Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Views - Palm oil: Short - term rebound height is limited, recommend light - position trading during the holiday [2][4]. - Soybean oil: US soybeans are in a weak oscillation, and the upside space for soybean oil is difficult to open [2][4]. - Soybean meal: Oscillating, recommend avoiding risks during the long holiday [2][13]. - Soybean: Oscillating [2][12]. - Corn: Pay attention to the listing of new grain [2][15]. - Sugar: Narrow - range consolidation [2][20]. - Cotton: Both domestic and international cotton futures are weak [2][25]. - Eggs: Light - position trading during the holiday [2][29]. - Pigs: The bottom of the spot market has not appeared [2][31]. - Peanuts: Pay attention to the weather in the producing areas [2][36]. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 9,234 yuan/ton (-0.02%), and night - session was 9,214 yuan/ton (-0.22%); soybean oil's daily - session closing price was 8,150 yuan/ton (-0.15%), and night - session was 8,120 yuan/ton (-0.37%) [5]. - **News**: Malaysian palm oil inventory is expected to decline to about 1.7 million tons by the end of the year due to seasonal production slowdown and increased exports. MPOB urges the government to increase the 2026 appropriation for oil palm replanting to 280 million ringgit [6]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil trend intensities are both - 1 [10]. Soybean and Soybean Meal - **Fundamental Data**: DCE Soybean 2511's daily - session closing price was 3938 yuan/ton (-0.05%), and night - session was 3926 yuan/ton (-0.13%); DCE Soybean Meal 2601's daily - session closing price was 2933 yuan/ton (-0.54%), and night - session was 2931 yuan/ton (-0.20%) [12]. - **News**: On September 29, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly lower due to expected high yields in the US and insufficient Chinese demand [12][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean and soybean meal trend intensities are both 0 [14]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: C2511's daily - session closing price was 2,159 yuan/ton (-0.78%), and night - session was 2,151 yuan/ton (-0.37%); C2601's daily - session closing price was 2,135 yuan/ton (-0.09%), and night - session was 2,128 yuan/ton (-0.33%) [15]. - **News**: Northern corn port - collection prices are 2220 - 2240 yuan/ton, and container port - collection prices for new grain are 2240 - 2260 yuan/ton [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn trend intensity is 0 [19]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: Raw sugar price is 15.92 cents/pound (0.09), mainstream spot price is 5830 yuan/ton (-10), and futures main - contract price is 5479 yuan/ton (1) [20]. - **News**: Brazilian sugar production in the second half of August increased by 18% year - on - year. Conab lowered the 25/26 Brazilian sugar production forecast to 44.5 million tons [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar trend intensity is 0 [23]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: CF2601's daily - session closing price was 13,350 yuan/ton (-0.41%), and night - session was 13245 yuan/ton (-0.79%); ICE US cotton 12 was 65.4 cents/pound (-1.40%) [25]. - **News**: The new - cotton pre - sale quotes in the domestic cotton spot market continue to increase, and the cotton yarn market's trading atmosphere is average [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [28]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Egg 2510's closing price was 2,918 yuan/500 kg (-1.15%), and Egg 2601's closing price was 3,352 yuan/500 kg (-0.24%) [29]. - **Trend Intensity**: Egg trend intensity is 0 [29]. Pigs - **Fundamental Data**: Henan's spot price is 12430 yuan/ton (-150), Sichuan's is 11900 yuan/ton (-200), and Guangdong's is 12710 yuan/ton (-200) [33]. - **Trend Intensity**: Pig trend intensity is - 1 [34]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts is 8,600 yuan/ton (+100), PK510's closing price is 7,800 yuan/ton (0.21%), and PK511's is 7,822 yuan/ton (0.49%) [36]. - **News**: In the spot market, peanut prices in different regions are generally stable, affected by weather and supply [37]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [40].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term and intraday views of soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil are all "oscillating weakly", and the medium - term views are all "oscillating". The overall market sentiment is weak as the National Day holiday approaches, with market volatility decreasing and funds showing risk - aversion [5][7][8] Group 3: Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - Intraday view: Oscillating weakly; Medium - term view: Oscillating; Reference view: Oscillating weakly. With the approaching of the National Day holiday, the market sentiment has weakened, the price fluctuation of soybean products has narrowed, the domestic supply pressure remains unresolved, the downstream pre - holiday stocking is basically over, the inventory pressure of oil mills' soybean meal still exists, and the negative basis has not been repaired [5] Palm Oil (P) - Intraday view: Oscillating weakly; Medium - term view: Oscillating; Reference view: Oscillating weakly. The sharp decline in international oil prices has dragged down the oil market. Although the palm oil industry chain still has support, as the holiday approaches, market funds are risk - averse, resulting in the short - term palm oil futures price oscillating weakly [8] Others - For soybean meal 2601, factors affecting the market include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil mill operation rhythm, and stocking demand. For soybean oil 2601, factors include US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory. For palm 2601, factors include biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [7]

