Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Overseas: After the expiration of the tariff exemption in July, Trump significantly upgraded tariffs on multiple countries. From August 1st, tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% will be imposed on goods from countries such as Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, South Africa, Laos, and Myanmar; 50% on Brazilian goods; the tariff on Canadian goods will be raised to 35%; and a unified 30% tariff will be imposed on the EU and Mexico. Additionally, a 50% tariff will be imposed on copper imports, and a 200% tariff on imported drugs starting from 2027. The overall tariff strategy shows a pattern of "intensive deployment + delayed implementation" to strengthen negotiation chips and the expectation of industrial back - flow. Currently, it has triggered the brewing of counter - measures from multiple countries. Tariff disturbances are generally limited. The rising expectation of interest rate cuts and the increase in risk appetite dominate the market. The US stocks continued to reach new highs, the US dollar index fluctuated and rebounded, and gold strengthened slightly. This week, focus on the US CPI and retail data for June [2]. - Domestic: In June, prices generally showed weak performance. The year - on - year CPI turned positive to 0.1%, and the core CPI slightly rebounded, mainly driven by the rebound of consumer goods such as oil prices. The decline of PPI widened to - 3.6%, reaching a new low in the past two years, significantly affected by the real estate and black - metal sectors, which reflects the necessity of the current policy orientation of optimizing the supply structure and anti - involution. Currently, the domestic market is in a resonance window period with stable external risks, moderate internal economic fluctuations, and continuously rising policy expectations. The optimization of the supply side and the expectation of real - estate policies became the main trading lines last week. The Shanghai Composite Index reached the 3500 mark. As the index continuously reaches new highs, be vigilant about the callback pressure caused by profit - taking of funds. It is not advisable to chase the high in the short term. The stock - bond seesaw effect is significant. Policy expectations and the warming of the stock market suppress the bond market. Currently, interest rates do not have a significant basis for upward movement and lack the momentum to break through the previous low. They will fluctuate in the short term waiting for a catalyst. This week, focus on China's financial, foreign trade data for June and the economic data for the second quarter [3]. Summary by Directory Overseas Macro - Trump launched a new round of tariff offensives. Since early July, Trump has intensively announced multiple rounds of country - specific tariff upgrades targeting major trading partners in Asia, Latin America, Europe, and the United States. From July 7th, the Trump administration successively announced tariff increases on goods from multiple countries, including 25% - 40% on Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, South Africa, Laos, and Myanmar; 50% on Brazilian goods; the tariff on Canadian goods was raised to 35% due to USMCA implementation issues; and a unified 30% tariff on the EU and Mexican goods, with August 1st set as the unified effective date, forming a concentrated pressure situation. The tariff measures show the characteristic of "chipping" with the intention of structural industrial protection, which has triggered the brewing of counter - measures from multiple countries. Most of these tariffs have a grace period for implementation, reflecting the strategy of "tariffs for negotiation" to prompt other countries to make concessions on trade rules and manufacturing investment. Trump also proposed to raise the benchmark of reciprocal tariffs from 10% to 15 - 20% and announced a 200% tariff on imported drugs starting from 2027 to promote the back - flow of the domestic high - end manufacturing industry. An investigation was launched on copper imports and a 50% tariff is planned to be imposed. Currently, Canada has chosen to postpone counter - measures to争取 a negotiation window, and the EU plans to jointly counter US tariffs with Canada and Japan [5]. Domestic Macro - In June, prices were weakly running. The CPI and PPI weakened as expected. The year - on - year CPI was 0.1%, the core CPI was at a high for the year, and the PPI decline widened to - 3.6%. The CPI turned positive year - on - year, and the core CPI moderately recovered. The decline of food prices eased, and beef prices started to rise after a two - year decline, while pork prices changed from rising to falling. The decline of non - food prices narrowed, and the downward pressure on energy prices weakened. The decline of industrial products intensified, with oil and non - ferrous metals being relatively strong and black metals being relatively weak. The PPI's internal price - rising momentum remained weak [8][9]. Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: The A - share market generally rose last week. The Shanghai Composite Index reached 3510.18, up 1.09% from the previous week, with a monthly increase of 1.91% and a year - to - date increase of 4.73%. The performance of overseas stock markets varied. The US stocks generally rose, while the Japanese stock market declined. The South Korean stock market had a significant increase, with a year - to - date increase of 32.35% [12]. - Bond: Domestic bond yields generally rose slightly last week. The 1 - year Treasury bond yield rose by 3.49BP, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose by 2.05BP. Overseas, the yields of US and European bonds also generally rose [16]. - Commodity: The commodity market generally rose last week. The Nanhua Commodity Index rose by 1.01%, and the CRB Commodity Index rose by 1.20%. Gold and silver prices rose significantly, while copper prices declined [18]. - Foreign Exchange: The US dollar index rose last week, up 0.91%. The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB rose slightly, while the exchange rates of the euro, pound, and yen against the RMB declined [21]. High - Frequency Data Tracking - Domestic: The report provides data on domestic high - frequency indicators such as the congestion index of 100 cities, subway passenger volume in 23 cities, commercial housing transaction area in 30 cities, and second - hand housing transaction area in 12 cities [23]. - Overseas: The report provides data on overseas high - frequency indicators such as Redbook commercial retail sales, unemployment insurance claims, US Treasury yield spread inversion, and FedWatch interest rate change probability [25][26]. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - The report lists important economic data and events to be released this week, including China's trade balance, export and import growth rates, and GDP data for June; the US CPI, PPI, and retail sales data for June; and the eurozone's ZEW economic sentiment index and CPI data [32][33].

