Group 1 - The essence of the "anti-involution" policy is "correction" rather than "stimulation," aiming to reshape the logic of industrial competition [1][5] - The impact of the "anti-involution" policy on prices is structural and mild, with the key variables for future price trends being the strength of demand recovery and the pace of policy coordination [1][5] - The "anti-involution" policy has led to improvements in supply-demand relationships in certain industries, resulting in positive changes in pricing [2] Group 2 - Since the beginning of the year, signals of the "anti-involution" policy have been continuously reinforced, with various measures taken to address "involution-style" competition [2] - The revised Anti-Unfair Competition Law prohibits selling goods below cost, providing a legal basis for combating "involution-style" competition [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in July remained at a low of -3.6% year-on-year, but the month-on-month decline has narrowed, indicating some stabilization in industrial prices [3][4] Group 3 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains weak overall, but the core CPI has rebounded for three consecutive months, benefiting from reduced price wars in the automotive and home appliance sectors [3] - The improvement in PPI is primarily concentrated in upstream raw materials and industrial products, which have a low direct correlation with consumer spending [4] - The transmission mechanism from PPI to CPI remains ineffective, as insufficient terminal consumer demand limits companies' pricing power [4]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in July showed a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, indicating a shift from decline to growth, while the year-on-year change remained flat [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024 [2][4] - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by increases in service prices, which rose by 0.6% month-on-month, contributing significantly to the overall CPI increase [2][3] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but the decline was less than the previous month, indicating a potential stabilization in certain industries [3][4] - The year-on-year PPI decline was 3.6%, consistent with the previous month, suggesting ongoing challenges in the manufacturing sector [4][5] - Improvements in supply-demand relationships in some industries were noted, with price declines narrowing in sectors like coal, steel, and solar energy [3][4] Group 3 - Economic stability and demand expansion are expected to support a moderate recovery in prices in the second half of the year [5][6] - Policies aimed at boosting domestic demand are anticipated to positively influence consumer prices [5][6] - The impact of international commodity price fluctuations on the domestic market is expected to diminish, contributing to a more stable price environment [6]

