Report Title - Polyolefin Weekly Report, dated July 11, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Last week, L09 rose 0.12% to close at 7291, with a total position reduction of about 8100 lots; PP09 fell 0.13% to close at 7069, with a total position reduction of about 21000 lots. Technically, the recent main contracts of L and PP are running near the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral technical trend [5]. - The main position indicator among Dayue's five major indicators shows that the net positions of high - winning - rate seats for L and PP are both bearish recently [5]. - The basis of the L main contract is - 11, and that of the PP main contract is 111, with the discount of the futures price narrowing [5]. - Fundamentally, in June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months; the Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than that in May, and the same as in April, returning above the critical point. On July 5, OPEC issued an increase statement, increasing production for the fourth consecutive month [5]. - In terms of supply and demand, it is the off - season for PE agricultural films, and the downstream of packaging films remains weak. Most enterprises have reduced their loads, and the overall downstream demand is weak. There is still pressure from new capacity coming into production in the future. It is also the off - season for PP downstream demand, and the demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc. is weak. Internationally, attention should be paid to the subsequent negotiation situation between China and the United States. The inventory of the polyolefin industry chain is moderately high. This week, the main contracts of L and PP are expected to fluctuate [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance - **Futures Price Changes**: L01 rose 0.48%, L05 rose 0.29%, L09 rose 0.12%; PP01 rose 0.17%, PP05 rose 0.07%, PP09 fell 0.13% [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: For PE, the L delivery product price decreased by 50, PE comprehensive factory inventory increased by 54, and PE social inventory increased by 10; for PP, the PP delivery product price decreased by 70, PP comprehensive factory inventory increased by 11, and PP social inventory increased by 9 [6]. - **Profit Changes**: L oil - based production profit decreased by 46, L coal - based production profit decreased by 30; PP oil - based production profit decreased by 19, PP coal - based production profit increased by 21, and PDH profit decreased by 134 [6] 2. Charts - **Futures - Spot Price and Basis**: Charts show the futures - spot prices and basis of L and PP from 2023 to 2025 [9][12] - **Warehouse Receipts**: A chart shows the warehouse receipts of L and PP from 2023 to 2025 [15] - **Inventory**: Multiple charts show the comprehensive inventory, social inventory of PE and PP over time [21][24][27][30] - **Operating Rates**: Charts show the operating rates of PE and PP from January to December [33][36] - **Profits**: Charts show the production cash flows of PE (coal - chemical and oil - based) and PP (coal - chemical, oil - based, and PDH) from 2023 to 2025 [39][42] - **External Prices**: Charts show the internal - external price differences of polyolefins, and the US dollar prices of PE and PP over time [45][48][51] - **Downstream**: Charts show the average operating rates of PE and PP downstream industries from January to December [54][57] 3. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the capacity, production, net imports, apparent consumption, etc. of polyethylene are presented, with the capacity expected to reach 4319.5 in 2025E, a growth rate of 20.5% [17] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the capacity, production, net imports, apparent consumption, etc. of polypropylene are presented, with the capacity expected to reach 4906 in 2025E, a growth rate of 11.0% [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, L09 fell 0.27% to close at 7282, with a total position reduction of about 19,900 lots. PP09 fell 0.35% to close at 7078, with a total position reduction of about 1,200 lots. Technically, the recent main contracts of L and PP are running near the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral technical trend. The main position in Dayue's five major indicators shows that the net positions of high - winning - rate seats for L and PP are both bearish recently. The basis of the L main contract is 48, and that