Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: January 7, 2026 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market has a strong bullish sentiment, and the chemical sector started in the afternoon. Plastics and PP were boosted to rise. However, considering the supply recovery, the entry of demand into the off - season inventory digestion cycle, and the unchanged oversupply pattern of crude oil due to overseas geopolitical conflicts, the rebound of polyolefins should be treated bearishly [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - The market had a bullish atmosphere, and the chemical sector rose in the afternoon, driving plastics and PP up. L2605 opened lower, fluctuated higher during the session, and closed up at 6,579 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton (1.31%), with a trading volume of 458,000 lots and a decrease of 1,038 lots in positions to 507,885 lots. PP2605 closed at 6,423 yuan/ton, up 69 yuan, a gain of 1.09%, and the positions increased by 13,100 lots to 521,600 lots. The supply pressure increased month - on - month due to the decline in maintenance losses during the new capacity window period, and the demand was weak due to the seasonal off - season [6]. 2. Industry News - On January 6, 2026, the inventory level of major producers was 690,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons (2.82%) from the previous working day, compared with 590,000 tons in the same period last year. - PE market prices partially declined. LLDPE prices in North China were 6,300 - 6,500 yuan/ton, in East China were 6,380 - 6,800 yuan/ton, and in South China were 6,500 - 6,800 yuan/ton. - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily referred to as 5,730 - 5,820 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The demand for propylene was fair, and the production enterprises had smooth shipments. - The PP market rose slightly. The mainstream price of North China drawstrings was 6,080 - 6,200 yuan/ton, in East China was 6,150 - 6,350 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6,140 - 6,400 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventories, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources mainly from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [9][12][17]

Report Overview - The report is a polyolefin morning report dated January 5, 2026, focusing on LLDPE and PP [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to be volatile today, with both facing an oversupply situation, neutral industry inventories, and weak downstream demand [4][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In December, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range after 8 months. OPEC+ decided to maintain the November 2025 production plan and suspend production increases in February and March 2026. The US military's actions in Venezuela are expected to have limited impact on domestic crude oil and chemical products. The demand for agricultural films is continuously weak, and packaging film enterprises mainly purchase on demand. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 6350 (+10), with overall neutral fundamentals [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is -122, with a premium - discount ratio of -1.9%, indicating a bearish outlook [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 39.8 million tons (-9.3), which is neutral [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish signal [4] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, indicating a bullish trend [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile today, with an oversupply situation in the fundamentals, neutral industry inventory, and weak downstream demand [4] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE in the macro - aspect. The PDH maintenance rate has started to increase. The demand for plastic woven products is mainly based on rigid demand, and the demand for pipes has generally declined. The current PP delivery product spot price is 6270 (+20), with overall neutral fundamentals [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is -78, with a premium - discount ratio of -1.2%, indicating a bearish outlook [7] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 49.1 million tons (-4.3), which is neutral [7] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral signal [7] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, indicating a bearish trend [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to rebound and be volatile today, with an oversupply situation in the fundamentals, neutral industry inventory, weak downstream demand, and an increasing PDH maintenance rate [7] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have generally shown an upward trend, while the import dependence has gradually decreased. The production capacity in 2025E is expected to be 4319.5 [14] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also generally increased, and the import dependence has decreased. The production capacity in 2025E is expected to be 4906 [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term sentiment boost drives the polyolefin market to stop falling and rebound, but the change in the supply - demand fundamentals is still limited. - For PE, the supply pressure increases due to new device production, limited new planned maintenance, and expected increase in low - cost imported goods, while