证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 02 月 25 日 [Table_Title] 半导体 ETF 投资指南 [Table_Title2] ETF 投资手册之二 [Table_Summary] ► 股票型 ETF 是什么产品？ 股票型 ETF 全称是交易型开放式指数基金，其名称刚好对应它 的三个特点："交易型"指该基金份额可在证券交易所内像股 票一样进行买卖，投资者可按市场价格实时交易；"开放式" 意味着基金份额不设固定上限，投资者既可通过券商在二级市 场交易，也可按净值在一级市场进行申购与赎回。"指数基 金"则是该基金采取被动管理策略，其主要目标是紧密跟踪某 一特定指数的表现，而非由基金经理进行主动选股。 ► 股票型 ETF 近年来发展如何？ 2023 年以来股票型 ETF 大幅扩张。绝对水平来看，我国股票型 [Table_Summary] 本篇报告在系统梳理半导体产业链构成的基础上，层层递进地 提出对应半导体 ETF 筛选和分析框架，为 ETF 策略提供参考。 ►半导体产业：主题投资热土，集成电路为先锋 半导体产品包含集成电路、光电器件、分立器件和传感器四 类。从规模上看， ...

报告期内，国家集成电路产业链持续完善，相关行业国产化率、自主可控能力稳步提升，伴随行业的快 速发展，公司电子级磷酸、电子级双氧水等通用湿电子化学品销量增长强劲，高附加值的功能湿电子化 学品新品类持续丰富，整体业绩指标呈现快速增长态势。 格隆汇2月25日丨兴福电子(688545.SH)公布2025年度业绩快报，报告期内，公司实现营业总收入14.75亿 元，同比增长29.72%；实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润2.08亿元，同比增长30.37%；实现归属于母公 司所有者的扣除非经常性损益后的净利润1.98亿元，同比增长25.89%。 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry and Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the semiconductor industry, specifically focusing on storage, PCB (Printed Circuit Board), and AI-related sectors. - Key companies mentioned include C1 Technology, Su Ning International, and various passive component manufacturers. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Investment Recommendations in Storage and PCB Sectors** - The company recommends focusing on the storage sector and upstream PCB components, including copper foil and related equipment, which are expected to see price increases in Q1 2023 [1][2]. - C1 Technology has raised prices in Q4 2022, indicating a positive price trend for the PCB upstream sector [2]. 2. **Focus on Autonomous and Controllable Technologies** - Emphasis on investing in semiconductor equipment, materials, and domestic computing chips, which are seen as critical for future growth [1][3]. - The demand for domestic chips is expected to rise due to increased capital expenditure in the sector [4]. 3. **Opportunities in AI and Testing Sectors** - The second half of 2023 and 2024 presents opportunities in AI testing, with expectations of new product launches from companies like OpenAI [5]. - The performance of Apple and its ecosystem is anticipated to improve, benefiting from the AI advancements [5]. 4. **Passive Components and Market Dynamics** - The rise in prices of high-end products from overseas competitors is expected to create a ripple effect, leading to price increases for A-share companies in the passive components sector [3]. 5. **Cloud Services and Pricing Trends** - The cloud services sector is experiencing price increases driven by demand, with major players like AWS and Google raising prices significantly [16][17]. - The introduction of AI agents is democratizing access to cloud services, allowing non-programmers to utilize these technologies [17]. 6. **Growth in Capex and Network Connectivity** - Continuous growth in capital expenditure (capex) is noted, particularly in network connectivity, with a shift towards optical solutions due to their superior long-term performance [11][12]. 7. **Upcoming Industry Events** - The North American OFC event in March is expected to showcase advancements in NPU and optical module technologies, which could influence market dynamics [15]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - The conference highlights the importance of monitoring market trends and the performance of specific companies within the semiconductor and cloud service sectors, suggesting that investors should remain vigilant for emerging opportunities [4][19]. - The discussion also touches on the competitive landscape of the gaming industry, indicating that companies with strong product pipelines are likely to perform well in upcoming quarters [10]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the semiconductor and cloud service industries.

资料显示，惠州亿纬锂能股份有限公司位于广东省惠州市仲恺高新区惠风七路38号,香港铜锣湾希慎道 33号利园1期19楼1910室，成立日期2001年12月24日，上市日期2009年10月30日，公司主营业务涉及消 费电池(包括锂原电池、小型锂离子电池、三元圆柱电池)和动力电池(包括新能源汽车电池及其电池系 统、储能电池)的研发、生产和销售。主营业务收入构成为：动力电池45.26%，储能电池36.56%，消费 电池18.03%，其他0.16%。 亿纬锂能所属申万行业为：电力设备-电池-锂电池。所属概念板块包括：胎压监测、智能汽车、自主可 控、大盘股、脑科学(脑机接口)等。 2月25日，亿纬锂能（维权）盘中上涨2.00%，截至10:26，报65.77元/股，成交11.02亿元，换手率 0.84%，总市值1364.15亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流入6184.45万元，特大单买入1.43亿元，占比12.98%，卖出1.20亿元，占比 10.89%；大单买入3.19亿元，占比28.92%，卖出2.80亿元，占比25.40%。 亿纬锂能今年以来股价涨0.02%，近5个交易日涨3.79%，近20日跌0.38%，近60日跌 ...

