Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The Central Financial and Economic Work Conference determined the economic direction. With the improvement of market sentiment boosted by macro - policies, the polyolefin market stopped falling and rebounded. However, the current weak supply - demand fundamentals provide insufficient support for prices [3]. - For PE, the supply is expected to be loose and the demand is weak, with high inventory pressure and limited oil - based cost support. The short - term fundamentals are difficult to be substantially boosted, and the rebound space is limited [3]. - For PP, the supply is expected to remain high, the demand follow - up is insufficient, the inventory level is high, and the cost support is weakened. The short - term rebound drive is limited, and attention should be paid to cost and supply changes [4]. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价为6557元/吨（+71），PP主力合约收盘价为6254元/吨（+125）；LL华北现货为6500元/吨（+0），LL华东现货为6580元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6200元/吨（+0）；LL华北基差为 - 57元/吨（-71），LL华东基差为23元/吨（-71），PP华东基差为 - 54元/吨（-125） [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率为84.1%（+0.1%），PP开工率为78.3%（+0.7%） [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润为183.5元/吨（-105.5），PP油制生产利润为 - 436.5元/吨（-105.5），PDH制PP生产利润为 - 817.3元/吨（+75.2） [1]. - **Import and Export**: LL进口利润为 - 112.2元/吨（-116.8），PP进口利润为 - 322.4元/吨（-26.9），PP出口利润为 - 10.6美元/吨（+3.4） [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率为46.4%（-1.7%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.6%（-0.6%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.1%（+0.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为62.9%（+0.3%） [2]. Market Analysis - **PE**: Supply side, in December, the overall PE maintenance volume is not high, and the planned maintenance volume in the future is also relatively limited. The PE start - up is expected to continue to rise, and a new 500,000 - ton FDPE device of BASF is expected to be put into operation at the end of the year, so the supply pressure is continuous. Demand side, the overall downstream start - up of PE continues to decline, with the agricultural film start - up entering the off - season, and the demand for packaging film also weakening. Inventory side, although the PE social inventory is decreasing, the absolute inventory levels of LL and LD are still high, and the inventory pressure is expected to be large. Cost side, the oil price trend is weak, and the oil - based cost support is relatively limited [3]. - **PP**: Supply side, the previously shut - down enterprises are gradually restarting, the planned maintenance volume is relatively small, and the supply is expected to remain high. Demand side, the downstream demand start - up of BOPP, plastic weaving, etc. is okay, but the downstream replenishment is cautious. Inventory side, the overall inventory level is still high. Cost side, the international oil price is weak, and the cost support of PDH is weakened. The short - term rebound drive is limited, and attention should be paid to cost and supply changes [4]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Wait and see [5]. - **Inter - period Spread**: Go long on the L05 - 09 inter - period spread when it is low; go long on the PP05 - 09 inter - period spread when it is low [5]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: Short the L05 - PP05 spread when it is high [5].

行业 聚烯烃日报 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 日期 2025 年 12 月 12 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 连塑主力换月至 05，L2605 高开，盘中震荡向下，尾 ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-12-05 聚乙烯下游开工延续走低 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6776元/吨（-32），PP主力合约收盘价为6359元/吨（-23），LL华北现货为6700 元/吨（-50），LL华东现货为6880元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6350元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为-76元/吨（-18），LL 华东基差为104元/吨（+32）， PP华东基差为-9元/吨（+23）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为84.1%（-0.5%），PP开工率为77.6%（-0.5%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为359.7元/吨（-12.1），PP油制生产利润为-410.3元/吨（-12.1），PDH制PP生产利 润为-534.6元/吨（+23.6）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为136.7元/吨（+91.1），PP进口利润为-223.3元/吨（+5.9），PP出口利润为-23.4美元/吨（-0.8）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为48.1%（-0.9%），PE下游包装膜开工率为50.2%（-0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率 为44.1%（+0.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures declined slightly. On the spot market, prices of linear LL and拉丝 PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. Fundamentally, the overall operating rate of downstream demand is high, with demand steadily released. However, market sentiment is still affected by the weakness of crude oil and commodities as a whole. In the short term, the valuation of polyolefins is at a low level, and after the rebound, they generally maintain a low - level oscillation process. Future attention should be paid to marginal consumption, supply, and production scheduling levels [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6776, 6829, and 6867 respectively, down -0.47%, -0.65%, and -0.67% from the day before the previous day. For PP, the corresponding prices were 6359, 6452, and 6482, down -0.36%, -0.40%, and -0.32%. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 210139, 118193, and 1134 respectively. For PP, they were 206027, 87292, and 1646. - **Open Interest**: The open interests of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 386484, 269785, and 4453 respectively, with changes of -16226, 14989, and 180. For PP, they were 450199, 292556, and 17718, with changes of -9702, 10392, and 161. - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -53, -38, and 91 respectively, compared with -66, -39, and 105 previously. For PP, they were -93, -30, and 123, compared with -96, -25, and 121 previously [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2116 yuan/ton, 6065 yuan/ton, 583 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6150 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. - **Mid - stream**: In the LL market, the current prices in East China, North China, and South China were 6850 - 7250 yuan/ton, 6700 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 6900 - 7200 yuan/ton respectively. In the PP market, they were 6250 - 6400 yuan/ton, 6150 - 6300 yuan/ton, and 6300 - 6450 yuan/ton [2] News - On Thursday (December 4), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $59.67 per barrel, up $0.72 or 1.22% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $58.81 - $60.02. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for February 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $63.26 per barrel, up $0.59 or 0.94%, with a trading range of $62.53 - $63.62 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; short-term cost support, limited rebound space under weak supply-demand pattern, likely to fluctuate in the bottom range [4] - Inter-period: LL01 - 05 sell high and buy low; PP01 - 05 sell high and buy low [4] - Inter-variety: None [4] Core Viewpoints - PE faces supply pressure due to low maintenance, new capacity release, and entering the demand off-season, resulting in a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand, with limited short-term rebound space [2] - PP has a short-term weak supply-demand situation, with supply pressure from existing devices and insufficient demand follow - up. The expected rebound height of the futures market is limited, and attention should be paid to cost disturbances [3] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Figures display plastic and polypropylene main contracts and LL East China basis [11][8] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE production profit (crude oil), PE capacity utilization rate, PP production profit (crude oil), PP production profit (PDH method), polypropylene capacity utilization rate, and PP weekly output are presented [16][19][25] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - HD injection - LL East China, HD blow - molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt co - polymer - drawn wire East China, and PP homopolymer injection - drawn wire East China price differences are shown [6][29][32] 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL and PP import and export profits, as well as price differences between overseas regions and China, are provided [37][41][57] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE downstream agricultural film, packaging film, and winding film operating rates, PP downstream plastic weaving, BOPP, and injection molding operating rates, and PP downstream plastic weaving and BOPP production gross margins are presented [58][63][70] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - PE and PP inventory in oil - based enterprises, coal - chemical enterprises, traders, and ports are shown [72][77][81]

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-12-03 供需弱势压制反弹空间 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6831元/吨（+28），PP主力合约收盘价为6410元/吨（+13），LL华北现货为6750 元/吨（+0），LL华东现货为6880元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6350元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为-81元/吨（-28），LL 华东基差为49元/吨（-28）， PP华东基差为-60元/吨（-13）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为84.5%（+1.8%），PP开工率为78.1%（-0.1%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为316.1元/吨（+4.5），PP油制生产利润为-453.9元/吨（+4.5），PDH制PP生产利润 为-596.6元/吨（-35.0）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为44.1元/吨（+3.0），PP进口利润为-230.6元/吨（+2.9），PP出口利润为-22.4美元/吨（-0.4）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为49.0%（-0.9%），PE下游包装膜开工率为50.7%（-0.2%），PP下游塑编开工率 为44.1%（-0.1%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为62.6% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures have returned to a weak trend. Although the overall operating rate of the downstream demand side is at a high level and demand is steadily released, market sentiment is still affected by the weakness of crude oil and commodities as a whole. In the short term, the valuation of polyolefins themselves is at a low level, and the market may continue to fluctuate at a low level in the future [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Linear Low - Density Polyethylene (LL) - **Price Changes**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6707, 6768, and 6812 respectively, down 55, 52, and 43 from the prices two days ago, with declines of -0.81%, -0.76%, and -0.63% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes were 396126, 147085, and 1807 respectively, and the open interests were 497599, 221698, and 3858 respectively. The changes in open interest were +9240, +22622, and +574 [2] - **Spreads**: The spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -61, -44, and 105 respectively, compared with -58, -35, and 93 previously [2] Polypropylene (PP) - **Price Changes**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6265, 6367, and 6430 respectively, down 52, 53, and 48 from the prices two days ago, with declines of -0.82%, -0.83%, and -0.74% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes were 442760, 138529, and 3752 respectively, and the open interests were 586572, 243957, and 11593 respectively. The changes in open interest were -19187, +35651, and +1074 [2] - **Spreads**: The spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -102, -63, and 165 respectively, compared with -103, -58, and 161 previously [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market Raw Materials - **Prices**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and plastic film were 2098 yuan/ton, 6075 yuan/ton, 564 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6140 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively, compared with 2071 yuan/ton, 6025 yuan/ton, 561 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6160 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton previously [2] Spot Market - **LL**: The current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6900 - 7350 yuan/ton, 6700 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 7000 - 7350 yuan/ton respectively, remaining the same as before except for a slight change in the South China market's upper - limit price [2] - **PP**: The current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6250 - 6450 yuan/ton, 6150 - 6350 yuan/ton, and 6350 - 6550 yuan/ton respectively, remaining unchanged from before [2] Consumption Information - On Wednesday (November 26), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $58.65 per barrel, up $0.70 from the previous trading day, a 1.21% increase, with a trading range of $57.66 - $58.72. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for January 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $63.13 per barrel, up $0.65 from the previous trading day, a 1.04% increase, with a trading range of $62.11 - $63.20 [2]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-11-27 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，10月份，官方PMI为49，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气度有所 回落。10 月 30 日，中美两国领导人在韩国釜山举行面对面会晤，美方取消针对中国商品的部 分限制措施，暂停对华海事、物流等领域 301 调查措施一年，中方同步调整反制措施，OPEC + 11 月12日将原油市场供不应求调整为供过于求，引发油价下跌。供需端，农膜需求有所回落， 其余膜类以刚需为主。当前LL交割品现货价6810（-30），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差103，升贴水比例1.5%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存55.4万吨（-2.5），偏空； ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sharp decline in oil prices has weakened the cost - side support. For PE, there is supply pressure due to the release of new production capacity and the approaching of the demand off - season, while for PP, the supply - demand situation remains weak in the short term, and the cost - side support shows different trends for different production methods [1][2] - The recommended strategies are to cautiously sell short LLDPE for hedging, maintain a neutral stance on PP, conduct reverse arbitrage on L01 - 05 and PP01 - 05 when prices are high, and there is no cross - variety strategy [3] 3. Summaries According to Different Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Price and basis: L main contract closed at 6762 yuan/ton (- 31), PP main contract at 6317 yuan/ton (- 55), LL North China spot at 6800 yuan/ton (+ 0), LL East China spot at 6900 yuan/ton (+ 0), PP East China spot at 6360 yuan/ton (- 20), LL North China basis at 38 yuan/ton (+ 31), LL East China basis at 138 yuan/ton (+ 31), PP East China basis at 43 yuan/ton (+ 35) [1] - Upstream supply: PE operating rate was 82.7% (- 0.4%), PP operating rate was 78.3% (- 1.3%) [1] - Production profit: PE oil - based production profit was 296.4 yuan/ton (- 54.1), PP oil - based production profit was - 463.6 yuan/ton (- 54.1), PDH - based PP production profit was - 414.4 yuan/ton (- 21.4) [1] - Imports and exports: LL import profit was - 11.1 yuan/ton (+ 10.3), PP import profit was - 231.8 yuan/ton (- 10.1), PP export profit was 2.8 US dollars/ton (+ 1.2) [1] - Downstream demand: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 49.9% (- 0.1%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 50.9% (+ 0.5%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 44.2% (+ 0.0%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 62.6% (+ 0.0%) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - PE: Supply - side device maintenance has increased slightly, but new production capacity is being released, and demand is entering the off - season. Cost - side support from oil - based production has weakened due to the decline in oil prices [2] - PP: The supply - demand situation remains weak in the short term. Although maintenance devices have increased, it has limited impact on the oversupply situation. Demand is also weakening, and the cost - side support for oil - based production has weakened while that for PDH has strengthened [2] 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously sell short LLDPE for hedging, neutral on PP [3] - Inter - period: Reverse arbitrage on L01 - 05 and PP01 - 05 when prices are high [3] - Cross - variety: None [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Polyolefin futures rebounded slightly. Spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. The overall operating rate of the downstream demand side is at a high level, with demand steadily released. However, market sentiment is still affected by the weakness of crude oil and the overall commodity market. In the short term, the self - valuation of polyolefins is at a low level, and the market may continue the low - level oscillation trend in the future [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Change**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6793, 6845, and 6880 respectively, with price increases of 23, 14, and 3 and percentage increases of 0.34%, 0.20%, and 0.04% respectively. For PP, the corresponding closing prices were 6372, 6474, and 6519, with price increases of 15, 0, and 2 and percentage increases of 0.24%, 0.00%, and 0.03% respectively [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 334461, 107016, and 1244 respectively, and the open interests were 497429, 176591, and 2688 respectively, with open interest changes of - 15317, 25839, and 129 respectively. For PP, the trading volumes were 374416, 95707, and 1999 respectively, and the open interests were 605178, 183032, and 10073 respectively, with open interest changes of - 21657, 21079, and 206 respectively [2] - **Spread**: The current spreads of LL for January - May, May - September, and September - January are - 52, - 35, and 87 respectively, compared with previous values of - 61, - 46, and 107. For PP, the current spreads are - 102, - 45, and 147 respectively, compared with previous values of - 117, - 43, and 160 [2] Spot Market - **Raw Materials and Products**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film are 2082 yuan/ton, 5925 yuan/ton, 561 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6160 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively, with some price changes compared to the previous values [2] - **Mid - stream**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6900 - 7350 yuan/ton, 6800 - 7050 yuan/ton, and 7000 - 7400 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the ranges are 6250 - 6450 yuan/ton, 6150 - 6350 yuan/ton, and 6350 - 6550 yuan/ton respectively, with some price changes compared to the previous values [2] Consumption Information - On Monday (November 24), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $58.84 per barrel, up $0.78 or 1.34% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $57.42 - $59.06. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for January 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $63.37 per barrel, up $0.81 or 1.29% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.94 - $63.56 [2]