the demand remains weak, and there is still pressure on price and inventory removal. - For PP, although there is an expectation of supply reduction and cost support, the short - term rebound depends on whether the scale of device maintenance can increase, and the price increase space is limited due to insufficient demand improvement. - Suggested strategies include short - term cautious short - selling hedging for LLDPE, waiting and seeing for PP, and specific operations for cross - period and cross - variety spread trading [3][5][7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价6472元/吨（+11）, PP主力合约收盘价6348元/吨（+27）. LL华北现货6300元/吨（+0）, LL华东现货6450元/吨（+50）, PP华东现货6160元/吨（+0）. LL华北基差 - 172元/吨（+9）, LL华东基差 - 72元/吨（ - 11）, PP华东基差 - 188元/吨（ - 17） [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE上月产量301万吨（+12）, LLDPE产量143万吨（+9）, PE开工率84%（+0%）; PP上月产量356万吨（+9）, PP开工率77%（ - 3%） [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润64.5元/吨（+78.3）, PP油制生产利润 - 415.5元/吨（+78.3）, PDH制PP生产利润 - 828.8元/吨（ - 35.7） [1]. - **Import and Export**: PE11月进口量106万吨（+5）, 11月出口量9万吨（+0）; PP11月进口量30万吨（+3）, 11月出口量26万吨（+2）. LL进口利润99.3元/吨（ - 2.5）, PP进口利润 - 351.2元/吨（+7.4）, PP出口利润 - 22.4美元/吨（ - 0.9） [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率45%（ - 5%）, PE下游包装膜开工率49%（ - 2%）, PP下游塑编开工率44%（+0%）, PP下游BOPP膜开工率63%（+0%） [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Polyethylene (PE) - **Price Spread**: In early December, the price dropped due to supply and demand issues. In late December, it rebounded slightly, but the supply - demand contradiction remains, and the short - term rebound drive is limited [3]. - **Supply**: Only a new 50 - million - ton/year FDPE device of Zhanjiang BASF was put into production in December. In 2026, the new production slows down, with a capacity growth rate of 11.9%. There is a new production vacuum period in Q1. The planned maintenance in January is limited, and the import window is open again, increasing supply pressure. Some devices may switch production [3]. - **Import and Export**: In November, the import volume was 106.22 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.93% and a month - on - month increase of 5.04%. The import window reopened in December, and the expected increase in low - cost imported goods may impact domestic supply [4]. - **Demand**: In the off - season, the overall downstream PE开工 continues to decline. The demand for agricultural films and packaging films is weak, and the demand support remains weak [4]. - **Inventory**: After the festival, the inventory accumulates. The inventory removal of each link in the industrial chain may slow down, and there is still inventory accumulation pressure around the Spring Festival [5]. 3.2.2 Polypropylene (PP) - **Price Spread**: In early December, the price dropped due to supply - demand imbalance. Near the end of the month, it rebounded, but the rebound height depends on whether the device maintenance can be realized [6]. - **Supply**: No new device was put into production in December. Only a 15 - million - ton external - propylene - purchasing PP device of Huizhou Lituo is expected to be put into production in Q1 2026, but there is uncertainty. The profit pressure may lead to more device maintenance [6]. - **Import and Export**: In November 2025, the import volume was 30.49 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.64%, and the export volume was 25.74 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.49%. The import window is not open, and the export may increase [7]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream开工 is weak, except for BOPP. The policy in 2026 is beneficial to demand, but the overall support is limited [7]. - **Inventory**: The upstream inventory pressure exists, and the inventory removal of each link is not smooth. There is still inventory removal pressure due to limited demand [7]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - side**: Cautiously short - sell and hedge for LLDPE at high prices; wait and see for PP, and pay attention to device maintenance and cost disturbances [8]. - **Cross - period**: Do reverse spreads for L05 - 09 contract spreads at high prices [8]. - **Cross - variety**: Do short - selling operations for the long - term L - PP spread at high prices [8]. 3.4 Polyolefin Basis Strategy - **PE Basis Strategy**: The 05 contract basis of LLDPE continues to weaken. In January, the basis may fluctuate weakly in the range of - 100 to - 200. It is recommended to do reverse spreads for L05 - 09 spreads at high prices [13]. - **PP Basis Strategy**: The 05 contract basis of PP fluctuates weakly in the range of - 130 to - 210. The basis may continue to fluctuate. Pay attention to the realization of device maintenance, and the month - spread fluctuates within a range [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The production profit of polyolefins is poor, but there is support at the cost - end. The capacity production is strong, with the operating rate higher than last year and the output significantly exceeding that of last year, leading to great pressure on the supply side. The downstream operating rate remains at a relatively low level overall, and the off - peak season atmosphere is strong, resulting in weak demand. Polyolefins maintain a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Technically, they rebound after reaching the bottom. In the short