创业板50ETF国泰（159375）跟踪的是创业板50指数（399673），单日涨跌幅限制达20%，该指数从创 业板市场中选取日均成交额较大的50只证券作为指数样本，以反映知名、市值大且流动性好的企业整体 表现。其成分股主要集中于电力设备及新能源、医药、计算机等高成长性行业，整体呈现出显著的高成 长风格与良好流动性。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 野村东方国际证券指出，在流动性改善带动市场情绪走强的背景下，投资者可以对一季度A股表现给予 更多期待。全球通胀及增长情形，以及地缘局势的日趋紧张将进一步驱动周期商品表现。考虑到"十五 五"规划出台，其中对安全韧性的描述（自主可控的投资加码）、新兴产业的商业化（商业航天卫星、 6G、低空机器人）和货币与财政政策的创新空间有望对A股形成积极影响。投资者或可同步增加对中美 两国自主可控题材的关注度，在中国资产中加大对军贸、创新药、AI基建、商业航天与6G基建、工控/ 办公/AI软件等题材的关注。 ...

Macro Insights - During the Spring Festival, significant overseas events occurred, including heightened tensions in the Middle East leading to a sharp increase in international oil prices, a ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court declaring Trump's IEEPA tariffs illegal, and U.S. inflation data exceeding expectations, which complicates short-term market rate cut predictions [1] - In January, U.S. CPI growth rate unexpectedly declined due to falling food and gasoline prices, with expectations that tariff impacts on inflation are nearing their peak, potentially easing pressure on rate cuts [2] - Financial data at the start of the year showed stable performance, with direct financing growth driven by fiscal measures offsetting weak on-balance-sheet credit growth, and social financing growth remaining above 8% year-on-year [3] Bond Market Insights - The convertible bond market is expected to experience short-term trading opportunities due to calendar effects, but investors should remain cautious of high valuation risks in the medium term [4] - There is a need to address "involution" in competition to prevent unreasonable credit growth, with a preference for stable and realistic credit data over inflated growth figures [5] - The secondary market for publicly listed REITs showed an overall price increase, with the China REITs index closing at 804.77, reflecting a weekly return of 0.32% [6] Banking Sector Insights - In January, loan growth was lower than expected, with corporate loans being the main contributor, while household loan demand may weaken in February due to seasonal factors [10] - Commercial banks reported a net profit of 2.38 trillion yuan in 2025, with a net interest margin growth of 2.3% year-on-year, indicating a gradual improvement in profitability [11] Strategic Metals Insights - The current environment of "de-globalization, stockpiling, and weakening dollar credit" is reminiscent of the 1970s, leading to a positive outlook on the valuation of strategic metals [12] Company-Specific Insights - Huahong Semiconductor's Q4 2025 performance met expectations, with a projected net profit growth of 158% in 2026, supported by high utilization rates and price stability [13] - Lenovo Group's FY26 Q3 revenue increased by 18% year-on-year, with strategic restructuring expected to help its ISG business return to profitability [14] - Budweiser APAC's Q4 2025 revenue was $1.073 billion, with a focus on regaining market share in China, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts for 2026-2027 [15]

Core Insights - The report suggests adopting a "steady first, with growth in mind" approach to maintain gains in the second half of the spring market and to reserve space for future positioning [2][15] - The spring market of 2026 began on December 17, 2025, driven by favorable policies and early capital allocation, leading to a strong performance in the A-share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving 17 consecutive days of gains [9][13] - The convertible bond market experienced rapid growth followed by volatility, with median prices and conversion premiums reaching historical highs, indicating a significant reduction in the safety cushion of bonds [9][10] Market Trends - Historical data from 2017 to 2025 indicates that the market typically experiences a "rise then fall" pattern from the Spring Festival to the National People's Congress (NPC) [13][14] - The report highlights that during the period from the Spring Festival to the NPC, the market is likely to see a "spring surge," with small-cap growth stocks outperforming, particularly in TMT and high-end manufacturing sectors [13][14] - As the NPC approaches, the market may shift towards defensive sectors like pharmaceuticals and utilities, with high valuations in convertible bonds facing potential compression due to stock adjustments [13][14] Investment Strategy - The report recommends a balanced investment strategy, transitioning from aggressive profit-seeking to balancing returns and risks as the market moves into the NPC and Q1 earnings preview phase [15] - It emphasizes the importance of selecting convertible bonds with solid performance and reasonable pricing, while also considering high-quality, high-priced convertible bonds with clear growth prospects [15] - The report identifies sectors such as AI computing, semiconductors, non-ferrous metals, and post-cycle industries like consumption and real estate as favorable for convertible bonds due to improving supply-demand dynamics and favorable policy catalysts [15]

