600 - 6000 range. [1] - **Corn**: The old - crop supply - demand is tightening, supporting the C09 contract, but the short - term market has sufficient grain circulation. The new - crop planting cost is lower, and the C01 contract is over - valued. It is advisable to short C01 at high prices. [1] - **Soybean meal**: The near - month contract is in the inventory - building cycle, and the basis is under pressure. The MO9 contract is expected to oscillate, and the MO1 contract can be bought on dips based on the expected increase in import costs. [1] - **Paper pulp**: It has rebounded significantly due to the strong commodity sentiment. The basis of broad - leaf pulp has weakened to - 1400 yuan/ton, and further chasing of long positions is not recommended. [1] - **Log futures**: Affected by the macro environment, it is likely to decline on Monday after many commodities fell on Friday night. [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upward momentum of iron element futures prices slowed down on Wednesday, with a cooling of both spot volume and prices, while coking coal and coke remained strong. The market may enter a stage of differentiation among varieties, but it's uncertain if the peak inflection point has been reached [2][3]. - For steel, the sentiment has slightly cooled. The 10 - contract rebar on the futures surface is relatively weaker, and the unilateral black - series may experience increased volatility. The key to the market lies in capital drive and sentiment fluctuations in the futures market [3]. - For coking coal and coke, coking coal closed at the daily limit, and the third round of coke price increases is expected to be quickly implemented. The market is in an accelerated bull phase, and future capital games and exchange interventions may be important influencing factors [3]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the anti - involution logic continues, and the prices of the two silicons are running strongly due to supply reduction and potential cost support [3]. - For iron ore, the market is in an adjustment stage. The upward pressure is obvious, and although the "anti - involution" trading sentiment continues, it's not recommended to short on the left side. It's necessary to wait and see if demand can keep up during the peak season [3]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs [Steel] - The sentiment has slightly cooled. The 10 - contract rebar is relatively weaker, which is related to the rapid increase in the volume of rebar futures warehouse receipts, suppressing the valuation of the near - month contract rebar. The unilateral black - series may have increased volatility, and it can be observed whether there is support when stepping back on the moving average. The focus is on the change in steel production this week. If demand remains resilient and can continue to absorb increased supply, it will support the strong pattern of furnace materials [3]. [Coking Coal and Coke] - On the spot side, the third round of coke price increases is expected to be quickly implemented, and the coking coal spot auction sentiment is booming with significantly increased transaction prices. On the futures side, the market sentiment is still high, with coking coal closing at the daily limit. The main influencing factors in the future may be capital games and exchange interventions. The market attaches great importance to the signal of the energy bureau's verification of coal mine over - production, which is considered a shift in the previous loose coal production policy. Fundamentally, the black industry data is good, with slow resumption of domestic coal mines, rapid de - stocking upstream, and active restocking downstream. The coking coal warehouse receipt cost is around 1100 - 1200 yuan, and the Australian coal import window has opened. The multi - head market is in an accelerated stage, and investors are advised to manage risks, avoid short - selling, and those not yet in the market should wait and see [3]. [Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese] - The anti - involution logic continues, and the prices of the two silicons are running strongly due to the supply reduction under this logic. The national energy bureau's verification of coal over - production has heated up the market sentiment. Although the decline in coal prices has lowered the cost support for the two silicons, if coal supply is disrupted, their cost will be strongly supported. Despite the weak fundamentals, the prices are likely to rise under strong market expectations [3]. [Iron Ore] - The market is in an adjustment stage. With the energy bureau's verification of coal production, the commodity index has risen, and coking coal has reached the daily limit, while iron ore feels significant upward pressure and needs short - term adjustment. The "anti - involution" trading sentiment continues, and it's not recommended to short on the left side. Steel mill profits remain high, and the daily average molten iron output in July is expected to remain at a high level of around 240. Multiple varieties have entered the futures - spot market, driving the spot to follow the futures up. It's necessary to wait and see if demand can keep up during the peak season before considering short - selling [3].