term, polyolefins may fluctuate mainly. For futures and options strategies, for futures on a single - side basis, reduce or exit short positions; for options, sell straddle options [9]. - For PP, it is recommended to short. As of December 25, the price is in a downward trend at 6266. The logic is that the new PP capacity is large, and downstream demand is weak, so the medium - to - long - term trend of PP is relatively weak. It is also recommended to reduce or exit short positions [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Overview - **Inventory**: According to Longzhong Information, the expected inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises this week is about 440,000 tons, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline. The expected inventory of Chinese polypropylene production enterprises is about 510,000 tons, which is lower than the current period, and the polypropylene market continues to decline [8]. - **Supply**: According to Longzhong Information, this week, plants including Yangzi Petrochemical, Sino - Korean Petrochemical, and Maoming Petrochemical are planned to restart, and with no new planned maintenance plants, the expected total output for the next period is 704,900 tons, an increase of 32,700 tons compared to the current total output. The estimated total output of Chinese polypropylene is 795,000 tons, showing a narrow increase this week and a change from a downward to an upward trend [8]. - **Demand**: According to Longzhong Information, this week, the overall operating rate of PE downstream industries has slightly decreased, and export orders have shown weak growth. After the e - commerce activities ended, the supermarket channel has entered the de - stocking stage. The operating rate of PP downstream is on a downward trend [8]. - **Industrial Chain Profit**: The losses of oil - based PE and PP production profits have widened. The production of ethylene - based PE and propylene - based PP are in a state of loss, and the losses of PDH - based PP production have also widened. There is support at the cost - end [8]. 3.2 Production Profit - **PE Production Profit**: The losses of LLDPE oil - based and ethylene - based production profits are shown in relevant charts, indicating a poor profit situation [32][35]. - **PP Production Profit**: The losses of PP oil - based, propylene - based, PDH - based, and coal - based production profits are shown in relevant charts, with an overall poor profit situation [37][39][42]. - **PE/PP Import and Export Profit**: The import and export profit situations of LLDPE and PP are shown in relevant charts, with varying degrees of losses [44][46][48]. 3.3 Inventory - **PE Inventory**: Charts show the inventory of PE production enterprises, traders, social inventory, and coal - based inventory, with the overall expected inventory decline [52][55]. - **PP Inventory**: Charts show the inventory of PP production enterprises, traders, port inventory, and coal - based inventory, with the inventory of production enterprises expected to decline [58][60]. 3.4 Supply Side - **PE Output**: The weekly output, operating rate, and maintenance loss volume of PE are shown in relevant charts. The plastic production capacity has maintained high - speed growth in the past five years, with an average annual capacity growth rate of 12%. In 2025, the new capacity is 5.43 million tons, and the capacity base has increased to 41.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. In 2026, the planned PE production capacity is 9.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.45%, but considering the poor production profit, the actual production volume may be about half [68][70][89]. - **PP Output**: The weekly output, operating rate, and maintenance loss volume of PP are shown in relevant charts. PP production capacity has maintained high - speed growth in the past five years, with an average annual capacity growth rate of 11%. In 2025, China's PP realized capacity is about 4.555 million tons, and the capacity base has increased to 49.165 million tons, a 10.2% increase compared to 2024. In 2026, the planned PP production capacity is 9.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.1%, but considering the poor production profit, the actual production volume may be about half [75][77][95]. - **PE and PP Imports**: Charts show the import volumes of PE and PP [83]. 3.5 Demand Side - **PE/PP Downstream Operating Rate**: Charts show the operating rates of PE and PP downstream industries, with the overall operating rate of PE downstream industries slightly decreasing and the operating rate of PP downstream on a downward trend [105]. - **PE Downstream Operating Rate**: Charts show the operating rates of agricultural film, packaging film, hollow products, and PE pipes, with a general decline [109]. - **PP Downstream Operating Rate**: Charts show the operating rates of plastic weaving, BOPP, injection molding, and PP pipes, with a downward trend [118][120]. - **PE/PP Exports**: Charts show the export volumes of PE and PP [123]. - **Plastic Products**: Charts show the production volume of plastic products, the inventory of the rubber and plastic products industry, the year - on - year monthly production of automobiles and household appliances, the export volume of household appliances, the domestic automobile production, and China's automobile exports [127][128][133].