t 31 - 11 - 1 Friday of Special A JUDD 深圳商报·读创客户端记者 钟国斌 马年初八将迎来A股首个交易日，A股市场将如何运行？招商证券首席策略分析师张夏接受记者采访时表示，马年A股慢牛行情有望延续。"2026年上市公司 盈利增速有望进一步回升，预测非金融及两油A股上市公司2026年有望实现5%至10%的温和增长，盈利增速将会对A股市场上行产生关键动力。"他分析指 出，2026年A股整体仍处在盈利增速回升和估值温和扩张的阶段，预计上证指数上涨幅度介于10%至15%之间。 "A股本轮上行周期正从流动性驱动、赛道股占优的'牛市第二阶段'，向以盈利改善为驱动力的'牛市第三阶段'过渡。关键观察变量是PPI的触底回升，这通常 标志着企业盈利实质性改善"。张夏表示，在此过渡期内，市场风格将趋于均衡。 2026年以来，A股日均成交额保持在2万亿元上方。张夏认为，在A股过去两年有较好赚钱效应以及整体中高回报率资产荒的背景下，2026年A股资金供需有 望延续较大规模净流入，或达1.56万亿元，为实现慢牛带来流动性支持。 具体来看，资金供给端，公募基金将延续发行回暖趋势，如果能够有效突破扭亏阻力 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guohai Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Huahong Semiconductor (01347), optimistic about the company's growth in wafer volume and price under the "China for China" trend, with improved profitability and valuation from quality asset injections [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, the company achieved revenue of $660 million, a quarter-over-quarter increase of 3.9% and a year-over-year increase of 22.4% [2][3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was $17 million, a decrease of 32.2% quarter-over-quarter, compared to a net loss of $25 million in the same period last year [2][3] - The wafer shipment volume was 1.45 million equivalent eight-inch wafers, with a capacity utilization rate of 103.8% [2][3] Group 2: Margin and Cost Structure - The gross margin for Q4 2025 was 13.0%, down 0.5 percentage points quarter-over-quarter but up 1.6 percentage points year-over-year, primarily due to ASP optimization and cost reduction efforts [3] - The company expects gross margin for Q1 2026 to be between 13% and 15%, with market expectations at 13.2% [4] Group 3: Future Guidance - For Q1 2026, the company anticipates revenue between $650 million and $660 million, which is below market expectations of $695 million [4] - The company expects significant capacity growth in 2027, with the new Fab9B expected to start equipment installation in October 2026 [4] Group 4: Market Trends and Product Demand - The demand for embedded non-volatile memory increased by 31.3% year-over-year, driven by the demand for MCU and smart card chips [3] - The revenue from standalone non-volatile memory grew by 22.9% year-over-year, supported by strong demand for flash products [3] - The power management chip segment showed robust growth, with a year-over-year increase of 40.7% in Q4 2025 [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Hold" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes three main lines of focus in technology as outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan": computing power, self-control, and AI applications [6][14] - The computing power revolution is expected to create opportunities across the industry chain, with significant capital expenditure growth from North American cloud providers [16][20] - The domestic production of analog chips is accelerating, with China being the largest consumer market, accounting for over 40% of the global market [7][24] - AI is driving potential growth in consumer electronics, with System on Chip (SoC) technology becoming increasingly integrated into various applications [26][27] Summary by Sections 1. "14th Five-Year Plan" and Technology Focus - The "14th Five-Year Plan" suggests fostering emerging industries and accelerating technological self-reliance, focusing on three main lines: computing power, self-control, and AI applications [6][14] 2. Computing Power: Opportunities from the Revolution - North American cloud providers are significantly increasing capital expenditures, with Google expected to double its spending to between $175 billion and $185 billion in 2026 [16] - Microsoft reported a record capital expenditure of $37.5 billion in a single quarter, primarily to enhance AI capabilities [16] - Amazon's capital expenditure is projected to reach $200 billion in 2026, driven by strong demand in AI and related technologies [17] 3. Self-Control: Acceleration of Domestic Analog Chip Production - The global market for analog chips is steadily expanding, with China being the largest consumer market [7][24] - The current domestic production rate for analog chips is about 20%, indicating significant room for growth [24] 4. AI Applications: Empowering Consumer Electronics Growth - AI technology is becoming a crucial component of SoC architecture, enhancing smart processing capabilities across various sectors [26] - The demand for CMOS Image Sensors (CIS) is recovering, with potential for domestic alternatives to emerge [27] - ODM manufacturers are gaining competitive advantages by leveraging capital investments and technological advancements in various fields [27]