Report Overview - Report Title: "Demand Resilience Exceeds Expectations, Alloy Has Support Below" [1] - Author: Zhou Tao from Galaxy Futures' Commodity Research Institute [1] - Occupation Certificate Number: Futures Practitioner Certificate No. F03134259, Investment Consulting Certificate No. Z0021009 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The demand resilience of alloys exceeds expectations, providing support for alloy prices, but it's not advisable to chase the rising prices due to increasing hedging pressure from more manufacturers resuming production [3][4] - Suggested trading strategies include going long on ferrosilicon and short on silicomanganese, conducting cash-and-carry arbitrage when the basis is low, and selling straddle options at high prices [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - **Ferrosilicon**: Supply has a slight rebound, and some manufacturers have expectations of further resuming production as prices rebound; although downstream steel enters the off - season, demand shows resilience with stable apparent demand of five major steel products and a significant increase in the molten iron output of 247 steel mills this week, supporting the demand for alloys; cost performance varies, with electricity prices decreasing in Gansu and Qinghai and slightly increasing in Ningxia [3] - **Silicomanganese**: Supply also has a slight rebound and remains at a low level; this week, the apparent demand and output of rebar both declined, suppressing the demand for silicomanganese, but overall crude steel output remains high, so demand still has resilience; port manganese ore spot prices have been stable and slightly strong recently, and overseas mines' August quotes are generally stable with a slight increase [3] 3.1.2 Strategies - **Unilateral**: Demand resilience supports prices, but avoid chasing rising prices [4] - **Arbitrage**: Go long on ferrosilicon and short on silicomanganese; conduct cash-and-carry arbitrage when the basis is low [4] - **Options**: Sell straddle options at high prices [4] 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - Not provided in the content 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Supply and Demand Data Tracking - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills is 242.44 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.63 tons; the weekly demand for ferrosilicon of five major steel types (about 70% of the total demand) is 20,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 200 tons; the weekly demand for silicomanganese of five major steel types (70%) is 123,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,500 tons [7] - **Supply**: The operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises is 32.45%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25%; the national ferrosilicon output (weekly supply) is 100,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,300 tons; the operating rate of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises is 40.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02%; the national silicomanganese output (99% of weekly supply) is 182,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 600 tons [8] - **Inventory**: As of the week of July 18, the national inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises is 63,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,700 tons; the national inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises (accounting for 79.77% of national production capacity) is 216,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4,500 tons [9] 3.3.2 Spot Price - Basis - Includes price and basis data of Inner Mongolia silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 and Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon 72%FeSi over multiple years [12] 3.3.3 Production Situation of Double - Silicon Enterprises - Shows the weekly output and operating rate data of domestic ferrosilicon and silicomanganese enterprises over multiple years [16] 3.3.4 Steel Mill Production Situation - Covers data such as the blast furnace capacity utilization rate, weekly steel output, profitability rate, social steel inventory, and daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills over multiple years [22] 3.3.5 Silicomanganese Cost and Profit - On July 17, 2025, different regions have different production costs and profits for silicomanganese, with losses in all regions. Inner Mongolia has a production cost of 5,691 yuan/ton and a profit of - 91 yuan/ton; Ningxia has a production cost of 5,711 yuan/ton and a profit of - 111 yuan/ton; etc. [23] 3.3.6 Cost - Manganese Ore Price - Displays the price data of South African - produced Mn36.5% semi - carbonate manganese lumps at Tianjin Port, South African South32 semi - carbonate manganese lumps' CIF shipping quotes, and other manganese ore prices over multiple years [31] 3.3.7 Ferrosilicon Cost and Profit - On July 17, 2025, different regions have different production costs and profits for ferrosilicon, all showing losses. Inner Mongolia has a production cost of 5,415 yuan/ton and a profit of - 165 yuan/ton; Ningxia has a production cost of 5,268 yuan/ton and a profit of - 68 yuan/ton; etc. [32] 3.3.8 Cost - Carbon Element and Electricity Price - Includes price data of Fugu blue carbon small materials, Yulin steam coal lump coal, Ningxia chemical coke, and regional electricity prices over multiple years [39][42] 3.3.9 Double - Silicon Steel Tendering Prices of Hebei Representative Steel Mills - Shows the monthly procurement price data of Hebei Iron and Steel Group for ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B and silicomanganese 6517 over multiple years [45] 3.3.10 Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon Supply - Monthly Output - Displays the cumulative and monthly output data of domestic silicomanganese and ferrosilicon over multiple years [48][51] 3.3.11 Manganese Ore and Ferrosilicon Import and Export - Presents the monthly net import volume of