| | | | Million | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年09月29日 | | 棉花 | ★☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ☆☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | ★☆★ | | | 20号胶 | ななな | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 期价偏强运行。新李度苹果方面,采青富士上色速度偏慢。已经订购的货源质量一般。晚熟富士逐渐开始摘袋,今年果个偏 小。另一方面,由于早熟率果行情较好,果农看涨热情较高，预计晚熟富士的开秤价格较高。从基本面看,早熟苹果上市后价 格较高，现货市场对10月份上市的晚熟苹果的开秤价格期望也较高。另一方面，从套袋数据来看，预计25/26季度苹 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - Alumina: No clear indication from the symbol, but it's in a weak - running state [1][3] - Casting Aluminum Alloy: No clear indication from the symbol [1] - Zinc: ☆☆, indicating a long/short bias with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the market [1] - Lead: ☆☆, same as above [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Tin: No clear indication from the symbol [1] - Lithium Carbonate: No clear indication from the symbol [1] - Industrial Silicon: No clear indication from the symbol [1] - Polysilicon: No clear indication from the symbol [1] Core Viewpoints - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, mine production, inventory changes, and market sentiment. Different metals are in different market states, with some showing upward or downward trends, while others are in a state of shock [2][3][4] Summary by Metals Copper - On Monday, Shanghai copper closed up in shock. The spot copper was reported at 82,210 yuan, and the Shanghai copper discount was 5 yuan. The supply absence of Grasberg for two quarters affected the balance sheet and the price shock center. Technically, LME copper showed potential for a trend breakthrough, and the MA20 moving average provided strong support. After the long - term damage to the supply of major copper mines, funds poured in and increased positions, driving up the price. The support level of LME copper rose to $10,000, and the Shanghai copper index was around 79,700 - 80,300 yuan, with 83,000 - 85,000 yuan being the high - level area [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly today, with a spot discount of 10 yuan in East China. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 25,000 tons compared to last Thursday. The destocking before the National Day was neutral, and the apparent consumption in September was basically flat year - on - year. The demand was resilient but lacked highlights. Shanghai aluminum was expected to oscillate between 20,500 - 21,000 yuan. Casting aluminum alloy followed the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum, and the Baotai spot quotation remained at 20,400 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the expected adjustment of the tax rate policy increased enterprise costs, making it more resilient than Shanghai aluminum. However, the industry inventory was at a high level, and the peak - season demand remained to be seen. The operating capacity of alumina exceeded 98 million tons, and the industry inventory continued to rise. The supply surplus was obvious, and the domestic and foreign spot prices continued to decline. The current price still had a profit for the production capacity in Shanxi and Henan, so it was not enough to trigger production cuts. The weak - running support of alumina was around the June low of 2,800 yuan [3] Zinc - As the National Day holiday approached, the downstream restocking was coming to an end. The production expectation of Huoshaoyun zinc smelter was strengthening, and the zinc fundamentals were weakening. Short - sellers increased their positions significantly. The weighted position of Shanghai zinc increased by 20,700 lots to 251,000 lots, and the main contract touched a minimum of 21,665 yuan/ton. The average price of domestic concentrate TC in October was significantly reduced by 300 yuan/metal ton. With the poor smelting profit of imported ore, the domestic mines were less willing to offer concessions. The support level of Shanghai zinc was still to be concerned at 21,500 yuan/ton. The LME zinc inventory was low, so beware of the possible sudden soft squeeze on the overseas market during the holiday. It was recommended that short - sellers close their positions before the holiday to avoid uncertainties during the National Day holiday [4] Lead - The previously overhauled primary lead smelters resumed production one after another. After the profit of secondary lead smelters was repaired, the resumption of production also increased. The downstream restocking before the holiday was basically over, and the long holiday brought short - term oversupply. The lead fundamentals were weakening, and the long - positions of Shanghai lead accelerated to leave the market. The market dropped significantly, erasing the monthly increase in a single day. The supply of lead concentrates was still tight, and the cost support around 16,500 yuan/ton was still to be concerned [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel was running weakly, and the market trading was dull. The premium of Jinchuan nickel was 2,300 yuan, the premium of imported nickel was 325 