of the PP main contract is 172, with the futures price at a discount to the spot price. [5] - From a fundamental perspective, in June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, staying in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May and the same as in April, returning above the critical point. On July 5, OPEC issued an increase production statement, increasing production for the fourth consecutive month. In terms of supply and demand, it is the off - season for PE agricultural films, and the downstream of packaging films remains weak. Most enterprises have reduced their loads, and the overall downstream demand is weak. There is still pressure from the commissioning of new production capacity in the future. It is also the off - season for PP downstream demand, and the demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc. is weak. Recently, there have been signs of relaxation in Sino - US exchanges, and attention should be paid to the negotiation situation. The inventory in the polyolefin industry chain is neutral. It is expected that the main contracts of L and PP will fluctuate this week. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Position Changes**: L09 fell 0.27% to 7282 with a position reduction of about 19,900 lots; PP09 fell 0.35% to 7078 with a position reduction of about 1,200 lots. Other contracts also had corresponding price and position changes. For example, L01 decreased by 0.03% to 7243, and PP05 increased by 0.18% to 7032. [5][6] - **Technical and Position Analysis**: The main contracts of L and PP are running near the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral technical trend. The net positions of high - winning - rate seats for L and PP are both bearish recently. [5] - **Basis Analysis**: The basis of the L main contract is 48, and that of the PP main contract is 172, indicating that the futures price is at a discount to the spot price. [5] 3.2 Spot and Inventory - **Spot Price Changes**: The prices of L and PP delivery products and social inventories have changed. For example, the price of L delivery products increased by 10 to 7330, and the price of PP delivery products remained unchanged at 7250. [6] - **Inventory Changes**: PE comprehensive factory inventory decreased by 0.6 to 50.0, and PE social inventory increased by 42 to 50.7; PP comprehensive factory inventory decreased by 15 to 57.0, and PP social inventory increased by 19 to 25.2. [6] 3.3 Production Profit - **Profit Changes**: The production profits of L and PP from different sources (oil - based, coal - based, PDH) have changed. For example, L oil - based production profit decreased by 242 to - 219, and PP PDH production profit increased by 247 to - 355. [6] 3.4 Supply and Demand Balance - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and other indicators of polyethylene have changed. The production capacity has been increasing year by year, with growth rates ranging from 5.1% to 20.5%. The import dependence has shown a downward trend, from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024. [16] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, etc. of polypropylene have also changed. The production capacity has been increasing, with growth rates between 8.9% and 19.0%. The import dependence has decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024. [18] 3.5 Downstream Market - **PE Downstream**: The average starting rate of PE downstream shows certain fluctuations throughout the year, reflecting the changing demand in the PE downstream market. [53] - **PP Downstream**: The average starting rate of PP downstream also fluctuates, indicating the demand situation in the PP downstream market. [56] 3.6 Other Market Indicators - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of L and PP warehouse receipts shows changes over time, which can reflect the inventory and market supply and demand situation to some extent. [14] - **Opening Rates**: The opening rates of PE and PP production show different trends throughout the year, which are related to production capacity utilization and market supply. [32][35] - **Production Cash Flows**: The production cash flows of PE and PP from different sources (coal - based, oil - based, PDH) show fluctuations over time, reflecting the profitability of different production methods. [38][41] - **External Market Prices**: The internal - external price differences of polyolefins and the US - dollar prices of PE and PP in the external