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: December 23, 2025 [2] - Author: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today due to weak fundamentals, oversupply, neutral industrial inventories, and weakening downstream demand [4][6] Summary by Section LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In November, the official PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 points from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November, increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspending the increase from January to March 2026. Coal prices have fallen, and coal - based profits have stabilized. The demand for agricultural films is gradually weakening, and packaging film orders have declined after the peak season. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6,250 (-130), with overall bearish fundamentals [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is 10, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.2%, which is neutral [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 523,000 tons (+15,000), which is bearish [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract has turned long, which is bullish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is weak, with oversupply in the fundamentals, neutral industrial inventories, and weakening downstream demand. It is expected to show a volatile trend today [4] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support [5] - **Negative Factors**: Weak downstream demand year - on - year and more new production capacity in the fourth quarter [5] - **Main Logic**: Oversupply and domestic macro - policies [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In November, the official PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 points from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November, increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspending the increase from January to March 2026. Coal prices have fallen, and coal - based profits have stabilized, while PDH profits have continued to decline due to strong propane prices. The plastic weaving industry has entered the off - season, with a decline in order volume, and the demand for pipes has decreased. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6,150 (-30), with overall bearish fundamentals [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is 31, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.5%, which is neutral [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 538,000 tons (+1,000), which is bearish [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract has increased, which is bearish [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is weak, with oversupply in the fundamentals, neutral industrial inventories, and weakening downstream demand. It is expected to show a volatile trend today [6] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support [7] - **Negative Factors**: Weak downstream demand year - on - year and more new production capacity in the fourth quarter [7] - **Main Logic**: Oversupply and domestic macro - policies [7] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing, with a planned 20.5% increase in 2025E. The import dependence has generally shown a downward trend, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing, with an expected 11.0% increase in 2025E. The import dependence has also shown a downward trend, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures stopped falling and rebounded. On the spot side, linear LL prices from Sinopec remained stable, while some prices from PetroChina were lowered by 150. For拉丝 PP, prices from both Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. Fundamentally, the overall operating rate of the downstream demand side seems to have reached its peak, and demand is steadily being released. Previously, the market was driven down by the weakness of crude oil and the overall commodity market, leading to a lower valuation of polyolefins. In the short term, attention should be paid to whether the cost represented by crude oil can stop falling, the pace of digestion of upstream supply and demand, and the future domestic consumption potential [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of LL for January, May, and September were 6522, 6557, and 6583 respectively, with increases of 46 (0.71%), 71 (1.09%), and 64 (0.98%) compared to the day before. For PP, the closing prices were 6178, 6254, and 6277, with increases of 49 (0.80%), 86 (1.39%), and 66 (1.06%) [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September were 131615, 458385, and 5952 respectively, and the open interests were 150173, 488788, and 9185. The open interest changes were -33948, 9111, and 310. For PP, the trading volumes were 271855, 478514, and 9946, and the open interests were 219370, 486544, and 24484, with open interest changes of -73814, 43232, and 4180 [2] - **Spreads**: The current spreads of LL