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel was 25 yuan. The price of high - nickel ferrochrome was quoted at 956 yuan per nickel point. Recently, the upstream price support rebounded slightly and was further hyped up due to the political situation turmoil, pushing up the price level of the nickel industry chain. The pure nickel inventory decreased by 600 tons to 40,900 tons, the nickel ferrochrome inventory decreased by 600 tons to 28,700 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory increased by 12,000 tons to 909,000 tons. The long - position themes of Shanghai nickel were exhausted, and the nickel price was running weakly, about to start a downward trend [7] Tin - Shanghai tin closed down in shock, and the MA40 moving average provided support. Pay attention to the performance of LME tin at $34,500 in the evening. On the supply side, pay attention to the change in the refined tin operating rate after the major factories resume production after the holiday. On the demand side, the domestic tin upstream and downstream continued the destocking rhythm and actively restocked before the holiday. Pay attention to the inventory change after the holiday, and the actual demand still lacked highlights. The tin price was difficult to break out of a trend market for the time being. After the restocking was over, it was recommended to hold a light position and wait and see during the holiday [8] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate oscillated, and the market trading was dull. The total market inventory decreased by 700 tons to 136,800 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 33,000 tons, the downstream inventory increased by 1,400 tons to 61,000 tons. After the price dropped rapidly, the downstream took the opportunity to take delivery, and the trader inventory decreased by 1,140 tons to 42,000 tons. The middle - stream began to be cautious. The transfer of cargo rights was mainly from the upstream to the downstream. The low - level support of the lithium carbonate futures price emerged, but the selling actions in the industry chain were basically completed. After the interest rate cut was implemented and the anti - involution tide ebbed, the price was under pressure from the expected end. Still pay attention to the news on September 30th [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures decreased in position and fell back to 8,600 yuan/ton, partly affected by the weakening sentiment of the coking coal market. The spot price of Xinjiang 421 silicon was reduced by 50 yuan/ton to 9,200 yuan/ton. Although the expected reduction in the polysilicon production schedule in October was limited, the drag on the demand for industrial silicon was relatively controllable. However, the time node of production cuts in the Sichuan and Yunnan production areas of industrial silicon was still uncertain, and the supply - side contraction rhythm was not clear. From the current supply - demand pattern, it was difficult to form an effective driving force to support the continuous upward movement of the price, and the upward space was still restricted. As the National Day holiday approached, it was recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures market oscillation narrowed. With the gradual advancement of policies, the sentiment gradually returned to rationality. The production reduction intensity of polysilicon in October might be less than the previous market expectation, and the overall output contraction of the industry was limited. The industry was still in the period of high - level inventory accumulation, and the rise of the spot price slowed down. The short - term market was expected to maintain an oscillating operation. As the National Day holiday approached, it was recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention overall industry investment ratings but provides trend intensities for each commodity, which can be used as a reference for investment ratings: - **Weak or Bearish**: Synthetic rubber, rubber,纯碱, with trend intensities of -1 [17][11][64] - **Neutral**: PX, PTA, MEG, LLDPE, PP,烧碱,甲醇,尿素,苯乙烯, LPG,丙烯, PVC, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil,集运指数（欧线）, with trend intensities of 0 [7][8][9][33][37][43][56][59][60][71][75][77][79] - **Bullish**: Glass, with a trend intensity of 1 [51] Report's Core View The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various energy - chemical commodities, including their current market conditions, supply - demand situations, and future trends. Most commodities are expected to show different degrees of price fluctuations in the short - to - medium term, affected by factors such as supply - demand balance, cost support, and policy changes. Traders are advised to pay attention to position management before the National Day holiday [2]. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Unilateral trend may remain weak, with 1 - 5 reverse spread. PXN should take profit. Weak demand and high inventory pressure during the National Day holiday limit upward drive. Domestic PX开工率 is 86.7% (+0.4%), and Asian PX开工率 is 78% (-0.2%) [7]. - **PTA**: Unilateral trend may remain weak, with 1 - 5 reverse spread. Rebound in PTA processing fees on 01/05 contracts should be shorted. Demand pressure is high, and supply - demand imbalance persists. PTA负荷 is 76.8% (-) [8]. - **MEG**: Unilateral trend may remain weak, with 1 - 5 reverse spread. Supply pressure eases marginally with upcoming maintenance plans. Polyester开工率 is 90.3% (-1.3%), and post - holiday inventory pressure may increase [9]. Rubber - **Market Situation**: The market is in a weak - oscillating state. Futures prices have declined, and trading volume has increased. Multiple tire raw material prices have dropped, reducing tire production costs [10][11][13]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Situation**: It is in a weak operation. High supply pressure and inventory accumulation lead to downward pressure on prices. However, the decline rate may slow down due to valuation factors [17]. Asphalt - **Market Situation**: Cost support exists, but factory inventories continue to accumulate. Production has increased, and different regions show different inventory trends. The market may follow the oil price in a range - bound oscillation [18][30]. LLDPE - **Market Situation**: In the short term, it is relatively strong, and in the medium term, it may oscillate. Cost support is strong, demand from the agricultural film industry is improving, and inventory pressure is low [32]. PP - **Market Situation**: It is expected to be in an oscillating market. Short - term demand has improved, cost support is strong, and supply - side low - profit factors limit price fluctuations [36]. Caustic Soda - **Market Situation**: It is suppressed by weak reality but strongly supported by cost. The market is in a wide - range oscillation, with multiple factors such as supply - demand, export, and cost in play [41]. Pulp - **Market Situation**: It is in a weak - oscillating state. The import market shows a differentiation pattern of weak coniferous pulp and strong broad - leaf pulp, affected by supply - demand and cost factors [44][48]. Glass - **Market Situation**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The market price fluctuates, and the trading atmosphere varies by region. Some downstream factories have orders before the holiday, but overall, the market is affected by factors such as price and demand [51]. Methanol - **Market Situation**: It is expected to oscillate in the short term. High inventory pressure restricts the upward space, while policy expectations provide support [55]. Urea - **Market Situation**: It will oscillate before the National Day and trend weakly in the medium term. Short - term price stability is due to pre - holiday order collection, while long - term pressure comes from weak domestic demand [58][59]. Styrene - **Market Situation**: Short - term empty orders should be closed before the National Day. High inventory problems persist, but low - valuation speculation may occur [61]. Soda Ash - **Market Situation**: The spot market changes little. Supply remains high, and downstream demand is weak. The market is expected to adjust weakly and stably [64]. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: It has strong short - term support, and attention should be paid to cost changes [67]. - **Propylene**: It runs weakly in the short term, affected by factors such as supply - demand and price differentials [68]. PVC - **Market Situation**: It oscillates at a low level. Although there is support from anti - deflation and anti - involution factors, high - inventory and weak - demand fundamentals persist [74]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: Its strong trend continues, and it is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [77]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It oscillates strongly, and the price differential between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market narrows slightly [77]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Market Situation**: It is in an oscillating market, and attention should be paid to the emotional impact of price increase announcements. Freight rates have declined, and the market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and exchange rates [79].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report suggests paying attention to low - buying opportunities for methanol. Although the short - term upward drive is limited due to high port inventory and low downstream profit, considering the low price of East China spot, traditional downstream peak season, and potential gas restriction in Iran, the port inventory pressure may decrease, and it is advisable to wait for long - buying opportunities [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Information - **Futures Prices**: MA01 decreased by 1 yuan/ton (-0.04%) to 2355 yuan/ton, MA05 dropped 4 yuan/ton (-0.17%) to 2384 yuan/ton, and MA09 fell 6 yuan/ton (-0.26%) to 2343 yuan/ton [1] - **Spot Prices**: Increases were seen in some regions like Taicang (up 10 yuan/ton, 0.44% to 2257.50 yuan/ton) and Guangdong (up 15 yuan/ton, 0.67% to 2265 yuan/ton), while prices in some areas remained unchanged, and Inner Mongolia rose 5 yuan/ton (0.24%) to 2090 yuan/ton [1] - **Cost Prices**: Coal prices decreased, with Bohai Rim Q5500 down 10 yuan/ton (-1.87%) to 525 yuan/ton, Datong Q5500 down 15 yuan/ton (-2.49%) to 587.50 yuan/ton, and Yulin Q6000 down 7.5 yuan/ton (-1.22%) to 605 yuan/ton. Industrial natural gas prices in some areas remained stable [1] 2. Profit Information - **Methanol Production Profit**: Coal - based methanol profit remained at 328.50 yuan/ton, and natural - gas - based methanol profit stayed at - 422 yuan/ton [1] - **Downstream Profit**: Northwest MTO profit decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-32.89%) to - 40.40 yuan/ton, and East China MTO profit dropped 21 yuan/ton (-3.49%) to - 623.07 yuan/ton. Acetic acid profit increased 1.08 yuan/ton (0.20%) to 548.11 yuan/ton, while other downstream products' profits remained stable [1] 3. Important Information - Domestic methanol futures: The main contract MA2601 first rose then fell, opening and closing at 2355 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton, with trading volume of 556,255 lots and open interest of 885,132 lots, showing increased volume and decreased open interest [1] - Foreign information: A 1.75 - million - ton methanol plant in Southeast Asia is restarting after a short - term shutdown for maintenance [1] 4. Trading Strategy - Pay attention to opportunities for buying on dips [1]