market show corresponding changes, which are affected by international market supply and demand and exchange rates. [44][47][50]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter-period: None [3] Core View of the Report - The macroeconomic boost continues, the commodity atmosphere is slightly pushed up, international oil prices and propane prices have slightly increased, and the cost support for polyolefins has strengthened [2] - Some previously overhauled plants have restarted, leading to higher capacity utilization and increased domestic supply, with Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's 500,000-ton/year PP Line 4 successfully put into production [2] - The terminal industry is still in the off-season, with the agricultural film industry operating at a low level and other terminal industries maintaining weak operations. There are no signs of improvement in downstream demand, and factory operations remain at a low level, intensifying the expected supply-demand contradiction [2] Summary by Relevant Catalog I. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7284元/吨（-4），PP主力合约收盘价为7074元/吨（+2），LL华北现货为7190元/吨（+20），LL华东现货为7300元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为7120元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为-94元/吨（+24），LL华东基差为16元/吨（+4），PP华东基差为46元/吨（-2） [1] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为79.5%（+3.0%），PP开工率为77.4%（-1.9%） [1] - PE油制生产利润为212.3元/吨（-154.6），PP油制生产利润为-207.7元/吨（-154.6），PDH制PP生产利润为243.3元/吨（-10.4） [1] III. Polyolefin Non-standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为-99.6元/吨（-1.2），PP进口利润为-538.3元/吨（-1.3），PP出口利润为28.3美元/吨（+0.2） [1] V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为12.1%（-0.3%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.4%（+0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率为43.2%（-0.4%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.4%（+0.0%） [1] VI. Polyolefin Inventory - No specific data provided in the given text

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily report on the polyolefin industry dated June 25, 2025 [1] Group 2: Research Team - The energy and chemical research team includes Peng Jinglin (polyolefins), Li Jie (crude oil and fuel oil), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Peng Haozhou (urea, industrial silicon), Liu Youran (pulp), and Feng Zeren (glass and soda ash) [2] Group 3: Futures Market Quotes - In the futures market, plastics and PP contracts generally declined. For example, plastic 2601 closed at 7199 yuan/ton, down 158 yuan (-2.15%); plastic 2605 closed at 7182 yuan/ton, down 166 yuan (-2.26%); plastic 2509 closed at 7250 yuan/ton, down 172 yuan (-2.32%); PP2601 closed at 7027 yuan/ton, down 166 yuan (-2.31%); PP2605 closed at 7006 yuan/ton, down 179 yuan (-2.49%); PP2509 closed at 7074 yuan/ton, down 163 yuan (-2.25%) [3] Group 4: Market Review and Outlook - The main plastic contract L2509 opened low, fluctuated downward during the session, and closed down at 7250 yuan/ton, down 172 yuan (-2.32%), with a trading volume of 595,000 lots and a decrease in open interest by 3309 to 474,026 lots. The main PP contract closed at 7074 yuan/ton, down 163 yuan (-2.25%), with a decrease in open interest by 40,075 lots to 448,435 lots. The weak futures market dampened market trading sentiment. On the supply side, there were few new maintenance plans, and the loss of production due to plant maintenance decreased. The 500,000 - ton/year fourth - line of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's PP project was planned to be put into operation on June 19, and domestic supply showed an increasing trend. The downstream industry has entered the traditional off - season, with significantly insufficient new orders. Affected by high - temperature and rainy weather, the construction progress of terminal projects slowed down. With high raw material prices and weak downstream industry profits, the enthusiasm for raw material procurement was difficult to significantly improve. The basis of plastic and PP slightly rebounded but remained low. The easing of the Middle East conflict led to a decline in crude oil premiums, and polyolefins prices fell from high levels. Attention should be paid to changes in cost - side drivers [4] Group 5: Industry News - On June 24, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 780,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons (-3.70%) from the previous working day, compared with 745,000 tons in the same