manganese ore and the monthly net export volume of ferrosilicon in China over multiple years [56] 3.3.12 Magnesium Metal Demand - Includes the price data of Fugu magnesium metal Mg99.9% and the cumulative output data of magnesium metal in Yulin, Shaanxi over multiple years [57] 3.3.13 Alloy Factory vs Steel Mill Ferrosilicon Inventory - Shows the ferrosilicon inventory of alloy factories, the regional breakdown of alloy factory ferrosilicon inventory, the available days of steel mill ferrosilicon inventory, and the regional breakdown of steel mill ferrosilicon inventory available days over multiple years [59] 3.3.14 Alloy Factory, Steel Mill, and Port Manganese Ore Inventory - Covers the available days of steel mill silicomanganese inventory, the regional breakdown of steel mill silicomanganese inventory available days, the total manganese ore inventory at Tianjin Port, and the silicomanganese inventory of alloy factories over multiple years [61]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is experiencing a gradual recovery in production capacity, with an increase in both raw coal and coking coal output, although the pace of recovery remains slow due to various factors such as safety inspections and seasonal demand fluctuations [1][2]. Group 1: Production and Supply - The capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines has increased to 86.1%, with a daily average raw coal output rising by 11,000 tons to 1,929,000 tons, and a daily average coking coal output increasing by 5,000 tons to 770,000 tons, both reaching an 8-week high [1]. - Domestic coal is in a recovery phase, but the pace is slow, particularly for Mongolian coal, which faced a temporary closure due to the Nadam Festival from July 11 to July 15, with resumption of operations on July 16 [2]. - The overall supply of coking coal remains tight, with smooth coal mine shipments and a phenomenon of oversold pre-sales [2]. Group 2: Pricing and Demand - Recent auction results for coking coal in Inner Mongolia show significant price increases, with high ash low sulfur coal (A15S0.8) selling for 910 CNY/ton, up 120 CNY/ton from the previous auction [1]. - The demand from downstream steel companies is high, with increased inventory replenishment, and the overall market is expected to maintain a tight balance between supply and demand in the short term [2]. - The coal market is anticipated to experience price fluctuations, with a focus on the ongoing recovery of Mongolian coal and the potential for supply disruptions in August [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the recent rebound in steel prices, particularly hot-rolled coil prices, is driven by improved macroeconomic expectations, better-than-expected supply-demand dynamics, and strong performance in raw material prices [1][2][8] - As of July 11, the price of hot-rolled coil main contract reached 3273 yuan/ton, an increase of 221 yuan/ton or 7.24% from the low point in early June [1] - The rebound in steel prices is supported by a positive outlook on macroeconomic conditions, including easing trade tensions between China and the U.S. and expectations for policy support in urban renewal [2][3] Group 2 - The supply-demand dynamics for hot-rolled coils have improved, with significant growth in the automotive and machinery sectors, leading to a positive consumption trend for hot-rolled coils [2] - The prices of coking coal and iron ore have remained strong, providing cost support for steel prices [2] - The manufacturing and export sectors, which are key consumers of hot-rolled coils, may face marginal weakening risks in the second half of the year, potentially impacting demand [4][6] Group 3 - The article highlights that the macroeconomic outlook is expected to continue improving, with potential for synchronized monetary easing between China and the U.S. [3][8] - The manufacturing sector's investment resilience is supported by policies promoting equipment upgrades, although the effectiveness of these policies may diminish in the second half of the year [5][6] - The price gap between cold-rolled and hot-rolled coils has narrowed, indicating weakening downstream demand [6] Group 4 - The current rebound in steel prices is characterized by strong speculative expectations, with the hot-rolled coil main contract price aligning closely with spot prices, creating arbitrage opportunities for traders [7] - There is a risk of a second price dip in late August to September due to potential policy impacts and weaker-than-expected demand recovery [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the coking coal and coke markets, including market logic, trading strategies, and fundamental factors. It also offers important industry news and policy updates [3][4][5]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Trading Strategies and Spot-Futures Market Conditions - **Trading Strategies**: For coking coal, short - term small - scale long positions can be taken after it breaks through the key pressure level, and risk - averse investors can wait for a pull - back to replenish long positions. For coke, long positions can be continued on a single - side basis with proper position control, and a spot - futures positive spread strategy should be maintained [4][5][12]. - **Domestic Prices**: In the futures market, the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1456.00, up 31.50, and the JM2509 contract of coking coal closed at 871.50, up 28.00. In the domestic spot market, prices of various grades of coke and coking coal remained stable compared to the previous day [13][14]. - **Import Prices**: The price of Mongolian 5 raw coal was 748.00 yuan/ton, up 3.00 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian 5 clean coal was 940.