Report Information - Report Date: September 29, 2025 [1] - Authors: Zhou Xiaoqiu, Wu Hao [1] - Investment Advisory Qualification Numbers: Z0001891 (Zhou Xiaoqiu), Z0018592 (Wu Hao) [1] - Email Addresses: zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com (Zhou Xiaoqiu), wuhao8@gtht.com (Wu Hao) [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The bottom of the live pig spot market has not been reached, and short positions should be held [1] Summary of Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: Henan's spot price is 12,580 yuan/ton, Sichuan's is 12,150 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton year-on-year), and Guangdong's is 13,110 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures Prices**: The prices of live pig futures contracts 2511, 2601, and 2603 are 12,575 yuan/ton (down 110 yuan/ton year-on-year), 13,100 yuan/ton (down 210 yuan/ton year-on-year), and 12,655 yuan/ton (down 90 yuan/ton year-on-year) respectively [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of contracts 2511, 2601, and 2603 are 38,742 lots (up 7,824 lots from the previous day), 26,927 lots (up 13,770 lots), and 7,332 lots (up 1,890 lots) respectively; the open interests are 85,019 lots (down 4,519 lots from the previous day), 71,622 lots (up 5,120 lots), and 50,862 lots (up 2,386 lots) respectively [2] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of contracts 2511, 2601, and 2603 are 5 yuan/ton (up 110 yuan/ton year-on-year), -520 yuan/ton (up 210 yuan/ton year-on-year), and -75 yuan/ton (up 90 yuan/ton year-on-year) respectively; the spreads between contracts 11 - 1 and 1 - 3 are -525 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton year-on-year) and 445 yuan/ton (down 120 yuan/ton year-on-year) respectively [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is -1, indicating a bearish view. The range of trend intensity is an integer within [-2, 2], with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3]

王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 2025 年 9 月 29 日 沥青：成本支撑，厂库续累 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2511 | 元/吨 | 3,450 | 0.29% | 3,463 | 0.38% | | | BU2512 | 元/吨 | 3,412 | 0.80% | 3,425 | 0.38% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2511 | 手 | 210,079 | 34,702 | 158,628 | (39,021) | | | BU2512 | 手 | 69,526 | 15,722 | 92,132 | 3,610 | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 50650 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | 价差 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the market expected it to be bearish, with limited upside for basis and absolute prices to fluctuate with the cost side. Attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations and upstream - downstream device changes [5]. - For MEG, the price was expected to be sorted at a low level before the holiday. The supply - demand balance would turn to surplus in the fourth quarter, and the fundamental support was weak. Attention should be paid to external factors and device changes [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - Not provided in the report 2. Daily Tips PTA - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, September cargo was traded at 01 - 73~75, with prices negotiated around 4570 - 4605. Mid - October cargo was traded at a discount of 55 - 60 to 01, and late - October cargo at a discount of 50 to 01. The mainstream spot basis was 01 - 74 [5]. - **Basis**: Spot price was 4590, 01 contract basis was - 56, with the futures price higher than the spot price [6]. - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventory was 3.75 days, a decrease of 0.05 days compared to the previous period [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average [6]. - **Main positions**: Net short positions were decreasing [6]. - **Expectation**: PTA futures rebounded with the cost side this week. Some PTA plants reduced or stopped production due to typhoons, and polyester sales improved. The spot basis strengthened slightly, but the market remained bearish, with limited upside for the basis [5]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, the price of ethylene glycol declined weakly. Night - session trading was weak, with spot trading at a premium of 57 - 62 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. The intraday basis recovered slightly, with September futures trading at a premium of 65 yuan/ton to the 01 contract [7]. - **Basis**: Spot price was 4300, 01 contract basis was 77, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China was 40.43 tons, an increase of 2.26 tons compared to the previous period [8]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - **Main positions**: Net short positions were increasing [7]. - **Expectation**: Polyester sales improved last week, and polyester factory inventories decreased. However, the intention to hold positions before the holiday was weak. The price was expected to be sorted at a low level. The supply - demand balance would turn to surplus in the fourth quarter, and the fundamental support was weak [7]. 