Group 1 - The overall price trend of consumer goods in Dezhou, Shandong Province shows a slight increase of 0.53% compared to the previous week, with 16 out of 55 monitored items rising in price [1] - Agricultural production material prices also saw a slight increase of 0.45%, with 6 out of 25 monitored items rising [1] Group 2 - Grain and oil prices remained stable, with key monitored items such as flour at 2.06 yuan, noodles at 2.72 yuan, and peanut oil at 156.65 yuan per 5L maintaining their prices from the previous week [1] - Egg prices decreased by 6.74% to 2.63 yuan per 500 grams, while pork prices slightly increased by 0.2% to 15.29 yuan [1] Group 3 - Vegetable prices overall increased by 6.48%, with 11 out of 17 monitored vegetable varieties rising in price, including cabbage and garlic, with increases ranging from 1.12% to 44.8% [2] - Fruit prices showed mixed results, with an overall decrease of 1.37% in the average price, as apples and bananas saw declines of 3.31% and 5.52% respectively [2] Group 4 - Some agricultural input prices experienced slight fluctuations, with domestic urea prices rising by 2.03% to 1.89 yuan per kilogram, while chicken feed prices decreased by 0.47% to 3.72 yuan [2]

Group 1: CPI Trends - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned from a decline to an increase of 0.1% year-on-year, while the month-on-month change decreased by 0.1%, narrowing the decline by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [2] - The marginal improvement in CPI is attributed to the rebound in industrial consumer goods prices and the upward pressure on domestic refined oil prices due to external factors [2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.7% year-on-year in June, marking a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month, the highest in nearly 14 months [3] Group 2: PPI Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month in June, with the decline remaining consistent with the previous month, although some industry prices showed signs of stabilization and recovery [5] - The year-on-year decline in PPI expanded by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, influenced by seasonal price declines in domestic raw materials and uncertainties in the international trade environment [5] - Certain sectors, such as the manufacturing of gasoline and new energy vehicles, saw a month-on-month price increase of 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively, with year-on-year declines narrowing by 1.9 and 0.4 percentage points [6] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Policy Impact - The implementation of more proactive macro policies has led to continuous improvement in the economic climate for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, addressing supply-demand structural issues and boosting the development speed of certain consumer goods and equipment manufacturing industries [4] - The effects of consumption promotion policies have been evident, with prices of durable consumer goods, home textiles, and household appliances rising by 2.0%, 2.0%, and 1.0% year-on-year, respectively [3] - The transition of the consumption market from "scale expansion" to "quality enhancement" is expected to further improve service consumption in culture and sports, driving a rebound in consumer prices [6]

Core Viewpoint - The minutes from the Bank of Japan's meeting indicate that one member believes the likelihood of a further decline in basic prices in Japan is low [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Monetary Policy Outlook** - The discussion reflects a cautious stance on the potential for further price decreases, suggesting a stable outlook for monetary policy in the near term [1]

Group 1 - The core objective of macroeconomic policy in the second half of the year is to promote a reasonable recovery of price levels, which will create space for fiscal measures to boost consumption and investment, as well as for further interest rate cuts by the central bank [1][2][5] - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of negative growth, primarily due to falling energy prices and lower food prices [1][3][4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a year-on-year decline of 3.3% in May, with the drop in production material prices contributing significantly to this decline [1][6][10] Group 2 - The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.6% year-on-year in May, indicating a slight improvement in underlying price levels [1][4][5] - The decline in food prices, particularly fresh vegetables and eggs, has been a major factor in the overall CPI decrease, with fresh vegetable prices dropping by 8.3% year-on-year [3][4][6] - The implementation of policies aimed at boosting consumption, such as the trade-in program for vehicles and appliances, has provided some support to prices in certain sectors [4][5][8] Group 3 - The analysis indicates that while the PPI is expected to show marginal improvement, it is likely to remain in negative territory for some time due to external and internal pressures [8][9][10] - The demand for high-tech products is increasing, leading to price increases in sectors such as integrated circuits and aircraft manufacturing [8] - The overall economic environment remains challenging, with low inflation levels exerting pressure on corporate operations and employment [5][6]

日本央行行长植田和男：物价走势停滞后逐步回升。 ...

Group 1 - The overall economic sentiment is mixed, with some indicators showing recovery while others indicate a decline [1][2][11] - Public transportation usage, including subway and domestic flights, has seen a slight increase, with subway ridership averaging 80.98 million daily in early May, up 2.5% year-on-year [1][5] - Land premium rates have rebounded, reaching 12.37% in early May compared to 9.63% in April [1][5] Group 2 - U.S. imports have shown a significant decline, with a 20.1% decrease in import value in the week of May 1, particularly from China, which saw a 27.9% drop [2][12] - Domestic prices for bulk commodities are weak, with prices for coal, steel, and cement continuing to fall [2][22] - The issuance of new special bonds has exceeded 1 trillion, indicating a significant increase in local government financing plans [2][28] Group 3 - Interest rates have decreased following recent monetary policy adjustments, with DR001 at 1.4908% as of May 9, down 29.45 basis points from April 30 [3][31] - The bond market is experiencing a net issuance of government bonds, with a notable amount of special bonds planned for the second quarter [28][29] Group 4 - Commodity prices are showing divergent trends, with international prices for oil, gold, and copper rising, while domestic prices for coal and construction materials are declining [22][27] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has decreased by 8.6%, indicating a weakening in shipping rates [24][27]