period last year. PE market prices partially declined. In North China, some linear PE prices fell by 20 - 150 yuan/ton, some high - pressure PE prices fell by 50 - 200 yuan/ton, and some low - pressure PE prices fell by 20 - 100 yuan/ton. In East China, some high - pressure PE prices fell by 50 - 200 yuan/ton, some low - pressure PE prices fell by 20 - 100 yuan/ton, and some linear PE prices fell by 20 - 150 yuan/ton. In South China, some linear and low - pressure PE prices fell by 20 - 100 yuan/ton, and some high - pressure PE prices fell by 50 - 200 yuan/ton. The price of LLDPE in North China was 7300 - 7550 yuan/ton, in East China was 7400 - 7800 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7450 - 7750 yuan/ton. PP market prices decreased by 30 - 100 yuan/ton. The volatile decline of futures prices suppressed the trading atmosphere in the market. Most traders' quotes declined, with some resources dropping significantly by 80 - 100 yuan/ton. Downstream orders were poor, and after some previous purchases, most downstream enterprises maintained a cautious wait - and - see attitude, and overall trading was relatively poor. The mainstream price of North China drawn PP in the morning was 7080 - 7230 yuan/ton, in East China was 7130 - 7280 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7160 - 7300 yuan/ton [5]

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Weekly Report - Date: June 20, 2025 - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, L09 rose 2.12% to close at 7415, with a total position reduction of about 7300 lots; PP09 rose 2.11% to close at 7242, with a total position increase of about 53000 lots. Technically, the recent main contracts of L and PP are running above the 20-day moving average, showing a bullish technical trend [5]. - The main position indicator in Dayue's five major indicators shows that the net positions of high - winning - rate seats for L and PP are both bearish recently [5]. - The basis of the L main contract is 45, and that of the PP main contract is 38, with the discount of the futures price narrowing [5]. - Fundamentally, in May, the official PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 from April, while the Caixin PMI was 48.3%, down 2.1 from April, the first contraction since October last year. On June 21, the US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities escalated the Middle East geopolitical crisis, and crude oil is expected to strengthen, which is positive for the cost side. In terms of supply and demand, it is the off - season for PE agricultural films, the demand for packaging films is weakening, most enterprises are reducing their loads, and the overall downstream demand is weak. There is still pressure from new capacity coming on stream in the future. It is also the off - season for PP downstream demand, and the demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc. is weak. The inventory of the polyolefin industry chain is neutral. This week, the main contracts of L and PP are expected to fluctuate [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Prices and Changes**: L01 rose 1.61% to 7347, L05 rose 1.58% to 7334, L09 rose 2.12% to 7415; PP01 rose 2.13% to 7188, PP05 rose 2.35% to 7185, PP09 rose 2.11% to 7242 [6]. - **Spot Prices and Changes**: The price of L delivery products increased by 200 to 7460, and the price of PP delivery products increased by 30 to 7280 [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the L main contract is 45, and that of the PP main contract is 38, with the discount of the futures price narrowing [5] 3.2 Inventory - **Warehouse Receipts**: The report provides a chart of L and PP warehouse receipts, but specific data is not further elaborated [15] - **Inventory Data**: PE comprehensive factory inventory is 556 (a decrease of 13), PE social inventory is 559 (a decrease of 27), PP comprehensive factory inventory is 608 (an increase of 26), and PP social inventory is 245 (an increase of 9) [6] 3.3 Supply - Demand Balance - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, with the import dependence gradually decreasing. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [17] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also showed an upward trend, with the import dependence gradually decreasing. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [19] 3.4 Other Indicators - **开工率**: The report provides charts of PE and PP开工 rates, but specific data is not further elaborated [33][36] - **Profit**: The report provides charts of PE and PP production cash flows, including coal - chemical, oil - based, and PDH production methods, but specific data is not further elaborated [39][41] - **External Market Prices**: The report provides charts of polyolefin internal - external price differences, as well as the US dollar prices of PE and PP, but specific data is not further elaborated [44][47][50] - **Downstream**: The report provides charts of the average downstream开工 rates of PE and PP, but specific data is not further elaborated [53][56]