for January - May, May - September, and September - January were -35, -26, and 61 respectively, compared to previous values of -10, -33, and 43. For PP, the current spreads were -76, -23, and 99, compared to previous values of -39, -43, and 82 [2] Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2128 yuan/ton, 6065 yuan/ton, 609 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6040 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. The previous prices were 2103 yuan/ton, 6090 yuan/ton, 603 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6000 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton [2] - **Midstream**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6550 - 6850 yuan/ton, 6500 - 6750 yuan/ton, and 6500 - 6900 yuan/ton respectively. The previous price ranges were 6600 - 6900 yuan/ton, 6450 - 6750 (8100 - 8250) yuan/ton, and 6500 - 6900 yuan/ton. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6100 - 6300 yuan/ton, 6050 - 6200 yuan/ton, and 6100 - 6350 yuan/ton respectively, and the previous price ranges were 6100 - 6300 yuan/ton, 6000 - 6150 yuan/ton, and 6100 - 6300 yuan/ton [2] News - On Monday (December 15), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $56.82 per barrel, down $0.62 (1.08%) from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $56.40 - $57.80. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for February 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $60.56 per barrel, down $0.56 (0.92%) from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $60.13 - $61.50 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The Central Financial and Economic Work Conference determined the economic direction. With the improvement of market sentiment boosted by macro - policies, the polyolefin market stopped falling and rebounded. However, the current weak supply - demand fundamentals provide insufficient support for prices [3]. - For PE, the supply is expected to be loose and the demand is weak, with high inventory pressure and limited oil - based cost support. The short - term fundamentals are difficult to be substantially boosted, and the rebound space is limited [3]. - For PP, the supply is expected to remain high, the demand follow - up is insufficient, the inventory level is high, and the cost support is weakened. The short - term rebound drive is limited, and attention should be paid to cost and supply changes [4]. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价为6557元/吨（+71），PP主力合约收盘价为6254元/吨（+125）；LL华北现货为6500元/吨（+0），LL华东现货为6580元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6200元/吨（+0）；LL华北基差为 - 57元/吨（-71），LL华东基差为23元/吨（-71），PP华东基差为 - 54元/吨（-125） [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率为84.1%（+0.1%），PP开工率为78.3%（+0.7%） [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润为183.5元/吨（-105.5），PP油制生产利润为 - 436.5元/吨（-105.5），PDH制PP生产利润为 - 817.3元/吨（+75.2） [1]. - **Import and Export**: LL进口利润为 - 112.2元/吨（-116.8），PP进口利润为 - 322.4元/吨（-26.9），PP出口利润为 - 10.6美元/吨（+3.4） [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率为46.4%（-1.7%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.6%（-0.6%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.1%（+0.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为62.9%（+0.3%） [2]. Market Analysis - **PE**: Supply side, in December, the overall PE maintenance volume is not high, and the planned maintenance volume in the future is also relatively limited. The PE start - up is expected to continue to rise, and a new 500,000 - ton FDPE device of BASF is expected to be put into operation at the end of the year, so the supply pressure is continuous. Demand side, the overall downstream start - up of PE continues to decline, with the agricultural film start - up entering the off - season, and the demand for packaging film also weakening. Inventory side, although the PE social inventory is decreasing, the absolute inventory levels of LL and LD are still high, and the inventory pressure is expected to be large. Cost side, the oil price trend is weak, and the oil - based cost support is relatively limited [3]. - **PP**: Supply side, the previously shut - down enterprises are gradually restarting, the planned maintenance volume is relatively small, and the supply is expected to remain high. Demand side, the downstream demand start - up of BOPP, plastic weaving, etc. is okay, but the downstream replenishment is cautious. Inventory side, the overall inventory level is still high. Cost side, the international oil price is weak, and the cost support of PDH is weakened. The short - term rebound drive is limited, and attention should be paid to cost and supply changes [4]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Wait and see [5]. - **Inter - period Spread**: Go long on the L05 - 09 inter - period spread when it is low; go long on the PP05 - 09 inter - period spread when it is low [5]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: Short the L05 - PP05 spread when it is high [5].