Group 1: CPI and PPI Trends - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned from a decrease of 0.1% in the previous month to an increase of 0.4%, exceeding seasonal levels by 0.1 percentage points [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but the decline was narrowed by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, marking the first contraction reduction since March [1] - Service prices rose by 0.6% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.26 percentage points to the CPI increase, with significant price hikes in air tickets (17.9%), tourism (9.1%), hotel accommodation (6.9%), and vehicle rentals (4.4%) [1] Group 2: Impact of Consumption Policies - The "trade-in" policy for old vehicles has stabilized prices for fuel and new energy vehicles, which had been declining for over five months [2] - The prices of household appliances have also shown a significant increase, indicating that consumption promotion policies are effectively supporting the overall price level [2] - The central government's emphasis on regulating low-price competition in the automotive sector is expected to further stabilize prices and support the overall price level [2] Group 3: Industry Competition and Price Adjustments - The construction of a unified national market has led to improved competition in industries such as coal, steel, photovoltaic, cement, and lithium batteries, with price declines in these sectors narrowing [3] - The month-on-month price declines in coal mining, black metal smelting, photovoltaic equipment manufacturing, cement manufacturing, and lithium-ion battery manufacturing have decreased by 1.9, 1.5, 0.8, 0.3, and 0.1 percentage points respectively, reducing the overall downward pressure on PPI [3] - The overall trend indicates a narrowing of PPI declines, with the year-on-year decline remaining stable due to changes in the previous year's base [3]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In July, the CPI remained flat year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8%, marking the highest increase since March 2024 [1][3][4] - The year-on-year stability of the CPI was primarily influenced by lower food prices, which decreased by 1.6% compared to the same month last year. Fresh vegetable prices fell by 7.6%, while fresh fruit prices increased by 2.8% [3][4] - The month-on-month increase in CPI was driven by rising service and industrial consumer goods prices, with service prices up by 0.6% and industrial consumer goods prices up by 0.5% [4][3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - In July, the PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, with the decline consistent with June's figures. However, the month-on-month decline of 0.2% showed a narrowing compared to June [5][6] - Certain industries experienced improved supply-demand relationships, leading to positive price changes. For instance, the price of caustic soda rose by 3.6%, and the price of glass manufacturing saw a reduced decline of 0.9% compared to June [6][7] - The month-on-month decline in PPI was influenced by seasonal factors, with prices in the coal mining and washing industry, black metal smelting, and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing showing reduced declines compared to the previous month [7][6] Group 3: Future Price Trends - The National Bureau of Statistics indicated that prices are expected to gradually recover in the second half of the year, driven by effective policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, which will stimulate consumption and push up consumer goods prices [8] - The holiday effect is anticipated to stabilize or increase service prices, while the downward pressure from tailing factors on both CPI and PPI is expected to diminish [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Overseas: After the expiration of the tariff exemption in July, Trump significantly upgraded tariffs on multiple countries. From August 1st, tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% will be imposed on goods from countries such as Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, South Africa, Laos, and Myanmar; 50% on Brazilian goods; the tariff on Canadian goods will be raised to 35%; and a unified 30% tariff will be imposed on the EU and Mexico. Additionally, a 50% tariff will be imposed on copper imports, and a 200% tariff on imported drugs starting from 2027. The overall tariff strategy shows a pattern of "intensive deployment + delayed implementation" to strengthen negotiation chips and the expectation of industrial back - flow. Currently, it has triggered the brewing of counter - measures from multiple countries. Tariff disturbances are generally limited. The rising expectation of interest rate cuts and the increase in risk appetite dominate the market. The US stocks continued to reach new highs, the US dollar index fluctuated and rebounded, and gold strengthened slightly. This week, focus on the US CPI and retail data for June [2]. - Domestic: In June, prices generally showed weak performance. The year - on - year CPI turned positive to 0.1%, and the core CPI slightly rebounded, mainly driven by the rebound of consumer goods such as oil prices. The decline of PPI widened to - 3.6%, reaching a new low in the past two years, significantly affected by the real estate and black - metal sectors, which reflects the necessity of the current policy orientation of optimizing the supply structure and anti - involution. Currently, the domestic market is in a resonance window period with stable external risks, moderate internal economic fluctuations, and continuously rising policy expectations. The optimization of the supply side and the expectation of real - estate policies became the main trading lines last week. The Shanghai Composite Index reached the 3500 mark. As the index continuously reaches new highs, be vigilant about the callback pressure caused by profit - taking of funds. It is not advisable to chase the high in the short term. The stock - bond seesaw effect is significant. Policy expectations and the warming of the stock market suppress the bond market. Currently, interest rates do not have a significant basis for upward movement and lack the momentum to break through the previous low. They will fluctuate in the short term waiting for a catalyst. This week, focus on China's financial, foreign trade data for June and the economic data for the second quarter [3]. Summary by Directory Overseas Macro - Trump launched a new round of tariff offensives. Since early July, Trump has intensively announced multiple rounds of country - specific tariff upgrades targeting major trading partners in Asia, Latin America, Europe, and the United States. From July 7th, the Trump administration successively announced tariff increases on goods from multiple countries, including 25% - 40% on Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, South Africa, Laos, and Myanmar; 50% on Brazilian goods; the tariff on Canadian goods was raised to 35% due to USMCA implementation issues; and a unified 30% tariff on the EU and Mexican goods, with August 1st set as the unified effective date, forming a concentrated pressure situation. The tariff measures show the characteristic of "chipping" with the intention of structural industrial protection, which has triggered the brewing of counter - measures from multiple countries. Most of these tariffs have a grace period for implementation, reflecting the strategy of "tariffs for negotiation" to prompt other countries to make concessions on trade rules and manufacturing investment. Trump also proposed to raise the benchmark of reciprocal tariffs from 10% to 15 - 20% and announced a 200% tariff on imported drugs starting from 2027 to promote the back - flow of the domestic high - end manufacturing industry. An investigation was launched on copper imports and a 50% tariff is planned to be imposed. Currently, Canada has chosen to postpone counter - measures to争取 a negotiation window, and the EU plans to jointly counter US tariffs with Canada and Japan [5]. Domestic Macro - In June, prices were weakly running. The CPI and PPI weakened as expected. The year - on - year CPI was 0.1%, the core CPI was at a high for the year, and the PPI decline widened to - 3.6%. The CPI turned positive year - on - year, and the core CPI moderately recovered. The decline of food prices eased, and beef prices started to rise after a two - year decline, while pork prices changed from rising to falling. The decline of non - food prices narrowed, and the downward pressure on energy prices weakened. The decline of industrial products intensified, with oil and non - ferrous metals being relatively strong and black metals being relatively weak. The PPI's internal price - rising momentum remained weak [8][9]. Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: The A - share market generally rose last week. The Shanghai Composite Index reached 3510.18, up 1.09% from the previous week, with a monthly increase of 1.91% and a year - to - date increase of 4.73%. The performance of overseas stock markets varied. The US stocks generally rose, while the Japanese stock market declined. The South Korean stock market had a significant increase, with a year - to - date increase of 32.35% [12]. - Bond: Domestic bond yields generally rose slightly last week. The 1 - year Treasury bond yield rose by 3.49BP, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose by 2.05BP. Overseas, the yields of US and European bonds also generally rose [16]. - Commodity: The commodity market generally rose last week. The Nanhua Commodity Index rose by 1.01%, and the CRB Commodity Index rose by 1.20%. Gold and silver prices rose significantly, while copper prices declined [18]. - Foreign Exchange: The US dollar index rose last week, up 0.91%. The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB rose slightly, while the exchange rates of the euro, pound, and yen against the RMB declined [21]. High - Frequency Data Tracking - Domestic: The report provides data on domestic high - frequency indicators such as the congestion index of 100 cities, subway passenger volume in 23 cities, commercial housing transaction area in 30 cities, and second - hand housing transaction area in 12 cities [23]. - Overseas: The report provides data on overseas high - frequency indicators such as Redbook commercial retail sales, unemployment insurance claims, US Treasury yield spread inversion, and FedWatch interest rate change probability [25][26]. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - The report lists important economic data and events to be released this week, including China's trade balance, export and import growth rates, and GDP data for June; the US CPI, PPI, and retail sales data for June; and the eurozone's ZEW economic sentiment index and CPI data [32][33].