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货聚烯烃周报 成本端支撑增强，聚烯烃价格重心或上移 20250622 萧勇辉 交易咨询号：Z0019917 从业资格号：F03091536 0769-22110802 审核：陈小国，从业资格号:F03100622，交易咨询号：Z0021111 周度观点及策略 周度观点 ◆ 库存：据隆众资讯统计：本周，聚乙烯生产企业样本库存量预计：51万吨左右，库存预计由跌转涨，主因市场价格连续推涨， 下游工厂抵触高价，采购有放缓预期；中国聚丙烯生产企业库存量预计：59万吨左右，较本期下降，现货市场偏强运行，下游 存一定刚需消耗，因此预计生产企业库存窄幅下降。 ◆ 供应：据隆众资讯统计：本周，涉及中天合创等检修装置重启，新增浙江石化等计划检修装置，预计总产量在60.89万吨，总产 量环比-0.40万吨；中国聚丙烯总产量预估：78万吨，继续增加，延续上升趋势。 ◆ 需求：据隆众资讯统计：预计PE下游各行业整体开工率变化不大，企业下游有少量新单跟进，但下游终端备货意愿有所增强， 市场交投氛围有所好转；聚丙烯消费因进入季节性消费淡季持续转弱。 ◆ 产业链利润：油制PE与PP ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-06-06 策略 单边：塑料谨慎偏空。 跨期：无。 成本端支撑松动，聚烯烃窄幅震荡 市场分析 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7034元/吨（-15），PP主力合约收盘价为6911元/吨（-37），LL华北现货为7090 元/吨（+20），LL华东现货为7100元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为7080元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为56元/吨（+35），LL 华东基差为66元/吨（+15）， PP华东基差为169元/吨（+37）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为77.4%（+0.6%），PP开工率为77.0%（+1.6%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为322.1元/吨（+68.1），PP油制生产利润为62.1元/吨（+68.1），PDH制PP生产利润 为-231.6元/吨（-28.6）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-322.9元/吨（+55.3），PP进口利润为-516.0元/吨（+12.2），PP出口利润为16.1美元/吨 （-1.5）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为12.9%（-0.1%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.9%（+0.3%），PP下游塑编开工率 为44.7%（- ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-06-05 供需双弱，成本端支持 市场分析 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7049元/吨（+86），PP主力合约收盘价为6948元/吨（+64），LL华北现货为7070 元/吨（+20），LL华东现货为7100元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为7080元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为21元/吨（-66），LL 华东基差为51元/吨（-86）， PP华东基差为132元/吨（-64）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为76.8%（-1.2%），PP开工率为75.4%（-1.4%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为254.0元/吨（-143.7），PP油制生产利润为-6.0元/吨（-143.7），PDH制PP生产利 润为-203.0元/吨（+198.7）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-378.2元/吨（-14.3），PP进口利润为-528.2元/吨（+5.4），PP出口利润为17.6美元/吨（-0.7）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为13.0%（-1.1%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.6%（-0.6%），PP下游塑编开工率 为45.2%（-0.5%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为59.8% ...

价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7221元/吨（-1），PP主力合约收盘价为7054元/吨（+7），LL华北现货为7320 元/吨（-30），LL华东现货为7400元/吨（-20），PP华东现货为7180元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为99元/吨（-29），LL 华东基差为179元/吨（-19）， PP华东基差为126元/吨（-7）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为79.4%（-4.7%），PP开工率为76.6%（-3.2%）。 聚烯烃日报 | 2025-05-22 市场成交放缓，聚烯烃盘面走低 市场分析 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为578.3元/吨（+9.2），PP油制生产利润为98.3元/吨（+9.2），PDH制PP生产利润为 -281.3元/吨（+34.6）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-78.9元/吨（-4.4），PP进口利润为-536.1元/吨（-4.6），PP出口利润为22.9美元/吨（+0.5）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为16.7%（-2.8%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.7%（+1.1%），PP下游塑编开工率 为45.3%（+0.5%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为59.9%（+2. ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-05-08 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7046元/吨（+59），PP主力合约收盘价为7029元/吨（+34），LL华北现货为7300 元/吨（-20），LL华东现货为7330元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为7220元/吨（+20），LL华北基差为254元/吨（-79），LL 华东基差为284元/吨（-59）， PP华东基差为191元/吨（-14）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为84.8%（+1.1%），PP开工率为74.4%（-1.1%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为685.1元/吨（+25.9），PP油制生产利润为315.1元/吨（+25.9），PDH制PP生产利 润为-458.2元/吨（+218.8）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-202.3元/吨（-50.0），PP进口利润为-332.3元/吨（+7.8），PP出口利润为29.9美元/吨（+9.7）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为23.4%（-2.7%），PE下游包装膜开工率为47.9%（-1.0%），PP下游塑编开工率 为45.0%（-0.3%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为59.6%（-2.1%）。 关税大幅提 ...