行业 聚烯烃日报 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 日期 2025 年 12 月 12 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 连塑主力换月至 05，L2605 高开，盘中震荡向下，尾 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for single - side trading [4] Core Viewpoints - For PE, the supply pressure persists due to limited planned maintenance and new capacity release, while the demand is in the off - season, resulting in a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand. The short - term rebound space of plastics is limited, and the plastic basis continues to decline [2] - For PP, the weak supply - demand situation continues in the short term, and the basis weakens. The supply pressure mainly comes from existing devices, and the demand follow - up is insufficient. The expected rebound height of the futures market is limited, and attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances, especially propane [3] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The L main contract closed at 6,776 yuan/ton (-32), the PP main contract closed at 6,359 yuan/ton (-23), the LL North China spot was 6,700 yuan/ton (-50), the LL East China spot was 6,880 yuan/ton (+0), the PP East China spot was 6,350 yuan/ton (+0), the LL North China basis was -76 yuan/ton (-18), the LL East China basis was 104 yuan/ton (+32), and the PP East China basis was -9 yuan/ton (+23) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate was 84.1% (-0.5%), and the PP operating rate was 77.6% (-0.5%). The PE oil - based production profit was 359.7 yuan/ton (-12.1), the PP oil - based production profit was -410.3 yuan/ton (-12.1), and the PDH - made PP production profit was -534.6 yuan/ton (+23.6) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - Not mentioned in the provided content 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - The LL import profit was 136.7 yuan/ton (+91.1), the PP import profit was -223.3 yuan/ton (+5.9), and the PP export profit was -23.4 US dollars/ton (-0.8) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 48.1% (-0.9%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 50.2% (-0.5%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 44.1% (+0.0%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 62.6% (+0.0%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - For PE, the LLDPE social inventory increased slightly month - on - month and was relatively high compared with the same period. The upstream is actively de - stocking [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures declined slightly. On the spot market, prices of linear LL and拉丝 PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. Fundamentally, the overall operating rate of downstream demand is high, with demand steadily released. However, market sentiment is still affected by the weakness of crude oil and commodities as a whole. In the short term, the valuation of polyolefins is at a low level, and after the rebound, they generally maintain a low - level oscillation process. Future attention should be paid to marginal consumption, supply, and production scheduling levels [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6776, 6829, and 6867 respectively, down -0.47%, -0.65%, and -0.67% from the day before the previous day. For PP, the corresponding prices were 6359, 6452, and 6482, down -0.36%, -0.40%, and -0.32%. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 210139, 118193, and 1134 respectively. For PP, they were 206027, 87292, and 1646. - **Open Interest**: The open interests of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 386484, 269785, and 4453 respectively, with changes of -16226, 14989, and 180. For PP, they were 450199, 292556, and 17718, with changes of -9702, 10392, and 161. - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -53, -38, and 91 respectively, compared with -66, -39, and 105 previously. For PP, they were -93, -30, and 123, compared with -96, -25, and 121 previously [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2116 yuan/ton, 6065 yuan/ton, 583 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6150 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. - **Mid - stream**: In the LL market, the current prices in East China, North China, and South China were 6850 - 7250 yuan/ton, 6700 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 6900 - 7200 yuan/ton respectively. In the PP market, they were 6250 - 6400 yuan/ton, 6150 - 6300 yuan/ton, and 6300 - 6450 yuan/ton [2] News - On Thursday (December 4), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $59.67 per barrel, up $0.72 or 1.22% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $58.81 - $60.02. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for February 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $63.26 per barrel, up $0.59 or 0.94%, with a trading range of $62.53 - $63.62 [2]