Group 1 - The overall price trend of consumer goods in Dezhou, Shandong Province shows a slight increase of 0.53% compared to the previous week, with 16 out of 55 monitored items rising in price [1] - Agricultural production material prices also saw a slight increase of 0.45%, with 6 out of 25 monitored items rising [1] Group 2 - Grain and oil prices remained stable, with key monitored items such as flour at 2.06 yuan, noodles at 2.72 yuan, and peanut oil at 156.65 yuan per 5L maintaining their prices from the previous week [1] - Egg prices decreased by 6.74% to 2.63 yuan per 500 grams, while pork prices slightly increased by 0.2% to 15.29 yuan [1] Group 3 - Vegetable prices overall increased by 6.48%, with 11 out of 17 monitored vegetable varieties rising in price, including cabbage and garlic, with increases ranging from 1.12% to 44.8% [2] - Fruit prices showed mixed results, with an overall decrease of 1.37% in the average price, as apples and bananas saw declines of 3.31% and 5.52% respectively [2] Group 4 - Some agricultural input prices experienced slight fluctuations, with domestic urea prices rising by 2.03% to 1.89 yuan per kilogram, while chicken feed prices decreased by 0.47% to 3.72 yuan [2]

Group 1: CPI Trends - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned from a decline to an increase of 0.1% year-on-year, while the month-on-month change decreased by 0.1%, narrowing the decline by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [2] - The marginal improvement in CPI is attributed to the rebound in industrial consumer goods prices and the upward pressure on domestic refined oil prices due to external factors [2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.7% year-on-year in June, marking a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month, the highest in nearly 14 months [3] Group 2: PPI Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month in June, with the decline remaining consistent with the previous month, although some industry prices showed signs of stabilization and recovery [5] - The year-on-year decline in PPI expanded by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, influenced by seasonal price declines in domestic raw materials and uncertainties in the international trade environment [5] - Certain sectors, such as the manufacturing of gasoline and new energy vehicles, saw a month-on-month price increase of 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively, with year-on-year declines narrowing by 1.9 and 0.4 percentage points [6] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Policy Impact - The implementation of more proactive macro policies has led to continuous improvement in the economic climate for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, addressing supply-demand structural issues and boosting the development speed of certain consumer goods and equipment manufacturing industries [4] - The effects of consumption promotion policies have been evident, with prices of durable consumer goods, home textiles, and household appliances rising by 2.0%, 2.0%, and 1.0% year-on-year, respectively [3] - The transition of the consumption market from "scale expansion" to "quality enhancement" is expected to further improve service consumption in culture and sports, driving a rebound in consumer prices [6]

Core Viewpoint - The minutes from the Bank of Japan's meeting indicate that one member believes the likelihood of a further decline in basic prices in Japan is low [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Monetary Policy Outlook** - The discussion reflects a cautious stance on the potential for further price decreases, suggesting a stable outlook for monetary policy in the near term [1]

Group 1 - The core objective of macroeconomic policy in the second half of the year is to promote a reasonable recovery of price levels, which will create space for fiscal measures to boost consumption and investment, as well as for further interest rate cuts by the central bank [1][2][5] - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of negative growth, primarily due to falling energy prices and lower food prices [1][3][4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a year-on-year decline of 3.3% in May, with the drop in production material prices contributing significantly to this decline [1][6][10] Group 2 - The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.6% year-on-year in May, indicating a slight improvement in underlying price levels [1][4][5] - The decline in food prices, particularly fresh vegetables and eggs, has been a major factor in the overall CPI decrease, with fresh vegetable prices dropping by 8.3% year-on-year [3][4][6] - The implementation of policies aimed at boosting consumption, such as the trade-in program for vehicles and appliances, has provided some support to prices in certain sectors [4][5][8] Group 3 - The analysis indicates that while the PPI is expected to show marginal improvement, it is likely to remain in negative territory for some time due to external and internal pressures [8][9][10] - The demand for high-tech products is increasing, leading to price increases in sectors such as integrated circuits and aircraft manufacturing [8] - The overall economic environment remains challenging, with low inflation levels exerting pressure on corporate operations and employment [5][6]

日本央行行长植田和男：物价走势停滞后逐步回升。 ...