3. Today's Focus Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 607,000 barrels last week, contrary to analysts' expectations of an increase of 235,000 barrels. The approaching "Golden September and Silver October" season raised expectations of demand. Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton plant was shut down for maintenance and was expected to restart in November [9][10][11]. - **Negative factors**: The short - term commodity market was greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and resistance levels should be watched for a rebound in the market [12]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **PTA**: The report provided PTA supply - demand balance sheets from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on capacity, production, imports, exports, and inventory [13]. - **MEG**: The report provided ethylene glycol supply - demand balance sheets from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on production, imports, and inventory [14]. 4. Fundamental Data Price - The report presented historical price data for bottle chips, production margins, and various spreads for PTA and MEG from 2020 to 2025 [17][20][27]. Inventory Analysis - It included historical inventory data for PTA, MEG, PET chips, and polyester fibers from 2021 to 2025 [44][46]. Upstream and Downstream开工率 - It showed historical开工率 data for PTA, xylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [54][58]. Profit - It presented historical profit data for PTA, MEG, polyester fibers, and other products from 2022 to 2025 [63][64].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The mid - term trends of p - xylene (PX), purified terephthalic acid (PTA), and monoethylene glycol (MEG) are still weak. Before the holiday, attention should be paid to position management. For MEG, a 1 - 5 month spread reverse arbitrage is recommended [1]. - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG are all neutral (0) [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Futures Data**: The previous day's closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures were 6656, 4646, 4213, 6326, and 491.3 respectively, with changes of - 18, - 32, - 33, - 46, and 0.7, and percentage changes of - 0.27%, - 0.68%, - 0.78%, - 0.72%, and 0.14% [2]. - **Month - spread Data**: The previous day's closing prices of PX1 - 5, PTA1 - 5, MEG1 - 5, PF12 - 1, and SC11 - 12 month - spreads were - 32, - 46, - 63, - 44, and - 0.8 respectively, with changes of 10, - 6, 1, 0, and 0.3 [2]. - **Spot Data**: The previous day's spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent were 814 dollars/ton, 4590 yuan/ton, 4300 yuan/ton, 608 dollars/ton, and 71.92 dollars/barrel respectively, with changes of - 3, 0, 10, - 0.5, and 1.39 [2]. - **Spot Processing Fee Data**: The previous day's spot processing fees of PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread were 206 dollars/ton, 217.21 yuan/ton, 222.06 yuan/ton, 59.94 yuan/ton, and - 6.01 respectively, with changes of - 2.5, 19.02, - 12.24, - 29.3, and 0 [2]. Market Dynamics In 2025, on September 5, the US White House issued a presidential order, canceling the exemption from reciprocal tariffs for the tariff codes 3907.61.00 and 3907.69.00 related to polyester bottle chips, and including polyester bottle chips in the scope of reciprocal tariff collection. Recycled PET now has the same tariff system as virgin PET [2]. Views and Suggestions - **PX**: The unilateral trend may still be weak, and a 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage is recommended. The PXN position for compression should be closed with a profit. The domestic PX operating rate is 86.7% (+0.4%), and the Asian PX operating rate is 78% (-0.2%). The PTA load is 76.8% (-). The PTA processing fee has recovered to 217 yuan/ton, and PXN has dropped to 206 dollars/ton. Overseas reforming profits are low, and South Korean plants may reduce their loads in the future. Attention should be paid to the support of overseas MX blending demand for PX valuation [4]. - **PTA**: The unilateral trend may still be weak, and a 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage is recommended. Short the PTA processing fee of 01/05 contracts on rebounds. The PTA load is 76.8% (-). The polyester operating rate this week is 90.3% (-1.3%). Although there are unplanned production cuts, the supply surplus in East China is still difficult to change, and the basis is difficult to strengthen significantly. In the medium - to - long term, the inventory pressure of polyester factories is expected to rise again after the holiday [5]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend may still be weak, and a 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage is recommended. The overall operating load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland is 73.08% (down 1.85% from the previous period). Factories have announced maintenance plans for October - November. The polyester operating rate this week is 90.3% (-1.3%). The ethylene glycol supply - demand balance sheet is still strong in the near - term, and the basis is expected to be strong [6].