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The prices of imported coking coal from other regions such as Australia and Russia showed different degrees of change [17]. - **Base - spread Situation**: The base - spread data for coke and coking coal from different sources are provided, with the futures prices and corresponding converted warehouse - receipt prices presented [20]. Part 2: Fundamentals - **Supply and Demand**: The operating rate of 110 sample coal - washing plants was 63.01%, with a change of 1.11% compared to the previous period. The daily output of clean coal was 53.44 tons, with a change of 1.34 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants was 75.27%, with a change of 1.86%, and the daily output was 53.66 tons, with a change of 1.21 tons [23]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of coking coal at six ports was 304.27 tons, with a change of 18.68 tons. The coking coal inventory of coking plants was 848.18 tons, with a change of 39.20 tons, and that of steel mills was 789.60 tons, with a change of 8.39 tons. The inventory of coke at four ports was 191.12 tons, with a change of - 8.97 tons, and the coke inventory of coking plants and steel mills also showed different degrees of change [25]. Part 3: Spreads No specific numerical or descriptive content about spreads is provided, only a list of related spread charts is given [31]. Other Important Information - **Industry News**: The US Treasury Secretary believes that the market may be pricing in Trump's view on interest - rate cuts, and Trump plans to impose new tariffs on copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, etc. The Japanese Prime Minister responded to the US tariff issue. China's National Development and Reform Commission official mentioned the development of infrastructure in the "14th Five - Year Plan" period [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel spot market is stable, while the futures market shows some resistance. The "anti - involution" rebound in futures prices has limited ability to drive up spot prices, and the basis has been rapidly compressed. There is an increasing probability of administrative production - limit interference in July - August. The market's expected and confidence have improved, which may help the spot market bottom out before the peak season [4]. - The sentiment in the coking coal and coke spot market is temporarily stable. The futures market has warmed up the spot market sentiment, and there are signs of a coke price increase. However, the overall fundamentals of carbon elements are weakening as coking coal supply recovers in July. The "anti - involution" policy may lead to a reduction in demand for the black industry rather than a contraction in supply [5][7]. - The short - term driving force for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is insufficient, and prices are mainly oscillating. The supply and demand of ferrosilicon are currently acceptable, while the supply of silicomanganese is increasing, and the supply - demand structure is relatively loose [8]. - In the iron ore market, under the "anti - involution" trading sentiment, the spot price has followed the rise and the basis has rebounded. It is not recommended to short the black market in the short term. Steel mills' profits remain high, and the daily average hot metal in July is expected to remain at a high level [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - On July 8, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3083 yuan/ton (-0.10%), HC2601 at 3200 yuan/ton (-0.03%), I2601 at 707 yuan/ton (0.07%), J2601 at 1470.50 yuan/ton (0.44%), and JM2601 at 891 yuan/ton (0.62%). For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 3063 yuan/ton (-0.13%), HC2510 at 3191 yuan/ton (-0.06%), I2509 at 733 yuan/ton (0.14%), J2509 at 1424.50 yuan/ton (0.14%), and JM2509 at 843.50 yuan/ton (0.84%) [2]. - The cross - month spreads, spreads, ratios, and basis also had corresponding changes on July 8 [2]. Steel Industry - Steel spot is stable, and futures are slightly resistant. The "anti - involution" rebound has limited ability to drive up spot prices. There is a high probability of administrative production - limit interference in July - August. The market sentiment has improved, which may help the spot market bottom out before the peak season [4]. - The trading strategy is that the unilateral market turns to oscillation, and it is the time to enter the spot - futures positive arbitrage position as the basis approaches [4][10]. Coking Coal and Coke Industry - Spot sentiment is stable, with a rising voice for coke price increases. The futures market has driven the spot market to warm up. However, the overall fundamentals of carbon elements are weakening as coking coal supply recovers in July. The "anti - involution" policy may reduce demand for the black industry [5][7]. - The trading strategy is to mainly observe and control risks on the unilateral market and pay attention to whether the previous high will be broken [7]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Industry - The short - term driving force is insufficient, and prices are mainly oscillating. The supply and demand of ferrosilicon are currently acceptable, while the supply of silicomanganese is increasing, and the supply - demand structure is relatively loose [8]. - The trading strategy is to hold long - call options [10]. Iron Ore Industry - Under the "anti - involution" trading sentiment, the spot price has followed the rise and the basis has rebounded. It is not recommended to short the black market in the short term. Steel mills' profits remain high, and the daily average hot metal in July is expected to remain at a high level [9]. - The trading strategy is to mainly observe the market [9].

【钢材】周末现货跟涨动能转弱 宏观层面近期都没有太多新增的风险,导致市场情绪还行的,资金愿意入场交易risk on,短暂利好风险资产。具体到行情 上,前一周市场波动放大,"反内卷"的导火线带来资金的跟随，期现正套以及前期反套被空单可能会带来短期现货成交 投机需求的放量,但现货反馈周二周三成交尚可,周四周五现货成交蓄力是跟不上的;倾向于若短期未看到实质性政策出 台,则对利润的利好影响及成材价格的独自利好并不能持续太久。期现维度,黑色板块品种的基差远期持续收缩,焦煤、焦 炭都出现期货升水,铁矿石期货接近平水,螺纹钢的基差通过近几日的反弹再度收缩了一波,卷、螺期价重回升水,利于集 现正套以及套保头寸的主动入场。周末观察现货跟涨的动能并不强劲,现货商不追涨。现货持货意愿不强,有利润快速兑现 以及高周转,感觉仍是市场的主流思路,暂不认为黑色行情进入反转状态。 胎年金属数据日报 | 2025/07/07 | | 国贸期货出品 ITG国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | 张宇慧 | ...